... increasehasbeennotable,72Thisisnottodenysuccessfuleffortsbyanumber of countries,includingChina,toexpandmarketsinotherEME’s. Of coursethisstillleaves the broaderquestion ofthe robustness ofthe totality of thosemarketsin the event of aseriousdownturnin the AME’s.73ThisproblemisanalogoustothatfacedbyJapanesecorporationsin the 1990’s,aftermanyyears of debtfinancedinvestmentwhichprovedunprofitable.Koo(2003)stronglycontendsthat the weakness of investmentspendinginJapanin the 1990’swasduetothis“balancesheeteffect”,andwasnotduetoashortage of loanscausedbyaweakenedbankingsystem.74SeeBIS(2012)p29forafullerdocumentation.AlsoseeMcKinsey(2010)whoidentify the householdsectorinfive ofthe fourteencountriestheyconsiderashavingahighprobability of futuredeleveraging.TheyidentifySpain, the US, the UK,CanadaandKorea.While the householdsectorsinBrazil,Russia,ChinaandIndiawerenotjudgedtobeoverleveraged,notethat the dataconsideredextendedonlyto2009.Thus the reportmissed the recentsharpincreasesinhouseholddebtlevelsinthosecountries. ... when106 The flattening of yieldcurveshasalreadyledtoanarrowing of interestspreads.See Bank forInternationalSettlements(2012)TableVI.1107SeeBillGross(2012).Thisisparticularlyperniciousifitthwartslongertermlendingtofund the longerterminvestmentthatmanyAME’sreallyneed.108SeeMeyer(2012)109SeeHaddockandBarnes(2012).Theycontendthat,priorto2007,manyhighlyleveragedpropertydealsin the UKusedswapstominimize the risks of risingfinancingrates.Indeed,many of theseswapshadamaturitylongerthan the underlyingloanitself.Nowmany of thesedealsneedtoberestructured,butlowpolicyrateshaveraised the cost of breaking the swaptoprohibitivelevels.Thisisanotherexample of howlowpolicyratescanimpede the purging of malinvestmentsin the downswing ofthe creditcycle.110Theseareverysimilarto the implicationsforpensionfundswhichwerediscussedabove.111Dickson(2001)112Antolinetal(2011),Frenchetal(2011),StandardandPoors(2011)andRamaswamy(2012) ... fordeleveragingbyhouseholdsaddsafurtherreasontodoubtthatultraeasymonetarypolicycansustainablystimulate the realeconomy.Norisitdifficulttofindevidencefor the buildup of horizontal(sectorialmalinvestments)during the last upswing ofthe credit cycle. The most obvious example is seen in the constructionindustryinmanycountries,mostlybutnotexclusivelyinthe...
... Sources ofBank Reserves Figure 5 illustrates the link between the size oftheFederalReserve s liquidity facilities and the quantity of reserves in the banking system. The top half of this ... Skeie. The views expressed in this paper are those ofthe authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of theFederalReserveBankof New York or theFederalReserve System. 11 Sources of ... increase in bank reserves need not be inflationary, because the payment of interest on reserves allows the FederalReserve to adjust short-term interest rates independently ofthe level of reserves.Key...
... restructuring ofthe banking system, a gradual open-ing to foreign investment, the partial privatization of state-owned banking institutions, and measures to strengthen the capitalization of ... postponed the sale of shares due to the poor performance ofthe domestic stock market. The bank reportedly plans to conduct its IPO in the second half of 2011 and sell up to a 20% stake, 10% of which ... in the Asia Pacific region. The views expressed in this publication are solely that ofthe author and do not necessarily represent the position oftheFederalReserve System. V ietnam’s banking...
... in the previous period and on the two-period lag ofthe output gap. The verticality ofthe aggregate supply is imposed by the restriction that the sum ofthe lagged inflation parameters and of ... the statistical non-significance ofthe real interest rate coefficient in the aggregate supply equation. Another result that is noteworthy concerns the effect ofthe terms of trade gap on the ... demonstrate absence of autocorrelation and of conditional heteroskedasticity for system errors. On the other hand, the JB test showed that the residuals ofthe three equations are normally distributed...
... credit to AIG, and other Fed assets. Liabilities: Other—Reverse repos, Treasury cash holdings, and deposits with Federal Reserve Banks other than reserve balances and excluding the Supplementary ... Federal Reserve Summary The balance sheet remained little changed, decreasing by $9 billion for the week ended September 15. Bank reserve balances decreased $118 billion, offset ... 2012. As of September 22, the futures market for fed funds indicates an implied rate of about 24 bps for the July 2011 contract. Source: Bloomberg September 22, 2010 Federal Reserve Balance...
... tobias.adrian@ny.frb.org). The views expressed in this paper are those ofthe authors and do not necessarily reect the position oftheFederalReserveBankof New York or the Federal Reserve System. Abstract The ... identify the three distinct subgroups ofthe shadow banking system. These are: (1) the government-sponsored shadow banking sub-system; (2) the “internal” shadow banking sub-system; and (3) the “external” ... banking, and an estimate ofthe size of shadow banking activity. Section 3 discusses the seven steps of the shadow credit intermediation process. Section 4 is by far the longest section of the...
... those ofthe authors and are not necessar-ily reective of views at theFederalReserveBankof New York or theFederal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility ofthe authors. Federal ... during the crisis is the role of re-hypothecation of collateral by dealers. Singh and Aitken (2009) investigate the role of re-hypothecation in the shadow banking system. Re-hypothecation is the ... support of FHLB liabilities by the US Government. The secured nature of an advance, as well as the lien theFederal Home Loan Bank has on the other assets ofthe borrower, means that the claims of...
... FRB St. Louis 314-444-8444In Plain English is published by theFederalReserveBankof St. Louis on behalf oftheFederalReserve System. THE FEDERALRESERVE SYSTEM Before we dig into the ... www.frbatlanta.org Federal ReserveBankof Boston www.bos.frb.org Federal ReserveBankof Chicago www.chicagofed.org Federal ReserveBankof Cleveland www.clevelandfed.org Federal ReserveBankof Dallas www.dallasfed.org Federal ... to the nation’s monetary policy and oversees the activities ofReserve banks.Board oF governors making sense OFTHEFEDERAL RESERVE 3 THEFEDERALRESERVE SYSTEM isit a FederalReserve bank, ...
... is the purpose ofthe Financial Remediation Framework? The Office ofthe Comptroller ofthe Currency (OCC) and the Board of Governors oftheFederal Reserve System (FRB) have developed the ... based on the estimated value ofthe borrower’s home at the time ofthe servicer’s error reduced by the amount the borrower still owes on the property. The estimated value ofthe borrower’s ... http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=14) to the date ofthe error will be used; or (iii) If there is no more recent appraisal or BPO available since the origination ofthe loan, the estimated value ofthe home at the time of error...
... review stress testing activities on a regular basis to determine, among other things, the validity ofthe assumptions, the severity of tests, the robustness ofthe estimates, the performance of ... consistent with the banking organization’s established risk appetite. A banking organization should review the results of its various stress tests with the strengths and limitations of each test ... viability.2 TheFederal Reserve, the Office ofthe Comptroller ofthe Currency, and theFederal Deposit Insurance Corporation (collectively, the “agencies”) are issuing this guidance to emphasize the...
... irrespective ofthe amount ofthe loan. However, the larger the loan, the larger the amount ofthe repayment installment, and a large installment may strain the repayment capacity ofthe borrower ... the scope ofthe proposed Act, and are infact regulated by Reserve Bank. b) Therefore, the organisations which are not regulated by the Reserve Bank account for an estimated 8% ofthe outstanding ... b) There has, therefore, to be a linkage between the amount ofthe loan and the tenure ofthe loan. It is, therefore, suggested that for loans not exceeding Rs. 15,000, the tenure ofthe loan...