Hydropower development and management 1 ADB TA 4903-VIE WATER SECTOR REVIEW PROJECT STATUS AND ISSUES IN HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT  Prepared for: Final Report Prepared by: HA TIEN LUY Energy & Hydropower Specialist 05 / March / 2008 A. Overview on hydro-power development status in national scope 1. Overview on Vietnam’s hydropower resources -power resources are very plentiful and distributed widespread in national scope. Vietnam is one of 14 countries which are rich in hydro-electric resources in the world. Total hydro-power resources potential of more than 2200 mini, medium and large rivers (just mention rivers with more than 10 km in length) in national scope is assessed as follows: 1.1. Theorical   -power resources is evaluated to be 300 billion KWh, with capacity of 34.647 to 35.000 MW. 1.2. Techno-economic potential: Vietnam hydro-power is about 82-100 billion KWh with capacity range from 18.600 to 20.000 MW as evaluated (about 30 to 33% of theorical potential) in which: - Large and medium hydro-power plants (the kind with capacity of the same or more than 30 MW/1 plant): as expected there are about 150 such plants, with total capacity around 18.000  18.640 MW (about 90-93 % of total hydro-power teachno-economic potential). See diagram 1.1 and table 1.1 - Small hydro-power stations (with capacity smaller than 30.000 KW/1 station): it is expected to have total of capacity about 1.600 -2000 MW (about 7-10% of total hydro-power resource economic-technological potential. 2. Operating and constructing hydro-power plants (to be put into operation in 2010) -power plants out 18 billion kwh. Therefore, more than -technological potential was exploited. Regarding pump storage hydro-electricity at present, 10 feasible economic-technical projects with total machine capacity about 10.000 MW was planned (Son La has 7 projects, Hoa Binh: 1 projects, Ninh Thuan: 1 projects, and Binh Thuan: 1 project). Now, pre-feasible reports of s is being made. 2 a . Hydro-electric stations put into operation ( to December 2007). Total such hydro-power plants (to Dec. 2007) are: 4,457 MW. In which: ( i )- Total capacity of medium and large hydro-power plants which has come into operation (to Dec., 2007) is 4.407MW including 12 plants : Hoa Binh ( 1920 MW), Thác Bà ( 108 MW),  (160 MW), Tr An ( 400 MW), Hàm Thu và C - 01. ( ii ).Total mini hydro-electri -electric plants put into operation. ( 1) Hoà Bình : 1920 MW ( 8x240 MW ), finished in 1994, yearly average electric yield is 8.160 GWh . ( 2 ) Thác Bà : 108 MW ( 3x36 MW), finished in 1972, maximum capacity is 120 MW, many   230 GWh .  250 GWh. ( 5 ) Yaly : 720 MW ( 4 x 180 MW ), finished in  GWh  GWh       1000 GWh ( 8 ) Tr  ( 9 ) Hàm Thun : 300 MW ( 2x150 MW ), .   ( 11 ) Th ( 12 ) C( 2 x 39 MW ), finished in 2004  Note :    ai Ninh : 300 MW ( 2 x 150 MW), finished 12/2007 and officially generated  b. Hydro-electric plants with capacity of more than 30 MW/plant invested by EVN is being constructed to go into operation in 2010 : Total capacity of these hydro-electric project is about 6.500 MW. At present, there are 19 hydro-electric projects invested by EVN have and have being constructed, in which Son La hydro-electric project with capa bigest, is expected to go into operation lately 2010 and finish totally in lately 2012. The following is list of executing hydro-electric projects invested by EVN (in order from the North to the South) See tables TD.4- 01, Existing HydroPower Projects in Vietnam ( at December 2007 ) 3 - 02.List of constructing hydro-electric plants invested by EVN Source : Master Plan for Electric Power Development in Vietnam 2005-2025 (MPEPD 6) ch Phát trin lc Vit nam-n2006-2025 ( TSD 6  c . Hydro-electric plants with N> 30 MW invested by other Vietnam’s companies (not belong to EVN) follwing to BOT form. IPP is constructing to go into operation in the period of 2006  2010 : Total capacity : 920 MW . 4 B¶ng T§ 4 . 01. Các nhà máy thuỷ điện đã đưa vào vận hành ( tính đến thời điểm tháng 12 năm 2007 ) Table TD 4 – 01. Existing HydroPower Projects in Vietnam ( at December 2007 ) No. River Basin River Project name Province Capacity N ( MW ) Energy E ( GWh ) 1 Hong & Thai Binh Da Hoa Binh Hoa Binh 1920 8,160 2 ,, Chay Thac Ba Yen Bai 108 438 3 Kone Kone Vinh Son Binh Dinh 66 229 4 Ba Hinh Song Hinh Khanh Hoa 70 253 5 Se San SeSan Yaly Gia Lai- Kon Tum 720 3,589 6 ,, ,, Se San 3 Gia Lai 260 990 7 Dong nai Be Thac Mo Binh Phuoc 150 589 8 ,, ,, Can Don Binh Phuoc 78 290 9 ,, La Nga Ham Thuan Lam dong- Binh Thuan 300 957 10 ,, ,, Da Mi Dong nai- Binh thuan 175 590 11 ,, Da Rang Da Nhim Lam dong- Ninh thuan 160 1,025 12 ,, Dong Nai Tri An Dong nai 400 1,726 A Total Existing HydroPower Capacity of National: 4,407 18,836 B Total Electric Capacity of National : 11,717 A / B = 37,6% In Basin Rivers : 1. Hong & Thai binh 2028 8,598 2. Kone 66 229 3. Ba 70 253 4. SeSan 980 4,579 5. Dong Nai 1263 5177 Note : 13. Small Hydropower ( in all country ) : N= 50 MW / E = ( about ) 200 GWh. 14. Total Existing HydroPower Capacity of National: N = 4,457 MW / E = 19,036 GWh. 5 Bảng TĐ. 4 - 02. Các dự án thuỷ điện đang thi công (để đưa vào vận hành vào thời kỳ 2010-2015 ) do EVN làm chủ đầu tư ( Theo thứ tự từ Bắc vào Nam )  Table TD 4 – 02. Constucting HydroPower Projects in Vietnam ( For use at Perio2010-2015 ) - Funded by EVN - Số TT No. Tên công trình Project name Tỉnh Province Công suất (MW) Capacity Chiều cao đập (m) Dam High Sông River LVS River Basin 1 Tuyên Quang Tuyên Quang 342 93 Gam Hồng +TB 2 Sơn La Sơn La 2400 138 Da Hồng +TB 3 Huội Quảng Sơn La 520 130 Nam Mu / Da Hồng +TB 4 Bản chát Lai Châu 220 104 Nam Mu / Da Hồng +TB 5 Bản vẽ Nghệ An 320 136 Ca Cả 6 Quảng trị (Rào quán) Quảng Trị 64 75 Thạch Hãn Thạch Hãn 7 Sông tranh 2 Quảng Nam 190 95 Tranh VuGia - ThuBồn 8 A Vương Quảng Nam 210 82 Thu Bon VG -TB 9 Sông Ba Hạ Phú Yên 220 60 Ba Ba 10 An Khê - Kanak Gia Lai 173 64 Ba Ba 11 Đồng Nai 3 Lâm Đồng 240 100 ĐồngNai ĐồngNai 12 Đồng Nai 4 Lâm Đồng 270 128 ĐồngNai ĐồngNai 13 Đại Ninh Lâm Đồng 300 50 ĐồngNai ĐồngNai 14 Bắc Bình Bình Thuân 33 25 Luy SERC 15 Buôn Tou srah Đắc Lắc 86 85 Serepoc Serepoc 16 Buôn Kuop Đắc Lắc 280 30 Serepoc Serepoc 17 Srêpok 3 Đắc Lắc 220 60 Serepoc Serepoc 18 PleiKrông Kon Tum 110 71 Se San Se San 19 Sê San 4 Gia Lai 330 74 Se San Se San 6 Bảng TĐ 4 . 03 . Các dự án EVN đang triển khai công tác chuẩn bị đầu tư ( để đưa vào vận hành đến 2015 ) Table TD 4-03 . Studying & For use at2015 – Funded by EVN Số TT No. Tên công trình Project Name Tỉnh Province Công suất N ( MW) Capacity Điện lượng E ( GWh ) Energy Lưu Vực Sông River Basin River 1 Lai Châu Lai Châu 1200 Hng + TB Da 2  Thanh Hóa 250 Mã Chu 3 Sông Bung 2 Qun Nam 100  + Thu Bn Bung 4 Sông Bung 4 Qung Nam 145  + Thu Bn Bung 5 Sông Bung 5 Qung Nam 60  + Thu Bn Bung 6 Khe B Ngh An 90 C C 7 Sê San 4a Giai Lai 60 SêSan SêSan 9 Cộng : 1915 3. Role of hydro-electric development in Vietnam’s energy sector, economic significance and contribution of hydro-electricity toward Vietnam’s GDP. 3.1. situation of carring out Electric power development in period V – period 2001- 2010 and perspective up to 2020 ( is abbreviated to MPEPD - 5 ; MPEPD-V ; or in Vietnamese is TSD - 5 ; TSD - V ). 3.1.1. Compare real energy demands and one according to the forecast TSD V is carried out in period 1998-1999, therefore, results forcasted (energy and capacity) may be compared to real data in period 2000 - 2005. real values is higher than all methods of forecast (high, low, medium) of TSD V. High case has smallest disparity between forecasted value and real data . The reason is that TSD V was established at the time when economic financial crisis happened in the area, therefore forecast of economic growth speed (according to national wide and economic sectors in common), invested capital estimated as well as reconstruction of industrial zones, export processing zones, large factories all are at rather modest starting point. So, commodity energy and maximum additional charge capacity are smaller than ones in reality during last years. Comparision of energy demand forecasted results of TSD 5 with the fact of encreasing energy demand (2000-2005) is shown in table 2.1. 7 Table 2.1. Forecasted results in TSD 5 in comparision with real value Year Commodity energy (GWh) Maximum capacity (MW) Reality Forecast of TSD 5 Reality Forecast of TSD 5 Low case Base case High case Low case Base case High case 2000 22404 21394 4893 4477 2001 26851 23651 23844 24068 5655 4902 4942 4988 2002 30234 26165 26597 27112 6552 5381 5470 5576 2003 34841 28978 29706 30593 7408 5920 6069 6250 2004 39596 32103 33192 34550 8283 6510 6731 7006 2005 45603 36728 38797 40900 9255 7380 7802 8230 Statistical error calculated esults of energy forecasted result and the reality of 2000-2004 according to popular methods show that: in the field of energy, high method have smallest error. Namely, high energy forecast method has average absolute error of 3041.7 GWh,  With regards to max capacity demand (Pmax), high method also has error in a permitted limit. Namely, high method has mean absolute error of 898.8 MW, with Std.Dev of 354.6 MW. Similarly, high method has mean relative error of 15.38% with Std.Dev of 3.99% After assessing the high rise of additional charge in years of 1999 - 2001, economic and envestment growth efficency due to timely and flexible managing methods of goverment, early 2002, electric sector actively revised some contents of TSD V such as: 2005 electricity demand was forecasted to be 53,4 TWh, 15% higher than the one of 46,5 TWh; and one of 2010 is 96,1 Wh, 23% higher than one of 78,5 TWh (high method of TSD V); push up some resource projects and transfered and loaded networks ext. Therefore, during 2001 to 2005 electricity sector basically met highly increasing demands of electricity, serving economic and social development. Table 2.4 and picture 2.1 show us sumarized, assessed and forecasted numbers of electricity demand in TSD IV, V, and revised TSD V compared to reality of 1995- 2005 period. One of big impacts which affected electricity demand recently is Asian Sou  financial monetary crisis in 1997. it caused a decline in foreign investment and internal industry during those years. However, to 2001-2005 period, industry and commercial service sectors in the country thrived again, foreign direct investme electricity demands in last decade reflected that. Through picture 2.1, we could see, if the                 accurate while beginning TSD V was rather pessimistic. And, lastly, revises in TSD V is timely. 8 Table 2.4. Electricity forecast for prodution according to TSDs compared to reality Unit: GWh year TSD 4 TSD 5 - High case TSD 5 revised - Base case Reality Reality / TSD 5 revised (%) 1994 11837 1995 14548 14325 1996 16931 16948 1997 19631 19162 1998 22685 21646 1999 26118 23739 23749 2000 29971 26000 26594 27041 101.7 2001 34031 29145 30603 31137 101.7 2002 38469 32727 35179 36410 103.5 2003 43246 36649 40329 41273 102.3 2004 48384 41428 46412 47138 101.6 2005 53834 46554 53438 53462 100.0 Picture 2.1. sumarized, assessed and forecasted numbers of electricity demand in TSD IV, V, and revised TSD V compared to reality of 1995-2005 period. Note: Reality = thc t TSD 5 revised - Base case =  TSD 5 - High case = TSD 5 PA cao TSD 4 = TSD 4 Hydroelectric demand in the period of 2001-2005 tends to be different as expected in TSD V. While, it is forecasted that areas with fast increase in electricity demand are Ha Noi, Hai 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ¦íc 2005 in sn xut (GWh) thùc tÕ TS§ 4 TS§ 5 PA cao TS§ 5 HC PA c¬ së 9 Phong, Quang Ninh (development triangle), §a nang, Quang Nam - Quang ngai (economic axis of Central region) Ho chi Minh city, Ba Ria-vòng Tau, §ong Nai, Hai Phong, in fact, just increases upper 10%, Ha Noi 12,3%, Ho Chi Minh city 13% other areas increase faster than estimated such as Vinh Phuc 21,2%, Hung Yen 25,5%, Bac Ninh 15,1%, Whole Central region increase 14,8%, provincial region belonging to electricity company II increase 20,2% in average (Binh Duonng 34%, §ong Nai 18,2%, Ba Ria-Vung Tau 16,1%, Bac Lieu 18,9%, Binh Thuan 16,5% ). This change is assessed to be caused by following reasons:              2005 increased strongly, policy for attracting investment create favorable condition for  with the mechanism and lose the opportunity to attract investment 3.1.2. Assessment of electric resources development implimentation Table 2.2 shows total capacity of electricity resources and amount of capacity put into use 2001  2005 according to electric plants. Of which, in some years, capacity of        about 36% in 2005 and highest is 58% in 2001).           - economic development . Speed of hydroelectric resource increase in 2001-2005 period is 14,3% per year, but still abit lower than the speed of electricity increase for production (about 14,8%). The rate of electric plants of IPP and BOT kinds increased quickly, from about 506 MW (ocupy 6-7%) in 2001 up to 2439 MW (21,3%) in 2005. Table 2.2. Total Install Capacity and further increase in period 2001-2005 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Type of power MW % MW % MW % MW % MW % Hydro 3883 57.90 4120 47.20 4120 43.40 4120 40.10 4120 36.00 Themal ( coal,oil ) 845 12.60 1445 16.60 1445 16.10 1445 14.10 1445 12.60 Gas turbine + Diesel 1477 22.00 2649 30.40 2649 27.90 3117 30.30 3444 30.10 IPP+other 506 7.50 506 5.80 1287 13.50 1596 15.50 2439 21.30 Total install Capacity 6711 100 8720 100 9501 100 10278 100 11448 100 Growth ( % ) 6.6 29.9 9.0 8.2 11.4 Increase Capacity 778 2009 781 777 1170 [...]... system of management and development policy and mechanism, Associating economy-energy, electricity- environment according to the guidline of stable energy ( electric) development 3 Implementing propaganda to raise the awareness of moral,active,undestanding community toward enegy (electric) and environment issue 4 Providing training and cultivating program to environmental protection unit of management. .. inherit and expand studies in last TSD V, researching results of the prefeasible reserching report on nuclear electricity projects and assessment on hydropower development planning in the project of national hydroelectric planning, period 1 (finnished) and national hydropower planning, period 2 having draft: 2- lilmit of fuel (parallel gas and natural gas according to sediment reservoirs, domestic and. .. kinds of electric resources of primary energy fuel nationwide and every region in every planned period: The North focuses on hydropower and coal thermo-electric construction; the South develops hydropower, gas and coal thermal electricity; the Central develops hydropower and after that further develops gas thermo-electricity (if discover gas) and coal thermo-electricity - Continue to further develop thermal... Besides projects having put into operating and exporting to Thailand: Nam Ng (150 MW) Theun Hin Bun (210 MW), Xe Xet (45 MW), Houay Ho (150 MW), a project being constructed to provide Thailand with electricity is Nam Theun 2 1088 MW 2) In 1997, governments of Thailand and Myanmar signed a memorandum for Thailand to import electricity from Myanmars hydro and thermo electricity power plants with a scale... create competition and enhance economic efficiency in electric resource construction and operation 4.2 Methodology and calculating condition to plan and develop electric resources In NEPDP of period IV (1995 2005) and period V (2000 2010) recentlyy, optimal problem for electric development is to use measure of motivate planning through WASP program Though, this is famous computer program and so far, it... in the appandex 4.4.2.2 electric resource development Program in the period 2020 2025 Till 2020 total capatity of electric plants is 60.700MW, of which, hydropower and pump storage hydropowers capacity is 17.200MW (28,3%), oil-gas thermalelectricity: 16.300 MW (26,8%), coal thermalelectricity:18.300 MW (30,2%), nuclear electricity: 2.000MW (3,3%), electriciy from mini hydropower plants and new energy:1800MW... according to basic and high additional charge project in period 2006 2025 13 Total electric capacity of river basin and areas put into operation in period of 2011-2020 and take account of 2025 : To meet energy demand for social-economic development of the country; base on potential of energy forms in regions, basical contents of national energy policy and strategy of electric sector development in period... electric development (include hydroelectric power) need to acheive 8-11%/year in the peridod of 2011-2025 In all areas, it must take many power sources into effects About hydroeclectric power, see 06-A1 and 06-A2 table Electric development in rural area program 2006-2010-2015: Together with the development of middle and large size power sources and the electric line system The government and electric... National electric development program mentioned above, the government and the electric agency must muster sources to develop the electric agency comprehensively in all fields: power sources, electric network development, associating and 27 cooperating electric source and network with some countries in the region, increasing and information supply in electric field, increasing environmental and environment... reform and policies and improve structure of electricity management 6 Altanative energy resources could emerge Thouth we focus our great force on hydropower development (coal thermo-electricity, gas turbine , large, medium, mini hydro electric plants, pump storage hydro-electricity, nuclear electricity, oil diedel (standby) However, we still must attach much importance to exploit new enery resource and . Hydropower development and management 1 ADB TA 4903-VIE WATER SECTOR REVIEW PROJECT STATUS AND ISSUES IN HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT . economic and social development. Table 2.4 and picture 2.1 show us sumarized, assessed and forecasted numbers of electricity demand in TSD IV, V, and revised