Analysis of Typhoon Risk associated with Storm Surge and Wind Waves in southern Vietnam A Dissertation Submitted to the Department of Transdisciplinary Science and Engineering In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements of the Degree of Doctor of Engineering Le Tuan Anh 2019 i ACKNOWLEDGMENT Undertaking this Ph.D has been a truly life-changing experience for me and it would not have been possible to without the support and guidance that I received from many people I would like to first say a very big thank you to my supervisor Assoc Prof Hiroshi Takagi, whose expertise was invaluable in the formulating of the research topic and methodology in particular I am very appreciated for all the support and encouragement he gave me, during both the field trips in Mekong Delta and also the time I spent at Takagi laboratory Without his guidance and constant feedback this Ph.D would not have been achievable Besides my advisor, I would like to thank the rest of my thesis committee: Prof Manabu Kanda, Assoc Prof Daisuke Akita, Assoc Prof Takashi Nakamura, and Dr Alvin Christopher Varquez, for their insightful comments and encouragement, which help me to widen my research from various perspectives I would like to acknowledge my colleagues from Takagi laboratory for their wonderful collaboration You supported me greatly and were always willing to help me Thank you for the stimulating discussions and for all the fun we have had in the last three years Last but not least, I would like to thank my family for supporting me spiritually throughout writing this thesis and my life in general i ABSTRACT Typhoon and storm surge are the biggest hazards that threaten coastal communities in Vietnam The possibility of a large typhoon taking place in Southern Vietnam is considerably smaller than in the northern and central parts of the country, though this does not necessarily mean that Southern Vietnam is less vulnerable against typhoons The questionnaire surveys were carried out to investigate disaster awareness amongst local inhabitants in Southern Vietnam Although typhoon rarely occurs, the interview results show that the local population has a high degree of awareness about the dangers posed by those events However, it seems that they did not necessarily consider the risk as their own problems Typhoon Linda 1997 is the historical event that caused catastrophic damage for this region, and also significantly affected local people's perception of typhoons Nevertheless, it is still required to improve preparedness against coastal disasters in Vietnam, especially in terms of the evacuation plan and coastal disaster education for fishermen as well as younger generation A numerical coupled model using wind field from the JMA Grid Point Value (GPV) reanalysis data and considering two-way interaction between storm surge and wind wave was used to confirm the accuracy of the model through investigating the physical impact of Typhoon Jebi, which struck Kansai region of Japan in 2018 The simulated results fit well with the measured water level and wave height during its passage, showing the reliability of the proposed model The same model can be used to investigate the extent of the storm surge and high waves during the worst Typhoon Linda in Southern Vietnam in 1997 However, due to the limitation of meteorological data, the wind field obtained from the parametric typhoon model is used instead of the reanalysis data The good agreement in comparison between simulation results and observed data demonstrates the applicability of the simplified model for those typhoons transiting off the coast of Southern Vietnam, where the number of fishing boats always seek productive fishing spots The scenario with a hypothetical typhoon is performed to create a spatial wave distribution map, designed for fishermen during their operation This kind of hazard map will be beneficial for disaster management officers to assess whether they can return to the origin or neighboring safer islands to evacuate when an unexpected typhoon approaches ii Table of content ACKNOWLEDGEMENT……………………………………………………………………………………i ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………………………… ii LIST OF FIGURES…………………………………………………………………………………… vi LIST OF TABLES…………………………………………………………………………………… ix CHAPTER Introduction……………………………………………………………………….………… 1.1 Coastal disaster in Vietnam…………………………………………………………… ……………1 1.1.1 Tropical typhoon……………………………………………………………………………….1 1.1.2 Storm Surge……………………………………………………………………………… .2 1.1.3 Wave climate classification……………………………………………………… 1.1.4 Tides……………………………………………………………………………….………… 1.2 Storm surge Model……………………………………………………………………….……………3 1.2.1 ADCIRC…………………………………………………………………………… 1.2.2 SLOSH…………………………………………………………………………….………… 1.2.3 FVCOM…………………………………………………………………………… 1.2.4 CH3D……………………………………………………………………………… 1.3 Recent researches on Storm surge and typhoon associated disasters…………………… 1.3.1 Studies in storm surge in the world…………………………………………………………….6 1.3.2 Storm surge researches in Vietnam……………………………………………….……………7 A Numerical model development………………………………………………….……………7 B Typhoon perception in Vietnam………………………………………………….………… 1.4 Aims and Objectives……………………………………………………………………… .8 1.5 Methodology……………………………………………………………………………… .9 1.6 Outlines of this study…………………………………………………………………………………9 CHAPTER Typhoon perception in Southern Vietnam……………………………………………………11 2.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………….11 2.2 Typhoon Track Analysis…………………………………………………………………………….12 2.3 Storm surge awareness in Mekong Delta……………………………………………………………14 2.3.1 Interview survey …………………………………………………………………………… 14 2.3.2 Typhoon Linda In 1997………………………………………………………………………17 2.3.3 People’s Awareness in Mekong Delta…………………………………………… .19 iii 2.4 Field survey in Con Dao…………………………………………………………………………….22 2.4.1 The purposes of the survey……………………………………………………… 22 2.4.2 Memory of Linda and Awareness of Typhoon Disasters in Con Dao Island…………………23 2.5 Discussion On Disaster Risk Awareness Improvement…………………………………………… 25 2.6 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………… 27 CHAPTER Coupled Storm surge – Wave model using Meso-scale Data - Hindcasting with an ideal meteorological input……………………………………………………………………… 28 3.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………… .28 3.2 Methodology…………………………………………………………………………… 29 3.2.1 Field survey……………………………………………………………………… 29 3.2.2 Wind–wave and Storm Surge Hindcasting……………………………………… 30 3.2.3 Analysis of tide gauge data……………………………………………………… 33 3.3 Results………………………………………………………………………………………………35 3.3.1 Field survey……………………………………………………………………… 35 3.3.2 Wind-Wave and Storm Surge Hindcasting……………………………………………………45 A Wind and pressure fields……………………………………………………………………45 B Storm surge simulation………………………………………………………… 47 C Wind-wave simulation………………………………………………………………………48 D Tidal effect on wave and storm surge simulation………………………………………… 49 3.4 Discussion……………………………………………………………………………… 52 3.4.1 Improvement of the proposed 2-way coupled model compared with other conventional models……………………………………………………………………………………… 52 3.4.2 Wave-Storm surge ratio……………………………………………………………………….54 3.5 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………… 58 CHAPTER Coupled Storm surge – Wave model using, parametric typhoon Model - Hindcasting with a limited meteorological input………………………………………………………………….59 4.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………… .59 4.2 Methodology…………………………………………………………………………… 60 4.2.1 Applicability of wind field from Typhoon model and GEBCO08 bathymetric data in Vietnam………………………………………………………………………………………60 iv 4.2.2 Coupled model description……………………………………………………………………63 4.3 Results…………………………………………………………………………………… .64 4.3.1 Storm Surge Induced by Linda……………………………………………………………… 64 4.3.2 Waves Generated by Linda……………………………………………………………………66 4.4 Discussion……………………………………………………………………………… 68 4.5 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………… 71 CHAPTER Discussion – Application of the models for disaster management………………………… 72 5.1 Discussion on policy, public education, and training regarding typhoon and storm surge risk management in Vietnam………………………………………………………………… .72 5.2 Hazard map for fishermen……………………………………………………………………………75 CHAPTER Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………80 REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………………………………… 81 v List of Figures Figure 2.1 (a) Landfall points along Vietnamese coast between 1951 and 2010, (b) Annual frequency of landfalls for each one degree segment of the coastline, (c) Total number of landfalls for each one degree segment of the coastline between 1951 and 2010, and (d) Annual total number of tropical cyclones making landfall Vietnam between 1951 and 2010…………………………………………………………… Figure 2.2 Location of surveyed areas in Vietnam…………………………………………… Figure 2.3 Interview with local people in Can Tho city……………………………………… Figure 2.4 Age distribution of respondents in Mekong delta………………………………… Figure 2.5 Occupation of respondents………………………………………………… Figure 2.6 Distribution of people have experienced damage from previous disasters………… Figure 2.7 Surge height, as indicated by a local resident who remembered Typhoon Linda……………………………………………………………………… Figure 2.8 Wind speed during Typhoon Linda in Can Tho city………………………………… Figure 2.9 Damage in Can Tho city during Typhoon Linda 1997…………………… Figure 2.10 Distribution of respondents who were aware of the nature of storm surges in Mekong Delta…………………………………………………………………… Figure 2.11 Distribution of respondents who think that a storm surge constitutes a real danger for them in Mekong Delta………………………………………………………… Figure 2.12 Distribution of respondents regarding whether they have taken part in evacuation drills in the last years…………………………………………………………… Figure 2.13 Distribution of people who know how to evacuate in the event of a typhoon / storm surge…………………………………………………… Figure 2.14 Houses near water in Ca Mau…………………………………………… Figure 2.15 Circular plots on this satellite image indicate the towns of Con Dao Island where we conducted the survey (White dots: East coast; yellow dots: Northern village.) A total of 103 questionnaires were collected in Con Dao The insets show interviews with local witnesses………………………… Figure 2.16 Occupation of respondents……………………………………………………… Figure 2.17 Questionnaires results regarding people awareness and preparedness in Con Dao……………………………………………………………………………… Figure 2.18 Do children learn about storm surge/flooding in school, and how to evacuate? Figure 2.19 Tsunami instruction panel in Con Dao…………………………………………… Figure 2.20 Source of information on storm surge and typhoons in Southern Vietnam……… Figure 3.1 Japan Meteorological Agency’s weather map immediately before Jebi made landfall (September 4, 2018, 09:00, Japan Standard Time, UTC+9)…………… Figure 3.2 Processes in one-way and two-way coupled models…………………………… Figure 3.3 Simulation domains for simulating wind waves during Typhoon Jebi The indicated locations have wave monitoring stations of the NOWPHAS and wind observation stations from JMA, whose data were used in this study for model verification……………………………………………………………………… Figure 3.4 Map of west Japan showing the locations of tide gauge stations considered in this study and trajectory of Typhoon Jebi from August to September of 2018……… Figure 3.5 (I) Large view of field survey area, (II) Location of survey points, (III) storm surge and overtopping height measurements inside Osaka Bay and (IV) around Kii Strait The primary mechanism of elevated sea level: wave overtopping (red) and 13 15 16 16 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 27 29 32 34 35 vi storm surge (yellow) The blue line indicates the trajectory of Typhoon Jebi Locations (a) to (o) indicate the sequence of survey points……………………… Figure 3.6 Field survey at Nanko Bird Sanctuary and Sakai (locations (a) and (b) in Figure 3.5-III) (I) Survey locations at the sanctuary, (II) trash accumulated over the main route, (III) sea dyke, (IV) scour behind the dyke due to wave overtopping, (V) damaged building near the dyke, (VI) difference in grass color demonstrating that seawater reached a height up to the withered grass and (VII) broken parapet at Sakai City outside…………………………… ……………………………… Figure 3.7 Field survey at Rinku Park (location (c) in Figure 3.5-III) (I) Park overview two days after Typhoon Jebi impact showing trash and a damaged roof We measured the elevation of the ground where trash remained (II) Inner and (III) outer protection layers of the park……………………………………………………… Figure 3.8 Field survey at Wakayama (locations (d) and (e) in Figure 3.5-IV) (I) Localization of Kainan and Saikazaki, (II) coastal fence smashed by high waves at Kainan, (III) broken parapet by overtopping waves at Saikazaki………………………… Figure 3.9 Field survey at Tokushima (locations (f) and (g) in Figure 3.5-IV) (I) Damaged roof in a village from Anan, (II) high sea dyke at Minami Awa………………… Figure 3.10 Field survey at Honjo river mouth (location (h) in Figure 3.5-IV) (I) Location of training wall and (II) smashed handrail of the training wall…………………… Figure 3.11 Field survey at eastern coast of Awaji-shima island (locations (i) to (k) in Figure 3.5-IV) (I) Location of surveyed places, (II) armored breakwater at Minami Awa Fishing Port, (III) smashed guardrail at Awa Nadakuroiwa, (IV) rubber fenders found at Awa Nadashirosaki caused a large punching hole on a wall…………… Figure 3.12 Field survey at Kobe city (locations (l) to (o) in Figure 3.5-III) (I) Kobe Meriken Park storm surge and high waves during Typhoon Jebi (rough sea screenshot from online live camera at 14:17, September 4, 2018, Japan Standard Time) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCupBcgCuO8), (II) situation after days of the typhoon at Kobe Meriken Park, (III) fallen bricks at Nishinomiya Yacht Harbor, (IV) destroyed inland floodgate at Amagasaki Port, (V) stranded large vessel at Amagasaki Port, (VI) trash gathered behind breakwater, (VII) Koshienhama Artificial Beach, where wave overtopping was confirmed……… Figure 3.13Comparison between wind speed obtained from the JMA mesoscale spectral model and observed data on September 2018 (time in Japan Standard Time, UTC+9)………………………………………………………………………… Figure 3.14 Comparison between air pressure obtained from the JMA mesoscale spectral model and observed data on September 2018 (time in Japan Standard Time, UTC+9)………………………………………………… Figure 3.15 Wind field distribution during Typhoon Jebi passage (I) over Kii Strait on September 4, 2018, at 11:00 and (II) inside Osaka Bay at 14:00 (Japan Standard Time, UTC+9)………………………………………………… Figure 3.16 Comparison of calculated surge level with flow–wave interaction, no interaction with wave, and observed values during Jebi passage…………………………… Figure 3.17 Spatial distribution of storm surge caused by Typhoon Jebi inside Osaka bay from (I) two-way coupled model and (II) no-coupling single model (Japan Standard Time, UTC+9)…………………………………………………………………… Figure 3.18 Significant wave height obtained from our surge-wave model and observed data Time is expressed in Japan Standard Time, UTC+9……………………………… 37 39 41 42 42 43 44 45 46 46 46 47 47 49 vii Figure 3.19 Significant wave height distribution during Typhoon Jebi passage (I) over Kii Strait on September 4, 2018, at 11:00 and (II) inside Osaka Bay at 14:00 (Japan Standard Time, UTC+9)………………………………………………………… Figure 3.20 Comparison of wave height from different models with different coupled components (Japan Standard Time, UTC+9)…………………………………… Figure 3.21 Comparison of the total water level (storm tide) from coupled storm surge -wave – tide model (Japan Standard Time, UTC+9)…………………………………… Figure 3.22 Comparison of significant wave height between 2-way couple model and other models (Japan Standard Time, UTC+9)………………………………………… Figure 3.23 Sea level in September 2018 affected by Typhoon Jebi based on analyses of tide gauge data (a) Original tide gauge records and tide prediction (b) SA and SD at different tide gauge 15-minute average waveforms to remove wave effects)…………………………………………………………………………… Figure 3.24 Power spectrum of component waves during 12 hours including the arrival time of Typhoon Jebi………………………………………………………………… Figure 4.1 Comparison between wind field during Typhoon Jebi reproducing by GPV model and Typhoon model……………………………………………………………… Figure 4.2 Comparison of Significant wave height and Storm surge during Jebi between the 2-way coupled models using using four different combination input data set (time in Japan Standard Time, UTC+9) at Komatsujima and Kaiyo Tokushima Figure 4.3 Simulation grids, combining larger and smaller domains……………………… Figure 4.4 Central pressure and wind speed during Linda (Vietnamese local time)………… Figure 4.5 Distribution of the storm surge induced by Typhoon Linda, estimated by a typhoon-storm surge integrated model………………………………………… Figure 4.6 Comparison between observed and simulated water levels, including storm surge and tide, during Linda from three locations in the Mekong Delta Observed data were derived from our previous study (Vietnamese local time UTC+07)……………… Figure 4.7 Simulated and observed wave heights at Huahin, Ko Chang, and Rayong as Linda approached the Gulf of Thailand (Observed data retrieved from the previous study)…………………………………………………………………………… Figure 4.8 Wave-height distribution when Linda crossed the south side of Con Dao at 7:00 a.m on November 2nd, 1997 (Vietnamese local time)………………………… Figure 4.9 Simulated wave height at three stations from the model using coarse and finer bathymetry……………………………………………………………………… Figure 4.10 Simulated wave height around ConDao from the model using coarse and finer bathymetry……………………………………………………………………… Figure 4.11 Comparison of estimated (a) surge component with and without wave interaction and (b) wave height with and without considering the storm surge effect at Ganh Hao from model using coarse bathymetry……………………………………… Figure 4.12 Spatial distribution of storm surge in Mekong Delta from (I) coupled model and (II) singled model caused by Typhoon Linda…………………………………… Figure 4.13 Spatial distribution of wave in Mekong Delta from (I) coupled model and (II) singled model caused by Typhoon Linda………………………………………… Figure 4.14 Temporal change of wave height caused by Typhoon Linda from one-way and two-way coupled model………………………………………………………… Figure 5.1 Structure of the organizations that taking responsibility to provide directions and guidance to local populations to respond to a natural disaster…………………… 49 50 52 53 56 57 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 67 69 69 70 70 71 71 73 viii Figure 5.2 Major fishing spots in Southern Vietnam (the white arrows in the right inset show the possible route toward Con Dao that many fishing boats took to escape from high waves during Linda; those in the left inset show the escape route according to interviews with fisherman in the local newspaper…………………………… Figure 5.3 Two similar strong typhoons approached Mekong Delta after 20 years…………… Figure 5.4 The wave spatial distribution caused by hypothesis typhoon at 21:00 1st November 1997 (Vietnamese local time) ………………………………………………… Figure 5.5 Wave-height distribution when hypothetical typhoon crossed the south side of Con Dao at 7:00 a.m on November 2nd, 1997 (Vietnamese local time)… 76 77 78 79 Table of Tables Table 2.1 Estimated storm surges at the river mouth of the Mekong River…………………… Table 2.2 Number of tropical cyclones that made landfall along the coasts of Vietnam, categorized into latitude zones, for the decades between 1951 and 2010…… Table 3.1 Field survey storm surge/wave runup measurements in west Japan due to Typhoon Jebi……………………………………………………………………………… Table 3.2 Comparison of wave height from different models with different coupled components (The cells highlighted in yellow show the most accurate results compared with observed data)…………………………………………………… Table 3.3 Comparison of max wave height from 2-way coupled model and other different models (The cells highlighted in yellow show the most accurate results compared with obseerved data)……………………………………………………………… Table 3.4 Wave height and storm surge level at locations in Kii Strait and Osaka Bay and the wave/surge ratios caused by the 2018 Typhoon Jebi……………………………… Table 4.1 Investigation the sensitivity of different combination of input data set (The cells highlighted in yellow show the most accurate results among four combinations)… Table 5.1 Relation between wind speeds and wave heights…………………………………… 12 14 36 51 53 57 61 77 ix Figure 5.2 Major fishing spots in Southern Vietnam (the white arrows in the right inset show the possible route toward Con Dao that many fishing boats took to escape from high waves during Linda; those in the left inset show the escape route according to interviews with fisherman in the local newspaper (news.zing.vn)) It is noticeable that, after 20 years, another strong typhoon named Tembin in 2017 with the sustained wind speed up to 70 knots according to JMA approached the East Sea along a similar track that Linda passed (Fig 5.3) This typhoon could be the strongest typhoon since Linda struck in 1997 The extra simulation was conducted based on a scenario that a typhoon with the track as similar to Typhoon Linda, but with the same intensity of Typhoon Tembin when it passes nearby Con Dao The coupled model running in Chapter is applied here with the wind filed from the hypothetical typhoon, while keeping all of the other input parameters the same This time the place of interest is the western-most catch spot of squid in Fig 5.2 The main purpose of this study is to use the spatial wave distribution under the extreme weather condition to determine, when and where the fishermen should start going back to save their life by using their wooden fishing boat 76 Figure 5.3 Two similar strong typhoons approached Mekong Delta after 20 years Table 5.1 shows the relationship between the wind-wave level and wind speed (Beaufort scale) The fishing boats with the length up to 18m were designed to work normally during the level wind-wave, and can safely go to the shelter under the condition of level wind-wave (Le Minh Phu, 2014) According to Table 5.1 (UNISHIP, 2012) the wave height that is considered safe for small wooden fishing boats when escaping from the typhoon effecting area is below 4.0 m Research Institute for Marine Fisheries, 2009 mentioned that level is the max wave level (5.5 m) that the small wooden fishing boat (with the outer layer skin thickness is around 4.4 – 5.4 cm) can endure Thus, in this study, the later higher value of 5.5 m wave height will be used as the warning level at the chosen Squid spot Table 5.1 The relation between wind speeds and wave heights Wind-wave Wind level according level to Beaufort scale 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 Wind speed, m/s Wave height, m 0.3 - 1.5 1.6 – 3.3 3.4 – 5.4 5.5 – 7.9 8.0 – 10.7 10.8 – 13.8 13.9 – 17.1 17.2 – 20.7 20.8 – 24.4 24.5 – 28.4 28.5 – 32.6 32.7 – 36.9 0.1 0.2 – 0.3 0.6 – 1.0 1.0 – 1.5 2.0 – 2.5 3.0 – 4.0 4.0 – 5.5 5.5 – 7.5 7.0 – 10.0 9.0 – 12.5 11.5 – 14.0 14 - >16 77 Fig 5.4 shows the wave spatial distribution from the results of the simulation of hypothetical scenarios The maximum value in the scale bar is fixed at 5.5 m to easily recognize when the first 5.5m wave approach the spot at 21h 1st November 1997, 10h before when the typhoon crossed Con Dao The distance from Squid spot to Con Dao is around 150 km, thus the typical wooden boat needs also at least 10 hours (with max speed 15km/h) to arrive at the shelter in Con Dao However, the typhoon will catch them there Hence, the warning should be triggered much earlier than 10 hours prior to the typhoon arrival At that time the typhoon is located more than 300km away from Con Dao Fig 5.5 describes the distribution of max wave height in Con Dao is over m focusing on the northwest part of the island According to this Figure, the South and West parts of Con Dao suffered lower waves than other parts, thus this area is suitable to design as the shelter for arriving boats Figure 5.4 The wave spatial distribution caused by hypothetical typhoon at 21:00 1st November 1997 (Vietnamese local time).The dark red color depicts the area of 5.5m and higher wave, the circle is the fishing spot particularly for squid 78 Figure 5.5 Wave-height distribution when hypothetical typhoon crossed the south side of Con Dao at 7:00 a.m on November 2nd, 1997 (Vietnamese local time) 79 Chapter Conclusion The literature review and the typhoon track analysis reveal the risk from typhoons and typhoon induced disasters in Southern Vietnam cannot be ignored even though the frequency of typhoons is low However, the social situation regarding coastal disaster perception in this area has not been clearly investigated This study describes the field survey in terms of local people's awareness and preparedness in Mekong Delta and Con Dao island about typhoons and storm surges Typhoon Linda in 1997 is an unforgettable event that many respondents mentioned during interview and is determined the event that significantly improved local people's perception of coastal disasters Even though resident in Mekong Delta and Con Dao island show the relatively high awareness on typhoon and storm surge, they are still not wellprepared to cope with those events that reflecting by the low percentage of interviewee joining the evacuation drills The education for the young generation is also underestimated and needs to be improved This study also proposed the two-way interaction surge-wave model to investigate storm surges and high waves caused by typhoons This coupled model shows the advantage when evaluating additional water rise caused by an interaction between two typhoon induced components, namely wave setup and storm surge The reliability of the coupled model is proved when reproduced increasing water level and significant wave height, which is more accurate than the results from the single model when compared with observed data from historical event, Typhoon Jebi in 2018 The good agreement with measured data also shows the reliability of JMA GPV wind data when using as the input wind field for the numerical model Due to the lack of wind information in Vietnam, the Typhoon Linda was run by the parametric typhoon model The results also show acceptable agreement with available observed data at the tidal stations in the Mekong Delta and at the wave stations in the Gulf of Thailand during Typhoon Linda It provides the 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and interviewed a variety of local residents and officials in Southern Vietnam The extent of storm surge caused by Typhoon Linda was also investigated by interviewing those who... Source of information on storm surge and typhoons in Southern Vietnam (n= 172) 2.6 Conclusion It appears that coastal hazards in Southern Vietnam including Mekong Delta and Con Dao island, particularly