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Báo cáo này đầy đủ thông tin về ngành Dược phẩm và sản phẩm chăm sóc sức khỏe ở Việt Nam trong 5 năm qua và dự báo đến 2019. Trong đó có cả thông tin về thị phần của các DN sản xuất thuốc hàng
Q1 2010 www.businessmonitor.com VietNam pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2019 ISSN 1748-2305 Published by Business Monitor International Ltd Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Including 5-year and 10-year industry forecasts by BMI Part of BMI’s Industry Survey & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Publication date: December 2009 Business Monitor International Mermaid House, Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 email: subs@businessmonitor.com web: http://www.businessmonitor.com © 2009 Business Monitor International All rights reserved All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 CONTENTS Executive Summary Vietnam Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT Vietnam Political Swot Vietnam Economic Swot Vietnam Business Environment Swot Vietnam – Business Environment Ratings 10 Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings For Q110 10 Limits Of Potential Returns 11 Risks To Realisation Of Returns 11 Market Summary 13 Regulatory Regime .15 Pharmaceutical Advertising 15 Intellectual Property Environment 16 IP Shortcomings 16 Counterfeit Drugs 18 Other Regulatory Issues 19 Pricing And Reimbursement Regime 20 Industry Trends And Developments 23 Epidemiology 23 Healthcare Financing 27 Healthcare Insurance 28 Healthcare And Pharmaceutical Reforms 29 Foreign Partnerships 30 Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector 31 Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector 33 Traditional Medicines 34 Retail Sector 35 Table: Key Aspects Of Good Pharmacy Practice (GPP) In Developing Countries 37 Research And Development 37 Vaccine Sector 39 Biotechnology Sector 41 Industry Forecast Scenario 43 Overall Market Forecast 43 Key Growth Factors – Industry 45 Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 47 Economic Activity 47 Vietnam – Economic Activity, 2007-2014 49 Prescription Drug Market Forecast 50 OTC Medicine Market Forecast 52 Patented Product Market Forecast 54 Generic Drug Market Forecast 55 Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 56 Medical Device Market Forecast 58 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Other Healthcare Data Forecasts 60 Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 61 Competitive Landscape 62 Company Profiles 64 Leading Multinational Manufacturers 64 Pfizer 64 Sanofi-Aventis 66 Novartis 68 Merck & Co 70 Indigenous Manufacturer Profiles 71 Vietnam Pharmaceutical Corporation (Vinapharm) 71 Vietnam OPV Pharmaceutical Co 73 Vietnam Pharmaceutical Joint Stock Company (Ampharco) 75 Vidipha Central Pharmaceutical Joint Stock Company 77 Country Snapshot: Vietnam Demographic Data 78 Section 1: Population 78 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 78 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 79 Section 2: Education And Healthcare 79 Table: Education, 2002-2005 79 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 79 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 80 Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004 80 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 80 BMI Methodology 81 How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 81 Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology 82 Ratings Overview 82 Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 83 Weighting 84 Table: Weighting Of Components 84 Sources 84 Forecast Tables 85 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Executive Summary Over recent months, Vietnam’s economy has suffered from negative macroeconomic factors like many of its Asian neighbours A decline in demand from Western countries and a devaluation of the dong against the US dollar has affected its export industries, with a knock-on effect on employment and disposable income in Vietnam As a result, spending on pharmaceuticals has declined while counterfeit medicines have gained ground as consumers look for cheaper alternatives Despite these macroeconomic influences there is still plenty of scope for drug expenditure growth in Vietnam and BMI forecasts that the market will grow from US$1.4bn in 2008 to US$6.1bn in 2019 Over the forecast period, Vietnam’s population dynamics will change considerably, with a positive impact on the pharmaceutical market Vietnam’s young population will age, life expectancy will be raised, and by 2019, BMI projects that Vietnam’s population will increase from 86.8mn in 2008 to just over 100mn These factors will all contribute to boosting demand and consequent per-capita spending on pharmaceuticals is expected to rise from US$16.13 in 2008 to US$60.30 in 2019 Vietnam’s local pharmaceutical industry will have a crucial role to play in pharmaceutical market expansion Improvements to manufacturing plants, adherence to international quality standards and partnerships with multinational firms are essential to ensure Vietnamese firms can meet government plans to provide for 60% of domestic demand by 2010 Much progress has been made in recent months, such as the announcement that Vietnam is now self-sufficient in terms of domestic measles vaccine production Other positive developments, such as preclinical trials for a swine flu vaccine manufactured by the Pasteur Institute, are signs of progress among local drugmakers Pricing of medicines still remains a contentious issue, with a recent academic report published in Southern Med Review in September 2009, suggesting that drug prices, even those of generics, are too expensive for the majority of Vietnamese people Additionally, the study found that in many cases drug availability varied considerably across the country In this respect, the role of the Drug Administration of Vietnam (DAV) continues to be important, as its price listings enable health departments to compare the cost of different drugs on the market before purchasing Such transparency should help eliminate the widely different mark-ups enforced by pharmaceutical distributors across the country There are still problems restricting Vietnam’s development, namely the sub-standard intellectual property (IP) regime, corruption in the healthcare sector and the fact that much of the population has very low income and lives in rural areas, meaning that per-capita consumption remains low As a result, Vietnam sits close to the bottom of BMI’s Business Environment Ratings for the Asia Pacific region, with belowaverage scores in every category © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Vietnam Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT Strengths Significant growth potential, given a population of approximately 86.8mn in 2008, which will grow to 99.mn by 2018 The government’s commitment to developing the health sector Sizeable local generics sector, which is being encouraged by the government Strong traditional medicines segment with potential to improve the non-prescription drugs market in the longer term, as long as sufficient investment in extraction technologies can be found Weaknesses One of the least developed pharmaceutical markets in Asia, with low per capita spending on drugs Patent law notably below international standards Counterfeit drugs account for a significant amount of market consumption Little distinction made between prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) drugs, with most medicines available without a prescription Complex drug pricing policy biased towards local drug producers Import-reliant market, especially in terms of high-tech products and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), which makes it vulnerable to international currency movements Domestic companies being forced to comply with international manufacturing standards (GMP), at a considerable expense Underdeveloped primary care services continuing to hamper access to medicines and improved product market penetration Population concentrated in rural, rather than urban areas, preventing access to modern drugs and encouraging dependence upon traditional medicines Opportunities The ASEAN harmonisation initiative, including the adoption of Western regulatory standards such as ICH and WHO guidelines Introduction of five-year exclusivity for clinical dossier data encouraging researchbased multinationals The end of the price freeze has the potential to boost values despite a possible fall in volumes Radical restructuring of the pharmaceutical industry with an emphasis on foreign investment and biotechnology If investment can be found for technological improvements then there is great potential in the TCM market Improvements in pricing and regulatory environment to boost foreign companies interest and investment in the country Full WTO membership will improve the trading climate and potentially, in the longer term, redress pharmaceutical trade issues Threats Government resistance to aligning patent law fully with international standards deterring multinational sector expansion The government increasingly interfering in the industry, protecting indigenous firms through the use of legal trade barriers, which will affect competitiveness With a notably fragile regional economy, Vietnam is increasingly susceptible to regional and global economic fluctuations The legalisation of parallel imports negatively impacting performance of patented drugs © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Vietnam Political Swot Strengths The Communist Party government appears committed to market-oriented reforms, although specific economic policies will undoubtedly be discussed at the 2011 National Congress The one-party system is generally conducive to short-term political stability Relations with the US are generally improving, and Washington sees Hanoi as a potential geopolitical ally in South East Asia Weaknesses Corruption among government officials poses a major threat to the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party There is increasing (albeit still limited) public dissatisfaction with the leadership’s tight control over political dissent Opportunities The government recognises the threat that corruption poses to its legitimacy, and has acted to clamp down on graft among party officials Vietnam has allowed legislators to become more vocal in criticising government policies This is opening up opportunities for more checks and balances within the one-party system Threats The slowdown in growth in 2009 and 2010 is likely to weigh on public acceptance of the one-party system, and street demonstrations to protest economic conditions could develop into a full-on challenge of undemocractic rule Although strong domestic control will ensure little change to Vietnam’s political scene in the next few years, over the longer term, the one-party-state will probably be unsustainable Relations with China have deteriorated over the past year due to Beijing’s more assertive stance over disputed islands in the South China Sea and domestic criticism of a large Chinese investment into a bauxite mining project in the central highlands, which could potentially cause widespread environmental damage © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Vietnam Economic Swot Strengths Vietnam has been one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia in recent years, with GDP growth averaging 7.6% annually between 2000 and 2007 The economic boom has lifted many Vietnamese out of poverty, with the official poverty rate in the country falling from 58% in 1993 to 20% in 2004 Weaknesses Vietnam still suffers from substantial trade, current account and fiscal deficits, leaving the economy vulnerable as the global economy continues to suffer in 2010 The fiscal picture is clouded by considerable ‘off-the-books’ spending The heavily-managed and weak dong currency reduces incentives to improve quality of exports, and also serves to keep import costs high, thus contributing to inflationary pressures Opportunities WTO membership has given Vietnam access to both foreign markets and capital, while making Vietnamese enterprises stronger through increased competition The government will in spite of the current macroeconomic woes, continue to move forward with market reforms, including privatisation of state-owned enterprises, and liberalising the banking sector Urbanisation will continue to be a long-term growth driver The UN forecasts the urban population to rise from 29% of the population to more than 50% by the early 2040s Threats Inflation and deficit concerns have caused some investors to re-assess their hitherto upbeat view of Vietnam If the government focuses too much on stimulating growth and fails to root out inflationary pressure, it risks prolonging macroeconomic instability, which could lead to a potential crisis Prolonged macroeconomic instability could prompt the authorities to put reforms on hold, as they struggle to stabilise the economy © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Vietnam Business Environment Swot Strengths Vietnam has a large, skilled and low-cost workforce, that has made the country attractive to foreign investors Vietnam’s location – its proximity to China and South East Asia, and its good sea links – makes it a good base for foreign companies to export to the rest of Asia, and beyond Weaknesses Vietnam’s infrastructure is still weak Roads, railways and ports are inadequate to cope with the country’s economic growth and links with the outside world Vietnam remains one of the world’s most corrupt countries Its score in Transparency International’s 2008 Corruption Perceptions Index was 2.7, placing it in 20th place in the Asia-Pacific region Opportunities Vietnam is increasingly attracting investment from key Asian economies, such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan This offers the possibility of the transfer of high-tech skills and knowhow Vietnam is pressing ahead with the privatisation of state-owned enterprises and the liberalisation of the banking sector This should offer foreign investors new entry points Threats Ongoing trade disputes with the US, and the general threat of American protectionism, which will remain a concern Labour unrest remains a lingering threat A failure by the authorities to boost skills levels could leave Vietnam a second-rate economy for an indefinite period © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Vietnam Pharmaceutical Joint Stock Company (Ampharco) SWOT Analysis Strengths One of Vietnam’s largest companies Government encouragement of generics Strong OTC portfolio supported with comprehensive PR campaigns Weaknesses Most units facing financial difficulties Need to comply with international standards requiring substantial financial investment Need to import most of raw materials for pharmaceutical production, and prices have been rising recently placing pressure on producers Opportunities Plans for a major overhaul of the domestic pharmaceutical regulatory environment, with a particular focus on encouraging the domestic manufacture of drugs in order to reduce the country’s dependence on imports Relaxation of price freeze to improve product revenues Government push for self-sufficiency in pharmaceutical production, with goals of domestic production meeting 60% of national demand by 2010 Improvement of regulatory climate following the WTO accession to attract foreign investment Threats Complex and discriminatory pricing policy Vietnam is increasingly susceptible to economic fluctuations Domestic production and the trading of pharmaceutical products facing difficulties due to rising prices of pharmaceutical materials and medicines in the world market Overview Ampharco is one of the more prominent generics producers in Vietnam In 2007 Ampharco obtained the right to import and export pharmaceuticals directly from and to foreign partners The company also operates a subsidiary in the US Ampharco has a long history for an emerging market drug maker The forerunner of the company was ThaiVan Laboratories, which was founded in 1969, during the height of the Vietnam War In addition to manufacturing, ThaiVan Laboratories was the exclusive distributor for several European Contacts Ampharco Lot.20B, No.1 Street Tan Binh Industrial Park Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam Tel: +84 26 968 8808 Fax: +84 26 968 6806 www.ampharco.com pharmaceutical firms, including Allard (France), KaliChemie (Germany) and Farmitalia (Italy) Recent Activities The goal of Vietnam Pharmaceutical Joint Stock Company (Ampharco) to export its products to the US and other foreign markets has received a boost after investment funds were received from Vietnam Equity Holding (VEH) The new resources will be used to restructure Ampharco’s finances and ‘improve competitive capacity’ © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 75 Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Acting under the supervision of investment fund management company Anpha Capital, VEH now owns 10% of Ampharco’s issued shares Given that Ampharco’s charter capital was VND87bn (US$5.5mn) as of December 2007, BMI estimates that VEH spent US$550,000 on the investment, which is a shrewd move in our opinion This is confirmed by Ampharco’s profit projection It expects to record net profit of VND50bn (US$3.2mn) this year, an increase of over 200% on the 2007 figure Arguably the most significant development to affect Ampharco was its transformation into a joint stock company in 2003 This enabled the firm to attract investment and expand operations During June 2007 Ampharco opened one of the country’s first GMP-accredited facilities, which will allow it to export to developed markets Demonstrating the scale of commitment, it costs US$15mn to build the plant, which boasts a special air conditioning system that prevents contamination between different areas of the building Ampharco also holds GSP certificates In 2008, Vietnam Equity Holding (VEH) announced a strategic partnership with Ampharco Under the agreement, VEH acquired 10% of Ampharco’s shares and also pledged to help the company to restructure and increase its capacity VEH is an investment firm which specialises in the Vietnamese market Ampharco, meanwhile, is looking to expand and export products to the US and also develop its local research and manufacturing facilities Product Portfolio By 1979 Ampharco’s product portfolio – which included K-Cort (corticoid), vitamin Campofort, vitamin B complex Becofort and beta-blocker Timol (timolol) – had become well known in Vietnam Nowadays, the company has products in a number of therapeutic areas including cardiovascular, dermatology, genitory-urinary, antibiotics and allergy and immune system Some of its products are allergic treatment Cezil (cefprozil) and Mepraz (omeprazole), indicated for stomach ulcers Other products include consumer healthcare treatments Bosamin (herb extract) and nicotine replacement therapy Nicostop Boasting a strong OTC portfolio across several therapeutic areas, Ampharco supports its consumer brands with comprehensive advertising campaigns Expertise in self-medication means Ampharco is well positioned in the case of Rx to OTC switches © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 76 Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Vidipha Central Pharmaceutical Joint Stock Company SWOT Analysis Strengths One of Vietnam’s more prominent pharmaceutical companies Financial backing from recent IPO Strong export portfolio Weaknesses Most units facing financial difficulties Low patient purchasing power and insufficient healthcare funding Need to comply with international standards requiring substantial financial investment Opportunities Plans for a major overhaul of the domestic pharmaceutical regulatory environment, with a particular focus on encouraging the domestic manufacture of drugs in order to reduce the country’s dependence on imports Improvement of regulatory climate following the WTO accession to attract foreign investment Relaxation of price freeze to improve product revenues Healthcare modernisation initiatives Could benefit from government plans to increase domestic pharmaceutical production to meet 60% of Vietnam’s national domestic requirements in 2010 Threats Complex and discriminatory pricing policy Vietnam being increasingly susceptible to economic fluctuations Increased competition following WTO entry Overview Contacts Vidipha is one of the more prominent pharmaceutical companies in Vietnam Vidipha In June 2006 Vidipha revealed its plan to raise US$2.3mn in an initial public offering (IPO) of more than 1mn shares The company produces coated 19-21 Nguyen Van Troi P 12, Q Phu Nhuan tablets and solutions for injections and exports to Russia and Iraq, as well as Vietnam a number of South East Asian countries In 2008, the Drug Testing Institute Tel +84 88 440 448 in Ho Chi Minh City announced that it had discovered a number of fake Fax +84 88 440 446 Ampicilin tablets which had been marketed by Vidipha www.vidipha.com.vn In 2008, Vidipha posted positive results, with post tax profits of VND27.5bn (US$1.5mn) and y-o-y growth of 8% © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 77 Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Country Snapshot: Vietnam Demographic Data Section 1: Population Population By Age, 2005 (mn) Population By Age, 2005 and 2030 (m n, total) 70 -74 70-74 60 -6 60-64 50 -54 50-54 40 -4 40-44 30 -3 30-34 20 -2 20-24 10-14 10-14 0-4 0-4 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 Male 2.0 4.0 6.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 2030 Female 5.0 10.0 2005 Source: UN Population Division Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 2005 2010f 2020f 2030f Dependent population, % of total 34.1 29.9 30.4 31.2 Dependent population, total, ‘000 28,318 26,225 30,950 34,499 Active population, % of total 65.8 70.0 69.5 68.7 Active population, total, ‘000 54,650 61,263 70,706 75,927 Youth population*, % of total 28.8 25.0 23.4 20.3 Youth population*, total, ‘000 23,972 21,887 23,807 22,508 Pensionable population, % of total 5.2 4.9 7.0 10.8 Pensionable population, total, ‘000 4,346 4,338 7,143 11,991 f = forecast * Youth = under 15 Source: UN Population Division © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 78 Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 2005 2010f 2020f 2030f Urban population, % of total 26.7 29.4 34.7 41.8 Rural population, % of total 73.3 70.6 65.3 58.2 Urban population, total, ‘000 22,509 26,395 35230 46,123 Rural population, total, ‘000 61,729 63,323 66426 64,306 Total population, ‘000 84,238 89,718 101,656 110,429 f = forecast Source: UN Population Division Section 2: Education And Healthcare Table: Education, 2002-2005 2002/2003 2004/2005 Gross enrolment, primary 98 93 Gross enrolment, secondary 73 75 Gross enrolment, tertiary 10 16 Adult literacy, male, % na 93.9 Adult literacy, female, % na 86.9 Gross enrolment is the number of pupils enrolled in a given level of education regardless of age expressed as a percentage of the population in the theoretical age group for that level of education na = not available Source: UNESCO Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 2005 2010f 2020f 2030f Life expectancy at birth, males (years) 68.4 69.9 74.2 75.8 Life expectancy at birth, females (years) 72.4 73.9 78.4 80.0 Life expectancy estimated at 2005 f = forecast Source: UNESCO © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 79 Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Employment, ‘000 38,120 38,368 39,000 40,162 41,176 42,316 – % change y-o-y 3.1 0.6 1.6 2.9 2.5 2.7 – male 19,029 19,292 19,744 20,356 20,959 21,649 – female 19,091 19,076 19,257 19,807 20,217 20,666 — female, % of total 50.0 49.7 49.3 49.3 49.1 48.8 Unemployment, ‘000 909 886 1,107 871 949 926 – male 439 468 458 398 402 410 – female 470 418 650 473 547 517 – unemployment rate, % 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.1 Source: ILO Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 2000 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2012f 110 265 301 368 386 427 Poorest 20%, expenditure per capita 49 119 136 166 174 192 Richest 20%, expenditure per capita 243 587 668 815 855 946 Richest 10%, expenditure per capita 316 763 868 1,060 1,112 1,230 Middle 60%, expenditure per capita 85 206 235 286 301 332 Consumer expenditure per capita 556 1,196 1,297 na na na Poorest 20%, expenditure per capita 250 538 583 na na na Richest 20%, expenditure per capita 1,231 2,649 2,872 na na na Richest 10%, expenditure per capita 1,600 3,444 3,734 na na na 433 931 1,009 na na na Consumer expenditure per capita Purchasing power parity Middle 60%, expenditure per capita e/f = BMI estimate/forecast na = not available Source: World Bank, Country data; BMI calculation © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 80 Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 BMI Methodology How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts Pharmaceutical sub-sector forecasts are generated using a top-down approach from BMI’s Drug Expenditure Forecast Model The semi-automated tool incorporates historic trends, macroeconomic variables, epidemiological forecasts and analyst input, which are weighted by relevance to each market The following elements are fed into the model: BMI’s historic pharmaceutical market data, which has been collected from a range of sources including: – regulatory agencies; – pharmaceutical trade associations; – company press releases and annual reports; – subscription information providers; – local news sources; – information from market research firms that is in the public domain Data that has been validated by BMI’s pharmaceutical and healthcare analysts using a composite approach, which scores data sources by reliability in order to ensure accuracy and consistency of historic data Five key macroeconomic and demographic variables, which have been demonstrated through regression analysis to have the greatest influence on the pharmaceutical market These have been forecast by BMI’s Country Risk analysts using an in-house econometric model The burden of disease in a country This is forecast in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using BMI’s Burden of Disease Database, which is based on the World Health Organization’s burden of disease projections and incorporates World Bank and IMF data Subjective input and validation by BMI’s pharmaceutical and healthcare analysts to take into account key events that have affected the pharmaceutical market in the recent past or that are expected to have an impact on the country’s pharmaceutical market over the next five years These may include policy/reimbursement decisions, new product launches or increased competition from generics © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 81 Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology Our approach in assessing the Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings is threefold First, we have defined the risks rated to capture the operational dangers to companies operating in this industry Second, we attempt where possible to identify objective indicators that may serve as proxies for issues/trends Finally, we use BMI’s proprietary Country Risk Ratings (CRR) to ensure only the aspects most relevant to the industry are included Overall, the system, which is integrated with all the industries covered by BMI, offers an industry-leading insight into the prospects/risks for companies across the globe Ratings Overview Ratings System Conceptually, the new ratings system divides into two distinct areas: Limits of potential returns: Evaluation of sector’s size and growth potential in each state, and also broader industry/state characteristics that may inhibit its development Risks to realisation of those returns: Evaluation of industry-specific dangers and those emanating from the state’s political/economic profile that call into question the likelihood of anticipated returns being realised over the assessed time period Indicators The following indicators have been used Overall, the rating uses three subjectively measured indicators, and 41 separate indicators/datasets © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 82 Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators Indicator Rationale Limits to potential returns Market structure Market expenditure, US$bn Market expenditure per capita, US$ Sector value growth, % y-o-y Denotes breadth of pharmaceutical market Large markets score higher than smaller ones Denotes depth of pharmaceutical market High value markets score better than low value ones Denotes sector dynamism Scores based on annual average growth over five-year forecast period Country structure Urban-rural split Pensionable population, % of total Population growth, 2003-2015 Urbanisation is used as a proxy for development of medical facilities Predominantly rural therefore states score lower Proportion of the population over 65 years of age States with aging populations tend to have higher per-capita expenditure Fast-growing states suggest better long-term trend growth for all industries Overall score for country structure is also affected by the coverage of the power transmission network across the state Risks to potential returns Market risks Intellectual property (IP) laws Markets with fair and enforced IP regulations score higher than those with endemic counterfeiting Policy/reimbursements Markets with full and equitable access to modern medicines score higher than those with minimal state support for healthcare Approvals process High scores awarded to markets with a swift appraisal system Those that are weighted in favour of local industry or are corrupt score lower Country risk Economic structure Policy continuity Bureaucracy Legal framework Corruption Rating from CRR evaluates the structural balance of the economy, noting issues such as reliance on single sectors for exports/growth, and past economic volatility Rating from CRR evaluates the risk of a sharp change in the broad direction of government policy Rating from CRR denotes ease of conducting business in the state Rating from CRR denotes the strength of legal institutions in each state Security of investment can be a key risk in some emerging markets Rating from CRR denotes the risk of additional illegal costs/possibility of opacity in tendering/business operations affecting companies’ ability to compete Source: BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 83 Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Weighting Given the number of indicators/datasets used, it would be wholly inappropriate to give all subcomponents equal weight Consequently, the following weight has been adopted Table: Weighting Of Components Component Weighting Limits of potential returns 60% – Pharmaceutical market – 75% – Country structure – 25% Risks to realisation of potential returns 40% – Market risks – 60% – Country risk – 40% Source: BMI Sources Sources used include national industry associations, government ministries, global health organisations, officially released pharmaceutical company results and international and national news agencies © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 84 11.33 10.10 1.59 Per capita drug market expenditure (US$) Drug expenditure % GDP 1.57 13.01 17,908.4 1.11 2007 1.56 16.13 23,003.7 1.40 2008 1.78 17.31 27,265.0 1.52 2009f 1.76 18.95 32,113.8 1.69 2010f 1.85 22.18 37,595.3 2.01 2011f 47.29 © Business Monitor International Ltd 25.90 f = forecast Source: World Health Organization (WHO), BMI Public sector health expenditure (%) 0.82 37.95 Public sector health expenditure (US$bn) Health expenditure per capita (US$) 6.55 5.97 Health expenditure (% GDP) 3.99 32.33 1.29 63,810.0 3.16 50,056.4 Health expenditure (US$bn) Health expenditure (VNDbn) 2006 2005 39.32 1.99 59.01 7.10 81,204.6 5.05 2007 Table: Vietnam Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 6.36 2008 1.93 26.02 43,494.4 2.38 2012f 35.85 2.28 73.23 7.08 104,440.5 f = forecast Source: Drug Administration of Vietnam (DAV), Vietnam Ministry of Health, BMI 1.57 15,283.9 13,315.3 Drug market expenditure (VNDbn) 0.96 0.84 2006 Drug market expenditure (US$bn) 2005 Table: Vietnam Pharmaceutical Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 38.80 2.48 72.64 7.46 114,422.5 6.39 2009f 2.03 30.32 49,936.9 2.81 2013f 41.82 3.15 84.47 7.84 143,156.7 7.53 2010f 2.13 34.93 56,703.3 3.29 2014f 4.34 2016f 8.89 44.90 3.99 98.30 8.22 166,616.9 10.63 2012f 48.01 5.11 116.10 8.60 12.42 2013f 2.35 55.44 83,953.4 5.51 2018f 51.13 6.35 133.84 8.97 220,467.4 2.33 50.21 77,499.1 4.92 2017f 194,079.4 2.29 44.92 70,593.6 2011f 2.22 39.79 63,581.4 3.80 2015f 54.23 7.81 153.11 9.33 248,527.1 14.41 2014f 2.33 60.30 89,480.3 6.07 2019f Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Page 85 56.37 116.86 14.53 23.37 15.70 64.42 57.21 29.37 83.36 Blood and blood forming organ drug sales Cardiovascular system drug sales Dermatological drug sales Genito-urinary system and sex hormone sales Systemic hormonal preparation, excluding sex hormones and insulins, sales Anti-infective for systemic use sales Antineoplastic and immunomodulating agent sales Musculoskeletal system drug sales Nervous system drug sales © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 86 8.77 Other prescription drug sales 10.05 11.17 53.91 0.83 95.54 33.66 65.57 73.83 17.99 26.78 16.65 133.93 64.60 79.01 11.78 13.09 63.17 0.98 111.95 39.44 76.84 86.51 21.08 31.39 19.51 156.94 75.70 92.59 71.90 12,876.15 10,928.01 71.50 0.80 2007 0.68 2006 14.88 16.54 79.83 1.23 141.48 49.85 97.10 109.33 26.64 39.66 24.66 198.33 95.66 117.00 72.30 16,631.66 1.01 2008 16.26 18.07 87.21 1.35 154.57 54.46 106.08 119.44 29.11 43.33 26.94 216.68 104.51 127.83 72.60 19,794.39 1.11 2009f 18.09 20.11 97.04 1.50 171.99 60.59 118.04 132.90 32.39 48.21 29.98 241.10 116.29 142.23 72.80 23,378.87 1.23 2010f 21.52 23.92 115.44 1.79 204.59 72.08 140.41 158.10 38.53 57.35 35.66 286.80 138.33 169.19 73.00 27,444.53 1.46 2011f f = forecast Source: Drug Administration of Vietnam (DAV), Vietnam Ministry of Health, BMI 9.75 Sensory organ drug sales 47.04 68.94 Alimentary tract and metabolism drug sales Respiratory system drug sales 71.00 Prescription drug market as % total 0.73 9,453.87 Prescription drug market (VNDbn) Antiparasitic product, insecticide and repellent sales 0.60 Prescription drug market (US$bn) 2005 25.61 28.47 137.40 2.13 243.51 85.79 167.13 188.17 45.86 68.26 42.44 341.36 164.65 201.38 73.10 31,794.39 1.74 2012f Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn unless stated) 30.27 33.65 162.42 2.51 287.85 101.41 197.56 222.43 54.21 80.69 50.17 403.51 194.63 238.05 73.20 36,553.84 2.06 2013f 35.45 39.40 190.16 2.94 337.01 118.74 231.30 260.43 63.47 94.48 58.74 472.44 227.87 278.71 73.35 41,591.87 2.41 2014f - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 73.48 46,719.62 2.79 2015f - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 73.61 51,963.93 3.20 2016f - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 73.74 57,147.84 3.63 2017f - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 73.87 62,016.40 4.07 2018f - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 74.00 66,215.41 4.49 2019f Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 29.00 28.50 28.10 5,032.26 0.31 2007 27.70 6,372.02 0.39 2008 27.40 7,470.61 0.42 2009f 27.20 8,734.96 0.46 2010f 13,315.31 24.10 Patented market (VNDbn) Patented market as % total market 24.30 15,283.93 0.23 2006 24.40 17,908.41 0.27 2007 24.10 23,003.68 0.34 2008 23.80 27,265.00 0.36 2009f 23.43 32,113.83 0.40 2010f 23.04 37,595.25 0.46 0.54 2012f 22.54 0.62 2013f 22.02 0.71 2014f 21.55 0.80 2015f 21.04 0.89 2016f 26.39 18,629.65 1.15 2016f 20.51 70,593.58 26.52 16,861.79 1.01 2015f 63,581.41 26.65 15,111.43 0.88 2014f 56,703.30 26.80 13,383.10 0.75 2013f 49,936.93 26.90 11,699.99 0.64 2012f 43,494.38 27.00 2011f f = forecast Source: Drug Administration of Vietnam (DAV), Vietnam Ministry of Health, BMI 0.20 Patented market (US$bn) 2005 Table: Patented Product Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 0.54 2011f 10,150.72 f = forecast Source: Drug Administration of Vietnam (DAV), Vietnam Ministry of Health, BMI OTC market as % total market 0.27 0.24 3,861.44 OTC market (US$bn) OTC market (VNDbn) 4,355.92 2006 2005 Table: OTC Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 19.97 77,499.11 0.98 2017f 26.26 20,351.27 1.29 2017f 19.42 83,953.43 1.07 2018f 26.13 21,937.03 1.44 2018f 18.85 89,480.29 1.14 2019f 26.00 23,264.87 1.58 2019f Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 87 46.90 6,244.88 0.39 47.20 7,214.01 0.45 2006 47.50 8,506.49 0.53 2007 48.20 11,087.77 0.67 2008 48.80 13,305.32 0.74 2009f 49.37 15,856.05 0.83 2010f 530.70 544.00 18.40 -525.60 Imports Exports Balance © Business Monitor International Ltd na na Medical device market (VNDbn) Medical device market as % of total healthcare market 0.18 2006 4.54 3.96 3,209.00 0.20 2007 49.96 3.47 3,642.30 0.22 2008 -897.42 42.75 940.17 2009f 50.56 21,991.52 1.21 2012f 1.70 2014f 3.81 4,259.23 0.24 2009f -970.06 64.13 1,034.19 2011f 4,887.52 3.33 3.56 0.30 2013f 54.45 45,714.38 216.42 3.07 5,065.36 2.90 5,047.68 0.36 2013f -1,160.08 0.33 3.00 2018f 1,376.50 53.77 41,669.31 2.65 2017f 2012f -1,107.09 144.28 1,251.37 4,698.73 0.27 2010f -1,041.42 96.19 2012f 53.10 37,483.66 2.31 2016f 2011f 52.44 33,343.86 1.99 2015f 1,137.61 51.80 29,373.44 2010f 51.18 25,555.27 1.44 2013f na = not available f = forecast Source: Vietnam Ministry of Health, International Trade Administration, US Commercial Service, BMI na Medical device market (US$bn) 2005 28.50 854.70 2008 -826.20 2,904.11 -758.00 19.00 777.00 2007 Table: Medical Device Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts f = forecast Source: International Trade Centre (ITC), BMI -515.50 15.20 2006 2005 Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn) 1.00 2011f 18,783.22 f = forecast Source: Drug Administration of Vietnam (DAV), Vietnam Ministry of Health, BMI Generics market as % total market Generics market (VNDbn) Generics market (US$bn) 2005 Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 2.70 5,047.68 0.39 2014f -1,189.52 324.63 1,514.15 2014f 55.15 49,350.16 3.35 2019f Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010 Page 88 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner Further reproduction prohibited without permission ... SWOT Vietnam Political Swot Vietnam Economic Swot Vietnam Business Environment Swot Vietnam – Business Environment... expenditure growth in Vietnam and BMI forecasts that the market will grow from US$1.4bn in 2008 to US$6.1bn in 2019 Over the forecast period, Vietnam’s population dynamics will change considerably,... Profiles 71 Vietnam Pharmaceutical Corporation (Vinapharm) 71 Vietnam OPV Pharmaceutical Co 73 Vietnam Pharmaceutical Joint Stock Company