This page intentionally left blank Democracy from Above Since the momentous events of the late 1980s, democratic transition has been a widely studied phenomenon Most scholars who have investigated the causes and implications of the global trend to democracy have argued that domestic politics is the leading determinant in the success or failure of transitions to democracy Jon C Pevehouse argues that international factors, specifically regional organizations, play an important role in the transition to and endurance of democracy Domestic elites use membership of regional organizations to advance the cause of democracy since these organizations can manipulate the costs and benefits of democracy to important societal groups such as business elites or the military Six cases (Hungary, Peru, Greece, Paraguay, Guatemala, and Turkey) are used to examine the causal processes behind the statistical association between regional organizations and democratization These findings bridge international relations and comparative politics while also providing guidelines for policymakers who wish to use regional organizations to promote democracy j o n c pev e h o u s e is Associate Professor at the University of Wisconsin He has published in journals such as the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, International Organization, Journal of Politics, and Journal of Conflict Resolution Democracy from Above Regional organizations and democratization Jon C Pevehouse University of Wisconsin, Madison    Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge  , UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521844826 © Jon C Pevehouse 2005 This book is in copyright Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press First published in print format 2005 - - ---- eBook (EBL) --- eBook (EBL) - - ---- hardback --- hardback - - ---- paperback --- paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of s for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this book, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate Dedicated to my mother and father, who taught me the importance of education, hard work, and modesty; and who demonstrated the value of all three Contents List of figures and tables Acknowledgments Abbreviations Democratization and international relations page viii xi xiii Regional organizations, the transition to and the consolidation of democracy 15 The supply-side of democratization and initial tests 46 Regional organizations and the transition to democracy 77 Regional organizations and the transition to democracy: evidence from cases 111 Regional organizations and democratic consolidation 154 Regional organizations and the consolidation of democracy: evidence from cases 169 Conclusion 199 References Index 219 243 vii Figures and tables Figures 3.1 Examples of Polity98 democracy scores for various nation-states 3.2 Polity98 distribution of regime type over time 3.3 Gasiorowski regime type distribution over time 3.4 Number of transitions per year 3.5 Examples of IOScore for various international organizations 3.6 IO involvement over time page 60 61 64 66 71 72 Tables 2.1 2.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 viii Transition mechanisms Consolidation mechanisms Correlation among regime type variables Correlation among regime transition variables Correlation among democratic breakdown variables International organizations included in the primary analyses, 1950–92 Descriptive statistics of IOs and democratization Successful consolidation and IO involvement Estimates of the determinants of the transition to democracy, 1950–92 Percentage change in probability of transition Estimates of the determinants of liberalization, 1950–92 Percentage change in probability of liberalization Estimates of the determinants of democratic completion, 1950–92 Probabilities of completion of democratic transition 27 44 65 66 67 68 73 74 86 86 94 95 98 99 ... Regional organizations and the transition to democracy 77 Regional organizations and the transition to democracy: evidence from cases 111 Regional organizations and democratic consolidation 154 Regional. .. Politics, and Journal of Conflict Resolution Democracy from Above Regional organizations and democratization Jon C Pevehouse University of Wisconsin, Madison    Cambridge, ... International Organizations and Democratization , International Organization 56 (Summer 2002): 515–49 and “With a Little Help from My Friends? Regional Organizations and the Consolidation of Democracy ,