Ảnh hưởng của chiến tranh thương mại Mỹ Trung đến xuất khẩu hàng hoá Việt Nam sang Mỹ

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Đề án chỉ ra các động cơ từ chiến tranh thương mại Mỹ Trung, từ đó phân tích ảnh hưởng lên hoạt động xuất khẩu của Việt Nam sang Mỹ. Bên cạnh đó còn cảnh báo về sự đồng nhất trong mối quan hệ giữa Việt Nam Mỹ và Trung Quốc Mỹ, dẫn đến nguy cơ về các chính sách bảo vệ thương mại của Mỹ đối với Việt Nam DA NANG UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS FACULTY  SCHEME IMPACT OF THE U.S – CHINA TRADE DISPUTE ON VIET NAM’S MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO THE U.S Instructor: PhD Huynh Thi Dieu Linh Author: Ly Thanh Hang Class: 42K01.3CLC Da Nang, November 2019 LIST OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT CHAPTER INTRODUCTION .2 CHAPTER CONTEXT OF THE U.S – CHINA TRADE DISPUTE 2.1 Main reasons 2.1.1 The U.S trade deficit with China 2.1.2 Intellectual properties rights violation 2.1.3 Threatens to global position 2.2 Retaliations from both sides – tariff measures CHAPTER ANALYSING IMPACT OF THE U.S – CHINA TRADE DISPUTE ON VIET NAM’S GOOD EXPORTS TO THE U.S 12 3.1 Merchandise exports from Viet Nam to the U.S before 2018 .12 3.1.1 Trade relations 12 3.1.2 Merchandise export structure 14 3.1.3 Notices for Vietnamese exporters before 2018 15 3.2 Merchandise exports after 2018 .16 3.2.1 Why the U.S – China trade dispute relates to Viet Nam? 16 3.2.2 Changes in merchandise exports structure 3.2.3 Issues arised under the impact of the trade dispute CHAPTER CONCLUSION LIMITATIONS 10 REFERENCES 11 i LIST OF CHARTS Chart Annual U.S trade deficit with China Chart Growth in merchant trade between Viet Nam and the U.S from 2001 to 2017 13 Chart Goods exported structure from Viet Nam to the U.S in 2017 14 Chart The U.S imports value from China before and after the trade dispute initiation 16 Chart Viet Nam export structure to the U.S in 2018 and 2019 (year-to-date value) in US Dollar LIST OF TABLES Table The U.S and China tariff measures 11 Table Growth ranking of merchandise exported from Viet Nam to the U.S in Thousand US Dollars ii ABSTRACT China and the United States are on the brink of tensions with each other on trade issues They take turn to execute measures to cause difficulties for each other to business not only to themselves but to the other parts of the world Vietnam has tight bounds with both the U.S and China since a very long time so Vietnam is also affected by the trade dispute The United States, who initiated trade tensions with China, has strong ties with Vietnam, especially in economic matters This scheme analyzes the U.S motivations when directly starting the tension with China, thereby looking closely at the impact that Vietnam has on exports to the U.S What Vietnam's exports to the U.S gain and lose in such context? and Is the United States targeting Vietnam because of its criticism in the same way that it has aggression against China? This project has studied and found that besides the positive trends in Vietnam's exports to the US, reflected in the mutant trade data in 2018 and until September 2019, it still exists many arised issues may be the driving forces for the U.S tensions with Vietnam The situation between Vietnam and the United States is relatively similar to the relationship between the United States and China earlier, which is partly from a neighbor trying to avoid the loss of trade protectionism that the U.S projected directly to China CHAPTER INTRODUCTION China and the United States have developed their economic relations for the last three decades, while total goods transactions increased significantly from $2 billions USD in 1979 to $579 billions USD in 2016 In spite of such mutual dependence, intensive dispute has also been upraised between the two nations Starting from 1980s, trade balance has been slanting in favor of China (Chen, 2014) Concerns of Americans are due to such trade deficit, together with China’s inappropriate policies against intellectual properties rights (IPR) protection, instinctive creativity and WTO commissions On the other hand, China also criticizes the U.S for irrational trade dispute and exports limitation on advanced – technology products Notwithstanding, the tension was more likely to be kept harmoniously and the two countries concentrates more on constructive progression The dispute has become real actions ever since Donald Trump was elected to be the President (Chunding Li, Chuantian He, Chuangwei Lin, 2018) China and the U.S take turn to execute measures to cause difficulties for each other to business not only to themselves but to the other parts of the world Remarkble effects can happen negatively to the economies of the warring parties The consequences may simultaneously affect third parties, more directly to nations that link economically to China and the U.S (Calì, 2018) Since a very long time, Viet Nam has tight bounds with both the U.S and China They are one of the biggest business partners of Viet Nam in commercial transactions By 2011, trade volume between Viet Nam and China had been $25 billion USD (Xinhua, 2011) China is predicted to be Viet Nam’s leading trading partner, outstripping the United States by 2030 In 2017, total exports from Viet Nam to the U.S was $41,549,715,000 USD, Vietnam ranked 12th on the ranking of countries supplying the United States, accounting for 2.0% of imports into the United States Therefore, being in the same situation of the world, Viet Nam is also suffering from the U.S – China trade dispute Whether exports from Vietnam have changed, positive or negative, when trade tensions between China and the U.S have not signaled to stop? This scheme focuses on analyzing the impact that Vietnam is facing, specifically on exports to the United States Before the trade tensions between the United States and China, exports from Vietnam to the U.S have made great strides, but still faced many barriers that the United States introduced, particularly in the case of catfish So in the context of trade tensions, how the positive trends and limitations of Vietnam's exports to the U.S develop? To evaluate Viet Nam's export performance to the US, only tariff policies between the U.S and China are considered, which means impact on non-tariff policies like economic or political are temporarily ignored The first direct tariff policy subjected to Chinese good was in the first quarter of 2018 Therefore, the given milestones are before and after 2018 By comparing Viet Nam’s export pattern to the U.S between periods, which are before and after 2018, the scheme provides datas and comments of author to the reality, difficulties and challenges of exports from Viet Nam to the U.S The chapters are organized as following mentions Firstly, the scheme will review the U.S – China trade tension from 2017 Looking further at the relationship between Vietnam and the United States, the scheme will provide some evidence as a result of previous studies Export characteristics between the two countries before and after the trade war; anh whether the changes in export pattern from Vietnam to the US are due to the impact of the US-China trade war or not are presented Finally, comments are made to assess opportunities as well as challenges arised from such situation CHAPTER CONTEXT OF THE U.S – CHINA TRADE DISPUTE 2.1 Main reasons The main reasons why the U.S sparked the dispute are: (a) such large trade surplus from China threatened employment for Americans; (b) the preoccupation that China imposed unreasonable policies on the U.S firms to reveal their technological know-how, which violated the protection of intellectual property rights; (c) the concern that the U.S national security and global position were impaired by China 2.1.1 The U.S trade deficit with China China and the U.S have enlarged their trade relations over the past decades Besides that, onesided balance of this trade has been witnessed and concerned by Americans The widely indicated reason for the imbalance is the undervaluation of the Renmibi (RMB)1, which has been fixed against the US dollar, giving the undeserved benefit for Chinese producers (Nicholaas Groenewold, Lei He, 2007) In 2014, business and federal offices in the U.S accused China of undervaluing the RMB and controlling markets to encourage exports Actions to regenerate the U.S.’s annual increasing trade deficic with China were demanded by many U.S politicians, the deficit value was at $250 billion (David D.Hale, Lyric Hughes Hale, 2014) The People’s Bank of China (PboC) claimed to belittle the RMB by closely 4% in August 2015, which was known as the first time in nearly decades of soaring China has risen to be the world’s second biggest economy and its currency, known as the Yuan (CNY – Chinese Yuan Renminbi), has been gradually advanced in price for the past decade The Yuan is not exactly verified by the market law of supply and demand but directed by the Chinese government Paying no attention to such everyday market adjustment, a reference ratio is set every morning (Graceffo, 2015) However, on Tuesday, August 11th 2015, the government of China suddenly claimed to depreciate the Yuan to 2% by the end of the day, which was the most significant devaluation of RMB since China applied the up-to-date exchange rate approach in 2014 Following the previous day, the depreciation persisted for the next days, which were August 12th and August 13 th, and leaded to 4.4% drop in total for days (Neil Gough, Keith Bradsher, 2015) The Chinese government permitted their national currency to fluctuate around the fixing percentage with the amplitude of Renmibi, abbreviated as RMB and coded as CNY, is the official currency of People’s Republic of China 2% (2015) The RMB is tightly fixed to the US Dollar since Chinese adjust the exchange ratio based on the US Dollar The Yuan defintely rises when the US Dollar goes up against other money (Wei, 2015) The PboC has gradually let the RMB to fluctuate more for the past years (2015) The government’s statement to allow more market influences on the Yuan value was made after the August revaluations, which would let the Yuan to fluctuate more briskly (Wei, 2015) Speculations on the PboC decision in August and long-term influence were various One could be reported was that the RMB had been overestimated for periods and urged to be adjusted reasonably, which was not to blame the government (Inman, Phillip, Martin Farrer, Fergus Ryan, 2015) Another argument for the situation was either evidence of the economy’s uncertainty or incapacity of the leaders to manage it, others assessed the move as a spectacular factor that the government was able to shift the whole econnomy to be market determined (Smith, 2015) Pattern of a lumping economy was also another theory for such currency devaluation by the Chinese government Consumption as well as exports of China seemed to slowdown for the past periods (Mullaney, 2015) In July 2015, exports dropped by 8% and plant production fell as 6.6% short as expected intension (2015) Together with a downturn in the general economy, Chinese stocks have decreased fundamentally throughout the most recent a while, with the Shanghai record dropping 32% of its worth (Inman, Phillip, Martin Farrer, Fergus Ryan, 2015) These numbers urged the government to take actions in order to steady the economy and a currency adjustment was one such action Products priced in US Dollar were made more expensive under the impact of the Yuan devaluation, which could lead to demand reduction of US commodities Analysts were afraid that the RMB adjustment might be motivations for deflation in other economies The term “currency war” were reported to describe the situation when other countries adjusted their own currency to avoid as well as fight back the Yuan devaluation In the meantime, other producers might decrease their prices for international sale, which easily made Chinese to devaluate the Yuan even lower and caused deflation The US Dollar has recently increased against the other currencies The decrease in RMB would onward intensify the situation (Makinen, Julie, Samantha Masunaga, 2015) Therefore, arguments are enough to claim that the Yuan adjustment affects strongly on the U.S (Hu, 2015) Annual U.S Trade Deficit With China 600 440.4 425.6 468.4 483.2 462.5 505.6 539.5 400 200 110.5 121.7 123.7 115.8 129.9 115.5 120.3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -200 -400 -315.1 -318.7 -600 -344.7 -367.4 -347 -375.7 -419.2 All figures are in billions of US$ Export Import Balance Chart Annual U.S trade deficit with China2 As Chinese goods imported from the US remained unchanged over the years, the data on exports from China increased steadily year by year, leading to a more serious trade imbalance The data collected for 2018 - the year that trade measures took effect, even reached the highest figure since 2012 2.1.2 Intellectual properties rights violation In mid-August 2017, Trump asked U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to investigate China's ability to investigate China's laws, policies, and practices that could harm intellectual property rights or public development of American technology Previous presidential administrations often fulfilled China's demands for technology transfer in exchange for access to markets, which raised criticism and requestion for a more aggressive response from Washington On November 20th 2018, the United States issued a statement accusing China of continuing infringement on intellectual property and technology even when the world's two largest economies were in a tariff war The new allegations were made in a 53-page detailed report published by U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer just 10 days before President Donald Trump is scheduled Data from United States Census Bureau to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines G20 Summit in Buenos Aires November 30th - December 1st The U.S has presented its criticism on piracy and counterfeiting activities in China over a long time The USTR3 has listed China on its Priority Watch List for not issuing an enough appropriate IPRs preservation (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008) Being inefficient to solve the criticism, the U.S government requested WTO to investigate China in April 2007 with the documents of DS362 - China – Measures Affecting the Protection and Enforcement of Intellectual Property Rights WTO DS3624 - China – Measures Affecting the Protection and Enforcement of Intellectual Property Rights – by The U.S (2009) First claim: Copy right law As claimed by the U.S., Article in China’s Coyright Law disclaimed preservation to projects that had been prohibited for communication to public, which was against Article 9.1 – TRIPS5 Second claim: Customs measures China’s Customs Laws allowed customs department to dispose optionally IPviolating commodities extracted at the border and not to depredate them, which was not relevant to Article 46 and 59 of TRIPS Third claim: Criminal thresholds Commodious thresholds of Chinese violators to operate their business were reported to infringe Article 61 of TRIPS In response to the United States, China has justified fiercely on its position not to violate the TRIPS Agreement In January 2009, defects in IPRs protection were found to be inconsistent with TRIPS by the WTO commitee According to the WTO council, China's legal to not protect copyright for works that not meet TRIPS Agreement is a violation Furthermore, it is unacceptable that USTR – the United States Trade Representative Panel Report, China-Measures Affecting the Protection and Enforcement of Intellectual Property Rights, WT/DS362/R (Jan 26, 2009), available at http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/362r_e.pdf The Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) is an international legal agreement between all the member nations of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Since 2004, Vietnam has risen from being the 62nd largest source for furniture and bedding imports for the United States to being the th largest source — surpassing past leaders such as Italy, Malaysia, and Taiwan Furniture and bedding accounted for 10% of total U.S imports from Vietnam in 2017 3.1.3 Notices for Vietnamese exporters before 2018 Criticism by the U.S on Viet Nam’s IPR protection remains Viet Nam is also listed in the U.S Trade Representative’s 2017 Special 301 Report The presence of Viet Nam in the list was explained by the unsolved problem of cyber piracy and counterfeit goods sales Vietnamese commodities face anti-dumping policies imposed by the US government with specific groups of goods, notably the case of catfish This creates many disadvantages for Vietnamese goods in the US market, when the price is too high compared to the market price Since 2003, the U.S has subjected anti-dumping measures on Vietnamese catfish Before such measures, catfish from Viet Nam was common in Americans for its quality, favor and moderate price, which resulted in the quantity increase of Vietnamese frozen catfish fillets imported to the United States, from 54.5 tons (1997) to 7,765 tons (2001) The pattern peaked in 2013, at the number of 101,726 tons Nonetheless, catfish is also important to Southern Americans i.e Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama The CFA11 was concious of the situation of rising competition from Vietnamese catfish, which was reported as unfair and menacing to their industry Actions were made and the CFA urged the government to cut down on catfish imported from Viet Nam Initially, a projected advertisement was spread to slander Vietnamese catfish hygienic background Moreover, the CFA claimed that Vietnamese words used to identify catfish were not appropriate and additionally added that catfish can only be raised in the regions of Southern States of the U.S 12 The U.S Department of Commerce responded to the dumping complaints of the CFA and imposed anti-dumping tariffs from 37 – 64% on Vietnamese catfish in 2003 Such anti-dumping tariff on Vietnamese catfish remains effective to date through 13 reviews by Administrations (Phu) In response to the U.S regulations on Vietnamese catfish, Viet Nam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs presented dissatisfaction and commented that the measures were unessential and harmful to 11 12 CFA - the Association of catfish Farmers of America Section 755 and 10806 of the U.S 2002 Farm Bill 15 national exports and income of Vietnamese farmers Such unfair policy was also stated to violate the WTO sanitary and phytosanitary agreements (SPS) A complaint was filed to WTO by Viet Nam, saying that the U.S regulations on Vietnamese catfish infringed the WTO – SPS agreement The document pointed out that Americans executed protection measures without any scientific fundamentations (Asian Affairs Specialists, 2018) It can be said that while the Vietnamese government is responding to the US anti-dumping policy, the time and money invested in lawsuits is not small And the fact that U.S policy is still valid, the losses that Vietnamese exporters have been suffering are enormous 3.2 Merchandise exports after 2018 3.2.1 Why the U.S – China trade dispute relates to Viet Nam? The impact on tariffs measures reduces the volume of exports from China to the United States Under the effects of US tariff measures applied directly to Chinese goods exported to the US, the trade relationship between the two countries is witnessing many changes in a negative, specific direction especially in commodity trading The U.S imports value from China before and after the trade dispute initiation Millions of US Dollars 140,000 135,000 136,986 136,135 133,349 130,000 125,000 135,604 131,706 125,545 126,528 120,000 120,616 115,000 117,415 117,602 110,000 105,000 2017 (I) 2017 (II) 2017 (III) 2017 (IV) 2018 (I) 2018 (II) 2018 (III) 2018 (IV) 2019 (I) 2019 (II) The U.S imports value from China Chart The U.S imports value from China before and after the trade dispute initiation 13 13 Data from the U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis 16 Taking the point since the US announced the first round of taxation under the framework of Section 301 Investigation in early 2018, the volume of Chinese goods exported to the US immediately fluctuated Between the second and third quarters of 2018, trading volume plummeted from $136,135 millions USD to only $131,706 millions USD From 2018 to 2019, the downtrend is even stronger as the value in the first quarter of 2019 is approximately the same as the value in the first quarter of 2014 According to a 2018 study, by combining HS-8 digit US import data for 2017 from the US Census Bureau of Statistics, HS-6 digit product-level price elasticity of US imports (estimated by Kee et al 2008) and the published list of Chinese products subject to the three tranches of US tariffs, Massimiliano Calì predicted the downtrend in commodity groups, namely: − Electronic Machinery and Equipment; − Articles of Base Metal; − Machinery, Boilers and Mechanical − Optical and Precision instruments; − Paper and Articles thereof; appliances; − Furniture; − Organic Chemicals; − Vehicles other than Railway; − Glass and Glassware; − Articles of Iron of Steel; − Tools of Metal; − Plastics and Articles; − Fish and Crustaceans; − Articles of Leather; − Others − Wood and Articles; Parts of the listed products are also items that Vietnam provides to the United States The upside of the decrease in U.S imports from China is the possible rerouting of Americans to non-Chinese suppliers, of which East Asia nations can be potential candidates since resemblances in exports structure to the U.S are presented (Calì, 2018) With article of (Olivier Cadot, Leonardo Iacovone, Denisse Pierola, Ferdinand Rauch, 2011), which provided evidence to such intuition – nations would be more probable to replace each other to supply one market if their export amount to that market is significant enough, Massimiliano Calì in 2018 evaluated the U.S looking for other East Asian countries to replace China to supply the country He identified products at the HS-8 digit level, which are subjected to be taxed at higher tariffs in the U.S market, happen to be also exported to the U.S by other East Asian countries for a value of at least $10 million USD in 2017 The reason for a threshold of $10 million USD was 17 given that supplying under this amount makes a country a marginal supplier to the United States, which means less opportunities for such nations to be a replacement Results from this study show that Vietnam has the highest potential to replace Chinese exports to the U.S in the group of 10 countries in East Asia (Vietnam, the Philippines, Cambodia, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, Indonesia and Myanmar) The estimated decrease in the U.S imports from China in products that Viet Nam also supplies for at least 10 millions is about 10.9% of Viet Nam’s GDP Products that are expected to have more opportunites are those both estimated China exports drop and existing Viet Nam exports are large such as shrimp and prawns, furniture, travel bags, parts of seats, electrical machinery,… 3.2.2 Changes in merchandise exports structure When the tariff measures directly applied to Chinese goods actually take effect, the prices of Chinese goods in the US market become more expensive and gradually the volume of trade in goods between China and the US will decrease With research from 2018, Vietnam plays a role as a new destination for US importers With real trade data, exports from Vietnam to the US have been really increasing and stronger fluctuations are witnessed in the commodity group that is expected to reduce imports from China VIET NAM EXPORT STRUCTURE TO THE U.S IN 2018 AND 2019 (YEAR -TO-DATE VALUE) Rest 10,685,492,965 12,581,515,128 Non-knitted and NonCrocheted Clothing (62) 4,469,611,150 Furniture (94) 4,939,755,182 3,873,893,158 5,289,701,046 3,631,858,010 5,823,173,409 4,649,571,614 Foowear (64) Knitted or Crocheted Clothing (61) Electrical Machinery (85) 5,306,059,816 15,914,636,947 8,204,240,333 YTD 2018 ( JAN - SEP ) YTD 2019 ( JAN - SEP ) Chart Viet Nam export structure to the U.S in 2018 and 2019 (year-to-date value) in US Dollar14 Considering the same period from January to September of 2018 and 2019 (statistics for October and November 2019 are not currently available), Electrical Machinery increased export value significantly with nearly 94%, this is also a Chinese product that is said to be most affected by the US tariff Similarly, Furniture also has the same trend, not only in the trade relationship between China and the U.S but also between Vietnam and the U.S., the export value increased from over $3 billion USD to nearly $5 billion USD for the same period Not stopping at products with a large export share in terms of value, this scheme continues to look more closely at items with large growth Merchant HS YTD 2018 Code (Jan – Sep) (Jan – Sep) 57 48,477 17,439,845 35,976% 31 56,700 1,063,776 1,876% Carpets, Other Textile Floor Coverings Fertilizers 14 YTD 2019 Growth Data from the U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis Silk 50 863 3,233 375% Chemical Products N.E.C 38 6,483,641 19,929,738 307% 05 5,626,217 16,725,756 297% 41 408,677 1,121,261 274% 81 3,493,805 9,364,840 268% 35 909,828 2,403,988 264% 26 11,223 28,321 252% 56 8,582,642 20,394,540 238% 02 2,175,755 4,785,915 220% Animal Originated Products; Not Elsewhere Specified Or Included Raw Hides And Skins (Other Than Furskins) And Leather Metals; N.E.C., Cermets And Articles Thereof Albuminoidal Substances; Modified Starches; Glues; Enzymes Ores, Slag And Ash Wadding, Felt And Nonwovens, Special Yarns; Twine, Cordage, Ropes And Cables And Articles Thereof Meat And Edible Meat Offal Electrical Machinery And Equipment And Parts Thereof; Sound Recorders And Reproducers; Television 85 8,204,240,333 15,914,636,947 194% Image And Sound Recorders And Reproducers, Parts And Accessories Of Such Articles Complete Industrial Plant 98 68,858,053 129,585,910 188% Fabrics; Knitted Or Crocheted 60 3,182,772 5,855,937 184% Stone, Plaster, Cement, Asbestos, Mica Or Similar 68 87,358,795 157,782,910 181% 39 316,968,236 559,978,396 177% 06 916,505 1,580,068 172% 48 119,056,600 199,590,454 168% 01 849,831 1,398,039 165% 44 197,155,838 312,685,835 159% 90 370,767,601 586,934,613 158% 73 353,240,495 541,584,180 153% 95 488,222,307 737,997,114 151% Materials; Articles Thereof Plastics And Articles Thereof Trees And Other Plants, Live; Bulbs, Roots And The Like; Cut Flowers And Ornamental Foliage Paper And Paperboard; Articles Of Paper Pulp, Of Paper Or Paperboard Live Animals Wood And Articles Of Wood; Wood Charcoal Optical, Photographic, Cinematographic, Measuring, Checking, Medical Or Surgical Instruments And Apparatus; Parts And Accessories Iron Or Steel Articles Toys, Games And Sports Requisites; Parts And Accessories Thereof Table Growth ranking of merchandise exported from Viet Nam to the U.S in Thousand US Dollars15 15 Data from USITC, growth is calculated and sorted by author Some notable details can be named as: − Electrical Machinery - 85 is not only highly exportable but also highly valued for growth; − Some related products with large value groups also appear in the ranking of growth rates such as Carpets, Other Textile Floor Coverings - 57 (related to Furniture) leads the growth with numbers astonishing 35,976%, Knitted Or Crocheted Fabrics - 60 (related to Knitted Or Crocheted Clothing) with a growth of 184%, ; − Iron Or Steel Articles - 73 is a remarkable item in this ranking Before applying direct tax rounds on Chinese goods, the United States also imposed high taxes on this type of goods for all US supplier countries Although not specified by name, China is considered the US target in this move Vietnam, of course, is an American supplier of this product and certainly faces many difficulties when subject to high taxes However, this is still a product with high export growth in Vietnam's export structure to the US 3.2.3 Issues arised under the impact of the trade dispute It is obvious that Vietnam is enjoying a boom in the export of goods, especially exports to the US, with actual indicators showing a positive trend However, in the long run, Vietnamese exporters face many of the challenges brought by the U.S – China trade dispute In the report How will Vietnam Cope with the Impact of the US-China Trade War? in 2018, the authors discussed the negative effects from the trade war between the two powers to Vietnam These effects can be seen as challenges for Vietnamese exporters Chinese routed their goods to Viet Nam before exporting to the U.S., which could lead to high tariff taxed on Viet Nam’s exporting goods to the U.S Chinese facturers obviously not want to suffer such high tariff from the U.S Utilizing situation that Viet Nam is being favored by Americans, Chinese-made commodities are rerouted to Viet Nam and labelled as “made-in-Vietnam” to deliver to the U.S without being taxed as subjected In a press conference to announce the socio-economic statistics of the General Statistics Office on September 28th, 2018, Mr Nguyen Bich Lam, General Director of the Statistics Department, emphasized the risks of the US assessing Vietnam as trade fraud, because a lot of Chinese goods enter Vietnam and hide under Vietnamese brands to export to the U.S For example, cheap Chinese steel is being labelled “made-in-Vietnam” and exported to the U.S., which disturbs Mr Do Duy Thai – Chairman of Viet Steel Corporation (Anh, 2018) The same situation is repeated in group Leather, Footwear and Handbag when Chinese firms rushly establish joint-ventures and cooperations with Vietnamese firms to bring their finished goods to Viet Nam to have a Vietnamese nametag (Phong, 2018) Further discussing this issue, if the U.S government detects these fraud cases, Viet Nam will be hard to avoid the dilemma situation and is supposed to abide by China to avoid tariff tranches have been issued Since then, and in fact, the US will be very wary of Vietnamese goods This will create many barriers for Vietnamese goods to be cleared of goods at US customs clearance stations, and furthermore, Vietnamese goods may be the new target of protection measures As stated in Section 301, the United States has always been vigilant about countries that maintain a trade surplus with the U.S President Trump stated those countries were taking advantage of the U.S at the expense of American workers, which is considered to be one of the reasons the U.S initiated the trade dispute with China Trade deficit between Vietnam and the U.S has been increasing and reached $21.6 billions USD in the first months of 2019, compared to $15.1 billions USD over the same period last year (Loc, 2019) In an interview with Fox Business in June 2019, President Trump went after Vietnam, alleging that the country has taken advantage of the U.S – China trade war to benefit itself Mr Trump appeared to be referring to the fact that some U.S companies had decided to move their operations from China to Vietnam as a result of the trade war, rather than back to the US as he had hoped (Nguyen, 2019) And this problem became a reality on July 3rd 2019, the U.S Commerce Department stated to impose import duties of more than 400 percent on steel imports from Vietnam, due to certain products produced in South Korea and Taiwan are sent to Vietnam for processing, before being exported to the US as products of corrosion-resistant steel and rolled steel cold (2019) Real actions are being taken and careful reactions as well as efforts to reduce tension should be considered Environmental problems are raising as Chinese firms relocate their plants in Viet Nam The transfer of Chinese plants to Viet Nam raises risks to damage Viet Nam environment, which was expressed by the Director of Viet Nam GSO, stating that the procedures of relocating outmoded and pollution-producing technologies to Viet Nam are accelerated by Chinese firms, which makes Viet Nam a “pollution haven” Outrageous competition from American and Chinese merchandises and agricultural products makes high pressures on Viet Nam exports and local market The US has imposed heavy taxes on Chinese goods, and China has also been tit for tat with similar tax policies This means that not only Chinese goods, but American goods themselves will still be heavily affected Navigating into new markets will be inevitable and Vietnam, as analyzed above, is an ideal destination for these merchandises A large amount of imported goods into Vietnam will put pressure on the domestic market Domestic manufacturers will have to pay more attention to the competitiveness of goods, not only in terms of quality but also in price, because according to an indispensable rule of the market: the more suppliers, the higher price Not only that, in Chinese and American markets, Vietnamese goods also face enormous competition from local goods, when the tension from the trade war can lead to exports reduction and reverse investment in the domestic market, to make up for the deficit due to rival’s withdrawal CHAPTER CONCLUSION The U.S – China trade tensions have officially become a direct confrontation of the two powerful nations for nearly two years so far A series of changes have been taking place in diplomatic and economic relations not only between the two countries but also between other countries in their relationship with the U.S and China Vietnam - a neighboring country with China, also has some dependence on the United States, when the value of goods exported to the US reached $49.2 billion USD in 2018, which made Vietnam the 12 th largest supplier of goods imports in 2018, certainly suffers from the trade dispute Specialists have called Vietnam a winner in the trade dispute between the U.S and China (Nguyen, 2019), which is obvious since positive signals have been shown in Vietnam’s economy reports, specifically in significant growth in goods exports to the U.S The key products in Vietnam's export structure to the US such as electrical machinery, furniture, knitted apparel, etc are also the products that China is subjected to direct tax tranches from the U.S government on the basis of Section 301 Research from (Olivier Cadot, Leonardo Iacovone, Denisse Pierola, Ferdinand Rauch, 2011) combined with the argument of (Calì, 2018) has shown that, the similarity in the export basket of goods to the same destination easily leads to the mutual replacement of the two countries Because of that reason, this scheme confirms part of the reasons for the sudden increase in exports from Vietnam to the United States, particularly in the above-mentioned items, is precisely due to the direction of the Americans to another supplier instead of China and Vietnam is a potential candidate So, what Vietnam's exports gain and lose in that context? A series of businesses invitations and approaches not only from the U.S but also from China will create a lucrative market for Vietnamese businesses With more opportunities to export goods, Viet Nam will improve its position in the market, and increasingly affirm the quality and image of goods made in Viet Nam Not stopping there, exporters will learn and gain a lot of lessons and experiences when participating in international business environment, approaching new trends as well as learning how to take advantage of international regulations to no longer play a passive role in international trade transactions Along with the opportunities, a series of challenges will surely be a difficult problem not only for businesses but also for the Vietnamese government Taking advantage of American navigations, Chinese enterprises have done tricks to sell goods to the US but still avoided trade protection measures, by routing goods to Vietnam and re- exporting to the US under the "made-in-Vietnam" brand The US government has sniffed and investigated in series and immediately had a defensive response to goods imported from Vietnam Tariff barriers have been set up, document verification procedures for import customs clearance have been more stringent, Vietnamese enterprises now have to be more careful and also spend more time and money to bring their goods into the United States Not stopping there, Vietnamese goods exported to the US are also subjected to competition from domestic goods when the U.S is also affected by trade protection measures from China Restricted goods that are projected to export will return to the domestic market and increase competition in the U.S market The Vietnamese government needs to be more careful in actions when it is almost a third party directly affected by the U.S – China trade war Policies to restrict excessive relocation of Chinese enterprises to Vietnam as well as tighten the procedure of providing certification of origin need to be implemented In the face of the trade protectionism imposed by the United States on suspicion of motives from Chinese enterprises, the government needs to be serious and cautious in negotiations with the U.S government to minimize damage to Vietnam's exports LIMITATIONS This scheme has studied the trend of Vietnamese goods exported to the US in the context of the U.S – China trade war However, the author has considered neither the impact from China nor responses from Viet Nam government before such changes Further analysis on specific industries should be considered to have a more comprehensive view 10 REFERENCES Anh Ngan Vietnamese steel firms face wrath of Trump's protectionism drive [Online] // VnExpress - 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