The future of work 10 facts about jobs in the future Lee Rainie - @lrainie Director Internet and Technology Research at PRC IMF- World Bank Youth Dialogue on the future of work Oct 10, 2017 1) The nature of jobs is changing as the knowledge economy rises October 10, 2017 http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/ 1) The nature of jobs is changing as the knowledge economy rises % change in employment, 1980-2015 All occupations 50% Occupations requiring higher levels of Social skills 83 Analytical skills Physical skills October 10, 2017 77 18 http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/ 2) Since 1990, employment growth most rapid in education and health services % change in industry employment, 1990-2015 105 Educational services Health care and social assistance Professional and business services 99 81 63 Leisure and hospitality Transportation and warehousing Other services 32 All 30 Financial activities October 10, 2017 39 23 http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/ warehousing Other services 32 % change in industry employment, 1990-2015 All 30 Financial activities 23 Construction 22 Government 20 Retail trade 19 12 Wholesale trade Mining and logging Information Utilities Manufacturing October 10, 2017 -25 -30 http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/ 3) Automation, robots, artificial intelligence are taking over workers’ traditional tasks 47% 50% Oxford researchers calculate this is the percentage of American employment that is at risk because of the expected impacts of computerization in the foreseeable future McKinsey analysts estimate this is the share of activities workers are paid to now that could be automated using currently available technologies – accounting for $15 trillion in wages http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/digital-disruption/harnessing-automation-for-a-future-that-works October 10, 2017 3) Automation, robots, artificial intelligence are taking over workers’ traditional tasks 45 years The timeframe estimated by artificial intelligence experts when “high level machine intelligence” – unaided machines that can accomplish any given task better and more cheaply than humans – will be developed - 2024: outperform language translators - 2027: drive a truck - 2031 : work in retail - 2049: write best selling book - 2053: work as a surgeon https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf October 10, 2017 4) People think many professions at risk – but not their own jobs % of U.S adults who think it is _ likely that the following jobs will be replaced by robots or computers in their lifetimes October 10, 2017 http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/ 5) People express more worry than optimism about future automation October 10, 2017 http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/ 6) Workers express more positive than negative views on overall impact of technology on their careers % of U.S workers who say the following October 10, 2017 http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/ 7) Workers with higher levels of education more likely to say tech has increased opportunities, made jobs more interesting College grad+ Some college HS grad or less 64 54 53 51 38 32 Made their work more interesting October 10, 2017 Increased their opportunities for advancement http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/ 8) People think knowledge of computers, social dexterity, communications skills and access to training are key to success Very NET 85% important 40 Extremely important Having a detailed understanding of how to use computer technology Being able to work with people from many different backgrounds Somewhat important 45 12 49 12 85% 35 85% Training in writing and communicating 37 48 82% Access to training to keep skills up to date 33 49 69% 22 Training in math and science 47 26 64% Knowing a computer or programming language Mastering social media 13 23 41 37% 10 27 40 36% Knowing a foreign language 10 25 43 26 16 9) Americans think individuals and public schools should have the most responsibility to make sure workers have the right skills % saying these groups should have _ responsibility in making sure that the American workforce has the right skills and education to be successful in today's economy A lot of Some Public K-12 education system 28 52 35 39 40 http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/ 35 34 35 49 Employers October 10, 2017 22 60 Colleges and universities Federal government None 72 Individuals themselves State governments Only a little 15 18 11 10) Experts see major changes in education and jobs training programs In the next 10 years, you think we will see the emergence of new educational and training programs that can successfully train large numbers of workers in the skills they will need to perform the jobs of the future? 70% “yes” 30% “no http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/05/03/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training/ Theme 1) The training ecosystem will evolve, with a mix of innovation in all education formats Theme 2) Learners must cultivate 21st-century skills, capabilities and attributes: Tough-to-teach intangibles such as emotional intelligence, curiosity, creativity, adaptability, resilience and critical thinking will be most highly valued Theme 3) New credentialing systems will arise as selfdirected learning expands http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/05/03/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training/ Thank you! Email: lrainie@pewresearch.org Twitter: @lrainie @pewinternet @pewresearch October 10, 2017 ... train large numbers of workers in the skills they will need to perform the jobs of the future? 70% “yes” 30% “no http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/05/03 /the- future- of -jobs- and -jobs- training/ Theme... a little 15 18 11 10) Experts see major changes in education and jobs training programs In the next 10 years, you think we will see the emergence of new educational and training programs that...1) The nature of jobs is changing as the knowledge economy rises October 10, 2017 http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016 /10/ 06 /the- state-of-american -jobs/ 1) The nature of jobs is changing as the