More praise for The March of Folly “In The March of Folly, Barbara Tuchman, as usual, breaks all the rules She sails forth with bold moral purpose at a time when most other popular historians hug the shores of biography and most academic historians are content to paddle quietly in small ponds.… Tuchman’s ‘special talent,’ as her fellow journalist and historian Frances Fitzgerald has written, ‘lies in her ability to wade through mountains of documentation and come out with Ariadne’s thread—the clean story line that permits her readers to follow her through a maze of events into the life of a period.’ … There is more to Tuchman’s appeal than superb storytelling She also glories in unmasking deceit, cant, and pomposity.” —Newsweek “The specter of this ultimate folly [nuclear war] hangs over Barbara Tuchman’s brilliant and troubling book, The March of Folly, like a ghost from the future She addresses it not a word She doesn’t have to No one could read her accounts of the powerful of this world … without thinking of the solemn warnings since 1945 that we are building weapons of our own destruction For Tuchman this is the essence of folly: disaster plainly foreseen by many in good time, ready and feasible alternatives, willfully ignored by men obsessed with power.” —Chicago Tribune “The March of Folly is, at one level, a glittering narrative of three “major events.… At another, it is a moral essay on the crimes and follies of governments and the misfortunes the governed suffered in consequence.” —The New York Times Book Review “The specter of this ultimate folly [nuclear war] hangs over Barbara Tuchman’s brilliant and troubling book, The March of Folly, like a ghost from the future She addresses to it not a word She doesn’t have to No one could read her accounts of the powerful of this world—corrupt Renaissance popes, the arrogant ministers of King George III of Britain who lost America, the dent Cold War mandarins of Washington … without thinking of the solemn warnings since 1945 that we are building the weapons of our own destruction For Tuchman this is the essence of folly: disaster plainly foreseen by many in good time, ready and feasible alternatives, willfully ignored by men obsessed with power.” Chicago Tribune “The March of Folly is, at one level, a glittering narrative of three major events.… At another, it is a moral essay on the crimes and follies of governments and the misfortunes the governed suffer in consequence.” The New York Times Book Review “Only one living writer of history has gained and held anything like such a general readership Barbara Tuchman’s new book … shows us why.… She now sweeps us through thirty centuries, from the fall of Troy to the war in Vietnam, paying close attention along the way to how the Renaissance popes provoked the Reformation and England lost the American colonies—the four events she’s found to propel her idea that the disasters of history are the result of the folly of rulers But even these thumping good stories are not quite enough for her We are also asked to think of Montezuma, of the Visigoths in Spain, of Louis XIV and the Huguenots, of the Kaiser’s use of submarine warfare, of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor: folly upon absorbing folly.” Vogue “Like her past books, her new one is witty, intelligent and elegant Tuchman without question is the most skilled popular historian in practice.” The New Milford Times By Barbara W Tuchman BIBLE AND SWORD (1956) THE ZIMMERMANN TELEGRAM (1958) THE GUNS OF AUGUST (1962) THE PROUD TOWER (1966) STIL WELL AND THE AMERICAN EXPERIENCE IN CHINA (1971) NOTES FROM CHINA (1972) A DISTANT MIRROR (1978) PRACTICING HISTORY (1981) THE MARCH OF FOLLY (1984) THE FIRST SALUTE (1988) A Ballantine Book Published by The Random House Publishing Group Copyright © 1984 by Barbara W Tuchman All rights reserved Published in the United States by Ballantine Books, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., New York, and simultaneously in Canada by Random House of Canada Limited, Toronto Grateful acknowledgment is made to The University of Chicago Press for permission to reprint an excerpt from The Iliad, translated by Richmond Lattimore Copyright 1951 by the University of Chicago All rights reserved Used by permission Ballantine and colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc www.ballantinebooks.com Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 84-45672 eISBN: 978-0-307-79856-5 This edition by arrangement with Alfred A Knopf, Inc., New York v3.1 “And I can see no reason why anyone should suppose that in the future the same motifs already heard will not be sounding still … put to use by reasonable men to reasonable ends, or by madmen to nonsense and disaster.” JOSEPH CAMPBELL Foreword to The Masks of God: Primitive Mythology, 1969 Contents Cover Other Books by This Author Title Page Copyright Epigraph Illustrations Acknowledgments One Two PURSUIT OF POLICY CONTRARY TO SELF-INTEREST PROTOTYPE: THE TROJANS TAKE THE WOODEN HORSE WITHIN THEIR WALLS Three THE RENAISSANCE POPES PROVOKE THE PROTESTANT SECESSION: 1470– 1530 Murder in a Cathedral: Sixtus IV Host to the Infidel: Innocent VIII Depravity: Alexander VI The Warrior: Julius II The Protestant Break: Leo X The Sack of Rome: Clement VII Four THE BRITISH LOSE AMERICA Who’s In, Who’s Out: 1763–65 “Asserting a Right You Know You Cannot Exert”: 1765 Folly Under Full Sail: 1766–72 “Remember Rehoboam!”: 1772–75 “… A Disease, a Delirium”: 1775–83 Five AMERICA BETRAYS HERSELF IN VIETNAM In Embryo: 1945–46 Self-Hypnosis: 1946–54 Creating the Client: 1954–60 “Married to Failure”: 1960–63 Executive War: 1964–68 Exit: 1969–73 Epilogue “A LANTERN ON THE STERN” Reference Notes and Works Consulted About the Author Source references will be found in the notes at the end of the book, located by page number and an identifying phrase from the text Illustrations THE TROJANS TAKE THE WOODEN HORSE WITHIN THEIR WALLS Amphora showing the Wooden Horse, 670 B.C (Mykonos Museum, Deutsches Archäologisches Institut, Athens) Wall painting from Pompeii, c 1st century B.C (Museo Nazionale, Naples; Photo: Fogg Art Museum) Bas-relief depicting an Assyrian siege engine, 884–860 B.C (British Museum) Laocoon, Roman, 50 (Museo Pio-Clementino, Belvedere, Vatican) C.A.D THE RENAISSANCE POPES PROVOKE THE PROTESTANT SECESSION: 1470–1530 Sixtus IV, by Melozzo da Forli (Vatican Museum; Photo: Scala) Innocent VIII, by Antonio del Pollaiuolo (St Peter’s; Photo: Scala) Alexander VI, by Pinturicchio (Vatican; Photo: Scala) The Mass of Bolsena, showing Julius II, by Raphael (Vatican; Photo: Scala) Leo X, by Raphael (Uffizi, Florence; Photo: Scala) Clement VII, by Sebastiano del Piombo (Museo di Capodimonte, Naples; Photo: Scala) The Battle of Pavia, Brussels tapestry (Museo di Capodimonte, Naples; Photo: Scala) The tra c of indulgences, by Hans Holbein the Younger (Metropolitan Museum of Art, Dick Fund 1936) Lutheran satire on papal reform (American Heritage) THE BRITISH LOSE AMERICA The House of Commons during the reign of George III, by Karl Anton Hickel (National Portrait Gallery) William Pitt, 1st Earl of Chatham, by Richard Brompton (National Portrait Gallery) George III, from the studio of Allan Ramsay (National Portrait Gallery) Charles Townshend, British School, painter unknown (Collection of the Duke of Buccleuch and Queensberry, K.T., Drumlanrig Castle, Dumfriesshire; Photo: Tom Scott) Augustus Henry Fitzroy, 3rd Duke of Grafton, by Pompeo Batoni (British Museum) B Johnson, I, 496–505, Univ of Illinois Press, Urbana, 1978 19 DULLES TRIES TO GET KREMLIN PROMISE: Hoopes, 172 20 GENERAL STAFF, “RE-EVALUATION” IN RELATION TO COST: 21 BARRINGTON: 22 ADMIRAL DAVIS, “SHOULD BE AVOIDED”: 23 PENTAGON CHIEFS’ ADVICE, CHINA THE ENEMY: 24 EISENHOWER’S THREE CONDITIONS: 25 “WILL PROBABLY DETERIORATE”: 26 “THE FRENCH BLACKMAILED US”: 27 PP, I, 89 q Barrington, 142–3 Review, 12 Oct 69 “THE FREEDOM WE CHERISH”: PP, I, 89 q Cohen, 174 PP, I, 94; Mandate, 345 June 53, PP, I, 391–2 Acheson interview with Professor Gaddis Smith, NYT Book q Halle, 286–7 28 TRAPNELL REPORT: PP, I, 487–9 29 “A LACK OF ENTHUSIASM”: 30 “POPULATION SUPPORTED THE ENEMY”: 31 U.S PAYING 80 PERCENT: 32 JUSTICE DOUGLAS: 33 MANSFIELD REPORT: 35 NEW LOOK STRATEGY OF CABINET: Feb 54, q Gelb, 52 Eisenhower, Mandate, 372–3 Hammer, 313, n 20a North from Malaya, 10, 208 U.S Congress, Senate FRC, 83rd Congress, 1st Session: see under U.S Congress, Senate 34 DULLES’ FEAR OF MC CARTHY: Hoopes, 160 36 q ibid., 196 Eisenhower, Mandate, 451; Hoopes, chap 13 DULLES, “PHONY PEACE CAMPAIGN”: HUMPHREY COMMENT: Hoopes, 173 37 RADFORD POLICY PAPER FOR GENEVA: 38 DULLES LEFT THE IMPRESSION: Hoopes, 212 Nixon, “if to avoid”: 16 Apr 54, q Eisenhower, EISENHOWER, “OUR MAIN TASK”: Mandate, 168 39 Mandate, 353, n PP, I, 448–51 40 CHINESE SUPPLY 4000 TONS A MONTH: Cooper, 59 41 ELY MISSION AND OPERATION VULTURE: Roberts, in Raskin and Fall, 57–66; PP, I, 97–106 PROPOSED USE OF ATOMIC BOMBS: FRUS, 1952–54, XIII, 1271 FOOTNOTE, PROVOKING CHINESE RESPONSE: Chalmers Roberts in Washington Post, 24 Oct 71, q Gelb, 57 MACARTHUR COMMENT: FRUS, op cit., to Sec of State Apr 54, 1270–2 42 DULLES MEETING WITH CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS: Roberts, op cit.; Hoopes, 210–11 43 PP, I, 100–04; Roberts; Hoopes, 207–08 INVOLVEMENT”: 10 Mar 54, q Gurtov, 78 FRENCH CABINET ASKS INTERVENTION: 44 GAVIN REPORT: 45 EISENHOWER REJECTS UNILATERAL INTERVENTION: 46 SPECIAL COMMITTEE’S REPORT: 47 DULLES ON FALL OF DIEN BIEN PHU: 48 EISENHOWER, “NO Ridgway, Soldier, 276; also Gavin in Senate FRC Hearings in 1966 Mandate, 373; PP, I, 129 Apr 54, PP, I, 472–6 11 May 54, PP, I, 106; also NYT, 24 June 54 q Hoopes from Le Monde, 12 Feb 54 CEASE-FIRE IN THIRTY DAYS: Ambassador Dillon to Sec of State, July 54, PP (HR), Bk IX, 612 CONSCRIPTION: ibid MENDES-FRANCE, “DOES MUCH LESS”: 49 DULLES, “DELIBERATE THREAT”: 50 CHOU EN-LAI’S ADVICE: 11 June 54, q Hoopes, 230 as told by Chou to Harrison Salisbury, Salisbury to author, 17 Feb 83 Creating the Client FRENCH CASUALTIES: Eisenhower, Mandate, 337 St Louis Post-Dispatch, “A WAR TO STAY OUT OF”: May 54, and other editorials, May 7, 9, 10, 12, 14, 19, 22, 1954 FITZPATRICK CARTOON: ibid., wanted, June 54 REISCHAUER, “AN EXTREMELY INEFFECTIVE”: DULLES, “SO UNITED, SO STRONG”: ADMIRAL DAVIS, “NO BETTER PREPARED”: DIEM’S CAREER: JOINT CHIEFS, “ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL”: 178–9; 251–7 q Hoopes, 242 PP, I, 212 Mans eld report to Senate FRC, 15 Oct 54, 83rd Congress, 2nd Session; see also Scheer JUSTICE DOUGLAS INTRODUCES DIEM: Scheer and Hinckle, “The Viet-Nam Lobby,” in Raskin and Fall, 69 AMERICANS “DIFFERENT” FROM THE FRENCH: William Bundy to author, 18 Feb 81 PP, I, 215 10 JOINT CHIEFS, “NO ASSURANCE”: PP, I, 218 11 “CHRIST HAS MOVED SOUTH”: 12 “VIETNAM PROBABLY WOULD HAVE TO BE WRITTEN OFF”: 13 FAURE, “NOT ONLY INCAPABLE BUT MAD”: 14 MANSFIELD REPORT: 15 EISENHOWER LETTER TO DIEM: 16 COLLINS’ REPORT: 17 LANSDALE MISSION: q Cooper, 130 report of the Lansdale Mission, PP, I, 577 PP, I, 241 U.S Congress, Senate FRC, 83rd Congress, 2nd Session PP, I, 253 PP, I, 226 RE-AFFIRMED: PP, I, 573–83 Collins, 408 18 FRENCH “DISPOSED TO EXPLORE”: 19 NYT, “PROVEN INEPT”: PP, I, 221 SAINTENY, “ONLY POSSIBLE MEANS”: ibid., 222 C L Sulzberger, 18 Apr 55 20 DULLES, CHANCES “ONE IN TEN”: Collins, 379 21 EISENHOWER, “LOTS OF DIFFICULTIES”: 22 278 HEATH, “OVER $300 MILLION”: 23 SPELLMAN, “ALAS!”: 24 DIEM DENIAL OF ELECTIONS: 25 “OUTRAGEOUS” METHODS: 26 “OVERWHELMING MAJORITY”: 27 KENNEDY ON HO’S “POPULARITY”: 28 EISENHOWER “REFUSED TO AGREE”: 30 A STUDY BY AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENTISTS: 32 AMERICAN EMBASSY, “SITUATION MAY BE SUMMED UP”: q Cooper, 142 PP, I, 227 NYT, 31 Aug 54 PP, I, 245 Buttinger, II, 890 Leo Cherne in Look, 25 Jan 56; see also Cooper, 132 in Senate, Apr 54, q Scheer, 15 Ridgway, Foreign A airs, 585; see also Eisenhower, Mandate, 372 state dept., “we support”: PP, I, 246 29 PHAM VAN DONG, “WE SHALL ACHIEVE UNITY”: PP, I, 250 one of a series conducted in Vietnam from 1955 to 1962 by Michigan State University under the direction of Professor Wesley Fishel, q Scheer, 53 31 GIAP, “WE EXECUTED”: PP, I, 246 33 34 PP, I, 258 Cooper, 159; text of Manifesto in Raskin and Fall, 116–21 “INCAPABLE OF SAVING THE COUNTRY”: ibid., 483; WASHINGTON’S CONGRATULATIONS: ibid MANIFESTO OF THE EIGHTEEN AND ARRESTS: NLF TEN-POINT PROGRAM: text in Raskin and Fall, 216–21 “Married to Failure” “IT WAS SIMPLY A GIVEN”: James Thomson, NYT Books, Oct 70 KENNEDY, “CORNERSTONE … KEYSTONE”: THURMOND ON MC CONE: GALBRAITH, “THE DISASTROUS AND THE UNPALATABLE”: “THIS IS THE WORST WE HAVE HAD YET”: speech on “America’s Stake in Vietnam” to American Friends of Vietnam, June 1956, q Lewy, 12 MC NAMARA, “WE HAVE THE POWER TO KNOCK”: reportedly said at a Pentagon brie ng, Robert D Heinl, Dictionary of Military and Naval Quotations, Annapolis, 1966, 215 BUNDY, READY TO BE DEAN AT AGE TWELVE: q Halberstam, 52 Halberstam, 153 Galbraith, 477 Schlesinger, 320; PP, II, 6, 27 LANSDALE PROGRAM: PP, II, 440–1 KENNEDY, “WHITE MAN’S WAR”: Schlesinger, 505, 547 10 “WELL, MR SCHOENBRUN”: 11 LIMITED WAR, “ADVANTAGES OF TERMINATING”: 12 KENNEDY READ MAO AND CHE GUEVARA: 13 ROSTOW’S SPEECH AT FORT BRAGG: 14 LANSDALE, “A STRONGER APPEAL”: 15 BURKE, “PERSEVERANCE IN ABSURDITY”: 16 PENTAGON DISCUSSIONS ON “SIZE AND COMPOSITION”: 17 EISENHOWER BRIEFING: 18 7TH FLEET TO SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND OTHER MOVEMENTS: 19 LEMNITZER SUGGESTS NUCLEAR ARMS: 20 JOHNSON, “THE WINSTON CHURCHILL”: 21 Schoenbrun to author q Kaplan, 330 KAUFMAN QUOTED: Schlesinger, 341 Raskin and Fall, 108–16 q Schlesinger, 986 speech in Commons of 19 April 1774, Hansard XVIII Action Memorandum, 11 May 61, PP, II, 642 Gelb and Betts, 29 Ball, 363 Galbraith, 467 Ball, 385 KENNEDY SHOCKED: q Schlesinger, 541 q Gelb and Betts, 70 583 ff READY TO RISK NUCLEAR WAR: ibid KENNEDY TO RESTON: ibid HIS REPORT: text in PP, II, 55–9; see also “WE CANNOT AND WILL NOT”: 22 NITZE, “VALUE TO THE WEST”: 23 THEODORE WHITE, “SITUATION GETS WORSE”: 24 MCGARR’S ESTIMATE: 25 ROSTOW AS DR PANGLOSS: 26 TAYLOR-ROSTOW REPORT: PP, II, 14–15,90–98; Taylor, 227–44 27 “EXTERNAL AGGRESSION”: q Cohen, 184 28 STATE DEPT ANNEXES: 29 RUSK, “A LOSING HORSE”: 30 “REGIME NOT VIABLE”: 31 MCNAMARA-JCS RESPONSE: 32 KENNEDY TO DIEM: 33 ibid., 199 25 July 61, q Sorensen, Thompson and Frizzell, q Schlesinger, 544 Taylor, 220–1 Macpherson, 258 “BIGGEST COLD WARRIOR”: q Halberstam, 161 PP, II, 95–7 PP, II, 105 in camera testimony to Senate FRC, 28 Feb 61, q Cohen, iii PP, II, 108–09 MCNAMARA-RUSK SECOND MEMORANDUM: PP, II, 110–16 ibid., 805–06 DIEM “SEEMED TO WONDER”: Acting Defense Minister Thuan Nguyen Dinh to Ambassador Nolting, ibid., 121 34 CASUALTY FIGURES: PP (NYT), 110 35 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE: NYT, 14 Feb 62 Kennedy, “WE HAVE NOT SENT COMBAT TROOPS”: PP, II, 36 37 808 ME NAMARA, “EVERY QUANTITATIVE MEASUREMENT”: q Schlesinger, 549 Galbraith, 471–3; PP, II, 122–4 LETTERS OF NOVEMBER, 1961 AND Galbraith, 477–9; also PP, II, 670–1 “MARRIED TO FAILURE”: q Schlesinger, 548 GALBRAITH’S REPORT: 38 JES, “WELL-KNOWN COMMITMENT”: 39 “WHAT THE NEWSMEN TOOK TO BE LIES”: 42 HILSMAN REPORT: 43 COGNITIVE DISSONANCE, “SUPPRESS, GLOSS OVER”: MARCH 1962: Lemnitzer for JCS to Sec of Defense, 13 Apr 62, ibid., 671–2 Mecklin, 100 MANNING MEMORANDUM: Salinger, 328; for the press war, see also Manning, ed Stakes, 58–61 40 MANSFIELD, ZEAL WOULD BE THE UNDOING: Macpherson, 45 TOLD THE SENATE: 88th Congress, 1st Session, GPO, Washington, D.C., 1963 41 MANSFIELD-KENNEDY CONVERSATION: O’Donnell PP, II, 690–726 I am indebted to Je rey Race for bringing this concept to my attention The quoted passages are from his article in Armed Forces and Society See also Leon Festinger, A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance, Evanston, 111., 1957 44 KENNEDY HINTS WITHDRAWAL TO MANSFIELD: O’Donnell 45 Forrestal to author “EASY; PUT A GOVERNMENT”: O‘Donnell COLLAPSE”: q Schlesinger, 989 “WE ARE GOING TO STAY”: 17 July 63, PP, II, 824 INSTRUCTS MICHAEL FORRESTAL: 46 “NO, I BELIEVE IT”: 47 RUSK, “STEADY MOVEMENT”: 48 NHUS SUSPECTED OF DEALING WITH ENEMY: 49 “SOME QUITE FANTASTIC ACTION”: 50 CONEIN LIAISON: “WOULD MEAN NBC interview with Chet Huntley, PP, II, 828 q Schlesinger, 986 Ball, 370 State to Lodge, 29 Aug 63, unsigned, PP, II, 738 Ball, 371; for U.S Involvement in Coup, see PP, II, 256–63, Documents, 734–51 lodge, “THIS REPRESSIVE REGIME”: PP, II, 742, para WASHINGTON’S INSTRUCTIONS: State to Lodge, 24 Aug 63, PP, II, 734; NSC to Lodge, Oct 63, ibid., 257, 766 51 LODGE, “WE ARE LAUNCHED”: ibid., 738 “ASSASSINATION” OF NHUS: to State from Lodge, Oct 63, ibid., 767 52 ROBERT KENNEDY, “COMMUNIST TAKE-OVER”: Sept 63, PP, II, 243 Hilsman, 106 53 Manning, ed Stakes, 50–51 CINCPAC OPTIMISM: Cooper, 480 54 Mecklin, 241; Cohen, 190 KATTENBURG PREDICTION: Halberstam, 370 55 BATTLE OF AP BAC: RUFUS PHILLIPS REPORT: DE GAULLE SPEAKS: PP, II, 245 COLONEL VANN: JOHN MECKLIN “IN DESPAIR”: NYT, 30 Aug 63 “AUTHORITATIVE SOURCES”: Halberstam, 203–05 X KATTENBURG CONFERENCE: DOD AND PP, II, ibid., from Washington, “WIDE ANNOYANCE” 56 57 58 : ibid “THEIR” WAR; KENNEDY, “IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS”: Wicker, 186 “YOU TWO DID VISIT”: interview with Walter Cronkite, Sept 1963, q q PP, III, 23, from Hilsman PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT, “BY THE END OF 1965”: text in Raskin and Fall, 128–9 Executive War MADE UP HIS MIND NOT TO “LOSE”: “I AM NOT GOING TO BE THE FIRST PRESIDENT”: Wicker, 205 James Reston in NYT, Oct 67 ALTERNATIVE VERSION: q Wicker, 189, from Jean Lacouture, Vietnam: Between Two Truces, 1966, 170 SECOND BROADCAST PICKED UP IN WASHINGTON: Wicker, ibid VIET-CONG BROADCAST SUGGESTING CEASE-FIRE: GENERAL “BIG” MINH AND SUCCESSORS’ FEELERS OPPOSED BY U.S.: Harper’s, Sept 1965 MCNAMARA, “NEXT TWO OR THREE MONTHS”: NYT Bill Moyers to author EDITORIAL: Joseph Kraft, “Washington Insight,” PP, II, 193 Nov 63 q Cohen, 258 “A BILLION CHINESE”: at a press conference, NYT, 13 Oct 67 HANSON BALDWIN: NYT Magazine, 27 Feb 66 SEN JOSEPH CLARK: at Senate FRC (Fulbright) hearings in 1966 JOHNSON ON “THEIR” WAR: q Wicker, 231–2 RUSK, “WOULD LEAD TO OUR RUIN”: Maddox, “DESTRUCTIVE” ACTION: PP, III, 150–1 NAVAL UNITS: Ball, 379 JCSM em 19 May 64, PP, III 511 10 HONOLULU CONFERENCE: PP, III, 171–7; Ball, 375–9 11 “ADMISSION THAT THE GAME WAS UP”: 12 NUCLEAR OPTION: 13 MCNAMARA, “AT LEAST THIRTY DAYS”: 14 q Gelb, 115 PP, III, 175; Rusk, PP, II, 322; McNamara, PP, III, 238 ibid., 176 FULBRIGHT’S MOTIVES FOR TONKIN RESOLUTION: Wicker, 223; “DESIST FROM AGGRESSIVE POLICIES”: SEN ERVIN: Austin, 78; 15 MC NAMARA’S DENIAL: 16 “WELL, THOSE DUMB STUPID SAILORS”: 17 DE GAULLE PROPOSES SETTLEMENT: 18 U THANT’S PROPOSAL: 19 “AS THOUGH I WERE ON THE TITANIC”: Hoopes, Limits, 25–6 TONKIN DEBATE IN FRC: SEN NELSON: SEN MORSE TIPPED OFF BY PHONE CALL: Austin, 68 ibid q Ball, 379 PP, II, 193; INTERVIEW WITH BALL: Ball, 377–8 Kraslow and Loory, 102; Sevareid in Look, 30 Nov 65 q Kraft, Harper’s, Dec 1967, in Raskin and Fall, 315–22 20 “SHATTER MY PRESIDENCY” AND ALL OTHER REMARKS QUOTED IN THIS PARAGRAPH: 21 CIA, “LIKELY THAT NO OTHER NATION”: 22 WORKING GROUP’S WARNING: 23 BALL’S MEMORANDUM: 24 “RAGGEDY-ASS LITTLE FOURTH-RATE COUNTRY”: 25 BUNDY’S MEMORANDUM: 26 TAYLOR, “DEMOLISHED HOMELAND”: 27 MCNAUGHTON, “WITHOUT UNACCEPTABLE TAINT”: 28 PP, III, 695 TUESDAY LUNCH: PP, III, 178 PP, III, 217 Ball, 380–6, 390–2 q Manning, ed., Stakes, 183 Feb 65, PP, III, 309, 687–9 Taylor, 403 plan of action addressed to McNamara 24 Mar 65, Graff, passim; Evans and Novak, 553–5 29 PRESIDENT WOULD GET UP AT A.M.: 30 MICHIGAN “TEACH-IN” AND 122 CAMPUSES CONNECTED BY TELEPHONE: 31 Kearns, 253, 257 ibid., 80 THE WHITE PAPER: Kearns, 270 Powers, 55, 61 BERKELEY FACULTY STATEMENT: 28 Feb 65, PP, III, 728 32 MCNAMARA, “THE MOST FLAGRANT CASE”: q St Louis Post-Dispatch, Spec Supp., D7 33 COMBAT DISCUSSIONS: 35 TAYLOR EXPLAINS ATTRITION: 36 ON DECLARATION OF WAR: 37 MC NAMARA, “WITHOUT AROUSING THE PUBLIC IRE”: 40 SUICIDE SEEMED TOO CRAZED: 41 AFL-C10 COUNCIL: 42 DEARBORN REFERENDUM: 43 LIPPMANN DENIES “EXTERNAL AGGRESSION”: 44 MOYERS NETWORK: 45 EMBASSY PROPOSES “TERMINATING OUR INVOLVEMENT”: PP, III, chap 3, “Air War in North Vietnam”; chap 4, “American Troops Enter Ground War.” 34 RUSK NOTE TO NORTH VIETNAM EMBASSY IN MOSCOW: Kraslow, 122 Senate FRC hearings, 1966 Summers, 21–9; Nitze, in Thompson and Frizzell, q by Douglas Rosenberg as epigraph for “Arms and the American Way” in Russett, 170 Subsequently quoted in Summers, 18 Mr Rosenberg lacks record of the original source 38 NASSER’S REPLY ON LIMITED WAR: q Roche, Am Enterprise, Debate, 137, from Mohamed Heikal, Cairo Documents, New York, 1973 39 PAUL CONRAD CARTOON: Los Angeles Times, Apr 65 NYT editorial, 11 Nov 65 Hardin, 94 NYT, Nov and 10 Nov 66 Steel, 565 Moyers to author; Anderson, 341 Taylor, q Lake, 297 46 GALBRAITH, “OVERWHELMING ODDS”: Galbraith, 469, n 47 SEN RUSSELL PRIVATELY EXHORTED: William P Bundy to author; 48 IV, 98 A JOURNALIST RECALLS: PROPOSES POLL OF VIETNAMESE OPINION: PP, Herbert Mitgang to author 49 CLIFFORD IN PRIVATE LETTER: 17 May 65, q Gelb, 371, from LBJ papers 50 MC NAUGHTON, “70 PERCENT TO AVOID”: 51 MC NAMARA-WHEELER ON “WINNING”: 52 “WORKING THE LEVERS”: 53 SEVAREID, HANOI HAD AGREED: PP, III, 695 PP, IV, 290–2 Ball, 376 Sevareid, in Look, 30 Nov 65 54 St Louis Post-Dispatch ON JOHNSON DENIALS: Spec Supp., D4 55 56 ITALIAN MISSION: in this book Kraslow, 130–1 All the foreign missions seeking negotiation are detailed Gelb, 152 from vols, of PP dealing with foreign negotiations, unpublished at the time of writing 57 MCNAUGHTON STATES DILEMMA: PP, IV, 48 WARSAW TALKS: 58 $2 BILLION A MONTH: Wicker, 271 59 300 ACRES OF RICE: 60 “HUTS GO UP IN … FLAME”: 63 300 PENTAGON LOBBYISTS: 64 HUMPHREY, “IF YOU FEEL AN URGE”: 65 FULBRIGHT REGRETTED TONKIN ROLE: 66 SENATE FRC HEARINGS: 68 ROCKEFELLER, “SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT”: 69 GUNNAR MYRDAL: 70 JASON BOMBING SURVEY: Powers, 224; on extent of defoliation, see Lewy, 258 ibid., 223, quoting Frank Harvey, Air War—Vietnam, New York, 1968 61 Ladies Home Journal: Jan 1967 62 CONGRESS “SURPRISINGLY PATIENT”: Taylor, 321 Hardin, 83 q Powers, 48 Wilcox, 29 see under U.S Congress, rusk: on 28 Jan and 18 Feb EISENHOWER DENIAL OF COMMITMENT: NYT, 18 Aug 65, “Military Pledge to Saigon Is Denied by Eisenhower,” p 67 TAYLOR AT HEARINGS: 17 Feb, 450 FULBRIGHT ON AMERICAN REVOLUTION: 17 Feb, 441 GAVIN: Feb MORSETAYLOR ON “WEAKNESS”: 17 Feb, 454–5 KENNAN: 10 Feb NYT, Feb 66 NYT Magazine, 18 July 65 PP, IV, 115–20, 166, 702–66 71 72 73 Warnke, q Gelb, 139, from oral interview in LBJ papers, ANNUAL RATE OF 500,000 TONS: Hanson Baldwin in NYT, 30 Dec 66 “WE ANTICIPATED … LIKE REASONABLE PEOPLE”: MC NAMARA’S DOUBTS: IV, 136 halberstam, 630 PP (NYT), 510–16 SYSTEMS ANALYSIS, NOT WORTH THE COST: PP, Thomson, “Resigning from Government”; see also Gra , 24, and Studs Terkel, “Servant of the State: A Conversation with Daniel Ellsberg,” Harper’s, Feb 1972 74 “DEAN RUSK IS A RECORDED ANNOUNCEMENT”: Halberstam, 634 SILENT DEPARTURES: 75 LBJ, “WHO KNOWS HOW LONG”: 76 “MINIMUM ESSENTIAL FORCE”: 77 PROTEST SEEN AS “ENCOURAGING THE COMMUNISTS”: 78 JOHNSON’S RATING TURNS NEGATIVE: 79 q Graff, 104 PP, II, 511 ibid., 60 Beyond Vietnam, KING, “GREATEST PURVEYOR”: NYT, Apr 67 “SPIRITUAL CONFUSION”: 80 “YOU VOTED IN ‘64 …”: 81 LIPPMANN, “DECENT PEOPLE NO LONGER SUPPORT”: 82 JAMES THOMSON LETTER: 83 GENERAL SHOUP, “POPPYCOCK”: 84 POLL, 48 YES, 48 NO: 85 PHAM VAN DONG, “BASIS FOR SETTLEMENT”: 86 AMERICANS AND NORTH VIETNAMESE CONFERRED: 87 TWO AMERICANS TO HANOI: 88 LBJ, “MORE THAN OUR PART”: 89 “DEEP CONVICTION IN HANOI”: 90 HAROLD WILSON-KOSYGIN NEGOTIATION: 91 MC NAUGHTON, “SUCCESSFULLY, OR ELSE”: 92 “HE WAS A MISERABLE MAN”: 93 STENNIS HEARINGS: 94 MC NAMARA, “DESTROYING THE COUNTRYSIDE”: 95 96 Harris, 67 NATIONAL COUNCIL OF CHURCHES: Logue and Patton, 324 NYT, Nov 66 Steel, 571 NYT, June 67 NYT obit., 16 Jan 83 Logue and Patton, 326 Jan 67, Cooper, 501 Kraslow, 167–74, Cooper, 346–7 Ashmore and Baggs, Kraslow, 200 31 Dec 66 LETTER TO HO CHI MINH: U THANT, “CALCULATED RISK”: ibid., 208 Kraslow, 206 q Gelb, 164, from unpublished PP vols Kraslow, 186–98, Herring, 168–9 May 67 Memorandum for President, PP, IV, 477–9 Moyers to author PP, IV, 199–204; Sharp, ibid., 191–7 q Macpherson, 430–1 COLLEAGUES STARED: q Cohen, 277 STUDY IN DOLLAR VALUES: PP, IV, 136 ibid., 223 “WE ARE UNABLE TO DEVISE”: ibid., 224–5 CIA, “SO INTOLERABLE”: BOMB TOTAL 1.5 MILLION TONS: PP, IV, 216 ibid SYSTEMS ANALYSIS, SUPPLY ROUTES: 97 AUBRAC-MARCOVICH MISSION: July 67, Kraslow 98 BURCHETT, “DEEP SKEPTICISM”: Kraslow, 227–8 99 Saturday Evening Post: 18 Nov 67 100 “DESTROY THE TOWN IN ORDER TO SAVE IT”: heard by public over TV The town was Ben Tre Wall Street Journal 23 Feb 68 101 CLIFFORD TASK FORCE: Schandler, 121–76; Clifford, Foreign Affairs 102 KENNAN, “MEN IN A DREAM” : q Hoopes, Limits, 178 103 CLIFFORD’S TOUR OF SEATO NATIONS: 104 DISENCHANTMENT: Clifford, Foreign Affairs; Hoopes, Limits, 186–95 105 SYSTEMS ANALYSIS: PP, IV, 558 106 CLIFFORD, “NOT ONLY ENDLESS BUT HOPELESS” 107 SENATOR TYDINGS: 108 CRONKITE BROADCAST: 109 “THE SHOCK WAVES” ibid., 169–71 NITZE: ibid., 199 : Clifford, Foreign Affairs Macpherson, 420 DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE TELEGRAM: q Powers, 300 transcript supplied by Mr Cronkite : q Schandler, 198 110 Time, “VICTORY IN VIETNAM”: 15 Mar 68 111 SENATE FRC HEARINGS: NYT, Mar 68 QUESTIONED AUTHORITY OF THE PRESIDENT: Schandler, 211 COULDN’T” : Senator Jackson, q ibid 112 ACHESON REVIEW: “WE JUST Hoopes, Limits, 205; Kendrick, 259 113 SPEECH TO NATIONAL FARMERS UNION: NYT, 19 Mar 68 ROWE REPORTS CALLS: Rowe Mem to President, 19 Mar 68, q Schandler, 249 114 “WISE MEN” CONFERENCE: Ridgway, Foreign Affairs, PP, IV, 266–8; Ball, 407–09 115 CLIFFORD, “TREMENDOUS EROSION” : Macpherson, 435; Hoopes, Limits, 219 116 CABLET TO AMBASSADORS: 117 WHEELER TO CINCPAC ON DECREASE OF SUPPORT: 118 FIELD AGENTS TELEPHONED: PP, IV, 595 q Schandler, 279 Theodore White, 118 Exit “IF THE WAR GOES ON SIX MONTHS” Herring, 219 REISCHAUER, NO GUARANTEE: RAND RANGE OF OPTIONS: “ACCEPTABLE INTERVAL” : to Harrison Salisbury; Salisbury to author, “END UP LIKE LBJ” Beyond Vietnam, 19 Konrad Kellen, one of the RAND specialists, to author : q St Louis Post-Dispatch, Spec Supp., D2 : q AN AMERICAN SERGEANT, AWOLS: “NOVEMBER OPTION” “A LITTLE FOURTH-RATE POWER” “DORMANT BEAST” ARMS FOR VIETNAMIZATION: q Richard Dudman, St Louis Post-Dispatch, Spec Supp., D10 : Szulc, 152 : q ibid., 150 : Kissinger, 244 G Warren Nutter, Asst Sec of Defense under Nixon, in Am Enterprise Vietnam Settlement, 71 10 “LOSE THE WAR IN VIETNAM—BRING THE BOYS HOME”: q Kissinger, 307 “BUMS”: q Herring, 232 Mitchell, “LIKE THE RUSSIAN REVOLUTION”: q Kendrick, 296 11 “SOUGHT TO DESTROY HIM” : Kissinger, 299 12 “TO END THE WAR IN A WAY” 13 BURKE, “SHOW THE THING YOU CONTEND FOR” 14 SAINTENY, “HOPELESS ENTERPRISE” : q Theodore White, 130 : Speech of 19 Apr 1774, Hansard, XVIII : q Ball, 411 15 “WITHOUT AGREEMENT WITH HANOI”: Kissinger, 271 16 “CONTINUATION … LESS ATTRACTIVE” : ibid., 262 17 SORTIES SYSTEMATICALLY FALSIFIED: 18 FBI WIRE-TAPS: 19 “THOSE LIBERAL BASTARDS” 20 NIXON’S SPEECH ANNOUNCING CAMBODIA CAMPAIGN: 21 “MILITARY HALLUCINATION” 22 250 STATE DEPT STAFF MEMBERS: 23 SAN JOSE INCIDENT: 28 POLL, “MORALLY WRONG” Shawcross, 19–35; Kissinger, 253 Kissinger, 252 : q Szulc, 158 30 Apr JO COSVN: KISSINGER , 490, 506 : q ibid., 511, n.d ibid., 513 Sa re, 325 “WE COULD SEE THE HATE”: q ibid., 329; St Louis Post-Dispatch, Spec Supp., D3 24 COLSON, “SIEGE MENTALITY”: q Herring, 233 “GENUINELY BELIEVED”: q John Roche in Lake, 132 WHITE HOUSE STAFF MEMBER: Thomas Charles Huston, Sa re, 297 SEVENTEEN WIRE-TAPS, Kissinger, 252 25 “RIGHT OUT OF THE OVAL OFFICE”: John Dean’s testimony, q Congressional Quarterly Service, 991 26 CONGRESS “A BODY OF FOLLOWERS”: Riegle, diary entry for June 71 On role of Congress on Vietnam in Nixon’s term, see Frye and Sullivan in Lake, 199–209, also Congressional Quarterly Service and of course Kissinger, passim 27 ARVN, FIGHTING TO ALLOW AMERICANS TO DEPART: Fitzgerald, 416 : Harris, 73 29 LORD NORTH, “ILL SUCCESS” : in May 1783, q Valentine, North, II, 313 30 “THE BASTARDS HAVE NEVER BEEN BOMBED” 31 “COULD MAKE OR BREAK” 33 MAO, “DO AS I DID” 34 NIXON, “MY ABSOLUTE ASSURANCE” 35 AIR POWER FROM BASES IN THAILAND: 36 KISSINGER BACKED AWAY FROM AGREED TERMS: 37 “WE HAD WALKED THE LAST MILE” 39 ULTIMATUM TO THIEU: 40 “A HOUSE WITHOUT ANY FOUNDATION” 41 KISSINGER, “THE BREAKDOWN” 42 FORD, “CREDIBILITY … ESSENTIAL” 44 “NO EXPERTS AVAILABLE” 45 CONGRESSMAN FROM MICHIGAN: : q Herring, 241 : q Carl Bernstein and Robert Woodward, All the President’s Men, New York, 1974, 265 32 “RATFUCKING”: ibid., 127–8 : q Szulc, 610 : Kissinger, 1412 Gelb, 349 Herring, 246 : Paul Warnke, Asst Sec of Defense 1967–69, succeeding McNaughton, American Enterprise Debate, 125 38 DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS: Congress and Nation, III Kissinger, 1459 : q Dudman, St Louis Post-Dispatch, Spec Supp.,D 10 : Kissinger, 520 : message to Congress, Jan 75 conference of 26 Mar 75 43 RIDGWAY, “IT SHOULD NOT HAVE TAKEN”: in Foreign Affairs KISSINGER, “FUNDAMENTAL THREAT” : press : McNamara to author Riegle, entry in diary for 20 Apr 71 Epilogue “A LANTERN ON THE STERN” REFERENCE NOTES “SERVANT OF DIVINE REASON” : Morton Smith in Columbia History of the World, ed John Garraty and Peter Gay, New York, 1972, 210 PLATO, “GOLDEN CORD,” PUPPETS, DISEASE OF THE SOUL: Laws, I, 644–5, III, 689B TACITUS, “MOST FLAGRANT” : Annals, Bk XV, chap 53 : to Tench Coxe, 1799, q Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, 3rd ed., 1980, 272, no 11 ADAM SMITH, “AND THUS PLACE”: Theory of Moral Sentiments I, iii, 2, q Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, 509, no JEFFERSON, “WHENEVER A MAN” Wayne S Cole, Senator Gerald P Nye and American Foreign Relations, Minneapolis, 1962, 67 EISENHOWER, “EVERYONE IS TOO CAUTIOUS”: Diaries, for 11 June 51 SENATOR NORRIS: PLATO, “THE WORST OF DISEASES” : Laws, III, 691D “INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL” COLERIDGE, “IF MEN COULD LEARN” “HE HAD NO CHOICE” : Kissinger, 54 : Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, 157, no 20 : Schlesinger, 538 10 “MAGNANIMITY IN POLITICS” : Speech on Conciliation, 22 Mar 1775, Hansard, XVIII 11 “CRIMESTOP” 13 MONTAIGNE, “RESOLUTION AND VALOR” : I owe the citation of this passage to Je rey Race, “The Unlearned Lessons of Vietnam,” Yale Review, Winter 1977, 166 12 STORY OF DARIUS: Herodotus, Bk III, chaps 82–6 14 II, 36 LILLIPUTIANS “HAVE MORE REGARD” : Complete Essays, trans Donald M Frame, Stanford, 1965, : Jonathan Swift, Gulliver’s Travels, Part One, chap About the Author BARBARA W TUCHMAN achieved prominence as a historian with The Zimmermann Telegram and international fame with The Guns of August, a huge best-seller and winner of the Pulitzer Prize There followed ve more books: The Proud Tower, Stilwell and the American Experience in China (also awarded the Pulitzer Prize), A Distant Mirror, Practicing History, a collection of essays, and, most recently, The March of Folly The First Salute was Mrs Tuchman’s last book before her death in February 1989 ... praise for The March of Folly “In The March of Folly, Barbara Tuchman, as usual, breaks all the rules She sails forth with bold moral purpose at a time when most other popular historians hug the shores... consequence.” The New York Times Book Review The specter of this ultimate folly [nuclear war] hangs over Barbara Tuchman s brilliant and troubling book, The March of Folly, like a ghost from the future... pomposity.” —Newsweek The specter of this ultimate folly [nuclear war] hangs over Barbara Tuchman s brilliant and troubling book, The March of Folly, like a ghost from the future She addresses