Bài tập Phân tích điểm hòa vốn Quyết định đưa sản phẩm thị trường phân tích hồi quy Analysis of the breakeven point - Decision to bring products to market Regression analyzes TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS PREAMBLE RESEARCH OF CONTENT Rationale for resolving issues raised in Exercise 1.1 New products and problems faced by developing new products 2.2 To minimize the risk of launching new products to the market Solve problems posed in exercises Rationale to resolve issues raised in exercise Solve the problem posed in exercise 4.1 Determination regression function between the variables and analyze the impact of each factor to the variables: 4.2 Inspection of the real impact of each factor to the amount of goods with a significance level of 5% 13 4.2.1 Inspection of the regression coefficient β1 whether actual relationship between the number of workers per shift (X1) with the volume of goods placed in shifts (Y) 14 4.2.2 Inspection of the regression coefficient β2 whether actual relationship between the number of trucks (X2) with the volume of goods placed in shifts (Y) 14 4.2.3 Inspection of the regression coefficient β3 whether real relationship between the number of excavators (X3) with the volume of goods placed in shifts (Y) 15 4.3 Coefficient of multiple determination and sense .15 4.4 Testing the suitability of the model 16 4.5 Prediction of loading and unloading of goods 17 CONCLUSION 18 LIST OF REFERENCES 19 PREAMBLE Basic content management operations are making the decision, because the administration of an organization from the simple daily tasks to the major strategic, long-term basis and are based on the appropriate decisions Administrators desired outcomes like other words, it is the goal set for management decisions To be able to perform well this step, administrators should regularly monitor and supervise the implementation of the plan and the plan chosen Catch the information used is correct? Planning is done how? Outcomes of the plan laid out? In the process of implementing decisions will arise many problems yourself administrators and colleagues could not foresee Therefore, the monitoring and inspection will help administrators understand the problems arising to be addressed in the implementation of the decision On that basis, conduct revise, supplement or amendment to management decisions in accordance with the actual job requirements and so the results will be better An effective decision is logical decisions based on the information available and reflect the preferences of the decision maker The important thing to understand here is that the effectiveness of the decision is not related to its effects A good decision can bring both good and bad consequences Similarly, a bad decision (decision due to lack of information or does not reflect the preferences of the decision) can bring a positive result The decision to achieve the objectives effectively with the considerations of cost, effort and related consequences Whether alternative measures to bring negative consequences for choices made are expected to be less than zero? Decisions must also pay attention to side effects or indirect advantage A candidate for the position the employee may have the ability to excel not directly related to the ability to work, but this could be useful for the company Again, remember to pay attention to this RESEARCH OF CONTENT Rationale for resolving issues raised in Exercise 1.1 New products and problems faced by developing new products With the rapidly changing consumer tastes, technology and competitive manufacturing market, a business can not rely on its existing products are Customers always want and expect new products and more complete The opponent will our best to launch products with high competitiveness So every business should have a program to develop new products Businesses can get a new product in two ways: one is through the acquisition (asquisition), by purchasing a business, a patent, or a license to manufacture other products The second way is through the development of new products, by forming part of research and development itself or contract with individuals and organizations in research and development to implementation We will focus on the analysis of the development process of new products Today in developed countries, only about 10% of the new product is really new to the world These products cost and great risk, because they both for new businesses and markets Therefore, most businesses tend to focus their efforts on research to improve existing products rather than research and development of new products For example, Sony spent 80% of new product activity for the improvement of its existing products The development of new products fail more often than succeed Why have many new products fail? There are many reasons A senior administrator may have supported the idea that he preferred, despite the results showed that the adverse marketing Or the idea is good, but people have overestimated the size of its market Or the product has not been made perfectly adequate Or it was the wrong position in the market, or advertising are not careful, or so overvalued Sometimes the cost to deploy higher than expected, or the competitors reacted strongly than now planned So the situation now facing the dilemma, they must deploy new products but not sure what success Businesses can reduce risk by planning more systematic and establish a process of developing new products more efficiently 2.2 To minimize the risk of launching new products to the market The development of new products starts with finding new ideas A business often have formed many ideas to find the best ideas The search for new ideas must be conducted in a systematic way and can not be a coincidence To form new ideas about products, enterprises must actively studied from many different sources -Customer Marketing standpoint, the needs and expectations of customers is the starting point for any new product ideas Through the study of the major groups of customers using products now in the polls, interviews and tests or exchange personal focus groups and through the suggestion, their complaints, joint can now find out what the requirements for product improvement they pose for manufacturers and researchers to develop products that can detect ideas or creative inspiration for new products - The leading experts Businesses can also rely on the opinion of leading scientists, engineers, designers and skilled in outside businesses to form ideas about new products - Competitors Learn intention of competitors and researching their products and why customers choose to use competitors 'products is a great way to make product improvements than competitors' products competition - The supplier and distributor phamla a source of important information for shaping the idea feasible They always are close customer, understand ideas praise or complain about products now from our customers, so there may be a good idea in designing innovative products to deal better meet the demands and expectations of customers - Leadership is now a major source of new ideas arising product They can propose and implementation to the idea of their new products or support the idea that they are promising success, or not to accept an idea is good but they are not appreciated During this period, in order to overcome these errors can occur, businesses can apply the method conceived as methods listed properties (analyze, evaluate the properties are, from design solutions that improve and create new products), the morphological analysis (detection of structural survey of the relationship between them and find new ways of combining), the detection of needs and problems through customer reviews, or method of creative brainstorming in groups (encouraged to provide as many ideas as possible, not to criticize, encourage and develop combined standard idea) Solve problems posed in exercises a) According to the principle of A: With the assumption that the demand for products with a normal distribution, the principle of a speech that will bring products to market if μ> BE (the Break-even point) According to the information given by the fan market that the company is consumed with an average consumption of the product μ = 4000 and 3500 new product, the break in the first year Therefore, companies should put this fan on the market The decision can be illustrated as the following graph: b) Draw a graph of a normal distribution: We see 4000 as the average consumption If the Break-even point is 3500 products then (D> BE)> 0.5, while the average for 4000 will be greater than 3500 c) Show that the two principles lead to one decision: - In principle B: According to the calculations above, the probability that the demand is greater than the Break-even point, ie P (D> 3500) = 0.8413 This probability is greater than minimal risk that the company wants is 0.8 Thus says the principle B, then the company should bring products to market There are presently estimated by the 2nd is the average demand at the breakeven point M: M=BE – zpσ với P(z>zp)=p With p = 0.8, so P (z> ZP) = 0.8, thus ZP = -0.84 So M=3500+0,84*500=3920 I still get 4000> 3920, thus company should still bring products to market Illustrations calculated as the graph below Rationale to resolve issues raised in exercise Also known as multiple regression method, using analysis of the relationship between several independent variables (ie explanatory variables or variable causes) affects dependent variables (ie, variables or variable analysis results) In fact, there are many economic problems - both areas of business and economics, require multiple regression method Such as analysis of the factors affecting the national income, the volatility of foreign exchange rates; Reviews of revenue in case of multiple items; analyze the total cost of the many factors that impact; detailed cost analysis; causes affecting mass consumption An economic indicators simultaneously affected by many factors positively or mixed together Such as sales and prices dependent, socially average income, interest rate, seasons, weather, advertising and marketing,etc, On the other hand, among the factors to correlate well with the linear internal in together Regression analysis has helped us test the hypotheses about the impact of these factors and the impact, both quantitative economic relations between them Since then, as the basis for analyzing and forecasting the appropriate policy decisions, efficiency, promote growth Multivariate regression equations as linear: Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + … + biXi + bnXn + e (1.12) Where: Y: the dependent variable (analysis); b0: launch of the original; b1: the slope of the equation according to the variables Xi; Xi: variables (factors influence); e: error terms Note: Y in the above equation is expressed as Y estimates, it is often written in the form of fertile (Yˆ ) The goal of regression method is based on historical data variables Yi, Xi, the algorithm used to find the parameters b0 and bi build regression equation to predict the average estimate of variable Yi From research and content analysis methods can find systems analysis includes factors closely related to each other: details, compare, contact, eliminating (replace continuous), correlation regression,etc, mission of the Organization for business analysis is to build relationships between these factors in each specific content analysis such as production, supply and consumption, costs, financial,etc, to appreciate good business situation of units and outlines potential can be exploited in the next trading period Thus, organizational analysis is the use of synthetic methods of analysis to assess the correct results, indicating mistakes and seek measures to correct deficiencies in the business This is a basic requirement, it is very practical for business managers Obviously, in any business or studying behavior in general, roughly surely fail So after understanding the content, methods of analysis should inform the choice of content, collect and examine documents by content fixing, building system selection criteria and methods to adapt the system Additionally, as well as any other institutional, organizational analysis should be completed regularly in order to satisfy more fully than the demand for business management, this is generalized content distribution stages of the principal Solve the problem posed in exercise 4.1 Determination regression function between the variables and analyze the impact of each factor to the variables: We conventions: Dependent variable: Y: The number of goods listed in the cases (units tons / shifts) Independent variables: X1: Number of employees working in shifts X2: Number of trucks in shifts X3: Number of excavator in shifts From the multiple regression equation of the form ^ Y = β + β1 X + β X + + β n X n I would have assumed the corresponding equations are looking for is: ^ Y = β + β1 X + β X + β3 X With the data given, tool use Excel, we get the corresponding parameters: 10 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.99677643 R Square 0.99356325 Adjusted R Square 0.99218395 Standard Error 50.7516705 Observations 18 The quantity of goods placed in shifts Number Numberofofemployees employees Number of trucks Number of excavator 11 Since the value of R Square = 0.99356325, we can see that 99.4% of the change to the quantity of goods can be classified in shifts explained by the linear relationship between the amount of goods in shifts with variables as number of workers, number of trucks and excavators number We see the value of P - value of the three variables X1, X2 and X3 are very small compared with statistical significance was 5% (or 0.05) can thus conclude linear relationship between these variables with the dependent variable The regression equation of the form: ^ Y = −402,57 + 17,49 X + 109,61X + 244,55 X Note: In equation value β o = - 402,57 Because when we not have all three factors are workers, trucks and excavators, no goods will be handling, Y value must be equal to not be less than Therefore, the regression model is meaningful only on the simultaneous presence of all three factors and conditions must be satisfied values 17,49 X +109,61X + 244,55 X > 402.57 Through simple calculations we see that there must be at least workers, excavator and trucks to be able to ensure the operation in normal shifts In three workers, one to drive the excavator, a drive to transport workers and one remaining perform other handling operations Since then, we have added conditions to the regression equation mean is: Number of employees working in shifts X1 ≥ 3; Number of trucks in shifts X2 ≥ 1; Number of excavator in shifts X3 ≥ According to the regression equation, with 95%, we have: When the number of excavators and trucks in shifts constant, if the number of workers in shifts increased 1don you are ranked in shifts of goods increased 17.49 tons and vice versa, when the amount of shifts workers a decrease in the 12 other factors constant, the quantity of goods placed in shifts also decreased 17.49 tons When the number of workers and excavators in shifts constant, the number of trucks in shifts increased by unit, placed in the shifts of goods increased 109.61 tons and vice versa, when the number of trucks in a decrease in shifts when other factors constant, the quantity of goods placed in shifts also decreased 109.61 tons When the number of trucks and the number of workers employed in shifts constant, the number of shifts increased excavator unit is placed in the shifts of goods increased 244.55 tons and vice versa, when the number amount of excavator in a decrease in shifts when other factors constant, the quantity of goods placed in shifts also decreased 244.55 tons At the same time the number of employees, number of trucks, excavators number must meet the conditions as stated In addition to explaining the significance of each factor, we found in the regression function equation: ^ Y = −402,57 + 17,49 X + 109,61X + 244,55 X Then whether the coefficient of X1, X2, X3, is positive, it is consistent with economic theory that we not offer For example, the variable X2 is positive is consistent with the theory because the number of trucks in shifts increased, the volume of cargo loading and unloading of shifts also increased So here is a positive sign, suitable for X as the independent variable increases, the dependent variable Y also increases 4.2 Inspection of the real impact of each factor to the amount of goods with a significance level of 5% With a statistical sample of 18, statistical significance of 5%, we go testing hypotheses about the regression coefficients as follows: k = 3; n=18; α = 5% Student Investigation distribution panels have value t18 -3+1;α/2 = 2,12 We tested the significance of each independent variable X on the dependent variable Y 13 4.2.1 Inspection of the regression coefficient β1 whether actual relationship between the number of workers per shift (X1) with the volume of goods placed in shifts (Y) Pair should make the assumption that:  H : β1 =   H : β1 ≠ H0:There is no relationship between the number of workers with the volume of goods placed in shifts; H1:What is the relationship between the number of workers classified cargo volume in shifts Calibration standards used statistics are t: t= b1 17,49 = = 3,469 S b1 5,042 Thus the value t = 3.469> value t18 -3+1; α/2 = 2,12 should at significance α = 5%, assuming H0 is rejected, the hypothesis H1 is accepted Also can look at the P value of the variable X1 corresponding to β1 = 0,0038 < α = 5% thus reject H0, H1 accepted Conclusion: There is actually a linear relationship between the number of workers to the volume of goods placed in shifts 4.2.2 Inspection of the regression coefficient β2 whether actual relationship between the number of trucks (X2) with the volume of goods placed in shifts (Y) Pair should test the hypothesis that: H : β =   H1 : β ≠ H0: There is no relationship between the number of trucks in shifts with blocks ranked in shifts of goods; H1: What is the relationship between the number of vehicles transporting cargo volume ranked in shifts Calibration standards used are statistics t: t= b2 109,61 = = 10,198 S b2 10,748 Thus the value t = 10,198 > value t18 -3+1; α/2 = 2,12 should at significance α = 5%, hypothesis H0 is rejected, the hypothesis H1 is accepted 14 Looking at the P-value of the variable X2 corresponding to β = 7,32E-08 < α = 5%, thus reject H0, H1 accepted Conclusion: There is actually a linear relationship between the number of vehicles transporting cargo volume ranked in shifts 4.2.3 Inspection of the regression coefficient β3 whether real relationship between the number of excavators (X3) with the volume of goods placed in shifts (Y) Pair should make the assumption that: H : β =   H1 : β ≠ H0: There is no relationship between the number of shifts excavator volume goods classified in shifts; H1: What is the relationship between the number of excavators with cargo volume ranked in shifts Calibration standards used are statistics t: t= b3 244,55 = = 4,865 S b 50,262 Thus the value t = 4,865 > value t18 -3+1; α/2 = 2,12, should at significance α = 5%, the hypothesis H0 is rejected, the hypothesis H1 is accepted Also, look at the value of the variable P X corresponding to β = 0.0002< α = 5%, Conclusion: There is actually a linear relationship between the number of excavators volume of goods placed in shifts 4.3 Coefficient of multiple determination and sense Estimating confidence intervals of the coefficients β j reliability (1-α) 100% is determined by the formula: βj = bj ± t n-k+1, α/2 x Sbj - Determine the coefficient β1: β1 = b1 ± t 18-3+1, α/2 x Sb1  β1 = b1 ± t 18-3+1, α/2 x Sb1= 17,49 ± 2,12 x 5,042 = 17,49 ± 10,69  6,80 ≤ β1 ≤ 28,18 (ton/shifts) So with 95% confidence intervals, each time adding a number of workers who are placed in cargo volumes will increase in shifts ranging from 6.80 to 28.18 tons / shift 15 - Determine the coefficients β2: β2 = b2 ± t 18-3+1, α/2 x Sb2  β2 = 109,61 ± 2,12 x 10,748 = 109,61 ± 22,79  86,82 ≤ β2 ≤ 132,39 (ton/shifts) Thus, with 95% confidence intervals, whenever some trucks increased the volume of a commodity will increase ratings in shifts ranging from 86.82 to 132.39 tons / shift - Determine the coefficients β3: β3 = b3 ± t 18-3+1, α/2 x Sb3  β3 = 244,55 ± 2,12 x 50,262 = 244,55 ± 106,56  137,99 ≤ β3 ≤ 351,11 (ton/shifts) Thus, with 95% confidence intervals, each time adding a number of excavators, the volume of the goods listed in the shifts will increase from 137.99 to 351.11 range tons / shift - Coefficient of multiple determination R2: R2 = 0,9936 The model explains 99.36% on the change of the number of employees, number of cars trucks and excavators affect the volume of goods placed in shifts The level of contact is very tight - - The correlation coefficient R: R = 0,996776 > R> and close to shows the relationship between the number of workers, number of trucks and excavators volume of goods in shifts placed very close relationship and it is easy 4.4 Testing the suitability of the model Check the model is appropriate or not we go check on the suitability of a specific regression model was reviewed on independent variables X affects Y variables at the same time or not I am going to test the hypothesis pairs: H : β1 = β = β = H1: at least one coefficient ≠ H0: All are not independent variables affect Y variables simultaneously H1: At least one independent variable affects the variable Y 16 Looking at the results of the spreadsheet, the user testing has named F Comparison of variable portion of the factors in the model with the variability due to factors outside the model From the spreadsheet we have F = 720.34 to know the fit of the regression model Besides the value of F It is worth 1,43E-15, Pvalue = α smaller than reject H0 thus, concluded regression function is suitable or can speak at least one other variable Thus, the regression relationship between the factors mentioned are suitable 4.5 Prediction of loading and unloading of goods No Number of Number of employees trucks Number of Number of cargo vehicles handling in shifts (ton / excavator shifts) The coefficient 17.49 15 15 15 15 Comment: 109.61 244.55 4 b0 = - 402,57 1,386.03 1,495.64 1,360.70 1,225.76 We found that, with the same number of workers participating in cargo handling, but when changing the number of trucks and excavators, the cargo is handling is different If the worker is 15, the number of trucks is 5, the excavator was predictive value is the value of goods unloaded in shifts is 1386.03 tonnes - In the case of 2, 3, 4, with the same 15 workers, total trucks and excavators are 10, the number of trucks is excavators and will be unloaded cargo volume is optimal - When the amount of trucks increased while the number of excavators reduced the amount of goods will decline as the proportion between excavator and trucks also need to keep at a certain rate (6/4 = 1.5 trucks / excavator) This was clearly demonstrated when the proportion of substandard on (5 trucks / = 1.25 excavator trucks / excavator), loading and unloading of goods is not optimal as the event rate 1.5 transportation / excavator 17 CONCLUSION Make a list of all possible options that you have in it, including the choice to nothing Itself does not choose one of these possibilities have been proposed as well as a decision The decision is not without interest, as we mentioned above, but sometimes it is beneficial or even better than some other alternative decisions so this should be deliberately used in decision-making process You should also make sure that you not only pay attention to finding alternative methods are available, but also to create the method has not yet appeared For example, if you want to choose to pursue specialized in the field, not just think of the industry in the catalog which is available to create your own course again The decisions taken must be approved by the people who it and those who are affected by such decisions both rational and emotional It is an important factor because sometimes it can cause conflicts In this case select a solution but less effective but more accepted A decision if only technically perfect but not social, it will not work Only those decisions are made carefully and meticulously they are effective and how they are looking forward doi.Nhu we all know, each one usually has a lot of problems to solve and tasks of the decision is to choose one of them The selection can be very simple but very complex may also depend on the importance of the decision In addition, the amount and reliability of the other options can also be adjusted based on importance, time and the elements thereof 18 LIST OF REFERENCES 1) Management decision making, Dr Nguyen Manh The, 2014 [2] International Business Administration, Associate Professor Dr Ngo Thi Tuyet Mai, 2014 [3] Decision Management, Le Minh Tung, 2013 [4] Skills Management decisions, Doan Xuan Tiep, 2013 [5] Now in the process of integration, Le Thi Phuong Thao, 2013 [6] Enterprise management tools, Nguyen Thanh Pho, 2013 [7] Corporate governance handbook, Nguyen Manh Son, 2013 19 ... the following graph: b) Draw a graph of a normal distribution: We see 4000 as the average consumption If the Break-even point is 3500 products then (D> BE)> 0.5, while the average for 4000 will... market Illustrations calculated as the graph below Rationale to resolve issues raised in exercise Also known as multiple regression method, using analysis of the relationship between several independent... trucks in shifts with blocks ranked in shifts of goods; H1: What is the relationship between the number of vehicles transporting cargo volume ranked in shifts Calibration standards used are statistics