ĐẠI HỌC QUỐC GIA HÀ NỘI TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KHOA HỌC TỰ NHIÊN - T T ĐÁNH GIÁ KHẢ NĂNG DỰ BÁO HẠN MÙA CỦA MỘT SỐ MÔ HÌNH KHÍ HẬU KHU VỰC CHO VIỆT NAM LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KHOA HỌC Hà Nội – 2015 ĐẠI HỌC QUỐC GIA HÀ NỘI TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KHOA HỌC TỰ NHIÊN - T T ĐÁNH GIÁ KHẢ NĂNG DỰ BÁO HẠN MÙA CỦA MỘT SỐ MÔ HÌNH KHÍ HẬU KHU VỰC CHO VIỆT NAM Chuyên ngành: K t n k ậu Mã số: 61.44.87 LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KHOA HỌC NGƯỜI HƯỚNG DẪN KHOA HỌC: TS V T n H n Hà Nội - 2015 LỜI C M N T i xin ày t l n T n H n n i n n u t T i ộm nK n v n n n i lời m n n n i ri n un n t ã i p i tron t ời i n qu Cuối n n luận v n n t àn t y vi n t n n t i ời t n ã lu n n ộ tron K o K n mon muốn n t n t o i u ki n t uận l i Trun t m T n tin D li u k tới i i p i n luận v n n i n ời t y ã tận t m n i t t n n xin t i t n s u sắ tới GS TS P n V n T n TS V t m n n t yv n ã i mon muốn n n ộn vi n i p t n T t i n t y v n H i oàn t àn luận n n n i p tron tl n i p i lời m n k ắ p vi n n t àn k k n t k t qu tốt n t L T T n M C C NG i DANH M C DANH M C H NH NH ii DANH M C C C K HI U VI T TẮT iv MỞ Đ U CHƯ NG TỔNG QUAN 1 K i qu t un v o t ời ti t ok ậu 1.1.1 Khát quát chung 1.1.2 C p 1.1.3 C n p p m n Tổn qu n n 1.2.1 Tr n t ok ok i n u n ậu ậu i s n p ẩm o m 13 iới 13 1.2.2 Tron n 17 13Đ n i s n p ẩm 1.3.1 M o 18 ý n 1.3.2 C ĩ n uy n lý un vi n o ài to n i s n p ẩm n i tl o 18 n s n p ẩm o 20 CHƯ NG PHƯ NG PH P MÔ H NH VÀ SỐ LI U 21 21P n p p 22M n n i ok o m 21 ậu k u v o Vi t N m 30 2.2.1 Mô hình RegCM 4.2 30 2.2.2 Mô hình clWRF (Climate Weather Research and Forecasting) 35 Số li u x lý số li u 38 CHƯ NG K T QU 41 N i t ộ trun 3.1.1 T n 41 n qu n 41 3.1.2 S i số trun 3.1.3 C số n 46 n 3.1.4 P n ố t n su t 32N i t ộ 3.2.1 T op 51 o n t Tx 52 n qu n 52 3.2.2 S i số trun 3.2.3 C i t ốn k 49 số n 55 n 3.2.4 P n ố t n su t i t ốn k 57 op 59 3 N i t ộ t p n t n ày 59 3.3.1 T n qu n 59 3.3.2 S i số trun 3.3.3 C số n 64 n 3.3.4 P n ố t n su t 34L n m i t ốn k 66 op 67 68 K T LUẬN 73 TÀI LI U THAM KH O 75 PH L C 81 DANH M C BẢNG n 11 Đ n n 21 i k t qu o Finley (1884) 14 n t ốn k n ẫu n i n 24 n 22 D n s tr m k t n 39 n C số t ốn k ối với n i t ộ trun n t n m n R CM WRF 50 n 32 n p n ố t n su t n 33 n số n i t ốn k m n R CM WRF o n i t ộ o n t t n 58 n 34 n s i số t ốn k m n R CM WRF o n i t ộ t p n t t n 67 n P n ố t n su t R CM với n op o T2m 51 op o l n m n ày t n v n m n o t n 69 n P n ố x su t o t o p l n m n ày m n WRF với n o t n 70 n P n ố x su t 11 v n với n o t o p l n m n ày m n R CM t n o t n 70 n P n ố x su t v n N1 với n o t o p l n m n ày m n R CM t n o t n 71 n 39 n m số n i t ốn k m n R CM WRF o tổn l n t n 72 i DANH M C HÌNH ẢNH Hn 21 M p n to n H n 2 Qui tr n H n Mi n t n Hn 24 P nv n k t i m 21 o 35 om n ok ậu k u v ậu Vi t N m N u n: k 37 ậu Vi t N m 40 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n R CM t n 12 t tr n xuốn ới với n o3 t n o k u v Vi t N m 42 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n R CM t n v n N1 với n o t n t n v n N3 với n o t n 43 H n 3 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n WRF o t n 12 o k u v Vi t N m n o3 t n 44 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n WRF o t n 12 o k u v Vi t N m n o6 t n 45 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n WRF ot n 6v n t n v n N3 với n o3 t n 45 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n WRF o t n v n N2 t n v n t n v n N3 với n o t n 46 H n Đ t s i số trun n t n T2m t m n R CM WRF với n o t n 47 H n S i số trun n t n T2m t m n R CM WRF với n o6 t n 48 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ o n t n ày Tx t m n R CM ot n o v n N1 N2 t n n với n o t n 53 Hn 31 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ o n t n ày Tx t m n WRF ot n o v n N2 t n v n N1 t n v n N3 với n o t n 53 H n 11 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ o n t n ày Tx t m n WRF ot n o v n t n n với n o t n 54 H n 12 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ o n t n ày Tx t m n WRF ot n o v n t n v n t n v n N1 t n v n N3 với n o t n 54 ii H n 13 S i số trun WRF với n n n i t ộ o n t trun n t n m n R CM o t n 55 H n 14 S i số trun n n i t ộ o n t trun n t n m n R CM WRF 56 H n 15 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ t p n t n ày Tn t m n R CM o t n o v n N2 t n v n với n o t n 60 H n 16 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ t p n t n ày Tn t m n R CM o t n 12 o v n t n v n N3 với n o t n 61 H n 17 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ t p n t n ày Tn t m n WRF o t n o v n N2 t n 11 v n t n 11 v n t n v n N3 với n o t n 62 H n 18 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ t p n t n ày Tn t m n WRF ot n ov n t n v n N2 t n v n N1 t n 12 v n N3 với n o6t n 63 H n 19 S i số trun WRF với n n t n n i t ộ t p n t n ày m n R CM o t n 64 Hn 32 n t n n i t ộ t p n t n ày m n R CM o t n 65 S i số trun WRF với n iii DANH M C CÁC KÍ HIỆU VI T TẮT AFWA AGCM AOGCM B1 B2 B3 B4 BATS BoM CFS CGCM CHLB CN ECMWF ETA Fcs GCM HRM JMA KHTN KTTV MM5 N1 N2 N3 NAM/SAM NCAR NCEP Obs PDO PNA RCM RegCM REMO SLP SST C k t n k n qu n M n oàn l u un k quy n M n k ậu k t p oàn l u un k quy n i n V n k ậu T y ắ V n k ậu Đ n ắ V n k ậu Đ n n ắ ộ V n k ậu ắ Trun ộ S t n t sin quy n-k quy n C qu n K t n Austr li H t ốn ok ậu NCEP T NCEP Clim t For System) M n k ậu toàn u p Coupl Glo l Clim t Mo l Cộn li n n C n n Trun t m ok t n nv C u u M n o t ời ti t p i t y tĩn D o For st M n k ậu toàn u Glo l lim te models) M n k uv ộ p n i i o Hi -resolution Regional Model) Tổ k t n N ật n K o t n i n K t n t yv n M n k t n ộn l qui m v (Mesoscale Meteorological Model) V n k ậu N m Trun ộ V n k ậu T y N uy n V n k ậu N m ộ N i u ộn ắ N m n u T Nort rn n Sout rn hemisphere Annular Modes) Trun t m Quố i n i n u k quy n Trung tâm o m tr ờn Quố i N tion l C nt r or Environmental Prediction) Qu n trắ O s rv (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Pacific/North American M n k uv M n k ậu k u v R ion l Clim t Mo l M n k uv T -Regional-Model) K p m t i n Sea Level Pressure) N i t ộ m t n i n (Sea Surface Temperature) iv st TSKH WMO WRF XTNĐ Ti n sĩ k o Tổ k t n t Mô n n i n u Xo y t uận n i t ới iới Worl M t orolo i l Or niz tion o t ời ti t W t r R s r For st v 1, N1 Tháng 279 Tháng 558 N Reg CM N1 O F 13-15 15-17 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 Tổng 13-15 15-17 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.2 2.9 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4 15.4 5.7 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 18.3 5.7 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.7 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 24.4 44.1 21.1 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 O F 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 33-35 >35 Tổng 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 33-35 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.3 16.1 10.8 2.2 0.0 33.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.8 15.9 15.8 2.5 0.0 38.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.8 9.7 1.6 0.0 18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 10.9 43.2 38.4 6.8 0.0 100 WR F O F 13-15 15-17 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 Tổng 13-15 15-17 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.4 3.2 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.5 6.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.0 0.0 1.8 6.8 15.1 7.9 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.6 10.8 11.1 4.7 3.6 1.1 0.0 35.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.9 3.6 1.4 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 5.4 16.5 34.8 21.5 10.4 7.9 3.6 0.0 100 O F 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 33-35 >35 Tổng 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 33-35 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 2.0 3.4 0.4 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 9.3 17.4 2.5 0.0 33.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 10.9 19.5 5.0 0.0 38.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.4 9.5 3.6 0.0 18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 28.0 50.0 11.5 0.0 100 1, N2 Tháng 217 Tháng 434 N2 Reg CM N2 O F 13-15 15-17 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 Tổng 13-15 15-17 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.9 5.1 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.8 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 5.5 4.6 3.2 3.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 18.9 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.5 8.3 10.1 7.4 3.2 0.0 0.0 36.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.3 5.5 3.7 4.6 0.0 0.0 18.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.4 2.8 1.4 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.0 0.0 5.1 24.9 19.4 21.2 18.9 10.6 0.0 0.0 100 O F 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 33-35 >35 Tổng 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 33-35 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.8 6.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 9.2 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 8.1 11.1 5.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.7 0.0 0.0 4.6 10.1 7.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 4.8 4.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 20.3 44.5 33.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 WR F O F 13-15 15-17 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 Tổng 13-15 15-17 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 1.4 2.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 0.5 0.5 3.7 6.9 4.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.9 9.3 10.6 6.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 37.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.3 7.4 4.6 1.4 0.0 0.0 18.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.9 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.0 1.9 10.6 17.6 21.8 27.3 14.4 6.5 0.0 0.0 100 O F 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 33-35 >35 Tổng 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 33-35 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 6.5 5.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.1 3.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 1.8 12.7 6.2 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.7 0.0 0.0 1.6 8.8 3.9 8.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.0 0.2 6.9 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 18.4 41.2 14.3 24.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 1, N3 Tháng 124 Tháng 247 N3 Re g CM N3 O F 13-15 15-17 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 Tổng 13-15 15-17 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 6.5 4.0 0.0 0.0 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 29.8 24.2 8.1 0.0 69.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 5.6 5.6 0.8 0.0 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1 44.4 34.7 8.9 0.0 100 O F 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 33-35 >35 Tổng 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 33-35 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 21.4 2.0 0.0 0.0 35.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 35.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 50.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.3 64.5 3.2 0.0 0.0 100 WRF O F 13-15 15-17 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 Tổng 13-15 15-17 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.8 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 4.0 6.5 0.8 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.9 50.0 2.4 69.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 10.5 0.8 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 23.4 70.2 4.8 100 O F 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 33-35 >35 Tổng 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25 25-27 27-29 29-31 31-33 33-35 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 33.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 35.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 47.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 50.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 94.4 2.4 0.0 0.0 100 1, Tháng 186 Tháng 372 B1 O F 5- 9- 11 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 Tổng O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng B1 Re g CM 5- 9- 11 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.2 3.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 4.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.7 3.3 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 13.0 17- 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.8 4.3 2.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 13.6 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.7 2.7 4.3 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.3 3.0 2.2 1.1 0.8 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 4.8 7.0 4.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 21.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 8.9 8.9 6.2 3.0 0.3 0.0 31.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 5.9 7.0 4.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 20.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.4 1.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.2 4.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 4.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.0 0.0 4.9 18.5 28.3 28.8 15.2 3.8 0.5 0.0 100 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2 25.0 32.0 21.8 9.4 1.6 0.0 100 B1 O F 9- 11 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 Tổng O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng WRF 9- 11 0.0 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 Tổng 0.0 2.2 3.8 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9 2.2 14.7 28.8 33.7 15.8 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.9 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.2 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1, Tháng 310 Tháng 620 O F 5- 9- 11 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 Tổng O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng B2 5- 9- 11 11- 13 13- 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.9 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.2 1.9 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 10.4 8.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 23.3 17- 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 Re g CM 15- 17 17- 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 8.4 6.5 2.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 20.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.9 2.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 12.6 19- 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 2.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.7 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.5 1.6 0.3 1.9 0.8 0.0 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 2.4 1.3 0.3 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4 3.1 1.0 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 7.6 7.3 2.9 0.2 19.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 38.5 30.4 17.2 3.2 2.3 0.0 100 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 8.5 9.2 3.4 0.6 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.4 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.3 11.3 31.0 36.3 13.2 1.9 100 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 7.9 9.5 3.7 0.8 24.4 B3 Tháng 930 O F 5- 9- 11 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 Tổng O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 3.4 4.5 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 4.3 4.5 3.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 5.8 7.3 8.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 23.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 6.2 4.1 1.7 0.9 0.0 18.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.5 2.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.4 3.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.7 2.4 1.9 1.7 0.0 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.3 1.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.7 13.3 6.7 0.2 23.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.8 18.0 9.9 1.1 34.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 10.2 9.7 1.0 25.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 11.8 7.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 21.5 0.5 1.1 2.7 3.8 3.8 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 16.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.5 0.5 1.1 3.3 3.8 4.9 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 11.8 7.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 20.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.5 25.2 31.6 26.5 7.3 2.8 0.0 100 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 6.0 1.6 0.2 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 17.1 51.3 28.8 2.5 100 0.5 1.6 2.7 3.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.9 3.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 11.0 5- B2 9- 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.0 1.3 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.0 5.2 O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.3 4.5 WRF 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 3.6 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.0 8.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.9 8.4 7.4 1.3 1.3 0.0 23.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.8 1.3 5.8 O F 9- 11 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 Tổng O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 11.6 53.8 32.3 1.9 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.5 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.9 7.4 4.5 2.9 0.0 20.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.1 1.5 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 2.9 5.2 1.6 1.6 0.0 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 5.5 8.5 3.7 19.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.3 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.4 7.1 9.2 3.7 24.0 B3 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 Tổng 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.9 2.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 2.3 1.6 0.6 1.3 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.5 6.9 8.4 4.8 24.4 23- 25 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.0 0.3 1.6 7.4 14.6 27.5 28.8 11.7 8.1 0.0 100 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.9 1.9 0.2 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.9 6.5 10.5 25.8 36.0 16.9 100 B3 9- 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 1.6 2.2 6.0 2.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0 < =5 Re g CM 5- 17- 19 0.5 1.1 3.8 2.7 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 O F 35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 9.5 3.2 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.7 8.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 2.8 2.8 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 2.2 3.9 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 13.4 8.6 23.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.8 20.6 9.1 34.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.4 13.9 6.3 25.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.3 5.1 1.5 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 15.5 55.7 27.6 100 1, B4 Tháng 403 Tháng 806 O F 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 Tổng O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng B4 Re g CM B4 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.5 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 0.0 1.5 3.0 5.5 1.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.7 0.0 0.5 4.5 6.7 5.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.5 0.0 0.5 5.5 8.2 5.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.2 17- 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 4.0 2.5 1.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 5.5 4.2 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.2 3.2 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.5 0.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.2 4.0 4.1 0.6 0.0 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.7 4.6 7.7 5.6 2.7 0.0 23.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.6 10.4 7.6 5.6 0.0 29.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 3.2 18.5 36.9 25.4 11.2 4.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 100 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.5 12.9 6.0 2.0 0.0 28.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 9.2 18.7 35.6 24.8 11.0 0.0 100 O F 9- 11 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 Tổng O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng WRF 9- 11 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.8 1.0 5.8 9.5 15.5 26.1 28.6 12.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 100 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1, N1 Tháng 279 Tháng 558 O F 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 Tổng O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng 15- 17 17- 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17- 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.2 2.9 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4 15.4 5.7 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 18.3 5.7 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.7 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.3 16.1 10.8 2.2 0.0 33.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.8 15.9 15.8 2.5 0.0 38.2 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 24.4 44.1 21.1 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.8 9.7 1.6 0.0 18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 10.9 43.2 38.4 6.8 0.0 100 O F 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 Tổng N2 Tháng 434 O F 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 Tổng O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng 15- 17 17- 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 17- 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 5.1 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.8 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 5.5 4.6 3.2 3.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 18.9 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.5 8.3 10.1 7.4 3.2 0.0 0.0 36.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.3 5.5 3.7 4.6 0.0 0.0 18.4 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.8 6.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 9.2 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 8.1 11.1 5.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.7 0.0 0.0 4.6 10.1 7.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 4.8 4.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.9 4.5 2.9 1.4 0.0 12.4 0.0 1.0 1.5 2.5 2.8 4.3 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.8 9.6 6.7 2.9 0.0 23.6 15- 17 17- 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17- 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.4 2.8 1.4 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.0 0.0 5.1 24.9 19.4 21.2 18.9 10.6 0.0 0.0 100 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 20.3 44.5 33.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 O F 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 Tổng O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.5 3.3 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.1 15.3 9.6 1.6 0.0 29.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.2 14.5 8.9 0.4 0.0 28.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 15.6 44.8 29.3 6.7 0.0 100 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.3 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.4 11.5 13.3 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.9 6.1 14.0 7.9 3.9 0.0 0.0 35.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.2 5.4 0.4 0.0 10.0 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 2.9 2.7 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 15.2 13.6 0.0 0.0 33.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 14.9 18.8 1.6 0.0 38.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.4 4.7 14.0 24.4 31.2 13.6 11.5 0.4 0.0 100 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.6 10.8 1.1 0.0 18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 39.8 46.1 2.7 0.0 100 N2 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 11.3 N2 Re g CM 13- 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.3 2.0 6.5 6.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.3 WRF 13- 15 1, Tháng 217 0.0 0.5 1.5 4.0 4.8 7.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.5 N1 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.3 3.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8 N1 Re g CM 13- 15 WRF 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 3.2 4.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 4.1 5.1 4.6 1.8 1.4 0.0 0.0 18.9 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.7 8.8 12.9 8.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 36.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.3 6.5 6.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 18.4 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.5 3.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.5 6.2 4.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 0.0 0.0 2.3 11.1 3.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 0.9 16.1 3.5 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.7 0.0 0.0 0.9 9.7 4.8 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 0.7 8.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.8 1.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.0 1.4 9.2 18.9 19.4 28.1 18.9 4.1 0.0 0.0 100 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 1.2 16.1 44.2 13.4 24.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 (bên 1, N3 Tháng 124 Tháng 247 O F 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 Tổng O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng N3 Re g CM 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N3 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 6.5 4.0 0.0 0.0 12.9 29- 31 31- 33 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 21.4 2.0 0.0 0.0 35.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 35.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 50.4 29- 31 31- 33 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 29.8 24.2 8.1 0.0 69.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 5.6 5.6 0.8 0.0 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1 44.4 34.7 8.9 0.0 100 33- 35 >35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.3 64.5 3.2 0.0 0.0 100 O F 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 Tổng O F 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 31- 33 33- 35 >35 Tổng WRF 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tháng 372 < =5 5- 9- 11 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 Tổng 1.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 3.8 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 8.1 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 14.5 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.4 O 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 F 11- 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13- 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15- 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 17- 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 19- 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 21- 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 23- 25 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25- 27 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27- 29 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29- 31 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7 17.7 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.5 7.5 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.0 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.3 15.0 17.7 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.6 39.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 24.4 68.9 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 B1 O F 35 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 92.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 100 < =5 5- 9- 11 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 Tổng 0.5 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 7.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 19.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.5 23.2 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.9 19.5 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.6 8.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 O 11- 13 13- 15 15- 17 17- 19 19- 21 21- 23 23- 25 25- 27 27- 29 29- 31 F 11- 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13- 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15- 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 3.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 17- 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 15.1 26.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 19- 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 14.0 17.7 2.4 0.0 0.0 21- 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 4.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 23- 25 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25- 27 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27- 29 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29- 31 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tổng 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5 36.6 48.7 4.3 0.0 0.0 89.2 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 Tổng 0.0 0.0 7.0 43.3 38.4 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 B2 RegCM 4.2 11.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.8 0.0 4.0 WRF 1, B2 Tháng O 310 F [...]... FRANCE MPI và UKMO [57] Tuy n i n k n p i m n t t i mi n p p ép li ns n nào n t Int rn t một số mới s n n ok ậu m k p mi n p p mi n p một số m t y t uộ vào i u ki n kin t quố n m un n Một số m n p i n l i p i tr p t p n m i Do i mà mỗi trun t m ok n us n u 1.1.3 Các mô hình dự báo khí hậu a Mô hình dự báo khí hậu toàn cầu M t n t n k u GCM (Global Climate Mo ls n n m 1922 ởi Ri p n t ậu toàn p r son... muốn t ok ậu m o i u qu i k 1.3 Đ n n i n vi n n t o nm ok n i n u n ok ậu k u v ậu vi n một số m n k i ĩa của việc đ o l ậu k u v sản phẩm dự báo 18 tl n cho Vi t N m n m n n sản phẩm dự báo 1.3.1 Mục đ c v ý un n t n tài “Đ n o Vi t N m” T uật n n t o qui tắ một t ã i u là n Đ n i là một k o n min một t i t lập một s t ật nl tn i n x o n o với vi o l ờn m qu n trắ li n qu n ộ “tốt” o là “ o” t o V... o là n n i n o t ời ti t y i l n CHƯƠNG 2 PHƯƠNG PHÁP, MÔ HÌNH VÀ SỐ LIỆU p 2.1 P C n p pđ n p p i o tron k t i m p á dự báo mùa o n n n qu n i ot i n li n t n p p số t n i n số t p n oàn i ut P i tr li n t n n p p t n i t ộ k o - qu n trắ với tun p số li u oàn một i n li n t t m ME MAE MSE RMSE ời t t ờn n p n p p i s In x n số PC y H Hit R t số TS T r t i m h á t i i m o o FORECAST Tr p i tr qu n... s i số Gi tr n i ) s i số N MAE n m o trun k ớp với qu n ộ tin ậy o n ) n là trun s i số k n là n n y i tr n m x p ( o là trun ∑( S i số m là | n x +∞ N u MAE =  S i số s i số n tuy t ối số o ộ r xu S i số trun s i số Gi tr n qu n trắ r ∑| k n ) o  S i số trun Là ( n – tổn số l n qu n trắ n là n k ̅ ̅ ) o O - qu n trắ trung bình là (-∞ +∞ ME n qu n trắ n s i số M n Error :F– số o ộ l n i m kĩ n n... nt KHÔNG xu t i n :D o n i nt n KHÔNG xu t i n + : Số tr ờn p qu n trắ i nt n b+d : Số tr ờn p qu n trắ i nt n k n xu t i n + : Số tr ờn p o i nt n xu t i n + : Số tr ờn p ok n i nt n: Tổn số l n Một số số  Độ n x n i xu t i n n xu t i n o op t 24 n qu n n ẫu n i n n ́ ̣  C C ̀ ̣ ̉ số F I C ́ ̀ ̣ p i ( ) ( ) m r m ộp số o CÓ tổn số qu n trắ CÓ ộ n số POD X POD i u là x k ớp i n ) ( ) n mà n Tổn i... ép oàn n qu n t n k n n y ời t t s i số RMSE àn ổn s n qu n o và tập i tr qu n trắ H số t t ờn o số tr N n o ) o H số t mt n và t n n n MAE RMSE k √∑ n t n s i số lớn RMSE lu n lớn ∑ lớn t ( il m n MAE s i số m  H số t i tr ) n i k t qu n này i u t MSE r t n y p ẩm m n là một tron n o vi il ờn i n qu n àn ẽ H số t l i số t qu n trắ và ộn i n ờn n qu n n qu n o H số i qui N D n op m n qui v ki u tr... o p số li u p lý t ởn là ộ và t o với tr p t n tin v s i số ộ l i m n m n oài qu x i t lớn li n qu n  P ộ lớn n n p p s i số qu n tr n  S i số trun o s i và i n n là n n r xu S i số trun o oàn o k ốn ớn trun o lớn n n ộ lớn tron k o n trắ MAE t số này lớn t n ớn s i số mà ờn k t n p là ộ lớn t là m p với ME n n trun n p n trun o ộ lớn tr n số àn lớn t i n t y on s i số ME = 0 mô n ộ lớn s i số Gi... tin ậy Tuy nhiên, với một số y u tố và một số k u v n i t ới t t m p o n l n m nn i t ộl i p 21 m và n i t ộ n GCM m p s i số t ốn m p n t i n t p so với t 9 n k L n t ở u t k uv Đ n là lớn tron t t m n so với k uv tron n m S i số l k n ri n lẻ nm p n Hi n n y m n GCM k n n t n s ối l u [6] Ngoài ra, t m số n i n và on n ộ p n i i và ời vào m n n và n 1 4oC N m Một số n 6-7oC s i số l n tri n t n qu... y T n Đối với n i t ộ s i số p ổ i n là 2 5oC T y T n m n m n ut i ti n m i n oàn t i n và p t mo ul qu tr n n n ã u i n ổi k ộn l t mt và ộn t ậu tron t n l i n n t àn n n ối với k ậu qui m b Mô hình dự báo khí hậu khu vực M tron vi k uv lớn m n k m p n k n i m GCM ậu t n p ời tron k u v t n t m ộp n i it p 25 i u ki n n u ã t p n này ậu k u v qui m ộn l m n p p “l n ép” một i u t o r s n p ẩm v RCM... POFD n y sai C số này i u t POFD t ờn  C s m với tỷ l n o n 1 và m o k ốn n là oàn ) o với k n p i ối với o o k ốn tr n tổn số qu n trắ KHÔNG C n với số số POD số kĩ n n HSS H i k Skill S or HSS là một trong nh ng ộ o kỹ n ng phổ bi n ối với d báo pha HSS ánh giá ( o) c ph n c i thi n v t trên d báo ngẫu nhiên và ó th c so sánh trên các tập mẫu khác nhau * * ( + + )( ) ( )( ) Tron :  C số kĩ n n KSS ... ĐẠI HỌC KHOA HỌC TỰ NHIÊN - T T ĐÁNH GIÁ KHẢ NĂNG DỰ BÁO HẠN MÙA CỦA MỘT SỐ MÔ HÌNH KHÍ HẬU KHU VỰC CHO VIỆT NAM Chuyên ngành: K t n k ậu Mã số: 61.44.87 LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KHOA HỌC NGƯỜI... số s n n ok ậu m k p mi n p p mi n p số m t y t uộ vào i u ki n kin t quố n m un n Một số m n p i n l i p i tr p t p n m i Do i mà trun t m ok n us n u 1.1.3 Các mô hình dự báo khí hậu a Mô hình. .. n n n ã u i n ổi k ộn l t mt ộn t ậu tron t n l i n n t àn n n ối với k ậu qui m b Mô hình dự báo khí hậu khu vực M tron vi k uv lớn m n k m p n k n i m GCM ậu t n p ời tron k u v t n t m ộp n