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MACROECONOMICS N Gregory Mankiw PowerPoint® Slides by Ron Cronovich CHAPTER The Science of Macroeconomics © 2010 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved In this chapter, you will learn: about the issues macroeconomists study the tools macroeconomists use some important concepts in macroeconomic analysis SEVENTH EDITION 2/17/2016 Important issues in macroeconomics Macroeconomics, the study of the economy as a whole, addresses many topical issues, e.g.: What causes recessions? What is “government stimulus” and why might it help? How can problems in the housing market spread to the rest of the economy? What is the government budget deficit? How does it affect workers, consumers, businesses, and taxpayers? CHAPTER The Science of Macroeconomics Important issues in macroeconomics Macroeconomics, the study of the economy as a whole, addresses many topical issues, e.g.: Why does the cost of living keep rising? Why are so many countries poor? What policies might help them grow out of poverty? What is the trade deficit? How does it affect the country’s well-being? CHAPTER The Science of Macroeconomics 2/17/2016 U.S Real GDP per capita U.S Unemployment Rate (2000 dollars) (% of labor force) 9/11/2001 First oil price shock long-run upward trend… Great Depression Second oil price shock World War II U.S Inflation Rate Why learn macroeconomics? (% per year) The macroeconomy affects society’s well-being percent of labor force Social problems like homelessness, domestic violence, crime, and Property crimes (right scale) poverty are linked to the economy For example… Unemployment (left scale) crimes per 100,000 population U.S Unemployment and Property Crime Rates 2/17/2016 Why learn macroeconomics? Economic models The macroeconomy affects your well-being change from 12 mos earlier 3 -1 -3 -1 -5 -2 -3 1965 -7 1970 1975 unemployment rate 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 inflation-adjusted mean wage (right scale) …are simplified versions of a more complex reality percent change from 12 mos earlier In most years, wage growth falls when unemployment is rising irrelevant details are stripped away …are used to show relationships between variables explain the economy’s behavior devise policies to improve economic performance CHAPTER The Science of Macroeconomics Why learn macroeconomics? Example of a model: The macroeconomy affects election outcomes Supply & demand for new cars Unemployment & inflation in election years year U rate inflation rate elec outcome 1976 7.7% 5.8% 1980 7.1% 13.5% Reagan (R) 1984 7.5% 4.3% Reagan (R) 1988 5.5% 4.1% Bush I (R) 1992 7.5% 3.0% Clinton (D) 1996 5.4% 3.3% Clinton (D) 2000 4.0% 3.4% Bush II (R) 2004 5.5% 3.3% Bush II (R) 2008 7.2% 3.8% Obama (D) Carter (D) 10 shows how various events affect price and quantity of cars assumes the market is competitive: each buyer and seller is too small to affect the market price Variables Qd = quantity of cars that buyers demand Qs = quantity that producers supply P = price of new cars Y = aggregate income Ps = price of steel (an input) CHAPTER The Science of Macroeconomics 11 2/17/2016 The demand for cars The market for cars: Demand demand equation: Q d = D (P,Y ) demand equation: shows that the quantity of cars consumers demand is related to the price of cars and aggregate income Q d = D (P,Y ) P Price of cars The demand curve shows the relationship between quantity demanded and price, other things equal CHAPTER The Science of Macroeconomics 12 Digression: functional notation The Science of Macroeconomics supply equation: Qs 14 = S (P,PS ) P Price of cars S = D (P,Y ) A specific functional form shows the precise quantitative relationship A list of the The supply curve shows the relationship between quantity supplied and price, other things equal Example: variables d that affect D (P,Y ) = 60Q – 10P + 2Y CHAPTER Q Quantity of cars The market for cars: Supply General functional notation shows only that the variables are related Qd CHAPTER D The Science of Macroeconomics 13 CHAPTER The Science of Macroeconomics D Q Quantity of cars 15 2/17/2016 The market for cars: Equilibrium The effects of a steel price increase supply equation: P Price of cars S The Science of Macroeconomics …which increases the market price and reduces the quantity 16 P Price of cars S The Science of Macroeconomics D1 D2 Q In the model of supply & demand for cars, Quantity of cars endogenous: P, Qd, Qs exogenous: CHAPTER The Science of Macroeconomics 18 The values of exogenous variables are determined outside the model: the model takes their values & behavior as given P1 Q1 Q2 Q Quantity of cars The values of endogenous variables are determined in the model P2 …which increases the equilibrium price and quantity CHAPTER Q2 Q1 Endogenous vs exogenous variables The effects of an increase in income An increase in income increases the quantity of cars consumers demand at each price… P2 P1 D Quantity of cars equilibrium quantity Q d = D (P,Y ) S1 D Q demand equation: S2 Price of cars An increase in Ps reduces the quantity of cars producers supply at each price… equilibrium price CHAPTER P Q s = S (P,PS ) 17 CHAPTER Y, P s The Science of Macroeconomics 19 2/17/2016 NOW YOU TRY: The use of multiple models Supply and Demand So we will learn different models for studying different issues (e.g., unemployment, inflation, long-run growth) Write down demand and supply equations for wireless phones; include two exogenous variables in each equation For each new model, you should keep track of its assumptions which variables are endogenous, which are exogenous the questions it can help us understand, those it cannot Draw a supply-demand graph for wireless phones Use your graph to show how a change in one of your exogenous variables affects the model’s endogenous variables CHAPTER The use of multiple models The Science of Macroeconomics Prices: flexible vs sticky No one model can address all the issues we care about Market clearing: An assumption that prices are flexible, adjust to equate supply and demand E.g., our supply-demand model of the car market… In the short run, many prices are sticky – adjust sluggishly in response to changes in supply or demand For example: many labor contracts fix the nominal wage for a year or longer many magazine publishers change prices only once every 3-4 years can tell us how a fall in aggregate income affects price & quantity of cars cannot tell us why aggregate income falls CHAPTER The Science of Macroeconomics 22 21 CHAPTER The Science of Macroeconomics 23 2/17/2016 Prices: flexible vs sticky Outline of this book: The economy’s behavior depends partly on whether prices are sticky or flexible: If prices sticky (short run), demand may not equal supply, which explains: Policy debates (Chaps 15-16) Should the government try to smooth business cycle fluctuations? Is the government’s debt a problem? unemployment (excess supply of labor) Microeconomic foundations (Chaps 17-19) Insights from looking at the behavior of consumers, firms, and other issues from a microeconomic perspective why firms cannot always sell all the goods they produce If prices flexible (long run), markets clear and economy behaves very differently CHAPTER The Science of Macroeconomics 24 Outline of this book: 26 Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole, including growth in incomes changes in the overall level of prices the unemployment rate Classical Theory (Chaps 3-6) How the economy works in the long run, when prices are flexible Growth Theory (Chaps 7-8) The standard of living and its growth rate over the very long run Macroeconomists attempt to explain the economy and to devise policies to improve its performance Business Cycle Theory (Chaps 9-14) How the economy works in the short run, when prices are sticky The Science of Macroeconomics The Science of Macroeconomics Chapter Summary Introductory material (Chaps & 2) CHAPTER CHAPTER 25 2/17/2016 Chapter Summary Economists use different models to examine different issues Models with flexible prices describe the economy in the long run; models with sticky prices describe the economy in the short run Macroeconomic events and performance arise from many microeconomic transactions, so macroeconomics uses many of the tools of microeconomics