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tác động của kiều hối, xuất khẩu lao động lên công tác xóa đói giảm nghèo ở Ấn độ, sử dụng mô hình kinh tế lượng để phân tích. Remittances have become significant private financial resources for households in countries of origin of migration although they cannot be considered as a substitude of foreign direct investment (FDI), official development assistance (ODA), debt relief or other public sources of finance development. There has been a 15fold increase in remittances to developing countries since 1988 with remittances increasing from 20 billion to 328 billion in 2007. This makes it important to continue to analyse the potential of migrants remittances to contribute to development. Though there is a growing literature on the impact of remittances on development, very few studies have empirically estimated the impact of remittances on development in general, and on poverty in particular, in developing countries. To fill this gap in the literature, this study undertakes impact analysis of remittances on poverty in the developing countries at three levels.
UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF REMITTANCES ON POVERTY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES United nations ConferenCe on trade and development Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes New York and Geneva, 2011 Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes ii note t s U n s U n m U n m a UnCtad s p n C s t U i d n s U i UNCTAD/DITC/TNCD/2010/8 Copyright © United Nations, 2011 All rights reserved Printed in Switzerland d aC no led ements iii ac no leDgements t d i m s m C C s d i s t o a r C UnCtad U p i d e d o d p UnCtad i i s C p t e a UnCtad i p o p s Contents v contents n a INTRODUCTION 2 REMITTANCES AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: REVIEW OF LITERATURE l l l l l l r r r r r r d dp C p i f e e TRENDS IN MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES t t t m r m i t t m i r i r IMPACT OF REMITTANCES ON POVERTY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 17 IMPACT OF REMITTANCES ON POVERTY IN INDIA 23 t C r C p i t IMPACT OF REMITTANCES ON POVERTY IN KERALA 27 C r p r i CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 30 appenDI RefeRences Tables t t m i e s i m C C Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes vi t a e d d r r r o s a m d i l r t C o C i d i s i i l t p t p o nri d r s s l r l r s e d v s e d v C l r s d v r t p r p t r s dp e a d dp r s s i e p m d v dp i C r r v p C p r r i FIGURes t r t dp i aPPeNDIX Tables s adf s s p p adf p i p t i Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes IntRoDuctIon r fdi oda t t t t Firstly, a dp Secondly, i i Thirdly, i t i s i t i i f dp i dp i U introdUCtion p p p ppp p p p ppp t t i i i t t i e i m o i d a nri l t U i C t s d i d i t i t i i e i r i i t i i s i t i a i impaCt of remittanCes on povert in erala 27 s t i fCf t i Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In eRala i i i t t t t a i m i n s d p nsdp C i i Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes 28 Figure Trends in emigrants and remittances in Kerala: 1988-89 to 2008-09 Total Emigrants ( 000) Total Remittances (Million Dollar) 10000.0 9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 6000.0 5000.0 4000.0 3000.0 2000.0 1000.0 20 08 -09 20 06 -07 20 04 -05 20 02 -03 20 00 -01 19 98 -99 19 96 -97 19 94 -95 19 92 -93 19 90 -91 19 88 -89 0.0 Source: Total emigrants till 2002 is taken from “Gulf Revisited Sept 2004”, CDS working paper No 363 and the year after that is derived by adding the number of emigrants clearance data given by Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs r t d nsdp a nsdp t t 6.1 Causality between remittances and poverty-related indicators in Kerala l impaCt of remittanCes on povert in erala U C 29 t a t t t Table 17 Pair wise Granger Causality between the remittances and some poverty related indicators in Kerala Direction of causality/ null hypothesis Number of lags Observations (No of years) F- Value significance Remittance does not Granger Causes Per capita NSDP 14 27.883 Sign at 5% Reject Per capita NSDP Does not Granger Cause Remittances 14 7.101 Not Sign Do Not Reject Remittance does not Granger Causes GFCF 13 4.669 Sign at 5% Reject GFCF does not Granger Causes Remittances 13 0.903 Not Sign Do not Reject Decision Source: UNCTAD India Project estimation from the dataset The results show that remittances Granger cause per capita income in the state t t i U fCf remittances Granger cause GFCF fCf t t s f s t Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes 30 e conclusIons anD polIcy RecommenDatIons t r i i a m r s f a t dp p p a a r p s dp i ConClUsions and poliC reCommendations 31 f i t a dp dp f dp o dp dp i dp C t t t f C t t t t e t e s t t Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes 32 m d m m i m p r t n a a d a i s ConClUsions and poliC reCommendations 33 t i d C s i p s m t m a e a f t i UnCtad a a Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes 34 appenDI U t dp fCf f d f adf p p pp t adf t adf t pp adf δxt = a0 +b0xt-1 + ∑ki=1 C0 δxt-1 + wt x δ w t appendix stationary test of the following variables: aDF test and Phillips Perron (Kerala) aug Dickey Fuller Test Variables Per Capita NSDP Remittances t-statistics aDF test statistics -4.522*** 1% level -3.887 5% level -3.052 10% level -2.667 aDF test statistics -4.299** 1% level -4.533 5% level -3.674 Per capita NSDP was not stationary at level and first difference It is observed stationary at second difference Remittances were found stationary at level -3.277 10% level Phillips Perron Test Per capita NSDP Remarks Phil P statistics -18.567*** 1% level -3.959 5% level -3.081 10% level -2.681 Per capita NSDP was not stationary at level and first difference It is observed stationary at second difference appendi 35 appendix stationary test of the following variables: aDF test (all India) Variables aug Dickey Fuller Test Remarks t-statistics Remittances aDF test tatistics -8.2695*** 1% level -4.3561 5% level -3.595 10 % level GDP GFCF aDF test tatistics -3.3917* 1% level -4.324 5% level -3.5806 10 % level -3.2253 aDF test tatistics -6.3119*** 1% level -4.3561 5% level Disposable Income Pvt final consumption exp -3.2335 -3.595 10 % level -3.2335 aDF test tatistics -5.8736*** 1% level -4.3743 5% level -3.6032 10 % level -3.2381 aDF test tatistics -4.4596*** 1% level -4.3393 5% level -3.5875 FDI was not stationary at level, first difference It is observed stationary at second difference GDP was not stationary at level, but observed stationary at first difference GFCF was not stationary at level, first difference It is observed stationary at second difference Disposable income was not stationary at level, first difference It is observed stationary at second difference Disposable income was not stationary at level but it found stationary at first difference -3.2292 Note: * and *** represent the significance level at 10 and percentage level i i t dp t adf dp pp t p p 36 Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes appendix stationary test of the following variables: Phillips- Perron Test (all India) Phillips-Perron Variables Remittances Phil-Perron test stat -8.8452*** 1% level -4.3561 5% level -3.595 10 % level GFCF Disposable Income Pvt final consumption exp FDI was not stationary at level, first difference It is observed stationary at second difference -3.2335 Phil-Perron test stat GDP Remarks t-statistics -3.37* GDP was not stationary at level, but observed stationary at first difference 1% level -4.324 5% level -3.5806 10 % level -3.2253 Phil-Perron test stat -6.6006*** 1% level -4.3561 GFCF was not stationary at level, first difference 5% level -3.595 It is observed stationary at second difference 10 % level -3.2335 Phil-Perron test stat -4.5374*** 1% level -4.3393 5% level -3.5875 10 % level -3.2292 Phil-Perron test stat -4.4997*** 1% level -4.3393 5% level -3.5875 10 % level -3.2292 Disposable Income was not stationary at level but it found stationary at first difference Disposable Income was not stationary at level but it found stationary at first difference Note: * and *** represent the significance level at 10 and percentage 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NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF REMITTANCES ON POVERTY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES