A GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF AIR HUBS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA HAN SONGGUANG (B Soc Sci (Hons.)), NUS A THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SOCIAL SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE 2007 A Geographical Analysis of Air Hubs in Southeast Asia ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS It seemed like not long ago when I started out on my undergraduate degree at the National University of Singapore and here I am at the conclusion of my formal education The decision to pursue this Masters degree was not a straightforward and simple one Many sacrifices had to be made as a result but I am glad to have truly enjoyed and benefited from this fulfilling journey This thesis, in many ways, is the culmination of my academic journey, one fraught with challenges but also laden with rewards It also marks the start of a new chapter of my life where I leave the comfortable and sheltered confines of the university into the “outside world” and my future pursuit of a career in education I would like to express my heartfelt thanks and gratitude to the following people, without whom this thesis would not have been possible: I am foremost indebted to Associate Professor K Raguraman who first inspired me in the wonderful field of transport geography from the undergraduate modules I did under him His endearing self, intellectual guidance, critical comments and helpful suggestions have been central to the completion of this thesis A special word of thanks to you Ragu, my supervisor, mentor, inspiration and friend All faculty members at the Department of Geography, NUS who have taught me (hopefully well enough!) during my undergraduate and postgraduate days in the university and enabled me to see the magic behind the discipline that is Geography In particular, Professor Henry Yeung, Associate Professors Victor Savage, Shirlena Huang, Peggy Teo, Tim Bunnell, TC Chang, David Higgitt, Wong Poh Poh and Drs Carl Grundy-Warr, Pow Choon Piew and Noorashikin Abdul Rahman for their guidance, faith and belief in me all these years Dr Paul Barter from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, NUS, whom I had learnt a lot about transport issues, both as an undergraduate and as a postgraduate student The administrative staff at the Department, Lai Wa, Pauline, Sakinah, Mrs Chong, Mr Lee, Mr Yong, Mr Tow, Mrs Chee and Mrs Lim for their excellent administrative support and help Faculty and staff from the University Scholars Programme who have helped deepen my scholarship and broaden my horizons All my teachers from years gone by for teaching me the finer things in life and moulding me into what I am today My beloved fellow current and former graduate students Chih Yuan, Daryl, Seeta, Monica, Hanglu, Desmond, Gu Ming, Yunmei, Winston, May, Brian, Choon Hon and Seng Lee who have made these two years of postgraduate studies some of the most memorable in my life i A Geographical Analysis of Air Hubs in Southeast Asia The friends whom I have made (and still continue to cherish) from GeogSoc and the geography honours class Thank you for all the fantastic memories and continuing to be an important part of my life My dearest students (especially those from the Field Studies module), whom I have had the greatest pleasure teaching as a graduate teaching assistant in my time here at the NUS, for challenging me to new heights, both intellectually and pedagogically All my anonymous survey respondents who have taken time to the survey Especially to my friends who have helped me disseminate the online survey to their contacts Mr Gerald Ng, Air Transport Manager, Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore for granting me an interview despite his hectic schedule from which I derived plenty of rich information used in this thesis My two anonymous markers for their time in reading this thesis and their critical comments and insights My family for their support and encouragement through undergraduate and graduate schools And finally, my fiancé and soon-to-be wife, Shi’an, for her understanding and support throughout my candidature even though it meant a delay in my career and our marriage plans It is her love that I will cherish and take with me as we journey on the rest of our lives no longer as individuals but as a wedded couple Songguang August 2007 ii A Geographical Analysis of Air Hubs in Southeast Asia TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Acknowledgements i Table of Contents iii Summary vi List of Tables vii List of Figures ix List of Plates x CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 1.1 Preamble 1.2 Air Hubs and Geography 1.3 Aims, Objectives and Scope 1.4 Significance of Study 10 1.5 Methodology 11 1.6 Outline of Thesis 11 CHAPTER TWO: HUBBING – LITERATURE REVIEW AND KEY CONCEPTS 14 2.1 Introduction 14 2.2 Academic Writings on Air Hubs 14 2.3 Literature on the Geography of Air Hubs 16 2.4 Airports, Route Networks and the Global City Paradigm 20 2.5 The Network Focus in Air Transport 23 2.6 Hubbing and Hub Airports 25 2.6.1 Towards a Typology of Air Hubs 29 2.7 Hubbing – Benefits and Pitfalls 32 2.8 Regulation and Liberalization in the Industry 33 2.9 Chapter Summary 43 iii A Geographical Analysis of Air Hubs in Southeast Asia CHAPTER THREE: AIR HUB COMPETITION AND DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA 45 3.1 Introduction 45 3.2 The Nature of Air Hub Competition in Southeast Asia 49 3.3 The Developmental History and Overview of Selected Airports 53 3.3.1 Singapore Changi Airport 53 3.3.2 Kuala Lumpur International Airport 57 3.3.3 Bangkok Suvarnabhumi International Airport 61 3.4 Looking to the Future 64 3.5 Chapter Summary 67 CHAPTER FOUR: METHODOLODY FOR HUB ANALYSIS 69 4.1 Introduction 69 4.2 Data Source 70 4.3 Mapping Airport Networks 71 4.4 Network Matrix Analysis 73 4.5 Shimbel Index Analysis 74 4.6 Flight Frequency/Volume/Schedule Comparison 76 4.7 Connecting Passenger Numbers 77 4.8 Large Scale Quantitative Survey 77 4.9 In-depth Interviews 80 4.10 Chapter Summary 80 CHAPTER FIVE: FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS 82 5.1 Introduction 82 5.2 Network Analysis of Air Hubs in Southeast Asia 82 5.2.1 Spatial Networks of Air Hubs 82 5.2.2 The Regional Networks 83 5.2.3 The Global Networks 87 5.2.4 Network Matrix Analysis 93 5.2.5 Shimbel Index Analysis 94 5.3 Flight Frequencies, Volumes and Schedules 97 5.4 Incentives and Policies to Encourage Hub Development 102 iv A Geographical Analysis of Air Hubs in Southeast Asia 5.5 Air Hubs and National Carriers 102 5.6 The Impact of Low Cost Carriers 105 5.7 ASEAN and Open Skies 109 5.8 Chapter Summary 112 CHAPTER SIX: CASE STUDY – THE KANGAROO ROUTE 114 6.1 Introduction 114 6.2 Background 115 6.3 Intermediacy Analysis 123 6.4 The Current Situation 125 6.5 Supply Side Analysis – Airline Schedules 129 6.5.1 Frequencies and Volumes 138 6.6 Demand Side Analysis – Passenger Survey Findings 140 6.6.1 Airline Choice Factors 141 6.6.2 Airport Choice Factors 143 6.6.3 Kangaroo Route Scenario 145 6.6.4 Real Life Experiences at Hub Airports 148 6.7 Chapter Summary 150 CHAPTER SEVEN: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 151 7.1 Summary 151 7.2 Implications of Study & Future Research 152 7.3 Concluding Comments 156 LIST OF REFERENCES 158 v A Geographical Analysis of Air Hubs in Southeast Asia SUMMARY This research explores and examines the formation, development and the current role of airport hubs for civil aviation within the context of Southeast Asia The notion of “hub” is explained and the various measures by which hubs are defined are also critically analyzed The various processes that lead to or favour hub formation are also given some mention to draw linkages between the theoretical discussion and real world phenomena A brief overview of the developmental histories and trajectories of the major airports in the region is then provided to situate the research in its unique socio-economic and geopolitical context I explain why certain airlines and airports are more successful than others, and how hubbing is used to increase network coverage and reach The intricate linkages between airlines that use the sixth freedom rights and airports which situate themselves as hubs are examined by looking at the extent to which flag carriers contribute to airport hub formation I also examine the operations of selected airlines and airports and the pattern of air services through an analysis of spatial networks, establishing the degree of “hubness” of the airports examined Finally, this research uses the case study of the Australia-Europe air route (also commonly known as the Kangaroo Route) to illustrate the varying importance and significance of air hubs in Southeast Asia by drawing upon both quantitative and qualitative sources of data Key words: Airports, Air Hubs, Southeast Asia, Kangaroo Route, Spatial Analysis vi A Geographical Analysis of Air Hubs in Southeast Asia LIST OF TABLES Page 1.1 Main Commercial Passenger Aircraft 1935 – 2007 2.1 Analytical Research on Hub-and-Spoke Networks 19 2.2 Benefits and Disadvantages of Hubbing 33 2.3 Characteristics of Major Air Travel Markets 41 3.1 International Passenger Traffic for 12 months ending February 2007 48 3.2 Comparison of SIN, BKK and KUL 52 4.1 Sample Network Centrality Matrix 74 4.2 Sample Intraregional Shimbel Index 75 5.1 Regional Foci of the Three Hub Airports 92 5.2 Exclusive Destination cities for the Three Hub Airports 93 5.3 Network Centrality Matrix 93 5.4 Intraregional Shimbel Matrix 95 5.5 Interregional Shimbel Matrix 96 5.6 A Comparison of Key Statistics for the Three Airports 98 5.7 Example of Hubbing by Foreign Airlines 99 5.8a Route Intensity of Selected Destinations 99 5.8b Change in Route Intensity of Selected Destinations 101 5.9a A Comparison of the Main Hub Carriers 103 5.9b A Comparison of the Secondary Carriers at the Three Hubs 104 6.1 Distances on Key Kangaroo Route City-Pairs 116 6.2 Intermediacy Measures on the Kangaroo Route 124 6.3 International Passengers by Uplift/Discharge Country From/To Australia 125 6.4 Traffic on Board Passenger Movements between Australia and International Cities [selected cities on the Kangaroo Route] 126 6.5 Major Kangaroo Route Permutations 128 6.6a Qantas Flight Schedules on Kangaroo Route 130 6.6b BA Flight Schedules on Kangaroo Route 132 6.6c NZ Flight Schedules on Kangaroo Route 132 6.6d SIA Flight Schedules on Kangaroo Route 133 6.6e MAS Flight Schedules on Kangaroo Route 134 vii A Geographical Analysis of Air Hubs in Southeast Asia 6.6f THAI Flight Schedules on Kangaroo Route 135 6.6g Cathay Pacific Flight Schedules on Kangaroo Route 136 6.6h Emirates Flight Schedules on Kangaroo Route 137 6.7 Route Intensity (Sydney – London) 139 6.8 Weekly Maximum Seat Capacity by Airline 139 6.9a Airline Choice Factors 142 6.9b Airport Choice Factors 144 viii A Geographical Analysis of Air Hubs in Southeast Asia LIST OF FIGURES Page 1.1 The Transport System 2.1 Themes of Geographic Analysis in Air Transport 17 2.2 Hub and Spoke Networks 26 2.3 Airport Hubbing Level 27 2.4 The Nine Freedoms of Air 38 4.1 Sample Intraregional Network Map 72 5.1 Singapore Changi Airport (SIN) Intraregional Network Map 83 5.2 Kuala Lumpur (KUL) Intraregional Network Map 84 5.3 Bangkok (BKK) Intraregional Network Map 84 5.4 Intraregional Network Map of all Three Hub Airports 85 5.5 Singapore Changi Airport (SIN) Interregional Network Map 87 5.6 Kuala Lumpur KLIA (KUL) Interregional Network Map 88 5.7 Bangkok (BKK) Interregional Network Map 89 5.8 Interregional Network Map of all Three Hub Airports 91 6.1 Early Intercontinental Air Routes 115 6.2a Aircraft Range on LHR-SYD Route 117 6.2b Aircraft Range on SYD-LHR Route 117 6.3a Current Routes – Sydney to the UK 121 6.3b Current Routes – Melbourne to the UK 121 6.3c Current Routes – Perth to the UK 122 6.3d Current Routes – Brisbane to the UK 122 6.3e Current Routes – Auckland to the UK 123 6.3f Current Routes – Christchurch to the UK 123 6.4 International Passengers by Major Airlines 127 ix A Geographical Analysis of Air Hubs in Southeast Asia LIST OF REFERENCES Books Amin, A & 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Singapore Changi Airport, Kuala Lumpur International Airport, and Bangkok A Geographical Analysis of Air Hubs in Southeast Asia. .. trends to have impacted air transport today 33 A Geographical Analysis of Air Hubs in Southeast Asia A vast array of early works is available in the literature, predominantly in the 1960s and 1970s