GLOBAL COLLECTIVE ACTION: A STRUCTURAL PERSPECTIVE ON ENERGY & CLIMATE COOPERATION IFTIKHAR LODHI (MPP, NUS) A THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY LEE KUAN YEW SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE 2014 ii Table of Contents SUMMARY V LIST OF TABLES . VIII LIST OF FIGURES . IX LIST OF ACRONYMS . X 1. INTRODUCTION 2. 3. 4. 1.1. INTRODUCTION 1.2. 1.3. 1.4. 1.5. 1.6. BRINGING DOMESTIC POLITICS IN THE RESEARCH QUESTION 12 THE POLICY ISSUE . 13 THE THESIS . 21 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY . 27 1.7. THE ROADMAP . 35 2.1. 2.2. INTRODUCTION 36 THEORIES OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS AND COOPERATION . 38 2.3. GLOBALISATION AND NATIONAL RESPONSES 73 2.4. CONCLUSION 89 3.1 3.2 INTRODUCTION 91 THE EPISTEMOLOGICAL AND ONTOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS 93 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 THE RATIONAL ACTOR MODEL AND COLLECTIVE ACTION PROBLEM . 103 THE MODIFIED CONSTRAINED-CHOICE FRAMEWORK . 111 NATIONAL POLICY REGIMES AND POLICY CHANGE . 116 DEPENDENT VARIABLE: OPERATIONALIZING ENERGY POLICY 124 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 132 4.1. 4.2. INTRODUCTION 134 THE DEPENDENT VARIABLES . 138 1.1.1. THE PROBLEMATIC 1.6.1. 1.6.2. 1.6.3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY . 31 THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE . 31 EXPLANATORY VARIABLES . 33 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND NATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY: THE STATE OF THE ART 36 2.2.1. REALISM: POWER, INTERESTS, AND PERCEPTIONS . 39 2.2.2. LIBERALISM, THE BRITISH SCHOOL, AND CONSTRUCTIVISM: INSTITUTIONS, VALUES, AND NORMS . 46 2.2.3. INTERNATIONAL REGIMES & INSTITUTIONS 52 2.2.4. THE NEO-NEO CONSENSUS AND ITS PROBLEMS: INSTITUTIONS AND GLOBALISATION 66 2.3.1. GLOBALISATION AND THE RETREAT OF THE STATE: THE SECOND IMAGE REVERSED . 76 2.3.2. VARIETIES OF CAPITALISM: BRINGING THE STATE BACK IN 82 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY . 91 3.1.1. 3.1.2. 3.1.3. THE AGENCY 94 THE STRUCTURE AND THE CONTEXT 98 RECONCILING THE DIVIDE 101 DETERMINANTS OF ENERGY AND CLIMATE POLICY OUTCOMES 134 4.2.1. FUEL SUBSIDIES/TAXES . 140 iii 5. 4.2.2. 4.2.3. 4.2.4. ENERGY MIX . 147 ENERGY INTENSITY . 154 CARBON EMISSIONS . 157 4.3. EXPLANATORY VARIABLES 162 4.4. 4.5. 4.6. THE STATISTICAL MODEL 182 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS . 186 FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION 197 4.7. CONCLUSION 205 5.1. 5.2. 5.3. LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH . 218 THEORETICAL IMPLICATIONS . 220 POLICY IMPLICATIONS 222 4.3.1. GLOBALISATION . 163 4.3.2. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS 167 4.3.3. DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONS: REGIME TYPE, IDEOLOGY, VETO PLAYERS, AND BUREAUCRATIC QUALITY . 169 4.3.4. RELATIVE CAPABILITIES AND MARKET SIZE 177 4.3.5. SENSITIVITY AND VULNERABILITY (POWER IN THE ISSUE AREA) . 179 4.3.6. STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY . 180 4.6.1. THE CONVERGENCE DEBATE . 204 CONCLUDING REMARKS 215 REFERENCES 225 iv I caused mortals to cease foreseeing their doom, I caused blind hopes to dwell within their breast, In addition, I gave them fire, And from it, they shall learn many arts. --- Prometheus--- Summary Why does the level of international cooperation vary across countries and issue areas? How can we explain variances in energy and climate policy outcomes across countries? This thesis contends that domestic structural and political attributes like the level of globalisation, number of veto players, and quality of governing institutions explain a large part of variances in energy and climate policy outcomes across countries and by extension level of international cooperation. Using a large-N quantitative (N=60, T=20) research this thesis concludes that in the area of energy and climate policy the world overall is on a convergent path; a sort of marathon to the top. The pace of change, however, is extremely slow and may not be sufficient to avert a climate catastrophe. Nevertheless, states across the world are phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, diversifying national energy baskets, using energy more efficiently, and cutting down the growth rate of carbon emissions. However, these trends differ between the OECD and non-OECD countries, with the latter showing a lot more variance than the former - the United States remains an outlier. The higher quality of governing institutions, higher levels of globalisation, and membership in international environmental institutions, all have a favourable impact on energy and climate policy outcomes. The greater number of veto players, however, is negatively associated with these outcomes. Furthermore, contrary to the v traditional belief, democracy and party ideology have no significant explanatory power. The analysis and findings challenge the mainstream rationalist – neorealist and neoliberal institutionalist – theories of international cooperation or its lack thereof. The rationalists construe international collective action problem as states failing to cooperate because of the concerns for relative gains and/or fear of cheating. Both these schools offer international system level explanations and assume that states are rational unitary actors and hence domestic factors can be ignored. This thesis argues on the contrary that the unitary rational actor model underestimates the role of domestic structural and political factors in determining the level of cooperation as well as translating policy outputs into outcomes. This thesis problematizes the rationalist understanding of the issue of international cooperation in the context of energy and climate change. It defines global collective action problem as gaps between two or more states’ expectations of one another’s policy outcomes. Policy outcomes are determined by domestic structural and political factors. The gaps in expectations result from states’ respective internal structural and political attributes. International cooperation thus means reducing the gaps in both actual policy outcomes and expectations. International institutions play an important part in reducing the gap in expectations through developing consensus as to what is beneficial as a whole, what is the required pace of change, and what are the constraints faced by states. vi However, ignoring domestic factors may lead to incorrect inferences, as demonstrated in this thesis, domestic structural and political factors systematically explain the level of international cooperation (or a lack thereof) in the area of energy and climate change. vii List of Tables Table 1.1: Explanations of Policy Change and Energy Policy . 34 Table 3.1: Different Strategic Structures and Patterns of Interaction . 110 Table 3.2: A Standard Game of Cooperation 114 Table 3.3: Gasoline Prices and Tax/Subsidy (constant 2011 USD/ltr) . 146 Table 3.4: Top Six Energy Baskets (1990-2012) in mtoe (% share) 152 Table 3.5: Oil and Coal Share, Mean and Variance (percent of total energy consumption) 153 Table 3.6: Energy Diversity Index 153 Table 3.7: Energy Intensity Mean and Variance (Btu per 2005 USD PPP) 156 Table 3.8: Carbon Emissions per capita (metric tons) 160 Table 3.9: Explanations of Policy Change and Energy Policy . 163 Table 3.10: Correlation of Globalisation Index with its Component Parts . 167 Table 3.11: Correlation of Relative GDP to other Measures of Size and Power 178 Table 3.12: Variables and Definitions 189 Table 3.13: Descriptive Statistics of Variables . 193 Table 3.14: Correlation Matrix . 194 Table 3.15: Determinants of Energy Policy Outcomes (A Summary) 203 Table 3.16: Determinants of Changes in Subsidy/Tax Levels 209 Table 3.17: Determinants of Changes in Energy Diversity Index 210 Table 3.18: Determinants of Changes in Energy Intensity . 211 Table 3.19: Determinants of Changes in Carbon Emissions . 212 Table 3.20: Convergence in decreasing levels of Carbon Emissions . 213 Table 3.21: Convergence in decreasing levels of Energy Intensity 214 viii List of Figures Figure 1.1: Dialectics of the Second Image and Second Image Reversed . 12 Figure 1.2: Domestic Gasoline Prices (left) and Subsidies/Taxes (right) 20 Figure 1.3: Energy Intensity (left) and Carbon Emissions growth rates (right) . 20 Figure 1.4: International Political Economy: A Conceptual Map 29 Figure 3.1: Institutional Analysis and Development Framework 109 Figure 3.2: Conceptualising Policy Regimes: Change and Stability . 123 Figure 3.3: Energy Policy Linkages 126 Figure 3.4: Domestic Gasoline Prices (left) and Subsidies/Tax (right) . 146 Figure 3.5: Top Six Energy Baskets (1990-2012) in mtoe (% share) 152 Figure 3.6: Energy Diversity Index . 153 Figure 3.7: Energy Intensity (left) and its Growth Rates (right) 156 Figure 3.8: Carbon Emissions per unit of GDP (left) and Growth Rate (right) . 161 Figure 3.9: Carbon Emissions per capita (left) and its Growth Rate (right) 161 Figure 3.10: Interaction between Globalisation and Quality of Bureaucracy 208 ix CPE ECT EIA GECF IEA IEF IPCC IR IRENA MtCO2 NATO NEA NPC OECD OPEC PPP PS SEPA UNEP UNFCCC WTO WVS - List of Acronyms Comparative Political Economy Energy Charter Treaty Energy Information Administration Gas Exporting Countries Forum International Energy Agency International Energy Forum Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change International Relations International Renewable Energy Agency Million tons of Carbon Dioxide North Atlantic Treaty Organisation National Energy Administration National People’s Congress Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Purchasing Power Parity Policy Studies State Environmental Protection Administration United Nations Environmental Programme United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change World Trade Organisation World Value Survey x Paterson, M., M. 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Introduction Abstract: The problem of international cooperation is construed as a rational choice collective action problem in the mainstream IR literature The rationalist schools offer international system level explanations for international cooperation or the lack thereof This chapter points out the problems in the rationalist theories of international politics and makes a case for an alternative theoretical... cooperation in the area of energy and climate change is a function of national structural and political factors The argument developed in this thesis is based on a redefinition of international collective action problem as a gap between two or more actors’ expectations about one another’s policy actions/outcomes These gaps result from their respective internal structural and political environments This... include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union 14 The IEF is a forum of oil producers and consumers aimed at international energy policy cooperation 15 16 hand, are on a level of development where they are likely to continue... because of deliberate policy decisions we would call it cooperation The policy action to reduce this gap has to be in a direction that is based on mutual understanding of as to what is beneficial as a whole, what is the required pace of change, and what are the constraints faced by states It is this mutual understanding of rights, obligations, and constraints that is important for international cooperation. .. failure 4 This means a situation where states would have been better-off by cooperating but the lack of an enforcement authority, complete information, and certainty gives rise to high transaction costs Consequently, a rational course of action leads to noncooperation that is collectively sub-optimal Therefore, states demand and voluntarily create international institutions in order to reduce transaction... of a marathon to the top in terms of global energy and environmental concerns Nevertheless, visible 24 variances persist, particularly between the two groups of OECD and non-OECD countries, largely as a result of structural and political features of states These differences are gradually shrinking under increasing internationalisation and the role of international institutions and have important facilitative... bureaucracy further elucidates the impact of internationalisation of an economy on energy policy outcomes as dependent on the quality of bureaucracy and vice versa At the lower levels of globalisation, improvements in bureaucratic quality have greater impact on reducing subsidies or cutting carbon emissions as compared to more globalised countries Alternatively, increasing globalisation has greater... Elkins and Simmons 2005; Gill 2008; Strange 1996) From historical analysis of impacts of war and colonisation on domestic politics to the modern era globalisation, scholars in this tradition argue that domestic political and economic institutions are a function of their external environment Particularly the literature on the consequences of globalisation for the nation state observes diffusion of neoliberal... assumptions and ontological and epistemological dispositions (Andreatta and Koenig-Archibugi 2010; Waever 1996) According to the neo-neo synthesis, states are the primary and rational unitary actors in the international system striving for self-interest (security and prosperity) maximization 2 under anarchy – the absence of a central authority with a legitimate monopoly over the use of force Anarchy means... ‘national interests’ remain exogenously given and constant across countries over time Both these schools construe the problem of international cooperation as rational choice collective action problem since distributional conflicts can be treated as a subset of collective action problems (Fearon 1998; Holzinger 2003) Nevertheless, an increasing number of international institutions and ensuing cooperation, . international system level explanations and assume that states are rational unitary actors and hence domestic factors can be ignored. This thesis argues on the contrary that the unitary rational. international cooperation vary across countries and issue areas? How can we explain variances in energy and climate policy outcomes across countries? The mainstream rationalist – neorealist and. Relations IRENA - International Renewable Energy Agency MtCO 2 - Million tons of Carbon Dioxide NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NEA - National Energy Administration NPC - National People’s