TR - TR Chuyên ngành: Tài - Ngân hàng 60340201 TS C ng Hịa Xã H i Ch t Nam c l p - T - H nh Phúc L Tôi xin ng lu i quan h gi a t ng kinh t Các thơng tin d li trình bày lu u c a riêng c s d ng lu c k t qu c công b t i b t k cơng trình nghiên c c u phát hi n có b t k gian l n nào, tơi xin ch u tồn b trách nhi cH i ng TP.HCM, tháng 09 Tác gi lu Tr n Th Thanh Thúy M CL C Trang ph bìa L Danh m c t vi t t t Danh m c b ng, bi u Danh m c hình v th Tóm t t: 1 Gi i thi u: 2 T ng quan nghiên c 2.1 T ng quan nghiên c u liên quan: 2.2 Lý thuy t n n: u: 17 3.1 D li u: 17 3.2 Mơ hình cách xây d ng bi n: 18 K t qu nghiên c u: 32 4.1 i cán cân tài kho c sau t hóa: 32 4.2 K t qu h i quy mơ hình: 43 K t lu n: 58 Danh m c tài li u tham kh o Ph l c Ph l c Ph l c Ph l c DANH M C CÁC B NG: B ng 2.1: B ng tóm t t nghiên c u liên quan: 14 B ng 3.1.1: Danh sách 30 qu B ng 3.2.1: Th ngo n 17 m t hóa c a 30 qu c gia theo Wacziarg (2001) Trong t m th i 25 B ng 3.2.2: Bi n d u k v ng c a bi n 31 B ng 4.1.1: M i quan h gi ng GDP cán cân t c t hóa 34 B ng 4.1.2: M i quan h gi ng GDP tài kho c t B i hóa 37 ct cx B ng 4.2.1: K t qu h i quy mơ hình b hóa 39 n 1980-2011(30 qu c gia) B ng 4.2.2: H i quy mơ hình b 46 n s d ng bi n gi th i gian (30 qu c gia) 51 B ng 4.2.3: H i quy mơ hình b n 1980-2011 khu v c Châu Á (14 qu c gia) 55 B ng 4.2.4: H i quy mơ hình b n 1980-2011 khu v c Châu M La Tinh (16 qu c gia) 57 DANH M C CÁC BI : Bi 4.1.1: M i quan h gi ng, TBGDP1, CAGDP1(Giá tr trung bình c c th i k 1981-2011) 40 Bi 4.1.2: M i quan h gi Châu Á (Giá tr trung bình c ng, TBGDP1, CAGDP1 khu v c c th i k 1990-2011) 42 Bi 4.1.3: M i quan h gi Châu M La Tinh (Giá tr trung bình c 2011) ng, TBGDP1, CAGDP1 khu v c c th i k 199043 DANH M C CÁC T GMM IMF VI T T T i quy Moment t ng quát Qu ti n t th gi i OLS t PPP ng s c mua PWT B d li u Penn World Table SURE Mơ hình h i quy có v không quan h WB Ngân hàng th gi i Tóm t t: t nghiên c u s d ng d li u b ng c a 30 qu c gia ba th p k 1980- ng ng c a t kinh t ng i, tài kho n vãng lai B ph qu n ng Moment t ng quát (GMM) ki m nh có liên quan, phát hi n c a nghiên c u t ng kinh t h uh ng tiêu c c, s i t ng thơng qua s t gi i ng l i có ng tiêu c c i b t l i t ng kinh t có m i quan h tiêu c i, tài kho n vãng lai i s thâm h t kho ng 0.56%, tài kho n vãng lai thâm h t 0.34% n n kinh t ng 1% Tuy nhiên, th c hi n h i quy riêng r t ng th i k t ng khu v c k t qu m t th ng kê K t lu n c a nghiên c u t i có th h n ch cán cân tốn ng tiêu c n Gi i thi u: T th p k nh n t i h i nh p kinh t qu c t c phát tri n m nh m , n n kinh t th gi c a ho ng ki n s phát tri n ng liên k t kinh t qu c t m i Th gi i (WTO) bao g m g i c a T ch t c n n kinh t th gi n liên k t tam giác, t giác, liên k t khu v E t toàn c t khu v m it a qu c gia v Thái Lan, Vi t Nam kh ng; Hi Nh t B - Singapore, M - n Hi p ngh i t v i qu i t gi a - Trung Qu c, ASEAN - Nh t B n, ASEAN Trong m t n n kinh t toàn c m r n nay, vi c i có vai trị r t quan tr v i qu ng phát tri n th ng kinh t n, l i ích c a t c iv ng kinh t i v i cu c ng, ti m nghèo thông qua t m i quan tâm l n i i m t ng c i m c ng thu nh i m t nh ng v nh t Nh ng nghiên c u g gây tranh cãi 2002; Thirlwall Santos- Paulino, 2004; Parikh Stirbu, 2004; Parikh, 2004; Penélope Thirlwall, 2004; Egor Kraev, 2005) cho th y t id nhiên l p kh ix t kh u, u d n ng th i làm gi m nhu c u rịng hàng hố d ch v s n xu c, có th gây s s t gi m GDP Các nhà nghiên c u cho r ng t is d ng hi u qu ng kinh t v khía c nh cung nl yc ch y ch t xám qua biên gi i qu c gia Tuy nhiên, t i có th d n p kh u so v ng xu t kh u ng l i ích khía c nh cung có th b p b ng cân b ng không b n v ng v th c c v i nghiên c u trên, theo Yi Wu Li Zeng (2008) th mt d xây d ng i, nghiên c ng c a t i v i nh p kh u, xu t kh l i cho m u n H tìm th y b ng ch ng rõ ràng nh t quán r ng t id n nh p kh u xu t kh tiêu c c c a t ng i t ng th c bi t, b ng ch ng v th ng kê s d ng s d hóa c a Li (2004) Khi s d i có k t qu ng tiêu c m t ng m r ng v th m t ng t hóa b i Wacziarg Welch (2003), l i tìm th y m t s b ng ch ng cho th y t hóa làm x u ng ch ng không m nh m h s r t nh a theo nghiên c u c a Parikh (2004), b ng cách s d ng cách phân lo i c a ng bi n t hóa d li u c p nh t m i nh t Penn World Table phiên b n 8.0 c a Summers, Heston, Aten (2012) tính tốn bi ng kinh t , m c tiêu c a nghiên c u ki m tra m i quan h c a t ng kinh t i v i cán 53 Year7 0.2860923 3.204518*** (2.09) (0.25) ( 2.74) 1.726962* -1.183136 0.7382384 (1.72) Year8 2.792897** (-1.31) (0.52) Year9 2.133311 (0.93) Year10 8.937658 (1.35) AR(1) z = -1.76 Pr > z = 0.003 0.078 z = -0.70 Pr > z = z = -1.67 Pr > z = z = -0.93 Pr > z = 0.481 Hansen test z = -3.02 Pr > z = 0.006 AR(2) z = -2.73 Pr > z = 0.96 0.351 chi2(2) = 3.43 chi2(2) = 1.86 chi2(2) = 1.83 Prob > chi2 = 0.180 Prob > chi2 = 0.394 Prob > chi2 = 0.401 54 Ghi chú: *, **, *** : m AR(1), AR(2): Ki t theo th t 10%, 5%, 1% nh hi gi thi t H0 khơng có hi Hansen test: Ki ng t ng t i b c b c v i i nh s h p lý c a bi n công c 55 B ng 4.2.3: H i quy mơ hình b ng c a Arellano-Bond 1980-2011 khu v c Châu Á (14 qu c gia) Bi n ph thu c TBGDP1 (1980- TBGDP1 (1990- 1989) TBGDP1(2000-2011) 1999) (DIF GMM) Bi cl p ADVGR 0.9180761*** (4.45) (3.15) -0.40899* -0.9276145*** 1.524353** (-9.01) (2.81) 0.0018821*** 0.0002111 -0.0002033 (0.50) (-0.51) -3.862105*** -1.042426 (-4.70) LIBER 0.6192179*** (4.43) PPI 0.4721016*** (-1.78) GROWTH (DIF GMM) (5.26) TBGDP(-1) (DIF GMM) (-0.58) 0.5137718 0.4890852 -1.177764** (1.73) (0.61) (-2.71) 56 AR(1) z = -2.52 Pr > z = 0.064 0.012 z = -0.02 Pr > z = z = -0.24 Pr > z = z = 0.54 Pr > z = 0.988 0.808 0.586 chi2(8) = 7.00 chi2(8) = 6.81 chi2(8) = 6.66 Prob > chi2 = 0.536 Hansen test z = -1.85 Pr > z = 0.073 AR(2) z = -180 Pr > z = Prob > chi2 = 0.557 Prob > chi2 = 0.573 Ghi chú: *, **, *** : m AR(1), AR(2): Ki t theo th t 10%, 5%, 1% nh hi gi thi t H0 khơng có hi Hansen test: Ki ng t ng t nh s h p lý c a bi n công c i b c b c v i i 57 B ng 4.2.4: H i quy mơ hình b ng c a Arellano-Bond 1980-2011 khu v c Châu M La Tinh (16 qu c gia) Bi n ph thu c TBGDP1 (1980- TBGDP1 (1990- 1989) TBGDP1(2000-2011) 1999) (DIF GMM) Bi cl p ADVGR 0.6310632** (1.39) (2.65) -0.5412721*** 0.0378911 -0.0195761 (0.14) (-0.12) 0.0016748** 0.000556** -0.0000974** (2.21) (2.38) -0.2604014 -3.76323 (-0.12) LIBER 0.3651612 (2.89) PPI 0.3038874* (-4.01) GROWTH (DIF GMM) (1.95) TBGDP(-1) (DIF GMM) (-1.66) 0.4219982 0.5814085 -0.32722291 (1.30) (1.58) (-1.19) 58 AR(1) z = -2.52 Pr > z = 0.045 0.039 z = 0.11 Pr > z = z = -1.53 Pr > z = z = -1.18 Pr > z = 0.912 Hansen test z = -2.06 Pr > z = 0.012 AR(2) z = -2.01 Pr > z = 0.125 0.240 chi2(8) = 7.53 chi2(8) Prob > chi2 = 0.481 = 10.04 chi2(6) = 8.87 Prob > chi2 = 0.262 Prob > chi2 = 0.181 Ghi chú: *, **, *** : m t theo th t 10%, 5%, 1% AR(1), AR(2): Ki nh hi ng t gi thi t H0 khơng có hi Hansen test: Ki i b c b c v i ng t i nh s h p lý c a bi n công c K t lu n: Khi n n kinh t th gi nh i ch ng ch i v i cu c kh ng ho ng tài chính, i ch trích tồn c cho r ng t g m i m t nh ng ngun nhân c a tình tr ng t i t hi n c phát tri c n ph i có nh n n tr ng vi c th c hi n sách t hóa q nhanh ho c sách t hóa hồn tồn n có n n kinh t quy mơ nh , vi c c i thi i v i nh c i u quan tr ng vi c c i thi n cán cân toán M i quan h gi a t ng kinh t l n t 1980- 2011 c a 30 qu c gia c xem xét m t m u hai khu v c Châu M - La Tinh Châu Á 59 Nghiên c u cho th y nh ng k t qu khác v thâm h khu v a lý qu i gi a th i k khác Trên toàn b th ng xu t kh u, nh p kh tri n, nhiên t ng th v i v i 30 m ts thu h p thâm h ng kinh t i, tài kho n vãng lai có m i quan h tiêu c i s thâm h t kho ng 0.56%, tài kho n vãng lai thâm h t 0.34% n n kinh t a, toàn c c phát tri n ph thu c l v i m c tiêu b t k s n c phát tri n thu nh r tl nt i, n lu ng v ts cc n thi t Bài nghiên c y r ng t quan tr ng v i khơng có m i quan h ng kinh t thâm h i ng n h n trung h n Thâm h t tài kho i n n kinh t châu Á th i k 1980-1989 Tuy nhiên, m i quan h quan tr ng c a ng kinh t thâm h gia hai iv nt nt n 1980-1989, 19990- l i v i h u h t qu c n 2000-2011, m i quan h nh m v m t th n n kinh t n này, ng kinh t l n kinh t Châu M La Tinh, cán cân th c c i thi n m c dù t ng th v th th thâm h t nhiên v i m c Châu M La Tinh M c dù, nghiên c u v n có nh ng h n ch v ic không th hi ng t cm khác 60 c a t hóa kho ng th i gian khác nhau; n l c t hóa c a n n kinh t phát tri có nh m m i c n k t i: c p nh t d li u m t m u l n v th i gian qu c gia; s d ng d li u m i nh t c kinh t c thu c v i h ng t n; s d ng ng v i bi n tr ph ng k t lu n phù h p v i lý thuy t DANH M C TÀI LI U THAM KH O Ahmed, N., 2000 Export responses to trade liberalisation in Bangladesh: a cointegration analysis Applied Economics, Vol 32, pp 1077-84 Arellano, M and Bond, S R., 1991 Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations Review of Economic Studies Vol.58, pp.277 97 Bacha, E L., 1990 A Three-Gap Model of Foreign Transfers and the GDP Growth Rate in Developing Countries Journal of Development Economics, Vol 32, pp 279 96 Bleaney, M., 1999 Trade reform, macroeconomic performance and export growth in ten Latin American countries 1979-95 Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, Vol 8, pp 89-105 Bond, S Dynamic Panel Data Models: A Guide to Micro Data Methods and Practice London: Institute of Fiscal Studies, Paper 09/02 Chenery, H and Bruno, M., 1962 Development Alternatives in an Open Economy: The case of Isarel The Economic Journal, Vol 72, No 285, pp 79-103 Dollar, D and Kray A., 2004 Trade, Growth and Poverty Economic Journal, Vol 114, Issue 493, pp F22-F49 Egor Kraev, 2005 Estimating GDP effects of trade liberalisation on developing countries pp 1-27 Elliott D.R and Rhodd, R., 1999 Explaining Growth Rate Differences in Highly Indebted Countries: An Extension to Thirlwall and Hussain Applied Economics, Vol 31, Issue 9, pp 1145-1148 10 Greenaway, D and Sapsford, 1994 What Dose Liberalisation Do for Export and Growth? Wetwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol 130, pp 152-174 11 Greenaway, et al., 2002 Trade Liberalisation and Growth in developing countries Journal of Development Economics, Vol 67, pp 229-244 12 Jenkins, R., 1996 Trade performance and export performance in Bolivia Development and Change, Vol 27, pp 693-716 13 Krugman, P., 1989 Differences in Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates European Economic Review, Vol 33, pp 1031-1054 14 Li, Xiangming, 2004 Trade Liberalization and Real Exchange Rate Movement IMF Staff , Papers 51, pp 553 584 15 Melo, O and Vogt, M.G., 1984 Determinants of the demand for imports of Venezuela Journal of Development Economics 14, pp 351 358 16 Pacheco-López, P and Thirlwall, A.P., 2004 Trade Liberalisation, the Balance of Payments and Growth in Latin America University of Kent, pp.1-30 17 Parikh, A and Stirbu, C., 2004 Relationship Between Trade Liberalisation, Economic Growth and Trade Balance: An Econometric Investigation HWWA Discussion Paper No 282, Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Hamburg, pp 1-50 18 Parikh, A., 2004 Relationship Between Trade Liberalisation, Economic Growth and Trade Balance: An Econometric Study HWWA Discussion Paper No 286, Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Hamburg, pp.1-24 19 Ranaweera, T., 2003 Alternative Paths to Structural Adjustment in Uzbekistan in a Threegap Framework Washington D.C: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3145 20 Sachs, J and Warner, A., 1995 Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol.1, pp.1 118 21 Summers, R., Heston, A and Aten, B., 2012 Penn World Table Version 8.0, Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP) 22 Taylor, L., 1991 Foreign Resource Flows and Developing Country Growth Research for action 8, World Institute of Development Economics Research, United Nation University, Helsinki 23 Thirlwall, A P., 1979 The Balance of Payments Constrained Growth as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review,Vol 128, pp.44 53 24 Thirlwall, A P and Hussain, N M., 1982 The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Economic Growth Rate Differences Between Developing Countries Oxford Economic Papers, Vol 34(3), pp 498-509 25 Thirlwall T and Santos-Paulino A., 2004 The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Exports, Imports and the Balance of Payments of Developing Countries The Economic Journal February issue, Vol 114 Issue 493, pp F50-73 26 UNCTAD, 2012, Trade and Development Report 2012, Geneva 27 Wacziarg, R., 2001 Measuring the dynamic gains from trade World Bank Economic Review, Vol 15 (3), pp 393-429 28 Wacziarg, R and Welch, K., 2003 Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence NBER Working Paper 10152 Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research 29 Yi Wu and Li Zeng, 2008 The Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Trade Balance in Developing Countries IMF Working Paper, pp 1-21 30 World Bank Indicators, 2013 PH L C Ph l c 1: Danh sách 30 qu n Khu v c Châu Á Qu c gia Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Jordan, , Hàn Qu c, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Thái Lan, Vi t Nam Châu M -La Tinh Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Peru, Paraguay, Uruguay, Venezuela Ph l c 2: D u k v ng c a bi n mơ hình Bi n GROWTH (ngu n PWT 8.0) LIBER (Wacziarg) PPI ( ngu n WB) LIBGROWTH LIBPPI ADVGR ( ngu n IMF) DEBTSR ( ngu n WB) GROIL ( ngu n IMF) CINTEREST (ngu n IMF) D u k v ng + +/+/+ - Ph l c 3: Th ngo m t hóa c a 30 qu c gia theo Wacziarg (2001) Trong t m th i ARG (Argentina) BGD (Bangladesh) BOL (Bolivia) BRA (Brazil) CHL (ChiLê) COL (Colombia) CRI (Costa Rica) DOM (Dominica Republic) ECU (Ecuador) GTM (Guatemala) HND (Honduras) IND ( ) IRN ( Iran) IDN (Indonesia) JAM (Jamaica) JOR (Jordan) LKA (Sri Lanka) MEX (Mexico) MYS (Malaysia) NPL (Nepal) PAK (Pakistan) PER (Peru) PHL (Philippines) PRY (Paraguay) SGP (Singapore) THA (Thái Lan) URY (Uruguay) VEN (Venezuela) VNM (Vi t Nam) 1991 1996 1985 1991 1976 1986 1986 1992 1991(1983) 1988 1991 1994 Closed 1970 1989 1965 1968 1992 1986 1963 1991 2001 1991 1988 1990 1965 Always Open 1990 1996 (1990) 1995 Ph l c 4: K t qu h i quy mô hình b v i bi n ph thu ng n 1980-2011 (30 qu c gia) i GDP (TB/GDP): Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Group variable: country_dum Time variable : year Number of instruments = 15 F(7, 30) = 11.48 Prob > F = 0.000 Number of obs Number of groups Obs per group: avg max = = = = = 894 30 24 29.80 30 Corrected Std Err t P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] 6017277 1414111 4.26 0.000 3129276 8905277 0006685 1.960583 -.5692429 0550922 1949307 -.0005139 0002643 1.751617 2857384 1291056 2900533 0002681 2.53 1.12 -1.99 0.43 0.67 -1.92 0.017 0.272 0.056 0.673 0.507 0.065 0001287 -1.616697 -1.152798 -.2085766 -.3974372 -.0010614 0012084 5.537863 0143127 318761 7872985 0000336 tbgdp1 Coef tbgdp1 L1 ppi liber growth advgr libgrowth libppi Instruments for first differences equation Standard D.(ppi liber advgr libgrowth libppi) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L(2/6).(growth tbgdp1) collapsed Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = Pr > z = Pr > z = 0.001 0.039 Prob > chi2 = 0.001 Prob > chi2 = 0.117 Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: iv(ppi liber advgr libgrowth libppi) Hansen test excluding group: chi2(3) = 4.59 Prob > chi2 = Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(5) = 8.26 Prob > chi2 = 0.204 0.143 Sargan test of (Not robust, Hansen test of (Robust, but -3.18 -2.06 overid restrictions: chi2(8) = 27.35 but not weakened by many instruments.) overid restrictions: chi2(8) = 12.85 weakened by many instruments.) Ph l c 5: K t qu H i quy mơ hình b ng n 1980-2011 (30 qu c gia) v i bi n ph thu c tài kho n vãng lai GDP (CA/GDP): Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM Group variable: country_dum Time variable : year Number of instruments = 16 F(8, 28) = 24.66 Prob > F = 0.000 Number of obs Number of groups Obs per group: avg max = = = = = 779 28 14 27.82 29 Corrected Std Err t P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] 6661604 0738042 9.03 0.000 5149794 8173414 0001451 -.7307669 -.3441757 -.0408488 2047672 -.0143682 0375855 0000627 1.300187 1369455 0202336 1024046 0104017 0153803 2.32 -0.56 -2.51 -2.02 2.00 -1.38 2.44 0.028 0.579 0.018 0.053 0.055 0.178 0.021 0000168 -3.39408 -.6246958 -.0822955 -.0049992 -.0356752 0060804 0002735 1.932546 -.0636556 000598 4145336 0069387 0690905 cagdp1 Coef cagdp1 L1 ppi liber growth debtsr advgr groil cinterest Instruments for first differences equation Standard D.(ppi liber debtsr advgr groil cinterest) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L(2/6).(growth cagdp1) collapsed Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = Pr > z = Pr > z = 0.000 0.322 Prob > chi2 = 0.005 Prob > chi2 = 0.313 Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: iv(ppi liber debtsr advgr groil cinterest) Hansen test excluding group: chi2(2) = 0.52 Prob > chi2 = Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(6) = 8.84 Prob > chi2 = 0.770 0.183 Sargan test of (Not robust, Hansen test of (Robust, but -3.78 -0.99 overid restrictions: chi2(8) = 22.04 but not weakened by many instruments.) overid restrictions: chi2(8) = 9.36 weakened by many instruments.) ... 31 B ng 4.1.1: M i quan h gi ng GDP cán cân t c t hóa 34 B ng 4.1.2: M i quan h gi ng GDP tài kho c t B i hóa 37 ct cx B ng 4.2.1: K t qu h i quy mơ hình b hóa 39 n 1980-2011(30... ng m i quan h cho th y r ng t hóa thúc ng tiêu c i ng ti ph n l n qu c k ho Tuy nhiên, tài kho n vãng lai không x g t n ti p theo sau t hóa ng c a t hóa ng kinh t cho nhi u n n kinh t M hóa d... t nghiên c ng kinh t i nghiên c Li u r ng c a t hóa i, tài kho n vãng lai T t ra: ng kinh t ng b t l M i quan h hay khơng? i có d i hay không? ng kinh t n 14 M i quan h c a s ng kinh t lên tài