B GIÁO D I H C KINH T TP H O CHÍ MINH NG C A L M PHÁT M C TIÊU LÊN L M PHÁT TH C T LU NG KINH T T TP H Chí Minh 2015 B GIÁO D O I H C KINH T TP H CHÍ MINH CHÍNH SÁCH L M PHÁT M C TIÊU CÓ LÀM GI M L NG KINH T ? Chuyên ngành: Tài Ngân hàng 60340201 LU TP H Chí Minh 2015 Tác 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Các t 2.4.1 2.4.2 11 2.5 12 2.6 13 2.7 15 21 21 22 3.3 Mơ hình: 22 26 4.1 26 27 34 2013: 40 49 51 5.1 51 5.2 51 NHNN: Ngân hàn ECB: ngân hàng châu Âu GDP g , , I 1.1 1.2 không Nam không? 1.3 42 -2013 24 20 16 12 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 IF it -0.34* + 1.89 ITit*** + = se = (6.523935) T = (-0.05323) 08 09 10 11 12 13 IT it-1 5.39 DCR (1.024288) (0.284009) (3.350959) (0.0943) (0.1602) (0.1385) R-squared 0.482805 Durbin-Watson 2.055808 0.16 43 - Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 1.008332 Prob F(1,10) 0.3390 Obs*R-squared 1.282361 Prob Chi-Square(1) 0.2575 H0: Mơ hình có hi ng t H1: Mơ hình khơng có hi V có hi ng i v y, v i m i quy không ng t - Ki m tra hi i: Heteroskedasticity Test: White F-statistic 2.016853 Prob F(5,8) 0.1803 Obs*R-squared 7.806770 Prob Chi-Square(5) 0.1672 Scaled explained SS 5.342476 Prob Chi-Square(5) 0.3755 H0: Mơ hình có hi ng H1: Mơ hình khơng có hi V có hi n R-squared = 48.28%, i ng y, v i m i i i quy không 44 , Neumann V Taylor mơ hình - - át 45 - Mishkin Schmidt- tiên Q - 02 - b Mơ hình it = 5.43* + : 0.04 IT*** - 0.005 IR + 0.22 it-1 * - 1.40 DCR* -2.14 DVN* 46 se = (0.78) (0.022) (0.016) (0.05) (0.29) (0.71) t = (6.94) (1.66) (-0.33) (4.24) (-4.94) (-3.04) R-squared 0.196 Durbin-Watson 1.972 47 t so 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 GDP 08 09 10 11 12 13 IT -2013 it = 6.55* + 0.03 IT se = (1.22667) (0.12240) t = (5.34024) (-1.5184) R-squared 0.736564 Durbin-Watson 1.434541 - 0.07 IR + (0.046725) (0.2685) it-1 - 1.33 DCR* (0.187253) (0.187253) 0.05 (0.2685) (-3.8314) 48 (different -trongin different) mà GDP; khác - Brito Bystedt (2010 13 49 4.5 : i, Châu Âu Châu Á Châu Âu chung, l Tuy nhiên hát 50 51 V 5.1 cá 5.2 : 52 cho sách ti nh 53 54 - Ball, L., & Sheridan, N (2005) Does inflation targeting matter? In B Bernanke, & M Woodford (Eds.), The inflation targeting debate (pp 249 276) Chicago: The University of Chicago Press - Barro, Robert and David Gordon "Rules, Discretion, and Reputation in a Model - Batini, N., & Laxton, D (2007) Under what conditions can inflation targeting be adopted? The experience of emerging markets In F Mishkin, & K Schmidt-Hebbel (Eds.), Monetary policy under inflation targeting (pp 38) Santiago: Central Bank of Chile The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol 11, No (Spring, 1997), pp 97-116 - Brito, R., & Bystedt, B (2006) The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting in Latin America Ibmec Sao Paulo Working Papers - Brito, R., & Bystedt, B (2010) Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence Journal of Development Economics, 91, 198 210 - Cecchetti, S., & Ehrmann, M (2002) Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility?: An International Comparison Outcomes In N Loayza, & K Schmidt-Hebbel (Eds.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms (pp 247 274) - Dincer, N., & Eichengreen, B (2007) Central bank transparency: Where, why, and with what effects? NBER Working Paper 13003 Macroeconomics An Encyclopedia of 55 - - Goncalves, C., & Salles, J (2008) Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What the data say? Journal of Development Economics, 85, 312 318 Discussion Paper - Holub, T., & Hurnik, J (2008) Ten years of Czech inflation targeting: Missed targets and anchored expectations Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(6), 67 86 - - -Level Targeting versus Inflation Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol 31, No 3, Part (Aug., 1999), pp 277-295 - Lin, S., & Ye, H (2009) Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries? Journal of Development Economics, 89, 118 123 - Mervyn King (2003), Chicago Press - Mishkin, F S (2008) Challenges for inflation targeting in emerging market countries Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(6), 16 - Mollick, A., Cabral, R., & Carneiro, F (2011) Does inflation targeting matter for output growth? Evidence from industrial and emerging economies Journal of Policy Modeling, 33, 537 551 - Neumann, M J M., & von Hagen, J (2002) Does inflation targeting matter? Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, 84(4), 127 148 56 - Siklos, P L (2008) Inflation targeting around the world Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(6), 17 37 - Singh, K., & Kalirajan, K (2003) The inflation-growth nexus in India: An empirical analysis Journal of Policy Modeling, 25, 377 396 Greece - Svensson, L E O (2011) Inflation targeting In B Friedman, & M Woodford (Eds.), Handbook of monetary economics (pp 1237 1302) Elsevier - Tanuwidjaja, E., & Choy, K (2006) Central bank credibility and monetary policy in Indonesia Journal of Policy Modeling, 28, 1011 1022 - Us, V (2004) Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: Some prospects for the Turkish economy Journal of Policy Modeling, 26, 1003 1013 - Us, V (2007) Alternative monetary policy rules in the Turkish economy under an inflation-targeting framework Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 43(2), 82 101 using the 3-Equation www.sbv.gov.vn www.gso.gov.vn www.chinhphu.com.vn www.customs.gov.vn www.imf.org www.worldbank.org/vi/country/vietnam ...B GIÁO D O I H C KINH T TP H CHÍ MINH CHÍNH SÁCH L M PHÁT M C TIÊU CÓ LÀM GI M L NG KINH T ? Chuyên ngành: Tài Ngân hàng 60340201 LU TP H Chí Minh 2015 Tác 1.1 1.2... 2.4.2 - Theo Mervyn K (normin - : 12 fort - LPMT t 2.5 sách khác 13 N 2.6 14 : - Cùng Khác nhau: Chính sách tiêu xác mà khơng 15 Chính sách giá cao 2.7 - : ishkin Schmidt- 21 , Neumann V 16... Carneiro (2011) sách cho k Levin (2004) n 17 - - 18 - Us nhân công Us - 1971- 19 tiên - -trong- - 20 - 13 không - Cá La tinh, hóa 21 III tron phát - OLS n (1) T 22 - T có 23 tiêu C ld Bank