MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT VIETNAM ACADEMY FOR WATER RESOURCES HA HAI DUONG CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ON AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION. PILOT APPLICATION FOR SOME PROVINCES IN THE RED RIVER DELTA SUMMARY OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY THESIS Specialization: Water Resources Engineering Code : 62 58 02 12 HANOI, 2014 This work has been completed at: VIETNAM ACADEMY FOR WATER RESOURCES Scientific supervisors: 1. Prof., Dr. Tran Thuc - Vietnam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Environment 2. Prof., Dr. Lars Ribbe – Cologne University of Applied Science, Germany Judge 1: Assoc., Prof., Dr. Tran Viet On Water Resources University Judge 2: Assoc., Prof., Dr. Hoang Thai Dai Hanoi University of Agriculture Judge 3: Assoc., Prof., Dr. Nguyen Van Tinh Directorate of Water Resources - MARD The Thesis shall be defended against State level thesis assessment council held at: Vietnam Academy for Water Resources, No 171 Tay Son street, Dong Da district, Hanoi, Vietnam. At …… hours, on ……day… month… 2014. The Thesis can be further referred to at: - National Library of Vietnam; - Library of Vietnam Academy for Water Resources; - Library for Institute for Water and Environment. 1 PREFACE I. Research purposes Develop a method to assess the vulnerability caused by climate change on rice production; Assess the vulnerability caused by climate change on rice production in Nam Dinh, Hai Phong, Ha Nam and Hai Duong provinces. II. The scientific significance of the thesis In term of academy, the climate change vulnerability assessment method has been supplemented and completed, especially focus much on community level; Provide a set of indicator for assessing vulnerability to climate change on agriculture production; Provide a process to calculate sub-indices and main indices of climate change vulnerability index; Provide a basic methodology to develop the support software that to be recommended to apply for other relevant research. III. The practical significance of the thesis Establish a method and tool supporting for assessment and determination of the most vulnerable province and applied practically for 04 provinces as Ha Nam, Nam Dinh, Hai Phong and Hai Duong; Pilot application for 04 provinces as Ha Nam, Nam Dinh, Hai Phong and Hai Duong to determine which province is the most vulnerable to climate change. IV. The new points of the thesis Establish a method with the unified process to assess the vulnerability to climate change on agriculture production; Establish the sub-indicators and main indicators of vulnerability to climate change on water demand for crop; Develop the set of indices and maps of climate change vulnerability on water demand for crop in pilot provinces; Develop the Climate Vulnerability Assessment Support Software (CVASS) 2 CHAPTER I. LITERATURE REVIEW ON THE METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE Based on the result of literature review on the methods and frameworks for assessing vulnerability to climate change in Vietnam and over the world, in general, it is recognized that the approach of most of vulnerability method and framework divided into 3 categories as following: 1.1. Top-down approach Top-down approach focuses much on climate-risks assessment for long-term such as decade and normally to year 2100 and based on climate change scenarios. Typical methods and frameworks using this approach include 7-steps framework of IPCC, assessment method of NOAA. 1.2. Bottom-up approach This approach has been applied in the recent years and supporting for top-down approach due to it based on local adaptive strategies and indigenous technologies and knowledge responding to current climate change. This approach is very useful for strategy development and policy implementation. Typical methods and frameworks using this approach include framework of National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA), 5-steps method of America International and Cooperation Agency and Vietnam institutes and organizations such as Vietnam Red Cross, Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network, and Institute for Water and Environment… 1.3. General approach The combination of above two approaches is called general approach and this has been applied in the Australian government program for climate-risk assessment and adaptation plan in Mandurah, A Guide to Community Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment and Action of Canadian International Agency, vulnerability assessment method based on MASSCOTE (FAO) and framework of Stockholm Environment Institute and Indian Technology Institute. 3 CHAPTER II. DEVELOPMENT OF METHOD AND PROCESSES FOR ASSESSING THE VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER DEMAND FOR CROP 2.1. Development of method for assessing the vulnerability to climate change on water demand for crop 2.1.1. Selection of vulnerability concept In term of concept, the thesis selected vulnerability concept of IPCC (2001) to develop method and vulnerability assessment processes. Therefore, according to this concept, vulnerability shall be expressed by the function of Exposure (E), Sensitivity (S) and Adaptation Capacity (AC). V = f(E, S, AC) 2.1.2. Approach for method development The development of method for assessing the vulnerability to change has been based on problem solving diagram as following: (Figure 2.1): Figure 2.1: Problem solving diagram for method development 2.1.3. Method for climate change vulnerability assessment According to vulnerability concept of IPCC, problem solving diagram mentioned above and the requirements of the method, the 4 thesis proposed a 5-steps method for assessing vulnerability to climate change on water demand for crop as following: Figure 2.2: Climate change vulnerability assessment method 2.2. Processes and content of the method for assessing vulnerability to climate change on water demand for crop 2.2.1. Step 1: Preparation Collection of secondary data; Identifying assessment scope: can be divided into two regions: (i) the region affected by climate change and sea level rise and (ii) the region affected by climate change without sea level rise. Selection of climate change and sea level rise scenarios: Applying scenarios corresponding to medium emission (B2) for the method as well as pilot assessment. Screening main impacts of climate change: Screening impacts of climate change in the research area is an important step to primarily determine the impacts of climate change in the pilot areas before conducting field assessment. 2.2.2. Step 2: Field assessment - Preparation for field assessment including the activities such as: (i) Development of field assessment proposal, (ii) Selection of climate change and sea level rise scenarios; (iii) Identifying assessment scope; (iv) Preparation of tables and questionnaires for 5 data collection; and (v) Preparation of tools for assessment and data collection at community level. Processes for assessment at community level: Include following activities: Activity 1: Work with locality (province, district and commune); Activity 2: Establish partners group and to train them; Activity 3: Document and data collection; and Activity 4: Discuss with partner groups and local people. 2.2.3. Step 3: Identifying vulnerability elements The content of step 3 is to collect data for calculating Exposure (E), Sensitivity (S) and Adaptive Capacity (AC) which will be used for constructing vulnerability index in step 4. The result of step 3 is collected data tables of sub-variables of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. 2.2.4. Step 4: Constructing vulnerability index - Calculating vulnerability index; - Developing vulnerability maps and charts. 2.2.5. Step 5: Assessing vulnerability to climate change The content of this step is to determine which province/district is the most vulnerability to climate change on water demand for crop and then proposing adaptive measures. 2.3. Scientific research and algorithm applied to build Climate Vulnerability Assessment Support Software 2.3.1. Assessment of vulnerability by index method The climate vulnerability index consists of three main indices including Exposure index (E), Sensitivity index (S) and Adaptive Capacity index (AC) and their sub-indices. 2.3.2. Developing process to calculate vulnerability index; The calculation of vulnerability index, main indices and sub- indices is presented by the diagram as following: 6 Figure 2.3: The diagram to calculate climate vulnerability index 2.3.2.1. Normalization of collected data Collected data had been normalized by using Equation (1) and started at the lowest level as E 11 ÷ E 1n , E n1 ÷ E nn , S 11 ÷ S 1n , S n1 ÷ S nn , and AC 11 ÷ AC 1n , AC n1 ÷ AC nn :               2.3.2.2. Identifying the weight of indices After normalizing collected data, it is necessary to identify the weight for each sub-index. In the scope of the thesis, the weights were identified by unequal weight method basing on the quantity of sub-variables. 2.3.2.3. Calculating sub-variable indices As mentioned above, each main-variable could comprise of different sub-variables and each sub-variable could comprise of different correlative components, therefore, sub-variables indices can be calculated by Equation 2 as following:          2.3.2.4. Calculating main-variable indices                 2.3.2.5. Calculating climate vulnerability index               7 2.3.3. Process to identify and calculate vulnerability index According to contents and the equations mentioned above, the process to identify and calculate climate vulnerability index as well as the indices of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity is as followings: Figure 2.4: Process to calculate climate vulnerability index 8 2.3.4. Identifying Exposure index (E) Exposure index consists of 3 sub-indices as (i) Climate extreme event (E 1 ); (ii) Change in climatic variables (E 2 ); and (iii) Sea level rise (E 3 ). Each sub-index is expressed by the indicators as following: Sub- component Indicator Unit Source Present 2030 Climate extreme event (E 1 ) Number of annual average of 10-scale storm (E 11 ) Event Statistic Assume Number of annual average of flood (E 12 ) Event Statistic Assume Number of annual average of drought (E 13 ) Event Statistic Assume Change in climatic variables (E 2 ) Average of yearly maximum rainfall (E 21 ) mm Statistic CC Scenarios Average of yearly minimum rainfall (E 22 ) mm Statistic CC Scenarios Average of yearly maximum temperature (E 23 ) T o Statistic CC Scenarios Average of yearly minimum temperature (E 24 ) T o Statistic CC Scenarios Total of potential evapotranspiration (E 25 ) % Statistic CC Scenarios Sea level rise (E 3 ) Sea level rise (E 31 ) cm Statistic CC Scenarios [...]... policies and measures to respond to these impacts Journal of Agricultural and Rural Development – Special topic on Climate Change and Adaptive Measures (4/2011) 5 Ha Hai Duong Literature review on the methodology to assess the vulnerabilities caused by climate change Journal of Water Resources Science and Technology No 22 (7/2009), p.101 6 Ha Hai Duong et al Climate Change and Adaptive Capacity in Quy Nhon . vulnerability method and framework divided into 3 categories as following: 1.1. Top-down approach Top-down approach focuses much on climate-risks assessment for long-term such as decade and. thesis assessment council held at: Vietnam Academy for Water Resources, No 171 Tay Son street, Dong Da district, Hanoi, Vietnam. At …… hours, on ……day… month… 2014. The Thesis can be further. calculate sub-indices and main indices of climate change vulnerability index; Provide a basic methodology to develop the support software that to be recommended to apply for other relevant research.