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Distribution or copying is strictly prohibited without permission of the National Academies Press <http://www.nap.edu/permissions/>. Permission is granted for this material to be posted on a secure password-protected Web site. The content may not be posted on a public Web site. ISBN: 0-309-11157-9, 420 pages, 6 x 9, (2007) This free PDF was downloaded from: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States Committee on Energy Futures and Air Pollution in Urban China and the United States, National Academy of Engineering and National Research Council in collaboration with Chinese Academy of Engineering and Chinese Academy of Sciences Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html PREPUBLICATION COPY UNCORRECTED PROOFS Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution Challenges for China and the United States In collaboration with Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html PREPUBLICATION COPY Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution Challenges for China and the United States Committee on Energy Futures and Air Pollution in Urban China and the United States Development, Security and Cooperation Policy and Global Affairs In collaboration with Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html PREPUBLICATION COPY UNCORRECTED PROOFS THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by funding from the National Academies. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html PREPUBLICATION COPY The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles. M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org . Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html PREPUBLICATION COPY v COMMITTEE ON ENERGY FUTURES AND AIR POLLUTION IN URBAN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES U.S. Committee John WATSON, Chair, Desert Research Institute, Nevada Dave ALLEN, University of Texas at Austin, Texas Roger BEZDEK, Management Information Services, Inc., Washington, DC Judy CHOW, Desert Research Institute, Nevada Bart CROES, California Air Resources Board, California Glen DAIGGER, CH2M Hill, Inc., Colorado David HAWKINS, Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, DC Phil HOPKE, Clarkson University, New York Jana MILFORD, University of Colorado at Boulder, Colorado Ted RUSSELL, Georgia Institute of Technology, Georgia Jitendra J. SHAH, The World Bank, Washington, DC Michael WALSH, Consultant, Virginia Staff Jack FRITZ, Senior Program Officer, National Academy of Engineering (through April 2006) Lance DAVIS, Executive Officer, National Academy of Engineering Proctor REID, Director, Program Office, National Academy of Engineering John BORIGHT, Executive Director, International Affairs, National Research Council Derek VOLLMER, Program Associate, Policy and Global Affairs, The National Academies Chinese Committee ZHAO Zhongxian, Chair, Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing AN Zhisheng, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an CAI Ruixian, Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing CAO Junji, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an FAN Weitang, China National Coal Association, Beijing HE Fei, Peking University, Beijing JIN Hongguang, Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing TANG Xiaoyan, Peking University, Beijing WANG Fosong, Academic Divisions, Chinese Academy of Sciences WANG Yingshi, Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing XU Xuchang, Tsinghua University, Beijing YAN Luguang, Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences YOU Changfu, Tsinghua University, Beijing YU Zhufeng, China Coal Research Institute, Beijing Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html vii Preface In relation to studies and understanding of broad energy and pollution management issues, the U.S. National Academies have had an on-going program of cooperation with the Chinese Academies (Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Academy of Engineering) for a number of years. Joint study activities date to the late 1990s and led to the publication in 2000 of Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States. This volume was the first examination of the broad energy questions facing both nations at the turn of the new millennium. The Energy Futures study was followed in 2003 with a study publication titled Personal Cars and China, which sought to provide insight to the Chinese government in the inevitable development of a private car fleet. And, in the fall of 2003, the Chinese and U.S. Academies organized an informal workshop in Beijing to review progress made to date in China in managing urban airsheds. This resulted in a proceedings publication titled Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China; The Challenges Ahead, published in 2004. As time has evolved it has become abundantly clear that the U.S and China are inextricably intertwined through global competition for scarce energy resources and their disproportionate impact on the globe’s environmental health. These realities reinforce the need for the U.S. and Chinese Academies to continue to work closely together on a frequent and more intensive basis. An underlying assumption is that China can benefit from assimilating U.S. lessons learned from a longer history of dealing with the interplay between air pollution and energy production and usage. Moreover, as both countries focus on energy independence, there are significant opportunities to learn from one another and cooperate on issues of mutual interest. It is against this backdrop that the current study was developed. Following the 2003 workshop which first explored the role of urbanization in China’s energy use and air pollution, it was concluded that a full scale consensus study should be carried out to compare the U.S. and Chinese experiences. Both countries’ respective Academies established committees comprised of leading experts in the fields of energy and air quality to jointly carry out this task. Specifically, this study was to compare strategies for the management of airsheds in similar locales, namely ones located in highly industrial, coal- rich areas, as exemplified by Pittsburgh and Huainan, and others located in more modern, coastal/port and car-oriented areas, as exemplified by Los Angeles and Dalian. It was Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html viii PREFACE PREPUBLICATION COPY anticipated that a comparative analysis focusing at the local level should reveal how national and regional (state/provincial) policies affect local economies and their populations. Visits to all four cities by the U.S. and Chinese committee members were organized to learn as much as possible about the experiences of each city. The teams met with city government officials, local university and research personnel and key private sector actors. The teams toured local industrial plants, power plants, research laboratories, transportation control centers, and air quality monitoring facilities. In order to understand local policy and compliance aspects, the teams also met with local, regional and national regulatory officials. It is based on those visits, the professional expertise of the U.S. and Chinese committee members and the trove of data available on worldwide energy resources and consumption and environmental regimes and challenges in the U.S. and China that this report has been prepared. This study could not examine in detail the related and increasingly significant issue of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global climate change. We do, however, attempt to highlight the fact that this will be a central issue, perhaps the issue, in discussions of energy and air pollution in the future. We also give attention to opportunities to mitigate GHG emissions and some of the strategies that cities are able to and are already employing. This is an area where continued cooperation between the U.S. and Chinese Academies will be particularly useful. Similarly, we did not focus on the impacts of long-range pollution transport, but we acknowledge that this is an important global issue, and one that links our two countries. As the goals and priorities of both countries evolve with respect to energy and air pollution, it is clear that there will be a number of different strategies available, though certainly no magic bullets. This large and diverse bilateral effort was designed to represent the different (and sometimes competing) viewpoints that might support these various strategies; throughout the process, each side learned valuable lessons from the other and came away with a better understanding of the circumstances unique to each country. We hope that the resultant report is of value to policy and decision makers not only in China but also in the U.S., and that the lessons learned may be instructive to other countries currently experiencing rapid urbanization. We were honored to serve as chairs of these distinguished committees, and we compliment the U.S. and Chinese committee members for their efforts throughout this study process. John G. Watson Zhao Zhongxian National Academy of Engineering Chinese Academy of Sciences National Research Council Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html ix Acknowledgments We wish to thank the late Alan Voorhees, member of the National Academy of Engineering, the U.S. National Academies, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the Ford Motor Company for their financial support of this project. The committee also wishes to thank officials of the cities of Huainan and Dalian for agreeing to participate in this study and for welcoming the committee during its October 2005 study tour. In particular, we wish to thank: Mayor Zhu Jili, Vice Mayor Dong Zhongbing, and the rest of the Huainan Municipal government; the CPC Huainan Committee; Huainan Mining Group; Huainan Chemical Industrial Group; the Pingwei Power Plant; Zhao Baoqing and others at the Huainan Environmental Protection Bureau; Mayor Xia Deren and the rest of the Dalian Municipal government; Hua Xiujing and others at the Dalian Environmental Protection Bureau; the Dalian Traffic Direction and Control Center; the Dalian Environmental Monitoring Center; the CAS Institute of Chemical Physics; Dalian Steel Factory; Huaneng Power Factory; and the Xianghai Thermal Power Factory. On the U.S. side, we wish to thank: Lee Schipper and Wei-Shiuen Ng of EMBARQ; Dale Evarts of the U.S. EPA; Todd Johnson and Sarrath Guttikunda of the World Bank; Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato; Stephen Hepler of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection; Mark Freeman and others at DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory; Cliff Davidson and others at Carnegie Mellon University; Jayme Graham, Roger Westman and others at the Allegheny County Health Department; Rachel Filippini of the Group Against Smog and Pollution; FirstEnergy Bruce Mansfield Power Plant; U.S. Steel Clairton Works; ALCOSAN; Bellefield Boiler Plant; Dave Nolle of DQE Energy Services; Michael Kleinman, Scott Samuelson, and Barbara Finlayson- Pitts of the University of California-Irvine; ARB El Monte; Elaine Chang and others at the South Coast Air Quality Management District; Art Wong and others at the Port of Long Beach; Walter Neal of the BP Refinery; Alan Foley and others at the Southeast Resource Recovery Facility, and Art Rosenfeld of the California Energy Commission. We would like to recognize the contributions made by Jack Fritz, former Staff Officer at the NAE and the original director of this study, Lance Davis and Derek Vollmer for carrying on this work, as well as Kathleen McAllister and Mike Whitaker, who assisted with research, compilation and the report review process. Cui Ping and Li Bingyu of the [...]... Health Organization WRAP Western Regional Air Partnership, U.S PREPUBLICATION COPY Copyright © National Academy of Sciences All rights reserved Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html PREPUBLICATION COPY Summary The United States and China are the number one and two energy consumers in the world China is the largest... PREPUBLICATION COPY Copyright © National Academy of Sciences All rights reserved Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html Copyright © National Academy of Sciences All rights reserved Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html PREPUBLICATION COPY... Huainan and Dalian from China) , addresses key technological and institutional challenges and opportunities, and highlights areas for continued cooperation between the United States and China on energy and air quality issues Specifically, the study was designed to: • Describe current and planned energy uses in different economic sectors for China and the U.S and their effects on air quality; • Compare and. .. Appendix D for information on energy conversions PREPUBLICATION COPY Copyright © National Academy of Sciences All rights reserved Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html 18 INTRODUCTION that regulation has on energy use and air quality It highlights the differences between the two countries’ capacity and approach to air quality... Introduction The United States and China are the two largest consumers of energy in the world, and projections for both countries indicate that their consumption will continue to rise in the foreseeable future Both countries are mostly dependent upon fossil fuels for their energy supplies (over 85 percent in the U.S and over 90 percent in China) and, thus, in addition to meeting increasing energy demands, the. .. carefully considered Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution PREPUBLICATION COPY Copyright © National Academy of Sciences All rights reserved Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html Contents Summary 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 Introduction Energy. .. 283 Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html xii CONTENTS Appendixes A B C D Web-based Resources on Energy and Air Quality Alternative Energy Resources Summary of PM Source-Apportionment Studies in China Energy Conversion PREPUBLICATION COPY Copyright © National Academy of Sciences All rights reserved 297 303 309 317 Energy. .. within the body of the report, but are discussed in Appendix B PREPUBLICATION COPY Copyright © National Academy of Sciences All rights reserved Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html INTRODUCTION 19 THE ROLE AND IMPACT OF URBANIZATION There are many reasons that this report focuses on the role of cities First, the U.S... reviews air pollution effects, providing the context for how energy use and air pollution are interrelated and why policymakers and the general public are increasingly concerned about air quality’s impacts on health, the economy, and the environment Chapter 3 also highlights sources of emissions, ambient concentration levels and the differences between the countries in terms of what is measured and how... PREPUBLICATION COPY Copyright © National Academy of Sciences All rights reserved Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html SUMMARY 9 It is unclear whether some biofuels, including ethanol from non-cellulosic sources, provide more renewable energy than they consume in non-renewable energy for their production Biodiesel production . from: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States Committee on Energy Futures and Air Pollution in Urban China and the United States, National Academy. Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html PREPUBLICATION COPY Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution Challenges for China and the United. reserved. Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12001.html xiv ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS PREPUBLICATION COPY DRB Demonstrated