Migration, Environment and Climate Change: ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE 17 route des Morillons, 1211 Geneva 19, Switzerland Tel: +41.22.717 91 11 | Fax: +41.22.798 61 50 E-mail: hq@iom.int | Internet: hp://www.iom.int MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE: ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE US$ 78.00 The opinions expressed in the report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reect the views of the Internaonal Organizaon for Migraon (IOM). The designaons employed and the presentaon of material throughout the report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authories, or concerning its froners or boundaries. IOM is commied to the principle that humane and orderly migraon benets migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organizaon, IOM acts with its partners in the internaonal community to: assist in meeng the operaonal challenges of migraon; advance understanding of migraon issues; encourage social and economic development through migraon; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. This publicaon was prepared in collaboraon with the United Naons University Instute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) with the generous nancial support of the Rockefeller Foundaon. In parcular we would like to thank Claudia Juech from the Rockefeller Foundaon for her constant support. Edited by: Frank Laczko and Chrisne Aghazarm Copy Editor: Olga Sheean Publisher: Internaonal Organizaon for Migraon 17 route des Morillons 1211 Geneva 19 Switzerland Tel: +41.22.717 91 11 Fax: +41.22.798 61 50 E-mail: hq@iom.int Internet: hp://www.iom.int ______________ ISBN 978-92-9068-454-1 © 2009 Internaonal Organizaon for Migraon (IOM) ______________ All rights reserved. No part of this publicaon may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmied in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior wrien permission of the publisher. 92_08 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE Edited by Frank Laczko and Chrisne Aghazarm UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY UNU-EH S Institute for Environment and Human Security in collaboraon with with the nancial support of 3 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Contents Foreword by William Lacy Swing 5 Chapter I: Introducon and Overview: Enhancing the knowledge base 7 1. Introducon 9 2. Contextualizing the migraon, environment and climate change debate 13 3. The state of current knowledge and gaps: A summary of key ndings 17 4. Recommendaons for further policy-oriented research 29 5. Concluding remarks 35 6. References 37 Chapter II: Challenges and approaches to measuring the migraon–environment nexus 41 1. Seng the scene 43 2. Climate change impact, adaptaon and vulnerability (CCIAV) 51 3. Migraon and the environment 69 4. Issues of uncertainty and data requirements 77 5. Discussion and research priories 83 6. References 91 7. Appendix 1 (from Migraon DRC, 2008) 109 8. Appendix 2 (from the Mexican Migraon Project (MMP) website: mmp.opr.princeton.edu) 111 Chapter III: Collecng data on the migraon–environment nexus 113 1. Introducon 115 2. The current state of knowledge 119 3. Data collecon 139 4. Case study on Petén, Guatemala: adding quesons to an exisng survey 157 5. Ecuador case study 161 6. Conclusions and recommendaons 171 7. References 177 Chapter IV: Researching environmental change and migraon: evaluaon of EACH-FOR methodology and applicaon in 23 case studies worldwide 197 1. Introducon 199 2. EACH-FOR methodology 203 3. Field experiences: Viet Nam, Mozambique and Niger 213 4. Recommendaons for future environment–migraon research 229 4 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence 5. Conclusions 233 6. References 235 7. Appendix 241 Chapter V: Migraon and natural disasters 245 1. Introducon 247 2. Migraon and natural disaster stascs 255 3. Migratory movements out of disaster-aected areas 265 4. Migraon into disaster-aected areas 287 5. Conclusions and recommendaons 293 6. References 301 Chapter VI: Migraon and slow-onset disasters: desercaon and drought 319 1. Introducon 321 2. The changing climate and human vulnerability 323 3. Drought, desercaon and migraon 325 4. Other policy challenges: migraon and climate adaptaon 333 5. Conclusion 339 6. References 343 Chapter VII: Managing environmentally induced migraon 353 1. Introducon 355 2. Life cycle for managing environmentally induced migraon 359 3. Strategies in developing countries to manage environmental migraon 361 4. References 381 Chapter VIII: The role of legal and normave frameworks for the protecon of environmentally displaced people 385 1. Introducon 387 2. The case for developing the capacity of rights-based norms and instruments of protecon to support the needs of environmental migrants 391 3. The role of exisng legal and normave frameworks in aording eecve protecon to environmental migrants and the scope for enhancing these frameworks 405 4. The extent to which legal and normave frameworks can support the capacity of local and regional governance and civil society structures to implement adaptaon and resilience strategies 423 5. Research needs and priories 425 6. Conclusions: the supremacy of a rights-based approach 433 7. References 435 5 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Foreword by William Lacy Swing The consequences of climate change on migraon present humanity with an unprecedented challenge. The numbers of storms, droughts and oods have increased threefold over the last 30 years with devastang aects on vulnerable communies, parcularly in the developing world. In 2008, 20 million persons have been displaced by extreme weather events, compared to 4.6 million internally displaced by conict and violence over the same period. How many people will be aected by climate change by 2050? Forecasts vary from 25 million to 1 billion people with a gure of 200 million being the most widely cited esmate. Extreme environmental events such as cyclones, hurricanes, tsunamis and tornadoes tend to capture the media headlines, but it is gradual changes in the environment that are likely to have a much greater impact on the movement people in the future. For example, over the last 30 years, twice as many people have been aected by droughts as by storms (1.6 billion compared with approximately 718 million). It is important, however, not to view migraon as simply the failure of communies to adapt to climate change. Migraon has always been one of the ways in which people have chosen to adapt to changing environments. Migraon can also help those le behind in environmentally degraded areas. Studies in Côte d’Ivoire, for example, have shown that migrants who moved from Burkina Faso regularly sent home remiances which were invested in schools and hospitals and in water and irrigaon systems. Moreover, migrants are oen the rst to provide assistance when natural disasters occur. Research in countries such as El Salvador, Jamaica , Botswana and the Philippines has shown that migrant remiances increase signicantly when disasters occur providing essenal relief assistance to aected communies. As the world’s leading migraon agency, the Internaonal Organizaon for Migraon (IOM) endeavours to stay abreast of trends and issues that impact the more than 212 million migrants worldwide. Since the early 1990s, IOM has been acve in the area of migraon, climate change and the environment, and has carried out programmes in more than 40 countries from the Pacic Islands, to Lan America and on the Asian and African connents. In many of these areas, we have assisted those aected by hurricanes, severe ooding and drought. 6 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence IOM’s programmac acon has constructed a solid foundaon of rst-hand experiences and lessons learned that have energized the Organizaon’s policy and research. We have sought to enhance our knowledge base through research and publicaons that examine the complex relaonship between migraon, climate change and the environment. In doing so, we have been able to idenfy emerging trends, raise awareness, and work towards innovave soluons that are sensive to specic local condions. The main purpose of this new book is to suggest concrete ways in which the internaonal community can begin to address the huge gaps in our knowledge relang to the likely impact of climate change on migraon. The book does this by taking stock of the exisng evidence on the eects of climate change and environmental degradaon on migraon, providing a comprehensive overview of the ndings of recent research studies. Throughout, our focus is centred on how research can best inform policy and provide the evidence which decision-makers will need in the future to plan for and respond to environmentally induced migraon. Addressing the unprecedented challenge before us requires unprecedented partnership - collaboraon among internaonal organizaons, civil society, the private sector, the academic world, and governments. In preparing this new book , we hope to share our experse with our partners and contribute to global dialogue and eorts within the United Naons Framework Convenon on Climate Change and beyond. William Lacy Swing Director General Introduction and Overview: Enhancing the knowledge base Frank Laczko, Christine Aghazarm 1 1 Research and Publicaons Division, IOM, Geneva [...]... in the environment and the movement of people 11 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base 2 Contextualizing the migration, environment and climate change debate The migration, environment and climate change nexus is a complex one By way of background and in order to contextualize the debate, the following section provides a brief overview of the. .. of the existing evidence base and that is the key purpose of this book The book assesses the existing body of evidence relating to the likely impact of environmental and climate change on migration, and proposes several concrete ways in which to enhance the current Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence 10 Enhancing the Knowledge Base knowledge base In April 2008, IOM together... on the topic of migration, the environment and climate change within the aforementioned themes It examines the existing evidence with respect to the ways in which changes in the environment and climate change are affecting the movement of people and the types of policy responses and protection gaps which potentially exist Furthermore, it offers an overview of innovative approaches to measuring and. .. the sinking small 15 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base island states, like Tuvalu and the Maldives and in delta regions (interalia the Mekong, Inner Niger Delta and the Ganges Delta), and regions already facing severe drought and desertification such as the Sahel region Development implications: migration as adaptation The potential benefits... 1992) At the time the issue was framed within a wider security debate, but the momentum did not last Though it was a first attempt to explicitly 13 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base link migration with environmental change, the topic of migration and the environment and its inter-linkages was largely ignored by migration experts and policy... What will be the consequences of migration for the people who move, for those left behind and for the places of destination? There is also a concern to understand better the here and now – how is environmental change affecting migration today and can we already identify especially vulnerable populations or regions? 9 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge... Given the multi-causal nature of migration, which can result from a combination of various “push” and “pull” factors that can be inter-alia economic, social, political, establishing a direct causal link is a challenge The key is assessing the extent to which the environment or climate change 17 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base is the primary... broader and larger 29 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base scale inter-disciplinary work Though slowly changing, the two fields, migration and the environment, remain separate both in terms of data collection, methods and at the level of policy responses and analysis (ii) Towards better data and methods It is hard to persuade policy makers of the. .. Environment, Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability (EFMSV) conference, Bonn 2008 2 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence 14 Enhancing the Knowledge Base changes in the environment may have a much greater impact on the movement of people in the future Gradual environmental changes, such as desertification, coastal and soil erosion, tend to be less dramatic and therefore attract less... be addressed holistically Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence 16 Enhancing the Knowledge Base 3 The state of current knowledge and gaps: A summary of key findings The complexity of the migration and environment nexus as described above, requires not only contextualizing the debate, but also a coherent framing of the issues which surround it The following sub-sections, . Enhancing the Knowledge Base 17 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence 18 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base is the. Enhancing the Knowledge Base 14 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base link migraon with environmental change, the topic of migraon and the environment. in the coming years such as the sinking small 16 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base island states, like Tuvalu and the Maldives and