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。 Financial planning and forecasting 一、 Financial planning content 1. Assumpons ! " # $ %" & 。 2. Sales forecast ! ' 。 ( ) * ' ' 。 + ) * When sales increase, you must meet the xed assets (such as machinery, plant) or working capital (such as accounts receivable) increases, it is necessary to calculate the required amount of the increase in the number of assets and , * -. / 01 " 。 2 - * 3 。 二、 Sales forecast * But forecast possible future sale of the company situaon, you must rst calendar year based on sales forecasts as the starng point of the situaon 。 * In order to accurately predict future trends, by several aspects ： ! .4 5 。 ! "6. 。 ! 789 :. 三、 3 ;% * Assume ： ! <' 。 ! 1 。 1. Percentage of sales method ! '"== '' >? 3 3 2. Formula method ， @ ： $'% 9@ ： -$ % - ： - - A ： ) B- ： 1C$-AD-% ： ; ： : ;E' D $'% ) FG2(HH :,GI ;,I JHGI KA First, the assumpons and the sales forecast: (Percentage of sales method, the same as those formula method) 1. Assumpons ： Sales can be expected 20x7 annual growth of 20% 。 2. Sales forecast ： 20x7 = annual sales of 3.99 billion yuan x (1+20%) = 4.788 billion yuan 一、 Percentage of sales method 3. Expectaon to the preparaon of nancial statements Step1: Calculang the percentage of sales -' 。 Step2: With sales forecast changes the balance of subjects FGLM+MNN3 ' 'FGLM 。 Step3: Treatment does not change the subject with the balance of sales FGL2 D" 。 [...]... （ 1 － Dividend payout ratio) ＝ $ 324,941,400 ＋ $ 239,400,000 × (1 － 50%) ＝ $444,641,400 Step5: Estimated demand for additional funds The expected and the balance sheet asset accounts sum, obtained by total assets of $ 2,743,524,000 is expected • It is expected that the total liabilities and shareholders' equity is only $ 2,569,816,200, so is the shortage of additional funding requirements: $ 173,707,800... With sales of assets is not necessarily the same changes in the proportion of change Business growth and corporate financial policy – Internal growth rate • External financing in the company completely the case, the estimated growth rate of the highest level 。 內部成長率 = ROA × b 1 − ROA × b – Maintain the growth rate • In the company to maintain a fixed debt / equity ratio under the premise and not to issue new shares to finance, its growth rate ... Do not have to issue new ordinary shares (unless there are other considerations) Second, the formula method Restrictions on capital demand forecasts • More or less regardless of prediction method has its own assumptions, but the real world is not the case, it is also a direct result of money demand forecasts restrictions 。 • With the assets of economies of scale – With sales of assets is not necessarily the same changes in the . 。 Financial planning and forecasting 一、 Financial planning content 1. Assumpons ! " # $ %" &. Esmated demand for addional funds PFM+(,F+GGG * It is expected that the total liabilies and shareholders'. method Restricons on capital demand forecasts * More or less regardless of predicon method has its own assumpons, but the real world is not the case, it is also a direct result of money demand forecasts restricons.
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