Foreign Trade University Faculty of Economics and International Bussiness Development Economics Group assignment EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF VIET NAM Instructor: MA Nguyen Thi Hai Yen Group 10 Students: Nguyen Thanh Nam Vu Khanh An Nguyen Quang Huy Le Huu Trung Le Hai Hung Nguyen Ngoc Dung Foreign Trade University Development Economics Le Thi Dieu Linh Group 10 Nguyen Thanh Tung Ha Noi, May 2014 Group 10 Page Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 Outline Literature Review There are many studies that have examined the effects of climate change on Vietnam’s economy The majority of findings stated that climate change have negative impacts on Vietnam’s economy and suggest possible adaptation or mitigation measures to lessen the adverse impacts The economies of some countries are more vulnerable to climate change than the global average, according to a report by World Bank (2009), Vietnam is one of the five countries predicted to be among the most affected by climate change due to its long coastlines According to Tran Duc Vien in Climate change and its impact on agriculture in Vietnam, it is believed that climate change is going to have huge impact on people’s health since the rising of temperatures is a good conditions for diseases such as malaria to develop Claudia Ringler (climate change impacts in Vietnam: potential for agricultural mitigation) stated that adverse impacts of climate change can affect economic growth, poverty and malnutrition The third world is more likely to have a larger scale of their economies in agriculture and forestry Climate change surely decrease the productivity of the agriculture due to its increasing heat of global warming Low-latitude countries suffer up to four-fifth of the negative impacts of climate change (Mendelsohn et al 2006), While the negative impacts of climate change is clear, some still is optimistic about the outlook of the future world’s economy, Robert Mendelsohn (climate change and economic growth) argues that the impacts from climate change are not likely to affect the growth of global economy for the next four decades These impacts are simply not large enough to affect economic growth this century Group 10 Page Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 However some also said that although it’s a challenge, climate change also has some forgotten benefits Matt Ridley (Why Climate Change Is Good for the World) has said: “Climate change has done more good than harm so far and is likely to continue doing so for most of this century This is not some barmy, right-wing fantasy; it is the consensus of expert opinion Yet almost nobody seems to know this.” According to what he stated in his research, climate change had bring many benefits to human, such as improvement in global economic, fewer winter death, lower energy cost, better agricultural yields and many others advantages The adaptation and mitigation measures are also mentioned in many studies For example, in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, the researchers had stated how human can adapt to the change of climate in the future years, and also the way we could mitigate the emissions of GHG and climate change In this studies, the author have stated that it is a need for every country in this world to unite to face the climate change While agriculture has traditionally been the focus of attention on climate change impact, nearly every sector is sensitive to climate change and will need to adapt to future conditions(Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty Reduction in Africa) As observed, we relized that previous researches provided knowledge with features of content: Impact of climate change on specific economic sector of Vietnam, but not a whole picture of Vietnam’s economy Impact of climate change on Vietnam’s economy, but not giving absolute solutions to mitigate and prevent these effects In this research, we concentrate on the impacts of climate change on economic sectors of Vietnam, as well as the whole economy This research also provides opportunities and threats of climate change, and base on that to give the absolute and effective solutions Group 10 Page Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 I General Geographical location & Vietnam’s climate a Geographical location Vietnam is a nation which is located in Western South of Dong Duong peninsula Vietnam’s area spreads from longitude 102 ° 'E to 109 ° 27' East ; latitude from ° 27 'North and 23 ° 23' North - Vietnam’s area: 331.698 km2, including 324.480 km2 of mainland and 4.200 km2 of internal water Length of coast: 3.260 km2 (not including islands) Terrain’s characteristics:  Many lowland hills  Many plateau with thick forests  Land for agricultural usage: approximately 20%  The country was divided into mountains, the Red River delta in the north; - and the Annamite Mountains, Highlands, Central coastal plain, and the Mekong Delta in the South b Climate - Vietnam’s long area makes the climate divided into regions:  North area: humid subtropical climate  Central: tropical monsoon climate  South: Located in tropical savanna - Humidity: quite high, average 84 – 100% - There’re differences in latitude, therefore, Vietnam’s climate has featured   differentiation: Dry season (winter): from November – April of next year Rainy season (summer): from May – October Moist air is mainly come from sea => rainfall - Average of rainfall: 120 – 300 cm  Approximately 90% rainfall was dumped in the summer  Rainfall trends to increase throughout many years, and centralizes in some rainy months => the go-up of flood frequency Table 1: The prediction of annual rainfall’s increase comparing to 1980 – 1999 period (cm) Group 10 Page Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 Climate area 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 North West 1.4 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.4 North East 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.1 7.3 North Delta 1.6 3.2 5.0 6.6 7.9 1.5 3.1 4.9 6.4 7.7 0.7 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 North of Central South of Central Tay Nguyen - Average of annual temperature: In general, the temperature tends to be higher than mountains and plateaus region Temperature of North Vietnam seems to augument much more than South of Vietnam Comparing to the 1980 – 1999 period, average temperature in the North will increase by 2.4 – 6.8°C, and 1.6 – 2.0°C in the South in 2100 Table 2: The prediction of annual temperature’s increase comparing to 1980 – 1999 period (oC) Climate area Group 10 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Page Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 North West 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.6 North East 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.5 North Delta 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.4 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.4 2.8 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.9 Tay Nguyen 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.6 South 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.0 North of Central South of Central - Sea level: Current sea level: increases about 9cm comparing to 40 years ago Trend: growing fast Due to Monre date, the speed of sea level rise is expected to grow fast in the period of 2020 – 2100, go up at least 30 cm in 2050 and up to 75 cm in 2100 The prediction of sea level’s increase comparing to 1980 – 1999 period (cm) 2020 Group 10 2040 2060 2080 2100 Page Foreign Trade University Development Economics Low script Group 10 11 23 35 50 65 12 23 37 54 75 High script 12 24 44 71 100 South 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 Medium script Effects of geographical & climate on Vietnam’s economy: a Effects of geographical location to Vietnam’s economy:  Advantages: - Vietnam is located on an international crossroads of maritime& aviation, which create favorable conditions for our country to exchange with countries in the region and around the world - Vietnam is also a convenient gate-way entrance to sea for Laos, Northeast Thailand, Cambodia and China's Southwestern region - The area of sea is much more extensive than landside, which facilitates some marine economy  Favorable location is important to develop economic sectors, regions, which creates conditions to open policies, integration with the countries in the world, attracting foreign investment  Disadvantages: - The extension from North to South leads to the increase of the transportation’s cost, and difficulties in operating society & economy Vietnam is also located in disaster-prone areas like storms, floods, droughts which occur every year b Effects of climate to Vietnam’s economy: - Rainfall: the go-up of annual rainfall causes the deterioration of transportation system’s infrastructure, increases the maintaining costs Group 10 Page Foreign Trade University Development Economics - Group 10 Temperature:  The increase in temperature will make paved road (which is designed to withstand the low temperature) bearing more damage This also leads to the reduction of new roads investment  The increase of temperature also has a considerable effect on natural ecosystem, for example, shifting the temperature boundaries of continental ecosystems and freshwater ecosystems, altering the structure of plants and animals in some areas Some species of temperate and - subtropical can lead to loss of diversity Sea level:  The mangrove areas are shrunk  Biodiversity creams reduced by drought, flooding leads to the extinction in weak species Besides it, species which has strong resistance to drought and floods will grow II Definition, causes and actual situation of Viet Nam under climate change For several decades up to now, the activities of human being have increased the factor leading to the warming of the earth such as the exhaust from motorbikes and cars, the increase in population… These factors had caused so many harmful changes to the natural environment If there’s no action to deal with these problems, the result will be disaster According to the forecast of the International P Climate Change, in 2100, the global temperature will increase from 1,4 to 5,8 degree C And the warming of the earth surfaces will melt the ice of the poles and the high areas, this will lead to the increase of sea level by 90 cm, plunge some islands into water It is also estimated that to cope with the warming of the earth, each country has to spend the money equivalent to5% to 20% of its GDP each year, in which the effect to the developing countries are much greater than developed countries because of the technological level and so on Vietnam is the country under the great affection by the climate changes Definition of climate change Group 10 Page Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 The earth climatic system consists of the air, the continents and the oceans The process of the climate take place continuously between these factors According to Framework Convetion of the United Nations, we have these definitions: _ "Adverse effects of climate change" means changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health and welfare.” UNFCCC _ "Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use Causes of climate change: The causes of climate change can be divided into two categories : natural causes and those that are created by man a Natural causes There are a number of natural factors responsible for climate change Some of the more prominent ones are continental drift, volcanoes, ocean currents, the earth's tilt, and comets and meteorites In our assignment, we pay more attention to the causes that are made by human being rather than the natural ones b Human causes Group 10 Page 10 Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 polluted because of flooding and many other sequel, and this is a good condition for the emergence of communicable diseases _ To the directly affections on human living conditions According to many meteorologists, the trend of global warming is upward Until 2100, the world’s temperature will increase by Celsius degree, and Viet Nam will be strongly affected by this, especially in North area of Viet Nam It is calculated by the scientists that percent increase in temperature will lead to 17 percent decrease in eatables productivity, and for a agricultural base country like Viet Nam, the dropping productivity of rice, corn and many others food crops will cause a sharply increase in food price, many people will have to face the famine Analysis in the year of 2013 had shown that there were 19 storms landing on Viet Nam This is a mutant increase in number, and also in the work of solving the sequel of storms In comparing with the amount of storms in the year of 2003, one fact can be seen is that the climate has changed negatively in the last decade With a big number of storms per year and the blizzard frequency of storm landing on Viet Nam, the damage causing to Viet Nam is increasing after each storm Although the damage to human live is not much, there were still thousands of house demolished, hundreds of road obstructed, signal systems broken down, thousands hectare of vegetable ruined The lives of human were seriously affected by the storms, and if this conditions continue, the human will not have enough ability to face the catastrophe Last but not least, we should also considered about the increasing in sea level According to the reasoning of scientists, if this circumstance continue, in the 2100, along the coastal line of Viet Nam, water level will increase by 57 to 73 centimeters, especially in Ca Mau and Kien Giang, this amount could go up to 105 centimeters There will be around 39 percent of Mekong Delta’s area in flooding, and 35 percent of population will lost their harborage Group 10 Page 27 Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 IV Policies to deal with problems caused by climate change Opportunities Bad things cause suffering and tragedy, but they can also destabilise the status quo, open space for new discussions, and give an impetus to groups looking for positive change This is particularly relevant for climate change, which is likely to challenge governments and social systems in a way that has never happened before Climate changes will bring in many positive things that promote Vietnam’s economy: - Firstly, climate changes impact scientists to come up with new power which is both cost-effective and environmentally friendly This will benefit the global environment and also helps businesses reduce the cost and energy input, thereby - improving profitability Viet Nam can benefit from selling the CO2 emission ratio for another country to - receive incentive to afforestation or investment in other aspects of the economy Increase people’s ability to adapt to the climate changes etc Meeting the Challenges of Climate Change These approaches are essentially three different kinds of arguments about the best way to address the problem of climate change They are presented in non-technical terms so that, rather than getting bogged down in details, you can focus on the broad directions, values and trade-offs involved Of course, you may find in the course of your discussion that you and your neighbors need more information about some aspect of the issue The Three Approaches in Brief: I We need decisive local, national and international action to prevent & minimize the worst consequences of climate change Group 10 Page 28 Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 We need strong local, national and international action to dramatically cut the production of greenhouse gasses, slow down global warming, and prevent the worst consequences of climate change II We need to make sure our most vulnerable communities adapt to the inevitable changes global warming will cause It’s too late to prevent global warming, so we should make sure our communities, especially those that are the most vulnerable, prepare to adapt to the problems it will cause III We should trust the free market to lead the way in the search for solutions We should rely on the efficiency and ingenuity of businesses in the private sector to provide us with the best strategies for addressing climate change Approach I We need decisive local, national and international action to prevent and minimize the worst consequences of climate change What’s most needed now is strong government action to dramatically cut the production of greenhouse gases, slow down global warming, and prevent as much as possible the damage it would otherwise Therefore we should things like: Increase conservation and fuel efficiency by: - Requiring car makers to produce more fuel efficient cars, and discouraging - consumers from buying gas-guzzlers through a heavy sales tax on those vehicles Taxing carbon emissions to encourage the industrial sector to curb their emissions Putting construction codes in place that require new buildings to be highly energy efficient Group 10 Page 29 Foreign Trade University Development Economics - Group 10 Investing in energy-saving public transportation Increase federal funding for scientific research into: - Clean, renewable sources of energy (such as solar, wind, and safe forms of nuclear - energy) Technologies that “capture” greenhouse gases from smokestacks and “store” them in ways that render them relatively harmless to the environment Take a leading role in international efforts to: - Reduce greenhouse gases through policies that put strict limits on the amount of - carbon emissions a country can release into the atmosphere Provide aid to developing countries in the form of know-how and resources that help them industrialize with clean energy The Role of Government Our government must play a major role in addressing climate change at home and leading the way abroad, because this is precisely the kind of long-term, complex issue that private businesses, focused as they are on the bottom line, have little incentive to address on their own The Role of Business With strong governmental regulations, business and industry must begin to make necessary changes to reduce emissions The Role of Citizens In addition to voting for candidates who support the above policies, citizens can things like: Group 10 Page 30 Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 - Recycle and use energy in the home and at work more efficiently, and encourage - others to the same Buy local food and merchandise, because they require less transportation to reach us, and are therefore responsible for less greenhouse gas emissions Arguments for and against Approach I - Arguments in Favor: These policies can help us become less dependent on foreign sources of energy, especially oil While it is likely to hurt some business interests (such as oil), this approach will protect the overall economy from ecological disasters, while also creating new business opportunities in other areas such as - clean energy and “green” construction Arguments Against : This will be expensive and would require diverting resources from other important problems, such as health care and reducing the federal deficit This approach will limit consumer choices while also raising prices as businesses pass their increasing costs on to consumers Approach II We need to make sure our most vulnerable communities adapt to the inevitable climate changes global warming will cause Given how far global warming has already advanced, and given how little willingness and ability the world has shown to face up to it, the wisest course of action is to figure out how to help our most vulnerable communities adapt to the serious problems climate change will inevitably cause Therefore we should things like: Adapt society to harsher weather conditions by: - Enacting new building codes to make our cities more weather- and flood-proof Giving aid to farmers to help them switch to crops and methods that can survive climate disruptions Group 10 Page 31 Foreign Trade University Development Economics - Group 10 Developing new dams and water control systems to minimize the impacts on cities likely to be affected by higher sea levels Discourage people from living in areas that are likely to be hard-hit by floods and wildfires by: - Ending federal flood insurance Providing tax incentives that encourage them to move to less vulnerable regions Focusing business development in regions of the country least likely to be affected by severe weather and flooding Increase federal funding for scientific research into such areas as: - Developing local food crops that can adapt to harsh weather conditions Control of tropical diseases and pests The Role of Government State and local government, with the federal government’s support, should lead local communities in developing ways to cope with the problems and challenges that climate change is likely to create The Role of Business Instead of asking businesses to reduce greenhouse emissions, they should be required to donate a meaningful percentage of their profits to fund local programs that help communities adapt to climate change The Role of Citizens In addition to voting for candidates who support the above policies, citizens can things like: Group 10 Page 32 Foreign Trade University Development Economics - Group 10 Learn about the impacts climate change could have in your area (e.g., rising sea levels, droughts, heat waves) and work with your neighbors and local officials to - adapt your homes and community to deal with them Work with schools, hospitals, and the city council to develop evacuation plans and other emergency procedures to keep people safe during dangerous weather Arguments for and against Approach II - Arguments in Favor: This approach focuses on saving lives rather than on unrealistic hopes of stopping global warming This will protect business from - legislation that could harm productivity and prosperity Arguments against: Even if we can’t prevent all of the bad effects of global warming, we’ll only be able to adapt successfully if its effects are not too destructive, so prevention and mitigation efforts are still crucial By itself, an “adaptation” strategy is just giving permission to polluters to continue to produce more green-house gasses Approach III We should trust the free market to lead the way in the search for solutions The most important thing we can to address the challenges of global warming is to make sure businesses have the information, freedom, and incentives that allow them to respond to new opportunities When it’s profitable to “go green” or develop strategies that help communities adapt to climate change, creative entrepreneurs will seize the opportunity Therefore we should things like: Cut back on regulation and red tape that might inhibit business from responding to new opportunities in alternative energy by: - Easing patent and other regulatory processes so that businesses can bring new, “green” technologies to the market much more quickly Group 10 Page 33 Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 - Making it as easy to build and operate nuclear power plants in America as it is in - many other countries Creating incentives for businesses to “go green,” such as tax breaks and national recognition awards Encouraging private sector research by: - Providing tax breaks for businesses that are exploring new forms of clean energy Supporting business-university partnerships to develop practical technologies for - businesses to implement Giving business interests a stronger hand and greater say in advising Congress on new environmental policies Work toward international agreements that: - Offer trade incentives to companies that reduce greenhouse gases Encourage international banks and multinational corporations to invest in “green” technologies for the developing world so more nations can industrialize without contributing to global warming The Role of Government The main role of government is to create an economic environment that helps businesses to seize new market opportunities The Role of Business Businesses should be free to pursue what is good for their prosperity with minimum interference from government so that the free market can dictate which solutions should be pursued and when The Role of Citizens In addition to voting for candidates who support the above policies, citizens can things like: Group 10 Page 34 Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 - Support organizations that advocate for low-tax, low-regulation policies that allow - businesses more freedom to innovate Use their dollars to reward companies that produce energy-efficient goods Arguments for and against Approach III - Arguments in Favor: The most important thing we can to address the challenges of climate change is to bring the innovation and ingenuity of business to bear upon them If we wait for the politicians to act, we’ll be waiting forever Relying on business solutions will avoid highly expensive government programs and the intrusive regulations and policies that restrict the freedom of businesses - and consumers Arguments Against: The free market can’t solve all our problems After all, it was big businesses, in the form of energy and automobile companies (among others) that helped get us into this mess Why should we trust them to get us out of it, or give them even more influence over the government than they already have? More and more business leaders are themselves saying they can’t make the long-term, costly changes to bring about greater conservation and cleaner energy without significant government regulation and leadership Group 10 Page 35 Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 Conclusion The Earth – the third planet in the Solar System – was fortunately to be a planet containing the lives However, how long could the existence of life on this planet remain is still a difficult question, especially when the human themselves is destroying their home The blue planet used to have many primary forest with unlimited living creatures, many crystal clear rivers with romantic views and big economic benefits, and also the blue sea with undulating wave But now, all of these beautiful things are vanishing over time, and the cause of this is no other than human’s acts Inordinate deforestations, littering causing pollutions, industrial emissions causing greenhouse effect etc All of these acts had destroyed the Earth, and now human have to find solutions to resolve the sequel which they have begun Many conferences were held, many organizations were formed, but the effects is still not enough, those were lost can never be retrieved The life of human is now in a dangerous situation when climate changes, catastrophes occur frequently and many other problems emerged This is no longer the matter of one random country or region, it has become the worry of the humanity Viet Nam, which is one of the most affected country, has also tried its best to improve the situations As a citizen of Viet Nam, a human living in the world, we can help by many ways, such as saving energy, saving water, put the trash in the right place, plant a tree or etc Although these act is simple, the effect is still enormous, especially when it is multiplied by the amount of people living in this world It is a hopeful future when human can unite to save our home Group 10 Page 36 Foreign Trade University Development Economics Group 10 References - Bảo Minh (2013), GDP Việt Nam giảm biến đổi khí hậu http://www.khcn-bdkh.vn/news/49-GDP-Viet-Nam-giam-do-bien-doi-khi- - hau.html Bình An (2012), Biến đổi khí hậu: Tác động mạnh mẽ tới kinh tế Việt Nam http://giaoduc.net.vn/Kinh-te/Bien-doi-khi-hau-Tac-dong-manh-me-toi-nen- - kinh-te-Viet-Nam-post100934.gd Bích Liên (2014), Biến đổi khí hậu ảnh hưởng nghiêm trọng đến ngành nơng nghiệp thuỷ sản , http://dangcongsan.vn/cpv/Modules/News/NewsDetail.aspx? - co_id=30106&cn_id=638657 Khoa Tài nguyên Môi trường, Trường ĐH Nông Lâm TP.HCM (2009), Biến - đổi khí hậu - Ảnh hưởng biến đổi khí hậu Matt Ridley (2013), Why climate change is good for the world, - http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9057151/carry-on-warming/ Minh Trung (2013), Mất hàng triệu hécta đất trồng Biến đổi khí hậu, http://duanlamnghiep.gov.vn/Ban-can-biet_0028800006/Mat-hang-trieu- - hecta-dat-trong-do-Bien-doi-khi-hau_1238.html Ngọc Tú (2013), Ngành nuôi trồng thủy sản Việt Nam việc thích ứng với biến đổi khí hậu, http://aquanetviet.org/post/1158174/ng-nh-nu-i-tr-ng-th-y-s-n-vi-t-nam-v-vi- - c-th-ch-ng-v-i-bi-n-i-kh Trần Thọ Đạt, Đinh Đức Trường, Vũ Thị Hoài Thu (2013), Tác động biến đổi khí hậu đến kinh tế Việt Nam, - http://www.neu.edu.vn/ViewThongTinKinhTe.aspx?ID=360 Thái Chuyên (2014), Tác động biến đổi khí hậu tăng trưởng kinh tế mối liên hệ với Việt Nam, http://www.longan.gov.vn/chinhquyen/soct/Pages/Tac-dong-cua-bien-doi-khihau-doi-voi-tang-truong-kinh-te.aspx Group 10 Page 37 Foreign Trade University Development Economics - Group 10 Thảo Nguyên (2013),Thủy sản Việt Nam chịu thiệt hại nặng biến đổi khí hậu, http://www.vrn.org.vn/vi/h/d/2013/01/571/Thuy_san_Viet_Nam_chiu_thiet_h - ai_nang_nhat_do_bien_doi_khi_hau/index.html Viện Khoa học Khí tượng Thủy văn Mơi Trường (2013), Biến đổi khí hậu tác động Việt Nam Group 10 Page 38 ... http://aquanetviet.org/post/1158174/ng-nh-nu-i-tr-ng-th-y-s-n-vi-t-nam-v-vi- - c-th-ch-ng-v-i-bi-n-i-kh Trần Thọ Đạt, Đinh Đức Trường, Vũ Thị Hoài Thu (2013), Tác động biến đổi khí hậu đến kinh tế Việt Nam, - http://www.neu.edu.vn/ViewThongTinKinhTe.aspx?ID=360... http://www.khcn-bdkh.vn/news/49-GDP-Viet-Nam-giam-do-bien-doi-khi- - hau.html Bình An (2012), Biến đổi khí hậu: Tác động mạnh mẽ tới kinh tế Việt Nam http://giaoduc.net.vn/Kinh-te/Bien-doi-khi-hau-Tac-dong-manh-me-toi-nen- - kinh-te-Viet-Nam-post100934.gd... http://www.longan.gov.vn/chinhquyen/soct/Pages/Tac-dong-cua-bien-doi-khihau-doi-voi-tang-truong-kinh-te.aspx Group 10 Page 37 Foreign Trade University Development Economics - Group 10 Thảo Nguyên (2013),Thủy sản