Tai Lieu Chat Luong Climate Management Issues Economics, Sociology, and Politics Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:53 11 December 2014 Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:53 11 December 2014 Climate Management Issues Economics, Sociology, and Politics Julie Kerr Gines Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:53 11 December 2014 CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2012 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business No claim to original U.S Government works Version Date: 2011915 International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-4398-6151-6 (eBook - PDF) This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained If any copyright material has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint Except as permitted under U.S Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www.copyright com (http://www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400 CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of users For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com Contents Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:53 11 December 2014 Author xiii Introduction xv The Earth’s Climate System Overview Introduction Development What Is Climate Change? The Global System Concept The Atmosphere’s Structure .8 The Carbon Cycle: Natural versus Human Amplification 10 The Hydrologic Cycle and the Relationships between the Land, Ocean, and Atmosphere 12 Global Energy Balance 15 Rates of Change 17 Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Change 18 Extreme Weather 21 The Role of Ocean Circulation in Climate Change 24 The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt and Consequences of Destabilization: Abrupt Climate Change 27 Effects of Sea-Level Rise 29 Future Projections 30 Conclusions 31 Discussion 34 References 35 Suggested Reading 37 The Role of Greenhouse Gases 39 Overview 39 Introduction 40 Development 40 Radiation Transmission 41 The Natural and Enhanced Greenhouse Effect 42 Radiative Forcing 46 The Earth’s Energy Balance 47 Greenhouse Gases 48 Climate Change Potential 50 Carbon Sequestration 52 Sinks and Sources 53 Types of Carbon Sequestration 58 v Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:53 11 December 2014 vi Contents Impacts of Deforestation 60 Anthropogenic Causes and Effects: Carbon Footprints 62 Areas Most at Risk 65 Fossil Fuels and Climate Change 66 The New Carbon Balance: Summing It All Up 68 The Concern about Coal Emissions 72 Health Issues Associated with Climate Change 74 Contributors to Climate Change and Pollution 80 Key Impacts 81 Conclusions 83 Discussion 83 References 84 Suggested Reading 88 Climate Change and Its Effect on Ecosystems 89 Overview 89 Introduction 90 Development 90 The Results of Climate Change on Ecosystems 95 Impacts to Forests 96 Impacts to Rangelands, Grasslands, and Prairies 101 Impacts on Polar Ecosystems 104 Impacts to Desert Ecosystems 108 Desertification 110 Heat Waves 115 Wildfire 117 Mountain Ecosystems in Danger Worldwide 118 Lack of Water Storage 120 Glaciers and Flooding 120 Challenges in Alpine Regions 121 Challenges in Marine Environments 122 Temperate Marine Environments 122 The Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Locations 122 Sea-Level Rise 123 The Effects of Climate Change on Open Oceans 124 Tropical Marine Environments 124 Fragile Ecosystems: Reefs and Corals 125 Climate Change Stress to Coral Reefs 125 Freshwater Environments 126 IPCC Assessment 127 Conclusion 127 Discussion 128 References 129 Suggested Reading 133 Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:53 11 December 2014 Contents vii The Inception of Climate Change Management 135 Overview 135 Introduction 136 Development 136 The Montreal Protocol: A Working Model 136 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol 139 The UNFCCC 139 The Kyoto Protocol 141 The U.S Response and International Reactions 144 The G8 149 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 150 Working Group I 151 Working Group II 152 Working Group III 153 IPCC Reports 154 Working Group I Report: The Physical Science Basis 154 Working Group II Report: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability 156 Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change 158 The Bali Conference (2007) 159 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference (2009) 161 Cancun Convention (2010) 163 Bangkok (2011) 165 Conclusions 166 Discussion 167 References 168 Suggested Reading 169 Sociological Connections to Climate Change 171 Overview 171 Introduction 172 Development 172 The Environment and Sociology 172 The Need for Biodiversity 182 Environmental Movements: The Classic Case of Earth Day 183 The Ramifications of Climate Change on Society 185 Climate Justice 186 Immigration Issues 187 One Explanation to Encourage Going Green 188 Other Social Factors to Consider 189 Conclusions 192 Discussion 193 References 194 Suggested Reading 195 Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:53 11 December 2014 viii Contents Human Psychology and the Media 197 Overview 197 Introduction 197 Development 198 Climate Change, Human Psychology, Cultural Values, and the Media 198 The Power of the Media 201 Keeping a Journalistic Balance 202 Scientists’ Mindsets and Data Change 205 The Occasional Data Flaw 207 Conclusions 209 Discussion 210 References 211 Suggested Reading 212 The Role of International Organizations 213 Overview 213 Introduction 213 Development 214 The Evolution of International Cooperation 214 The Role of International Organizations 216 Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership 216 European Climate Change Programme 217 International Carbon Action Partnership 219 The Progress of Individual Countries 220 Iceland 221 Norway .225 Japan 225 Nations Working toward Sustainability 226 Conclusions 228 Discussion 229 References 229 Suggested Reading 230 The Political Arena 233 Overview 233 Introduction 233 Development 234 The Current Political Climate in the United States 234 President Obama’s Outlook on Climate Change at Election 236 The Beginnings of Change in Legislation 239 Current Executive Branch Action 241 BACT Guidance 242 The Tailoring Rule 243 Endangerment Finding 243 Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:53 11 December 2014 Contents ix Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule 244 Federal Vehicle Standards 244 Renewable Fuel Standard 245 Current Congressional Action 247 Congressional Input and Contributions toward Climate Change Legislation with Obama 249 The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 249 Past Congressional Input and Contributions toward Climate Change Legislation 251 The Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act of 2007 252 The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2008 252 The International Political Arena 255 Policies in Key Countries 255 Conclusions 259 Discussion 260 References 261 Suggested Reading 262 Sociopolitical Impacts of Climate Change 265 Overview 265 Introduction 265 Development 266 Climate Change, National Security, and Terrorism 266 Climate Change, Inaction, and War 272 Climate Change, Conflict, and State Fragility 273 The Concept of Climate Justice and Equity 277 Conclusions 278 Discussion 279 References 280 Suggested Reading 281 10 Military Issues and Climate Change 283 Overview 283 Introduction 283 Development 285 Climate Change and Military Effectiveness 285 The Pentagon Takes the Lead on Cutting Back on Fossil Fuels 288 DoD Embraces Green Energy: Turning Goals into Examples 289 Conclusions 291 Discussion 292 References 293 Suggested Reading 294 11 Economics of Climate Change and Socioeconomic Implications 297 Overview 297 Clouds and water vapor Transport Condensation (latent heating of atmosphere) Evaporation Evapotranspiration Surface Inf iltr runoff ation Pe soil rcola mo tion istu re Soil heterogeneity Radiative exchange Precipitation Water management Boundary layer (and exchange with free atmosphere) Ocean St r e Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 Water storage in ice and snow Water table am flow River discharge Ground-water flow Bedrock FIGURE 1.3 The earth’s hydrologic cycle (Courtesy of NASA, NASA energy and water cycle study, http:// news.cisc.gmu.edu/NEWS%2005%20Discovery%20and%20Product%20projects.htm, 2011.) Polar cell L Polar Lfront L H Horse H latitudes H Ferrel cell H Hadley cell Intertropical zone L L convergence L L Trade winds H H H Westerlies H L L L Polar easterlies FIGURE 1.4 This diagram represents the earth’s major atmospheric circulation patterns Major wind systems, such as the trade winds and westerlies lie between permanent bands of high or low pressure located at specific latitudes (Courtesy of NASA, The water planet: Meteorological, oceanographic and hydrographic applications of remote sensing, Section 14 of Remote Sensing Tutorial, http://rst.gsfc.nasa.gov/Front/tofc.html, 2011.) 60° North Pacific Gulf Stream 30° N Oyashio North Atlantic Drift North Pacific Kuroshio North Equatorial North Equatorial s Equatorial Counter lha Equatorial Counter South Equatorial North Equatorial l Brazil Peru 30° Benguela r c Subpola South Equatorial West Australia South East Australia n India Antarctic Circumpolar Antarctic Circumpolar Antarcti North Equatorial Equatorial Counter Mozambique lantic South At South Pacific 60° w or Canary California South Equatoria d lan n ia eg en Labrador Alaska 0° re tG s Ea Agu Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 FIGURE 1.5 On August 5, 2010, an enormous chunk of ice, approximately 251 square kilometers in size, broke off the Petermann Glacier along the northwestern coast of Greenland According to climate experts at the University of Delaware, the Petermann Glacier lost about one-fourth of its 70-kilometer-long floating ice shelf The recently calved iceberg is the largest to form in the Arctic in 50 years (Courtesy of NASA, Ice island caves off Petermann Glacier, http://earthobser​ vatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=45207, 2010.) Antarctic Subpolar Robinson Projection Warm Current Cold Current FIGURE 1.6 The earth’s major ocean currents are responsible for the global transport of heat Without them, many areas would be much cooler than they currently are Africa Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 Asia Europe North America Atlantic Ocean South America North America Pacific Ocean Indian Ocean fa sur fl ce ow Australia rm Wa Cool subsurface flow FIGURE 1.7 The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt is the major transport mechanism of heat in the ocean If its flow were disrupted, it could trigger an abrupt climate change, such as an ice age in western Europe (Courtesy of NOAA, Ocean facts, http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/coldocean.html, 2011.) (a) February average (1985–2000) (b) 1979 February 2008 Sea ice age (years) 2007 FIGURE 1.8 In the Arctic, sea-ice extent fluctuates with the seasons It reaches its peak extent in March, near the end of Northern Hemisphere winter, and its minimum extent in September, at the Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 end of the summer thaw In September 2007, Arctic sea-ice extent was the smallest area on record since satellites began collecting measurements about 30 years ago (a) Although a cold winter allowed sea ice to cover much of the Arctic in the following months, this pair of images shows the drastic change in conditions On the right (February 2008), the ice pack contained much more young ice than the long-term average (left) In the past, more ice survived the summer melt season and had an opportunity to thicken over the following winter The area and thickness of sea ice that survives the summer has been declining over the past decade (Courtesy of NASA, NASA and the International Polar Year, http://www nasa.gov/mission_pages/IPY/multi media/ipyimg_20080326.html, 2008.) (b) This shows the comparison between the September annual minimum of sea ice in 1979 and the September image from 2007, illustrating the drastic decline in ice (Courtesy of NASA, “Remarkable” drop in Arctic Sea ice raises ­questions, http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/ arctic_minimum.html, 2008.) (c) Since 1880 and the rise of industrialization, the land and ocean temperatures have steadily climbed upward, emphasizing the anthropogenic effect of climate change (Courtesy of NASA/GISS, Global annual mean surface air temperature change, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/, 2006.) (d) The average monthly Arctic sea-ice extent has steadily decreased by 2.5 million square kilometers since 1979 (Courtesy of National Snow and Ice Data Center, Arctic Sea ice extent remains low; 2009 Sees third-lowest mark, http://nsidc.org/news/press/20091005_minimumpr.html, 2009.) Penetrates Earth’s atmosphere? Y Radiation type Wavelength (m) Ratio 103 Y N Microwave 10–2 Infrared 10–5 N Visible Ultraviolet X-ray Gamma ray 0.5×10–6 10–8 10–10 10–12 Approximate scale of wavelength Buildings Humans Butterflies Needle point Protozoans Molecules Atoms Atomic nuclei Frequency (Hz) Temperature of 104 objects at which this radiation is the most intense wavelength emitted 108 1012 1K –272°C 100 K –173°C 1015 10,000 K 9,727°C 1016 1018 1020 10,000,000 K ~10,000,000°C FIGURE 2.1 The sun’s electromagnetic spectrum ranges from short wavelengths, such as x-rays, to long wavelengths, such as radio waves The majority of the sun’s energy is concentrated in the ­visible and nearly visible portion of the spectrum—the wavelengths located between 400 and 700 nm –1.5 Albedo Linear contrails Cloud albedo effect Direct effect Black carbon on snow Ozone Net anthropogenic component –1 Greenhouse gases Aerosols Solar irradiance –0.5 Land use NO2 Stratospheric 0.5 CH4 Tropospheric Halocarbons 1.5 CO2 Radiative forcing (W/m)2 Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 Stratospheric water vapor Radiative forcing components 2.5 FIGURE 2.3 This graphic illustrates the concept of radiative forcing In order to understand climate change, it is necessary to understand the components in the atmosphere that control the overall warming and cooling on short- and long-term bases (Adapted from NASA/GISS, Forcings in GISS climate model, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/.) FIGURE 3.1 This is the Muir Glacier located in Alaska The left image was taken in 1941, and the right image was taken in 2004 The massive melting that has taken place is attributed largely to anthropogenic warming of the atmosphere (Courtesy of National Snow and Ice Data Center; left photo by William O Field; right photo by Bruce F Molnia.) Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 FIGURE 5.7 A cartogram depicting world global warming This illustrates the world in terms of carbon emissions The United States, Europe, and China are disproportionately large, whereas Africa is barely visible (Courtesy of SASI Group, University of Sheffield, and Mark Newman, University of Michigan, http://www.worldmapper.org/display.php?selected= 295, 2006.) Renewable fuel volume requirements (in billion gallons) 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Cellulosic biofuels Biomass-based diesel Other advanced biofuels Other renewable fuels FIGURE 8.1 This schematic illustrates the working plan for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2), which contains a four-part mandate for life-cycle GHG-emissions levels relative to the 2005 baseline of petroleum for renewable fuel, advanced biofuel, biomass-based diesel, and cellulosic biofuel Important transitions in emiting countries over the coming century Business-as-usual CO2 emission projections by region Fossil and industrial CO2 emissions, Gt CO2/year 90 80 70 50 40 30 20 Annex I Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 60 Non-Annex I Non-Annex I emissions equal with Annex I emissions 10 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 Africa Middle East Latin America Southeast Asia India China Korea FSU Eastern Europe Japan Australia/NZ Western Europe Canada United States FIGURE 8.2 This figure shows the “business-as-usual” projections of major GHG-emitting countries throughout the remainder of this century, illustrating why it is imperative that the Annex II countries—those designated in the Kyoto Protocol as not needing to be mandated by emissions control—be held accountable for their emissions China, for example, is rapidly developing industrially and is now emitting enormous amounts of GHGs into the atmosphere Without future control of the Annex II countries, the implications of future CO2 levels (and temperature rise over the 2ºC level) are unmanageable Asia North America Europe Africa South America North America Pacific Ocean Indian Ocean Atlantic Ocean fl ace urf ms ow Australia War Cool subsurface flow Heat releases to atmosphere FIGURE 9.1 Working as a massive conveyor belt of heat, the ocean thermohaline circulation has a significant effect on weather worldwide As global warming continues to heat up the planet, many scientists are worried that the addition of freshwater to the ocean from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet could stop the North Atlantic conveyor If it did shut down, or even slow down, it would send colder temperatures to Europe and cause other sudden climate changes around the world (Courtesy of NOAA, Ocean facts http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cold ocean.html, 2011) Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 Recent past (1961–1979) Lower emissions scenario (2080–2099) Higher emissions scenario (2080–2099) Number of days 120 FIGURE 11.1 The number of days in which the temperature exceeds 100ºF by late this century, compared to the 1960s and 1970s, is projected to increase strongly across the United States For example, parts of Texas that recently experienced about 10–20 days per year over 100ºF are expected to experience more than 100 days per year in which the temperature exceeds 100ºF by the end of the century under the higher-emissions scenario The lower-emissions scenario assumes a CO2 concentration of 550 ppm, and the higher-emissions scenario assumes a concentration of 850 ppm (Courtesy of U.S Global Change Research Program; image found in Brennan, P., Orange County Register, May, 12, 2011) Determining level of climate risks for business Raw materials Supplies Is climate important to the business risk? Workforce Utilities Y Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 N Products Class C risk Infrastructure Services Is current climate causing an immediate threat? Transportation N N Does the threat involve a long-term investment or other involved commitment of substantial nature? Y Y Is a high value and loss at stake if a wrong decision is made? N Class B risk Y Class A risk Climate is not a high priority Take action to assess the risk in detail and respond Monitor and reassess in the future FIGURE 11.6 It is an imperative part of any successful business implementation plan today to include the influence of any climate change impacts that may be significant to the operation of a business Systematic integration of global change Global change challenges Ecosystem function Production Adaptation Climate change Biogeochemical cycling Ozone depletion Soil and water conservation Pollution Animal-plant interactions Changes in population and resource consumption Land use and land cover change Transfer Interactions Biodiversity loss (landscape fragmentation) Goods and services Food and fiber Mitigation Clean water and air Carbon sinks Flood and storm control Sediment export Pollution control Impacts on society Biodiversity (pollination, animal migration) Landscape connectivity Aesthetic/spiritual, cultural/ recreational services Socioeconomic drivers Economic growth Technology Population Demand on extra goods and services Governance FIGURE 11.7 Economics are influenced interactively by ecosystems and their resultant goods and services, as well as socioeconomic drivers, and global change These components can act independently, dependently, or interdependently to form the complete economic picture, and a working knowledge of all components is necessary in order to make sound, long-term business decisions Carbon credit projects Geosequestration Biosequestration Agricultural methane Landfill methane Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 Energy efficiency Other renewable energy Biomass Wind power Hydropower Other FIGURE 12.1 Trading carbon credits is one way to share the burden of reducing CO2 emissions globally Current trading ratios are as follows: geosequestration (5%), biosequestration (11%), agricultural methane (3%), landfill methane (16%), energy efficiency (4%), biomass (3%), wind power (15%), hydropower (32%), other renewable energy (1%), and other (10%) Gas to domestic supply Biomass Cement, steel, refineries, etc Gas Natural gas + CO2 capture Coal Oil Electricity generation + CO2 capture Mineral carbonation Petrochemical plants Future H2 use CO2 geological storage Industrial uses CO2 geological storage Ocean storage (ship or pipeline) FIGURE 12.2 The IPCC’s schematic diagram of possible CCS systems, showing the sources for which CCS might be relevant, transport of CO2, and storage options (Courtesy of Rubin E et  al., IPCC special report: Carbon dioxide capture and storage technical summary, http://www.ipcc.ch/ pdf/specialreports/srccs/srccs_technicalsummary.pdf, 2011.) Overview of geological storage options Depleted oil and gas reservoirs Use of CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery Deep saline formations — (a) offshore (b) onshore Use of CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 3a 3b Produced oil or gas Injected CO2 Stored CO2 1km 2km FIGURE 12.3 CO2 can be sequestered in deep underground geological formations (Courtesy of Rubin E et  al., IPCC special report: Carbon dioxide capture and storage technical summary, http:// www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srccs/srccs_technicalsummary.pdf, 2011.) The development of climate models: Past, present, and future Mid-1970s Mid-1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Present day Near future Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface Ocean and sea ice Ocean and sea ice Ocean and sea ice Ocean and sea ice Sulfate aerosol Sulfate aerosol Sulfate aerosol Non-Sulfate aerosol Non-Sulfate aerosol Carbon cycle Carbon cycle Dynamic vegetation Ocean and sea ice model Atmospheric chemistry Sulfur cycle model Non-Sulfate aerosols Land surface Carbon cycle model Atmosphere Dynamic vegetation Dynamic vegetation Atmospheric chemistry Atmospheric chemistry Atmospheric chemistry FIGURE 13.1 The evolution of climate models beginning in the mid-1970s and extending into the near future (From Casper, J K., Global Warming Climate Management: Solving the Problem, Facts on File, New York, 2010.) Horizontal grid (latitude – longitude) Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 Vertical grid (height or pressure) Physical processes in a model Solar Terrestrial radiation radiation Atmosphere Advection Snow Momentum Heat Water Continent Sea ice Mixed layer ocean Advection Ocean FIGURE 13.2 A climate model is comprised of a set of x/y/z points placed around the globe at specified intervals in a netlike structure, called its resolution A small grid with lots of points close together has a high resolution and is more detailed; a large grid with points spread farther apart has a low resolution and less detail In the model, each point x/y/z intersection has a value associated with it—one value for each variable represented in the model In this example, each grid point would have a distinct value for solar radiation, terrestrial radiation, heat, water, advection, atmosphere, and so on (From Casper, J K., Global Warming Climate Management: Solving the Problem, Facts on File, New York, 2010.) Mean doqq1 (NN) [39.0 - 167.0] StdDev.: 27.37 [125.0 - 182.0] StdDev.: 12.69 0.0 31.9 63.8 95.6 127.5 159.4 191.3 223.1 255.0 Overlap : 0.05 Mean doqq2 (NN) [33.0 - 167.0] StdDev.: 25.06 [120.0 - 180.0] StdDev.: 12.32 Overlap : 0.04 0.0 31.9 63.8 95.6 127.5 159.4 191.3 223.1 255.0 0.0 31.9 63.8 95.6 127.5 159.4 191.3 223.1 255.0 Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 0.0 68.5 137.0 205.5 274.0 342.5 411.0 479.5 548.0 0.0 Mean doqq3 (NN) [31.0 - 154.0] StdDev.: 21.74 [111.0 - 167.0] StdDev.: 12.36 Overlap : 0.03 Mean aspect (NN) [27.9 - 322.4] StdDev.: 71.59 [144.0 - 346.0] StdDev.: 44.71 Overlap : 0.29 Mean elevation (NN) [1819.7 - 2836.6] StdDev.: 173.41 [1512.0 - 1940.2] StdDev.: 98.10 Overlap : 0.04 426.5 853.0 1279.5 1706.0 2132.5 2559.0 2985.5 3412.0 Mean landsat1 (NN) [64.0 - 108.0] StdDev.: 10.58 [102.0 - 127.0] StdDev.: 4.97 Overlap : 0.05 0.0 31.9 63.8 95.6 127.5 159.4 191.3 223.1 255.0 0.0 31.9 63.8 95.6 127.5 159.4 191.3 223.1 255.0 0.0 31.9 63.8 95.6 127.5 159.4 191.3 223.1 255.0 0.0 30.9 61.8 92.6 123.5 154.4 185.3 216.1 247.0 Mean landsat2 (NN) [50.0 - 98.0] StdDev.: 11.15 [90.0 - 119.0] StdDev.: 6.02 Overlap : 0.02 Mean landsat3 (NN) [44.0 - 116.0] StdDev.: 16.77 [107.0 - 151.0] StdDev.: 9.45 Overlap : 0.00 Mean landsat4 (NN) [46.5 - 77.5] StdDev.: 6.16 [63.0 - 85.2] StdDev.: 6.15 Overlap : 0.17 Mean landsat5 (NN) [43.0 - 140.0] StdDev.: 20.77 [142.0 - 187.0] StdDev.: 8.90 0.0 31.9 63.8 95.6 127.5 159.4 191.3 223.1 255.0 Overlap : 0.00 Mean landsat6 (NN) FIGURE 13.6 The top portion illustrates how the different classes are determined during a classification relying on spectral signatures In this more complicated approach, classes are determined by finding natural breaks in spectral signatures and fitting curves to the resultant spectral data The bottom approach is another option used that is less complicated, called supervised classification, in which field data points of known information are identified on the digital map and attributed Once those have been coded, the image-processing software will compare the spectral signatures of all the other pixels to the known ones and group them according to those that are most similar Both approaches were used in the project Imagery and data collection Collect imagery and thematic data Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 AVHRR/ MODIS1 km SPOT, QuickBird, Ikonos: ½20 m Landsat 30 m Assess existing ReGAP data Remote control balloon: Sub-meter NAIP 1m Image preprocessing Thematic data Vegetation Slope Fire perimeter Soils/erosion Weeds/invasive species Bare ground Annual AVHRR/Modis map created to establish greenness/ drought trend Rainfall Geology Fire rehab data Hydrology Elevation Image and ancillary data entered into eCognition for segmentation Building a multi-scale image base Segmentation exported to ArcMap Sites selected for field sampling and data collected Classification in eCognition Analysis Segmentation Rerun if accuracy is inadequate Accuracy verification If accuracy is adequate, calculate statistics Compare to previous inventories and run change detection algorithms Output monitoring reports and analysis FIGURE 13.7 Summary of the range-monitoring process It is imperative to have a working model in place before beginning a project of this nature to avoid costly or repetitive mistakes Downloaded by [National Taiwan Ocean University] at 00:55 11 December 2014 Per capita responsibility for current anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere No data Lowest responsibility Highest responsibility FIGURE 14.2 This map shows the per capita responsibility for GHGs worldwide In many cases, the largest offenders are often the most wealthy, industrialized nations that are likely to encounter the least in losses overall because they have many of the resources necessary to mitigate the negative effects Unfortunately, the countries that are likely to encounter the greatest losses are the undeveloped countries and those located close to sea level that have not contributed significantly to the climate change problem (From Casper, J K., Global Warming Climate Management: Solving the Problem, Facts on File, New York, 2010.)