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Edited by Nora Bensahel and Daniel L. Byman
Prepared for the
United States Air Force
Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited
R
Project AIR FORCE
The Future
Security Environment
in the Middle
East
Conflict, Stability, and Political Change
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Bensahel, Nora, 1971-
The future security environment in the Middle East : conflict, stability, and
political change / Nora Bensahel, Daniel L. Byman.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
“MR-1640.”
ISBN 0-8330-3290-9 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Middle East—Strategic aspects. 2. United States—Military policy. I.
Byman, Daniel, 1967– II.Title.
UA832.B45 2003
355' 033056—dc22
2003020980
iii
PREFACE
This collection of papers examines emerging security trends that will
shape the Persian Gulf in the coming years. The authors address a
number of topics that will affect regional security, including
prospects for economic and political reform, civil-military relations,
regime change, energy security, the spread of new information tech-
nologies, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The
volume aims to help policymakers and the public develop a better
understanding of the underlying issues at work in a region at the
forefront of concern today.
Readers of this report may also be interested in a related publication:
Daniel Byman and John R. Wise, The Persian Gulf in the Coming
Decade: Trends, Threats, and Opportunities, RAND Corporation, MR-
1528-AF, 2002. This volume examines likely challenges to U.S.
interests in the Persian Gulf region in the next decade, with principal
focus on the conventional military strength of Iran and Iraq, the
potential for subversion, and the social and economic weaknesses of
the regional states. (Research for MR-1528-AF was completed before
the September 11, 2001, attacks.)
The research reported here was sponsored by the Director of
Operational Plans, Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and
Space Operations (HQ USAF/XOX), and conducted within the
Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.
Comments are welcomed and may be addressed to the acting
Program Director, Alan Vick.
iv The Future Security Environment in the Middle East
RAND PROJECT AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation,
is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development
center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with in-
dependent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development,
employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future
aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs:
Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training;
Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about PAF is available on our web site at
http://www.rand.org/paf.
v
CONTENTS
Preface iii
Tables xi
Summary xiii
Acknowledgments xix
Chapter One
INTRODUCTION
Nora Bensahel and Daniel L. Byman 1
U.S. Interests in the Middle East 2
Countering Terrorism 2
Countering WMD Proliferation 3
Maintaining Stable Oil Supplies and Prices 3
Ensuring the Stability of Friendly Regimes 4
Ensuring Israel’s Security 4
Promoting Democracy and Human Rights 5
Potential Threats to U.S. Interests 7
A Changing Region 9
The Shadows of September 11 and the War Against Iraq 10
Report Objectives and Structure 11
Chapter Two
POLITICAL REFORM IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Nora Bensahel 15
U.S. Interests in Middle Eastern Political Reform 17
Pressures for Political Reform in the Middle East 20
Economic Challenges 20
Demographic Trends 21
vi The Future Security Environment in the Middle East
Accountability and Corruption 23
Possible Regime Responses 24
Regional Trends 25
Democratization: Legislatures 25
Democratization: Consultative Councils 27
Liberalization: Political Parties 28
Liberalization: Civic Organizations 29
Liberalization: Freedom of the Press 32
Liberalization: The Judiciary and the Rule of Law 33
Survey of Key States 34
Egypt 35
Iran 39
Jordan 43
Kuwait 46
Saudi Arabia 48
Impact on U.S. Security Interests 52
Effect on Regional Stability 52
Sensitivity to U.S. Ties 55
Conclusion 55
Chapter Three
ECONOMIC REFORM IN THE MIDDLE EAST: THE
CHALLENGE TO GOVERNANCE
Alan Richards 57
The Key Economic Challenges Facing the Region 61
Restoring Economic Growth 61
Restraining Population Expansion 64
Providing Jobs 66
Alleviating Poverty 68
The Jungle of Cities 72
Saving Water 74
Obtaining Food 75
Attracting Money for Investment 76
Egypt 78
The Background of Reform 79
The Promise of Reform 81
The Performance 82
The Political Economy of “Creeping Cronyism” 86
Jordan 89
Economic Reform in Jordan 95
Crafting Credible Reforms 96
Contents vii
Iran 99
Saudi Arabia 107
The Development of a State-Centered Political
Economy 110
Pressures for Reform 111
Further Obstacles to the Reform Process 114
Syria 117
Riding the Roller Coaster of Rents 119
The Limits of Reform 122
Implications 124
Relatively Advanced Countries 124
Low-Income Countries 126
Oil-Rich Countries 126
Conclusion 128
Chapter Four
CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Risa Brooks 129
From Coups to Stability 130
The Ingredients of Political Control 132
Social Support 132
Stacking the Deck 133
Servicing the Military Constituency 134
Internal Security Agencies 135
Dual Militaries 136
Size 138
Institutional Tactics 138
Leader Incentives 139
Political Control and Military Effectiveness 141
Command and Control 141
Leadership 144
Intelligence and Information 146
Potential Offsets to Politicization 147
Centralized Command Structures 148
Technology 148
Specialization and the Internal/External Division of
Labor 150
International Factors 152
The Unconventional Alternative 152
Potential Challenges to Civil-Military Relations 153
Implications for the United States 159
viii The Future Security Environment in the Middle East
Chapter Five
THE IMPLICATIONS OF LEADERSHIP CHANGE IN THE
ARAB WORLD
Daniel L. Byman 163
Parameters of Regime Change 166
Categories of Regime Change 167
Leadership Change in Saudi Arabia 168
Change Within the Al Saud 169
Constants in Saudi Society 173
Saudi Islamists 174
Geopolitical Constants 176
Implications 176
Leadership Change in Syria 177
Bashar Versus Hafez 178
A Shift from Bashar to Other Domestic Actors 181
Geopolitical Constants 183
Implications 184
Leadership Change in Egypt 185
Change Within the Egyptian Elite 185
Geopolitical and Societal Constants 187
The Islamist Alternative 188
Implications 190
Preparing for Regime Change 192
Potential Risks and Opportunities 192
Recommendations 193
Chapter Six
ENERGY AND MIDDLE EASTERN SECURITY: NEW
DIMENSIONS AND STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
Ian O. Lesser 197
World Energy Trends and the Energy Security Debate 200
The Outlook for Oil Supply and Price 202
The Aftermath of September 11 and the War in Iraq 204
Changing Patterns of Dependence 205
Emerging Issues 208
The Rise of Gas 208
New Lines of Communication for Oil 213
“Rogue” (or Isolated) States, Sanctions, and Energy
Supply 214
Arms and Oil 216
Contents ix
Energy Prices, Regime Stability, and Military
Potential 218
Energy Denial as an Asymmetric Strategy 219
Transatlantic and Asian Perspectives 222
Conclusions and Policy Implications 223
Chapter Seven
THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION AND THE MIDDLE
EAST
Jon B. Alterman 227
A Richer Information Environment 228
Newspapers 228
Television 231
A Wide Spectrum of Content 235
The Internet 236
The Rise of Mid-Technology 238
Greater Information Diversity and Access 239
Limited Assimilation of High-Technology 240
Implications 243
New Mass Politics 243
Challenges for Regional Governments 245
Implications for the United States 247
Chapter Eight
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN THE MIDDLE
EAST: PROLIFERATION DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC
CONSEQUENCES
Ian O. Lesser 253
Assessing Recent Trends 257
Algeria 259
Libya 259
Egypt 261
Israel 262
Syria 263
Iran 264
Saudi Arabia 265
Transforming Developments and Synergies 265
Proliferation Motives and Internal Dynamics 268
The Search for Weight and Prestige 268
Countering Western Superiority 271
x The Future Security Environment in the Middle East
Indigenous Development and International Trade 273
Institutional and Domestic Factors 275
Regional Dynamics 277
Geography Matters 277
North-South Frictions and Regional Balances 279
The Arab-Israeli Conflict 281
Gulf Security 283
North Africa 284
Extraregional Dynamics 285
The Russian Factor 286
China and North Korea 288
India, Pakistan, and Proliferation Alliances 289
Implications for European Security 291
A World of Defenses: Implications for the Middle East 293
Conclusions and Policy Implications 296
Chapter Nine
CONCLUSIONS
Nora Bensahel, Daniel L. Byman, and
Negeen Pegahi 299
Tensions Affecting U.S. Foreign Policy 299
Stability Versus Political Reform 300
Regimes Versus Populations 301
Emerging Challenges 303
Political Challenges 303
Military Challenges 305
Key Uncertainties 307
The Price of Oil 307
The Future of Iraq 309
The Arab-Israeli Conflict 310
The Policies of Russia and China 312
The Nature of Regime Change 314
Final Words 315
Bibliography 317
[...]... interests U.S INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST The United States has many vital and enduring interests in the Middle East 1 Six important U.S interests include countering terrorism, countering WMD proliferation, maintaining stable oil supplies and prices, ensuring the stability of friendly regimes, ensuring Israel’s security, and promoting democracy and human rights Countering Terrorism After the devastating September... political instability in the region could hurt economies around the world EMERGING TRENDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION What are the prospects for political security in the Middle East in the foreseeable future? RAND Project AIR FORCE studied current political, economic, and social trends in the Middle East to forecast future threats to regional security and their potential impact on the. .. individual states xiii xiv The Future Security Environment in the Middle East POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST COULD HAVE SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES FOR THE UNITED STATES Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the Middle East has played a more prominent role in U.S policy than ever before The United States relies on Middle Eastern partners such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and. .. Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union competed fiercely for influence, arming their proxies and backing their causes In the 1990s, however, Russia, China, and the major European powers limited their involvement, largely confining themselves to commercial transactions, including arms sales During the coming years, the possible emergence of China as a world power and perhaps renewed competition... of Economics and Environmental Studies at the University of California, Santa Cruz xix Chapter One INTRODUCTION Nora Bensahel and Daniel L Byman The security environment in the Middle East has become increasingly complicated during the past decade Up to and including the 1991 Gulf War, the regional environment was largely shaped by fears of interstate aggression, either by superpower intervention or... (WMD) continue to spread throughout the region, despite international nonproliferation efforts Terrorists recruited and trained in the Middle East are now carrying out attacks far beyond their own borders, creating strong global interests in countering the sources of this phenomenon Many of these security issues are profoundly affected by the many domestic changes occurring in the Middle East A new... expectations and population growth New information technologies are providing ordinary citizens with a wider range of 1 2 The Future Security Environment in the Middle East viewpoints than they have ever had before, while in a few states, attempts at political reform are increasing their ability to express their views and influence the decisionmaking process This report seeks to identify the trends that... capabilities within the next decade Continued proliferation of WMD in the Middle East would have serious implications both within the region and around the world The geographical distance between adversaries in the Middle East is very short States would not need long-range delivery systems to inflict sudden and catastrophic damage upon each other The expansion of WMD capability in the Middle East would also... undergoing the transition to democracy are more likely to become involved in conflicts with their neighbors Moreover, democratization in the Middle East could open the door to nationalist or fundamentalist groups that are op- xviii The Future Security Environment in the Middle East posed to U.S interests In the past, when faced with a choice between preserving the stability of a nondemocratic ally and. .. may therefore be less willing to continue unpopular policies such as cooperat- xvi The Future Security Environment in the Middle East ing with the U.S war on terrorism or supporting Arab concessions to Israel in future peace negotiations Furthermore, inexperienced leaders will be more likely to make mistakes in foreign policy, whether by overestimating their countries’ military strength, by believing . Cataloging -in- Publication Data Bensahel, Nora, 197 1- The future security environment in the Middle East : conflict, stability, and political change / Nora Bensahel, Daniel L. Byman. p. cm. Includes. behavior by individual states. xiv The Future Security Environment in the Middle East POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST COULD HAVE SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES FOR THE UNITED STATES Since the terrorist. 15 U.S. Interests in Middle Eastern Political Reform 17 Pressures for Political Reform in the Middle East 20 Economic Challenges 20 Demographic Trends 21 vi The Future Security Environment in the Middle
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