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Demographic Research a free, expedited, online journal
of peer-reviewed research and commentary
in the population sciences published by the
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www.demographic-research.org
DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH
VOLUME 5, ARTICLE 5, PAGES 125-186
PUBLISHED 28 NOVEMBER 2001
www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol5/5/
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2001.5.5
Cohort reproductive patterns in the
Nordic countries
Tomas Frejka
Gérard Calot
© 2001 Max-Planck-Gesellschaft.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction 126
2 General features of the social and economic
environment in the Nordic countries
127
3 Cohort fertility in the Nordic countries 128
4 Public policies and fertility in the Nordic countries 136
5 Achieving desired goals 137
6 Concluding remarks 139
Notes 140
References 141
A.1 Appendix 1. Denmark 143
A.2 Appendix 2. Finland 153
A.3 Appendix 3. Norway 168
A.4 Appendix 4. Sweden 178
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Cohort reproductive patterns in the Nordic countries
Tomas Frejka
1
Gérard Calot
2
Abstract
Total fertility rates were declining from peaks experienced by early 1930s cohorts for
20 successive cohorts. The decline ceased among the 1950s and 1960s cohorts, because
fertility deficits of young women were compensated with increased fertility when
women reached their late twenties and thirties. The relative stability of completed
fertility of these cohorts is attributed to Nordic social policies. Fertility deficits of
young women in 1970s cohorts are comparatively large. For their completed fertility to
be similar to that of earlier ones, there is considerably more catching up to do. What
remains an open issue is whether social policies will be sufficiently effective for
couples born in the late 1960s and the 1970s to have births not born earlier in their
lives.
1
International Consultant, Visiting Scholar at the Max-Planck-Institute for Demographic Research,
Germany. Email: Tfrejka@aol.com
2
(Former) Director, L’Observatoire Démographique Européen, France. (deceased, March 2001)
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1. Introduction
A number of studies have revealed that reproductive patterns of the populations of the
Nordic countries in many ways resemble those of other European countries, but that
they also have numerous distinctive features (see, for instance, Chesnais 1992; Coale
and Watkins 1986; Katus 1997). Not surprisingly, the authors of this paper came to the
same conclusion during the past one and a half years while working on an extensive
project (Note 1) exploring in detail cohort fertility behavior in approximately 30
populations of Europe, North America, Oceania and East Asia (Note 2). The rationale
for the project, its principal content, methods, a general overview of trends in cohort
fertility, three abbreviated examples of country analyses and preliminary conclusions
were published in Frejka, Calot (2001), a paper briefly summarized below. The
principal objective of the present paper is to describe and analyze the idiosyncrasies as
well as the common features of cohort fertility developments in the four large Nordic
countries of Europe: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden within the context of the
overarching project. The paper is a modified version of what will be the section on the
Nordic countries in a forthcoming book.
The rationale for the project derives from the fact that during the past several
decades relatively limited attention has been devoted to cohort fertility behavior. In part
that was due to a scarcity of long enough time series of appropriate data. As many of
the low fertility countries have been accumulating sufficiently detailed data at least
since the middle of the 20
th
century, if not longer, reasonably comprehensive cohort
fertility analyses can now be conducted. It was assumed that such investigations will
provide meaningful complementary knowledge to the existing huge body of research on
period fertility levels and trends.
The analytical methods are designed to make cohort analysis an appropriate tool
for capturing not only past but also contemporary fertility behavior. In distinction to
previous such analyses, the project complements data for cohorts that have reached the
end of their reproductive period with estimates of total cohort fertility rates (TCFRs) for
cohorts that were in their forties, possibly late thirties. Such estimates are made with the
qualification that only less than 15 percent of the estimated TCFR needs to be estimated
(Note 3). Furthermore, the analysis encompasses cohort fertility of women starting out
on, or proceeding through, their reproductive behavior paths. Finally, the study analyzes
cohort parity distributions and parity progression ratios, again to the extent reasonable
employing estimates, and among women who are at the onset or in the middle of their
reproductive periods.
In general, levels, trends and age patterns of cohort fertility for the generations
born between 1930 and 1960 in “western” societies differed from those in the formerly
socialist ones. In most western countries the decline of completed cohort fertility has
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been in progress starting with cohorts born in the 1930s and the generations born
around 1960 are likely to complete their fertility with values decidedly below the
replacement level. Cohorts born in the 1940s and mainly in the 1950s, increasingly
postponed child-bearing, i. e. their fertility was relatively low while they were in their
early to mid-twenties and high when in their late twenties and thirties. In some
countries only a part of the accumulated early fertility deficit was later compensated. In
the formerly socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, completed cohort
fertility remained within narrow bands, usually around the replacement level, and was
relatively steady among the cohorts born in the 1930s until the cohorts of the late
1950s. In comparison to the West, the lowering of fertility at younger ages started with
cohorts born later, namely with those born in the late 1950s and early 1960s. The
fertility deficit at younger ages is pronounced for the cohorts born in the 1960s.
In almost all industrialized and post-industrial societies cohorts born during the
1960s and in the 1970s are experiencing lower fertility up to comparable ages than
previous cohorts. It is likely that a part of the deficits of the cohorts born in the mid- to
late 1960s and in the 1970s will be compensated when these women will be older,
however, it is equally likely that it will be only a relatively small fraction of the deficits
that will be compensated. Consequently, it is almost certain that completed cohort
fertility of the generations born during the 1960s and 1970s will be lower than for
previous ones, i.e. their TCFRs will most likely be considerably below the replacement
level. The parity distribution of children of successive cohorts is changing in favor of
childlessness and increasing proportions of women who are having only one or two
children.
The features and trends of cohort fertility behavior tend to differ regionally. One
group of countries, which differs in specific ways from the others, is the region of the
Nordic countries. An important distinctive feature of the Nordic countries is that the
cohorts of women born in the 1950s and around 1960 actually compensated the entire
fertility deficit accumulated when they were young. In the remainder of this paper we
will analyze the cohort fertility behavior of this region. In the appendices 1 to 4 cohort
fertility trends of the individual countries are analyzed.
2. General features of the social and economic environment in the
Nordic countries
At the end of the 20
th
century the inhabitants of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden
were among the wealthiest, healthiest, best educated, and experiencing the most
favorable political and social conditions in the world. Their economies were modern
and their people were enjoying relatively high incomes, between $20,000 and 25,000 of
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gross domestic product per person in purchasing power parity. Their infant mortality
rate was around 4 deaths per 1000 live births, female life expectancy at birth was
around 80 and male life expectancy about 75 years. An Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (2000) survey ranked Sweden, Denmark and Norway in
the first to third places and Finland in the 7
th
place with respect to adult literacy and
skill levels among 20 of the most advanced countries. While these societies no doubt
have a modicum of political tensions and problems they are among the best functioning
and efficient democracies. The social welfare systems, although having been questioned
as possibly excessive, were such that according to a UNICEF (2000) report these
countries had the lowest levels of relative child poverty in the world with Sweden,
Norway and Finland in the first to third places and Denmark in the sixth. These
countries are also renowned as being the most gender egalitarian societies. More than in
any other parts of the world, men participate in child-rearing and household activities.
Most women, including those who have small children, tend to be employed outside the
home, often full-time, and more than in other countries women are politically active.
It is quite obvious that the Nordic countries enjoy economic, social and political
conditions more favorable and desirable than almost any other country in the world.
What kind of impact are these conditions having on contemporary reproductive patterns
and those of the recent past?
3. Cohort fertility in the Nordic countries
Fertility developments in each of the Nordic countries had their specifics and
idiosyncrasies (Note 4), but they also shared many common features. At the end of the
20
th
century the Nordic countries were at or close to their historic lows in period and
completed cohort fertility. Similarly to other low fertility countries, total cohort fertility
rates (TCFRs) were declining from the peak rates, typically experienced by the
generations born around 1930, i.e. those which started their childbearing during the first
years after the Second World War, for at least 20 successive cohorts (Table NC-1). The
TCFRs of the 1950-51 birth cohorts in the Nordic countries were lower than the TCFRs
of the 1930s birth cohorts by similar orders of magnitude as in many other countries.
Contrary to the other countries, however, cohort fertility did not continue its decline in
the Nordic countries among the cohorts of the 1950s. For instance, the total cohort
fertility rate in Denmark was identical for the 1950-51 and 1960-61 birth cohorts; in
Norway it was only one per cent lower in the 1960-61 compared to the 1950-51 cohort;
and in Finland and Sweden it was five and one per cent higher, respectively (Table NC-
1). In practically all the other low fertility countries the decrease of the TCFRs was
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maintained among the cohorts of the 1950s as shown by examples, which are
representative of groups of countries, listed in Table NC-1.
Table NC-1: Total cohort fertility rates, Nordic and selected "western" countries, birth
cohorts 1930-31, 1950-51 and 1960-61
Total cohort fertility rate (TCFR)
of birth cohort
Change of TCFR compared
to older cohort (in per cent)
Country
1930-31 1950-51 1960-61 1950-51/
1930-31
1960-61/
1950-51
Nordic countries
Denmark
2.37
1.90
1.90
- 20
-
Finland
2.45
1.85
1.94
- 24
+ 5
Norway
2.51
2.09
2.06
- 17
- 1
Sweden
2.13
2.01
2.02
- 6
+ 1
Selected "western" countries
Australia
3.06
2.33
2.12
- 24
- 9
England & Wales
2.35
2.05
1.94
- 13
- 5
Germany, ex-FR
2.15
1.69
1.59
- 21
- 6
Italy
2.27
1.86
1.61
- 18
- 13
The demographic mechanism which underlies the difference between the Nordic
countries and the other "Western" countries is the following. Starting with the cohorts
born in the 1940s there was a strong tendency to lower fertility at younger ages
practically in all "western" countries, including the Nordic ones. This propensity
persisted in almost all countries and was still evident among the cohorts born in the
early 1960s. Furthermore, a propensity to compensate at least part of the deficit (Note
5) when women reached their late twenties or thirties was also apparent. In no country,
however, did the cohorts of the 1940s fully make up the deficit which they incurred
when they were young.
The Nordic countries were unique because contrary to most other "western"
countries the birth cohorts of the 1950s actually caught up with the older ones. In
Denmark, for instance, by age 26 the 1960-61 birth cohort had incurred a deficit of 0.4
children compared to the 1950-51 cohort, but after that age the deficit was fully
eliminated (Tables DK-1 and NC-2 and Figure DK-5). Developments in Norway were
similar (Tables N-1 and NC-2 and Figure N-4). In Sweden the tendency to lower
fertility when women were young was not as strong as in Denmark and Norway. More
importantly, in Sweden the tendency to make up the birth deficit was already quite
forceful among the cohorts born during the 1940s and the cohorts of the 1950s made up
the whole deficit and even a little more (Tables S-1 and NC-2 and Figure S-5). In
Finland the propensity to lower births was notable among the cohorts of the 1940s and
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weakened among the 1950s cohorts. The net result was that, for example, the 1950-51
cohort made up about half of its deficit compared to the 1940-41 one (Tables F-1 and
NC-2 and Figure F-4); and the 1960-61 birth cohort made up about one and a half times
its deficit after age 26, but the deficit was comparatively small, only about 0.2 of a child
(Tables F-1 and NC-2 and Figure F-4).
Table NC-2: Net fertility deficits and surpluses comparing birth cohorts, Nordic and
selected "western" countries, cohorts 1930-31, 1940-41, 1950-51 and
1960-61 (in children per woman)
Net fertility deficit or surplus comparing
cohorts (children per woman)
Proportion of deficit made
up by surplus (percent)
Country
1930-31 and
1940-41
1940-41 and
1950-51
1950-51 and
1960-61
1950-51
cohort
1960-61
cohort
Nordic countries
Denmark - 0.141
- 0.328
- 0.001
11
100
Finland - 0.445
- 0.149
+ 0.087
48
147
Norway - 0.081
- 0.341
- 0.001
9
99
Sweden - 0.096
-0.030
+ 0.017
78
108
Selected "western" countries
Australia - 0.463
- 0.338
- 0.207
21
49
England & Wales - 0.022
- 0.279
- 0.108
21
55
Ex-FRG - 0.177
- 0.274
- 0.100
9
64
Italy - 0.164
- 0.252
- 0.243
n.
a.
24
What is the cohort fertility experience of the generations that are initiating their child
bearing or are in the middle of their reproductive years in the Nordic countries
compared to other "western" countries? The first row in Table NC-3 confirms the above
conclusion that the 1960-61 birth cohort in the Nordic countries attained the same or
even somewhat higher completed fertility as the cohort born 10 years earlier, which was
not the case in other countries. Already at age 36, the last year for which registration
data are available (in most countries) for the 1960-61 cohort, it was clear that this would
happen. In the Nordic countries the differences in cumulated cohort fertility rates
(CCFRs) of the 1960-61 cohort compared to the 1950-51 cohort for age 36 were around
zero, whereas in the other countries they were around minus 10 per cent (Table NC-3).
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Table NC-3: Difference in cumulated cohort fertility rates (CCFRs) compared to
cohorts born 10 years earlier, Nordic and selected "western" countries,
birth cohorts 1960-61, 1965-66, 1970-71 and 1975-76 (in per cent)
Difference in CCFR compared to cohort born 10 years earlier in per cent in
Nordic countries selected "western" countries
Birth
cohort Age
Den.
Finl.
Norw.
Swd.
Australia
Engl./
Wales
Ex-FRG
Italy
a
1960-61 36 - 2 + 3 - 2 + 1 - 11 - 7 - 8 - 13
1965-66 31
- 5
- 7
- 7
- 5
- 20
- 14
-18
- 26
1970-71 26
- 21
- 16
- 18
- 16
- 30
- 17
- 28
- 47
1975-76 21
- 15
- 17
- 26
- 31
- 19
0
+ 12
- 57
Estimate
1960
CCFR
50
1.90
1.94
2.09
2.02
2.12
1.94
1.59
1.61
Note: For Italy the birth cohorts are two years older in each row, namely 1958-59, 1963-64, 1968-69 and 1973-74 at ages 36, 31, 26
and 21, respectively.
The propensity for cohort fertility to catch up with older generations continued to be
much more pronounced in the Nordic countries compared to the other "western" ones
among the cohorts born in the early to mid-1960s. The differences between the CCFRs
of the 1965-66 birth cohorts compared to cohorts ten years older at age 31 were
between -5 and -7 percent in the Nordic countries, compared to between -14 and -26 in
the countries selected for comparison (Table NC-3).
The data for the cohorts born in the 1970s, which are embarking on their
reproductive experiences in the 1990s, have to be interpreted with great caution. What
appears to be clear is that the propensity for young women to have lower fertility
continues to be strong in the Nordic countries. At age 26 and at age 21 the CCFRs are
considerably lower than for the cohorts born ten years earlier in all the Nordic countries
(Table NC-3). Compared to the other countries, at age 26 the propensity to postpone
births appears even more pronounced elsewhere. At age 21, however, cumulated
fertility in England & Wales and in former West Germany appears to have bottomed
out and is no longer declining in the 1975-76 cohort. On the other hand, in Italy the
CCFR for the youngest cohort is much lower than for the cohort born ten years earlier.
Given the importance of the issue of likely future trends of fertility (period and
cohort), a more detailed analysis appears justified. That the fertility decline has been
considerable among the cohorts born during the late 1960s in the Nordic countries is
illustrated by the low level of cumulated fertility by age 26 in the 1970-71 cohorts. By
age 26 the 1970-71 birth cohorts in the Nordic countries had accumulated between 0.60
and 0.75 children per woman. The cumulated cohort fertility rates (CCFRs) at this age
were about 15 to 20 per cent lower than in the 1960-61 cohort and 30 to 50 per cent
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lower than in the 1950-51 generation (Table NC-4). The differences in CCFRs between
generations are somewhat smaller in the Nordic compared to the other "western"
countries. In absolute terms the level of cumulated fertility by age 26 is at a similar
level as in the other "western" countries and the differences between generations are
also quite comparable. Past experience indicates that these generations are likely to
have a propensity to bear a proportion of the children which were not born earlier. The
problem is that deficits recorded by the 1970-71 birth cohorts are considerably larger
than the equivalents for the 1960-61 cohorts. Therefore, if completed cohort fertility of
this generation is to be similar to that of the 1960-61 cohort, it has more catching up to
accomplish.
Table NC-4: Cumulated cohort fertility rates (CCFRs) at age 26, Nordic and selected
"western" countries, birth cohorts 1950-51, 1960-61 and 1970-71
CCFR of birth cohort
at age 26
Difference of CCFRs
between birth cohorts
(in per cent)
Difference of CCFRs
between birth cohorts
(in children per woman)
Country
1950-51
1960-61
1970-71
1960-61/
1950-51
1970-71/
1960-61
1970-71/
1950-51
1970-71/
1960-61
1970-71/
1950-51
Nordic countries
Denmark
1.143
0.761
0.600
- 33
- 21
- 48
- 0.16 - 0.54
Finland
0.946
0.761
0.638
- 20
- 16
- 33
- 0.12 - 0.31
Norway
1.258
0.908
0.743
- 28
- 18
- 41
- 0.17 - 0.52
Sweden
1.052
0.793
0.665
- 25
- 16
- 37
- 0.13 - 0.39
Selected "western" countries
Australia
1.349
0.918
0.646
- 32
- 30
- 52
- 0.27 - 0.70
England &
Wales
1.151
0.911
0.755
- 21
- 17
- 34
- 0.16 - 0.40
Ex-FRG
0.940
0.662
0.478
- 30
- 28
- 49
- 0.18 - 0.46
Italy
a
1.061
0.835
0.445
- 21
- 47
- 58
- 0.39 - 0.58
Note: a For Italy the birth cohorts are two years older, namely 1948-49, 1958-59 and 1968-69 in the respective columns.
The data in table NC-5 provide a somewhat different perspective on the issues
discussed above. In the first place, the data confirm that women born in the 1930s had
children earlier than previous cohorts. Thus the 1940-41 birth cohorts of the four
[...]... for the 1940-41 birth cohort and it will be around 29 for the generations born in the early 1960s The data available for the cohorts which are still at the beginning or in the middle of their childbearing years do indicate a decline in cohort fertility in the future (Table F2 and Figs F-4 and F-6) Given the experience of the birth cohorts of the 1950s which caught up with the fertility of earlier cohorts,... Concluding remarks In many respects cohort reproductive behavior in the Nordic countries is similar to that in other "Western" countries The exception were the cohorts born during the 1950s and early 1960s which also had relatively low fertility when young but made up the whole deficit when they were in their late twenties and in their thirties To date the reproductive behavior of the youngest cohorts,... before completed age 26 in the 1940-41 cohorts compared to the 1930-31 cohorts These were the generations that brought about the mid-century baby booms Arguably even more remarkable is the stark decline in the proportions born before completed age 26 experienced mainly by the cohorts born in the 1950s Basically in all the Nordic countries there was a reversal in the value of the proportions born before... Geneva: United Nations Taking the relative success of the cohorts born around 1960 in achieving replacement level fertility, the Nordic countries fared much better (Table NC-8) The total cohort fertility rates of the 1960 generation in the Nordic countries were lower than replacement fertility in the order of 1 to 7 percent, whereas in the majority of the other countries the relative difference from... completed fertility of the generations of the 1950s The propensity to postpone births continues to be displayed by the cohorts which were at the beginning of their childbearing periods during the 1990s In figures DK-5 and DK-6 one can see that the 1970-71 cohort is on a childbearing path lower than that of the older generations and there is a first indication that the 1975-76 cohort is aiming for an even... with the reliable estimate for the women born in 1960-61 being about 1.95, but thereafter it appears that a slight decline is again setting in A detailed analysis of the rapid decline of cohort fertility between the generations of the early 1920s and those of the late 1940s, and then the stabilization around 1.9 through the cohorts of the early 1960s, reveals considerable changes in the lifetime age patterns. .. then rise above the base line of the 1950-51 cohort This indicates that the younger cohorts made up all the births they postponed up to their mid-twenties, and that their total cohort fertility rates will be higher than the base line, even though only marginally The pronounced changes in the age patterns of fertility are also expressed in the notable changes of the average age of childbearing over time... The rather marked continuing trend of increasing childlessness in Finland is apparent in the curves for all ages in Figure F-10 A comparison with other selected countries illustrates that trends in childlessness in Finland were similar to those in the Netherlands Trends in Norway resembled somewhat trends in the United States In selected Central and East European countries trends in childlessness were... percent of the total to below 10 percent Women with no more than one child at first increased These reached a peak with the birth cohorts of the mid-1940s and have since declined The largest increase was among women of parity 2 These increased from 23 percent among women of the birth cohorts of the mid-1920s to 39 percent among the women of the mid-1940s Since then they have been mildly declining The proportions... correlation between the value of cumulated fertility at age 26 with the eventual total fertility rate of the respective cohort? The experience of the 1950-51 and the 1960-61 birth cohorts indicates that there is no such correlation between the two measures In all the Nordic countries the TCFR of the 1960-61 cohort was either the same or even slightly higher than that of the 1950-51 cohort (Table NC-1), . the other countries, however, cohort fertility did not continue its decline in
the Nordic countries among the cohorts of the 1950s. For instance, the total. is the cohort fertility experience of the generations that are initiating their child
bearing or are in the middle of their reproductive years in the Nordic
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