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Thanks to the agreement of Vietnam National University of Forestry, Forest Resources, and Environment Management, we conduct scientific research: “Assess the vulnerability of the mangrove ecosystem to climate changes impacts in Xuan Thuy National Park”
Recognizing the importance of protecting and developing the diversity of ecosystems in Xuan Thuy National Park in in the era of climate change, we carried out research on: "The vulnerability assessment of Xuan Thuy national park climate change on mangrove forest in Xuan Thuy National Park"
KEY WORD: Climate change, CAM method, qualitative, Xuan Thuy National Park
There are 2 main approaches:
The World Bank project focuses on assessing vulnerability to climate change for the aquaculture sector in Vietnam. In the conceptual model, vulnerability index is based on four factors (Allison model):
All of the variables in vulnerability indices are normalized to a range of 0 to 100. The values of each variable are normalized to the range of values in the data set by applying the following general formula:
The vulnerability index is calculated from the equation as follows:
From this definition, there are 2 main concerns: system 3 types of factors involve in vulnerability-assessment process:
The CAM process illustrated includes five primary steps for adaptation planning including:
• Determining the project scope, by identifying the geographic and sector focus of the assessment and the systems (natural, social, economic, institutional and built) which will be impacted. Or and addressing their specific sensitivities and adaptive capacity
This method is a qualitative method or the assessment base on researcher opinions ad experiences. There are 2 kinds of evidences to prove and explain these opinions:
3.2.3 Impact and vulnerability assessing
Method of vulnerability qualitative by matrix: refer to ICEM
Impact is identified by the matrix:
Exposure of system to climate threat
Sensitivity of system to climate threat
Vulnerability index is calculated from equation as follows:
It can be said that water source in Xuan Thuy National Park plays such an important role in maintaining the ecosystem as well as the recent economic development in the local region. Studying the effective and sustainable integrated water use in this area is essential because of the following main reasons:
5.1.1 Baseline and change in precipitation
5.1.2 Baseline and change in temperature
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