KINH TE - PHAP LUAT CHAU AU DONG CUR TR6N THj TRUdNG TRI CHINH QUOC T€ Hlf N NRV: vi TH€'VR CRC Vl'u TO RNH HUdNG Ths. Nguyen Thi Vu Ha - Nguyen Thanh Hue Trir&ng Dai hoc Kinh te - Dai hoc Qude gia Hd Noi Su ra ddi cua ddng EUR dem da den hy vgng ve mot cue tien te du manh de duy tri sir can bang cua he thdng tai ehinh - tien te the gidi, von le thugc qua muc vao ddng USD ke tu sau hdi nghi Bretton Wood. Tuy nhien, cuoc khiing hoang ng cdng chau Au hien nay da khiln dilu nay bi nghi ngd. Vay tren thuc tl, EUR CO vi the nhu the nao tren cac thi trudng tai chinh qude te, dac biet la sau cude khung hoang kinh te toan ciu nam 2007 - 2008 va vi thi cua ddng tien nay chiu sir chi phii cua nhung ylu td nao? Bai vilt sau day nhim muc dich tra Idi hai cau hdi neu tren. L Vi the cua dong EUR tren cac thi trudng tai chinh quoc te • Tren thi tru&ng ngogi hoi KI tu khi chinh thue luu hanh din nay, ding EUR luon chilm mot ty trgng khoang 37-38% tren thi trudng ngoai hdi va chi diing vi tri thu hai sau ddla My. Cude khung hoang tai chinh d My culi nam 2007 da khiln cho ty trgng cua EUR tren thi trudng ngoai hii tang len dang kl (hon 40% tu culi nam 2007 din culi nam 2009). Gia tri cac ' Thj trudng t^i chinh cju6c it bao g6m: Thj trudmg ngoai h6i, thj truemg tien t? qu6c tg, thi trufifng tin dyng quoc te, thj tnrdmg trii phi^u qu6c xk vi thi tnifmg churng khoin qu6c te. giao dich cd lien quan den EUR khi quy ve USD tang len ttr 1.232 ty USD nam 2007 din hon 1.556 ty USD nam 2010 (tuong duomg vdi mGc tang la 26,3%)^. Tuy nhien khiing hoang ng cdng d chau Au da khien cho ty trgng cua ddng tien cua khu vuc nay bi sut giam xudng dudi 40% (tinh den thang 4 nam 2010 la 39%). Trong hoat ddng phai sinh lien quan den trao doi ngoai hdi, vi the cua EUR va USD ludn van dgng ngugc chieu nhau mot each rd net. Cu thi la kl tii khi chinh thuc luu hanh tren thi trudng, vi the cua dong EUR tien gan sat nhat vdi vi the cua ddng USD, nhung cang ve sau thi vi the cua hai ddng tien cang each xa nhau theo chieu hudng ddng EUR ngay cang giam dan vi the cua minh. Cu the la vao nam 2001, ty trgng cua EUR chilm hon 50% cac ddng tien trong giao dich ngoai hoi phai sinh, nhung den nam 2009, con sd nay chi con khoang 40%. Ngugc lai vdi hoat ddng phai sinh lien quan den trao ddi ngoai hoi, hoat dgng phai sinh lien quan den lai suat ghi nhan mot sir vugt len cua dong EUR. Ty le giao dich bang ddng EUR la 39,1%, trong khi ty le cac giao ^ BIS, 2010, Foreign exchange and derivatives market activity in April 2010. 46 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU • EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°07 (130).2011 dich bang USD d miic la 34,1% (thap hon 5% so vdi EUR). Tuy nhien, gia tri cac giao dich bang ddng USD cd xu hudng tang ke tu nam 2000 trong khi gia tri cac giao dich bang ddng EUR lai giam ddi chut vao nam 2007. Gia tri giao dich bang Yen Nhat da giam dan sau khi tang len cao nhat vao dau 2007. Khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau nam 2007- 2008 da khien cho vi the cua ddng EUR cai thien dan so vdi day vao nam 2007, tuy nhien muc do tang ty trgng cua EUR trong cac hoat ddng phai sinh lai suat cdn thap. Ty trong cac dong tien (%) Dola My EUR Yen Nhat Bang Anh 2001 89.9 37.9 23.5 13.0 2004 88.0 37.4 20.8 18.5 2007 85.6 37.0 17.2 14.9 2010 84.9 39.1 19.0 12.9 Ngudn: BIS, 2010, Foreign exchange derivatives market activity in April 2010. * S6 lieu dugc \ky vio thang 4 hing nSm. and __ USD EUR — JPY GBP Ty trgng c&c dong tien giai do^n 2006 - 2009 70 60 50 30 — 20, ^;:^ O - Tai Jiuy Jan. July Jan. July Jaik. Jvty Ngudn: The international role of the Euro. 2010. USD EUR JPY Ty trgng c^c d6ng tien trong giao djch ngo^i lioi phai sinh (%) Cic dong tien khiic (die nirfrc piiit trign) Ciic dong tien IcIiAc (cic nvtifc DPT) 199» 2001 2003 20QS 2007 2009 Ngudn: The international role of the Euro, 2010. 70 60 50 40 30 20 Y" 10 1999 Ty trpng cac dong tien. trong ho^t dpng phai sinh ^~ USD EUR *.,„,. "" JPY lai suat (%) ^~~ Cic dong tiln Idiic (cic niriv pliit Irien) Cic dong tiin khii (cic aain DPT) I ''' ••>•••. ,^ .* •' * " ' 2001 2003 2003 2007 2009 Ngudn: The international role of the Euro, 2010. ^D0*ig ^(Jldl trin thi trttdng. tai ehinh Al • Tren thi trir&ng tiin t^ quoc te Thi trudng tien te quIc tl giao djch chii ylu vdi 3 dong tien chinh la USD, EUR va Yen Nhat, trong do USD chiem ty trgng Idn nhSt, xoay quanh miic tren 50% tir nam 1999 den nam 2005. Din nam 2006, ty trgng USD tang dan, len miic cao nhat (60%) vao giai doan cuoi nam 2007, dau nam 2008. Ngugc lai vdi xu hudng do, ty trgng cua dong EUR tir khi ra ddi den nam 2003 giii d miic 30% nhung sau do giam dan va xuIng miic thap nhat (20%) vao khoang culi nam 2007. Gia tri cac khoan tien giii bSng Yen Nhat In djnh d miic 5% trong suit khoang thdi gian tir 1999 - 2008 va c6 sir giam siit sau cuoc khung hoang toan cau. Nguyen nhan ciia sir van dgng ngugc chilu trong ty le cac khoan tien giii dinh danh bang USD va EUR la do trong giai doan culi nam 2007, dSu nam 2008 EUR da giam gia so vdi USD xuong con 1 EUR = 1,4349 USD (20/12/2007) va 1 EUR = 1,4482 USD (21/01/2008)^ lam giam cac khoan tien gui bang EUR va tang cac khoan tiln gui bang USD dii lai suat cac khoan tien giii bang EUR hip din hon so vdi cac khoan tien giii bing USD. Tir cuoi nam 2008 den dau nam 2009, khiing hoang kinh te bat dau bung no d My da lam USD giam vi the so vdi EUR. Cu the la trong giai doan nay, tren thj trudng tiln te, ty trong cua USD da giam xuIng dudi miic 60% trong khi ty trgng cua EUR da tang len miic khoang 23%. Tuy nhien, kl tir culi nam 2009, khi FED dua ra nhiing chinh sach hieu qua giiip nIn kinh tl My phuc hIi trd lai va dau hieu ve mot cuoc khung hoang ng cong chau Au ngay cang ro net da lam giam vi the cua EUR. Ty trgng cua EUR tren thj trudng nay vao cuoi nam 2009 chi con giii d miic 22%^. http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/euro fcref-praph-usd.en.html " ECB (2008, 2009, 2010), The international role of the EURO, http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/html/index.en.html 48 NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°07 (130).20n So iirgng Gia tr| cac khoan tien gui dirgrc dinh danh bang cac dong tien Thi phan CUSD bflli<mi> USD EUR JFY o&er 7,000 6,000 5,000 4.000 3,000 2,000 1,000 O i|||;![fU ifllilli I (peicepCTgea; at oonstant eKcliaxi£e zates) — USD EtXR. —— JFY ^ **- 1999 2001 2003 J £-_ ^ 2003 2007 2009 Ngudn: The international role of the EURO, 2010. • Tren thi trudng tin dung quoc te Ke tir khi EUR ra ddi den nay, ty trgng cac dong tien tren thj trudng cho vay kha on dinh (ty trgng ciia USD xoay quanh mure 50%; EUR xoay quanh miic 20% va Yen Nhat chilm dudi 10%) trir mot sir bien dgng dang ke vao nam 2006. Nam 2006, ty trgng USD tang len khoang 55% trong khi ty trgng EUR va Yen Nhat giam doi chiit. Dieu nay la do chi phi di vay bing USD thSp hon so vdi chi phi di vay bing EUR da thiic day viec di vay bing USD. Chenh lech lai suat ciia cac khoan vay bang USD va EUR nam 2006 theo ky han 1 thang, 3 thang, 6 thang va mot nam luon nam trong khoang 1.6% din 2%. Gia tri cac khoan cho vay qua bien gidi tinh theo cac dong tien Sd lirgrng Thi philn CUSD billions) Cperce^ilasei^ 34 coBstaaxt exchaOLSe rates) USD EUR JPY otbjsr 8,000 7.000 6,000 S,000 4.000 3,000 2,000 1.000 0 111 I [I ill — USD EUR JPY 8,000 7,000 6,000 3,000 4.000 3,000 2,000 1.000 0 SO 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 „ 1 r i I ! ( •-^ 80 ssis^ 60 30 m^ 20 Ngudn: The international role of the Euro, 2010 fDeng l^Qldl triri thi tru'd^ng tai ehinh 49 Chenh lech lai suat cac khoan vay bing USD va EUR nam 2006 1thang 3 thSng ^6 th^ng gl.nam ' i 5.09737 ,, 5.1988 •'15.27789 ,^^, 5.31296" 4 i 1 94319^^ ' 3.08101 3.23614 ""' 3.4382 ',' '.' 2.26 1.1,2 .9K''^f2.22<' 2.069 Ngudn: http://www.econstats.com Cuoc khiing hoang kinh tl My culi nam 2008 - diu nam 2009 da lam suy giam niem tin cua cac ngan hang vao dong USD va hg chuyen sang cho vay bang dong EUR. Tuy nhien, vao cuoi nam 2009 khi ng cong chau Au c6 dau hieu lam vao khiing hoang thi thi trudng tin dung quIc tl lap tiic phan ling theo chieu hudng ngugc lai. Ty trgng cua EUR tren thi trudng nay tinh vao thang 12/2009 da giam 1.6% so vdi ciing ky nam trudc do^. • Tren thi trudng chiing khoan quoc te Gia tri cua cac chung khoan ng^ djnh danh bing EUR khong ngimg tang len kl tir khi no ra ddi cho den nay (ngoai trir mot sir suy giam nam 2008 so vdi 2007 do anh hudng cua khung hoang kinh tl toan cau). Ben canh do, ty trong ciia EUR tren thi trudng nay cung tang, tir khoang 20% (miic gin bing vdi Yen Nhat) vao nam 1999 len hon 30% vao nam 2009 (trong khi Yen Nhat chi chiem dudi 10%). Dilu nay cho thay vi thi cua EUR da tang len so vdi khi mdi ra ddi. Cung dl dang nhan thay, theo thdi gian, EUR da thay thi Yen Nhat dl trd thanh ding tien CO vj tri thii 2, sau USD. Dilm dang luu y la nam 2005, ty trong cua USD giam xudng miic thap nhit trong khi ty trong ciia EUR tang len miic cao nhit va hai ty trgng nay xIp xi nhau. Dieu nay la do nam 2005, lai suat cua cac trai philu ky han 5 nam va 2 nam djnh danh bing EUR thap hon cac trai phieu ciing ky han khac lan lugt la 11 % va 15%^. Nam 2008, khi khiing hoang kinh tl dien ra d My va c6 nguy co lan rgng ra toan cau, FED da lien tuc cit giam lai suit va den thang 12/2008, lai suit cac chiing khoan ng dinh danh bing USD ky han 2, 5 va 10 nam da giam xuIng miic lan lugt la 0.89%, 1.5% va 2.18%, trong khi cac chiing ng djnh danh bang EUR ciing ky han lin lugt la 2.342%, 3.069% va 3.698%*. Lai suit cua cac churng khoan ng djnh danh bing USD thap da thiic diy viec phat hanh chiing khoan ng djnh danh bing EUR, tuy nhien viec USD mit gia 2% so vdi EUR vao culi nam 2008' lai ngan chan sir tang trudng nay. Do do, tinh theo ty gia hien hanh, den culi nam 2008, ty trgng ciia USD la 44.7%, tang nhe (1.4%) so vdi cung ky nam 2007 trong khi ty trgng cua EUR vSn giii" nguyen d muc 32.2%'". DIU hieu vl cuoc khiing hoang ng cong Hy Lap da khien cho culi nam 2009 ty trgng cac chiing khoan ng djnh danh bing EUR giam xuong miic 31.4% (giam 0.8% so vdi cuoi nam 2008) va tang ty trgng cac churng khoan ng djnh danh bing USD len 45.8% (tang 1.1% so vdi cuoinam 2008)". ' ECB (2008, 2009,2010), sdd. * Thj truemg churng khoin ng 1^ thj truemg m^ t^i do ding ti^n dugc dimg de djnh danh churng khoan kh6ng phdi 14 ding tiln cua nude nguexi pMt hdnh turc \k thi tnremg chi bao gIm cic giao dich qu6c ii. ^ ECB (2008,2009,2010), sdd. 'Nt. ' Gertrude Tumpel - Gugerell (2009), presentation The Future of Reserve Currencies, ECB. '" ECB (2008,2009,2010), sdd. "Nt. p„ 50 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°07 (130).2011 Ty trgng cac dong tien trong tone ngr quoc te So lirgrng (nghin ty USD) Thi phan VSD EUR iiiiiill 1999' ajoi' '2003 2005 •—. 1999 .•-•, ••-^ 2001 '•••«u_ !20O3 7001 200? 20QS Ngudn: The international role of the EURO, 2010. Diem dang luu y la nam 2005, ty trgng cua USD giam xuong mire thap nhat trong khi ty trgng cua EUR tang len miic cao nhat va hai ty trong nay xap xi nhau. Dieu nay la do nam 2005, lai suat ciia cac trai phieu ky han 5 nam va 2 nam dinh danh bing EUR thip hon cac trai phieu ciing ky han khac lin lugt la 11% va 15%'^. Nam 2008, khi khung hoang kinh tl dien ra d My va co nguy co lan rgng ra toan cau, FED da lien tuc cat giam lai suit va den thang 12/2008, lai suit cac chimg khoan ng dinh danh bing USD ky han 2, 5 va 10 nam da giam xuIng muc lin lugt la 0.89%, 1.5% va 2.18%, trong khi cac chiing ng dinh danh bang EUR cung ky han lin lugt la 2.342%, 3.069% va 3.698%'^. Lai suit cua cac chiing khoan ng dinh danh bing USD thip da thiic day viec phat hanh churng khoan ng dinh danh bang EUR, tuy nhien viec USD mit gia 2% so vdi EUR vao culi nam 2008*'* lai ngan chan sir tang trudng '^ ECB (2008,2009, 2010), sdd. "Nt. "* Gertrude Tumpel - Gugerell (2009), presentation The Future of Reserve Currencies, ECB. nay. Do dd, tinh theo ty gia hien hanh, den cuoi nam 2008, ty trgng cua USD la 44.7%, tang nhe (1.4%) so vdi cung ky nam 2007 trong khi ty trgng ciia EUR van giir nguyen d miirc 32.2%'^. DIU hieu ve cude khiing hoang ng cong Hy Lap da khiln cho cuoi nam 2009 ty trgng cac chung khoan ng dinh danh bang EUR giam xuIng muc 31.4% (giam 0.8% so vdi culi nam 2008) va tang ty trgng cac chiing khoan ng dinh danh bing USD len 45.8% (tang 1.1% so vdi culi nam 2008)'*. • Tren thi tru&ng trdi phieu quoc te Hoat dgng phat hanh trai phieu dinh danh bing EUR tren thi trudng ng quoc te da suy giam trong quy dau nam 2009 do cuoc khung hoang da lam gia tang bien dgng tai chinh toan ciu. Ting trai philu, ky philu dinh danh bing EUR da giam xuIng miirc khoang 2.8 nghin ty vao quy diu tien cua nam 2009, sau do khoi phuc len miic hon 3 nghin ty vao nua sau ciia nam. Tren thuc te, phan Idn cac trai philu, ky phieu dinh danh bing EUR dugc " ECB (2008,2009, 2010), sdd. '*Nt. (Dang&atdl trin thi trt^^tg tai ehinh 51 phat hanh bdi cac thi chi tai chinh. Culi nam 2009, ty trgng ciia khu vuc nay xoay quanh mire 69%. Miic dong gop nay Idn hon so vdi mire dong gop cua no trong trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bing USD va Yen Nhat (lin lugt la 52% va 56%). Cung trong thdi gian nay, ty trong cua khu vuc nha nude va cac to chiic phi tai chinh trong phat hanh trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bing EUR lin lugt la 6% va 12%, thap hon miic dong gop cua no trong phat hanh trai philu, ky philu dinh danh bing USD (lan lugt d mire 12% va 16%). Tuy nhien, do dung lugng thi trudng trai phieu, ky phieu ciia USD Idn hom so vdi EUR (4.7 nghin ty so vdi 3.1 nghin ty) nen mac dii cac the che tai chinh phat hanh trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bang EUR d miic 69% (trong khi ty trgng cua no trong phat hanh trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bang USD thap hon la 52%) nen cac to chiic nay van phat hanh mot lugng Idn hem cac trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bang USD trong hoat dong phat hanh ciia no. Gia tri cac trai phieu quoc te dugrc djnh danh bing EUR xet theo khu vuc phat hanh (Ty USD) (USD billions) C4c to chiic quoc tS Cac thi chg t&i chinh u«i fir Cac cong ty ^ ^ Cdc khu vvrc cong khac •»•«• oi Khu vvrc nhd nude 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 HIH i i i .j;i;:itii;;::!!!{!ii««>!)Mimn!ni|,n H 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1999 2001 20O3 2005 2007 2009 Sources: BIS and ECB calculations. I) Includes public corporations, public banks and other public financial institutions. Gia trj cac trai phieu quoc te dirgrc djnh danh bing EUR xet theo khu vyc phat hanh (%, quy IV nam 2009) (percentages; jchu v^c nhd nudc •_ so Cdc khu v^rc cong khdc mtm od Cdc c6ng ty ' ^ Cdc the cha tai chinh __^^_,^ J,, Cdc to chiic qu6c tS Dung IiTQ^ng thj trirdrng (nghin tyS) EUR USD JPY Sources: BIS and ECB calculations. I) Includes public corporations, public banks and other public financial institutions. Nguon: The international role of the Euro, 2010. • Trong dif trie ngogi hoi todn cau Du- trir ngoai hIi toan ciu khdng phai la mot trong si cac thi trudng tai chinh toan cau nhung viec xem xet tinh hinh sir dung dong EUR vdi vai tro la dong tiln du trir cung rat quan trgng. Dir trii ngoai hoi la phuomg tien de cac quIc gia can thiep vao nen kinh te bang each mua ban cac dong tien va no cung co moi quan he mat thilt vdi can can thanh toan quoc tl. Do dd, ty trgng cac ding tien trong dir trCir se phan anh ro net vi thi cua cac dong tien tren cac thi trudng tai chinh toan ciu. 52 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°07 (130).20n Ty trong cac ddng tien trong dur trCr ngoai hoi toan cau 1999 - 2008 S6 luyng (nghin ty USD) Thj phan •USD IEH IJPY lOtlieraiireDcies Undisclosed 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 im Mi 2008 —USD —EUR -JPY I 1 1 1 1—n 1 1 1 r 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200? 200 ^70 60 50 40 30 20 Ngudn: The Future of Reserve Currencies, 2009. So lieu tren cho thay USD la ddng tien dugc dir trir nhieu nhat vdi ty trgng trong du trir ngoai hoi toan ciu tir 60% din 70%, dumg thii hai la dong EUR vdi ty le dao dgng tir 20 - 30%. Ty trgng cua cac ddng tiln trong du trir ngoai hoi toan cau kha on dinh, ngoai trir sir biln dong vao nam 2003 va 2005. Nam 2003, ty trong ciia USD trong dir trii ngoai hoi toan cau giam ciing vdi do la sir gia tang ty trgng cua EUR. Nam 2005, ty trgng cua USD tang trd lai trong khi ty trgng cua EUR giam xudng. Sir bien dgng dang chii y ve ty trgng cac dong tiln trong dir trir ngoai hdi tir nam 2003 din nam 2005 dugc giai thich bdi hieu ling gia tn. Sir thay doi trong ty gia USD/EUR da anh hudng den gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bing USD va EUR. Gia tri ddng EUR lien tuc tang kl tir diu nam 2003, din culi nam 2003, EUR da tang gia gin 20% so vdi USD [15]. Do do, gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bang EUR va ty le cua chiing trong du trii" toan ciu tang len. Ngugc lai vdi xu hudng do, ke tir dau nam 2005, ding EUR lien tuc giam gia so vdi USD, tinh den culi nam 2005, EUR da giam gia 14% so vdi USD [15]. Dilu nay lam cho gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bang EUR giam va gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bing USD tang len, dan den tang ty trgng ciia USD va giam ty trgng cua EUR trong du trir ngoai hdi toan ciu. Mat khac, kl tir khi ra ddi cho din nay, ty trgng cua EUR trong du trii ngoai hIi toan cau da tang len trong khi ty trgng cua USD da <I>&nq. ^(WQ. trin thi tnte^ng tai ehinh. 53 giam doi chut. Dieu nay la do mot vai nguyen nhan nhu sau: * Thu nhdt, cac nude tren the gidi muon phan tan rui ro va giam bdt sir phu thugc vao chinh sach tiln te ciia My. Nude di dau trong phong trao nay la Lien bang Nga. Nude nay da tang ty trong ciia EUR trong ro tien te dugc sir dung bdi Ngan hang Trung uong Nga tir 10% - 20% vao thang 5 nam 2005, len lin lugt la 35% (8/2005), 40% (12/2005) va 45% (2/2007)'^ * Thic hai, tinh long cua cac tai san dinh danh bing EUR da tang len dang kl. Mot cuoc khao sat dugc thuc hien bdi Ngan hang Thanh toan Quoc tl (BIS) da dua ra kit qua la 74% cac Ngan hang Trung uong cho rang cac trai phieu dinh danh bing EUR cd tinh long cao, diing thir hai sau cac trai philu dinh danh bing USD'^ DO la ly do vi sao hg tin tudng sir dung cac tai san dinh danh bing EUR trong du tru ngoai hIi ciia minh. * Thif ba, cac giao dich sir dung ding EUR da tang trong 10 nam trd lai day doi hoi cac Ngan hang Trung uong phai tich trii mot gia tri Idn hon cac tai san dinh danh bing EUR trong du trii ngoai hIi cua minh. Nhin chung, tren cac thi trudng tai chinh toan ciu, ty le sir dung ding EUR vin thap hon so vdi USD. Tuy nhien, ty le su dung dong EUR trong nhung nam gan day da tang so vdi khi dong EUR bat dau chinh thiic dugc dua vao sii dung. Mat khac, dong EUR dugc sir dung nhilu nhat d cac nude EU khong phai la thanh vien Eurozone, sau do den khu vuc BIC My, trong khi do no dugc sir dung rat it d cac nude chau A - noi ding USD dugc sir dung phi bien. Nhu da noi d tren, ty trgng cua USD trong dir trir ngoai hIi toan ciu khong ngimg suy giam ke tir khi EUR ra ddi cho den nay. Cuoc khiing hoang kinh tl My cang thiic diy xu hudng nay. Ty trgng cua USD trong dir trii ngoai hIi toan cau tinh den cuoi nam 2008 la 60.7% (giam 1.3% so vdi binh quan nam 2007)'' trong khi ty trong cua EUR cuoi nam 2008 la 30% (tang 1.4% so vdi binh quan nam 2007)^°. Ngay ca khi cuoc khiing hoang kinh tl cua My din qua di va chau Au lam vao khiing hoang ng, cac Ngan hang Trung uong van khong tang ty trgng cua USD trong du trir ngoai hIi cua minh. Thay vao do, tinh den cuoi nam 2009, cac nude tilp tuc giam ty trong cua USD xuIng miic 58.5%, giii nguyen ty trong cua EUR va tang ty trgng ciia cac ding tiln (khong kl Yen Nhat) khac len 9.6% (diu nam 2008 miic nay la 7.8%)^'. Dilu nay la do trong bii canh kinh tl toan ciu co nhilu biln dong, viec da dang hoa du trii ngoai hIi se giam bdt riii ro cho cac nude. " Ellas Papaioannou and Richard Portes (2008), The international role of the euro: a status report, European Commission. " ECB (2008, 2009,2010), sdd. "Nt. ^' ECB (2008, 2009, 2010), sdd. 54 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°07 (130).2011 smices euro area euro area Uiiited United J^ J^ (1997- {2001- States Stats (M7- QOOl- 2000) mi) (mi- (2001- 2000) 2006) 2000) 2006) Ty trgng cua khu virc Eurozone vi My trong tSng GDP toan cau (theo PPP) 100% 8OP/0 eop/o 40% 20% 0% !.MUIKt,it;ftirit.M»ilMII «M,HII I iKIuVTIcdTkigELR IM? IKIBC 2. Cac yeu to anh hirdng den vj the cua dong EUR • Quy mo kinh te, do md ciia cua khu vuc su dung dong EUR (Eurozone) Eurozone la mot khu vuc co quy mo kinh te Idn (GDP theo ngang gia sire mua cua khu vuc nay nam 2010 la 10.793,97 ty USD^^), dieu nay giai thich tai sao ngay tir khi mdi ra ddi ding EUR da dugc cac nude tren the gidi chip nhan va sii dung rgng rai. Tuy nhien, ddng EUR van ehua the thay the vai trd chu dao cua ddng USD mot phan la do trong suot thdi ky tir 2002 din nay quy md kinh te ciia Eurozone con kem My. Nam 2010, ty le dong gop ciia My, Eurozone va Nhat Ban lin lugt la 20,22%, 14,62% va 5,83%^^ Ba khu vuc nay da dong gop gan 50% trong GDP toan cau. Dieu nay giai thich mot thuc tl la ddng USD, ddng EUR ^^ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics " Georges Pineau, (2010), The global use of the dollar and Euro, European Commission, tai lieu duac lly tu trang web http://www.ecb.int/pub/html/index.en.html va dong Yen la nhung dong tien dugc sir dung rgng rai trong cac quan he kinh te quoc te, trong dd quy md kinh tl tuomg duong vdi vi the cac ddng tien. Ngoai quy md kinh te thi miic do md cira cua khu vuc chau Au, My va Nhat Ban cung cho thay vi thi cua cac ding tiln nay tren cac thi trudng tai chinh qude tl. Do md cira cua Eurozone trong thdi ky tir 2001 den 2007 la gin 38%, tang 5% so vdi thdi ky tir 1997 din 2000. Cung vdi xu hudng do, do md cua ciia My va Nhat Ban cung tang len dang ke (lin lugt la 25% va 23% trong thdi ky 2000 - 2007). Tuy nhien, do md cua nen kinh te hai nude nay vin thip hon so vdi Eurozone. Nam 2009, gia tri xuit khiu cua Eurozone neu tinh ca ndi KhIi chilm 29,1% tdng gia tn xuat khau toan cau, Idn hom rat nhieu so vdi My (8,6%.) va Nhat Ban (4,7%). Neu khdng tinh gia tri thuong mai ndi KhIi, ty trgng xuat khau cua khu vuc nay trong gia trj xuit khau toan cau vin Idn hon My gan 7% va Nhat Ban 12%. [...]... cua My, Eurozone va Nhat Ban tir 2007 - 2010 8" „ 1 ° S -1 9" S i -2 ^—Eiiraarea UA S -•—Japan 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 Ngudn: Annual report on the euro area, 2010 Gia tri xuat khau cua cac nude trong gia tri xuat khau toan cau (khong bao gom thuotig mai noi Khoi Eurozone) Gia tri xuat khau cua cac nvdc trong gia tri xuat khau toan cau (bao gom thvo'ng mai noi Khoi Eurozone)... tri xuat khau toan cau (bao gom thvo'ng mai noi Khoi Eurozone) 17% • eurozone I us' • us 57% • eurozone I japan • japan 67% I rest of the world • rest of the world Ngudn: ECB Co thi thay ring do md ciia Idn ciia Eurozone la mot trong nhiing ylu t l giiip cho ding EUR dugc sii dung rgng rai trong thuomg mai quIc tl Yeu ciu su dung ding EUR trong xuat nhap khau se din din mot loat cac hoat dong tren cac... trien va hgp tac tot vdi nhau se khien cho dong EUR nang cao dugc vi the ciia minh Hien nay, thi trudng tai chinh Eurozone co tinh thanh khoan cao, dac biet la cac trai phieu chinh phii bing dong EUR Cd khoang 74% cac ngan hang trung uong xac nhan tinh thanh khoan cao cua trai phieu dinh danh bing ddng EUR Cac trai phieu chinh phu dinh danh bing ding EUR co tinh Idng cao thii hai sau cac trai phieu... ciia Eurozone dong mot vai tro dang ke trong viec quyet dinh vi the ciia dong EUR Ke tir nam 2000 den nay, lam phat ciia Eurozone luon giir d miic thip va on dinh, lam phat trong giai doan tir nam 2000 den 2007 xoay quanh mire 2% Do anh hudng ciia cuoc khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau, lam phat ciia khu vuc nay da dao dgng manh hon trudc, len miic 4% vao nam 2008 va xuong miic dudi 0% So vdi cac nude, Eurozone... Turkey iapai " ^ i C y p m s W a UK j , ^ Estoiia •Poland • , CzechRepubiicij (Hungary § FVIIM Deimark l&M^a Sovenla Estonb Ngudn: The global use of the Dollar and Euro, 2010 Co thi thiy cac nude thugc khu vuc EU Nhu vay, dong EUR vin con kem lgi the sii dung dong USD rat han che trong cac giao so vdi ddng USD d mot vai ylu td nhu quy mo dich ciia minh, trong khi cac nude d Idiu vuc kinh t l cua Eurozone... cuoc khung hoang chau Au, nhung xet nhiing yeu to quylt dinh vi thi cua mot ddng tiln thi ddng NDT hoan toan khong cd kha nang thay thi EUR trong thdi gian tdi, bdi le NDT khong cd dugc lgi thi nhu EUR Vl phia ding EUR, de dong tiln nay cd dugc sir phat triln bin viing, Eurozone noi rieng va khu vuc EU ndi ^' http://tailieu.vn/xem-tai-lieu/bao-cao-vi-the-dongusd-qua-cac-giai-doan-tac-dong-doi-voi-viet-nam.336826.html... international role of the EURO, http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/html/index.en.ht ml 3 Elias Papaioannou and Richard Portes (2008), The international role of the euro: a status report, European Commission 4 Georges Pineau, (2010), The global use of the dollar and Euro, European Commission, tai lieu dugc lay tir trang web http://www.ecb.int^pub/html/index.en.html 5 Gertrude Tumpel - Gugerell (2009), presentation The... thi bi thay thi Thdi gian kl tir khi O ding EUR dugc dua vao su dung chinh thiic trong ITnh vuc tiln mat din nay ehua phai la mot khoang thdi gian dai, trong khi USD da chiem vi the dgc ton tir gin 60 nam nay Do do, EUR vin ehua thi trd thanh thach thiic Idn dii vdi vi thi cua USD 2*http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics 58 NGHIEN CCrU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°07 (1301.2011 Tinh... ngan hang cung se cin d\f trii dong EUR trong du tr& ngoai hIi cua minh dl can thiep vao thi trudng khi cin thilt Day la ly do lam cho ddng EUR dugc sii dung ngay mot rgng rai hon trudng am ke tir cuoi nam 2008 cho den quy IV 2009 va nam 2010 nen kinh te ciia cac nude tang trudng duong trd lai Trong do My la nude cd miic tang trudng trd lai nhanh va In dinh nhat Eurozone tang trudng tir tir va cham... nhu chau A, Trung Ddng va My Latinh lai chu trudng tai chinh d Eurozone ehua phat trien va yeu sii dung dong USD Diln hinh nhu Algeria thilu tinh hgp nhat so vdi thi trudng tai chinh su dung dong USD trong gan nhu hau hit cac d My, thdi gian luu hanh cua EUR ehua lau hgp dong xuat khau, hay hon 80% hgp dong Dilu nay giai thich tai sao EUR chi diing vi tri nhap khiu cua Indonesia dugc thanh toan bing . bang USD va EUR la do trong giai doan culi nam 2007, dSu nam 2008 EUR da giam gia so vdi USD xuong con 1 EUR = 1,4349 USD (20/12/2007) va 1 EUR = 1,4482 . the cua EUR. Ty trgng cua EUR tren thj trudng nay vao cuoi nam 2009 chi con giii d miic 22%^. http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/euro fcref-praph-usd.en.html