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THE ARTS
CHILD POLICY
CIVIL JUSTICE
EDUCATION
ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
NATIONAL SECURITY
POPULATION AND AGING
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policy.
David E. Stem, Michael Boito, Obaid Younossi
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
Systems Engineering
and Program
Management
Trends and Costs for Aircraft and
Guided Weapons Programs
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing
objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges
facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s
publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients
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© Copyright 2006 RAND Corporation
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Stem, David E.
Systems engineering and program management trends and costs for aircraft and
guided weapons programs / David E. Stem, Michael Boito, Obaid Younossi.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
“MG-413.”
ISBN 0-8330-3872-9 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. United States. Air Force—Procurement—Costs. 2. Airplanes, Military—
United States—Costs. 3. Guided missiles—United States—Costs.
I. Boito, Michael, 1957– II. Younossi, Obaid. III. Title.
UG1123.S75 2006
358.4'162120973—dc22
2005030589
U.S. Air Force photo by Kevin Robertson
The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air
Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be
obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq
USAF.
iii
Preface
Although systems engineering and program management (SE/PM)
have long been part of aircraft and weapons systems development and
production costs, there has not been a comprehensive, focused study
that has addressed the issue of developing cost estimates for SE/PM.
This report specifically focuses on techniques that can be used to es-
timate SE/PM costs. It also describes various functions within SE/PM
and investigates possible cost drivers of SE/PM.
Through extensive interviews with government and industry
personnel, a literature search of past studies regarding SE/PM cost
analysis, and analysis of actual SE/PM data, the authors characterize
trends in SE/PM costs and general estimating methodologies. This
study should be of interest to government and industry cost analysts,
the military aircraft and weapon acquisition community, and others
concerned with current and future acquisition policies.
Because of its proprietary nature, the cost information for the
relevant programs is provided in a supplementary RAND Corpora-
tion report (TR-311-AF), which is not available to the general public.
Inquiries regarding the supplement should be directed to the Office
of the Technical Director, Air Force Cost Analysis Agency at (703)
604-0387.
This report is one of a series of reports from a RAND Project
AIR FORCE study entitled “The Cost of Future Military Aircraft:
Historical Cost-Estimating Relationships and Cost-Reduction Initia-
tives.” The purpose of the study is to improve the cost-estimating
tools used to project the cost of future weapon systems and to investi-
iv SE/PM: Trends and Costs for Aircraft and Guided Weapons Programs
gate the effects of recent management initiatives and government
policies on cost. The study is being conducted within the RAND
Project AIR FORCE Resource Management Program. The research
is sponsored by the Principal Deputy, Office of the Assistant Secre-
tary of the Air Force (Acquisition), and by the Office of the Technical
Director, Air Force Cost Analysis Agency.
Other RAND Project AIR FORCE reports that address military
aircraft cost estimating issues are the following:
• Military Airframe Acquisition Costs: The Effects of Lean Manufac-
turing, Cynthia R. Cook and John C. Graser (MR-1325-AF,
2001). This report examines the package of new tools and tech-
niques known as “lean production” to determine if it would en-
able aircraft manufacturers to produce new weapons systems at
costs below those predicted by historical cost estimating models.
• An Overview of Acquisition Reform Cost Savings Estimates, Mark
A. Lorell, John C. Graser (MR-1329-AF, 2001). In this report,
the authors examine relevant literature and conducted interviews
to determine whether estimates on the efficacy of acquisition re-
form measures are sufficiently robust to be of predictive value.
• Military Airframe Costs: The Effects of Advanced Materials and
Manufacturing Processes, Obaid Younossi, Michael Kennedy,
John C. Graser (MR-1370-AF, 2001). This report examines the
effect of the use of advanced materials, such as composites and
titanium, on military aircraft costs. The report provides cost es-
timators with useful factors for adjusting and creating estimates
based on parametric cost-estimating methods.
• Military Jet Engine Acquisition: Technology Basics and Cost-
Estimating Methodology, Obaid Younossi, Mark V. Arena, Rich-
ard M. Moore, Mark A. Lorell, Joanna Mason, John C. Graser
(MR-1596-AF, 2002). This report updates earlier studies in the
area of propulsion cost analysis, discusses recent engine tech-
nologies, and provides methods and techniques that can be used
to estimate the costs of future engine programs.
• Test and Evaluation Trends and Costs for Aircraft and Guided
Weapons, Bernard Fox, Michael Boito, John C. Graser, Obaid
Preface v
Younossi (MG-109-AF, 2004). This report examines the effects
of changes in the test and evaluation (T&E) process used to
evaluate military aircraft and air-launched guided weapons dur-
ing their development programs. It also provides relationships
for developing estimates of T&E costs for future programs.
• Software Cost Estimation and Sizing Methods: Issues and Guide-
lines, Shari Lawrence Pfleeger, Felicia Wu, Rosalind Lewis (MG-
269-AF, 2005). This report recommends an approach to im-
prove the utility of software cost estimates by exposing uncer-
tainty and reducing risks associated with developing software es-
timates.
• Lessons Learned from the F/A-22 and F/A-18E/F Development
Programs, Obaid Younossi, David E. Stem, Mark A. Lorell,
Frances M. Lussier (MG-276-AF, 2005). This reports evaluates
the history of the F/A-22 and F/A-18 E/F programs to under-
stand how costs and schedules changed during their develop-
ment. The study derives lessons that the Air Force and other
services can use to improve acquisition.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo-
ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop-
ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with
independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development,
employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future
aerospace forces. Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace
Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource
Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site
at http://www.rand.org/paf.
vii
Contents
Preface iii
Figures
xi
Tables
xv
Summary
xvii
Acknowledgments
xxv
Acronyms and Abbreviations
xxvii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction 1
Study Background and Purpose
1
Comparison with Previous Work in This Area
4
Study Methods and Approach
5
Limitations of the Study
11
Organization of This Report
11
CHAPTER TWO
Defining Systems Engineering and Program Management 13
Systems Engineering Definition
13
The Systems Engineering Process
16
Process Input
16
Process Output
18
System Analysis and Control
19
Program Management Definition
20
Tasks Specific to Contractor Program Management
21
Tools Used in Systems Engineering and Program Management
23
viii SE/PM: Trends and Costs for Aircraft and Guided Weapons Programs
Planning Tools 23
Controlling Tools
25
Product-Improvement Tools
27
CHAPTER THREE
Cost Trends in Systems Engineering and Program Management 29
SE/PM Development Cost Trends
29
SE/PM Production Cost Trends
36
Acquisition Initiatives That May Affect Future SE/PM Costs
38
Military Specification Reform
41
Integrated Product Teams
45
Evolutionary Acquisition
48
Summary
50
CHAPTER FOUR
Cost Data Findings and Current Estimating Approaches 51
Cost and Schedule Data Sources
51
Cost Data Findings
53
MIL-HDBK-881 Definition of SE/PM
53
Definitions Across Multiple Contractors
54
Definition of SE/PM Within a Single Company
57
Government Approaches to Estimating SE/PM Costs
59
Estimating Approaches Used by Industry: General Methods
62
Estimating Approaches Used by Industry: Development Programs
63
Estimating Approaches Used by Industry: Production Programs
66
Summary
66
CHAPTER FIVE
Analytic Approach for Estimating SE/PM Costs 69
Analysis of Potential Cost Drivers
70
Aircraft Development SE/PM Cost-Estimating Analysis
76
Aircraft Development SE/PM Cost-Estimating Parameters
77
Aircraft Development SE/PM Cost-Estimating Relationships
79
Aircraft Production SE/PM Cost-Estimating Analysis
83
Aircraft Production SE/PM Cost-Estimating Parameters
83
Aircraft Production SE/PM Cost-Estimating Relationships
88
[...]... initial spares and repair parts, and systems engineering and program management These costs are not directly associated with the development or the production of the hardware end item Nevertheless, they are important cost elements that are necessary for delivery of the complete end item to the government RAND began the investigation of below -the- line costs with a study of systems test and evaluation... Engineering and 1 Cost estimates for the Department of Defense are usually structured around the productcentric work breakdown structure described in Military Handbook 881 (Mil-HDBK-881) The handbook provides a framework for categorizing program costs starting with the hardware and software costs directly associated with the end item and adding the below the line costs Below the line costs derive their... Thompson from the Office of Undersecretary of Defense and RAND colleague Bernard Fox for their thoughtful and careful review Jack Graser provided much-needed guidance and direction for the analysis effort Allan Crego assisted with the statistical analysis of the data Nancy DelFavero did an outstanding job of editing and improving the flow of the discussion in the final report, and Jennifer Li and Jane Siegel... understand the nature of the content of the work that is performed in this area We define what is involved in the systems engineering and program management disciplines from a general sense of what SE/PM is and describe the iterative process and tools (such as reviews and documents that are developed for a program) that are used in the field The definition and processes provide a basis for understanding... engineering and program management costs include the costs of business management as well as the costs of engineering and technical control of a particular program Systems test and evaluation costs are the costs associated with using specific hardware and software to validate that the engineered design meets the desired performance of the system Training costs include the costs of services and equipment... investigate the effects of new acquisition initiatives on SE/PM costs The three new acquisition initiatives we investigated were the removal of military specifications and standards, the use of integrated product and process teams, and the relatively Summary xix new preferred acquisition approach of evolutionary acquisition Each of these initiatives could affect SE/PM costs We tried to determine whether the. .. variation in the final outcome and a better understanding of the specific cost drivers (see page 125) Finally, we investigated the potential effect that new acquisition approaches, such as decreased use of military specifications and military standards, use of integrated product teams (IPTs), and the use of evolutionary acquisition, would have on SE/PM costs Because there is not a long history of these types... took the time to provide insights and information used in this study This study would not have been possible without the sponsorship of Lt Gen John Corley, the U.S Air Force Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Acquisition Also, we greatly appreciate the oversight provided by the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency and its assistance in gathering the data used for the analysis in this report In particular,... developing good budgets and policy decisions Some recent RAND studies have looked at estimating techniques for the nonrecurring and recurring flyaway costs of military airframes and engines This study extends the analysis into what are termed “below -the- line” costs.1 Below -the- line costs include costs for such items as system test and evaluation, data, special test equipment and tooling, training, operational... Table 1.1 The WBS provides a common structure for understanding and allocating tasks, expending resources, and reporting to the government Each lower level of the WBS has a child- to-parent” relationship such that Level 1 encompasses the entire aircraft system Level 2 costs include air vehicle costs that are associated with hardware and software that make up the complete flying aircraft The Level 3 . document
THE ARTS
CHILD POLICY
CIVIL JUSTICE
EDUCATION
ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
NATIONAL SECURITY
POPULATION AND. directly associated with the end item and adding the below the line
costs. Below the line costs derive their name from the fact that they are typically displayed
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