NGHIEN CliU - TRAD 001 - XA H O I V I £ T N A M 2010-2011: THLTC TRANG VA CHfNH SACH PHAT TRI^N KINH T ^ Le Xuan Ba* Cung v6i qua trinh hoi nhap kinh te sau rong, Viet Nam da chiing kien nhQng chuyen bien manh me ve mat kinh te xa hoi Sau mot giai doan dai tang trUcing hen tuc v6i on dinh kinh te' vi mo dUdc tri, Viet Nam da trci mot diem den dau tU ha'p d i n Viec gia nhap To chiic ThUdng mai The gidi (WTO) vao nam 2007 dUdc ky vong se thiic d^y nhiing chuyen bien sau sSc va tich cUc hdn ca ve mat kinh te va xa hoi Tuy nhien, chi sau mot thdi gian hiing khcii, Viet Nam da nhanh chong nhan miic rui ro kinh te - xa hoi cung v6i qua trinh hoi nhap, nha't la mo hinh tang trUcing kinh te da hoc lo ro hdn nhQng diem yeu c6' hflu Dae biet, cac tac dong nhanh va kho liidng thdi ky h^u WTO cung doi hoi cong tac dieu hanh chinh sach phai c6 nhiing bu6c chuyen (thdm chi la dao chieu) nhanh va kip thcli hdn, ma di^n hinh la vigc thUc hien goi giai phap kiem che lam phat va on dinh kinh t§' vi mo vao giiia nam 2008 va viec chuyen sang goi chinh sach kich thich kinh te vao cuoi n^m 2008 Chinh vi v^y, viec nhin nhsLn, danh gia diln bien kinh te xa hoi nhlim xac dinh nhiJng h.\idng dieu chinh chinh sach cinx thiet trci mot nhu c i u thUcing xuyen va lien tuc Boi canh phat trien kinh te xa hoi Viet Nam n a m 2010-2011 Ke tii thuc hien Boi mdi, Viet Nam da tap trung cac chinh sach nhSm Uu tien muc tieu tang trUcing kinh te, dong thcli nhan manh vai tro cua on dinh kinh te vi mo Tuy nhien, muc tieu tang trUcing kinh te n h i n dUdc nhieu Uu tien chinh sach hdn Chinh vi vay, den nam 2007, viec thuc d^y tang tru6ng kinh te dUa nhieu vao tang tin dung va d i u tU Tong d^u tU^ tang trung binh khoang 15,3%/nam cac nSm 2000-2007, toe tang nam 2007 da la 27,0% Ngay ca nam 2008-2009, Viet Nam thUc hien goi chinh sach kiem che lam phat va sau la kich thich kinh te, tong divL tU v i n tiep tuc tang trung binh khoang 9,6%/nam TUdng tU, tong du nd tin dung tang kha nhanh, tham chi dat miic 53,9% vao nam 2007, mac du da ch^m lai nhiing nam gan day Cling v6i viec Viet Nam gia nhap WTO, cac nha dau tU nU6c ngoai ciing c6 niem tin 16n hdn vao trien vong phat trien cua dat nU6c Chinh vi vay, cac dong von d i u tU nu6c ngoai vao Viet Nam da c6 quy mo 16n hdn, dat miic dinh la 64 ty USD (von dang ky) vao * L§ Xuan Ba, Ph6 giao sU, Ti^n si, Vien tritdng Vien Nghien cflu Quan ly kinh te Trung Udng B^i viet nliy the hi§n ^ ki6n ca nhan cua tac gia, khong nha't thiet phan anh quan dilm cua Vien Theo gia so sanh 1994 Stf41 (6/2011) QUAN Lt KINH it V U l i l i l NGHIEN Gim TRAP BOI nam 2008 Trong nhiing nam gan day, von dang ky da giam, song p h i n von thUc hien khong giam dang ke Dieu phan anh cong tac thu hiit dau tU trUc tiep nu6c ngoai tai Viet Nam da chii hdn den viec thuc hien cac du an Theo chieu hu6ng ngUdc lai, cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam ciing bat dau can nhac dau tU nU6c ngoai nham tan dung cd hoi va tang tiep can do'i v6i nguon tai nguyen (dac biet la khai khoang) d nU6c ngoai Ben canh do, Viet Nam v l n chiu tac dong cua cac cii soc tii ben ngoai Viec gia gao va gia nang lUdng tang tren thi trUdng the gi6i da gay ap lUc dang ke doi v6i gia ca nU6c Trong do, nhiing diln bien kho lUdng cua cac dong voh dau tU nU6c ngoai, dac biet la cac dong voh ngan han, cung vcli viec neo ty gia c6 dieu chinh dan cung tao them nhieu ap lUc do'i vcli tinh hinh lam phat va bat on kinh tevi mo nu6c Trong do, cac nen kinh te 16n nhU My, Nhat Ban, EU nhiing doi tac thUdng mai va dau tU chinh cua Viet Nam m6i khoi khung hoang va trien vong phuc hoi kinh te la chua ro rang Ke ta nam 2011, Viet Nam bat dau thUc hien Chien lUdc phat trien kinh te xa hoi cho giai doan 2011-2020, va Kehoach trien kinh te xa hoi nam 2011-2015 Cung nam 2011, Viet Nam tien hanh bau cii Quo'c hoi, lap mot Chinh phu m6i va hoat dong nam tdi Giai doan nay, Viet Nam tap trung n6 lUc giai quyet cac diem mo hinh tang trUcing, cu the la nhiing b^'t cap ve the che, ve ket cau t^ng va ve ch^'t lUdng nguon nhan lUc Dong thdi, Viet Nam ciing xem xet cac bien phap tai cd cau nen kinh te, dang trien khai xay dUng Nghi quyet ve day manh va nang cao hieu qua hoi nhap kinh te quo'c te den nam 2015 va tam nhin den 2020, nham tao dinh hu6ng tot hdn cho hoi QUAN LV KINH TE PHAT TRI^N KINH T ^ - XA HOI VIET NAM 2010-2011: nhap kinh te quo'c te giai doan m6i D i e n b i e n k i n h te N a m ke tii n a m 2010 xa hoi d Viet NhUng nhan to' nhU da trinh bay ci tren da C nhiing tac dong dang ke den tinh hinh O phat trien kinh te - xa hoi Viet Nam Du6i day tap trung phan tich nhiing diln bien ve tang trUcing kinh te, thUdng mai, dau tU, lam phat, ty gia, can can t h a n h toan va ddi song dan cU a) Tang tricdng kinh te Nam 2010, nen kinh te Viet Nam da c6 miic tang trUcing kha va c6 xu hu6ng quy sau tang nhanh hdn quy trU6c nhci viec thiic hien dong bo cac giai phap on dinh kinh te vi mo, thiic day phat trien va nhiing chinh sach ho trd san xua't kinh doanh Nen kinh te da s6m vUdt qua giai doan kho khan va phuc hoi nhanh sau khung hoang tai chinh toan cau Toe tang GDP cua quy I la 5,84%, quy II la 6,44%, quy III la 7,16%, quy rV la 7,34% Tinh chung, ca nam 2010 GDP tang 6,78% Tang tru6ng cua ca khu vUc nong - lam - thuy san, cong nghiep - xay dung va dich vu nam 2010 deu tang so v6i v6i nam 2009 (Bang 1) Den quy 1/2011, toe tang tru6ng dat 5,43% so v6i ciing ky nam 2010 To'c tang trUcing tUdng ling cua cac khu vUc nong lam - thuy san, cong nghiep xay dUng va dich vu Ian lUdt dat 2,05%, 5,47%, va 6,28% Ducing nhu khu vUc cong nghiep xay dung da c6 the la'y lai dUdc xu the tang trUcing chUa bang nhiing nam trU6c khung hoang tai chinh toan ciu, nam 2010 khu vUc da c6 dong gop nhieu nha't vao toe tang trUcing chung cua nen kinh te, khae han so v6i nam 2009 va 2008, nam bi tac dong manh bcii suy giam kinh te toan cau Thue te, khu vUc cong nghiep xay Stf 41 (6/2011) NGHIEN CUU TRAO DOI PHAT TRigN KINH T g - X A H l VlfT NAM 2010-2011: rmn Bang 1: Tang trirong GDP theo nganh, 2006-2010 Nganh 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Toe tang triCdng (%) GDP 8,23 8,48 6,29 5,32 6,78 Nong - lam - thuy san 3,69 3,40 5,04 1,82 2,78 Cong nghiep - xay diing 10,38 10,60 5,61 5,52 7,70 Dich vu 8,29 8,68 7,54 6,63 7,52 Bong gop vcio tang trUdng GDP theo diem phan tram 8,23 8,48 6,29 5,32 6,78 Nong - lam - thuy san 0,72 0,64 0,90 0,32 0,47 Cong nghiep - xay dUng 4,17 4,34 2,34 2,29 3,20 Dich vu 3,34 3,50 3,04 2,71 3,11 GDP Bong gop vao tang triidng GDP theo ty lephdn GDP tram 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 Nong - lam - thuy san 8,77 7,52 14,31 6,05 6,99 Cong nghiep - xay dUng 50,68 51,22 37,29 43,07 47,19 Dich vu 40,55 41,26 48,40 50,88 45,82 NguSn: TCTK va tinh todn cua Vien NCQLKTTW dung da dong gop 47,2% hay 3,2 diem phdn tram cho tang trUcing GDP nam 2010 Khu vUe dich vu ciing dong gop t6i 45,8% hay 3,1 di§m phan tram tang trUcing GDP Trong do, khu vUc nong - lam thuy san chi dong gop 6,7% hay 0,5 diem phan tram tang trUcing GDP Co the tha'y, ciing v6i khu vUc cong nghiep - xay dUng, khu vUc nong lam thuy san ciing da dong gop dang ke cho nen kinh te phuc hoi nhanh sau tac dong cua khung hoang kinh te toan cau Den quy 1/2011, mijtc dong gop cua cac khu vUc da c6 sU thay doi Khu vUc dich vu C dong gop 16n nha't, v6i ty le 52,1% hay O 2,83 diem p h i n tram Miic dong gop tUdng utng cua khu vUc cong nghiep - xay dUng chi la 43,5% hay 2,36 diem ph^n tram Cuoi ciing, khu vUc nong lam thuy san chi dong gop 4,4% hay 0,24 diem phan tram vao So 41 (6/2011) tang trUcing GDP quy Xet theo ty trong GDP, vong 10 nam qua cd cau kinh te theo gia thUc te C sU chuyen dich theo hu6ng giam ty O cua khu vUc nong lam - thuy san va tang ty cua khu vUc cong nghiep - xay dUng h) ThiCdng mai Ke tii nam 2010, sU phuc hoi cua kinh te the gi6i dac biet la cua cac thi trUdng truyen thong, gia nhieu nhom hang va nhu cau the gi6i tang trci lai da tao cd hoi tang trUcing cho hang hoa xua't kh^u cua Viet Nam Tong kim ngach xua't khau hang hoa nam 2010 dat khoang 72,2 ty USD, tang 26,4% so v6i nam 2009 Gia hang hoa xua't khau c6 xu hu6ng tang dan vao nhiing thang cuoi nam, so v6i miic gia binh quan cua 12 thang nam 2009 thi miic gia binh quan ciia cac mat hang nong san, khoang san deu tang QUAN LY KINH TE i ' l H l ' i l i l NGHIEN CIJIU TRAP DPI Chang han, gia s i n va san pham san tang 90,7%; cao su tang 81%; hat tieu tang 39,7%; hat dieu tang 22,4%; than da tang 52,9%; dau tho tang 33,7% Neu loai trut yeu to tang gia thi kim ngach hang hoa xua't khau nam 2010 u6c tinh dat 64,5 ty USD, tang 13,4% so v6i nam 2009 Xu hu6ng v i n tiep dien thang dau nam 2011, kim ngach hang hoa xua't khau dat 19,2 ty USD, tang t6i 33,7% so v6i cung ky nam tru6c, miic tang ci ca gia va lUdng xua't khau Trong do, khu vUc doanh nghiep c6 voh dau tU nude ngoai (FDI) tiep tuc dong vai tro chu dao xua't kh^u v6i ty cang tang Cu the, xua't khau cua khu VUc nam 2010 dat khoang 39,1 ty USD, chiem 54%'tong gia tri xua't khau cua ca nU6c, tang 27,8% so v6i nam 2009 Trong do, khu vUc doanh nghiep nu6c c6 gia tri xua't khau dat 33,1 ty USD, chiem 46% tong gia tri xua't kh^u ciia ca nu6c, tang 23,9% so v6i nam 2009 Trong thang diu nam 2011, ty cua khu vUc c6 voh FDI, khu vUc doanh nghiep nU6c Ian lUdt la 54,2% va 45,8% Theo nhom hang, nhom hang cong nghiep che bien chiem ty 16n nha't, nam 2010 dat 48,8 ty USD, chiem 67,7% tong gia tri xua't khau, tang 35% so v6i nam 2009 Day la nhom hang tang trUcing cao nha't va la nhom hang chii lUc cd ca'u hang hoa xua't khau cua Viet Nam Nhiing mat hang c6 miic tang trUcing cao la sat thep cac loai (174%), hoa cha't (149%), san pham hoa cha't, san pham tvf cao su, cha't deo nguyen lieu, phudng tien van tai va phu tung tang tren 50% Dang chii y, nhom hang det may nam 2010 da xac lap ky luc Ian d^u tien ke tu: thang den thang 12, xua't khau dat tren ty USD/thang Dang chii y la toe tang trUcing cua nhom hang cong nghiep che bien cao hdn so v6i xua't khau cua cac nhom hang QUAN Lf KINH TE PHAT TRiiN KINH TE - XA HOI VIET NAM 2010-2011: nong - lam - thuy san va nhien lieu, khoang san Dieu phan anh viec chuyen dich cd ca'u xua't khau theo hudng tang ty nhom hang cong nghiep che bien Theo thi trUdng xua't khau, chau A chiem ty 16n nha't cd ca'u thi trUcJng xua't khau ciia Viet Nam, chiem 46,1%, vdi gia tri xua't khau dat 33,3 ty USD, cac thi trUdng chu yeu la Nhat Ban, Han Quo'c, Trung Quo'c Hoa Ky vSn la thi trUdng xua't khau Idn nha't, vdi gia tri xua't khau nam 2010 va thang dau nam 2011 Ian lUdt dat 14,2 ty USD va 2,1 ty USD Tong gia tri nhap khau hang hoa nam 2010 dat 84,8 ty USD, tang 21,2% so vdi nam 2009 Trong do, kho'i doanh nghiep c6 voh d I u tu nude ngoai dat 37 ty USD, chiem 43,6% tong gia tri nhap kh^u cua ca nu6c, tang 41% so vdi nam 2009; kim ngach nhap khau cua kho'i doanh nghiep nUdc dat 47,8 ty USD, chiem 56,4%, tang 9% so v6i nam 2009 Gia nhap khau hang hoa kha on dinh ke tii dau nam 2010 nhUng ci miic cao, va chi tang dan tii thang cuoi nam 2010 Dang chii y la miic tang gia nhap khau 16n hdn ea miic giam lUdng nhap khau Tudng tu nhu xua't kh^u, nhap kh^u dudng nhu Cling tang n h a n h hdn quy 1/2011, gia tri hang hoa nhap khau dat 22,3 ty USD, tang 23,8% so vdi ciing ky nam 2010 Trong tong nhap khau, nhom hang can thiet nhap khau chiem mot ty dang ke, chu yeu de phuc vu san xua't hang xua't khau va tieu diing nU6c, phuc vu cho dau tu xay diing cac cong trinh, du an Gia tri nhap khau cua nhom nam 2010 dat 68,4 ty USD, tang 18,5% va chiem ty 80,7% tong kim ngach nhap kh^u Mot so' mat hang c6 lUdng nhap khau cao la Ilia my tang 59,9%, kim loai thudng tang 19,6%, bong tang 18% Mot so mat hang c6 gia tri nhap khau tang cao la: bong (72%), So 41(6/2011) PHAT TRI^N KINH it - XA H O I VIET NGHIEN CQU TRAO DPI NAM 2010-2011: kim loai thUdng (55%), sdi cac loai (45%), nguyen phu lieu det may, da giay (36%), may tinh dien tijt, Unh kien (31,7%) Do vay, xua't khau cua nhom hang cong nghiep che bien tang, thi nhap khau nguyen heu cho nhom tang Theo nguon nhap khau, nam 2010, Trung Quo'c la nUde xua't khau Idn nha't vao Viet Nam, chiem 23,5% gia tri nhap khau ^ ^ Nhap khau tii ASEAN chiem 19,2%, nhap khau tii Nhat Ban chiem khoang 11,5% Tinh chung, nhap khau tii cac nu6c Dong A chiem 58,5%, nhap khau tii chau A chiem tdi 77,7% Den nam 2011, Trung Quo'c tiep tuc la thi trUdng 16n nha't vdi kim ngach nhap khau hai thang dau nam la 3,1 ty USD, tang 25% so vdi cung ky nam trudc; ASEAN: 2,7 ty USD, tang 22% Hinh 1: Kim ngach nhap lihaiu tir mot so thi truomg chinh cua Viet Nam, 2007-2010 45,000 ASEAN Trung Qu6c Nhat Ban NguSn: Vita NCQLKTTW (2011) c) Dau tii Trong nam 2010, tong von ddu tu' xa hoi dat 830,3 nghin ty dong, tang 17,1% theo gia thuc te so vdi nam 2009 va b ^ 41,9% GDP^ Ty le d^u tu cao hdn so vdi nam 2008 (41,5%), nam thiic hien cat giam dau tU de doi vdi tinh hinh lam phat cao, nhUng thap hdn so vdi ty le 46,5% GDP nam 2007 va 42,7% nam 2009 Den het quy 1/2011, tong von dau tU phat trien toan xa hoi theo gia thuc te thuc hien Udc tinh dat 171,5 nghin ty dong, tang 14,7% so vdi cung ky nam 2010 Tuy nhien, ty von dau tu ciia khu vUc kinh te nha nU6c tong von dau tif toan xa hoi nam 2010 da giam xuong 38,1%, so vdi miic 40,6% vao nam 2009 nam thuc hien bd sung them cac nguon voh d^u tu cong de kich thich kinh te, ngan chan da suy giam kinh te anh hudng ciia khung hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te the gidi Trong do, ty dau tU cua khu viic kinh te ngoai nha nUde (d^u tU cua dan cU va tU nhan nUdc) da tang len 36,1% vao nam 2010, sau c6 xu hudng giam nam 2008 va 2009 (tir 38,5% Neu khong neu cu the, dIu tU phlin la theo gia thuc te So 41 (6/2011) QUAN LY KINH TE l H y l J NGHIEN Cii^ TRAP DPI PHATTRliN KINH TE- XA H O I VIET NAM 2010-2011: Bang 2: Co cau von dau tu xa hoi theo nguon von giai doan 2006-2010 (%) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Khu vUc nha nU6c 45,7 37,2 33,9 40,6 38,1 Khu vUc ngoai nha nUdc 38,1 38,5 35,2 33,9 36,1 Khu vUc C voh FDI O 16,2 24,3 30,9 25,5 25,8 Tong so 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 Nguon von Nguon: Tong cue Thd'ng ke (TCTK) vao nam 2007, giam xuong 35,2% nam 2008 va 33,9% vao nam 2009) Ty ciia khu O VUc C voh dau tU nUdc ngoai dat 25,8% vao nam 2010, tang nhe so vdi nam 2009 (25,5%) (Bang 2) Trong quy 1/2011, giai ngan mdi chi chu yeu ci khu vUc kinh te nha nude, nen ty ciia khu vUc tong dau tU da dat 44,5%, tiie la cao hdn so vdi mUc ciia ca nam 2010 Ve thu hiit voh FDI, tie dau nam den 21/12/2010, ca nUde c6 969 dii an mdi vdi tong von dang ky 17,2 ty USD, tang 2,5% so vdi nam 2009; 269 lUdt dU an dang ky tang voh dau tu vdi tong voh dang ky tang them la 1,4 ty USD, bang 23,5% so vdi ciing ky nam 2009 Tinh chung ca voh dang ky mdi va tang them, tinh den 21/12/2010, cac nha dau tU nUde ngoai da dang ky dau tU vao Viet Nam 18,6 ty USD, bang 82,2% so vdi ciing ky 2009 Nam 2010, Ude tinh cac dii an FDI da giai ngan dUde 11 ty USD, tang 10% so vdi nam 2009 Trong do, giai ngan cua cac nha dau tU nUde ngoai Udc dat ty USD Dang chii y la mac du gia tri von dang ky va tang them giam, phan voh giai ngan cua cac du an FDI v l n tri d miic cao so vdi cac nam trUdc Trong thang dau nam 2011, thu hiit FDI dat 2.371,7 trieu USD, chi bang 66,9% cung ky nam 2010 Tuy nhien, voh FDI thiic hien giai doan Udc dat 2.540 trieu USD, tang 1,6% so vdi cung ky nam 2010 Trong nam 2010, eo 107 dU an dau tU nUdc ngoai dUdc ca'p gia'y chiing nhan dau tU vdi tong so'voh dau tU cua Viet Nam nU6c ngoai la 2,93 ty USD; quy mo voh d^u tU cho Hinh 2: Thu hut FDI vao Viet Nam, 2000-2010 VSn dang Ic^ (trifu USD) c=3Vgn thuc hten (triSu USD) -•-Sgxiu an Nguon: B6 Kehoach va Ddu tu PUAN LY KINH TE So 41 (6/2011) P H A T T R I ^ N KINH NGHIEN CIJ^ TRAO DPI TE'- XA HOl V I E T NAM 2010-2011: mot du an dat tren 22,76 tri$u USD Cd du an tang von dau tU, vdi tong von dau tu dang ky tang them la 87 trieu USD Cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam diu tu chu yeu linh vUc khai khoang (14 dU an, tong von dau tU ca'p mdi va tang them cua ben Viet Nam la 1,99 ty USD, chiem 66% td'ng von d i u tu cua Viet Nam nUdc ngoai), linh vUc thong tin va truyen thong (9 dii an, tong voh cua ben Viet Nam la 408 trieu USD, chiem 14%) d) Lam phat Theo so'lieu cua Tong cue Thong ke, chi so' gia tieu diing thang 12 nam 2010 so vdi thang 12/2009 tang 11,75% (va tang 16,39% so vdi ky gdc nam 2009; binh quan nam 2010 so vdi binh quan nam 2009 tang 9,19%) Trong do, tang nhanh nhat la gia ca nhom nha d va vat lieu xay dUng, hang an va dich vu an udhg Trong do, gia ca cua nhom mjjj] bUu chinh - viln thong eo xu hudng giam, dac biet la vao thang 8/2010 Tuy vay, giai doan dau nam 2011, chi so'gia tieu diing da tiep tuc tang Trong thang dau nam, chi so' gia tieu dCing tang tdi 6,32% so vdi thing 12/2010, va tham chi eon tang 3,32% thang NhU vay, chi thang, toe lam phat da len tdi 9,64%, vUdt chi tieu quo'c hoi de cho nam 2011 (7%) Dien bien lam phat ci tren xua't phat tut mot so' nguyen nhan khach quan va chii quan Xet ve khach quan, tinh hinh lam phat eua nhieu nUdc tren the gidi diln phdc tap va luon xu the tang Trong do, gia cac nguyen lieu dau vao tang cao Ch^ng han, nam 2010, gia nhap khau xang dau tang 28,46%, hoa long: 32,61%, thep pham: 27,65%, gia'y: 19,74%, chat deo: 22,95%, bong xd: 45,4%, Mat khac, thien tai, dich benh c6 nhiing Hinh 3: Diln bien chi so gia tieu diing nam 2010 (thang 12/2009=100) 115 110 105 100 95 90 Chi stfgidtiSu dung -•"NhS?vdVLXD - • - Hdng an va dich vu an udng -*^ 10 11 12 - r ^ Phi an u6ng Bifu chinh vl5n thdng Nguon: Tdng cue TTi^ng ke (2009) So 41 (6/2011) QUAN LY KINH TE L i m i l l NGHIEN CIJ^ TRAO API diln bien kho lUdng, da anh hudng nghiem den nguon cung hang hoa, dich vu d mot so dia phUdng, d^y chi phi san xua't va gia ea tang Xet ve chu quan, nhu cau va sdc mua eo kha nang toan tang (nhat la thdi gian trUdc, va sau tet nguyen dan, hay thdi gian ve cuoi nam) da lam anh hudng den to'c tang gia noi chung Tong miic ban le hang hoa, dich vu xa hoi 12 thang dat 1.570.013 ty dong, tang 25% so vdi ciing ky nam 2009, neu trii yeu to'tang gia v l n tang 15% Trong d6, viec Ngan hang Nha nUdc (NHNN) dieu chinh tang ty gia ngoai te lien ngan hang, dac biet la vao 11/02/2010 va 18/8/2010 da lam tang gia hang hoa nhap khau, qua d6 lam tang gia nUdc Hdn niia, tong phUdng tien toan va dU nd tin dung tang nhanh vao nhiing thang cuoi nam 2010, vdi miic tang ca nam Ian lUdt dat 23% va 29,8% NhU vay, toe tang tong phUdng tien toan va dU nd tin dung deu vUdt muc tieu de cho ca nam 2010 (Ian lUdt la 20% va 25%), gay siic ep lam gia ca tang manh khong chi nam 2010 ma ca cac thang dau nam 2011 Ngoai ra, nhiing thay ddi chinh sach khac nhU chu trUdng ap dung trd lai miic thue sua't gia tri gia tang 10% thay cho miic 5% cua "goi kich cau" nam 2009 doi vdi mot so' mat hang hay viec thiic hien 16 trinh gia thi trUdng ddi vdi mot so' hang hoa dich vu nhU: dieu chinh tang gia dien, gia xang dau, hay tac dong sdm cua viec tang lUdng dU kien thUe hien tii thang 5/2011 ciing la nhiing tac nhan gay tang gia true tiep, la chUa ke den nhiing tac dong gian tiep thong qua ky vong lam phat eua ngudi dan e) Ty gia Ke tii dau nam 2010, ty gia nhin chung CO xu hudng tang Mae dii v^y, nhieu thdi diem giiia hai Ian dieu chinh ty gia cua QUAN LY KINH T£ PHAT TRIEN KINH TE - X A HCI VIET NAM 2010-2011: nam 2010 (vao thang va thang 8), ty gia cae ngan hang thUdng mai niem yet thap hdn miic tr£n cho phep cua NHNN, diing d miJe 18.950 18.970 ddng/USD Dae biet la vao 28/4/2010 ty gia tren thi trudng tii Ian dau tien da tha'p hdn miic ty gia niem yet cua cac ngan hang thUdng mai Tuy nhien, thi trUdng ngoai hoi v i n c6 nhiing thdi diem cang thing, buoc NHNN phai dieu chinh tang ty gia binh quan lien ngan hang mot each manh me Vao thang 2/2010, NHNN da tang ty gia lien ngan hang khoang 3,36% Den thang 8/2010, NHNN mot Ian niia buoc phai tang ty gia binh quan hen ngan hang them 2,1%, len miic 18.932 ddng/USD Tuy vay, cac bien phap dUdng nhu mdi chi khien ty gia chinh thiic chay theo ty gia tren thi trUdng ehd den Trong d6, dUdng nhU niem tin do'i vdi dong Viet Nam chUa dUde cai thien dang ke, va doanh nghiep, ngUdi dan chUa c6 du dong lUc de giam lUdng USD nam giii, chUa ke tam ly ky vong USD se eon tang gia tiep so vdi VND Ket qua la chenh lech giiia ty gia chinh thiic va ty gia tren thi trUdng tU cang n6i rong Cuoi thang 11/2010, ty gia tren thi trUdng tu tang vot len miic 21.380 - 21.450 ddng/USD Chenh lech ty gia giiia thi trUdng tu so vdi ty gia chinh thiic den 10% Day la miic chenh lech cao nha't lich sii tai chinh Viet Nam tii nam 1990 Tinh hinh chi dUdc cai thien dang ke sau Viet Nam thUc hien Nghi quyet 11 tii thang 2/2011 nham kiem che lam phat va ba't on kinh te'vi mo mot each toan dien Ket qua la ty gia da c6 xu hUdng on dinh trd lai, va tham chi giam lien tuc thcii gian gan day Chang han, tai thdi diem 28/4/2011, gia ban USD cua Ngan hang ngoai thUdng Viet Nam ehi 20.590 VND/USD, so vdi miic 20.875 VND/USD So41 (6/2011) P H A T T R I ^ N KINH T ^ - XA HOl VICT NAM 2010-2011: vao d i u thang 3/2011 va 20.882 VND/USD vao 21/2/2011 Vdi vi§c ap dung tran lai sua't huy dong USD, mot bo phan ngUdi dan va doanh nghiep da kem man ma hdn vdi viec gifl USD, ban lai cho he thdhg ngan hang Thanh khoan ngoai te eua cac ngan hang tren thi trudng chinh thdc da dUdc cai thien dang ke, tam thdi khien thi trUdng ngoai hoi thoat khoi tinh trang cang thang, quan hdn la thu hep dang ke thi trUdng tu f) Can can toan Tiep theo xu hudng tii nam 2008, tham hut can can vang lai tiep tuc giam, Udc dat khoang 3,9 ty USD nam 2010 Tuy vay, miic tham hut v i n tang kha nhanh quy IV/2010 (khoang 1,6 ty USD) so vdi thang dau nam (2,3 ty USD, tUdng dUdng 3,2% GDP) Tham hut can can vang lai chu yeu la tham hut can can thUdng mai Nam 2010, tham hut can can thUdng mai hang hoa dat khoang 6,9 ty USD, can can dich vu tham hut khoang 860 trieu USD TUdng tu, thu nhap d i u tU cung tham hut d mde 4,6 ty USD nam 2010 Cac khoan tham hut mot phan dUdc bu d i p bdi cac khoan chuyen giao (rong) vdi thang du Udc dat 8,4 ty USD nam 2010, tang 30,3% so vdi nam 2009 Trong t h a n g d i u nam 2010, can can von"* dat t h a n g du 10,8 ty USD, tang 38,6% so vdi Cling k^ nam 2009 Khoan t h a n g du chu yeu la thang dU b cae khoan muc FDI rong, vay t r u n g va dai h a n nUdc ngoai, d i u tU vao gia'y td c6 gia, tien va tien gxii Cu the, FDI rong dat t h a n g du 5,5 ty USD, tang 2,1% so vdi ciing kj^ nSm 2009, FDI ciia nUdc ngoai vao Viet Nam dat 6,1 ty USD, tang 4,3% Trong d6, vay trung va dai han nUdc ngoai rong dat thang dU 1,6 NGHIEN CIJW TRAO DPI [ J | J ^ ty USD, giam 10,4% so vdi ciing ky nam 2009, vay n g i n h a n rong dat thang dU 597 trieu USD, t a n g manh so vdi miie thang du 92 trieu USD ciing ky nam 2009 Cae khoan vay tang giai ngan cac khoan vay trung, dai han da cam ket va lai sua't thi trUdng qude te t h a p hdn lai s u i t thi trUdng nUdc TUdng tu, d i u tU vao giiy td c6 gia (FII), tien va tien gki deu dat thang dU, l i n lUdt d mdc 1,94 ty USD va 1,2 ty USD t h a n g dau nam 2010, tang manh so vdi ciing ky nam 2009 Do tinh trang d i u cd, gam giii ngoai te Idn nen kinh te, tinh trang buon lau (dac biet la buon lau vang) va loi, sai sot thong ke, khoan muc idi va sai sot tren can can toan quo'c tecdn kha idn (-12,1 ty USD) thang d i u nam 2010 Do do, cung vdi nhiing diln bien tren cua can can vang lai va can can voh, can can toan tong th§ dat tham hut khoang 3,53 ty USD thang diu nam 2010, Udc tham hut khoang 2,5 -3 ty USD ca nam 2010 NhU v^y, mUc tham hut can can toan da giam manh so vdi nam 2009 (7,8 ty USD) Tuy vay, xu hudng cai thien can can vang lai khong ben viing mot so' nguyen nhan TrUdc het la dong gop khong nhd cua kim ngach xuat khau nhom mat hang kim loai quy, da quy Chi rieng thang diu nam 2010, xua't khau va nhap khau vang va da quy da dat l i n lUdt 2,76 ty USD va 364 trieu USD Mat khac, toe tang trudng xua't khau hang hoa chUa dUdc ben viing Trong do, tri gia nhap k h i u cua cac nhom hang cin han che nhap khau vin tang manh (khoang 129,6% thang diu nam 2010 so vdi ciing ky 2009), mac dii diln bien mot phan nhap k h i u giam manh Chua C so' U#u ca nSra O So 41 (6/2011) QUAN LY KINH TE miUil NGHIEN Cli(U TRAP DPI nam 2009 dudi tac dong eua suy giam kinh te, day v i n la mot v i h de dang lUu tam Cuoi ciing, thu nhap tii d i u tU eua Viet Nam nUdc ngoai giam va d miie thap, eon ehi thu nhap dau tU tang manh g) Bdi song dan cU Ddi song nhiing ngUdi lam cong an lUdng ciing p h i n nao dUdc cai thi$n Miic lUdng tdi thieu da tang 20%, tU 650 nghin ddng/thang len 730 nghin ddng/thang Ty le ho ngheo nam 2010 Udc tinh 10,6%, giam so vdi miic 12,3% nam 2009 Nhu vay, ty le ngheo v i n tiep tuc dUde eat giam, tiep theo xu hUdng cua cac nam trUdc Trong do, t i n g Idp dan cU cd thu nhap trung binh eo quy mo cang Idn, va CO anh hudng cang Idn do'i vdi thay ddi h a n h vi tieu dung d Viet Nam Tuy vay, gia ca nhieu hang hoa, dich vu tieu diing tang cao nhiing thang cuoi nam 2010 va d i u nam 2011 ciing vdi thien tai lien tiep xay da anh hudng den ddi sdhg dan cU Dac biet, gia ca nhom thue pham va dich vu an uo'ng c6 miic tang manh nha't, nhom hang chiem ty kha Idn tieu diing eua ngUdi dan Van de ddi hoi cae bien phap an sinh xa hoi tich cUc va ben viing hdn, ben canh viec dn dinh nen kinh te vi mo Nhin chung, ke tii nam 2010, Viet Nam v i n tri dUde xu hudng tang trudng kinh te, md rong thUdng mai va thu hiit d i u tU triic tiep nUde ngoai Tuy nhien, nhiing xu hudng ciing di kem theo nhiing chuyen bien tich eUc ve mat cd ca'u Dau a'n dang chii y nha't thdi gian vufa qua chinh la viec Viet Nam tiep tuc do'i mat vdi bat dn PHAT TRIJN KINH T^ - XA HOI VltT NAM 2010-2011: kinh te vi mo, bUdc d i u ed nhiing bien phap manh va toan dien nham ling vdi va'n de C a c b i e n p h a p c h i n h s a c h c u a Viet N a m tii n a m 2010 De thue hien chu trUdng kiem soat, ngan ngiia tai lam phat cao, tii d i u nam 2010, Chinh phu da chi dao thUe hien cac giai phap bao dam dn dinh kinh te vi mo, ngan ngtfa tai lam phat cao trd lai va dat tdc tang trUcing kinh te khoang 6,5% nam 2010^ Nhiing giai phap ed ban ma Chinh phu ciing cae Bo, cae nganh da thiic hien la: Chi dao quyet liet viec thiic hien cac bien phap thao gS kho khan ve ed che chinh sach, vo'n, thu tuc h a n h chinh thiic day san xua't kinh doanh phat trien; giai quyet kip thdi nhieu chinh sach ho trd k h i c phuc hau qua cua thien tai, dich benh; thiic hien quyet liet cac bien phap day manh xua't k h i u , kiem soat nhap sieu - Dieu hanh chinh sach tai khoa chu dong thong qua cac bien phap: Dieu chinh chinh sach thue linh hoat, phii hdp vdi cam ket qude te nham h a n che nhap sieu, kiem che lam phat n h u gian thdi gian nop thue thu nhap thang cho cac doanh nghiep; dieu chinh kip thdi thue nhap khau do'i vdi cac nhom hang can kiem soat nhap khau va cac nhom hang c i n h a n che nhap k h i u (6 to nguyen chiec dUdi ehd, xe may nguyen chie'e; giam thue nhap khau xang dau, vang, gas va mot sd" loai vat tu, nguyen lieu nude ehua san xua't dUde ) Md rong ap dung thu tuc hai quan dien tOf de riit ngin thdi gian thong quan va tiet giam chi phi doi vdi hang hoa xua't khau Nghi quyet so 03/NQ-CP 15/01/2010 ve nhiing giai phap chu yeu chi dao, dieu hanh thUc hien phat trien kinh te - xa hoi va dU toan ngan sach Nha nU6c nam 2010 QUAN LY KINH T£ Sd'41 (6/2011) P H A T T R I J N KINH T ^ - XA HOl V I £ T NAM 2010-2011:., Phan dau tang thu, quan ly chi tieu chat che, tiet kiem ehi Tinh den het thang 9/2010: 25 Bo, Nganh, dia phUdng da tiet kiem hdn 2.700 ty dong ThUc hien ho trd von vdi lai s u i t Uu dai tii ngan sach dia phUdng cho cac doanh nghiep kinh doanh hang hoa thiet yeu du trii hang hoa binh dn gia - NHNN da thiic hien dieu chinh tang lai s u i t cd ban va lai s u i t tai cap vdh len 9%/nam, lai s u i t tai chiet k h i u 7%/nam tinh hinh lam phat c6 chieu hUdng gia tang; ddng thdi, dieu chinh tang t^ 1-1,25%/nam ddi vdi lai s u i t giao dich nghiep vu thi trudng md, lai sua't cho vay qua dem Cong t i e quan ly, dieu hanh gia dUde chi dao quyet liet tii d i u nam, c6 nhiing linh boat phu hdp vdi diln bien cua thi trUdng the gidi va nUde Khi gia ca thi trUdng CO bien dong theo xu the tang, da thiic hien giii dn dinh gia ban dien tii thang 3/2010, giii dn dinh gia ban than cho bdn ho tieu dung Idn ca nam (xi mang, giiy, phan bon, dien) Giam gia xang d i u gia the gidi ha, gian thdi gian dieu chinh gia gia the gidi tang Thiie hien giam thue, chi quy binh dn gia de giut dn dinh gia xang d i u tii thang den Giii dn dinh gia cUde van tai hanh khach; giam gia cUdc viln thong, giii dn dinh mot sd cUdc bUu chinh Giam thdi gian dieu chinh gia cac hang hoa dich vu Nha nUdc eon dinh gia Cung vdi boat dong tren, cac nganh, cac cip va td chiic doan the da trien khai ddng bo nhieu giai phap, chii nang cao hieu qua cac chUdng trinh h5 trd cho nong dan va ho ngheo de phat trien san xuat kinh doanh, tang thu nhap ChUdng trinh 135 giai doan 2006 2010 (Giai doan II) dUdc thUc hien tren dia ban 50 tinh Den ChUdng trinh ed ban ket thiic va dat dUde nhiing ket qua quan trong, gop phan phat trien kinh texa hoi va dn dinh ddi sohg nhan dan cac xa So 41 (6/2011) NGHIEN CUD TRAO 001 [ J ^ thon, ban dac biet kho khan vung ddng bao dan toe va viing mien niii Theo bao cao sd bo, tong vdn giai ngan cua ChUdng trinh 135 giai doan II dat 97,1% tong vdh diu tU cho ChUdng trinh Tuy vay, sU liing tiing viec liia chon Uu tien giiia tang trUdng kinh te va lam phat khien cac giai phap tren ehUa giai quyet dUde triet de v i n de dn dinh kinh te vi mo Ap lUe ddi vdi lam phat v i n Idn, va boc 16 nhiing b i t dn kinh te vi mo giai doan d i u nam 2011 Chinh vi vay, Chinh phu da ban hanh Nghi quyet 11/NQ-CP vao 24/2/2011, nhan manh nhiing giai phap chu yeu tap trung kiem che'lam phat, on dinh kinh te'vi mo, bao dam an sinh xa hoi Cu the, cac nhom giai phap dUde thiic hien ddng bo bao gdm: (i) ThUc hien chinh sach tien te chat che, than trong; (ii) Thiic hien chinh sach tai khda that chat, eit giam diu tU cong, giam boi ehi ngan sach nha nUde; (iii) Thiic day san xua't, kinh doanh, khuyen khich xuat khiu, kiem che nhap sieu, sii dung tiet kiem nang lUdng; (iv) Dieu chinh gia dien, xang d i u g i n vdi ho trd ho ngheo; (v) Tang cUdng bao dam an sinh xa hoi; va (vi) Day manh cong tac thong tin, tuyen truyen nham tang cUdng nhan thiic, ddng thuan doanh nghiep va nhan dan Theo tinh than cua Nghi quyet 11/NQCP, nhieu chinh sach cu the da dUdc ban hanh Chinh sach tien te da dUde thUe hien theo hudng that chat, the hien d viec giam chi tieu tang trUdng tin dung xudng 20%, ap dung vdi tat ca cac ngan hang, so vdi miie 23% cua ke hoach d i u nam Cae bien phap chinh sach tien te ciing dUdc thiic hien nham giam tinh trang la hoa va vang hoa De thu hep sU chenh lech vdi ty gia tren thi trUdng tu do, 11/02/2011, NHNN da dieu chinh ty gia chinh thiic 9,3%, mdc cao nhat ke tii giiia thap nien 1990 den QUAN LY KINH TE LUi'dil ' ' " ^ ^^ ^"^° °°' ^ ' ^^ Song song vdi do, NHNN da tich cUc tra, kiem tra, xii ly cac giao dich khong hdp phap tren thi trUdng tU do, qua tin hieu ve viec kien quyet xii ly cae giao dich Cd ban hdn, NHNN da ban hanh mot so' chinh sach nhu han che ddi tUdng dUdc phep vay ngoai te, t r i n lai s u i t huy dong do'i vdi ngoai te, qua khdi thong ddng vdh USD vao ngan hang, han che cac hoat dong vay O USD C the gay ap liie khoan ddi vdi ngan hang TUdng tu, NHNN eung dang nghien ciiu eac bien phap nham thu hep, tien tdi xoa bo giao dich vang mieng tren thi trUdng tU Cac bien phap chUa dUdc ban hanh, nen ehUa ed hieu lUc thiic thi Tuy nhien, mot sd^ phan ling don d i u da dUdc ghi nhan NgUdi dan da cd tam ly e ngai hdn do'i vdi nam giii vang mieng Trong do, khoang each chenh lech gia giiia gia vang nUde va gia vang quo'c te da dUde thu hep dang ke, c6 nhiing thdi diem chi khong dang ke Hdn nUa, thi trUdng vang dUdng nhU binh tinh hdn (the hien d gia ea tang, giam cham hdn) trUdc nhiing diln bien cua gia vang the gidi, dieu trai ngUde han so vdi tinh hinh cua cae nam trUdc Viet Nam cling da thUc hien mot sd^ bien phap n h i m thiic day san xuat, kinh doanh, qua bao dam an sinh xa hoi Vao d i u thang 4/2011, Thii tudng Chinh phu da ban hanh chinh sach cho phep gian thue thu nhap doanh nghiep nam 2010 thdi ban nam do'i vdi cac doanh nghiep nho va viia Bo Tai chinh hien dang dii thao quy dinh hudng d i n viec gian thue thu nhap Dieu giiip cae doanh nghiep nho va viia cd the tri cac hoat dong san x u i t kinh doanh, va tao viec lam cho ngUdi lac dong Ddng thdi, Chinh phu ciing da quyet dinh tang lUdng tdi thieu T^ 1/1/2011, miie lUdng tdi thieu eua doanh nghiep la 830.000 ddng/thang, miic lUdng cd ban ap QUAN Lt KINH TE PHAT TRiiN KINH TE - XA H O I VIET NAM 2010-2011: dung tai khu vUc nha nUdc, lUc lUdng vii t r a n g cung dUdc t a n g len 830.000 ddng/thang tii 1/5/2011 Tinh rieng khoan tang lUdng d khu vUe nha nude da eo tong gia tri len tdi 27.000 ty ddng, chiem 3,7% tong chi ngan sach nam 2011 Nhin chung, viec thiie hien cae bien phap Nghi quyet vdi tinh thiie cha't cao hdn Cac bien phap dUde ban hanh da c6 sii tham van rong rai cac chuyen gia, cong ddng doanh nghiep va cac td chiic kinh te - xa hoi khac Quan hdn, cae bien phap chinh sach dUdc thUe hien bdi canh ngUdi dan va doanh nghiep deu ed nhiing quan ngai sau sic ve tinh hinh kinh te vi mo, nen nhan dUdc sU ddng thuan cao Tinh toan dien eua cac giai phap ciing dUde coi trong, qua ciing lam tang hieu lUc thiie thi Mac dii vay, cong tac hoach dinh chinh sach n h i m kiem che lam phat, dn dinh kinh te vi md va thiic day phat trien kinh te - xa hoi thdi gian viia qua v i n eon ndi len mot sd^ van de sau day: Thii nhat, thii tU Uu tien giiia thiic day tang trudng kinh te va kiem che lam phat v i n ehUa dUde xac dinh ro De moi truSng kinh te vi mo trd nen lanh manh hdn sau mot thdi gian dai thiic day tang trUdng kinh te diia tren md rong tin dung va d i u tU, viec chap nhan danh ddi tang trudng thap n g i n han de dn dinh kinh te'vi mo dai han hdn la het siie c i n thiet Day ciing tiing la van de eon Ian ca'n giai doan 20072009, khien cac rui ro bat dn kinh te vi mo khong dUde giai quyet triet de va biing phat trd lai tii euo'i nam 2010 Thit hai, mac du da c6 nhiing tac dong tich ciic ban diu, cac bien phap chinh sach tien te dudng nhu lai dUdc thUc hien qua nhieu va qua don dap G i n day nha't, chi sau mot thdi gian n g i n NHNN ap t r i n lai s u i t huy dong USD va tang ty le dii trii bat So 41 (6/2011) PHATTRlgNKINH T^ - XA H O I VIET NAM 2010-2011: buoc ddi vdi tien g^i bang USD, NHNN chi nhanh Ho Chi Minh da de x u i t viec ap t r i n lai s u i t 0% ddi vdi tien giii USD cua cac td chde kinh te, khien cac td chiic kinh te c6 the lua ebon khong g^i tien vao ngan hang niia C i n nhan thUe r i n g cac bien phap chinh sach tien te ehi phat huy tac dung sau mot thdi gian tre nha't dinh (khoang thang) Chinh vi vay, viec thiic thi cae bien phap chinh sach tien te cin dUde thiie hien vdi "mot cai d i u lanh' va mot sU kien n h i n den chinh sach phat huy tac dung, thay vi ban hanh nhieu chinh sach don dap n h i m nhanh chong dat duoc muc tieu de (mac dii dieu kho thiic hien dUdc tren thUe te) Hdn niia, viec tranh sii dung nhieu bien phap chong len de lai dU dia chinh sach cho cd quan dieu hanh, phong nen kinh te c6 nhiing diln bien kho ludng hdn Thii ba, chinh sach tai khoa dUdng nhU ehUa CO nhieu bien phap theo hudng dn dinh kinh te vi mo Cac bien phap giam chi ngan sach chUa mang lai nhieu ket qua Danh muc du an cat giam dau tU nam van ehUa dat dUdc quy mo mong muo'n Trong do, cac bien phap ehi nham bao dam an sinh xa hoi dUdng nhU lai dUde quyet dinh va thiic hien r i t nhanh Dieu la r i t cin thiet nham tri dn dinh xa hoi va ddng thuan eua ngUdi dan, song cung gay i n tUdng r i n g cae bien phap giam chi dUdc thiic hien kha cham, eac bien phap tang ehi khac lai kha nhanh Ket luan Nam 2010 da chiing kien nhiing bUdc phuc hoi eua nen kinh te Viet Nam Tang truSng kinh te da nhanh hdn so vdi nam 2009, vdi nhiing dong gop nhieu hdn tU tang trUdng thUdng mai va d i u tU, ke ca d i u tU true tiep nUde ngoai Tuy vay, nhiing rui ro b i t dn kinh te vi mo tiem an tii trUde Sa'41 (6/2011) NGHIEN CIJll TRAO DPI [ J ^ 2010 chUa dUde giai quyet triet de Viet Nam tap trung vao ngan chan suy giam kinh te Vi vay, den nam 2010, cac bat dn da biing phat trd lai Cae bien phap manh me hdn nham kiem che lam phat va dn dinh kinh te vi mo da dUdc ban hanh va thiic thi, budc d i u mang lai mot so' chuyen bien tich ciic Tuy nhien, tinh hinh kinh te vi mo van cin tiep tuc dUdc theo doi de c6 nhiing bude dieu chinh vaJhoac can thiep phu hdp Bai hoc tii nhiing nam trUdc doi hoi Viet Nam c i n than hdn do'i vdi cac thach thiie kinh te - xa hoi tiem an Mot mat, Viet Nam can can bang hdn giiia muc tieu tang trUdng kinh te va lam phat Nhan thiic dUdc sU danh ddi giiia hai muc tieu nay, Viet Nam c i n nhiing phan tich sau sic, ky lUdng va c6 cd sd khoa hoc hdn ve boi canh kinh te - xa hoi n h i m xac dinh mdc Uu tien cho cae muc tieu Chinh d day, vai trd cua phan tich chinh sach va dU bao, eung nhu viec ban hanh va thiic thi chinh sach hieu qua, hieu liic la het siic quan Mat khac, ling vdi rui ro lam phat doi hoi phai c6 sii thohg nhat, dieu pho'i hdp ly hdn giiia cac chinh sach tai khoa va tien te, n h i m dat dUde muc tieu chung la dn dinh kinh te vi mo Ddng thdi, qua trinh dieu chinh chinh sach c i n tinh den viec tang dong liic thuc hien cac dieu chinh d cap thi trUdng Trong boi canh nen kinh te da phuc hoi tang trudng sau khiing hoang tai chinh the gidi Cling nhU giai doan thiic hien Chien lUdc phat trien kinh t e x a hoi 2011-2020, Viet Nam cin can nhac ky lUdng ve cac bien phap chinh sach kha dung Hoi nhap kinh te sau rong hdn se lam han che mot sd lUa chon chinh sach, lai lam nen kinh te trd nen d l tdn thUdng hdn trUdc nhiing bien dong ben ngoai Dieu khien dieu hanh kinh te vi mo va ling vdi cac ap liic xa hoi trd nen QUAN LY KINH TE imiiiii '"^"'^' ^^ ™*° °°' het siic phiic tap Thiic day tang trUdng kinh te nhanh va hen tuc phai ling vdi rui ro bat dn kinh te vi mo trd mot v i n de da dien, doi hoi phai c6 nhiing chinh sach kinh te, tai chinh, ^a hoi va ca chinh tri tren mot quan diem ddng bo Ve lau dai hdn, Viet Nam c i n tiep tuc nghien ciiu va lUa chon mo hinh phat trien mdi phii hdp hdn Mo hinh n i y c i n giii viing nhflng cau phan quan cua tang trudng, cae the che nen tang (dac biet la tUdng tac giiia Nha nUde thi trUdng hoi nhap), va eac chinh sach cai thien hieu qua phan bd nguon lUe (dac biet la voh) Trong qua trinh thiic d i y tang trUdng va cong nghiep hoa, Viet Nam c i n diia vao cac the che than thien hdn vdi thi trUdng va lien ket vdi kinh te khu vUc va the gidi Ngoai sU tich cUc, ehu dong va ddng thuan ciia ngUdi dan, doanh nghiep, Nha nUdc c i n khuyen khich sang tao va eo chinh sach ban che cac rui ro kinh te vi mo, xa hoi va moi trUdng Thong diep chinh d day la: tap trung ling vdi cac van de kinh te vi mo hien nay, Viet Nam c i n suy nghi va thiic QUAN LY KINH TE PHAT T R I ^ N K I N H T ^ - XA H | V I E T NAM 2010-2011: hien cac bien phap dai b a n hdn n h i m nang cao nang lUe the che, ket cau t i n g kinh te xa hoi, va cae lien ket qude te nham tan dung cac cd hoi mdi./ T A I LIEU THAM KHAO • Trang web eua Bo Ke hoach va D i u tu Truy cap tai: www.mpi.gov.vn • Trang web cua Tdng cue Thong ke Truy cap tai: www.gso.gov.vn • Trung tam thong tin tU lieu, Vien NCQLKTTW (2011), "Diln bien va binh luan tinh hinh kinh te nUdc va the gidi" So'01-2011 Vien NCQLKTTW (2010), Bao cao danh gia tdc dong cua hoi nhap kinh tequoic te doi vdi nen kinh te sau nam Viet Nam gia nhap WTO De an trinh chinh phu Vien NCQLKTTW (2011), Kinh te Viet Nam 2010 Dii thao thang 4/2011 • V6 Tri Thanh va Nguyin Anh DUdng (2009), Viet Nam sau nam gia nhap WTO: Cac bai hoc ["Vietnam after Two Years of WTO Accession: What Lessons Can Be Learnt"], Tap chi kinh te ASEAN, So'l, tr 115-35 So 41 (6/2011) ... ro rang Ke ta nam 2011, Viet Nam bat dau thUc hien Chien lUdc phat trien kinh te xa hoi cho giai doan 201 1-2 020, va Kehoach trien kinh te xa hoi nam 201 1-2 015 Cung nam 2011, Viet Nam tien hanh... che bien cao hdn so v6i xua''t khau cua cac nhom hang QUAN Lf KINH TE PHAT TRiiN KINH TE - XA HOI VIET NAM 201 0-2 011: nong - lam - thuy san va nhien lieu, khoang san Dieu phan anh viec chuyen... tii dau nam 2010, ty gia nhin chung CO xu hudng tang Mae dii v^y, nhieu thdi diem giiia hai Ian dieu chinh ty gia cua QUAN LY KINH T£ PHAT TRIEN KINH TE - X A HCI VIET NAM 201 0-2 011: nam 2010