CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM • Viet Nam is considered as one of the most vulnerable countries due to CC and sea level rise • If sea level rise of m, Viet Nam will loose about 12% of land, 23% of population will be affected • Typhoons occur more frequently with higher intensity • Temperature increases and change in rainfall pattern will affect agriculture and water resources Impacts of sea level rise 3m 2m 4m 1m 5m WB 2007 “Large percentage of Vietnam’s population and economic activities are located in these two river deltas 14% of Vietnam population would be impacted by a 1m SLR This is the largest percentage of impacted population among all 84 countries Vietnam impacted population would reach 35% with a 5m SLR The impact of SLR on Vietnam’s GDP and urban extent follow the impact on its population” Inundation in Mekong River Delta due to m Sea Level Rise Source: HMS Climate Change in Vietnam • Annual average temperature increases about 0.10C per decade In some summer months, temperature increases about 0.10.3oC per decade • More heavy rainfalls causing severe floods; • Rainfall decreases in dry season (Jul., Aug.) and increases in rainy season (Sep to Nov.) Source: Vietnam National communication O 23.0 Annual temperature C 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.0 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 Yea r 2004 Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of Temperature at A Luoi station 5000 m m Rainfall of Aug.Dec 4000 3000 2000 Year 1000 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of AugustDecember rainfall at A Luoi station Climate Change in Vietnam Cumulative tracks of tropical cyclones (1985–2005) [Nicholls et al , 2007] Typhoon trajectory moves southward and typhoon season shifts to later months of the year; Climate Change in Vietnam • High floods occur more frequently in the Central and Southern Vietnam • Drought happen every year in most regions of the country Climate Change Vietnam • ENSO has stronger effects on weather regime and climatic features in various areas of Viet Nam; • Sea level rises from 2.5-3 cm per decade in the last century Impacts on Coastal Zone Vulnerability of delta dwelling populations [Source: Nicholls et al., 2007] Impacts of Climate Change Water Respurses Public Health Environ ment Agriculture Climate Change Tourism Energy Forestry Impact on Agriculture Yield of rice decrease • Shift of planting boundary: By 2070s, by 10% for every 1oC tropical trees/ crops would be able to grow at the altitude 100-550 meters higher and increase in growing move 100-200 km northwards compared to season minimum present temperature (IPCC AR4 WG2TS, 2007) • Large areas in Mekong and Red River deltas would be under salt water due to sea level rise Source: Vietnam National communication Impacts on Water Resources • Instability in rainfall would cause more severe floods in rainy season and droughts in dry season • Increase in frequency and intensity of typhoons, storms would cause high floods & inundation, flash floods, landslide and erosion • Increasing water shortage and growing water demand threaten water supply, water use conflicts Source: Vietnam National communication Impacts on Forestry • Decrease of mangrove forest, due to sea level rise • Forest with drought stand varieties would increase due to low soil moisture and high evapotranspiration • Biodiversity degradation: extinction of endangered species; • Increasing risk of forest fire; • Increase and wide spread of plant pests and diseases Source: Vietnam National communication Impacts on Aquaculture & Fisheries • Sea level rise would reduce fresh water creatures in rivers & estuaries, high temperature – reduce high valuable sub-tropical fishes; • Habitat loss for young creatures due to mangrove decrease; • Reducing sea products productivity and commercial quality due to: – Migration of fishes; – Reduction of body weight Source: Vietnam National communication Impacts on Coastal Zone • Large areas of the Mekong, Red River deltas and Central coastal zone would be inundated due to sea level rise • Coastal & estuarine wetlands would be affected due to frequent floods, severe drought & salinity (Ca Mau, Ho Chi Minh City, Vung Tau and Nam Dinh) • Livelihood of coastal population will be affected by more severe storms, flood, drought and sea level rise Projections for a m sea level rise: 15,00020,000 km2 of Mekong River delta flooded, affecting 3.5 to million people, respectively IPCC AR4, 2007 Impacts on Energy, Transportation • Oil, gas platforms would be affected by typhoons, storms; • Seaports and roads designed basing on historical sea level would be affected • Less energy generation due to drought ; • Unstable flow regimes may lead to conflict in water regulation at hydropower stations • More energy consumption for due to high temperature and humidity Source: Vietnam National communication Impacts on Human Health Negative Impact Very high confidence Malaria: contraction and expansion, changes in transmission season High confidence Increase in malnutrition Increase in the number of people suffering from deaths, disease and injuries from extreme weather events Increase in the frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases from changes in air quality Change in the range of infectious disease vector Reduction of cold-related deaths Medium confidence Increase in the burden of diarrheal diseases Positive Impact ... Resources • Instability in rainfall would cause more severe floods in rainy season and droughts in dry season • Increase in frequency and intensity of typhoons, storms would cause high floods & inundation,... southward and typhoon season shifts to later months of the year; Climate Change in Vietnam • High floods occur more frequently in the Central and Southern Vietnam • Drought happen every year in most... higher intensity • Temperature increases and change in rainfall pattern will affect agriculture and water resources Impacts of sea level rise 3m 2m 4m 1m 5m WB 2007 “Large percentage of Vietnam’s