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A methodology for validation of integrated systems models with an application to coastal-zone management in south-west sulawesi
A METHODOLOGY FOR VALIDATION OF INTEGRATED SYSTEMS MODELS WITH AN APPLICATION TO COASTAL-ZONE MANAGEMENT IN SOUTH-WEST SULAWESI Tien Giang Nguyen Promotion committee: Prof dr.ir H.J Grootenboer Prof dr P.G.E.F Augustinus Prof dr S.J.M.H Hulscher Dr J.L de Kok University of Twente, chairman/secretary University of Utrecht, promoter University of Twente, promoter University of Twente, assistant promoter Prof dr.ir A.Y Hoekstra Prof dr.ir H.G Wind Prof dr.ir A.E Mynett Prof dr S.M de Jong Dr M.J Titus University of Twente University of Twente UNESCO-IHE / WL | Delft Hydraulics University of Utrecht University of Utrecht ISBN 90-365-2227-7 Printed by: PrintPartners Ipskamp, Enschede Copyright © 2005 Tien Giang Nguyen All rights reserved A METHODOLOGY FOR VALIDATION OF INTEGRATED SYSTEMS MODELS WITH AN APPLICATION TO COASTAL-ZONE MANAGEMENT IN SOUTH-WEST SULAWESI DISSERTATION to obtain the doctor’s degree at the University of Twente, on the authority of the rector magnificus, prof.dr W.H.M Zijm, on account of the decision of the graduation committee, to be publicly defended on Friday August 26, 2005 at 15.00 by Tien Giang Nguyen born on April 12, 1976 in Hanoi This dissertation has been approved by: prof dr P.G.E.F Augustinus prof dr S.J.M.H Hulscher dr J.L de Kok Promoter Promoter Assistant Promoter To the memory of my father Contents Preface…….……………………………………………………………………… 11 Introduction………………………………………………… ….………… 13 1.1 General introduction……………………………………………….…… 1.2 Background………………………………………………………….…… 1.2.1 Systems approach………………………………………………… 1.2.2 Integrated approach and Integrated Assessment…………………… 1.2.3 Integrated management and policy analysis……………… … 1.3 The problem of validating Integrated Systems Models………………… 1.4 Research aim and research questions…………………………… 1.5 Case study description…………………………………………………… 1.5.1 RaMCo…………………………………………………………… 1.5.2 Study area………………………………………………………… 1.6 Outline of the thesis……………………………………………………… 13 14 14 19 21 23 25 26 26 27 31 Methodology……….… ……… …………………………………………… 33 2.1 Introduction …………… …………………………………………… 2.2 Literature review………………………………………………………… 2.3 Concept definition.……………………… ………………………… 2.4 Conceptual framework of analysis………………………………… 2.5 Procedure for validation………………………………………… 2.6 Conclusion……………………………………………………………… 33 34 36 38 40 42 Validation of an integrated systems model for coastal-zone management using sensitivity and uncertainty analyses…………………………………… 45 3.1 Introduction ……… ………………………………………………… 3.2 Methodology….…………………………………………… …………… 3.2.1 Basics for the method……………………………………………… 3.2.2 The testing procedure……………………………………………… 3.2.3 The sensitivity analysis……………………………………… 3.2.4 The elicitation of expert opinions…………………………… 3.2.5 The uncertainty propagation…………………………………… 3.2.6 The validation tests………………………………………………… 3.3 Results…………………………………………………………………… 3.3.1 Sensitivity analysis………………………………………………… 3.3.2 Elicitation of expert opinions……………………………………… 45 46 46 47 47 49 50 51 51 51 51 Contents 3.3.3 Uncertainty analysis……………………………………………… 3.3.4 Parameter-Verification test………………………………………… 3.3.5 Behaviour-Anomaly test…………………………………………… 3.3.6 Policy-Sensitivity test……………………………………………… 3.4 Discussion and conclusions……………………………………………… 3.5 Appendices………………………………………… 57 59 59 60 60 62 A new approach to testing an integrated water systems model using qualitative scenarios…………………………………………………… 65 4.1 Introduction…………………………………………… ……… 4.2 Validation methodology.… ……………………………… …………… 4.2.1 Overview of the new approach………………………………… 4.2.2 The detail procedure……………………………………………… 4.3 The RaMCo model………………………………………………… 4.3.1 Land-use/land-cover change model………………………………… 4.3.2 Soil loss computation……………………………………………… 4.3.3 Sediment yield……………………………………………………… 4.4 Formulation of scenarios for testing……………………………………… 4.4.1 Structuring scenarios……………………………………………… 4.4.2 Developing qualitative scenarios for testing……………… 4.5 Translation of qualitative scenarios……………………………………… 4.5.1 Fuzzification……………………………………………………… 4.5.2 Formulation of inference rules…………………………………… 4.5.3 Application of the inference rules……………………………… 4.5.4 Calculation of the output value………………………………… 4.5.5 Testing the consistency of the scenarios…………………………… 4.6 Results…………………………………………………………………… 4.7 Discussion and conclusions……………………………………………… 65 66 66 67 69 70 72 73 73 74 75 77 77 78 81 81 81 82 84 Validation of a fisheries model for coastal-zone management in Spermonde Archipelago using observed data………………………………… 87 5.1 Introduction………………………………………………… …… 5.2 Case study.…………………… ………………… ….………………… 5.2.1 Fisheries in the Spermonde Archipelago, Southwest Sulawesi…… 5.2.2 Fisheries modelling in RaMCo………………………………… 5.2.3 Data source and data processing…………………………………… 5.3 Validation methodology……………………………………… 5.3.1 Sate of the art……………………………………………………… 5.3.2 The proposed method……………………………………………… 5.3.3 Fishery production models………………………………………… 5.4 Results…………………………………………………………………… 5.4.1 Calibration………………………………………………… 5.4.2 The pattern test…………………………………………………… 5.4.3 The accuracy test………………………………………… 5.4.4 The extreme condition test………………………………………… 5.5 Discussion and conclusions……………………………………………… 87 88 88 89 90 91 91 93 94 95 95 97 100 100 100 Contents Discussions, conclusions and recommendations…………………… 103 6.1 Introduction……………………………………… …………………… 6.2 Discussions.……… ……………………… ….………………………… 6.2.1 Innovative aspects……………………………….…… ………… 6.2.2 Generic applicability of the methodology………………………… 6.2.3 Limitations………………………………………………………… 6.3 Conclusions……………………………………………………………… 6.3.1 Concept definition………………………………………………… 6.3.2 Methodology……………………………………………………… 6.4 Recommendations……………………………………………………… 6.4.1 Other directions for the validation of integrated systems models… 6.4.2 Proper use of integrated systems models………………………… 103 103 103 104 104 105 105 106 109 109 110 References……………………………………………………………………… 111 Symbols…………………………………………………………………………… 123 Acronyms and abbreviations…………………… 127 Summary………………………………………………………………………… 129 Samenvatting…………………………………………………………………… 133 About the author……………………………………………………… 139 10 Contents ... concerns into governance Environmental values 3) Vertically integrated planning and management Tiers of governance 4) Integration across environmental media Water, land and air 5) Integrated environmental... models, of scales, of issues, and of stakeholders Scrase and Sheate (2002) give a more detailed and critical review on the uses and meanings of integration, integrated approach and integrated assessment... 1.2.2 Integrated approach and Integrated Assessment…………………… 1.2.3 Integrated management and policy analysis……………… … 1.3 The problem of validating Integrated Systems Models? ??……………… 1.4 Research aim