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35(4), 3/0-377 Tap chi CAC KHOA HOC V£ TRAI B A T \ ^ A N HAN, HOANG MAC HOA LANH THO TAY NGUYEN GAN V6l KICH BAN BIEN DOI KHI HAU NGUYEN LAP D A N ' , NGUYEN TRQNG HIEU^ VU THI THU LAN' E-mail: phongtnnm@gmail.eoin Viin D(a ly, Vien Hdn tdm Khoa hgc vd Cong nghi ^101 Nam Trung tdm KHCN Khi lufrng, Thdy vdn vd Moi truang Ngay nhanbai: - - l.Mff dau Lanh tho Tay Nguyen co ranh gioi gan trimg voi dia giai hanh chinh ciia tinh Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dak Lak, Dak Nong va Lam Dong Ve phia bac, giap voi viing ritng niii ciia tinh Quang Nam, phia nam va tay nam giap cac tinh Binh Thuan, Dong Nai, Binh Phuoc Phia dong giap cae tinh dong bang ven bien Nam Trung Bo: Quang Ngai, Binh Dinh, Phii Yen, Khanh Hoa, Ninh Thuan, Phia tay giap Cpng hoa dan chu Nhan dan Lao va Vuong quoc Cam Pu Chia, Di?n tich t\i nhien toan Ianh th6 Tay Nguyen la 54.473,79 km^ Tay Nguyen co h? thong song Ion, thugng song Se San, thugng song Ba, thugng song Srepok va thugng song Dong Nai, Theo thong ke, din nSm 2009 dan s6 ciia tinh Tay Nguyen la 5.107.437 nguoi Tay Nguyen dugc ggi la noc nha Dong Duong, la dia ban quan trgng ciia ca nuoc ve kinh t e - x a hgii va an ninh quoc phong Tay Nguyen co trii lugng nuoc nam phong phii, nhung vao thai ky miia kho, ban han vin xay lien tiep Han han thucmg gay anh huong tren dien rgng Tuy it la nguyen nhan true li6p gay t6n thit vi nguai, nhung thiet hai ve kinh te - xa hpi va moi truang ban han gay la rat Ian [1] Bai bao se phan tich danh gia thyc trang han han, hoang mac hoa ISnh tho Tay Nguyen, gin voi kich ban bien doi hau the ky XXI Day la m^t phSn ket qua cua de tai "Nghien ciru CO sa khoa hgc cho giai phap tong thi giai quyet cac mau thuan Igi ich vi^c khai thac sit d\mg tai nguyen nuoc lanh tho Tay Nguyen", m3 so TN3/T02 thugc Chuang trinh Khoa hgc va Cong nghe phuc vu phat trien kinh te - xa hgi TSy Nguyen, ma so TN3/11-15 Thirc t r a n g h^n han, p h a n bo khong gian vk dien bien ban lanh tho T i y Nguyen 2.1 Thirc trgng hgn hdn _ Chi khoang thoi gian 1990 - 2000 tren ISnh tho Tay Nguyen, han han da xay vao cac n3m 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997 vk 1998 voi dien tieh liia bj ban mSi vy tir 2000 din 130 000 Dgt han n5m 1998 da gay ban cho 10.700ha Iiia nuac vy Dong Xuan (mat trSng 5.320 ha), 13.330 Iua vy miia (mat trang 2.280 ha) Dicn tieh cSy an qua v^ cSy eong nghiip bj han la 110 630 (bi chdt la 13.760 ha), rieng ca phe di?n tich bi ban la 74.400 (bj chet 13.760 ha) So nguoi bi thieu nuac sinh hoat dgt han len den hon 770.000 nguai Gan day nhat, nam 2003 tren luu virc s6ng Srepok da c6 khoang 40.400 ea phd bj han, thi?t hai uac tinh len toi 277 ty d6ng Den nam 2008 Tay Nguyen da xay dyng 1.360 cong trinh bao gom: ho chua 760 cong trinh, dap dang 558 cong trmh, tram bom 42 cong trinh, so voi nang luc tuoi thiet ke cac c6ng trinh chi dap iing hieu suat tuoi dugc tren 60% thyc tudi [2] Theo bao eao thdng nSm 2013 ciia Bg Nong nghi?p va Phat triSn Nong th6n, tii thing 8/2012, hau ENSO boat dgng manh da tac dgng xiu den nguon nuoc cac tinh Tay Nguyen gay thi^u nuoc, han han anh huang rat Ian din san xuat cufli vy Dong Xuan 2012-2013, d i u vy He Thu 2013 vi nuoc sinh boat ciia nhan dan, theo thflng ke [3] bj anh huong n$ng n i nhat la ckc tinh Dak LSk, Dak Nong, Gia Lai, Kon Turn Da CO 39.607 cay bj thieu nuoc bao Ion o Tay Nguyen dSu bj tbiia hyt nuoc nghiem gom: Ilia 11.036 ba, ca phe 23.921 ha, cay khac trgng, nhieu ho chira nho da can hoac gan xuflng 5007 ha; d6 han nSng dk Iam mat trSng 3857 den myc nuoc chet khong du tuai suot vy gay Hau het cac ho chua thiiy lgi, thuy dien vira va ban han (bdng 7) BSng Di^n tich h^n han cac tinh Tay Nguyen (Bao cao 12/03/2013 ciia Bq Nong nghigp va Phat trien Nong th6n) STT Tinh Di$ n tich gieo trdng t h i / c t l (ha) Kon Tum Gia Lai Ddklik Dih NOng Lam DAng Ting cOng 6920 26.630 31.444 4.027 11.070 50.091 Dig h^n Mn (ha) 2.044 1.174 22.144 13.186 1.416 39.964 Trong dd (ha) LCia 605 793 6698 1.124 1,416 11.036 CdPhe 14.525 9.293 cay khac 1.136 361 721 2.769 ^3.921 5.007 103 t i l n g (ha) 500 255 3247 4,002 Danh gia ve kinh te, tinh Gia Lai uoc tinh thj|t hai ban han gay khoang 196,817 ty ddng cay ca phe thiet hai 144,880 ty dflng [4] Nguyen vi trung Tiy Nguyen Tuy nhien, tan suit ban rat thap, nhieu nhat d Bufln Ma Thugt chi den 6% Tinh dSn 12/04/2013 tinh Dkk Lak co khoang 3486 bi mSt trAng, 3047 liia nuoc, 103 ngfl, 278 ca phe Thift hai ve san xukt uoc tinh hon 1182 ty dflng Tai phfl Bufln Ma Thugt viec cdp nudc sinh hoat miia khfl nam 2013 chi dap iing dugc 50% nhu eSu dimg nuoc [5] Thing XI: Ii thang cufli ciing ciia miia mua song d hau het cic nai, trir Bao Lgc, ban lac die xEiy mgt sfl nam nhit li d bac Tay NguySn Tin suit han tren dudi 20%, chiing to miia han thyc sy bit diu d Kon Tum, Gia Lai vi chdm bit dau d cic noi khac CAc nguySn nhSn chinh giy hgn hkn d Tiy Nguyen vira xiy n5m 2013 do: - Miia mua nSm 2012 kit thuc som hon binh thucmg 1-1,5 thing, tflng lugng mua ci n5m thieu hyt so vdi trung binh nhieu nam 20-30% cac thing miia mua thilu hyt khoing 40% dfl tir thing den cu6i nim 2012 lugng bflc boi dat 150-250 mm, thing va thing 2/2013 lugng bflc hoi Idn, ISn tai 400-600mm - Myc nudc vi dong chay tren cac sflng sufli thieu hyt so vdi trung binh nhi^u nSm tu 20 dia 60%, nhilu sflng sufli nhfl bj c^n ki?t, myc nudc ngam bj thdp 2.2 PhSn bo khong gian vd dien biin th&i gian hgn hdn 2.2.1 Tdn sudt vd miia hgn Lien quan chjtt che vdi sy hinh miia khfl d^u d$n hing nim vi stf phSn b6 thdt thudng ciia lugng mua tren mgt s6 dja diem mOt so nim, tan suat h^n d T3y Nguyen cic thing nhu sau (bdng 2): Thing X: van Ii mgt nhiing thing mua nhilu song lic die cd ban d mflt sfl noi bdc Tay Thing XII: raiia mua ket tbiic, mua khfl han 4p den, tin suit han len den tren 75% d bdc Tay Nguyen, 60% d trung Tay Nguyen vi ph6 bien 40 - 60% d nam Tay Nguyen, trir Bio Lgc chi 12% Thing 1: C6 th€ eoi thing li thing han n^g nhdt d Tiy Nguyen vdi tin suat ban tren 90% d bic Tiy Nguyen, tren 80% d trung Tay Nguyen vi 60 80% d nam Tay Nguyen, trir Bio Lgc chua din 30% Thing II: Han thing II chi thua kem thing dfli chlit Tdn sudt len tdi 75 - 90% d bic Tay Nguyen, trung Tiy NguySn va khoing 30 - 60% d nam Tay Nguyen, trir Bao Lflc chi 14% Thing HI: Tin sudt giim di ro rft d bic TSy Nguyen, chi 20 - 60%, van rit cao d trung Tiy Nguyen, 70 - 85% va kha thdp d nam Tiy Nguyen, kS ci vimg Bao Lgc, chi 15 - 30%, Thing IV: Mua ban nhanh chdng kSt thiic d bic Tiy Nguyen, nam Tay Nguyen (tin suat han dudi 15%) vi chi cdn ding kg d trung Tiy Nguyen (25 30%) Thing V; Miia han ehdm diit hoin toan tren hau 311 het lanh tho Tiy Nguyen, rieng vitng ban noi tieng nhu Ayunpa, han van xay suot cac thing , i s ,, ,n ,„„, mua mua, voi tan suat khoang 10 - 40% ** Nhu v$y, miia han d Tiy Nguyen keo dai tii thing IX den thing IV, tuong doi dai d bac Tay Nguyen, trung Tiy Nguyen va tuong dfli ngan d nam Tay NguyeiL _i i^ , ^ ,• , ^ Tan suat han tung thang d bic va trung T- ^i - ~ L-^ L T- vi Tay Nguyen cung nhieu hem o nam Tay Nguyen Xuat hien hai viing cd tan suat h ^ dac bi^t d Tiy NguySn la d ^ biflt cao d Ayunpa vi dac bi^t thip d Bao Loc B i n g T i n sudt hgn cac t h i n g (%) Trgm I l l _ III IV V VI Vll VIII IX X XI Kon Tum 94 76 24 6 0 21 Xll 79 Pleiku 90 80 58 14 2 18 76 Ayunpa 100 83 85 30 12 33 3 61 BuSn Ma Thu^t 84 S8 70 26 0 0 6 60 56 oak Nong 62 32 15 0 0 0 12 Da Lgt 70 56 28 0 0 44 BaoLfr; 26 14 18 2 0 0 12 2.2.2 So thdng hgn trung binh Trong thdi ky 1960 - 2009, s6 thing ban trung binh tuong doi nhiSu d bic Tiy Nguyen, trung Tiy Nguyen, nhieu nhat d Ayunpa va tuang dfli it d nam Tiy Nguyen, it nhat d phia nam tmh Lim Dong, tieu bieu la Bio Lgc Han dien bien rat phiic tap, ting len hoac giim di tit niia thap ky niy sang nua thap ky khic Cd D|a S\&m 1961 -1965 the nhin thiy dieu qua diSn biSn hi mia thap ky diu, 1961 - 1965, den cac niia thip ky cufli, 2001 -2005vi2006-2010(6dng5) So vdi trung bmh nhieu nam nita thip ky 1961 1965, ban nang ban d Pleiku, Bufln Me Thu0t, Di Lat va ban nhg hon rfl r^t d hai nita th^p kj' 1966 - 1970, 1971 - 1975 a Budn Me Thuflt, Da Lat, Bio Ldc, rieng Pleiku nang hem chut it Bang s thang h jin trung binh ckc nira t h | p ky va cac thoi kj' Kon Tum D i k Nflng 1966-1970 1971-1975 1976-1980 4,0 1981-1985 3,8 1986-1990 3.4 1991-1995 3,6 1996-2000 2,4 2001-2005 3,6 2006-2010 3,5 1980-1999 3,4 0,S 0.9 LiSn tiep hai nua thip ky 1976 - 1980 vi 1981 1985, ban nh? hon so vdi trung binh nhiSu n5m tren tit ci cie tinh Trong niia thap ky 1986 - 1990, ban ning d Kon Tum, Ayunpa, Dik Nflng, Da L^t, Bao Lgc song nh? han d Pleiku, Buon Me Thugt Trong cac niia th§p ky 1991 - 1995, 1996 - 2000, 2001 - 2005 ciing cd tinh trang h^n khflng tang hay giim dflng nhdt tren cic tinh ciia Tiy Nguyen Ding chii J Ii, vio niia thgip kJ gdn diy, 2006 -2010, han ning hon d bdc Tiy NguySn song nh? hon d trung Tiy NguySn vi nam Tay Nguyfin so vdi trung binh nhiSu nim Theo (bdng 3), so vdi thdi kJ 1960 - 2009 va thdi ky 1980 - 1999, han nang hon d nhilu noi thugc bdc Tay Nguyen (Kon Tum, Ayunpa), song nh? hon d trung Tay NguySn vi nam Tiy Nguyen Cd dieu li, muc chenh l?ch giiia hai thdi ky khflng qui 0,2 thing ban Han ban, hoang mac hda gin vdi k|ch ban bidn doi hau lanh tho TSy Nguyen 3.L Kich bdn bien doi hpu Idnh thi TSy Nguyen thi ky XXI Vift Nam da tiing xiy dyng va cflng bo nhieu kjch bin BDKH, nudc bien dang (NBD) khic nhau: Kich bin BDKH, NBD nam 1994, kjch bin BDKH, NBD 1998, kjch ban BDKH, NBD 2009 va kjch ban BDKH, NBD 2012 diy, kich bin BDKH, NBD 2012 thyc chit li phien ban dugc dieu chinh tii kich bin BDKH, NBD 2009 tren mgt sfl nguyen tic co bin, trudc het li cap nhit cic thong tin ve BDKH tren thS gidi ciing nhu nudc Cic tic gii da xay dyng kjch ban BDKH, NBD theo miic kjch ban phat thai khic nhau, phit thai cao, phat thai trung binh, phat thai thap Tuy nhien, hoin cinh chung ciia the gidi vi Vi?t Nam hi§n cic kjch bin BDKH cdn cd nhCtng dilm chua chac chdn, v|y mite kjch bin duge dimg li kjch bin Irung binh sS co mice dg on dinh nhdt djnh dyng bai bio la kich bin trung binh, ngi dung chil yeu la muc tSng nhiSt dg trung buih nim, cic miia: Xuan (X), he (H), thu (T) vi dflng (D) vio cac nam cuoi ciia moi thip k;^ the ky XXI Theo kich bin, nhiet trung binh nim va nim 2020 tang len 0,5°C so vdi thdi kJ 1980 -1999 tren hiu het cac tinh, trir Dik Nong, Lim Dflng chi ting 0,4°C; vio nam 2050 d Lim Dong tang tdi 0,8°C, 1,2°C d Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dik l i k va 1,0°C d Dak Nflng; vio nam 2100 ting Ien 2,3°C d Kon Turn, Dak Lik, 2,0°C d Dak Ndng va len den 2,5°C d Gia Lai vi 2,8°C d Lam Dflng Ve ca bin, muc tang nhiet dg cac giai doan tuang doi cao d Lam Ddng, thu den la Gia Lai, Kon Turn, Dik Lik va thip nhat d Dik Nflng So vdi muc tang cua nhigt dg trung binh nam, miic tang ciia nhiet dg mua ddng vio nim 2020 chi sai khic vdi muc tang ci nim O.^C, vio nim 2050 sai khic den 0,2°C va den nam 2100 sai khic den 0,4°C Dang chu y la, sy sai khac d diy li mite ting nhi?t dfl trung binh miia dong thap hon miic ting nhiet dg trung binh nSm So vdi muc tang cua nhi?t dg trung binh nim, miic ting ciia nhiet dfl trung binh miia xuin vio nam 2020 chi sai khac den 0,1°C, vio nam 2050 chi sai khac dSn 0,2°C, vio nim 2100 sai khic d^n 0,4°C Sai khac d diy ph6 bien mite ting nhi?t 3.2 Ngi dung kjch bdn BBKH lanh thS Toy Nguyen dg miia xuin thap hon muc ting nhi?t dO trung Theo kieh ban BDKH, NBD cho ViSt Nam, binh nim nhi?t dg trung binh ISnh thfl Tiy Nguyen se ting So vdi miic ting cua nhigt dg trung bmh nam, khoing 0,4 - O.S^C vao nim 2020, 1,1 - 1,5^ vio nSm 2050 vi 2,0 - 2,8°C vio nim 2100 Ding Iuu miic ting ciia nhi?t dfl trung bbih mita he vio nim y la miic tang nlii?t d0 nhidu nhdt d Lim D6ng, noi 2020 sai khic den 0,2''C, vao nim 2050 sai khic CO nhigt dg tuong ddi thdp vi han bin tuong doi it dSn 0,3°C, vio nim 2100 sai khic den 0,7''C Nhiing sai khic d day bien miic tang nhiSt Mire ting nhiSt dg khong dong ddu cic miia, miia ddng, miia xuin it han vi miia he, mCia dg trung binh miia he cao bon mire ting nhi?t dfl trung binh nim, ro nhat d Lam Dong, Dik Nflng thu tang nhieu ban so vdi miic tang ciia nhiSt dg trung binh nim So vdi miic tang ciia nhi?t dg trung binh nim, Cfing theo kjch ban BDKH, NBD ndi trSn, lugng miic ting ciia nhiffdfl trung binh miia thu vio nim mua ianh thfl Tiy NguySn s5 tSng 0,3 - 0.9% vao 2020 chi sai khic 0,rC, vio nim 2050 ciing chi nim 2020, 0,3 - 2,5% vio nim 2050 vi 0,6 - 4,8% 0,1°C vao nim 2100 chi sai khic 0,2*'C Thflng vio nim 2100 Lugng mua ei nim tang len nhd thudng mite ting ciia nhift dfl trung binh mua thu lugng mua ting miia he, miia thu cao hon miic ting ciia nhift dg trung binh nim lugng mua miia dflng, miia xuin vdn giim Ding Nhu v§y, mire tang ciia nhift dg miia \ii, m ^ luu ^ Ii, Lam Dong li nai cd lugng mua ting it nhat thu cao ban miia dflng, miia xuin thap ban miic so vdi cic tinh khic ting ciia nhift dfl trung binh nam Sy sai khic niy 3.2.1 Kjch bdn tmng binh ve nhi^t dfS cing ve cuoi thi ky cing rd n^t, nhat Ii d vimg niii Kjch ban nhi?t dfl cho Tiy Nguyen dugc sii tuong doi cao Lim Dong (bdng 4) Bang Mt>c tang nhi^t dg trung tiinh nam (N) miia ddng (D), mua xuan (X), miia he (K), miia thu (T) so v6^ thfri ky 1960 -1999 theo kjch bin phit thai trung binh (B2), (°C) 0.5 0.6 0,5 0.5 D6ng 3.2.2 Kich bdn tmng binh vi lugmg mua So vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999, miic tang ciia lugng mua nam vao nam 2020 chi li 0,3 - 0,4% tren tinh: Kon Tum, Dik Lik, Dak Nong va Lam Dflng li 0,9% d tinh Gia Lai, vio nam 2050 la 0,3 1,2% d tinh ndi tren vi 2,5% d tinh Gia Lai, vio nam 2100 phd bien tren dudi 2%: 2,1% d Kon Tum; 2,4% d Dak Lak; 1,7% d Dik Nflng song len den 4,8% d Gia Lai va ngugc Iai chi 0,6% d Lam Dong Khac vdi nhift dfl, mite thay ddi cua lugng mua cac miia rat khac vi khac vdi miic thay dfli ciia lugng mua nim De dang phan bift mite giam cua lugng mua miia khfl noi chung, bao gflm miia dflng (XII - 11) vi miia xuan (111 - V), ngugc lai tang miia mua, bao gdm miia be (VI VIII) va miia thu (IX - XI) Mua giim so vdi thdi ky 1980 -1999 cua lugng mua miia dong vao nim 2020 phd bi6n li 3%; Kon Tum, Dik Nflng -2,6 - -2,7%, Gia Lai, Dik Lik: -2,0 -^ -3,0%, Lam Dflng giam 3,8%, vio nam 2050 giam 7-8%, Lam Dflng giam 10,3%; vao nim 2100, neng Lam Dflng giam 19,7% Miic giam so vdi 1980 - 1999 ciia lugng mua miia xuan vao nam 2020 la tren dudi 2%; -2,7% d Dik Nflng; -2,1% d Kon Tum; -2,0% d Gia Lai vi -1,7 - -1,8% d Dik Lak, Lam Dong, vio nam 2050 la trfn dudi 5%: -6,6% a Dik Nflng; d Kon Turn, Gia Lai, -4,7% d Lam Ddng, -4,6% d Dak Lik; vao nim 2100 phd bien tren dudi 10%,riengDak Ndng giim 12,7% Mire tang so vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999 cua lugng mua miia be vao nam 2020 khoang 0,2 - 0,6%, vio nim 2050 khoing 0,1 - 1,7%; vio nim 2100 chua dSn 1% d Kon Tum, Dik Lik, len ddn 2,9% d Gia Lai va 3,3% d Dik Nong Muc tang so vdi cudi the ky 20 cua lugng mua miia thu vao nam 2020, phfl biSn trfn dudi 2%: 2,7% d Gia Lai, 2,6% d Kon Tum; 2,1% d Dik Lak, 2,0% d Dik Nong va chi 1,7% d Lim D^ng; vio nim 2050 la 7,1% d Gia Lai; 7,0% d Kon Tum; 5,7% d Dik Lik; 5,4% d Dik Nflng vi chi 4,4% d Lam Dong Nhu vay, miic giam ciia lugng mua miia dflng nhifu hem miia xuan va miic ting lugng mua miia thu nhieu ban miia he VS khflng gian, dang chii y Ii muc giam lugng mua d viing cao Lim D^ng nhieu hem cac nai khac va ngugc Iai, miic ting ciia lugng mua d Lim Dong cung it han cic nai khac (bdng 5) Bdng MLPC t h a y d o i l u ^ n g nura nam (N) mila d o n g (D), m u a x u a n (X), m u a h e (H), m i l a t h u (T) s o VPi tho-i k y 1980 - 9 theo kjch ban phat t h a i t r u n g b i n h (B2) % Tinh N Kon Tum 0.4 -2,7 -2,1 13.6 -10,6 0,9 13,3 Gia Lai 0,9 -2,9 -2,0 15,0 -10,4 2,9 13,6 10,9 DakLak 0,5 -3,0 -1.7 15.1 -6,9 0.2 DikNfing 0,3 -2,6 -2.5 13,3 -12,7 3.3 10,3 Lam Dflng 0,4 -3,8 -1.6 19.7 -9.0 1.3 8.4 4, Xay d^ng kjch ban h^n hin cho Tay Nguyen 4.1 Cdc bu&c th{rc hifn DS xay dung kjch ban ban hin cho Tay Nguyen thyc hifn cic budc sau diy: Budc 1: Lira chgn chi tieu han thi'ch bgp vdi myc dich cu the Ii xay dung kjch bin ban hin Budc 2: Xic djnh cic mdc ting ciia nhift vi mire thay ddi iugng mua tren cic dia difm cua Tay Nguyen theo kjch bin BDKH, NBD vira dugc cap nhat Budc 3: Tmh toin cic chi sd ban cho thdi ky ca bin cua kjch ban BDKH, NBD ndi chung Budc 4: Xac dinh muc thay dfli cua chi sd ban theo cic kich ban tren cic tinh ciia Tay Nguyen so vdi thdi ky ca bin Budc 5: N14n dinh ve tic dgng cua bien dfli hau dfli vdi nguy co ban hin hoang mac hoa d Tay NguySn 4.2 Ket qua xay difng kjch bdn hgn cho Tay Nguyen Kjch bin ban cho Tiy Nguyen dugc xiy dyng trfn CO sd kjch ban BDKH, NBD tuong iing vdi phit thii nhi kinh d mire trung binh Nfli dung kjch ban han la cdp dfl ban d^ kien cho cic nim cua mflt sfl thip ky the ky XXI, bao gom nam 2020 tieu bi^u cho diu thd ky, 2050 tieu bieu cho giQa thS ky vi 2100 tieu bieu cho cufli the ky Dd ciing li cac m6e thdi gian thudng dugc dS cap den nhieu kjch bin ciia IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) ciing nhu cac tfl chiic qudc te khic - Cap 5: So thang ban trung bmh khoing 5,0 5,9 - C ^ 6: Sfl thing han tnmg binh khoang 6,0 - Cap 7: Sfl thing ban trung binh khoing 7,0 - Cap 8: So thing ban trung binh khoang > 8,0 Theo kjch bin h^n da dugc xiy dung cap dg ban cua cic khu vuc vi cac tinh cua Tiy Nguyen vio cic mgc thdi gian tuong lai nhu sau: Nam 2020: Vio nam 2020, so vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999 han cao ban 0,2 - 0,7 cdp (it nhdt 0,33 cdp, nbidu nhdt 0,61 cap), cap han phfl bien li 3-4 d bac Tiy Nguyen, trung Tay Nguyen (4,1 d Kon Tum, 4,0 d Pleiku, 3,9 Budn Ma Thugt) ca bift cd vimg len den cap (Ayunpa: 5,1) Trong dd, han phd bien la cip d nam Tay Nguyen (2,2 d Dik Nflng, 2,3 d Da Lat, ei biet cht cap d nam Lim D^ng (Bio Lgc, 1,3) Nam 2050: Vio nim 2050, ban cao ban so vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999 bidn - cdp (h nhdt la 1,2 cdp, nhieu nhat Ii 1,87 cap), cap ban bien li cap d bic Tiy Nguyfn (4,9 d Kon Tum, 4,7 d Gia Lai), cdp d trung Tiy Nguyfn (5,0 d Bufln Ma Thuflt), ci bift cap d Ayunpa (6,0), Trong do, cap ban phd bien d nam Tiy Nguyen li (Dik Ndng: 3,1; Di Lai: 3,2), ca bift cap d Bio Lgc (2,7) - Cap 0: S6 thing ban trung binh khoang 0,0 - Vao nim 2100, ban cao han so vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999, khoang 2,3 - 3,5 cap (2,33 - 3,49) Cip ban d bic Tiy Nguyen, tnmg Tay Nguyen phfl bien la cdp 6, ci bift d Ayunpa len den cap (7,6) Trong do, cip han bien d nam Tay Nguyen (ke ca nam Lim Dong li 4, Dak Nong la 4,2, Di Lgt: 4,4, Bio Lgc: 4,3) - cdp 1: So thing ban trung binh khoing 1,0 - 4.3 B{r kien tdc dgng cua bien doi hgu den hgn hdn vd hoang mgc hda & Tdy Nguyen - cdp 2: S6 thing ban trung binh khoing 2,0 - Nguy CO gia ting ban ban vi xudt hifn hoang mac hda ting din theo thdi gian tren mflt sfl dja bin cing rgng Idn d Tiy Nguyfn, Dc tifn lgi eho vife thuyet minh kjch ban, miic dfl ban dy kiin duge phin chia thinh cap sau diy: 0.9 2,9 - cdp 3: So thing ban trung binh khoing 3,0 - cdp 4: S6 thing h ^ trung binh khoang 4,0 - Nam 2020: Den nim 2020, dg dii ctia miia han dai them 10 - 22 d hau khip noi, ding ke nhat li viing nam Lam Dflng Tuy nhiSn, muc han d Bio Lgc vin rit thap m^c dia mite dfl ban gia tang nhieu han so vdi eic vimg khac O Ayunpa, ban vao thap ky niy da len den cap 5, xap xi nhiSu noi d Nam Trung BO vi Bic Trung Bg Nam 2050: Den nam 2050, dg dii miia ban dai them 35 60 ngiy so vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999, mire tang nhifu nhit Ii d viing xua ban rat it nhu nam Lim Dflng Vdi mite tang dfl dai ban nhu tren, miia ban d nhieu noi, nhat la d trung Tay Nguyen len den 5-6 thing DT nhifn, nai han nang nhat van d viing Ayunpa vi d diy, thuc su xuat hifn nguy co hoang mac hda miia ban da chiem nua thdi gian nam Nam 2100: Vio cuoi the ky XXI, miia ban dii bon thdi ky 1980 - 1999 tir 2,3 dfn 3,5 thing khoang 70 - 105 Miia ban dai them nhieu nhit van d nam Tay Nguyen va dii them it nhit d bac Tiy Nguyen Vdi mire tang nhu tren, miia han d bac Tay Nguyfn phfl bifn la cap 6, cd noi cap 7, ning ban mire dfl han hifn t^ii ciia bit ky noi nao d nude ta Cung cd the ude doin, vio thdi diem niy, ban d bdc Tay NguySn va tnmg Tiy Nguyen ciing vdi cyc nam Trung Bfl, ning nS nhit so vdi cac vimg hau ciia Vift Nam; cie vimg niy trd dia bin trgng diem ve nguy ca hoang mac hda Trong dd, d nam Tiy Nguyen Ii tang nhieu song van d cap 4, tucmg ducmg bic Tay Nguyen vi Trung Tay NguySn thdi diSm hifn tai Cd didu Ii, Nam Tay Nguyen tir tinh trang biu nhu rat hiem ed ban hin hifn trd dja bin cd ban hin dang ke Dd xudt giai phap ung Df phdng chdng giim thieu ban han, hoang mac hda cin cd cac giai phap sau: - Cin xiy dyng co cau cay trflng phii hgp, dac bift dfli vdi nhiing viing trflng cay cdng nghifp liu nim nhu ci phe, tieu, ea cao, , cd difn tich Idn cdn chii y tr6ng ciy cd bdng mat dS giam hoc thoit bai nudc, chin gid nhim giii dg dm cho dit lim giim lugng nudc tudi - Phan loai difn tich va cac loai ciy trflng, dS cd thii ty uu tiSn cap nudc tudi (ciy giong, liia dang trfl bflng, giiiflndjnh difn tich ciy cong nghifp cd gii tri) 316 - Phit trien cac giong cay chju han vdi cac dieu kien khic nghift - Dua cflng nghf tudi bien dai dS tiet Idem nudc, nit ngin thdi gian cic dgt tudi (tudi luan phiSn, tudi im va phii gflc cay giii im) - cdn difu tiSt tang Iugng xi nudc qua phit difn, bfl sung ddng chiy ve du cho cac cflng trinh thuy lgi cd dii ngufln nudc tudi vao vy he thu, vymiia - Kien cd cung hda he thflng kenh muong giam tdn that mat nudc - Nao vet kenh rach, ao ho Huy dflng vi lip dat them miy bam di chien, khoi sau gieng dao, khoan them giSng nudc tudi - Tfl chiic quan ly chat che ngudn nudc, lay nuoc tru vio cic kenh rach van hinh hgp Iy cic cdng trinh - Quan Iy chit che vifc khai thic nudc ngim d eic dia phuong - Cin cd dy bio, thflng bao kjp thdi diln bifn thdi tiet nguon nudc cbo cac nganh va tren phuong tifn thflng tin d^i chung df nhin din chii dflng co giii phip dfli phd vdi han han vi chuyen dich thdi vu gieo trflng - cin ting cudng thong tin, tuySn truySn den cic dja phuong, nhin din tich cue tham gia cac cflng vifc hifu qui, thiSt thyc de chflng ban, lim cho cic cdp, cic nganh va mgi ngudi din hiSu rfl vifc phdng chdng ban Ket luan Tay NguySn cd lugng nudc phong phii nhung vio thdi ky miia khfl ban ban vin xiy lien tidp Han bin thudng giy inh hudng tren difn rflng Tuy it li nguyen nhin tryc tiSp giy tdn thdt vi ngudi, nhung thift hai ve kinh te-xa hgi vi moi trudng han han giy la rit Idn Sy ting lugng mua miia mua vi giim lugng mua miia khfl se tang them tinh cyc doan cho \a lyt va ban hin d Tay NguySn Theo thang dfl tii cdp dfl ddn cdp hifn tai ban phd bidn cdp 3, cdp d bic Tay Nguyen, trung Tiy NguySn, cdp d nam Tiy Nguyen, ci bift cd nai ISn dSn cdp nhu Ayimpa nhung ngugc 1^, d Bao Lflc chi cap Miia ban hifn biSn tii thing XII den thing III, noi mua h^n dii han nhu d Ayui^a til thing XII den thing IV d Bio Lgc, vio bat cir thing nao ban cung khdng ding kd, tham chi cd the coi li khdng cd miia han Theo kjch bin trung bmh, so vdi thdi ly 1980 1999 miic tang cdp dg ban khoing 0,3 - 0,7 cip vio nam 2020; 1,2 - 1,9 edp vio nim 2050 vi 2,3 - 3,5 cap vao nim 2100 Ding luu y Ii, mite tang cdp dfl h^n nhieu nhat d vimg rat it ban hifn tai - Bao Lgc Vdi mire tang nhu tren, cdp dfl han vio nim 2020 phfl bien la 3- d bic Tiy Nguyen, trung Tiy Nguyen, cip d nam Tiy Nguyen Vao nim 2050 phd biSn cip d bic Tiy NguySn, cdp d trung Tay Nguyen (ca bift cip d Ayunpa) cdp a nam Tiy Nguyfn, vio nim 2100, phfl bien cdp d bac Tiy Nguyen, trung Tay Nguyen; ei bift cap d Ayunpa; cip d nam Tay NguySn, kS ci trung tam mua Bio Lflc Sy gia ting cap dfl ban linh thd Tay Nguyen chic chin md rgng thdi gian cua miia han, dfl dat miia ban phd bien keo dai them 10-22 vio nim 2020, 35 -60 vao nam 2050, 70 - 105 ngiy vio nSm 2100 so vdi thdi kJ-1980 - 1999 khdng thua kem cic vimg ban ban dien hinh nhu cue nam Trung Bfl TAI UEU DAN [1] Nguyin Lap Ddn, 2013: Ca sir khoa hgc cho giii phip giii quyet eac miu thuan lgi ich khai thic su dung tai nguyen nudc phuc vu phit triSn kinh td - xa hfli Ianh thfl Tiy Nguyen, Tap chi Khoa hgc Cdng nghe Vift Nam, sfl nam 2013,651tr [2] Bfl Nflng nghiep va Phit tridn Nflng thdn, 2010: Ra soit quy hoach thiiy lgi vimg Tiy Nguyen 2009 [3] Bfl Nflng nghifp vi Phat trien Ndng thfln, 2013: Bao cio tinh binh ban ban, xim nhap man, vi cflng tac chi dao phong chflng khic phyc hau qui tai cic tinh Mien Tmng va Tiy Nguyen [4] Uy ban nhan dan tinh Gia Lai, Lien Sd (Sd Nong nghifp vi Phat triSn Nflng thdn, Tii Chinh), 2013: Bao cao tinh hinh khfl han vu Ddng Xuan 2012-2013 Vdi sy gia ting ban ban nhu treo s6 khflng cdn noi [5] Uy ban nhin din tinh Dik Lak, Sd Nflng nio h?n rat it nhu Bio Lgc bifn va nguy ca han nghifp va Phat trifn Nflng thdn, 2013: Tinh hinh hin hoang mac hda d Tay Nguyen, nhat la d bic Tay ban hin vy Dflng xuan 2012-2013 trfn dja ban tinh NguySn, hiong Tiy Nguyen se rat nghiem trgng Dak Lik Drought, desertification in Tay Nguyen territory associated with climate change scenarios In recent years, under the impact of climate change, increasing deforestation and leveling soil, the natural flows regulating ability of nver basins in Tay Nguyen has been declining strongly Tay Nguyen has four major river systems: the upstream of Se San nver, the upstream of Srepok nver, the upstream of Ba river and the upstream of Dong Nai river Tay Nguyen also has an abundant water resource, however, in dry season drought occurs consecutively having widespread influences The drought is rarely the direct cause of human loss but social - economic and environmental damage caused by drought is significantly, especially it leads to desertification In this study, the authors will analyze and assess the current status of drought and desertification in Tay Nguyen associated with climate change scenarios in the " century, proposing solutions to minimize and to respond to drought and desertification in Tay Nguyen, Just in time (1990 - 2000} in Tay Nguyen territory, drought o c c u r e d in 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 droughtprone rice area from 2.000 to 130.0DOha each crop In 1998, drought-prone coffee area was 74.400ha, 770,000 people are the lack of water in this drought Drought had a great influence on tha production winter-spring at the end of the 2012-2013, eariy summer-autumn in 2013 and water of the people in the provinces of Dak Lak, Dak Nong, Gia Lai, Kon Tum Results of expected impacts of climate change to drought and desertification showed appearance of droughts and deseriification gradually increase over time in 2020, 2050, 2100 on areas in Tay Nguyen Thus, proposing solutions to minimize drought and desertification in Tay Nguyen temtory including: construction of appropnate plant structure modem irrigation technologies, water saving, hardened concrete canal systems, increased regulation of water through generating additional downstream flow of the inigation water source lo meet the summer collection season Organization of closely manage water resources and enhancing information, dissemination to local urKferstand Ihe drought response 317 ... bmh khoing 5,0 5,9 - C ^ 6: Sfl thing han tnmg binh khoang 6,0 - Cap 7: Sfl thing ban trung binh khoing 7,0 - Cap 8: So thing ban trung binh khoang > 8,0 Theo kjch bin h^n da dugc xiy dung cap... ca bift cap d Bio Lgc (2,7) - Cap 0: S6 thing ban trung binh khoang 0,0 - Vao nim 2100, ban cao han so vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999, khoang 2,3 - 3,5 cap (2,33 - 3,49) Cip ban d bic Tiy Nguyen, tnmg... tdc dgng cua bien doi hgu den hgn hdn vd hoang mgc hda & Tdy Nguyen - cdp 2: S6 thing ban trung binh khoing 2,0 - Nguy CO gia ting ban ban vi xudt hifn hoang mac hda ting din theo thdi gian tren