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Bài viết trình bày biến đổi khí hậu và nỗ lực ứng phó toàn cầu, những vấn đề đặt ra đối với Việt Nam, đề xuất một số giải pháp nhằm cải thiện tác động của biến đổi khí hậu.
BIEN DOI KHI HAU TOAN CAU VA VAN DE DAT RA DOI V d l VIET NAM TS Tl^N H6NG HA Oy v!§n Ban Chdp hinh Trung aang BSng Bi tradng Bi Tii nguyin vS Mdi trudng Biin dil hiu li vin di toin ciu, li thich thiec nghiim tr^ng nhit dil vdi nhin io^i Vii kfXXI Vlit Nam ii mit nhimg quic gia bi inh huong n^ng ni nhit fi> bJ4n dii khf h$u, ci vi chfnh tri, Mnh ti - xa hii va quic phing - an ninh Vi thi, chu ding dng phi v&i biin dii khf h$u a nu&c ta li vin di quan frpng, cap thiit B: IEN doi h|u vi no ^ dng phd toin :^u Trong qui trinh phit trifin, biln ddi hgu (do phat thii nhi kinh giy ra) li mft ttong nhiing van de an ninh phi truyfin thong, de dpa tdi su tdn vong eua toan nhan logi Theo Td chdc Khi tupng thl gidi, ndng dp nha kinh ttong quyen nam 2015 da vupt qua nguong 400/10^ thl tich; dd, gidi hgn an toin ciia ehi sd la 350/10^ thfi tieh Cdn theo bio cio ciia Nhdm Cdng tic vfi Ca sd khoa hpe thude Ban lifin chinh phu ve bifin ddi hiu (cfing bd 27-9-2013) thi ndng dg cae nhi kinh ttong quyfin da khdng ngiing gia tang; ttong dd, ndng dg CO2 (giai dogn 2005 - 2011) da tang 40% so vdi nam 1750 Nhift dd bl mgt trai dit tang nhanh, ttong giai doan 1901-2012 da tang O.gg'^C; rieng giai dogn 1951 2012 tang khoing 0,72°C Dilu dd dupe thl hifin d so ngay, dem ianh/nam giam, sd ngiy, dem v i dpt ning ndng/nam tang len ro rft Muc nude biln trung binh eua thl gidi cung cd xu thl tang ttong sudt thl ky XX, vdi mde ting binh quin 1,7 mm/nam (giai doan 1900 - 1992) v i 3,2 mm/nam (giai dogn 1993 2010) Vfi lugng mua, cae viing ed sd dpt mua ldn tang nhieu ban sd vung cd sd dpt mua ldn giim Cic bao mgnh xuit hifn mpt nhifiu, nhit la nhiing sieu bao, vdi sue gid chua timg cd ttong Hch sd nhan loai Dfi cdu trii dit - ngdi nhi chung cua cac the hf hdm vi mai sau khdi thim hpa biln ddi hau, ngiy 12-12-2015, Thda thugn ve hau da dupe 196 ben thdng qua tgi Hpi nghi lih thu 21 cic ben tham gia Cdng udc khung eua Lien hgp qude vl biln ddi hiu (COP 21) tai Pa-ri (Phip) Day ia Thda thugn danh dau budc dot pha quan ttpng ttong no lyc eua Lien hpp qudc sau hon thap ky, nhim thuylt phyc chinh phu eae nudc hgp tic dfi giim lupng thii gay d nhifim, hgn chl gia tang nhifit dp ciia ttii dat Td day, se md mpt ky nguyen phit trien mdi ttfin toin eau ky nguyen phit trien phat thii cic-bon thap, vdi cic md hinh sin xuit, tieu dung than thifn vdi mdi trudng; han chl, tiln tdi xda bd sd dung nhifin Hfu hda thach, thuc day phit trifin nang lupng sgch, ning lupng tai tao Qui trinh iy cd sy tham gia tieh cue ciia cae thinh phin ttong xa hpi, tu eac nhi hogch dinh chinh sach, nha khoa hpc, cdng nghf, giio due, boat dpng TAP CHl QUdC PHdNG TOAN DAN S 8/2016 f ^ vin hoi, doanh nghifp, ci xa hdi va cgng dong, v.v Nhimg vin dl d$t dli vdi Vift Nam Vift Nam la mpt ttong nhiing quoc gia dang phat trien v i la nudc dl bi tdn thuang dgc bift tie ddng cda biln ddi hau gay Theo kich bin bifin ddi hgu eho Vift Nam phifin bin 2016' cho tiiiy, nhift dp ttfin cic vung, mien eua nudc ta diu cd xu thl tang so vdi thdi ky eo sd (1986 - 2005), vdi mde ting ldn nhit d khu vyc phia Bac Nfiu theo kieh ban trung binh (RCP4.5), nhifit dp trung binh/nam ttfin toin qudc giai dogn 2016 2035 cd mde tang phd bifin tu O.d^C - 0,8°C Cdn theo kich bin cao (RCP8.5), nhift dp tiung binh/nam d nudc ta vao dau thl ky XXI ed mde tang phd bien tu 0,8''C - IjI^C Ngoai ra, nhift dd thip nhit trung binh va eao nhit tiung binh d ca hai kjeh ban trfin diu cd xu the tang len kich ban cao, cic sl lifu cda cac thdi diem hrang dng lin lugt li 25 em v i 73 em Dy bao, nlu myc nudc bifin dang I m v i khdng cd cie giii phip dng phd, khoing 16,8% difn tich ddng bing sdng Hong, 1,5% difn tich eae tinh ven bifin mien Trung (td Thanh Hda din Binh Thugn), 17,8% difn tich ttianh Hd Chi Minh, 38,9% difn tieh ding bing sdng Ciru Long cd nguy ca ngip chim nudc Trudc tmh hinh dd, nhimg nim qua Dang v i Nhi nude ta ludn coi bifin doi hau la vin dfi song cdn dli vdi quoc gia, dan tdc; tit dd, tgp trung lanh dao, chi dgo eae cap, nganh, dia phuang, lye lugng tich eye, chu dgng ung phd tten mat ttgn niy, dgt nhilu ket qui quan ttpng Ve nhgn thirc, Vift Nam da sdm tham gia Cdng udc khung cua Lifin hpp qude vfi bifin ddi hgu (Cdng udc hgu), NgU dinh thu Kyoto Dae bift, ngiy 22-4-2016, Vifit Nam da eung 175 qude gia ttfin thfi gidi ky Thda thu^n Pa-ri tgi Niu-Y-ode (My) Ciing vdi dd, nhieu hogt ddng tuyfin truyen, phi bifin, giio dye nang eao nhin thde ve biln dli hgu dupc thyc hifin Qua dd, nhan thde cua eie eap, nginh, dia phuang vi toin din vfi bien ddi hgu cdng nguy co tic dpng eda no ddi vdi cic lmh vye ddi sing xa hpi tdng budc dugc nang cao Ve lugng mua, du bao se tilp tye tang tten pham vi toan quoc Theo Idch bin trung binh, lugng mua trung binh/nam vao dau thl ky ed xu thfi tang d hau hit ci nudc, phd biln tu 5% - 10%; vao giua thl ky cd muc tang tu 5% - 15%; do, mpt sd tinh ven bien dong bing Bic Bp, Bic Trung Bf, Trung Trung Bf cd thl tang tten 20% Theo idch ban cao, lupng mua trung binh/nam cd xu thl tang tuang ty nhu kich ban trung binh Dang chu y li vao cudi the ky, mde tang nhieu nhit cd thl Ifin tdi ttfin 20% va dupc phin bd d Bie Bp, Trung Trung Bp, mdt phin Nam Bp va Tiy Nguyfin Trong do, lupng mua ngiy ldn nhit va ngiy ldn nhit ttung binh ed xu thl ting tu 40% - 70% (phia Tiy Tay Bic, Ddng Bic, dong bang Bic Bf, Bic Trung Bd, Thda Thifin - Hufi, vung Nam Tay Nguyen vi Ddng Nam Bp) Cie khu vye khic cd mde tang phd biln tdl0%-30% Vi the che, chinh sdch, mpt sd vin bin quy phgm phip lugt lifin quan dfin dng phd vdi bien ddi hiu da dupc ban hinh, nhu: Luit Dfi dieu; Lu^t Sd dyng tilt kifm v i hifu qui nang lupng; Phap Ifnh phdng ching lyt, bao; Chien lupe quic gia phdng, ehong vi giam nh? thifin tai, Luat Bio vf mdi tiudng (nam 2014), Chiln lupc qudc gia vfi bifin doi hiu, Chifin luge tang ttudng xanh, v.v Chinh phd da thinh lip Uy ban qudc gia vfi bien doi hiu, hinh thinh dan vj diu mli d Ve myc nudc biln ding ttung binh d Vift Nam cd nang eao hon muc trung binh toin eiu Theo kieh ban trung binh, dfin nam 2050 li 22 em; nam 2100 li 53 cm Theo -_ Kich b&n niy c6 sii dung so li§u ciia 150 trpm quan trie tren dat l i ^ vk Mi SAo; s6 l i ^ myc nuoc b i ^ cua 17 trjim hSi van v4 ciia ky thuat d^c tir v§ tinh; sii dyng kit qua cfip nh^t cdc mo hlnh h^u t o ^ ciiL TAP CHl QU6C PHdNG TOAN DAN S6 8/201S Trung uong de thyc hifn nhifm vy quin l;y nhi nudc ve lmh vyc niy Vi4c trien khai thifc hi?n cdc hogt dgng thich img vd gidm nh? phdt thdi nhd kinb cd nhieu chuyfin bien tieh eye Theo dd, kieh ban bien doi hgu, nudc biln ding da duge xay dyng, thudng xuyfin cip nhit v i cdng bo Chuong tiinh myc tifiu qudc gia ve biln doi hgu dugc triln khai thyc hifn va da dgt duge ket qui bude dau Chuang ttinh hd ttg dng phd vdi biln ddi hiu (SP-RCC) da xay dung ttfin 300 npi dung chinh sich, huy dpng eho ngin sich nhi nude gan I tJ USD Vifc nghifin cdu, dinh gia tic dpng cua biln ddi hgu dfin mdt sd lmh vue, lim ca sd dl xiy dyng ke hogch hanh ddng dng phd thudng xuyen dupc chu trpng Nang lyc dy bio, cinh bio, td chdc thuc hifn ciing difiu kifn, phuong tifn phdng, ehdng thien tai d eae khu dan cu, nhit la tgi cae viing cd nguy ea eao vl thien tai dupc nang Ien mpt budc mdi Cae chuang trinh, dy in ve tiet kifim nang lupng, sd dyng nang lugng mdi, tai tao (nang lugng gid, mgt ttdi, nhifin lifu sinh hpc) cdng cic hoat dpng giim nhp phit thii nhi kinh dupe trien khai tieh eye Vifc thuc hien Chuong trinh giim mit v i suy thoii rung, nhim gift nang hap thy nha kinh cua he sinh thai rimg budc diu phat huy hifiu qui Ngoii ra, Viet Nam da sdm xay dyng bio cio Ddng gdp dy kiln (do qudc gia ty quyet djnh) vi trinh Ban Thu ky Cdng udc h|u vio thing 92015 Theo dd, chdng ta cam kit giim 8% so vdi kich bin phit trien thdng thudng (BAU) vao nam 2030 vi cd thl tang len 25% nlu cd hd ttp tieh eye tii cfng ddng qudc tfi Ciing vdi kfit qui dgt dupe, thdi gian tdi, viee thue thi Thda thuin Pa-ri vda md thdi ca cho nudc ta ttong hgp tic dng phd vdi bien ddi hgu, nhit li tao dpng lyc de chung ta thay dli md hinh ting trudng v i eo hdi ttanh thu cae ngudn lye (ci ngi lyc vi ngogi lyc) dfi hudng tdi mdt nen kinh te cic-bon thip; ddng thdi, dgt nhung khd khan, thach thde gay git Trong tuang lai gin, biln ddi hau se tilp tyc tie ddng, gay h|u qui n§ng nl ddi vdi ddi song ngudi din vi ci nen kinh te, nhat la d eie nginh, ITnh vyc nhay cim, nhu: ndng nghifp, lam nghifp, thuy sin va chin nudi Dieu dd ddi hdi chiing ta, mpt mgt can huy ddng nhieu nguon lyc han eho thich dng vi khie phyc hiu qui thifin tai gay ra; mgt khic, vSn phii no lye dam bio cic myc tifiu tang trudng kinh tfi, an sinh xa hpi, xda ddi giim ngheo Trong dd, vifc chi phi diu tu cho cai tiln, ddi mdi cdng nghf, phit tiien nang lupng tii tgo dfi thay thl cho cae nhifin lifu hda thgeh (theo cam kit) khdng he nhd, tgo ip lyc ldn doi vdi tang trudng nen kinh te qudc din Ngoai ra, thye hifn nghia vy cda mpt bfin tham gia Thda thugn, Vift Nam phii thay doi cich thuc tiln hanh kiem ke nhi kinh ciing nhu chl dp bio eao theo phuong thde: chuyfin td muc tifiu mang tinh tuong doi sang cic tieu chi cd tinh dinh lupng ro ring, vdi cac tieu ehuan eao han Dieu dd ciing se keo theo nhu eau ldn ve ngudn lye Diy Ii nhiing thich thde rit ldn ddi vdi nudc ta Mft sl giai phip chinh Trong thdi gian tdi, Thda thuan Pa-ri se tgo budc ngoat ldn vl ung phd vdi bien ddi hau tten phgm vi toin cau ciing nhu d cap quoc gia Dfi chung ta cd the tin dyng eo hpi, chuyln hda thach thde, vda dim bio cac myc tifiu tang trudng, vda tdng budc phit trifin kinh te gin vdi dam bio quoc phdng, an ninh theo hudng ben viing, cin trifin khai cac giii phip ddng bp; ttong dd, tip tnmg vio mpt sd n^i dung CO bin sau: Mgt id, tten co sd chi thu|n lgi, khd khan (khi thyc hifin Thda thuan Pa-ri) ddi vdi Vift Nam ttong giai dogn phit trifin mdi, chdng ta cin chu ddng xay dyng cac ke hogch, phuong an phdng, chdng vi thich dng Trong dd, vife chuyfin ddi md hinh ting tnrdng cic-bon thap, chdng chiu eao la mdt ttong nhung giii phip tit yfiu de phat trien dat nudc nhanh hon, tdt hon, ttinh duge bay thu nhgp trung binh tii nguyen thien nhifin, nhat la than di, dau md cdn TAP CHl QU6C PHdNG TOAN DAN S6 8/2016 11 Igi khdng nhifiu v i khdng khuyln khich su dyng Ding thdi, can nhin mgnh yfiu eau thay dfii hanh vi vi ldi song cda toin xa hpi nham hudng tdi hlnh thinh cae md hinh sin xuat va thdi quentifiudiing bfin vftng, sd dyng tifit kifm v i hifu qua tii nguyfin; til dd, tgo cho mdi tiiinh vien ttong xa hpi y thde chu ddng phdng, tranh thifin tai, ttiich dng vdi biln doi hgu, gdp phan giim din ttiift hgi vfi ngudi vi tii sin Hai Id, chu dgng soat cae ca chl, chinh sich ling vdi cic ngi dung cua Thda thugn; trfin CO sd do, tiln hinh sda ddi, bd sung vi ban hanh nhung co chl, chinh sich ve dng phd vdi bifin ddi hau, bio dim phu hpp vdi nhiing quy dinh mdi se hinh tten quy md toin ciu va khu vyc ttong tuong lai Trudc mat, can to chdc nghifin euu ky nhung npi dung cua Thda thugn, xay dung kl hoach trifin khai thye hifn phu hpp theo quan diem, myc tieu va eie nhifim vy, giai phip da nfiu ttong Nghi quylt Trung uong (khda XI) vl ehu dfng dng phd vdi biln ddi hgu, ting eudng quin ly tii nguyfin va bio vfi mdi trudng Ddng thdi, ldng ghfip npi dung dd vio qui trinh xay dung, thyc hien eae chiln lupc, quy hoach, ke hogch, ehuong trinh phat trifin Vinh tfi - xa hpi cua cic bd, nganh vi dia phuang td giai doan 2016 - 2020 dfi chuin bi cic difiu kifin cho giai dogn tiep theo Ve liu dai, can chu ddng lugt hda nhiing quy dinh mang tinh ring bupc cua Thda thuan vio chinh sach, phap luat cda Vift Nam, tiln tdi xay dung Lugt Bifin ddi hau quic gia Cung vdi do, cin sdm ban hinh chinh sich khuyln khich, uu dai, ho ttg doanh nghifp ttong thyc hifn myc tieu giim nh? phit thii nhi kinh theo Ig trinh phu hgp, nham tien tdi xda bd cac chinh sach hd ttp gia doi vdi nhien lieu hda thgeh, kl td sau nam 2020; thuc hifn bu gia doi vdi cac dy in phit trien nang lupng mdi, nang lugng tii tao, nang lupng sgch, tai chl va sin xuit difn td chit thii Ba Id, ting eudng vifc hiin thd, thyc thi cie quy dinh quoc tl va diy manh tiiln khai thyc hien chu ttuong cua Ding, ehinh saeh, phip lugt cua Nha nudc vl dng phd vdi biln ddi hgu Tich eye nghifin edu, xay dyng hf thong cic chi tieu v i cdng cy phyc vy vifc dinh gia, giim sit; xay dyng va van hinh hf ttidng bio eao thing nhat vl eac hogt dpng dng phd vdi biln doi hgu eung nhu vifc huy ddng, sd dung nguon ho ttg td Trung uong v i dia phuong Tang eudng vai ttd giam sit cua cic td chuc chinh tri - xa hgi, ngudi dan nhim dim bio tinh minh bach ttong trien khai thye hifn Bon Id, diy mgnh phit trien nguon nhan lye; hogt dpng nghifin cuu khoa hpc; phit ttien edng nghe phu hpp dfi chuyfin doi md hinh tang trudng, san xuat, tifiu dung theo hudng phit thii cic-bon thip v i cich thuc thich dng chu ddng, hifu qui vdi bifin ddi hiu Coi ttpng phit trien mpt so chuyfin nginh khoa hpe v i cong nghf mui nhgn, nhu: vat lifu thdng minh, chuyln hda nang lugng, nang lupng tii tgo Ndm Id, tiep tuc phit huy npi lyc, ttanh thu ho ttg qudc te dfi thuc hien eie cam kfit cua Viet Nam Trong do, cin khuyln khieh, uu dai, hd ttg doanh nghifp, cic td ehde, ci nhin ting eudng dau tu vio hogt dgng giim nhp phat thai nhi kinh, chuyln ddi md hinh tang trudng v i chu dpng thich dng vdi biln ddi h|u Sdm hoan thinh vifc nghifin edu, thd nghifm cdng tic phit trifin thi trudng trao ddi tin chi cic-bon nudc v i tham gia thi ttudng cicbon toan eiu dfi da dang hda ngudn lyc diu tu cho ung phd vdi biln ddi hiu ttong nude v i ddng gdp h; nguySn vfi tai chinh vdi cfng ddng qudc te Bien ddi hgu li vin de toin eau vi da, dang la thich tiidc gay git dli vdi Vift Nam Vi thl, thye hifn tdt cie giai phap tiren, se tgo ca sd, tifin de vung chic de chung ta tin tudng vifc tan dyng cdng cic ca hdi va hda giii hifu qui nhiing thieh thde Thda thugn Pa-ri mang lai, gdp phin phat triln dit nudc nhanh, ben viing • TAP CHl QU6C PHdNG TOAN DAN S6 8/2016 ... d$t dli vdi Vift Nam Vift Nam la mpt ttong nhiing quoc gia dang phat trien v i la nudc dl bi tdn thuang dgc bift tie ddng cda biln ddi hau gay Theo kich bin bifin ddi hgu eho Vift Nam phifin bin... diu mli d Ve myc nudc biln ding ttung binh d Vift Nam cd nang eao hon muc trung binh toin eiu Theo kieh ban trung binh, dfin nam 2050 li 22 em; nam 2100 li 53 cm Theo -_ Kich b&n niy c6 sii dung... 0,8''C - IjI^C Ngoai ra, nhift dd thip nhit trung binh va eao nhit tiung binh d ca hai kjeh ban trfin diu cd xu the tang len kich ban cao, cic sl lifu cda cac thdi diem hrang dng lin lugt li