Crisis, catastrophe, and disaster in organizations, 1st ed , dennis w tafoya, 2020 2717

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Dennis W Tafoya Crisis, Catastrophe, and Disaster in Organizations Managing Threats to Operations, Architecture, Brand, and Stakeholders Crisis, Catastrophe, and Disaster in Organizations Dennis W. Tafoya Crisis, Catastrophe, and Disaster in Organizations Managing Threats to Operations, Architecture, Brand, and Stakeholders Dennis W. Tafoya Compcite Inc Devon, PA, USA ISBN 978-3-030-37073-2    ISBN 978-3-030-37074-9 (eBook) © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 This work is subject to copyright All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Preface Turmoil and trauma are two products of everyday phenomena: a crisis, catastrophe, or disaster These phenomena have immediate and long-­lasting effects on those affected by them This book explores the innermost nature of these phenomena It is written for those in a variety of professions who work, study, and investigate effects of these phenomena The material presented applies to the impact of these phenomena on societies in general, but the particular focus is on their effects on three areas: organizations, their stakeholders, and their social networks Material in the book covers four areas for the researcher, investigator, or problem solvers engaged in studying, reporting on, or containing these phenomena A first area covered examines the traumatic effects associated with these phenomena Three types of trauma merit particular attention because of their diverse and widespread effects Operational trauma impacts the capacity of individuals and organizations to perform or function, architectural trauma shocks the organization’s structural framework and makeup, everything associated with the organization’s physical structure used to move information, communication, people, goods, and materials Finally, brand trauma touches the image, credibility, and influential capacity of the organization’s core features: its vision, mission, and leadership and those stakeholders that are part of the organization’s social network Combined, these three traumas can encumber every facet of an organization from its vision and mission through its products and services v vi Preface To approach the turmoil and trauma produced by the crisis, catastrophe, and disaster, their nature, and processes, tools and theories are presented to model their dynamic states A first model uses wave theory to present the relationship among a crisis, catastrophe, and disaster as a stream that moves through an organization and its social network These streams, triggered by a poorly managed event, begin with a crisis-stream If the crisis is not contained, it can morph into a very robust phenom-­stream comprising the crisis, a catastrophe, and disaster Each of the last, morphing from the phenomenon preceding it Material related to these discussions facilitates the work of researchers, investigators perhaps working with the media or a particular agency, or a problem solver assigned to contain these phenomena The tools and related materials presented in the book help us understand what these phenomena are doing to an organization, its stakeholders, and social network It is a missing element in other books and, unfortunately, only a beginning of what I believe will be ongoing research Among the questions asked throughout the book are why these phenomena emerge in the first place and what is necessary to contain them? Can’t organizations develop some type of immune system to resist or prevent the negative effects associated with these phenomena? (An early answer, “No.”) The tools and theories used illustrate ways to examine the makeup of these three phenomena, the role of humans in containing them, and their effects on organizations, stakeholders, and social networks A focal point of one particular feature that can trigger an event-stream, the failure of an organization’s leadership to contain phenomena as they emerge, is the subject of numerous examples drawn from the recent news A crisis’ inception begins with the emergence of an event The event may be routine, like an automobile accident, or extreme like a mass shooting, but if effectively contained and their effects are managed, then no significant crisis should emerge Poorly contained events morph into a crisis, a changed state, which is also in need of containment Several events-to-­ crisis instances illustrate this conclusion The crash of two Boeing 737 Max jets, the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and activities associated with the behavior of members of different organizations illustrate the ways these phenomena and phenom-streams as poorly managed events can trigger and enable the morphing of these phenomena from one state to another  Preface  vii Finally, a fourth major theme covered in the book are the long-lasting, and for some, never-ending consequences of these phenomena This is an interesting discussion for several reasons First, the subject is often overlooked in most material that looks at crisis management These books and studies often end their discussions when the fire is extinguished, the accident field is clear, or the accused rapist is convicted Unfortunately, when viewed as a process, these phenomena have never-ending effects for some stakeholders For some, these crises never end! Physical, emotional, cognitive, and psychological trauma affects some stakeholders throughout their lives Moreover, and as importantly, whether one is affected by these phenomena is not dependent on one’s proximity to the event Many of us remain moved by the ways Nazis treated human beings in their death camps long before we were even born For others it is not necessary to witness the shooting of innocent children to feel for the pain their families experience or to react with disgust at the politician or executive who used their positions to sexually leverage the careers and lives of others Effects of these events not end with a simple declaration that the trial is over and the sentence passed These effects are part of the stream that began with an event and then morphed into a phenom-stream; these effects are part of the full picture examined in this book because they are a part of life Several people have served as a resource for me when preparing this book Their help is truly appreciated For example, Kathryn Smith is an example of the type of professional who in addition to being a fine practitioner maximizes her contributions in her work by looking for ways to translate theory into practice Kathryn has been a key element in my research on ways to define and explore possible use of the theory of immunology into studies of organizations facing traumatic events Her knowledge of the area proved immediately valuable I found our discussions related to immunology and its role in human systems to be of especially great help when trying to understand why people and organizations cannot avoid the effects associated with a crisis, catastrophe, or disaster In the end, I treated the topic by illustrating how while those in organizations may want to believe they and their systems have or can have some measure of immunity as they face a crisis, they cannot Human organizations can aspire to have immune systems like that of the human body, but it is an unfulfilled aspiration viii Preface Kathryn’s clear thinking combined with a willingness to expand her research efforts and to capably discuss and explain the nature and role of the immune system proved important to me Our discussions became the highlight of any time in which we were able to meet and discuss this subject She is a fine, intelligent, and thoughtful professional and person Professor Thomas Bell (Professor Emeritus, Geography, the University of Tennessee) and I have talked at length regarding subject matter in this book I have appreciated both his comments and thoughts and his willingness to review technical material related to the subject matter He has always proved to be a thoughtful, intelligent, and well-informed resource But perhaps what is best about the levels and types of contributions he is willing to make is that he is not one to stop with the perfunctory or “sufficient” assessment when asked about a particular matter or to review specific material Tom can be counted on to offer the fullest level of participation when he agrees to offer his help or assistance He explains the rationale for his thoughts or opinions, the nature behind decisions, and, importantly, recommendations that may make a piece better than when he received it I personally value his objectivity and unbiased nature, the ethics which he brings to a project, and, overall, the capacity to call him a friend and colleague Few people are closer to crises, catastrophes, and disasters than those who work in community support services People in these organizations are trained and prepared to respond to emergency events, but what separates best performers in these areas for me are those who lead the way in envisioning new and different ways to improve what they These individuals are capable of doing what is expected, but their greatest contributions often come from their efforts to think and act in proactive, progressive ways Such is the case for those people in the Public Works Department in Tredyffrin, Pennsylvania, that I have grown to know and respect Forward-thinking, progressive organizations not wait for problems to arise; they take action! The Public Works Department in Tredyffrin, Pennsylvania, illustrates this orientation to proactive performance I thoroughly enjoy any time I visit their organization or meet with their personnel These are committed professionals My contact and conversations  Preface  ix with Michelle Donia are an example Michelle would always listen to my requests and would immediately outline a plan or process to meet my needs There is a rating scale used in this book to illustrate different levels of performance to look for in a crisis, and Michelle is an excellent example of a person who consistently ranks in the “Exceeds Expectations” category I truly appreciate all of the help she provided me during my research efforts Finally, although it is often an expected thing to when finishing a book for me, recognizing the work of my Editor Marcus Ballenger and his assistant editor Sam Stocker is a real exception These two are great to work with on a project such as this I firmly believe Marcus’ vision for what the public needs is a real resource for a writer He provides guidance and perspective in an unobtrusive, professional way I have always enjoyed working with him! Sam Stocker is new to our team and a real asset Sam was always quick to respond to requests for information, to offer his own opinions (which I truly came to value), and to search out answers for my most challenging questions/requests I believe he is carving out an impressive future for himself in the publishing industry I am glad to have worked with him Devon, PA Dennis W. Tafoya Contents 1An Introduction to Giving (and Receiving) Advice  1 2Events and Emerging Turmoil, Disorder, and Confusion 31 3Tracking Turmoil, Disorder, and Confusion 65 4Mapping the Effects of Crises, Catastrophes, and Disasters, and Sustainability111 5Emerging Turmoil, Disorder, Trauma, and Confusion159 6Development of a Crisis-Stream193 7Accounting for a System Breakdown221 8Conclusions: Living with Consequences249 Index281 xi 272  D W Tafoya headlong into a wall of behavioral profiles that not only interpret data and information differently, but also actually may see reframing events as a tool for describing and managing what happened to their own advantage This is a particular skill of some politicians Finally, consider another slant on the pursuit of truth, the reconstruction of reality It is not necessarily a new phenomenon, but it certainly seems to be out of control This phenomenon seems to creep around a mix of crises or critical events, particularly those involving politics or politicians Briefly, this tactic translates information into opportunities Information rebranding occurs as “crisis managers” or organizational representatives offer or create their own interpretation of reality The practice is labeled “counter factual thinking” by some or by others as representing the embracing of fake news and “false facts.” At different times or in different places, these practices are simply the manufacture of false beliefs Whatever the label, this behavior poses dangerous threats to the treatment of a crisis or similar event  odge the Probabilistic-Deterministic Dilemma D with a Fresh Approach to Events, Crises, Catastrophes, and Disasters (or Thinking in General) Researchers, investigators, and problem solvers associated with work related to events and crisis containment have experienced, if not recognized, that two conflicting notions can shape their work One notion is illustrated by the belief that there are consequences related to the ­treatment of an event or a crisis that not end simply because someone has announced that the fire is out, the accident is cleaned up, the murderer is caught, or the crisis is “over.” The other sees a specific end as attainable The fire is out, or the wreckage removed These conflicting interpretations are bound to occur so why not avoid getting bogged down in a “who’s right” controversy by imagining that these phenomena have the potential to exist in two states: one as a stochastic, random probabilistic process and the other as a deterministic state with a present and past already determined.27 It is a real dichotomy, but there may be a way to resolve it or, at least, deal with the two positions 8  Conclusions: Living with Consequences  273 One good way to resolve this dichotomy is to borrow a notion that physicists used to account for a somewhat similar dilemma associated with wave theory In their case the physicists, when looking at beams of light, found that sometimes light behaved like waves and at other times it behaved as though composed of particles Clearly not the same things! Later in the same article Alexander elaborated and explained this conundrum this way: “Most of us know about the famous wave-particle duality in quantum mechanics, which allows the photon (and the electron) to attain their magical properties to explain all of the wonders of atomic physics and chemical bonding The duality states that matter (such as the electron) has both wave-like and particle-like properties depending on the context.”28 In this instance physicists resolved their dilemma by introducing a concept labeled the wave-particle duality Alexander described this phenomenon as a beautiful yet underappreciated idea “A duality,” he wrote, “allows us to describe a physical phenomenon from two different perspectives; often a flash of creative insight is needed to find both However the power of the duality goes beyond the apparent redundancy of description.”29 The physicists determined that what they observed seemed to depend on where one was at the moment It may sound silly, but if physicists looked for a wave, they saw one, and if they looked for a particle, that was what appeared.30 So why can’t those interested in studying events and the subsequent morphing of an event into a crisis or crisis-stream use the same perspective Understanding and describing what is going on so that meaningful approaches are obtained is vital to the researcher’s, ­investigator’s, and problem solver’s mission If it makes sense to view events, crises, catastrophes, and disasters using deterministic models at one time and probabilistic at another, why not?31 In this manner we capitalize on the contributions of both approaches without necessarily violating assumptions of either For example, Saldarriag wrote that in marketing research deterministic “data tracking has long been considered the gold standard of identifying consumers because of its focus on examining data that are verified and true A deterministic approach,” she wrote “is arguably the more accurate of the two data types [deterministic and probabilistic] because it matches specifically to an 274  D W Tafoya individual, building on inputted information to empower marketers to deliver finely tuned targeted advertisements or offers.”32 But while she argues in favor of using deterministically based data because of its accuracy, there are times when relying on data linked to probabilistic estimates may be more useful This is particularly true when dealing with naturally occurring phenomena associated with an event In these instances, we can refer to those times when an event or a crisis behaves deterministically and those times when its behavior is best described as a stochastic process by referring to this new phenomenon as an “event’s probabilistic-deterministic duality.” The approach makes particular sense when we speculate on what is likely to trigger the transition between an event and a crisis in the first instance and the manner in which those events may contribute to an actual crisis and its effects A deterministic approach allows the investigator to speak with a good measure of confidence regarding ways mismanagement, misconduct, misguidance, or simple negligence contributes to triggering an event’s morphing into a crisis, but we have to rely on our probability models to offer descriptions regarding what a subsequent crisis might look like and how it might unfold F inally, Working on the Crisis-Stream with a Stakeholder Team One last tool for the researcher, investigator, or problem solver to consider is that their efforts might benefit from developing and launching an “Experience Planning Tool.” This tool is a means for mapping a variety of physical, psychological, and cognitive objectives and activities associated with a “crisis investigation.” The ultimate objective of this effort is the production of an “Ecological Attack Straightway.” This is a combination plan, collection of maneuvers and artifice, for you to use as a means for accomplishing your mission There are four parts to operationalizing the Experience Planning Tool First, build a new social network This is your own network comprised of stakeholders you know and some you not know The latter, importantly, will come from or be associated with the organization that is the 8  Conclusions: Living with Consequences  275 subject of your study This network will be group of stakeholders with a common interest defined by you It is an information-rich environment that recognizes the network members, who while having a common interest also maintain their own agenda Your objective is to create a diverse set of different perspectives from which to conduct your research Moira Alexander’s article on “7 tips to transform difficult stakeholders into project partners”33 is an excellent resource in this instance Second, the Experience Planning Tool is an opportunity for you to demonstrate and enhance your own credibility You demonstrate your credibility as you build the network You enhance your credibility because you are now, in a way, becoming part of their organization This is an important step for it can open channels with the organization’s leadership or respected key stakeholders You have multiple social networks linked in any of a number of different ways Third, the Experience Planning Tool aids the development of an operationally safe environment You test your notions, your theories, your hypotheses, and your plans from this platform It provides a level of security you may need It helps you avoid surprise attacks because the new members of this network may know where and from whom adversaries may launch attacks against you or your efforts Finally, you have a stage from which to build and launch your “Ecological Attack Shell.” The platform affords an opportunity for you to work “privately in public.” You and only the closest associates know the nature and make-up of the Attack Shell Figure 8.1 illustrates a schematic of the Attack Shell The Attack Shell’s purpose is to outline three to five key areas, “points of entry,” for you to use to accomplish your objective These are areas you perceive to be essential, ecologically sensitive regions from which you need to collect key information Each is a particular or specific region but combined they reflect your best estimate of the target organizations strengths, weaknesses, and vulnerabilities you have to negotiate with and/or take advantage of in your efforts Some of these areas are data pools, and others are obstacles or impediments to negotiate The Experience Planning Tool and Ecological Attack Shell are products to help the researcher, investigator, or problem solver best utilize the material in this book The key for interpreting the information in Fig. 8.1 is as follows It is an abbreviated sketch but it makes its point 276  D W Tafoya MA G2 Information Needs G1 Data Verification O1.1 O1.2 A11.1 A11.2 O1.3 A22.1 A22.2 O2.1 A33.1 MA = Mission Accomplished G1 = Data Verification GO1.1 = Data Analysis A11.1 = Brainstorming Data Quality A11.2 = Focus Groups on Data Quality G2 = Information Needs GO2.1 Map of overall information needs A22.1 = Information Needs Discussed A22.2 = Information Needs Defined GO2.2 = Primary Data Pool A22.1 = Data pool described A22.2 = Emails needed x stakeholders A22.3 = Interviews with Primary Stakeholders A21.1 A21.2 O2.2 G3 Security O2.3 A22.1 O3.2 O3.1 A32.1 A31.1 O3.3 A32.1 A32.3 A33.1 GO2.3 = Secondary Data Pool A23.1 = Historical Data Needed A23.2 = Interviews with Secondary Stakeholders G3 = Security GO3.1 = Personnel and Security A31.1 = Get security clearance A31.2 = Log visits to stakeholders GO3.2 = Technology Tools A32.1 = Surveillance Devices A32.2 = Recording Devices in place A 32.3 = Lap tops secure and in place GO3.3 = Stakeholder Involvement A33.1 = Communication to Stakeholders Fig 8.1  Ecological attack shell for use as an ecological attack straightway Conclusion In their book, Beyond Aviation Human Factors, Maurino et al summarized core organizational failures that contribute to accident events in the aviation industry.34 Their material covers a variety of pertinent topics that not only parallel material presented in this book but, in hindsight, also provide a way for documenting tragedies like those associated with the Boeing 737 Max Key among their conclusions are how top management’s orientation to safety contributes to creating a crisis situation as conflicts among production and safety goals, training, maintenance management, and failures by regulatory agencies arise 8  Conclusions: Living with Consequences  277 The treatment of their material is really quite good and could be on the desktops of most involved in crisis-related research Their material also illustrates why and how material presented in this book can sit along theirs on the same desk In this book classical approaches to crisis investigations are shadowed as we followed more molecular and sometimes evanescent paths to the topic Material covered reflects the preparation needed to build a game plan for the researcher, investigator, or problem solver Visualizations of the entire subject and event scenario are a background theme for topics seeking to identify strengths, weaknesses, and vulnerabilities across primary organization components (e.g., people, processes, and materials) Readers are encouraged to look for compromised points that activate with a crisis Mismanagement and/or negligence may be stimuli to an event’s morphing, but subtleties linked to the mechanics of the full stream, the event, crisis, catastrophe, or disaster are the means for the morphing crisis to drive through an entire organization or stakeholder network Models of wave theory and tools like Markov chains illustrate how a phenom-stream can plow through an organization spawning rippling effects to disrupt the orderly nature of a stakeholder’s network Books like that by Maurino et al provide excellent illustrations of ways twisted rubble and broken parts contaminate a crisis scene, while this book pays particular attention to the filth and grit associated with the same Maurino et al point to top management’s failed commitment to safety as a contributor, while this one treats with disgust the lack of ethics associated with cheap values, improper actions, and bloody consequences Fill the courts with people who think like you, protect the blue backs of your brothers in arms, and fabricate rationale for the officer’s actions and favoritism and injustice become their own events that trigger yet another crisis Chapters in the book aim to help the researcher, investigator, and problem solver construct their own opportunities when none others are available Opportunities needed to get inside the organization, inside the minds and feelings of stakeholders, to get information—the often dirty information that is at the bottom of embarrassing decisions and actions of the politician, clergyman, and executive Opportunities to study why movements like Black Lives Matter and MeToo or organizations like the Southern Poverty Law Center, The American Civil Liberties Union 278  D W Tafoya (ACLU), or the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence exist to fight the battle those elected to fight not These are among the many opportunities for the systemic researcher, investigator, or problem solver using the tools in this book Perhaps the hardest part for those researchers, investigators, and problem solvers may be watching the stakeholders who suffer because of the event and morphed crisis Families and friends who have lost or watched loved ones suffer because of another’s action are part of the debris field This book wants them included in the analysis Their story is part of the researcher’s, investigator’s, and problem solver’s quest Their story is part of the assignment; it is the downside of the turmoil associated with every crisis, catastrophe, and disaster Long after the rubble is cleared, these stakeholders carry the crisis, catastrophe, and disaster with them through injury and trauma These are the ones whose personal missions launch social movements, demonstrations, petitions for action, and the motivation for this last chapter One can only hope the executives overseeing the organization that made the guns, unsafe cars, or airplanes, or the leaders who pardoned military officers, politicians, ministers, or law enforcement personnel will wake some day and recognize their own crisis-related trauma as the stakeholders they are Finally, we conclude with one last quote This one from Alfred Doeblin’s book, The Living Thoughts of Confucius.35 In the book, Doeblin first reviews Confucius’ life and concludes with material from his ­writings The tragedy associated with what Confucius wrote more than 2000 years ago is that the same types of mismanagement and neglect that plagued his times are evident even today The innate justice of the world may not be immediately apparent, but all the accounts of ancient history agree that bad government carries the germ of its downfall within itself, and that good government thrives This rise or fall according to heavenly and earthly laws appears also in daily life Failures and omissions upset the normal world system and cause it to behave like a severely sick organism There are wars, floods, earthquakes, long droughts, epidemics and all such things of which the wise take note… Trouble, misfortune, terrible events are the warning cries of a suffering world, cries urging men to restore order and return to the ‘right path.’ 8  Conclusions: Living with Consequences  279 Notes Ellen Nakashima, Brittany Shammas, and Devlin Barrett “The Pensacola shooting gunman was a military student from Saudi Arabia training in the U.S., officials say.” The Washington Dec 6, 2019 at 10:15 p.m EST Kathleen McLaughlin, Kathleen “Tragic coda: Years after a triple murder gutted a family, one last death is mourned.” The Washington Post November 18, 2019 at 10:28 a.m EST Lindsay Schnell “More Americans than ever are leaving the Catholic Church after the sex abuse scandal Here’s why.” USA TODAY April 22, 2019 Pratyusa Manadhata and Jeannette M.  Wing “An Attack Surface Metric.” CMU-CS-05-155 School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University July 2005 Ibid Brayden G. King and Sarah A. Soule Administrative Science Quarterly Vol 52, No 3, September 2007, pp. 413-442 Helen Reid, Sudip Kar-Gupta “Paris riots hurt French tourism and transport stocks.” Business News, Reuters December 3, 2018 / 5:52 AM Ibid Casey Jaywork “So You Want to Protest: A Beginner’s Guide.” Seattle Weekly, Friday, April 28, 2017 10 Ibid 11 Ibid 12 Ibid 13 Ed Silverman “Punish people, not just corporations.” The Boston Globe, October 26, 2015 14 Ibid 15 United States Department of Justice (DOJ) “Deputy Attorney General Sally Quillian Yates Delivers Remarks at New York University School of Law Announcing New Policy on Individual Liability in Matters of Corporate Wrongdoing.” September 10, 2015 16 Ibid 17 Jacob Goldstein “When Companies Agree To Huge Penalties But Don’t Admit Doing Anything Wrong.” Planet Money, National Public Radio, February 5, 2013 18 Bill Chappell “VW Chairman Now Included in German Prosecutor’s Volkswagen Emissions Probe.” The Two-Way National Public Radio, November 6, 2016 280  D W Tafoya 19 Ibid 20 Marilyn Geewax “Wells Fargo, Samsung And Volkswagen: Can A Good Name Be Restored?” The Two-Way, Breaking News From National Public Radio October 13, 2016 21 Ibid 22 Thomas P. Kinney “Stockholder Derivative Suits: Demand and Futility Where the Board Fails to Stop Wrongdoers.” Marquette Law Review, 78, p. 172, 1994 23 Dennis W. Tafoya Managing Organizational Crisis and Brand Trauma (Palgrave Macmillan 2018) 24 Katey Troutman “5 of the Most Hated Businesses in America.” The Cheat Sheet October 16, 2019, 3:33:06 PM 25 Katey Troutman “10 companies with the worst reputations.” MarketWatch Reuters, Published: Mar 5, 2013 9:32 a.m ET 26 Katey Troutman “Companies With the Best (and Worst) Reputations.”, Published: May 12, 2016 6:52 a.m ET 27 David F. Anderson “Connections, similarities, and differences between stochastic and deterministic models of biochemical reaction systems.” Systems Biomedical Seminar, April 29, 2014 28 Alexander, Stephon H “2011: What Scientific Concept Would Improve Everybody’s Cognitive Toolkit?” “In the News” response-detail/11424 Accessed: 11/21/19 29 Ibid 30 Jim Stein How Math Sees the World New York: HaperCollins, 2008 pp. 46-53 31 Ibid 32 Julie Saldarriag “Why utilizing both deterministic and probabilistic data can provide added context about who your prospective buyers are and the best ways to engage them.” Dun & Bradstreet D& July 11, 2018 33 Moira Alexander “7 tips to transform difficult stakeholders into project partners.”, July 01, 2015 05:23 AM PT 34 Daniel E. Maurino, James Reason, Neil Johnston, Rob B. Lee Beyond Aviation Human Factors: Safety in High Technology Systems London: Routledge, 1995 35 Alfred Doeblin Confucius Greenwich, Conn.: Fawcett World Library p. 30 Index1 A B Adversaries groups, 20, 22, 66, 106, 127, 129, 146, 149, 150, 155, 179, 238, 239, 255, 271, 275 Advisors, 120, 134, 136, 219, 222, 228, 229, 231, 232, 235–244, 257, 259, 265 Affiliation patterns, 14, 214, 269 Aggravating conditions for events fatigue as an aggravating condition, 87 thresholds as an aggravating condition, 86 time as an aggravating condition, 86 Balance point for an event or crisis, the “real” problem, 131 BBC, 81, 83, 153, 154 Black Lives Matter, 91, 129, 166, 171, 190n20, 277 Boards advisory, 117 directors, 162, 229 Boeing, vi, 5, 14, 30n3, 80, 82, 107n5, 136, 139, 140, 173, 181, 191n40, 214, 216, 228, 229, 239, 271, 276 Brand or image impacted because of a crisis, 121 British Petroleum (BP), vi, 80, 82, 83, 85, 86, 90, 120, 136, 139, 140, 174, 214, 239, 271  Note: Page numbers followed by ‘n’ refer to notes © The Author(s) 2020 D W Tafoya, Crisis, Catastrophe, and Disaster in Organizations, 281 282 Index C Capacity to perform force, 125, 188 implementation capabilities, 123, 124, 188 operating conditions, 95, 125, 188 operational orientation, 125, 188 reaction tactics, 188 speed to perform, 124, 188 Catastrophe, v–viii, 1–6, 8, 11, 15–17, 23, 24, 28, 30n4, 48, 54, 61, 62, 65, 67, 69, 72, 77–79, 81–85, 88, 89, 91–107, 111–156, 159, 163, 165, 167, 172, 173, 175, 176, 187, 188, 193, 194, 201, 213, 216, 217, 219, 222, 227, 234, 237, 243–244, 246, 247, 249–268, 272–274, 277, 278 Catholic Church, 91, 136, 173, 216, 239, 254, 270, 271 Chief Executive Officer and events (CEO), 85, 86, 109n24, 139, 189n8, 191n40, 221 China, 15, 16, 30n8, 57 Choice individual, 13 institutional, 13 Complexity theory and events, see Self-organized behavior Containment as a strategy for an event, crisis, catastrophe or disaster, 105, 126 Corporate boards, 117, 120, 136, 235, 240 Credibility, v, 92, 144, 226, 240, 241, 266, 275 Crisis crisis-stream, vi, 4, 82, 124, 131, 174, 185, 193–219, 222, 223, 246, 267–270, 273–275 phenom-stream, vi, 4, 82, 103, 117, 176, 180, 186, 188, 202, 223, 234 Criticality, 123, 124, 126 Cyber attacks, 53 D Deep Water Horizon, 120 Definitions, 5, 89, 97, 99, 102, 146, 148, 160, 187, 195, 206, 266 Diffusion strategies, 125 Disaster, v–viii, 1–6, 8, 15–17, 23, 24, 28, 34, 48, 54, 61, 62, 63n9, 65, 67, 69–72, 77–85, 88–107, 109n29, 111–156, 159, 162, 163, 165, 167, 172–176, 180, 187, 188, 193, 194, 201, 213, 216–219, 222, 227, 234, 237, 243–244, 246, 247, 249–268, 272–274, 277, 278 E Emergence of events, 161 Energy, 28, 70, 71, 74, 76, 78, 84, 88, 93, 99, 100, 124, 127, 129, 138, 160, 161, 164, 173–175, 180, 185, 186, 205 Equilibrium, 161, 172, 185, 208  Index  Event energy and events, 70, 71, 74, 76, 88, 138, 186 four features of events, 74 intensity of events, 39, 72, 74, 84, 100, 129, 138 magnitude of events, 23, 58, 71, 74, 99, 100, 128, 137, 173 manifestation and structure of events, 71, 100, 127, 128 Event instability, 75 Events and personal plan of action, 78 Events can be contained, vi, 47, 58, 74, 76, 100, 127, 129, 130, 194, 251 Event stickiness and tackiness, 74, 100, 130 Event’s traceable border, 75, 94, 132 Event-stream, vi, 75, 83, 172 Event types, 10–11, 41–61 283 I Impairment as a measure of an event-stream’s effects, 103 Incidence chain, 65–87, 149 Incidence rate defined, 118, 174 Influence, 17, 23–28, 66, 94, 99, 134, 139, 146, 150, 172, 179, 180, 209–217, 252, 266, 267 Investigator, v, vi, 1, 9, 10, 33, 54, 61, 65, 66, 69, 71, 73–75, 81, 84–87, 92, 112, 113, 120, 125, 127, 131, 153, 155, 183, 203, 204, 207, 213, 221, 222, 224, 228, 233, 235, 242, 267, 269, 272–275, 277, 278 The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), 58, 270 K F Fabricated sightlessness, 208 Federal Emergency Management Association (FEMA), 3, 79, 102, 165 “Fight for Freedom Stand with Hong Kong,” 16 H Homeland Security, Department of, 110n34, 165 Hong Kong, 5, 15, 16, 30n2, 57, 58, 63n7, 129, 150, 164, 190n17, 213 Hurricane Katrina, 58, 63n8, 271 Kaepernick, Colin, 91, 109n16, 145, 146, 149 L Law enforcement, 8, 20, 153, 165, 213, 222, 252, 261, 278 Leadership and crisis treatment, 212 Leadership and events, 33, 44, 51, 120, 121, 137, 210, 222, 224, 236, 242, 246 Life cycles of an event, crisis, catastrophe and disaster, 17, 121, 219 284 Index M Magnitude or mass of an event, 138 Manifestation or structure of an event, 71, 89, 100, 127, 128, 138 March for Our Lives, 90 Markov models, 115, 117, 118 Maximum tolerable period of disruption (MTPOD), 61, 63n10 Media, vi, 3, 20, 84, 91, 98, 99, 105, 113, 115, 120, 151, 153, 154, 167, 175, 185, 202, 212, 214, 218, 222, 223, 226, 242, 244, 247, 251, 259, 260, 262, 264, 267 Memorylessness and markov models, 115 Me Too Movement, 108n13, 216 Morph, vi, 3, 16, 41, 50, 137, 138, 161, 163, 166, 169, 176, 193, 213, 215, 217, 218 Morphing, vi, 3, 4, 6, 11, 23, 28, 51, 61, 94, 95, 100, 101, 115, 120, 121, 139, 140, 153, 163–166, 170, 173, 179, 181, 182, 186–188, 193–195, 209, 212, 214, 219, 221, 222, 224, 227, 234, 236, 238, 246, 273, 274, 277 Mutant effects, 168 N National Basketball Association, 15, 16 “National Response Framework” (FEMA), 102, 110n34 National Transportation and Safety Board (NTSB), O Organizational type community military organizations, 12 police, 12 religious institutions, 12, 238 schools, 12, 32, 42, 54, 91, 238 terrorist, 12 enterprise, 12, 53, 182 individual contributor, 53, 182 team, 53, 182 typology of organizations, 53, 182 P Performance, viii, ix, 6, 26, 27, 29, 33–35, 43, 45–49, 69, 93–96, 102, 105, 113, 123–126, 133, 137, 146, 152, 179, 188, 193–209, 218, 222, 225–227, 231, 233–236, 240–246, 256, 262, 271 Phenomena, see Events; Crisis; Catastrophe; Disaster; Timelines and phenom-streams Phenom-stream, vi, vii, 4, 80, 82, 103, 117, 161, 162, 168, 172, 174, 176, 179, 180, 182, 186–188, 202, 214, 223, 234, 277 Police, 2, 4, 12, 35, 36, 59, 62, 71, 75, 77, 78, 82, 144–146,  Index  149, 164–166, 186, 200, 203, 207, 209, 261, 266 Politicians and events, 4, 54, 83, 130, 132, 183, 222, 272 Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), 119, 251 Pressure curves, 218 Problem solver, v, vi, 1, 9, 61, 65, 66, 69, 74, 75, 81, 84–86, 88, 92, 93, 105, 113, 127, 131, 154, 155, 203, 207, 213, 221, 222, 228, 233, 235, 242, 267, 269, 272–275, 277, 278 Products, outcomes and impact (POI) of events, 17, 70, 72–76, 79, 86, 89, 90, 100, 130, 133, 138, 159–161, 172 Public relations, 5, 7, 8, 10, 14, 18, 55, 70, 85, 96, 112, 186, 242 Public Works Department in Tredyffrin Pennsylvania, viii, 45 R Regulators, 18, 20, 146, 153, 204, 244 Religions and events, 203 Researcher, v, vi, 1, 2, 9, 33, 36, 38, 59, 61, 65, 66, 69, 74, 75, 81, 84, 86–88, 92, 99, 112, 113, 117–119, 125, 127, 133, 153, 155, 160, 188, 203, 204, 207, 213, 221, 224, 228, 233, 235, 242, 247, 259, 267, 269, 272–275, 277, 278 285 Resistance routines, 203, 204 Risk management, 49, 125 S Self-authenticating posture vs self-fulfilling prophesy, 208 Self-organized behavior, 77, 78 737 Max, vi, 5, 14, 30n3, 80, 82, 107n5, 139, 173, 181, 214, 229, 276 Social network, v, vi, 2, 14, 20, 21, 23, 31, 38, 39, 44, 49, 50, 53, 57, 66, 69, 75, 81–83, 90, 91, 93, 99, 104, 107, 113, 115, 116, 120, 122, 127, 135, 138, 144, 146, 150–152, 160, 174, 179, 185, 196, 197, 215–217, 219, 231, 234, 252–259, 266, 267, 274, 275 Spontaneous opportunity crises, 174 Stakeholders, v, 2, 31, 65, 111, 159, 195, 221, 249 Stakeholder swarms, 90, 105, 150 Stickiness or tackiness of an event, 74, 98, 130 Stochastic vs deterministic, 272, 274, 280n27 Stream-constituent duality, 85, 87, 89 T Threats, 13–15, 37, 38, 89, 97, 104, 118, 119, 125, 126, 130, 135, 147, 148, 150, 154, 165, 182–184, 195–198, 286 Index 200, 210, 211, 233, 239, 245, 258, 263, 272 Thrill seekers, 20, 222 Timelines used to map an event to Phenom-stream, 79 Time on task, 93, 123, 135, 188 Tipping points, 122, 123, 186 Transitions in the eventstream, 76–78 Trauma architectural, v, 21, 104, 143, 146, 153, 155 brand, v, 20, 104, 122, 128, 129, 142–144, 146, 153, 154, 187 operational, v, 21, 104, 142, 147, 148, 153, 262 trauma bombs, 149 Trump, Donald, 14, 33, 62n2, 145, 163, 187, 201–205 V Value, viii, ix, 17, 26, 29, 30, 32, 33, 46–49, 51, 61, 62, 69, 87, 102, 118, 125, 126, 132, 135, 153, 154, 198, 205, 212, 214, 218, 219, 222, 223, 225, 229, 231, 246, 254, 255, 257, 261, 267–270, 277 Value-Action-Consequences model, 14, 150 Value-added chains, 125 Volkswagen, 80, 120, 139, 140, 239, 264, 265, 271, 280n20 W Washington Post, 153, 164, 279n2 Wave-particle duality, 84, 85, 273 Wave process, 80, 162 Wells Fargo, 120, 214, 229, 230, 239, 265, 280n20 .. .Crisis, Catastrophe, and Disaster in Organizations Dennis W.  Tafoya Crisis, Catastrophe, and Disaster in Organizations Managing Threats to Operations, Architecture, Brand, and Stakeholders Dennis W.  Tafoya... devoted to distinguishing among events, crises, catastrophes, and disasters, and exploring them in terms of stakeholder needs, wants, and desires, and, of course, the types of organizations involved... tools that, when mastered, can add to ways to think, talk, or write about the event-to-­ disaster process so that others will want to listen In short, knowing and understanding your role with regard
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