Nghiên cứu xuất khẩu hàng công nghệ cao của việt nam tt tiếng anh

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Nghiên cứu xuất khẩu hàng công nghệ cao của việt nam tt tiếng anh

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1 INTRODUCTION Rationale In recent years, along with the vigorous integration into the world economy and remarkable increase in foreign investment attraction, Vietnam's export structure has witnessed significant changes The proportion of high-tech products in the total export value of goods rose sharply from less than 10% in the period 20002009 to over 35% in 2017 As a result, the share of Vietnam's hightech exports in the world has grown noticeably However, Vietnam's export of high-tech products in the past years still has several limitations, such as being heavily dependent on FDI enterprises, focusing on only few items like electricity, electronics, and telecommunication equipment exporting to some major markets is not corresponding to the national potentials and advantages as well as poor diversification of export markets for high-tech products Therefore, analyzing the current situation of Vietnam's hightech goods export development, based on which appropriate proposals could be recommended for further enhancement, is truly a strategic and meaningful task both theoretical and practically Stemming from the above reasons, the author chooses the thesis topic "Research on high technology exports of Vietnam" with the hope of contributing to promoting the quality as well as the competitiveness of Vietnam's high-tech products Research objectives 2.1 General objectives The thesis presents an analysis of the current situation of Vietnam’s high-tech exports; accordingly, relevant solutions are proposed in order to improve the export quality and foster integration into global value chain to better exploit the national competitiveness 2.2 Specific objectives - The thesis contributes to systematize and clarify theories on the export of high-tech goods; drawing experience lessons in exporting high-tech products from some countries in the world - The thesis assesses the current situation of Vietnam's hightech export in the period of 2000-2017 and identifies the influential factors affecting the export of Vietnam's high-tech goods - The thesis proposes the orientation and solutions for developing Vietnam's high-tech export Research object The objects of the thesis are the theoretical and practical issues about Vietnam's high-tech export 2 Research scope In terms of space: The thesis focuses on examining the export of Vietnam’s high-tech goods compared to that of some ASEAN countries as well as different regions in the world In terms of time: The project focuses on researching and collecting data related to Vietnam's high-tech export in the period 2000-2017 In terms of content: The thesis focuses on investigating the rationale, current performance and development status of Vietnam's high-tech export in manufactured goods which are products of the second sector of the economy (first sector: raw products; third sector: services) This is also a major section for creating high-tech products Contribution Firstly, the thesis contributes to systematize and elucidate the theoretical and practical basis for the export of high-tech goods Secondly, with such a sophisticated process of data collection over an 18-year period (2000-2017), the thesis is one of the scientific works with profound and comprehensive research on the export of Vietnam’s high-tech products Thirdly, the thesis has clarified a number of factors affecting Vietnam's exports of high-tech products, including two new elements, namely intellectual and institutional property rights, which have not been used in previous studies in Vietnam Fourthly, based on the analysis of the current situation of high-tech exports, the thesis proposes specific solutions to boost the export of Vietnam’s high-tech products up to the year 2025, with orientation to 2030 3 Chapter OVERVIEW OF HIGH-TECH EXPORTS 1.1 Overseas studies on high-tech exports Over the years, there have been many researches related to exporting high-tech goods done overseas such as those by Lucas (1998), Schneider (2005), Balay (2005), Srholec (2007), Ferragina and Pastore (2007), Tebaldi (2011), Kilavuz and Altaytopcu (2012), Xing (2012), Sandu and Ciocanel (2014) Focus research topics often include: types of high-tech goods, characteristics of high-tech exports, the role of high-tech exports towards the economy, process of promoting high-tech exports of a country or a group of countries, commercial exchange among countries on high-tech goods, the relationship between R&D, innovation and FDI in high-tech exports, factors affecting the export of high-tech goods 1.2 Studies on high-tech exports in Vietnam In Vietnam, there are a number of different studies on the export of goods in general and that of specific items in particular However, there have not been many research works on high-tech exports in Vietnam so far 1.3 Research gap First, there are still few researches which clarifies the development of high-tech exports both in width and depth Besides, there have not been many studies employing the latest and most updated data on the export of high-tech products Second, one of the factors that has not been studied much in previous studies is the assessment of the competitiveness of hightech goods Third, the factors affecting the export of high-tech goods have not been clearly defined Fourth, there have not been many studies on the protection of intellectual property rights affecting the export of high-tech goods Fifth, the institutional element, which is also considered to be an important factor affecting the export of high-tech goods, has not been sharply examined in previous studies Sixth, it can be said that there have not been many specific and comprehensive studies on the development of Vietnam's hi tech exports Chapter THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL BASIS ON HIGH-TECH EXPORTS 2.1 Theories on high-tech exports 2.1.1 Related concepts a Export: Export is the business of goods and services out of the territory of a country and includes organized trading relations both inside and outside the territory for profit purposes, boosting the production of goods, economic restructure, stability and gradual improvement of the people’s living standards b High-tech: High-tech can be understood as: the technology integrated from advanced scientific and technological achievements; creation of products with outstanding features, high quality and added value; being capable of forming new manufacturing and service industries; strong impact on the development of many branches, economic, social, defense and security sectors; intensive requirements for costs and highly qualified human resources for research and development c High-tech products: are new products, with superior quality and features, high scientific content and added value, produced by high technology applications 2.1.2 Role of exports a Towards the economy Export is an activity aimed at exploiting the national advantages Export imposes a strong impact on the economic structure of the whole economy, contributing to economic growth as well as affecting the industry structure making the most effective use of relative and absolute advantages of the country Export plays an important role in promoting related industries Another important role of export is to increase foreign exchange reserves Export contributes to addressing employment, improving people's living standards and reducing poverty reduction 5 Export stimulates the innovation of equipment and production technology Exports help expand and deepen the external relations with other countries in the world b Towards enterprises Export is the earliest international business activity with the lowest cost and risk Exporting is the simplest activity in international business Therefore, transactions and risk expenses in case of unstable political, economic, cultural and social environment will be the lowest compared to other activities 2.1.3 Role of high-tech exports Firstly, the export of high-tech goods plays an important role in promoting a country's economic growth and development Secondly, high-tech exports promote the process of economic restructuring Thirdly, high-tech exports help create jobs and high incomes for both unskilled and educated workers at manufacturing enterprises Fourthly, the export of high-tech products contributes to the expansion and promotion of external economic relations while enhancing the country's economic position on the international stage Fifth, high-tech exports contribute to improving the national management mechanism and economic policies in line with international laws and practices 2.1.4 Types of high-tech products The above-mentioned high-tech goods include 18 products, namely electrical, electronic, telecommunication items, medical instruments, cameras … 2.1.5 Theories on exports It can be seen that international trade driven by the exploitation of absolute, comparative and competitive advantages as well as the business environment of the countries results in the trading activities to promote the advantages of each nation 2.1.6 Characteristics of high-tech - High-tech exports are often the result of the process of increasing investment in research and development - Export of CNC products is concentrated mainly in some countries, including both developed and developing nations 6 - Developing countries are catching up with developed ones in the export of high-tech goods - The comparative advantage of high-tech products in developing countries has increased relatively rapidly in recent years - Export of high-tech goods in developing countries are under great influence of multinational corporations through FDI 2.1.7 Research content on high-tech exports 2.1.7.1 Size and growth rate of exports In this part, the thesis examines the trade balance for high-tech goods to see whether there is a trade surplus or deficit of high-tech goods in Vietnam 2.1.7.2 Export market expansion The goal of expanding the relations for high-tech exports is to diversify export markets; consolidating and fostering the market share of Vietnamese goods in traditional markets; create a breakthrough to expand new potential export markets 2.1.7.3 Exports restructure Restructuring the export structure of high-tech goods is also of great importance which reveals the change in the relevant manufacturing industry 2.1.7.4 Competitiveness in high-tech exports Improving product competitiveness is one of the crucial factors in order to expand the export market and increase the scale for hightech goods 2.1.8 Factors affecting high-tech exports * Size of the exporting country’s economy * Size of the importing country's economy * Available resources in the field of science and technology * Investment in research and development (R&D) * Inflation * Infrastructure for export activities * Export incentive/ management policy * Distance between two countries * The openness of the exporting country’s economy * International and regional economic links * Foreign direct investment 2.2 Practical basis of high-tech exports 2.2.1 Experience Lessons of high-tech exports from some countries in the world 2.2.1.1 Lesson by Japan 2.2.1.2 Lesson by China 2.2.1.3 Lesson by South Korea 2.2.2 Lessons drawn for Vietnam’s high-tech exports Chapter RESEARCH METHODOLODY 3.1 Research questions What are the main contents of research on high-tech exports? How was Vietnam's high-tech exports in the past time? Specifically: What were the outstanding features of Vietnam's hightech exports in the 2000-2017 period? What were the major constraints of Vietnam's high-tech exports? What factors affect the export of Vietnam's high-tech goods? What are the key solutions to promote the development of Vietnam's high-tech exports? 3.2 Research Method 3.2.1 Research approach and Analytical framework 3.2.1.1 Research approach a Systematic approach: This approach is used in assessing internal and external factors that have an impact on Vietnam's hightech exports b Interdisciplinary approach: Based on the limitations and weaknesses in the inter-sectoral linkages, appropriate solutions are proposed c Typical Case study (direct study of specific products) With the research content focusing on some of Vietnam's major high-tech products, the corresponding approach of the thesis is the typical case study (on some high-value export products) 3.2.1.2 Analytical framework a Analytical framework Size and speed of export development Factors affecting product supply Export markets Vietnam’s hightech exports Factors affecting product demand Restructuring of exports Competitiveness in hightech exports Favorable and Unfavorable Factors affecting export Solutions for fostering Vietnam’s export of high-tech goods Policies on high-tech export developments b Research model analytical framework As shown in Figure 3.1, factors affecting international trade flows are divided into three main categories, namely: factors affecting supply, factors affecting demand, and attracting/ hindering factors… Factors affecting supply are those that represent the production capacity of the exporting country such as GDP and population Push Border of exporting country Border of importing country Importing country Exporting country Capacity of exporting country Export promotion/ management policy Factors affecting supply Pull Distance between countries Attracting/ Hindering factors Export promotion/ management policy Purchasing power of importing country Factors affecting demand Factors affecting international trade flows Figure 3.1: Gravity model in International trade Source: Đào Ngọc Tiến (2009) Based on the literature review on previous research models combined with theoretical analysis of the factors affecting high-tech exports as well as the actual conditions of our country, the thesis formulates an analytical framework examining factors affecting Vietnam's high-tech exports Details are shown in Figure 3.2 below: Figure 3.2: Analytical framework of factors affecting Vietnam’s high-tech exports Source: Author’s synthesis : Direct impact : Indirect impact 3.2.2 Data Collection Method The thesis collects secondary data to obtain assessments on the status of Vietnam's high-tech exports Data were collected from various sources such as General Statistics Office, General Department of Customs, World Bank (WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), United Nations … 3.2.3 Data synthesis method: 3.2.3.1 Tables, statistical graphs 3.2.3.2 Statistical classification 3.2.4 Data analysis method 3.2.4.1 Descriptive statistics 10 3.2.4.2 Comparative statistical 3.2.4.3 Augmented gravity model 3.2.4.4 Analysis of constant market share 3.3 Research criteria Indicators reflecting the market share of exports and imports Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index Regional Orientation Index (ROI) Trade Intensity Index (TII) Chapter CURRENT SITUATION OF VIETNAM’S HIGHTECH EXPORTS 4.1 Situation of Vietnam’s exports 4.1.1 International economic integration process of Vietnam Vietnam's economic relations with other countries and international organizations have been increasingly expanded and developed So far, Vietnam has established diplomatic relations with 185 countries and territories, promoting trade and investment relations with 224 markets on all continents 4.1.2 Size and growth of merchandise exports 11 250000 5000 200000 150000 -5000 100000 -10000 50000 -15000 -20000 19901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016 Xuất (tr US$) Exports (mi USD) Nhập (tr US$) Imports (mi USD) Cán cân TM (Trục phải) Trade balance (right axis) Figure 4.1 Trade in goods of Vietnam during 1990-2017 period Source: World Bank, General Department of Customs and author’s caculations, 2018 4.1.3 Export markets 120000 80000 East ĐôngAsia Á- – Pacific TBD Europe Châu Âu và& Middle TrungAsia Á 60000 Latin America Mỹ La tinh &và Caribe Caribe 40000 Middle Trung Asia Á & North Africa Bắc Phi North America 20000 South Asia 100000 Bắc Mỹ Nam Á 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Sub-Saharan Africa Châu Phi Hạ Sahara Figure 4.2 Export value of Vietnam to other regions in the world during 2000-2017 period Source: World Bank, 2019 12 The process of international economic integration, multilateralization and promotion of comparative advantages have gained Vietnam trade relations with 224 countries and territories in all continents worldwide Total export value to East Asia and the Pacific reached over USD 100 billion in 2017, accounting for nearly 47% of Vietnam's total exports Next come North American countries with 21% of total exports in 2017 Table 4.4 Vietnam’s export turnover of goods by foreign trade standards SITC during 2000-2017 period Unit: million USD Goods categorized by SITC Total export value 2000 2005 2010 2011 2013 2015 2017 14482,7 32447,1 72236,7 96905,7 132032,9 162016,7 214019,1 TTTT BQ (%) 17,17 Raw or semi-processed 8078,8 16100,7 25187,5 33736,7 products 33782,6 30299,3 34967,6 9,00 - Food & live animals 18561,2 20339,5 25036,7 11,76 - Beverages & Cigarettes 3779,5 6345,7 13432,5 17442,9 18,8 150,0 301,3 358,0 538,1 568,4 473,2 20,89 384,0 1229,1 3373,8 4716,1 4742,3 4108,2 5178,0 16,54 - Fuels, lubricants and related 3824,7 materials 8358,0 7979,7 11007,8 9685,2 4995,8 4119,6 0,44 255,8 287,4 160,1 4,83 98172,4 131710,7 179043,2 21,65 - Raw materials not for eating, except for fuels - Oil, fats, animal & plant waxes 71,8 17,9 100,2 211,9 Processed or refined products 6397,5 16341,0 47012,5 63106,1 - Chemicals and related products 158,5 536,0 - Processed goods classified by raw materials 911,1 2165,4 4478,3 21,72 13844,2 17057,5 22191,3 20,66 3145,1 11476,1 18834,9 43027,1 60563,8 89465,9 28,40 4051,9 10494,5 25168,9 30520,9 37469,5 49991,1 62907,7 17,51 - Machines, vehicles and 1276,0 other spare parts - Processed goods Other goods 6,4 5,4 1881,9 2875,7 3831,6 8485,6 10874,6 36,7 62,9 77,9 4098,3 6,7 8,3 1,54 Source: General Statistics Office, 2019 4.1.4 Structure of exporting products In terms of exporting products, there has been a dramatic change in the structure of Vietnam's exports in the past two decades, in which raw or preliminary processed goods have sharply decreased from the proportion of 55.8% of total export turnover in 2000 to 16.3% in 2017 13 Table 4.5 10 product groups with the highest export turnover of Vietnam in the period from 2016 to 2017 Unit: Billion US$ Index 10 Product group 2016 2017 Cell phones of all kinds and components 34,32 45,27 Textiles 23,82 26,04 Computers, electronic products and components 18,96 25,94 Footwear products 13,00 14,65 Machinery, equipment, tools and other spare parts 10,11 12,77 Seafood products 7,05 8,32 Wood and wood products 6,96 7,66 Means of transport and spare parts 6,06 6,99 Cameras, camcorders and components 2,96 3,8 Fibers and yarns of all kinds 2,93 3,59 Total 126,17 155,03 Compare 2017 with 2016 (%) 31,91 9,32 36,81 12,69 26,31 18,01 10,06 15,35 28,38 22,53 22,87 Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade, 2018 In terms of growth, the group of computers, electronic products and components has the strongest growth with a continuous growth of 36.8% with an export turnover of nearly US $ 26 billion., being asymptotic with textile and garment groups with 26.04 billion US $ In addition, the group of cameras, camcorders and components also saw a strong increase with the continuous growth rate reached about 28.4% in the period of 2016-2017 4.2 Current situation of Vietnam's export of high-tech products 4.2.1 The scale and growth rate of export of high-tech products In general, we can see the strong growth in exports of high-tech products of Vietnam in the period of 2005-2017 However, Vietnam's exports of high-tech products also focus on a number of key products Some products such as 524, 712 and 718 have very low export value in the 20052017 period, just under US $ 15 million The remaining products have an average growth rate of over 100% / year (positive growth) for the whole research period Some product codes such as 751, 764, 774, 792, 871 have very high average annual growth rate (over 50% / year) showing that with these products, Vietnam has met the needs of the import markets 4.2.2 Export markets of high-tech products Vietnam's export markets of high-tech goods are expanding in the direction of diversification in different continents In the early 2000s, hi-tech exports were mainly in countries in the East Asia- 14 Pacific region, especially in Southeast Asia Exports to East Asia Pacific accounted for 83% of the total value of high-tech exports in 2000, of which ASEAN accounted for nearly 65% However, along with the rise of export turnover of high-tech products, there has been a significant change in export markets Vietnam's export market share of high-tech products in comparison with the world tends to increase significantly in the period 2000-2017 Comparing the average growth rate of Vietnam's export turnover of high-tech products to the world (Vietnam's growth is 31.13%, while the world growth is 5.79%) showing the speed of Vietnam's export growth rate of high-tech products is many times higher than the growth rate of the world Statistics of 15 countries and territories, which were Vietnam's largest import market of high-tech products in 2017, show that these 15 countries all have a value of Vietnam's imports of high-tech products of over US $ 1.3 billion Most of Vietnam's top 15 importers of hightech products grew over 35% during this period, with the exception of Japan and Thailand In the early 2000s, Japan was the largest importer of high-tech products from Vietnam (US $ 317 million in 2005, the highest among the 15 countries in Table 4.12) 4.2.3 Export structure of high-tech products Table 4.22 Vietnam's exports by technology level in the period of 2000-2017 Proportion (%) Product Groups I Raw products II Processed products Natural-resources-based products - Agriculture - Mineral Low-tech products - Fabrics, clothes, footwears - Other products Medium-tech products - Automobiles - Processed products - Mechanical products High-tech products - Electronics and electricity - Other products Total 2000 2010 2013 2015 2017 51,73 30,12 21,15 15,07 14,02 48,27 69,88 78,85 84,93 85,98 6,72 8,92 8,17 7,57 6,42 3,30 4,81 4,50 4,45 3,71 3,43 4,12 3,67 3,12 2,70 31,15 41,01 32,84 35,11 31,88 26,58 26,96 24,25 26,39 23,45 4,57 14,05 8,58 8,72 8,43 4,60 9,23 9,94 9,65 9,79 0,53 0,95 1,19 1,15 1,06 1,12 2,76 3,11 2,47 2,20 2,95 5,53 5,64 6,02 6,53 5,80 10,71 27,90 32,60 37,90 5,48 9,87 26,45 30,87 34,81 0,31 0,84 1,45 1,73 3,09 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 Average proportion 2000-2017 (%) 8,74 21,47 17,09 18,23 15,79 17,57 16,55 21,71 22,75 22,32 22,14 23,05 31,13 30,90 34,34 17,41 Source: Author calculates from database of World Bank, 2019 15 To assess Vietnam's export structure in some major markets, Vietnam's export classification by technology level was also calculated for countries and groups of countries (from Table 4.23 to Table 4.28) The research results show that there is a relative difference between the importing countries of Vietnam While most countries such as the United States, Japan, South Korea, China and ASEAN all reduced their share of imports of raw products during 2000-2017, Germany kept the same share of imports of raw products from Vietnam and even more, there was a slight increase This is also the country with the average export growth rate of raw products reaching a high level (14.04%) (Table 4.24) However, for the high-tech product group, all research markets have shown a sharp increase in the proportion of total value of imported products from Vietnam such as the United States increased from 0.58% to 21.14 %; Germany increased sharply from 1.25% to 37.21%; South Korea increased from 6.2% to 41.98%; especially China increased dramatically from 0.32% to 46.78% (annual average speed reached 61.45%), while in Japan and ASEAN markets, the growth rate was not as strong as that of ASEAN's growth rate The annual average for high-tech is 16.44% High-tech products export to the countries are mainly electrical and electronic products 4.2.4 The competitiveness of high-tech products Currently, Vietnam's high-tech products exports have begun to gain a foothold in the world market Some high-tech products such as mobile phones, computers, electronics and components, etc of Vietnam have been present in many countries in the region and around the world In order to assess the competitiveness of Vietnam's high products, the author of this thesis uses the calculation results of the Revealed Comparative Advantages index (RCA) as an assessment tool Calculation results show that: in 18 codes of products of Vietnam's high-tech products group, in 2016, there were codes (codes: 716, 751, 752, 761, 764, 771 776 and 881) have comparative advantages with RCA index> To evaluate the comparative advantage of Vietnam's exported high-tech products, the thesis has calculated the comparative advantage index of high-tech products of Vietnam and other countries The calculation results show that Vietnam and other countries such as Thailand, China, Mexico and Philippines have relatively similar 16 comparative advantage indexes, that is, these countries compete with each other For high-tech products in the world market, especially the product code 752 with 7/10 countries has a comparative advantage Thus, it can be seen that, although there is a comparative advantage in some key products, Vietnam is also facing fierce competition from regional countries, especially Thailand and China In order to assess the competitiveness of each high-tech product, the thesis uses the "Constant Market Share Model" (CMS) to evaluate the fluctuation of Vietnam's exports of hightech products This model assesses the degree of change in the export value of high-tech products depending on three factors: the market demand of the products itself (demand effect); growth of the whole consumer market (structural impact) and competitiveness of goods exported from Vietnam (Nguyen Bich Thuy, 2015) On the basis of using data collected in the period of 2002-2017, Table 4.32, Table 4.33 and Table 4.34 present the results of the analysis of the CMS model on the factors affecting Vietnam's exports of high-tech products in the periods: 20022009, 2010-2017 and 2002-2017 Table 4.32 Competitiveness in Vietnam's export of CNC products in the period of 2002-2009 Code 524 541 712 716 718 751 752 759 761 764 771 774 776 778 792 871 874 881 Increase / decrease in Demand impact exports (US $ (million US $) million) 11,92 0,19 37,65 9,39 0,38 0,00 424,76 60,63 1,63 0,11 1208,88 0,35 78,18 16,47 133,71 282,56 7,55 52,21 995,86 91,37 257,41 39,11 21,06 1,05 207,69 14,88 280,58 51,03 11,83 3,16 1,72 0,09 59,17 11,75 391,06 15,13 Structural impact (million US $) Competitiveness (million US $) 0,10 6,78 0,00 24,17 0,08 0,74 -9,11 -249,89 38,78 -19,69 11,61 0,07 -7,23 -14,26 -2,67 0,41 -3,11 -24,75 11,63 21,47 0,38 339,96 1,45 1207,80 70,82 101,04 -83,44 924,18 206,69 19,94 200,04 243,81 11,35 1,22 50,54 400,67 Source: Author calculates from figures of the World Bank (2019) 17 In the period 2002-2009, the demand impact for all high-tech products exported to the markets was positive This means that the growth of Vietnam's exports of high-tech products was first due to the growth in demand for high-tech products in the world Some high-tech products have a strong increase in demand such as 759 and 761 product groups These are products with export growth mainly due to the increase in world demand On the other hand, Vietnam's export of hightech products in this period generally had a stronger growth than the world growth, reflecting the high level of competitiveness of high-tech products In addition to the product 761 that has a low level of competitiveness, other products all show very high level of export competitiveness such as products 716, 751, 764, 776, 881 Table 4.33 Competitiveness in Vietnam's export of high-tech products in the period of 2010-2017 Code 524 541 712 716 718 751 752 759 761 764 771 774 776 778 792 871 874 881 Increase / Structural decrease in Demand impact Competitiveness impact exports (US $ (million US $) (million US $) (million US $) million) 3,2 1,0 -5,0 7,2 106,9 8,4 3,2 95,3 -0,2 0,1 -0,2 -0,1 462,4 111,3 -32,9 383,9 9,3 0,2 -0,4 9,5 1247,1 251,9 -1368,4 2363,5 3390,5 29,2 15,9 3345,3 548,7 53,4 274,3 220,9 2155,0 6,8 -23,9 2172,1 48613,0 414,0 155,5 48043,5 825,1 65,8 20,8 738,5 110,8 0,9 0,0 109,9 8860,0 75,3 240,9 8543,9 1398,4 81,1 171,5 1145,8 374,0 3,2 7,0 363,7 3059,8 2,7 5,9 3051,2 395,6 13,3 19,8 362,5 2095,1 63,8 256,3 1774,9 Source: Author calculates from figures of the World Bank (2019 The period of 2010-2017 shows a strong growth in Vietnam's exports of high-tech products, focusing on a number of items such as 764, 776, 752, and 871 The strong growth in this period is still mainly explained by the improvement in product competitiveness, while the demand for products and the structural impact generally have little impact 18 on the growth of Vietnam's high-tech products exports In addition, compared to the period 2002-2009, products 761 and 759 also had a higher level of product competitiveness, of which product 761 had an increase in exports almost entirely due to the increase in its competitiveness ability (Table 4.33) Thus, it can be said that the competitive level of Vietnam's export of high-tech products tends to increase in recent years Table 4.34 Competitiveness in Vietnam's export of high-tech products in the period of 2002-2017 Code 524 541 712 716 718 751 752 759 761 764 771 774 776 778 792 871 874 881 Increase/ Structural Demand impact Competitiveness decrease in exports impact (million US $) (million US $) (US $ million) (million US $) 9,7 0,3 -0,3 9,7 151,1 17,5 5,8 127,7 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,1 1118,5 113,2 5,1 1000,2 10,5 0,2 0,0 10,4 2881,9 0,7 -0,5 2881,8 3561,9 30,8 -10,7 3541,8 585,4 527,8 -82,3 139,9 2141,7 97,5 -48,1 2092,3 51200,6 170,7 -28,1 51058,0 1209,6 73,1 22,4 1114,1 115,6 2,0 -0,2 113,9 9332,6 27,8 9,3 9295,6 1869,2 95,3 20,3 1753,5 391,3 5,9 -2,9 388,3 3077,1 0,2 0,9 3076,0 468,9 21,9 1,9 445,1 2492,9 28,3 -32,8 2497,4 Source: Author calculates from figures of the World Bank (2019) Thus, Vietnam's export growth of high-tech products during 2002-2017 has achieved important results Major high-tech products with strong export growth in recent years include 764, 776,752, 871, 881 and 751 This shows that the export growth rate of high-tech products for these products is much higher than the average export growth rate of similar products in the world 19 4.3 Factors affecting Vietnam's export of high-tech products Regression results using OLS, FEM and REM estimation methods with 648 observations are shown in Table 4.35 Table 4.36 The REM model of the impact of factors on the export value of high-tech products of Vietnam Independent variables Intercept Ln(PGDPit*PGDPjt) Ln(IPRit*IPRjt) LnERit LnINFit LnDISijt LnEDISijt LnINSit FTAijt BORij Adjusted R square ( R ) F-statistics (F) Estimated REM Regression t-Test coefficient -51,915 -10,08*** 0,418 1,49 1,973 1,73* 11,115 8,73*** -0,612 -5,04*** -0,977 -3,65*** 0,212 2,08** -0,528 -0,39 0,453 2,96*** 0,785 3,45*** 0,465 507,6 Note: *, **, ***: Corresponds to significance level less than 10%, 5%, 1%; Values in parentheses ( ) is the z-test Source: Summary of the author from Stata software From the results of the gravity model, there are factors affecting Vietnam's exports of high-tech products, namely Vietnam's GDP and importing countries, intellectual property rights index of Vietnam and importing countries, exchange rates, inflation, geographical distance between Vietnam and the importing countries, economic gap between the two countries, dummy variables for borders and members of FTAs The results of the analysis have shown the positive factors, the negative factors and the results also show that the trend of the factors is quite consistent with the expectations that the hypotheses have made 4.4 Evaluation of Vietnam's high-tech products export 4.4.1 Advantages 4.4.2 Disadvantages - Vietnam's export of products in general and the export of hightech products in particular mainly depend on foreign-invested enterprises (the proportion accounts for 71.5% of the total export value) 20 - The export of high-tech products in recent years has focused on a number of main items, including electrical and electronic products - Export of high-tech products to some major markets such as EU27, the USA, and Japan is still low compared with the potential and export capacity - High-tech exports are relatively dependent on a number of markets such as China, the United States, and South Korea In these three countries alone, the high-tech exports account for 38.8% of Vietnam's total high-tech export value in 2017 - Although the export of high-tech products has increased in comparative advantage (RCA index) in the period of 2000-2017, among the studied high-tech products, up to 11/18 products did not have the comparative advantage - Trade diversion may occur in some markets for some products - Although the Products 716, 761, 776, 871, and 881 have comparative advantages, they currently have not been oriented to export to EU27 (RO factor

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