❈♦♥t❡♥ts ■ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝✐♥❣ ❆❧❣♦r✐t❤♠✐❝ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ✶ ✶ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ❇♦♦❦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸ ✶✳✶ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ t♦ ◗✉❛♥t❙t❛rt ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✳✷ ❲❤❛t ✐s t❤✐s ❇♦♦❦❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸ ✶✳✸ ❲❤♦ ✐s t❤✐s ❇♦♦❦ ❋♦r❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸ ✶✳✹ ❲❤❛t ❛r❡ t❤❡ Pr❡r❡q✉✐s✐t❡s❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸ ✶✳✺ ❙♦❢t✇❛r❡✴❍❛r❞✇❛r❡ ❘❡q✉✐r❡♠❡♥ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹ ✶✳✻ ❇♦♦❦ ❙tr✉❝t✉r❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹ ✶✳✼ ❲❤❛t t❤❡ ❇♦♦❦ ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ❈♦✈❡r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺ ✶✳✽ ❲❤❡r❡ t♦ ●❡t ❍❡❧♣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺ ✷ ❲❤❛t ■s ❆❧❣♦r✐t❤♠✐❝ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✳✶ ❖✈❡r✈✐❡✇ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸ ✼ ✼ ✷✳✶✳✶ ❆❞✈❛♥t❛❣❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼ ✷✳✶✳✷ ❉✐s❛❞✈❛♥t❛❣❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽ ✷✳✷ ❙❝✐❡♥t✐✜❝ ▼❡t❤♦❞ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾ ✷✳✸ ❲❤② P②t❤♦♥❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾ ✷✳✹ ❈❛♥ ❘❡t❛✐❧ ❚r❛❞❡rs ❙t✐❧❧ ❈♦♠♣❡t❡❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵ ✷✳✹✳✶ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ❆❞✈❛♥t❛❣❡s ✷✳✹✳✷ ❘✐s❦ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶ ✷✳✹✳✸ ■♥✈❡st♦r ❘❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶ ✷✳✹✳✹ ❚❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶ ■■ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ❙②st❡♠s ✶✸ ✸ ❙✉❝❝❡ss❢✉❧ ❇❛❝❦t❡st✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺ ✸✳✶ ❲❤② ❇❛❝❦t❡st ❙tr❛t❡❣✐❡s❄ ✸✳✷ ❇❛❝❦t❡st✐♥❣ ❇✐❛s❡s ✸✳✸ ✸✳✹ ✸✳✺ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺ ✶✻ ✸✳✷✳✶ ❖♣t✐♠✐s❛t✐♦♥ ❇✐❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻ ✸✳✷✳✷ ▲♦♦❦✲❆❤❡❛❞ ❇✐❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻ ✸✳✷✳✸ ❙✉r✈✐✈♦rs❤✐♣ ❇✐❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼ ✸✳✷✳✹ ❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❇✐❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼ ❊①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ■ss✉❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽ ✸✳✸✳✶ ❖r❞❡r ❚②♣❡s ✶✽ ✸✳✸✳✷ Pr✐❝❡ ❈♦♥s♦❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ✸✳✸✳✸ ❋♦r❡① ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❊❈◆s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾ ✸✳✸✳✹ ❙❤♦rt✐♥❣ ❈♦♥str❛✐♥ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾ ❚r❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥ ❈♦sts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾ ✸✳✹✳✶ ❈♦♠♠✐ss✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾ ✸✳✹✳✷ ❙❧✐♣♣❛❣❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾ ✸✳✹✳✸ ▼❛r❦❡t ■♠♣❛❝t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵ ❇❛❝❦t❡st✐♥❣ ✈s ❘❡❛❧✐t② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵ ✹ ❆✉t♦♠❛t❡❞ ❊①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶ ✹✳✶ ❇❛❝❦t❡st✐♥❣ P❧❛t❢♦r♠s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶ ✷✶ ✷ ✹✳✷ ✹✳✶✳✶ Pr♦❣r❛♠♠✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✷ ✹✳✶✳✷ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ❚♦♦❧s ✷✷ ✹✳✶✳✸ ❊✈❡♥t✲❉r✐✈❡♥ ❇❛❝❦t❡st✐♥❣ ✹✳✶✳✹ ▲❛t❡♥❝② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✸ ✹✳✶✳✺ ▲❛♥❣✉❛❣❡ ❈❤♦✐❝❡s ✷✸ ✹✳✶✳✻ ■♥t❡❣r❛t❡❞ ❉❡✈❡❧♦♣♠❡♥t ❊♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✹ ❈♦❧♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✻ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✸ ✹✳✷✳✶ ❍♦♠❡ ❉❡s❦t♦♣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✻ ✹✳✷✳✷ ❱P❙ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✼ ✹✳✷✳✸ ❊①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✷✼ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺ ❙♦✉r❝✐♥❣ ❙tr❛t❡❣② ■❞❡❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✾ ✺✳✶ ■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ ❨♦✉r ❖✇♥ P❡rs♦♥❛❧ Pr❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s ❢♦r ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✾ ✺✳✷ ❙♦✉r❝✐♥❣ ❆❧❣♦r✐t❤♠✐❝ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ■❞❡❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✵ ✺✳✷✳✶ ❚❡①t❜♦♦❦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✵ ✺✳✷✳✷ ❚❤❡ ■♥t❡r♥❡t ✸✶ ✺✳✷✳✸ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ▲✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ ✺✳✷✳✹ ■♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✸ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✸ ✺✳✸ ❊✈❛❧✉❛t✐♥❣ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ❙tr❛t❡❣✐❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✹ ✺✳✹ ❖❜t❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❍✐st♦r✐❝❛❧ ❉❛t❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✺ ■■■ ❉❛t❛ P❧❛t❢♦r♠ ❉❡✈❡❧♦♣♠❡♥t ✸✾ ✻ ❙♦❢t✇❛r❡ ■♥st❛❧❧❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✶ ✻✳✶ ✻✳✷ ❖♣❡r❛t✐♥❣ ❙②st❡♠ ❈❤♦✐❝❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✶ ✻✳✶✳✶ ▼✐❝r♦s♦❢t ❲✐♥❞♦✇s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✶ ✻✳✶✳✷ ▼❛❝ ❖❙❳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✶ ✻✳✶✳✸ ▲✐♥✉① ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✷ ■♥st❛❧❧✐♥❣ ❛ P②t❤♦♥ ❊♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t ♦♥ ❯❜✉♥t✉ ▲✐♥✉① ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✷ ✻✳✷✳✶ P②t❤♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✳✷✳✷ ◆✉♠P②✱ ❙❝✐P② ❛♥❞ P❛♥❞❛s ✻✳✷✳✸ ❙t❛ts♠♦❞❡❧s ❛♥❞ ❙❝✐❦✐t✲▲❡❛r♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✹ ✻✳✷✳✹ P②◗t✱ ■P②t❤♦♥ ❛♥❞ ▼❛t♣❧♦t❧✐❜ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✹ ✻✳✷✳✺ ■❜P② ❛♥❞ ❚r❛❞❡r ❲♦r❦st❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✺ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✸ ✹✸ ✼ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❉❛t❛ ❙t♦r❛❣❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✼ ✼✳✶ ❙❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s ▼❛st❡r ❉❛t❛❜❛s❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✳✷ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❉❛t❛s❡ts ✼✳✸ ❙t♦r❛❣❡ ❋♦r♠❛ts ✹✼ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✽ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✽ ✼✳✸✳✶ ❋❧❛t✲❋✐❧❡ ❙t♦r❛❣❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✽ ✼✳✸✳✷ ❉♦❝✉♠❡♥t ❙t♦r❡s✴◆♦❙◗▲ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✾ ✼✳✸✳✸ ❘❡❧❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❉❛t❛❜❛s❡ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ❙②st❡♠s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✾ ✼✳✹ ❍✐st♦r✐❝❛❧ ❉❛t❛ ❙tr✉❝t✉r❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✾ ✼✳✺ ❉❛t❛ ❆❝❝✉r❛❝② ❊✈❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✵ ✼✳✻ ❆✉t♦♠❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✶ ✼✳✼ ❉❛t❛ ❆✈❛✐❧❛❜✐❧✐t② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✶ ✼✳✽ ▼②❙◗▲ ❢♦r ❙❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s ▼❛st❡rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✶ ✼✳✾ ✼✳✽✳✶ ■♥st❛❧❧✐♥❣ ▼②❙◗▲ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✳✽✳✷ ❈♦♥✜❣✉r✐♥❣ ▼②❙◗▲ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✶ ✺✶ ✼✳✽✳✸ ❙❝❤❡♠❛ ❉❡s✐❣♥ ❢♦r ❊❖❉ ❊q✉✐t✐❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✷ ✼✳✽✳✹ ❈♦♥♥❡❝t✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ❉❛t❛❜❛s❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✹ ✼✳✽✳✺ ❯s✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❖❜❥❡❝t✲❘❡❧❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ▼❛♣♣❡r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✹ ❘❡tr✐❡✈✐♥❣ ❉❛t❛ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❙❡❝✉r✐t✐❡s ▼❛st❡r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✾ ✽ Pr♦❝❡ss✐♥❣ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❉❛t❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✶ ✽✳✶ ▼❛r❦❡t ❛♥❞ ■♥str✉♠❡♥t ❈❧❛ss✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✶ ✸ ✽✳✷ ✽✳✸ ✽✳✹ ✽✳✺ ✽✳✶✳✶ ▼❛r❦❡ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✳✶✳✷ ■♥str✉♠❡♥ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✶ ✽✳✶✳✸ ❋✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❉❛t❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✷ ✽✳✶✳✹ ❯♥str✉❝t✉r❡❞ ❉❛t❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✷ ❋r❡q✉❡♥❝② ♦❢ ❉❛t❛ ✻✶ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✸ ✽✳✷✳✶ ❲❡❡❦❧② ❛♥❞ ▼♦♥t❤❧② ❉❛t❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✸ ✽✳✷✳✷ ❉❛✐❧② ❉❛t❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✸ ✽✳✷✳✸ ■♥tr❛❞❛② ❇❛rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✸ ✽✳✷✳✹ ❚✐❝❦ ❛♥❞ ❖r❞❡r ❇♦♦❦ ❉❛t❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✸ ❙♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ❉❛t❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✹ ✽✳✸✳✶ ❋r❡❡ ❙♦✉r❝❡s ✻✹ ✽✳✸✳✷ ❈♦♠♠❡r❝✐❛❧ ❙♦✉r❝❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✺ ❖❜t❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❉❛t❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✻ ✽✳✹✳✶ ❨❛❤♦♦ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ P❛♥❞❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✻ ✽✳✹✳✷ ◗✉❛♥❞❧ ❛♥❞ P❛♥❞❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✼ ✽✳✹✳✸ ❉❚◆ ■◗❋❡❡❞ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✷ ❈❧❡❛♥✐♥❣ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❉❛t❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✹ ✽✳✺✳✶ ❉❛t❛ ◗✉❛❧✐t② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✹ ✽✳✺✳✷ ❈♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s ❋✉t✉r❡s ❈♦♥tr❛❝ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✹ ■❱ ▼♦❞❡❧❧✐♥❣ ✼✾ ✾ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ▲❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✶ ✾✳✶ ✾✳✷ ❲❤❛t ✐s ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ▲❡❛r♥✐♥❣❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✶ ✾✳✶✳✶ Pr❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ■♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✶ ✾✳✶✳✷ P❛r❛♠❡tr✐❝ ❛♥❞ ◆♦♥✲P❛r❛♠❡tr✐❝ ▼♦❞❡❧s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✷ ✾✳✶✳✸ ❙✉♣❡r✈✐s❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❯♥s✉♣❡r✈✐s❡❞ ▲❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ❚❡❝❤♥✐q✉❡s ✽✸ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✸ ✾✳✷✳✶ ❘❡❣r❡ss✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✸ ✾✳✷✳✷ ❈❧❛ss✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ✾✳✷✳✸ ❚✐♠❡ ❙❡r✐❡s ▼♦❞❡❧s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✹ ✽✹ ✶✵ ❚✐♠❡ ❙❡r✐❡s ❆♥❛❧②s✐s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✼ ✶✵✳✶ ❚❡st✐♥❣ ❢♦r ▼❡❛♥ ❘❡✈❡rs✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✳✶✳✶ ❆✉❣♠❡♥t❡❞ ❉✐❝❦❡②✲❋✉❧❧❡r ✭❆❉❋✮ ❚❡st ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✼ ✽✽ ✶✵✳✷ ❚❡st✐♥❣ ❢♦r ❙t❛t✐♦♥❛r✐t② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✾ ✶✵✳✷✳✶ ❍✉rst ❊①♣♦♥❡♥t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✾ ✶✵✳✸ ❈♦✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶ ✶✵✳✸✳✶ ❈♦✐♥t❡❣r❛t❡❞ ❆✉❣♠❡♥t❡❞ ❉✐❝❦❡②✲❋✉❧❧❡r ❚❡st ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶ ✶✵✳✹ ❲❤② ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ❚❡st✐♥❣❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✻ ✶✶ ❋♦r❡❝❛st✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✼ ✶✶✳✶ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❋♦r❡❝❛st✐♥❣ ❆❝❝✉r❛❝② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✼ ✶✶✳✶✳✶ ❍✐t ❘❛t❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✼ ✶✶✳✶✳✷ ❈♦♥❢✉s✐♦♥ ▼❛tr✐① ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✽ ✶✶✳✷ ❋❛❝t♦r ❈❤♦✐❝❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✽ ✶✶✳✷✳✶ ▲❛❣❣❡❞ Pr✐❝❡ ❋❛❝t♦rs ❛♥❞ ❱♦❧✉♠❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✽ ✶✶✳✷✳✷ ❊①t❡r♥❛❧ ❋❛❝t♦rs ✾✾ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✳✸ ❈❧❛ss✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✾ ✶✶✳✸✳✶ ▲♦❣✐st✐❝ ❘❡❣r❡ss✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✾ ✶✶✳✸✳✷ ❉✐s❝r✐♠✐♥❛♥t ❆♥❛❧②s✐s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✳✸✳✸ ❙✉♣♣♦rt ❱❡❝t♦r ▼❛❝❤✐♥❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✳✸✳✹ ❉❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ❚r❡❡s ❛♥❞ ❘❛♥❞♦♠ ❋♦r❡sts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✵ ✶✵✵ ✶✵✶ ✶✶✳✸✳✺ Pr✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❈♦♠♣♦♥❡♥ts ❆♥❛❧②s✐s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✶ ✶✶✳✸✳✻ ❲❤✐❝❤ ❋♦r❡❝❛st❡r❄ ✶✵✶ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹ ✶✶✳✹ ❋♦r❡❝❛st✐♥❣ ❙t♦❝❦ ■♥❞❡① ▼♦✈❡♠❡♥t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✸ ✶✶✳✹✳✶ P②t❤♦♥ ■♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❛t✐♦♥s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✸ ✶✶✳✹✳✷ ❘❡s✉❧ts ✶✵✻ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ❱ P❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❘✐s❦ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ✶✵✼ ✶✷ P❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ▼❡❛s✉r❡♠❡♥t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✾ ✶✷✳✶ ❚r❛❞❡ ❆♥❛❧②s✐s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✵ ✶✷✳✶✳✶ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ❙t❛t✐st✐❝s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✵ ✶✷✳✷ ❙tr❛t❡❣② ❛♥❞ P♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❆♥❛❧②s✐s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✶ ✶✷✳✷✳✶ ❘❡t✉r♥s ❆♥❛❧②s✐s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✶ ✶✷✳✷✳✷ ❘✐s❦✴❘❡✇❛r❞ ❆♥❛❧②s✐s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✷ ✶✷✳✷✳✸ ❉r❛✇❞♦✇♥ ❆♥❛❧②s✐s ✶✶✼ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸ ❘✐s❦ ❛♥❞ ▼♦♥❡② ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✾ ✶✸✳✶ ❙♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ❘✐s❦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✾ ✶✸✳✶✳✶ ❙tr❛t❡❣② ❘✐s❦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✾ ✶✸✳✶✳✷ P♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❘✐s❦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✵ ✶✸✳✶✳✸ ❈♦✉♥t❡r♣❛rt② ❘✐s❦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✵ ✶✸✳✶✳✹ ❖♣❡r❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❘✐s❦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✵ ✶✸✳✷ ▼♦♥❡② ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✶ ✶✸✳✷✳✶ ❑❡❧❧② ❈r✐t❡r✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✶ ✶✸✳✸ ❘✐s❦ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✸ ✶✸✳✸✳✶ ❱❛❧✉❡✲❛t✲❘✐s❦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✸ ✶✸✳✹ ❆❞✈❛♥t❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❉✐s❛❞✈❛♥t❛❣❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ❱■ ❆✉t♦♠❛t❡❞ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ✶✷✹ ✶✷✼ ✶✹ ❊✈❡♥t✲❉r✐✈❡♥ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ❊♥❣✐♥❡ ■♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✾ ✶✹✳✶ ❊✈❡♥t✲❉r✐✈❡♥ ❙♦❢t✇❛r❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✾ ✶✹✳✶✳✶ ❲❤② ❆♥ ❊✈❡♥t✲❉r✐✈❡♥ ❇❛❝❦t❡st❡r❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✵ ✶✹✳✷ ❈♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t ❖❜❥❡❝ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✵ ✶✹✳✷✳✶ ❊✈❡♥ts ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✶ ✶✹✳✷✳✷ ❉❛t❛ ❍❛♥❞❧❡r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✹ ✶✹✳✷✳✸ ❙tr❛t❡❣② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✵ ✶✹✳✷✳✹ P♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✷ ✶✹✳✷✳✺ ❊①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ ❍❛♥❞❧❡r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✵ ✶✹✳✷✳✻ ❇❛❝❦t❡st ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✷ ✶✹✳✸ ❊✈❡♥t✲❉r✐✈❡♥ ❊①❡❝✉t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✺ ✶✺ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ❙tr❛t❡❣② ■♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✸ ✶✺✳✶ ▼♦✈✐♥❣ ❆✈❡r❛❣❡ ❈r♦ss♦✈❡r ❙tr❛t❡❣② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✸ ✶✺✳✷ ❙✫P✺✵✵ ❋♦r❡❝❛st✐♥❣ ❚r❛❞❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✽ ✶✺✳✸ ▼❡❛♥✲❘❡✈❡rt✐♥❣ ❊q✉✐t② P❛✐rs ❚r❛❞❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✷ ✶✺✳✹ P❧♦tt✐♥❣ P❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✾ ✶✻ ❙tr❛t❡❣② ❖♣t✐♠✐s❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✶ ✶✻✳✶ P❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❖♣t✐♠✐s❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✳✶✳✶ ❲❤✐❝❤ P❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t♦ ❖♣t✐♠✐s❡❄ ✶✽✶ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✶ ✶✻✳✶✳✷ ❖♣t✐♠✐s❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❊①♣❡♥s✐✈❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✷ ✶✻✳✶✳✸ ❖✈❡r✜tt✐♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✷ ✶✻✳✷ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✸ ✶✻✳✷✳✶ ❈r♦ss ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✳✷✳✷ ●r✐❞ ❙❡❛r❝❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✳✸ ❖♣t✐♠✐s✐♥❣ ❙tr❛t❡❣✐❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✸ ✶✽✾ ✶✾✶ ✺ ✶✻✳✸✳✶ ■♥tr❛❞❛② ▼❡❛♥ ❘❡✈❡rt✐♥❣ P❛✐rs ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾✶ ✶✻✳✸✳✷ P❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❆❞❥✉st♠❡♥t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾✶ ✶✻✳✸✳✸ ❱✐s✉❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥ ✶✾✹ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻ ▲✐♠✐t ♦❢ ▲✐❛❜✐❧✐t②✴❉✐s❝❧❛✐♠❡r ♦❢ ❲❛rr❛♥t② ❲❤✐❧❡ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦r ❤❛s ✉s❡❞ t❤❡✐r ❜❡st ❡✛♦rts ✐♥ ♣r❡♣❛r✐♥❣ t❤✐s ❜♦♦❦✱ t❤❡② ♠❛❦❡ ♥♦ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐♦♥s ♦r ✇❛rr❛♥t✐❡s ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ r❡s♣❡❝t t♦ t❤❡ ❛❝❝✉r❛❝② ♦r ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡♥❡ss ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♥t❡♥ts ♦❢ t❤✐s ❜♦♦❦ ❛♥❞ s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❧❧② ❞✐s❝❧❛✐♠ ❛♥② ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ✇❛rr❛♥t✐❡s ♦❢ ♠❡r❝❤❛♥t❛❜✐❧✐t② ♦r ✜t♥❡ss ❢♦r ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ♣✉r♣♦s❡✳ ■t ✐s s♦❧❞ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦r ✐s ♥♦t ❡♥❣❛❣❡❞ ✐♥ r❡♥❞❡r✐♥❣ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ s❡r✈✐❝❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❛✉t❤♦r s❤❛❧❧ ♥♦t ❜❡ ❧✐❛❜❧❡ ❢♦r ❞❛♠❛❣❡s ❛r✐s✐♥❣ ❤❡r❡❢r♦♠✳ ■❢ ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ ❛❞✈✐❝❡ ♦r ♦t❤❡r ❡①♣❡rt ❛ss✐st❛♥❝❡ ✐s r❡q✉✐r❡❞✱ t❤❡ s❡r✈✐❝❡s ♦❢ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❡t❡♥t ♣r♦❢❡ss✐♦♥❛❧ s❤♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ s♦✉❣❤t✳ ✐ ✐✐ P❛rt ■ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝✐♥❣ ❆❧❣♦r✐t❤♠✐❝ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ✶ ✶✽✺ shrinking=True, tol=0.001, verbose=False) ), ("RF", RandomForestClassifier( n_estimators=1000, criterion=’gini’, max_depth=None, min_samples_split=2, min_samples_leaf=1, max_features=’auto’, bootstrap=True, oob_score=False, n_jobs=1, random_state=None, verbose=0) )] # Iterate through the models for m in models: # Train each of the models on the training set m[1].fit(X_train, y_train) # Make an array of predictions on the test set pred = m[1].predict(X_test) # Output the hit-rate and the confusion matrix for each model print("%s:\n%0.3f" % (m[0], m[1].score(X_test, y_test))) print("%s\n" % confusion_matrix(pred, y_test)) ◆♦t✐❝❡ t❤❛t ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ♣✐❝❦❡❞ t❤❡ r❛t✐♦ ♦❢ t❤❡ tr❛✐♥✐♥❣ s❡t t♦ ❜❡ ✽✵✪ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛✱ ❧❡❛✈✐♥❣ t❤❡ t❡st✐♥❣ ❞❛t❛ ✇✐t❤ ♦♥❧② ✷✵✪✳ ■♥ ❛❞❞✐t✐♦♥ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❡❞ ❛ s❛♠♣❧✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤✐♥ t❤❡ s❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❞❛t❛✳ random_state t♦ r❛♥❞♦♠✐s❡ t❤❡ ❚❤✐s ♠❡❛♥s t❤❛t t❤❡ ❞❛t❛ ✐s ♥♦t s❡q✉❡♥t✐❛❧❧② ❞✐✈✐❞❡❞ ❝❤r♦♥♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧❧②✱ ❜✉t r❛t❤❡r ✐s s❛♠♣❧❡❞ r❛♥❞♦♠❧②✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝r♦ss✲✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ♦♥ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛r❡ ❛s ❢♦❧❧♦✇s ✭②♦✉s ✇✐❧❧ ❧✐❦❡❧② ❛♣♣❡❛r s❧✐❣❤t❧② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❞✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❛t✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜tt✐♥❣ ♣r♦❝❡❞✉r❡✮✿ Hit Rates/Confusion Matrices: LR: 0.511 [[ 70 70] [419 441]] LDA: 0.513 [[ 69 67] [420 444]] QDA: 0.503 [[ 83 91] [406 420]] LSVC: 0.513 [[ 69 67] [420 444]] RSVM: 0.506 [[ 13] [481 498]] ✶✽✻ RF: 0.490 [[200 221] [289 290]] ■t ❝❛♥ ❜❡ s❡❡♥ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❤✐t r❛t❡s ❛r❡ s✉❜st❛♥t✐❛❧❧② ❧♦✇❡r t❤❛♥ t❤♦s❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❛❢♦r❡♠❡♥✲ t✐♦♥❡❞ ❢♦r❡❝❛st✐♥❣ ❝❤❛♣t❡r✳ ❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ❧✐❦❡❧② ❝♦♥❝❧✉❞❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ tr❛✐♥✐♥❣✴t❡st s♣❧✐t ❧❡❛❞ t♦ ❛♥ ♦✈❡r✲♦♣t✐♠✐st✐❝ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐✈❡ ❝❛♣❛❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝❧❛ss✐✜❡r✳ ❚❤❡ ♥❡①t st❡♣ ✐s t♦ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ t✐♠❡s ❛ ❝r♦ss✲✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♣❡r❢♦r♠❡❞ ✐♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ♠✐♥✐♠✐s❡ ❛♥② ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ♦✈❡r✜tt✐♥❣✳ ❋♦r t❤✐s ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ✉s❡ ❦✲❢♦❧❞ ❝r♦ss ✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥✳ ❑✲❋♦❧❞ ❈r♦ss ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ❘❛t❤❡r t❤❛♥ ♣❛rt✐t✐♦♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ s❡t ✐♥t♦ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ tr❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ t❡st s❡t✱ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ✉s❡ ❦✲❢♦❧❞ ❝r♦ss ✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ t♦ r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ♣❛rt✐t✐♦♥ t❤❡ t❤❡ s❡t ✐♥t♦ ✭♦❢ ✇❤✐❝❤ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ k ✮✱ ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ k k ❡q✉❛❧❧② s✐③❡❞ s✉❜s❛♠♣❧❡s✳ ❋♦r ❡❛❝❤ ✐t❡r❛t✐♦♥ s✉❜s❛♠♣❧❡s ✐s r❡t❛✐♥❡❞ ❛s ❛ t❡st s❡t✱ ✇❤✐❧❡ t❤❡ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ k − s✉❜s❛♠♣❧❡s t♦❣❡t❤❡r ❢♦r♠ ❛ tr❛✐♥✐♥❣ s❡t✳ ❆ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ k ❢♦❧❞s ❛♥❞ ✐ts ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ❡✈❛❧✉❛t❡❞ ♦♥ ✐ts s♣❡❝✐✜❝ k ✲t❤ t❡st s❡t✳ ✐s t❤❡♥ tr❛✐♥❡❞ ♦♥ ❡❛❝❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❚❤❡ ♣✉r♣♦s❡ ♦❢ t❤✐s ✐s t♦ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐♥t♦ ❛♥ ❡♠s❡♠❜❧❡ ❜② ♠❡❛♥s ♦❢ ❛✈❡r❛❣✐♥❣ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥ ✭♦r ♦t❤❡r✇✐s❡✮ t♦ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡ ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❜❡♥❡✜t ♦❢ ✉s✐♥❣ ❦✲❢♦❧❞ ❝r♦ss ✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ✐s t❤❛t t❤❡ ❡✈❡r② ♣r❡❞✐❝t♦r ✇✐t❤✐♥ t❤❡ ♦r✐❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❛t❛ s❡t ✐s ✉s❡❞ ❜♦t❤ ❢♦r tr❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ t❡st✐♥❣ ♦♥❧② ♦♥❝❡✳ ❚❤✐s ♠♦t✐✈❛t❡s ❛ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ❛s t♦ ❤♦✇ t♦ ❝❤♦♦s❡ k = 10 ❲❡ ✇✐❧❧ ♥♦✇ ♠❛❦❡ ✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❦✲❢♦❧❞ ❝r♦ss ✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ♦❜❥❡❝t✳ ❝♦♣② ♦❢ k✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ♥♦✇ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✦ ●❡♥❡r❛❧❧②✱ ✐s ✉s❡❞ ❜✉t ♦♥❡ ❝❛♥ ❛❧s♦ ♣❡r❢♦r♠ ❛♥♦t❤❡r ❛♥❛❧②s✐s t♦ ❝❤♦♦s❡ ❛♥ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ train_test_split.py cross_validation k✳ ♠♦❞✉❧❡ ♦❢ ❙❝✐❦✐t✲▲❡❛r♥ t♦ ♦❜t❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❲❡ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ ✜❧❡ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ k_fold_cross_val.py✱ KFold ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ❛ ❛♥❞ ♠♦❞✐❢② t❤❡ ✐♠♣♦rts ❜② ❛❞❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❧✐♥❡✿ #!/usr/bin/python # -*- coding: utf-8 -*# k_fold_cross_val.py from future import print_function import datetime import pandas as pd import sklearn from sklearn import cross_validation from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix from sklearn.svm import SVC from create_lagged_series import create_lagged_series ❲❡ t❤❡♥ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ♠❛❦❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s t❤❡ main ♠❡t❤♦❞ ❛♥❞ r❡♣❧❛❝✐♥❣ ✐t ✇✐t❤ ❛♥ ✐♥st❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❜② r❡♠♦✈✐♥❣ t❤❡ KFold✳ train_test_split ■t t❛❦❡s ✜✈❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✳ ❚❤❡ ✜rst ✐st❤❡ ❧❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛s❡t✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ ✶✷✺✵ ❞❛②s✳ ❚❤❡ s❡❝♦♥❞ ✈❛❧✉❡ ✐s r❡♣r❡s❡♥t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❢♦❧❞s✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ ✐s ✶✵✳ ❚❤❡ t❤✐r❞ ✈❛❧✉❡ ✐s ❤❛✈❡ s❡t t♦ False✳ indices✱ K ✇❤✐❝❤ ■ ❚❤✐s ♠❡❛♥s t❤❛t t❤❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧ ✐♥❞❡① ✈❛❧✉❡s ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ ❢♦r t❤❡ ❛rr❛②s r❡t✉r♥❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ✐t❡r❛t♦r✳ ❚❤❡ ❢♦✉rt❤ ❛♥❞ ✜❢t❤ ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ r❛♥❞♦♠✐s❡ t❤❡ ♦r❞❡r ♦❢ t❤❡ s❛♠♣❧❡s✳ ❆s ❜❡❢♦r❡ ✐♥ forecast.py ❛♥❞ train_test_split.py ✇❡ ♦❜t❛✐♥ t❤❡ ❧❛❣❣❡❞ s❡r✐❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❙✫P✺✵✵✳ ❲❡ t❤❡♥ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ s❡t ♦❢ ✈❡❝t♦rs ♦❢ ♣r❡❞✐❝t♦rs ✭X ✮ ❛♥❞ r❡s♣♦♥s❡s ✭y ✮✳ ❲❡ t❤❡♥ ✉t✐❧✐s❡ t❤❡ KFold ♦❜❥❡❝t ❛♥❞ ✐t❡r❛t❡ ♦✈❡r ✐t✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ ❡❛❝❤ ✐t❡r❛t✐♦♥ ✇❡ ❝r❡❛t❡ t❤❡ tr❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ t❡st✐♥❣ s❡ts ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ X ❛♥❞ y ✈❡❝t♦rs✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❛r❡ t❤❡♥ ❢❡❞ ✐♥t♦ ❛ r❛❞✐❛❧ s✉♣♣♦rt ✈❡❝t♦r ♠❛❝❤✐♥❡ ✇✐t❤ ✐❞❡♥t✐❝❛❧ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t♦ t❤❡ ❛❢♦r❡♠❡♥t✐♦♥❡❞ ✜❧❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐s ✜t✳ ❋✐♥❛❧❧② t❤❡ ❤✐t r❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥❢✉s✐♦♥ ♠❛tr✐① ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ✐♥st❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❙❱▼ ✐s ♦✉t♣✉t✳ ✶✽✼ # k_fold_cross_val.py if name == " main ": # Create a lagged series of the S&P500 US stock market index snpret = create_lagged_series( "^GSPC", datetime.datetime(2001,1,10), datetime.datetime(2005,12,31), lags=5 ) # # X y Use the prior two days of returns as predictor values, with direction as the response = snpret[["Lag1","Lag2"]] = snpret["Direction"] # Create a k-fold cross validation object kf = cross_validation.KFold( len(snpret), n_folds=10, indices=False, shuffle=True, random_state=42 ) # Use the kf object to create index arrays that # state which elements have been retained for training # and which elements have beenr retained for testing # for each k-element iteration for train_index, test_index in kf: X_train = X.ix[X.index[train_index]] X_test = X.ix[X.index[test_index]] y_train = y.ix[y.index[train_index]] y_test = y.ix[y.index[test_index]] # In this instance only use the # Radial Support Vector Machine (SVM) print("Hit Rate/Confusion Matrix:") model = SVC( C=1000000.0, cache_size=200, class_weight=None, coef0=0.0, degree=3, gamma=0.0001, kernel=’rbf’, max_iter=-1, probability=False, random_state=None, shrinking=True, tol=0.001, verbose=False ) # Train the model on the retained training data model.fit(X_train, y_train) # Make an array of predictions on the test set pred = model.predict(X_test) # Output the hit-rate and the confusion matrix for each model print("%0.3f" % model.score(X_test, y_test)) print("%s\n" % confusion_matrix(pred, y_test)) ❚❤❡ ♦✉t♣✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦❞❡ ✐s ❛s ❢♦❧❧♦✇s✿ Hit Rate/Confusion Matrix: 0.528 [[11 10] [49 55]] ✶✽✽ Hit Rate/Confusion Matrix: 0.400 [[ 5] [70 48]] Hit Rate/Confusion Matrix: 0.528 [[ 8] [51 58]] Hit Rate/Confusion Matrix: 0.536 [[ 3] [55 61]] Hit Rate/Confusion Matrix: 0.512 [[ 5] [56 57]] Hit Rate/Confusion Matrix: 0.480 [[11 11] [54 49]] Hit Rate/Confusion Matrix: 0.608 [[12 13] [36 64]] Hit Rate/Confusion Matrix: 0.440 [[ 17] [53 47]] Hit Rate/Confusion Matrix: 0.560 [[10 9] [46 60]] Hit Rate/Confusion Matrix: 0.528 [[ 11] [48 57]] ■t ✐s t❤❡ ❝❧❡❛r t❤❛t t❤❡ ❤✐t r❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥❢✉s✐♦♥ ♠❛tr✐❝❡s ✈❛r② ❞r❛♠❛t✐❝❛❧❧② ❛❝r♦ss t❤❡ ✈❛r✐♦✉s ❢♦❧❞s✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ✐♥❞✐❝❛t✐✈❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐s ♣r♦♥❡ t♦ ♦✈❡r✜tt✐♥❣✱ ♦♥ t❤✐s ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❞❛t❛s❡t✳ ❆ r❡♠❡❞② ❢♦r t❤✐s ✐s t♦ ✉s❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t❧② ♠♦r❡ ❞❛t❛✱ ❡✐t❤❡r ❛t ❛ ❤✐❣❤❡r ❢r❡q✉❡♥❝② ♦r ♦✈❡r ❛ ❧♦♥❣❡r ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥✳ ■♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ ✉t✐❧✐s❡ t❤✐s ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐♥ ❛ tr❛❞✐♥❣ strr❛t❡❣② ✐t ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ♥❡❝❡ss❛r② t♦ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡ ❡❛❝❤ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧❧② tr❛✐♥❡❞ ❝❧❛ss✐✜❡rs ✭✐✳❡✳ ❡❛❝❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ K ♦❜❥❡❝ts✮ ✐♥t♦ ❛♥ ❡♥s❡♠❜❧❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ ✉s❡ t❤❛t ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦r ❝❧❛ss✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤✐♥ t❤❡ str❛t❡❣②✳ ◆♦t❡ t❤❛t t❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧❧② ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ❛♣♣r♦♣r✐❛t❡ t♦ ✉s❡ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❝r♦ss✲✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ t❡❝❤♥✐q✉❡s ♦♥ t❡♠✲ ♣♦r❛❧❧② ♦r❞❡r❡❞ ❞❛t❛ ✭✐✳❡✳ t✐♠❡✲s❡r✐❡s✮✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♠♦r❡ s♦♣❤✐st✐❝❛t❡❞ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠s ❢♦r ❝♦♣✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❤✐s ❢❛s❤✐♦♥✱ ❜✉t ■ ✇❛♥t❡❞ t♦ ❤✐❣❤❧✐❣❤t t❤❡ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤ s♦ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ✉s❡❞ t✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ❞❛t❛ ❢♦r s✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t②✳ ✶✽✾ ✶✻✳✷✳✷ ●r✐❞ ❙❡❛r❝❤ ❲❡ ❤❛✈❡ s♦ ❢❛r s❡❡♥ t❤❛t ❦✲❢♦❧❞ ❝r♦ss ✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ❤❡❧♣s ✉s t♦ ❛✈♦✐❞ ♦✈❡r✜tt✐♥❣ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛ ❜② ♣❡r❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ♦♥ ❡✈❡r② ❡❧❡♠❡♥t ♦❢ t❤❡ s❛♠♣❧❡✳ ❲❡ ♥♦✇ t✉r♥ ♦✉r ❛tt❡♥t✐♦♥ t♦ ♦♣t✐♠✐s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❤②♣❡r✲♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♦❢ ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ❙✉❝❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛r❡ t❤♦s❡ ♥♦t ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❧❡❛r♥t ❜② t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡❞✉r❡✳ ❋♦r ✐♥st❛♥❝❡✱ C ❛♥❞ γ ❢♦r ❛ s✉♣♣♦rt ✈❡❝t♦r ♠❛❝❤✐♥❡✳ ■♥ ❡ss❡♥❝❡ t❤❡② ❛r❡ t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t❤❛t ✇❡ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ s♣❡❝✐❢② ✇❤❡♥ ❝❛❧❧✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ❋♦r t❤✐s ♣r♦❝❡❞✉r❡ ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ✉s❡ ❛ ♣r♦❝❡ss ❦♥♦✇♥ ❛s ❛ ❣r✐❞ s❡❛r❝❤✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❛s✐❝ ✐❞❡❛ ✐s t♦ t❛❦❡ ❛ r❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛♥❞ ❛ss❡ss t❤❡ ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦♥ ❡❛❝❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❡❧❡♠❡♥t ✇✐t❤✐♥ t❤❡ r❛♥❣❡✳ ❚♦ ❛❝❤✐❡✈❡ t❤✐s ✐♥ ❙❝✐❦✐t✲▲❡❛r♥ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ParameterGrid✳ ❙✉❝❤ ❛♥ ♦❜❥❡❝t ✇✐❧❧ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡ ❛ ❧✐st ♦❢ P②t❤♦♥ ❞✐❝t✐♦♥❛r✐❡s t❤❛t ❡❛❝❤ ❝♦♥t❛✐♥ ❛ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❜❡ ❢❡❞ ✐♥t♦ ❛ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ❆♥ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ❝♦❞❡ s♥✐♣♣❡t t❤❛t ♣r♦❞✉❝❡s ❛ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❣r✐❞✱ ❢♦r ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ❛ s✉♣♣♦rt ✈❡❝t♦r ♠❛❝❤✐♥❡✱ ✐s ❣✐✈❡♥ ❜❡❧♦✇✿ >>> from sklearn.grid_search import ParameterGrid >>> param_grid = {’C’: [1, 10, 100, 1000], ’gamma’: [0.001, 0.0001]} >>> list(ParameterGrid(param_grid)) [{’C’: {’C’: {’C’: {’C’: {’C’: {’C’: {’C’: {’C’: 1, ’gamma’: 0.001}, 1, ’gamma’: 0.0001}, 10, ’gamma’: 0.001}, 10, ’gamma’: 0.0001}, 100, ’gamma’: 0.001}, 100, ’gamma’: 0.0001}, 1000, ’gamma’: 0.001}, 1000, ’gamma’: 0.0001}] ◆♦✇ t❤❛t ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ s✉✐t❛❜❧❡ ♠❡❛♥s ♦❢ ❣❡♥❡r❛t✐♥❣ ❛ ParameterGrid ✇❡ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❢❡❡❞ t❤✐s ✐♥t♦ ❛ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐t❡r❛t✐✈❡❧② t♦ s❡❛r❝❤ ❢♦r ❛♥ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ s❝♦r❡✳ ■♥ t❤✐s ❝❛s❡ ✇❡ ❛r❡ ❣♦✐♥❣ t♦ s❡❡❦ t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐s❡ t❤❡ ❤✐t r❛t❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝❧❛ss✐✜❡r✳ ❚❤❡ GridSearchCV ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠ ❢r♦♠ ❙❝✐❦✐t✲▲❡❛r♥ ❛❧❧♦✇s ✉s t♦ ♣❡r❢♦r♠ t❤❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧ ❣r✐❞ s❡❛r❝❤✳ ■♥ ❢❛❝t✱ ✐t ❛❧❧♦✇s ✉s t♦ ♣❡r❢♦r♠ ♥♦t ♦♥❧② ❛ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❣r✐❞ s❡❛r❝❤ ❜✉t ❛❧s♦ ❛ ❝r♦ss ✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ s❝❤❡♠❡ ❛t t❤❡ s❛♠❡ t✐♠❡✳ ❲❡ ❛r❡ ♥♦✇ ❣♦✐♥❣ t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ♥❡✇ ✜❧❡✱ grid_search.py✱ t❤❛t ♦♥❝❡ ❛❣❛✐♥ ✉s❡s create_lagged_series.py ❛♥❞ ❛ s✉♣♣♦rt ✈❡❝t♦r ♠❛❝❤✐♥❡ t♦ ♣❡r❢♦r♠ ❛ ❝r♦ss✲✈❛❧✐❞❛t❡❞ ❤②♣❡r♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❣r✐❞ s❡❛r❝❤✳ ❚♦ t❤✐s ❡♥❞ ✇❡ ♠✉st ✐♠♣♦rt t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t ❧✐❜r❛r✐❡s✿ #!/usr/bin/python # -*- coding: utf-8 -*# grid_search.py from future import print_function import datetime import sklearn from sklearn import cross_validation from sklearn.cross_validation import train_test_split from sklearn.grid_search import GridSearchCV from sklearn.metrics import classification_report from sklearn.svm import SVC from create_lagged_series import create_lagged_series ❆s ❜❡❢♦r❡ ✇✐t❤ k_fold_cross_val.py ✇❡ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ❧❛❣❣❡❞ s❡r✐❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ ✉s❡ t❤❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s t✇♦ ❞❛②s ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s ❛s ♣r❡❞✐❝t♦rs✳ ❲❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧❧② ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ tr❛✐♥✐♥❣✴t❡st s♣❧✐t s✉❝❤ t❤❛t ✺✵✪ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✶✾✵ ❞❛t❛ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ✉s❡❞ ❢♦r tr❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❝r♦ss ✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❧❡ t❤❡ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❞❛t❛ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ✧❤❡❧❞ ♦✉t✧ ❢♦r ❡✈❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥✳ ❙✉❜s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✇❡ ❝r❡❛t❡ t❤❡ tuned_parameters ❧✐st✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❝♦♥t❛✐♥s ❛ s✐♥❣❧❡ ❞✐❝t✐♦♥❛r② ❞❡✲ ♥♦t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✇❡ ✇✐s❤ t♦ t❡st ♦✈❡r✳ ❚❤✐s ✇✐❧❧ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ❝❛rt❡s✐❛♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝t ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❧✐sts✱ ✐✳❡✳ ❛ ❧✐st ♦❢ ♣❛✐rs ♦❢ ❡✈❡r② ♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛t✐♦♥✳ ❖♥❝❡ t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❧✐st ✐s ❝r❡❛t❡❞ ✇❡ ♣❛ss ✐t t♦ t❤❡ GridSearchCV ❝❧❛ss✱ ❛❧♦♥❣ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ t②♣❡ ♦❢ ❝❧❛ss✐✜❡r t❤❛t ✇❡✬r❡ ✐♥t❡r❡st❡❞ ✐♥ ✭♥❛♠❡❧② ❛ r❛❞✐❛❧ s✉♣♣♦rt ✈❡❝t♦r ♠❛❝❤✐♥❡✮✱ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❦✲❢♦❧❞ ❝r♦ss✲✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ k ✲✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ✶✵✳ ❋✐♥❛❧❧②✱ ✇❡ tr❛✐♥ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛♥❞ ♦✉t♣✉t t❤❡ ❜❡st ❡st✐♠❛t♦r ❛♥❞ ✐ts ❛ss♦❝✐❛t❡❞ ❤✐t r❛t❡ s❝♦r❡s✳ ■♥ t❤✐s ✇❛② ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ♥♦t ♦♥❧② ♦♣t✐♠✐s❡❞ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✈✐❛ ❝r♦ss ✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ❜✉t ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❛❧s♦ ♦♣t✐♠✐s❡❞ t❤❡ ❤②♣❡r♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✈✐❛ ❛ ♣❛r❛♠❡tr✐s❡❞ ❣r✐❞ s❡❛r❝❤✱ ❛❧❧ ✐♥ ♦♥❡ ❝❧❛ss✦ ❙✉❝❤ s✉❝❝✐♥❝t♥❡ss ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦❞❡ ❛❧❧♦✇s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❜❡✐♥❣ ❜♦❣❣❡❞ ❞♦✇♥ ❜② ❡①❝❡ss✐✈❡ ✧❞❛t❛ ✇r❛♥❣❧✐♥❣✧✳ if name == " main ": # Create a lagged series of the S&P500 US stock market index snpret = create_lagged_series( "^GSPC", datetime.datetime(2001,1,10), datetime.datetime(2005,12,31), lags=5 ) # # X y Use the prior two days of returns as predictor values, with direction as the response = snpret[["Lag1","Lag2"]] = snpret["Direction"] # Train/test split X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split( X, y, test_size=0.5, random_state=42 ) # Set the parameters by cross-validation tuned_parameters = [ {’kernel’: [’rbf’], ’gamma’: [1e-3, 1e-4], ’C’: [1, 10, 100, 1000]} ] # Perform the grid search on the tuned parameters model = GridSearchCV(SVC(C=1), tuned_parameters, cv=10) model.fit(X_train, y_train) print("Optimised parameters found on training set:") print(model.best_estimator_, "\n") print("Grid scores calculated on training set:") for params, mean_score, scores in model.grid_scores_: print("%0.3f for %r" % (mean_score, params)) ❚❤❡ ♦✉t♣✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❣r✐❞ s❡❛r❝❤ ❝r♦ss ✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡❞✉r❡ ✐s ❛s ❢♦❧❧♦✇s✿ Optimised parameters found on training set: SVC(C=1, cache_size=200, class_weight=None, coef0=0.0, degree=3, gamma=0.001, kernel=’rbf’, max_iter=-1, probability=False, random_state=None, shrinking=True, tol=0.001, verbose=False) Grid scores calculated on training set: 0.541 for {’kernel’: ’rbf’, ’C’: 1, ’gamma’: 0.001} 0.541 for {’kernel’: ’rbf’, ’C’: 1, ’gamma’: 0.0001} 0.541 for {’kernel’: ’rbf’, ’C’: 10, ’gamma’: 0.001} ✶✾✶ 0.541 0.541 0.541 0.538 0.541 for for for for for {’kernel’: {’kernel’: {’kernel’: {’kernel’: {’kernel’: ❆s ✇❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ ’rbf’, ’rbf’, ’rbf’, ’rbf’, ’rbf’, γ = 0.001 ❛♥❞ ’C’: ’C’: ’C’: ’C’: ’C’: 10, ’gamma’: 0.0001} 100, ’gamma’: 0.001} 100, ’gamma’: 0.0001} 1000, ’gamma’: 0.001} 1000, ’gamma’: 0.0001} C = ♣r♦✈✐❞❡s t❤❡ ❜❡st ❤✐t r❛t❡✱ ♦♥ t❤❡ ✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ s❡t✱ ❢♦r t❤✐s ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r r❛❞✐❛❧ ❦❡r♥❡❧ s✉♣♣♦rt ✈❡❝t♦r ♠❛❝❤✐♥❡✳ ❚❤✐s ♠♦❞❡❧ ❝♦✉❧❞ ♥♦✇ ❢♦r♠ t❤❡ ❜❛s✐s ♦❢ ❛ ❢♦r❡❝❛st✐♥❣✲❜❛s❡❞ tr❛❞✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣②✱ ❛s ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s❧② ❞❡♠♦♥str❛t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r✐♦r ❝❤❛♣t❡r✳ ✶✻✳✸ ❖♣t✐♠✐s✐♥❣ ❙tr❛t❡❣✐❡s ❯♣ ✉♥t✐❧ t❤✐s ♣♦✐♥t ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛t❡❞ ♦♥ ♠♦❞❡❧ s❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♦♣t✐♠✐s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ t❤❛t ✭♠✐❣❤t✮ ❢♦r♠ t❤❡ ❜❛s✐s ♦❢ ❛ tr❛❞✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣②✳ ❍♦✇❡✈❡r✱ ❛ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐✈❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛♥❞ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✐♥❣✱ ♣r♦✜t❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❣♦r✐t❤♠✐❝ str❛t❡❣② ❛r❡ t✇♦ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❡♥t✐t✐❡s✳ ❲❡ ♥♦✇ t✉r♥ ♦✉r ❛tt❡♥t✐♦♥ t♦ ♦♣t✐♠✐s✐♥❣ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t❤❛t ❤❛✈❡ ❛ ❞✐r❡❝t ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ♣r♦✜t❛❜✐❧✐t② ❛♥❞ r✐s❦ ♠❡tr✐❝s✳ ❚♦ ❛❝❤✐❡✈❡ t❤✐s ✇❡ ❛r❡ ❣♦✐♥❣ t♦ ♠❛❦❡ ✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡✈❡♥t✲❞r✐✈❡♥ ❜❛❝❦t❡st✐♥❣ s♦❢t✇❛r❡ t❤❛t ✇❛s ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❝❤❛♣t❡r✳ ❲❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r str❛t❡❣② t❤❛t ❤❛s t❤r❡❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛ss♦❝✐❛t❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ✐t ❛♥❞ s❡❛r❝❤ t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ s♣❛❝❡ ❢♦r♠❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❝❛rt❡s✐❛♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝t ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✱ ✉s✐♥❣ ❛ ❣r✐❞ s❡❛r❝❤ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠✳ ❲❡ ✇✐❧❧ t❤❡♥ ❛tt❡♠♣t t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐s❡ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ♠❡tr✐❝s s✉❝❤ ❛s t❤❡ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ❘❛t✐♦ ♦r ♠✐♥✐♠✐s❡ ♦t❤❡rs s✉❝❤ ❛s t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞r❛✇❞♦✇♥✳ ✶✻✳✸✳✶ ■♥tr❛❞❛② ▼❡❛♥ ❘❡✈❡rt✐♥❣ P❛✐rs ❚❤❡ str❛t❡❣② ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r❡st t♦ ✉s ✐♥ t❤✐s ❝❤❛♣t❡r ✐s t❤❡ ✧■♥tr❛❞❛② ▼❡❛♥ ❘❡✈❡rt✐♥❣ ❊q✉✐t② P❛✐rs ❚r❛❞❡✧ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡♥❡r❣② ❡q✉✐t✐❡s ❆❘❊❳ ❛♥❞ ❲▲▲✳ ■t ❝♦♥t❛✐♥s t❤r❡❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs t❤❛t ✇❡ ❛r❡ ❝❛♣❛❜❧❡ ♦❢ ♦♣t✐♠✐s✐♥❣✿ ❚❤❡ ❧✐♥❡❛r r❡❣r❡ss✐♦♥ ❧♦♦❦❜❛❝❦ ♣❡r✐♦❞✱ t❤❡ r❡s✐❞✉❛❧s ③✲s❝♦r❡ ❡♥tr② t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❡s✐❞✉❛❧s ③✲s❝♦r❡ ❡①✐t t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞✳ ❲❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❛ r❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ✈❛❧✉❡s ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t❡ ❛ ❜❛❝❦t❡st ❢♦r t❤❡ str❛t❡❣② ❛❝r♦ss ❡❛❝❤ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ r❛♥❣❡s✱ ♦✉t♣✉tt✐♥❣ t❤❡ t♦t❛❧ r❡t✉r♥✱ ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦ ❛♥❞ ❞r❛✇❞♦✇♥ ❝❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥✱ t♦ ❛ ❈❙❱ ✜❧❡ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r s❡t✳ ❚❤✐s ✇✐❧❧ ❛❧❧♦✇ ✉s t♦ ❛s❝❡rt❛✐♥ ❛♥ ♦♣t✐♠✐s❡❞ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ♦r ♠✐♥✐♠✐s❡❞ ♠❛① ❞r❛✇❞♦✇♥ ❢♦r ♦✉r tr❛❞✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣②✳ ✶✻✳✸✳✷ P❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❆❞❥✉st♠❡♥t ❙✐♥❝❡ t❤❡ ❡✈❡♥t✲❞r✐✈❡♥ ❜❛❝❦t❡st✐♥❣ s♦❢t✇❛r❡ ✐s q✉✐t❡ ❈P❯✲✐♥t❡♥s✐✈❡✱ ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ r❡str✐❝t t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r r❛♥❣❡ t♦ t❤r❡❡ ✈❛❧✉❡s ♣❡r ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r✳ ❚❤✐s ✇✐❧❧ ❣✐✈❡ ✉s ❛ t♦t❛❧ ♦❢ 33 = 27 s❡♣❛r❛t❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s t♦ ❝❛rr② ♦✉t✳ ❚❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r r❛♥❣❡s ❛r❡ ❧✐st❡❞ ❜❡❧♦✇✿ ❼ ❖▲❙ ▲♦♦❦❜❛❝❦ ❲✐♥❞♦✇ ✲ ❼ ❩✲❙❝♦r❡ ❊♥tr② ❚❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ ✲ ❼ ❩✲❙❝♦r❡ ❊①✐t ❚❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ ✲ wl ∈ {50, 100, 200} zh ∈ {2.0, 3.0, 4.0} zl ∈ {0.5, 1.0, 1.5} ❚♦ ❝❛rr② ♦✉t t❤❡ s❡t ♦❢ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛ ❝❛rt❡s✐❛♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝t ♦❢ ❛❧❧ t❤r❡❡ r❛♥❣❡s ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❝❛rr✐❡❞ ♦✉t ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✳ ❚❤❡ ✜rst t❛s❦ ✐s t♦ ♠♦❞✐❢② t❤❡ itertools intraday_mr.py ✜❧❡ t♦ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡ t❤❡ product ♠❡t❤♦❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❧✐❜r❛r②✿ # intraday_mr.py from itertools import product ❲❡ ❝❛♥ t❤❡♥ ♠♦❞✐❢② t❤❡ main ♠❡t❤♦❞ t♦ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡ t❤❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❧✐st ❢♦r ❛❧❧ t❤r❡❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❞✐s❝✉ss❡❞ ❛❜♦✈❡✳ ✶✾✷ ❚❤❡ ✜rst t❛s❦ ✐s t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ t❤❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧ ♣❛r❛♠❛t❡r r❛♥❣❡s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❖▲❙ ❧♦♦❦❜❛❝❦ ✇✐♥❞♦✇✱ t❤❡ ③s❝♦r❡ ❡♥tr② t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ③s❝♦r❡ ❡①✐t t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞✳ ❊❛❝❤ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ❤❛s t❤r❡❡ s❡♣❛r❛t❡ ✈❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s ❧❡❛❞✐♥❣ t♦ ❛ t♦t❛❧ ♦❢ ✷✼ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❖♥❝❡ t❤❡ r❛♥❣❡s ❛r❡ ❝r❡❛t❡❞ t❤❡ itertools.product ♠❡t❤♦❞ ✐s ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ❝❛rt❡s✐❛♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝t ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ✈❛r✐❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s t❤❡♥ ❢❡❞ ✐♥t♦ ❛ ❧✐st ♦❢ ❞✐❝t✐♦♥❛r✐❡s t♦ ❡♥s✉r❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t ❦❡②✇♦r❞ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥ts ❛r❡ ♣❛ss❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ Strategy ❋✐♥❛❧❧② t❤❡ ❜❛❝❦t❡st ✐s ✐♥st❛♥t✐❛t❡❞ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♦❜❥❡❝t✳ strat_params_list ❢♦r♠✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✜♥❛❧ ❦❡②✇♦r❞ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥t✿ if name == " main ": csv_dir = ’/path/to/your/csv/file’ # CHANGE THIS! symbol_list = [’AREX’, ’WLL’] initial_capital = 100000.0 heartbeat = 0.0 start_date = datetime.datetime(2007, 11, 8, 10, 41, 0) # Create the strategy parameter grid # using the itertools cartesian product generator strat_lookback = [50, 100, 200] strat_z_entry = [2.0, 3.0, 4.0] strat_z_exit = [0.5, 1.0, 1.5] strat_params_list = list(product( strat_lookback, strat_z_entry, strat_z_exit )) # Create a list of dictionaries with the correct # keyword/value pairs for the strategy parameters strat_params_dict_list = [ dict(ols_window=sp[0], zscore_high=sp[1], zscore_low=sp[2]) for sp in strat_params_list ] # Carry out the set of backtests for all parameter combinations backtest = Backtest( csv_dir, symbol_list, initial_capital, heartbeat, start_date, HistoricCSVDataHandlerHFT, SimulatedExecutionHandler, PortfolioHFT, IntradayOLSMRStrategy, strat_params_list=strat_params_dict_list ) backtest.simulate_trading() Backtest ♦❜❥❡❝t ✐♥ backtest.py t♦ ❜❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❤❛♥❞❧❡ ♠✉❧t✐♣❧❡ _generate_trading_instances ♠❡t❤♦❞ t♦ ❤❛✈❡ ❛♥ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r s❡t ♦♥ ❝r❡❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ ♥❡✇ Strategy ♦❜❥❡❝t✿ ❚❤❡ ♥❡①t st❡♣ ✐s t♦ ♠♦❞✐❢② t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r s❡ts✳ ❲❡ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ♠♦❞✐❢② t❤❡ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥t t❤❛t r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts t❤❡ # backtest.py def _generate_trading_instances(self, strategy_params_dict): """ Generates the trading instance objects from their class types """ print("Creating DataHandler, Strategy, Portfolio and ExecutionHandler for") print("strategy parameter list: %s " % strategy_params_dict) self.data_handler = self.data_handler_cls( self.events, self.csv_dir, self.symbol_list, self.header_strings ) ✶✾✸ self.strategy = self.strategy_cls( self.data_handler, self.events, **strategy_params_dict ) self.portfolio = self.portfolio_cls( self.data_handler, self.events, self.start_date, self.num_strats, self.periods, self.initial_capital ) self.execution_handler = self.execution_handler_cls(self.events) ❚❤✐s ♠❡t❤♦❞ ✐s ♥♦✇ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ✇✐t❤✐♥ ❛ str❛t❡❣② ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❧✐st ❧♦♦♣✱ r❛t❤❡r t❤❛♥ ❛t ❝♦♥str✉❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ Backtest ♦❜❥❡❝t✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ ✐t ♠❛② s❡❡♠ ✇❛st❡❢✉❧ t♦ r❡❝r❡❛t❡ ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛ ❤❛♥❞❧❡rs✱ ❡✈❡♥t q✉❡✉❡s ❛♥❞ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ♦❜❥❡❝ts ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r s❡t✱ ✐t ❡♥s✉r❡s t❤❛t ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐t❡r❛t♦rs ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ r❡s❡t ❛♥❞ t❤❛t ✇❡ ❛r❡ tr✉❧② st❛rt✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ✧❝❧❡❛♥ s❧❛t❡✧ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ♥❡①t t❛s❦ ✐s t♦ ♠♦❞✐❢② t❤❡ simulate_trading ♠❡t❤♦❞ t♦ ❧♦♦♣ ♦✈❡r ❛❧❧ ✈❛r✐❛♥ts ♦❢ str❛t❡❣② ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦❞ ❝r❡❛t❡s ❛♥ ♦✉t♣✉t ❈❙❱ ✜❧❡ t❤❛t ✐s ✉s❡❞ t♦ st♦r❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛✲ t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ♠❡tr✐❝s✳ ❚❤✐s ✇✐❧❧ ❛❧❧♦✇ ✉s ❧❛t❡r t♦ ♣❧♦t ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ❝❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ❛❝r♦ss ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✳ ❚❤❡ ♠❡t❤♦❞ ❧♦♦♣s ♦✈❡r ❛❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ str❛t❡❣② ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ❛♥❞ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡s ❛ ♥❡✇ tr❛❞✐♥❣ ✐♥st❛♥❝❡ ♦♥ ❡✈❡r② s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❛❝❦t❡st ✐s t❤❡♥ ❡①❡❝✉t❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ st❛t✐st✐❝s ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t❡❞✳ ❚❤❡s❡ ❛r❡ st♦r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♦✉t♣✉t ✐♥t♦ t❤❡ ❈❙❱ ✜❧❡✳ ❖♥❝❡ t❤❡ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❡♥❞s✱ t❤❡ ♦✉t♣✉t ✜❧❡ ✐s ❝❧♦s❡❞✿ # backtest.py def simulate_trading(self): """ Simulates the backtest and outputs portfolio performance """ out = open("output/opt.csv", "w") spl = len(self.strat_params_list) for i, sp in enumerate(self.strat_params_list): print("Strategy %s out of %s " % (i+1, spl)) self._generate_trading_instances(sp) self._run_backtest() stats = self._output_performance() pprint.pprint(stats) tot_ret = float(stats[0][1].replace("%","")) cagr = float(stats[1][1].replace("%","")) sharpe = float(stats[2][1]) max_dd = float(stats[3][1].replace("%","")) dd_dur = int(stats[4][1]) out.write( "%s,%s,%s,%s,%s,%s,%s,%s\n" % ( sp["ols_window"], sp["zscore_high"], sp["zscore_low"], tot_ret, cagr, sharpe, max_dd, dd_dur ) ) out.close() ❖♥ ♠② ❞❡s❦t♦♣ s②st❡♠✱ t❤✐s ♣r♦❝❡ss t❛❦❡s s♦♠❡ t✐♠❡✦ ✷✼ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛❝r♦ss ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ✻✵✵✱✵✵✵ ❞❛t❛ ♣♦✐♥ts ♣❡r s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ t❛❦❡s ❛r♦✉♥❞ ✸ ❤♦✉rs✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❛❝❦t❡st❡r ❤❛s ♥♦t ❜❡❡♥ ♣❛r❛❧❧❡❧✐s❡❞ ❛t t❤✐s st❛❣❡✱ s♦ ❝♦♥❝✉rr❡♥t r✉♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❥♦❜s ✇♦✉❧❞ ♠❛❦❡ t❤❡ ♣r♦❝❡ss ❛ ❧♦t ❢❛st❡r✳ ❚❤❡ ♦✉t♣✉t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝✉rr❡♥t ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r st✉❞② ✐s ❣✐✈❡♥ ❜❡❧♦✇✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦❧✉♠♥s ❛r❡ ❣✐✈❡♥ ❜② ✶✾✹ ❖▲❙ ▲♦♦❦❜❛❝❦✱ ❩❙❝♦r❡ ❍✐❣❤✱ ❩❙❝♦r❡ ▲♦✇✱ ❚♦t❛❧ ❘❡t✉r♥ ✭✪✮✱ ❈❆●❘ ✭✪✮✱ ❙❤❛r♣❡✱ ▼❛① ❉❉ ✭✪✮✱ ❉❉ ❉✉r❛t✐♦♥ ✭♠✐♥✉t❡s✮✿ 50,2.0,0.5,213.96,20.19,1.63,42.55,255568 50,2.0,1.0,264.9,23.13,2.18,27.83,160319 50,2.0,1.5,167.71,17.15,1.63,60.52,293207 50,3.0,0.5,298.64,24.9,2.82,14.06,35127 50,3.0,1.0,324.0,26.14,3.61,9.81,33533 50,3.0,1.5,294.91,24.71,3.71,8.04,31231 50,4.0,0.5,212.46,20.1,2.93,8.49,23920 50,4.0,1.0,222.94,20.74,3.5,8.21,28167 50,4.0,1.5,215.08,20.26,3.66,8.25,22462 100,2.0,0.5,378.56,28.62,2.54,22.72,74027 100,2.0,1.0,374.23,28.43,3.0,15.71,89118 100,2.0,1.5,317.53,25.83,2.93,14.56,80624 100,3.0,0.5,320.1,25.95,3.06,13.35,66012 100,3.0,1.0,307.18,25.32,3.2,11.57,32185 100,3.0,1.5,306.13,25.27,3.52,7.63,33930 100,4.0,0.5,231.48,21.25,2.82,7.44,29160 100,4.0,1.0,227.54,21.01,3.11,7.7,15400 100,4.0,1.5,224.43,20.83,3.33,7.73,18584 200,2.0,0.5,461.5,31.97,2.98,19.25,31024 200,2.0,1.0,461.99,31.99,3.64,10.53,64793 200,2.0,1.5,399.75,29.52,3.57,10.74,33463 200,3.0,0.5,333.36,26.58,3.07,19.24,56569 200,3.0,1.0,325.96,26.23,3.29,10.78,35045 200,3.0,1.5,284.12,24.15,3.21,9.87,34294 200,4.0,0.5,245.61,22.06,2.9,12.52,51143 200,4.0,1.0,223.63,20.78,2.93,9.61,40075 200,4.0,1.5,203.6,19.55,2.96,7.16,40078 ❲❡ ❝❛♥ s❡❡ t❤❛t ❢♦r t❤✐s ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r st✉❞② t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ✈❛❧✉❡s ♦❢ wl = 50✱ zh = 3.0 ❛♥❞ zl = 1.5 ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ t❤❡ ❜❡st ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦ ❛t S = 3.71✳ ❋♦r t❤✐s ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ t♦t❛❧ r❡t✉r♥ ♦❢ 294.91% ❛♥❞ ❛ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞r❛✇❞♦✇♥ ♦❢ 8.04%✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❡st t♦t❛❧ r❡t✉r♥ ♦❢ 461.99%✱ ❛❧❜❡✐t ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞r❛✇❞♦✇♥ ♦❢ 10.53% ✐s ❣✐✈❡♥ ❜② t❤❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r s❡t ♦❢ wl = 200✱ zh = 2.0 ❛♥❞ zl = 1.0✳ ✶✻✳✸✳✸ ❱✐s✉❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥ ❆s ❛ ✜♥❛❧ t❛s❦ ✐♥ str❛t❡❣② ♦♣t✐♠✐s❛t✐♦♥✱ ✇❡ ❛r❡ ♥♦✇ ❣♦✐♥❣ t♦ ✈✐s✉❛❧✐s❡ t❤❡ ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ❝❤❛r❛❝✲ t❡r✐st✐❝s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛❝❦t❡st❡r ✉s✐♥❣ ▼❛t♣❧♦t❧✐❜✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ❛♥ ❡①tr❡♠❡❧② ✉s❡❢✉❧ st❡♣ ✇❤❡♥ ❝❛rr②✐♥❣ ♦✉t ✐♥✐t✐❛❧ str❛t❡❣② r❡s❡❛r❝❤✳ ❯♥❢♦rt✉♥❛t❡❧② ✇❡ ❛r❡ t❤❡ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡r❡ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ t❤r❡❡✲❞✐♠❡♥s✐♦♥❛❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠ ❛♥❞ s♦ ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ✈✐s✉❛❧✐s❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♥♦t str❛✐❣❤t❢♦r✇❛r❞✦ ❍♦✇❡✈❡r✱ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ s♦♠❡ ♣❛rt✐❛❧ r❡♠❡❞✐❡s t♦ t❤❡ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥✳ ❋✐rst❧②✱ ✇❡ ❝♦✉❧❞ ✜① t❤❡ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ♦♥❡ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❛♥❞ t❛❦❡ ❛ ✧♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r s❧✐❝❡✧ t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ r❡♠❛✐♥❞❡r ♦❢ t❤❡ ✧❞❛t❛ ❝✉❜❡✧✳ ❋♦r ✐♥st❛♥❝❡ ✇❡ ❝♦✉❧❞ ✜① t❤❡ ❧♦♦❦❜❛❝❦ ✇✐♥❞♦✇ t♦ ❜❡ ✶✵✵ ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ s❡❡ ✇❤♦ t❤❡ ✈❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ③✲s❝♦r❡ ❡♥tr② ❛♥❞ ❡①✐t t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞s ❛✛❡❝ts t❤❡ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ❘❛t✐♦ ♦r t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞r❛✇❞♦✇♥✳ ❚♦ ❛❝❤✐❡✈❡ t❤✐s ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ✉s❡ ▼❛t♣❧♦t❧✐❜✳ ❲❡ ✇✐❧❧ r❡❛❞ t❤❡ ♦✉t♣✉t ❈❙❱ ❛♥❞ r❡s❤❛♣❡ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛ s✉❝❤ t❤❛t ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ✈✐s✉❛❧✐s❡ t❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts✳ ❙❤❛r♣❡✴❉r❛✇❞♦✇♥ ❍❡❛t♠❛♣ ❲❡ ✇✐❧❧ ✜① t❤❡ ❧♦♦❦❜❛❝❦ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ♦❢ wl = 100 ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛t❡ ❛ 3×3 ❣r✐❞ ❛♥❞ ✧❤❡❛t♠❛♣✧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦ ❛♥❞ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞r❛✇❞♦✇♥ ❢♦r t❤❡ ✈❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ③✲s❝♦r❡ t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞s✳ ■♥ t❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❝♦❞❡ ✇❡ ✐♠♣♦rt t❤❡ ♦✉t♣✉t ❈❙❱ ✜❧❡✳ ❚❤❡ ✜rst t❛s❦ ✐s t♦ ✜❧t❡r ♦✉t t❤❡ ❧♦♦❦❜❛❝❦ ♣❡r✐♦❞s t❤❛t ❛r❡ ♥♦t ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r❡st ✭wl ❞❛t❛ ✐♥t♦ t✇♦ 3×3 ∈ {50, 200}✮✳ ❚❤❡♥ ✇❡ r❡s❤❛♣❡ t❤❡ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ♠❛tr✐❝❡s✳ ❚❤❡ ✜rst r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts t❤❡ ❙❤❛r♣❡ r❛t✐♦ ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ③✲s❝♦r❡ t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❧❡ t❤❡ s❡❝♦♥❞ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞r❛✇❞♦✇♥✳ ✶✾✺ ❍❡r❡ ✐s t❤❡ ❝♦❞❡ ❢♦r ❝r❡❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ❘❛t✐♦ ❤❡❛t♠❛♣✳ ◆✉♠P②✳ ❲❡ ✜rst ✐♠♣♦rt ▼❛t♣❧♦t❧✐❜ ❛♥❞ create_data_matrix ✇❤✐❝❤ r❡s❤❛♣❡s main ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ✇❡ ♦♣❡♥ t❤❡ ❈❙❱ ✜❧❡ ❚❤❡♥ ✇❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ❝❛❧❧❡❞ ❘❛t✐♦ ❞❛t❛ ✐♥t♦ ❛ 3×3 ❣r✐❞✳ ❲✐t❤✐♥ t❤❡ t❤❡ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ✭♠❛❦❡ s✉r❡ t♦ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ t❤❡ ♣❛t❤ ♦♥ ②♦✉r s②st❡♠✦✮ ❛♥❞ ❡①❝❧✉❞❡ ❛♥② ❧✐♥❡s ♥♦t r❡❢❡r❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❛ ❧♦♦❦❜❛❝❦ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ♦❢ ✶✵✵✳ ❲❡ t❤❡♥ ❝r❡❛t❡ ❛ ❜❧✉❡✲s❤❛❞❡❞ ❤❡❛t♠❛♣ ❛♥❞ ❛♣♣❧② t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡❝t r♦✇✴❝♦❧✉♠♥ ❧❛❜❡❧s ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ③✲s❝♦r❡ t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞s✳ ❙✉❜s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✇❡ ♣❧❛❝❡ t❤❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ❘❛t✐♦ ♦♥t♦ t❤❡ ❤❡❛t♠❛♣✳ ❋✐♥❛❧❧②✱ ✇❡ s❡t t❤❡ t✐❝❦s✱ ❧❛❜❡❧s✱ t✐t❧❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡♥ ♣❧♦t t❤❡ ❤❡❛t♠❛♣✿ #!/usr/bin/python # -*- coding: utf-8 -*# plot_sharpe.py import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import numpy as np def create_data_matrix(csv_ref, col_index): data = np.zeros((3, 3)) for i in range(0, 3): for j in range(0, 3): data[i][j] = float(csv_ref[i*3+j][col_index]) return data if name == " main ": # Open the CSV file and obtain only the lines # with a lookback value of 100 csv_file = open("/path/to/opt.csv", "r").readlines() csv_ref = [ c.strip().split(",") for c in csv_file if c[:3] == "100" ] data = create_data_matrix(csv_ref, 5) fig, ax = plt.subplots() heatmap = ax.pcolor(data, cmap=plt.cm.Blues) row_labels = [0.5, 1.0, 1.5] column_labels = [2.0, 3.0, 4.0] for y in range(data.shape[0]): for x in range(data.shape[1]): plt.text(x + 0.5, y + 0.5, ’%.2f’ % data[y, x], horizontalalignment=’center’, verticalalignment=’center’, ) plt.colorbar(heatmap) ax.set_xticks(np.arange(data.shape[0])+0.5, minor=False) ax.set_yticks(np.arange(data.shape[1])+0.5, minor=False) ax.set_xticklabels(row_labels, minor=False) ax.set_yticklabels(column_labels, minor=False) plt.suptitle(’Sharpe Ratio Heatmap’, fontsize=18) plt.xlabel(’Z-Score Exit Threshold’, fontsize=14) ✶✾✻ plt.ylabel(’Z-Score Entry Threshold’, fontsize=14) plt.show() ❚❤❡ ♣❧♦t ❢♦r t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞r❛✇❞♦✇♥ ✐s ❛❧♠♦st ✐❞❡♥t✐❝❛❧ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❡①❝❡♣t✐♦♥ t❤❛t ✇❡ ✉s❡ ❛ r❡❞✲s❤❛❞❡❞ ❤❡❛t♠❛♣ ❛♥❞ ❛❧t❡r t❤❡ ❝♦❧✉♠♥ ✐♥❞❡① ✐♥ t❤❡ create_data_matrix t❤❡ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞r❛✇❞♦✇♥ ♣❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡ ❞❛t❛✳ #!/usr/bin/python # -*- coding: utf-8 -*# plot_drawdown.py import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import numpy as np def create_data_matrix(csv_ref, col_index): data = np.zeros((3, 3)) for i in range(0, 3): for j in range(0, 3): data[i][j] = float(csv_ref[i*3+j][col_index]) return data if name == " main ": # Open the CSV file and obtain only the lines # with a lookback value of 100 csv_file = open("/path/to/opt.csv", "r").readlines() csv_ref = [ c.strip().split(",") for c in csv_file if c[:3] == "100" ] data = create_data_matrix(csv_ref, 6) fig, ax = plt.subplots() heatmap = ax.pcolor(data, cmap=plt.cm.Reds) row_labels = [0.5, 1.0, 1.5] column_labels = [2.0, 3.0, 4.0] for y in range(data.shape[0]): for x in range(data.shape[1]): plt.text(x + 0.5, y + 0.5, ’%.2f%%’ % data[y, x], horizontalalignment=’center’, verticalalignment=’center’, ) plt.colorbar(heatmap) ax.set_xticks(np.arange(data.shape[0])+0.5, minor=False) ax.set_yticks(np.arange(data.shape[1])+0.5, minor=False) ax.set_xticklabels(row_labels, minor=False) ax.set_yticklabels(column_labels, minor=False) plt.suptitle(’Maximum Drawdown Heatmap’, fontsize=18) plt.xlabel(’Z-Score Exit Threshold’, fontsize=14) plt.ylabel(’Z-Score Entry Threshold’, fontsize=14) plt.show() ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ t♦ ✉s❡ ✶✾✼ ❚❤❡ ❤❡❛t♠❛♣s ♣r♦❞✉❝❡❞ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❛❜♦✈❡ s♥✐♣♣❡ts ❛r❡ ❣✐✈❡♥ ✐♥ ❋✐❣ ✶✻✳✸✳✸ ❛♥❞ ❋✐❣ ✶✻✳✸✳✸✿ ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✶✻✳✶✿ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ❘❛t✐♦ ❤❡❛t♠❛♣ ❢♦r ③✲s❝♦r❡ ❡♥tr②✴❡①✐t t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞s ❋✐❣✉r❡ ✶✻✳✷✿ ▼❛①✐♠✉♠ ❉r❛✇❞♦✇♥ ❤❡❛t♠❛♣ ❢♦r ③✲s❝♦r❡ ❡♥tr②✴❡①✐t t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞s ❆t wl = 100 t❤❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ❜❡t✇❡❡ t❤❡ s♠❛❧❧❡st ❛♥❞ ❧❛r❣❡st ❙❤❛r♣❡ ❘❛t✐♦s✱ ❛s ✇❡❧❧ ❛s t❤❡ s♠❛❧❧❡st ❛♥❞ ❧❛r❣❡st ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞r❛✇❞♦✇♥s✱ ✐s r❡❛❞✐❧② ❛♣♣❛r❡♥t✳ ❚❤❡ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ❘❛t✐♦ ✐s ♦♣t✐♠✐s❡❞ ❢♦r ❧❛r❣❡r ❡♥tr② ❛♥❞ ❡①✐t t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞s✱ ✇❤✐❧❡ t❤❡ ❞r❛✇❞♦✇♥ ✐s ♠✐♥✐♠✐s❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ r❡❣✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ❙❤❛r♣❡ ❘❛t✐♦ ❛♥❞ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❞r❛✇❞♦✇♥ ❛r❡ ❛t t❤❡✐r ✇♦rst ✇❤❡♥ ❜♦t❤ t❤❡ ❡♥tr② ❛♥❞ ❡①✐t t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞s ❛r❡ ❧♦✇✳ ✶✾✽ ❚❤✐s ❝❧❡❛r❧② ♠♦t✐✈❛t❡s ✉s t♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ✉s✐♥❣ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡❧② ❤✐❣❤ ❡♥tr② ❛♥❞ ❡①✐t t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞s ❢♦r t❤✐s str❛t❡❣② ✇❤❡♥ ❞❡♣❧♦②❡❞ ✐♥t♦ ❧✐✈❡ tr❛❞✐♥❣✳ ❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛♣❤② ❬✶❪ ●❧❡♥✳ ❆r♥♦❧❞✳ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❚✐♠❡s ●✉✐❞❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ▼❛r❦❡ts✳ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❚✐♠❡s✴Pr❡♥t✐❝❡ ❍❛❧❧✱ ✷✵✶✶✳ ❬✷❪ ❉❛✈✐❞✳ ❇❛r❜❡r✳ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ❘❡❛s♦♥✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ▼❛❝❤✐♥❡ ▲❡❛r♥✐♥❣✳ ❈❛♠❜r✐❞❣❡ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② Pr❡ss✱ ✷✵✶✷✳ ❬✸❪ ❑❧❡✐♥ ❊✳ ▲♦♣❡r ❊✳ ❇✐r❞✱ ❙✳ ◆❛t✉r❛❧ ▲❛♥❣✉❛❣❡ Pr♦❝❡ss✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ P②t❤♦♥✳ ❖✬❘❡✐❧❧② ▼❡❞✐❛✱ ✷✵✵✾✳ ❬✹❪ ▼❛♦ ❍✳ ❩❡♥❣ ❳✳ ❇♦❧❧❡♥✱ ❏✳ ❚✇✐tt❡r ♠♦♦❞ ♣r❡❞✐❝ts t❤❡ st♦❝❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✳ ❈♦❘❘✱ ❛❜s✴✶✵✶✵✳✸✵✵✸✱ ✷✵✶✵✳ ❬✺❪ ❊r♥❡st P✳ ❈❤❛♥✳ ◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣✿ ❍♦✇ t♦ ❇✉✐❧❞ ❨♦✉r ❖✇♥ ❆❧❣♦r✐t❤♠✐❝ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ❇✉s✐✲ ♥❡ss✳ ❏♦❤♥ ❲✐❧❡② ✫ ❙♦♥s✱ ✷✵✵✾✳ ❬✻❪ ❊r♥❡st P✳ ❈❤❛♥✳ ❆❧❣♦r✐t❤♠✐❝ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣✿ ❲✐♥♥✐♥❣ ❙tr❛t❡❣✐❡s ❆♥❞ ❚❤❡✐r ❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧❡✳ ❏♦❤♥ ❲✐❧❡② ✫ ❙♦♥s✱ ✷✵✶✸✳ ❬✼❪ ▲❛rr②✳ ❍❛rr✐s✳ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❊①❝❤❛♥❣❡s✿ ▼❛r❦❡t ▼✐❝r♦str✉❝t✉r❡ ❢♦r Pr❛❝t✐t✐♦♥❡rs✳ ❖①❢♦r❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② Pr❡ss✱ ✷✵✵✷✳ ❬✽❪ ❚✐❜s❤✐r❛♥✐ ❘♦❜❡rt✳ ❋r✐❡❞♠❛♥ ❏❡r♦♠❡✳ ❍❛st✐❡✱ ❚r❡✈♦r✳ ❚❤❡ ❊❧❡♠❡♥ts ♦❢ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ▲❡❛r♥✐♥❣✿ ❉❛t❛ ▼✐♥✐♥❣✱ ■♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ Pr❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥✱ ✷♥❞ ❊❞✳ ❙♣r✐♥❣❡r✱ ✷✵✶✶✳ ❬✾❪ ❲✐tt❡♥ ❉❛♥✐❡❧❛✳ ❍❛st✐❡ ❚r❡✈♦r✳ ❚✐❜s❤✐r❛♥✐ ❘♦❜❡rt✳ ❏❛♠❡s✱ ●❛r❡t❤✳ ❆♥ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ t♦ ❙t❛✲ t✐st✐❝❛❧ ▲❡❛r♥✐♥❣✿ ✇✐t❤ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❘✳ ❙♣r✐♥❣❡r✱ ✷✵✶✸✳ ❬✶✵❪ ❇❛rr②✳ ❏♦❤♥s♦♥✳ ❆❧❣♦r✐t❤♠✐❝ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ✫ ❉▼❆✿ ❆♥ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ t♦ ❞✐r❡❝t ❛❝❝❡ss tr❛❞✐♥❣ str❛t❡❣✐❡s✳ ✹▼②❡❧♦♠❛ Pr❡ss✱ ✷✵✶✵✳ ❬✶✶❪ ❲✳ ▼❝❑✐♥♥❡②✳ P②t❤♦♥ ❢♦r ❉❛t❛ ❆♥❛❧②s✐s✳ ❖✬❘❡✐❧❧② ▼❡❞✐❛✱ ✷✵✶✷✳ ❬✶✷❪ ❘✐s❤✐ ❑✳ ◆❛r❛♥❣✳ ■♥s✐❞❡ ❚❤❡ ❇❧❛❝❦ ❇♦①✿ ❚❤❡ ❙✐♠♣❧❡ ❚r✉t❤ ❆❜♦✉t ◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❛♥❞ ❍✐❣❤✲ ❋r❡q✉❡♥❝② ❚r❛❞✐♥❣✱ ✷♥❞ ❊❞✳ ❏♦❤♥ ❲✐❧❡② ✫ ❙♦♥s✱ ✷✵✶✸✳ ❬✶✸❪ ❘♦❜❡rt✳ P❛r❞♦✳ ❚❤❡ ❊✈❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❖♣t✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❚r❛❞✐♥❣ ❙tr❛t❡❣✐❡s✱ ✷♥❞ ❊❞✳ ❏♦❤♥ ❲✐❧❡② ✫ ❙♦♥s✱ ✷✵✵✽✳ ❬✶✹❪ ▼✳ ❆✳ ❘✉ss❡❧❧✳ ✷✶ ❘❡❝✐♣❡s ❢♦r ▼✐♥✐♥❣ ❚✇✐tt❡r✳ ❖✬❘❡✐❧❧② ▼❡❞✐❛✱ ✷✵✶✶✳ ❬✶✺❪ ▼✳ ❆✳ ❘✉ss❡❧❧✳ ▼✐♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❙♦❝✐❛❧ ❲❡❜✱ ✷♥❞ ❊❞✳ ❖✬❘❡✐❧❧② ▼❡❞✐❛✱ ✷✵✶✸✳ ❬✶✻❪ ❊✉❛♥✳ ❙✐♥❝❧❛✐r✳ ❱♦❧❛t✐❧✐t② ❚r❛❞✐♥❣✱ ✷♥❞ ❊❞✳ ❏♦❤♥ ❲✐❧❡② ✫ ❙♦♥s✱ ✷✵✶✸✳ ❬✶✼❪ P❛✉❧✳ ❲✐❧♠♦tt✳ P❛✉❧ ❲✐❧♠♦tt ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❡s ◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡✱ ✷♥❞ ❊❞✳ ❏♦❤♥ ❲✐❧❡② ✫ ❙♦♥s✱ ✷✵✵✼✳ ✶✾✾