The synergy theory on economic growth comparative study between china and developed countries

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The synergy theory on economic growth comparative study between china and developed countries

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Jianhua Liu · Zhaohua Jiang The Synergy Theory on Economic Growth: Comparative Study Between China and Developed Countries The Synergy Theory on Economic Growth: Comparative Study Between China and Developed Countries Jianhua Liu Zhaohua Jiang • The Synergy Theory on Economic Growth: Comparative Study Between China and Developed Countries 123 Jianhua Liu School of Management Engineering Zhengzhou University Zhengzhou, Henan, China Zhaohua Jiang Faculty of Humanities and Social Science Dalian University of Technology Dalian, Liaoning, China ISBN 978-981-13-1884-9 ISBN 978-981-13-1885-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1885-6 (eBook) Jointly published with Science Press, Beijing, China The print edition is not for sale in China Mainland Customers from China Mainland please order the print book from: Science Press Library of Congress Control Number: 2018950203 © Science Press and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd 2018 This work is subject to copyright All rights are reserved by the Publishers, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use The publishers, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication Neither the publishers nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made The publishers remain neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore Preface Over the past thousands of years of human civilization, the average annual economic growth of more than 2% only happened in western developed countries (such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the United States, and other countries) in the past 200 years Prior to this, every country’s economy often developed at a very low growth rate China’s high growth after the reform and opening up is a miracle in the history of human economic development How to explain economic growth, or analyze economic growth quantitatively? In economics, it has started since the classical economic growth theory of Adam Smith and David Ricardo, who put forward the classical labor value theory Marx’s Das Kapital and labor value theory paved the way for a quantitative analysis of economic growth Then, Keynes put forward the four-sector theory of the national economy On the basis of this theory, Harold and Domar established the economic growth model of capital determinism Then, Solow emphasized the role of scientific and technological progress based on the four-sector theory of Keynes, although the scientific and technological progress is only a “surplus” in his opinion In the 1980s, the Arrow-Sheshinski model and new growth theories of Romer, Lucas, and Schumpeter began to be the mainstream These theories generally emphasized the role of innovation in economic growth and weakened the role of capital, resulting in a lot of controversies For example, Jorgenson’s economic growth theory is inclined to capital determinism On the other hand, Coase and North’s new institutional economics theories and methods have also been introduced into the study of economic growth Now, there are lots of production functions and economic growth models in the international academic community The scholars study economic growth from their own perspectives and on some theoretical basis As a result of the authors’ exploration over the years, this book analyzes a dozen countries’ drivers of economic growth from the perspective of the synergy theory In terms of theoretical basis, the economic growth models are established, and the empirical results of more than a dozen countries are analyzed The synergy theory neither tends to capital determinism nor to innovation determinism It tends to show that material capital, human capital, science and technology, institution, labor force, and the economic environmental externalities determine economic growth together Of v vi Preface course, the contributions of these factors in the economic growth are different in different countries and periods For example, since 1982, the contributions of technological innovation (scientific and technological progress), human capital innovation (improvement of per-capita years of schooling), and institutional innovation have been more than 60% in the United States Therefore, the United States’ economy is driven by innovation From 1978 to 2000, the contribution of capital (physical capital stock and investment in physical capital) to China’s economic growth was 53% while from 2001 and 2012, this number reached 78% This book makes a comparative study of economic growth in China and 14 developed countries over the past decades, and also builds a theoretical framework of synergy theory of economic growth Subsequently, on the basis of the detailed data, this book establishes economic growth models for the 15 countries and measures the contribution of physical capital stocks, investment in physical capital, labor, science and technology, institutions, and economic externalities to the economic growth of these countries respectively Furthermore, it summarizes the experiences of economic growth among these countries over the past decades, such as United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Singapore And based on the synergy theory, this book also establishes dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model groups for economic growth in South Korea and China, and studies the relationship among science and technology, economy, and ecological environment in the process of structural reforms (such as urbanization, informatization, and industrialization), which further expands the research scope of economic growth On the basis of studies mentioned above, this book conducts a new analysis of China’s gradual dual-track system reform, structural reform, and innovation-driven strategy This book is the result of a project of the Henan Department of Science and Technology, a project of the Henan Department of Transportation, a project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, a project of Innovation working methodology of Ministry of Science and Technology of China, a project of the State Intellectual Property Office of China, a key project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, a key project of the National Social Science Fund of China, and projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China This book is the result of the cooperation among two teachers and some students over the years Meng Zhan, Ma Jiao, Li Wei, Pan Song, Ma Ruijundi, Wang Mingzhao, Pu Junmin, Obaid Ullah, Wang Xianwen, Yang Ming, Jiang Chaoni, Xu Guoquan, Li Yafei, etc., as graduate students, participated in the studies In addition, Dr Hu Mingyuan from the School of Public Administration, Tsinghua University, Prof Wang Jinfeng from the School of Management Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Prof Yang Mingxing from the School of Foreign Languages, Zhengzhou University, and Mr Chen Zhongwu from the Mount Song Think Tank also participated in the writing and translation of this book Thanks again for guidance and support from leaders and teachers of Zhengzhou University and Dalian University of Technology Zhengzhou, China Dalian, China Jianhua Liu Zhaohua Jiang Contents Introduction 1.1 The Proposition of the Problem 1.2 Literature Review on Economic Growth 1.2.1 Harrod-Domar Model 1.2.2 Solow-Swan Model and Production Function Method 1.2.3 New Growth Theory 1.3 Studies on the Relationship Between Institutional Innovation and Economic Growth 1.3.1 The Studies of the Relationship Between Institutional Change and Economic Growth: from Kuznets to Acemoglu 1.3.2 Chinese Scholars’ Studies on the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Institutional Innovation 1.4 The Analysis of Mapping Knowledge on the Evolution of Economic Growth Theory 1.4.1 Main Representative and Their Important Works 1.4.2 Development Vein of Economic Growth Theory 1.5 The Inclusive Evolution of Economic Growth Model 1.5.1 Evolution Type of Scientific Theory 1.5.2 Inclusive Evolutionary Tracks of Economic Growth Model 1.6 The Structure of Economic Growth Model and Its Methodology of Evolution 1.6.1 Structure of Knowledge System 1.6.2 Multiform Models of Economic Growth Theory 1.6.3 Construction of Economic Growth Model 1.6.4 Conceptual Coordinate System of Economic Growth Theory 1.6.5 Conclusion 1 2 12 19 20 23 28 29 29 30 30 33 39 39 41 45 47 48 vii viii Contents 1.7 The Methods and Innovations 1.7.1 Research Methods 1.7.2 Innovations References of the Research The Synergy Theory of Economic Growth 2.1 The Determining Factors of Economic Growth 2.1.1 Many Determining Factors of Economic Growth 2.1.2 The Role of Institutional Innovation 2.1.3 Externalities of Economic Environment 2.2 The Synergy Theory 2.2.1 Synergy of Innovation and Investment 2.2.2 Meaning of Synergy 2.2.3 Foundation of Synergy 2.3 The New Model of Economic Growth 2.3.1 Income Decomposition Method 2.3.2 Decomposition of Economic Growth Rate 2.3.3 Steps of Calculating the Contribution of Various Factors to Economic Growth 2.4 Three Hypotheses of Economics and the Problems of Endogenous Growth 2.4.1 Three Hypotheses in Modern Economics 2.4.2 The “Three Hypotheses” of Economics from the Perspective of the Synergy Theory 2.4.3 Endogenous Growth 2.5 Summary References The Calculation and Empirical Analysis on the Contribution of Institutional Innovation to Economic Growth 3.1 The Method of DEA 3.1.1 C2R Model 3.1.2 Calculation Formula for the Contribution of Institutional Innovation to Economic Growth 3.2 The Role of Institutional Innovation in Promoting Britain’s Economic Growth 3.2.1 Thatcher’s Reforms 3.2.2 “The Third Way” Reform of Blair Government 3.3 The Analysis of the Role of Institutional Innovation: China’s Reform and Opening Up Policy 3.4 Stratification and Types of Institutional Innovations 3.4.1 Stratification of Institutional Innovation 3.4.2 Types of Institutional Innovations 3.5 The Relationship Between the Cycle of Resource Allocation, Efficiency of Production Factors and the Business Cycle 50 50 51 53 57 59 59 62 66 69 69 72 73 74 74 78 79 80 80 83 87 88 88 91 91 91 93 95 96 101 102 103 103 105 108 Contents 3.5.1 Overview of the Business Cycle Theory 3.5.2 The Cycle Theory of Institutional Innovation 3.5.3 The Econometric Test of the Relationship Between the Cycle of Resource Allocation Efficiency of Production Factors and the Business Cycle 3.6 Summary References ix 109 114 116 118 118 The Calculation of the Contribution of Science and Technology Progress and Human Capital to Economic Growth 4.1 The Calculation of the Contribution of the Science and Technology Progress: The Case Study of South Korea 4.1.1 The Function Model of Compensation of Employees 4.1.2 The Function Model of Investment Value 4.1.3 Overall Model 4.1.4 The Calculation Formula for Contribution of Science and Technological Progress to Economic Growth 4.1.5 Calculation Result and Analysis 4.2 The Calculation Results of the Contribution of Human Capital Innovation to Economic Growth 4.2.1 Calculation Methods for the Contribution of Human Capital Innovation to Economic Growth 4.2.2 Calculation Formula for the Contribution of Human Capital Innovation to Economic Growth 4.3 Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for South Korea’s Economic Growth 4.3.1 Model Group of South Korea’s Economic Growth 4.3.2 Logarithm Linearization and Parameter Solving of Model 4.3.3 Simulation Analysis 4.4 Summary References 121 121 121 123 123 124 125 127 127 128 129 129 The Analysis on the Factors of Economic Growth in the United States and Other Developed Countries 5.1 Research on the USA Economic Growth and Transformation Since 1900 5.1.1 Researches Related to the Analysis on Economic Growth Factors 5.1.2 The Measurement of America’s Economic Growth in Recent Century 5.1.3 Transformation of Development Mode in the InnovationOriented Country and the United States 5.2 The Calculation and Analysis of Japanese Economic Growth 135 136 142 143 145 145 146 147 153 154 x Contents 5.2.1 Japanese Economic Growth Model 5.2.2 Analysis of Reasons for Japanese Economic Recession Since 1990s 5.3 The Analysis of the Factors Affecting Germany’s Economic Growth 5.3.1 Correlation Study on Germany’s Economic Growth 5.3.2 German “Economic Miracle” and the Recession 5.3.3 Slow Economic Growth and the Decline of Investment in Physical Capital in Germany 5.3.4 Analysis for the Reasons of the Slow Growth of Germany’s Domestic Investment 5.4 The Analysis of the Factors Affecting Singapore’s Economic Growth 5.4.1 The Relative Study on the Economic Growth of Singapore 5.4.2 Analysis on the Motive Force of Singapore’s Economic Growth 5.4.3 Double Driven Capital-Innovation Mode of Singapore’s Economic Growth 5.4.4 Policies to Promote Innovation and Transformation References The Calculation of China’s Economic Growth Factor 6.1 The Studies on China’s Economic Growth 6.1.1 Estimate of Different Scholars 6.1.2 Research on the Contribution of Institutional Innovation to China’s Economic Growth 6.2 China’s Economic Growth Model and the Analysis of Factors Affecting Economic Growth from 1953 to 1976 6.2.1 China’s Economic Growth Model 6.2.2 Analysis of China’s Economic Growth Factors 6.3 China’s Economic Growth Model and Accounting from 1977 to 2012 6.3.1 Construction of China’s Economic Growth Model 6.3.2 China’s Economic Growth Factors 6.3.3 Discussion About Calculation Results 6.4 The Selection of Time-Series Data for R&D Expenditure 6.4.1 Considerations on Data Selection 6.4.2 The Autocorrelation of Time-Series Data for R&D Expenditure 6.5 The Test of Economic Growth Model 6.6 Summary References 154 158 162 162 163 165 167 174 174 175 176 179 181 185 185 185 187 191 191 192 193 193 194 196 197 197 198 199 200 201 GDP (million pound) 21587 22294 22788 22535 23497 24222 24080 25283 26708 28356 30869 31430 32482 33348 35326 38960 42187 46927 51159 57020 62814 66386 Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 108 111 137 139 145 146 163 180 198 213 258 287 327 337 342 393 422 436 532 667 823 850 R&D expenditure (million pound) 0.55 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.48 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.41 Compensation of employees (GDP) 29734 31827 33921 35533 36684 37531 38203 38870 39661 40763 42369 43988 45239 46349 47500 49084 51357 54485 58720 64098 70292 Physical capital stock (million pound) 1141 1138 1133 1124 1103 1094 1092 1099 1099 1099 1151 1147 1155 1174 1213 1272 1319 1372 1487 1583 1664 1710 Labor (ten thousand) 3928 3364 3220 3670 3487 3200 3215 3234 3508 3937 4686 4214 4132 4025 4302 5035 5986 7233 8835 10401 11715 11620 Investment in physical capital (million pound) 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 10 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.7 (continued) Average years of schooling of laborers (years) Attached list M.1 The data of Ireland’s economic growth (the prices at 1995, per million pound; per ten thousand people; years) 354 Appendix M: The Data and Model of Ireland’s Economic Growth GDP (million pound) 69902 73842 76711 80057 84762 89343 94208 92221 87189 Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 923 945 959 953 975 1027 1112 1107 1066 R&D expenditure (million pound) Attached list M.1 (continued) 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.43 0.44 0.46 0.47 0.49 0.50 Compensation of employees (GDP) 75054 79385 83440 87467 92428 98344 104825 111298 116773 Physical capital stock (million pound) 1749 1776 1809 1870 1962 2048 2123 2100 1929 Labor (ten thousand) 16509 16917 17977 19694 22650 23764 24320 21879 15839 Investment in physical capital (million pound) 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.0 Average years of schooling of laborers (years) Appendix M: The Data and Model of Ireland’s Economic Growth 355 356 Appendix M: The Data and Model of Ireland’s Economic Growth Attached list M.2 Ireland’s compensation of employees model Dependent Variable: log V Method: Least Squares Sample: 1981 2006 Included observations: 26 Variable C log HL log SD/L R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Coefficient 0.878642 0.399975 0.148512 0.991848 0.991139 0.015294 0.00538 73.38978 0.678112 Std Error 0.479712 0.081766 0.035479 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) T-Statistic 1.831603 4.891682 4.18585 4.256268 0.162473 −5.4146 −5.26943 1399.252 Prob 0.08 0.0001 0.0004 T-Statistic 0.553853 2.80682 4.299849 −4.33709 6.638689 29212.39 14198.48 16.06835 16.30832 2770.283 −.91 −1.27i Prob 0.5855 0.0106 0.0003 0.0003 Attached list M.3 Ireland’s investment value model Dependent Variable: M Method: Least Squares Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009 Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 37 iterations Variable C K SHD/K2 AR(4) AR(3) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Inverted AR Roots Coefficient 4289.686 0.315808 0.143621 −2.17573 2.872362 0.984708 0.981795 1891.538 75136248 −230.29 1.257541 91 −.22i Std Error 7745.177 0.112514 0.033401 0.501658 0.43267 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 91 +.22i Appendix M: The Data and Model of Ireland’s Economic Growth 357 Attached list M.4 The analysis of the resource allocation efficiency of production factors Year Efficiency Waste rate of physical capital Waste rate of labor Waste rate of human capital 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.77 0.73 0.68 0.67 0.68 0.67 0.69 0.72 0.75 0.79 0.78 0.79 0.79 0.81 0.85 0.88 0.93 0.96 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.98 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 Appendix N The Data and Model of Sweden’s Economic Growth (1) Data Data Sources: The data of GDP, labor, compensation of employees, physical capital stock, investment in physical capital come from Sweden Statistical Yearbook, and databases of Groningen Growth and Development Centre, The World Bank, The Conference Board and United Nations Statistics Division The data of average years of schooling of laborers come from Does Human Capital Matter for Growth in OECD Countries? Evidence from Poole Mean-Group Estimates written by Bassanini A and Scarpetta S, and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) The index of R&D expenditure comes from Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (Attached list N.1) (2) Sweden’s economic growth model (Add N.1) Y ẳ 0:06HLị0:42 SD=Lị0:268 ỵ 0:166K þ 0:36SD=K þ 9:5 ðAdd N:1Þ Attached list N.2 Attached list N.3 Attached list N.4 © Science Press and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd 2018 J H Liu and Z H Jiang, The Synergy Theory on Economic Growth: Comparative Study Between China and Developed Countries, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1885-6 359 GDP (Billion Krones) 1254.32 1248.28 1263.66 1289.31 1351.30 1383.46 1425.47 1478.83 1520.74 1566.45 1582.79 1560.86 1537.07 1500.59 1571.83 1638.84 1662.03 1706.08 1776.80 1867.99 1955.66 1978.79 Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2341.93 2412.33 2472.82 2533.98 2598.55 2674.78 2757.66 2844.30 2939.18 3051.74 3170.79 3259.91 3305.95 3317.12 3334.07 3386.20 3456.33 3523.48 3592.32 3672.08 3756.98 3831.94 Physical capital stock (Billion Krones) 217.66 204.50 205.80 211.65 228.44 244.80 247.97 268.69 285.97 321.54 321.69 293.62 259.54 221.07 238.13 262.71 274.68 276.04 300.14 327.88 347.63 348.82 Investment in physical capital (Billion Krones) 0.6223 0.6229 0.6018 0.5813 0.5668 0.5673 0.5678 0.5669 0.5673 0.5767 0.5903 0.5758 0.5695 0.55 0.54 0.53 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.54 0.56 0.58 The share of labor remuneration 26.97 27.71 29.70 31.85 35.54 38.46 39.91 42.29 43.19 43.86 44.00 43.55 46.57 49.07 52.81 57.36 59.17 62.61 64.32 68.18 77.25 84.49 R&D expenditure (Billion Krones) 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.65 11.73 11.88 Average years of schooling of laborers (years) Attached list N.1 The data of Sweden’ economic growth (the prices at 2000, per billion Swedish krona; per thousand people; years) 4,226 4,219 4,213 4,218 4,249 4,293 4,326 4,340 4,410 4,480 4,513 4,447 4,265 4,028 3,992 4,056 4,019 3,973 4,034 4,117 4,229 4,310 (continued) Labor (thousand people) 360 Appendix N: The Data and Model of Sweden’s Economic Growth GDP (Billion Krones) 2003.65 2053.34 2100.78 2188.88 2258.90 2356.04 2435.10 2419.29 2297.31 Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3865.53 3902.58 3949.60 4025.72 4127.22 4262.54 4412.56 4493.81 4548.66 Physical capital stock (Billion Krones) Attached list N.1 (continued) 340.15 346.29 359.23 392.09 423.56 465.49 491.03 434.26 414.35 Investment in physical capital (Billion Krones) 0.57 0.57 0.55 0.55 0.53 0.55 0.55 0.57 0.55 The share of labor remuneration 73.13 81.11 84.03 83.18 81.32 84.23 86.67 89.13 78.04 R&D expenditure (Billion Krones) 11.94 12.00 12.06 12.12 12.18 12.24 12.30 12.36 12.43 Average years of schooling of laborers (years) 4,393 4,368 4,337 4,349 4,422 4,524 4,565 4,455 4,509 Labor (thousand people) Appendix N: The Data and Model of Sweden’s Economic Growth 361 362 Appendix N: The Data and Model of Sweden’s Economic Growth Attached list N.2 Sweden’s compensation of employees model Dependent Variable: log V Method: Least Squares Sample(adjusted): 1981 2010 Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 11 iterations Variable C log HL log SD/L AR(1) R-squared Coefficient −1.21758 0.421269 0.26853 0.662105 0.983614 Adjusted R-squared 0.981724 S.E of regression 0.011074 Sum squared resid 0.003189 Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Inverted AR Roots 94.67268 2.124479 0.66 Std Error 0.945719 0.1197 0.033835 0.122427 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) T-Statistic −1.28746 3.519383 7.93648 5.408159 2.988117 Prob 0.2093 0.0016 0 0.081915 −6.04485 −5.85802 520.2523 Attached list N.3 Sweden’s investment value model Dependent Variable: M Method: Least Squares Sample: 1980 2010 Included observations: 31 Variable C K SD/K R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Coefficient 9.506712 0.165689 0.35927 0.97471 0.972903 30.35932 25807.27 −148.216 1.0322 Std Error 47.26736 0.022861 0.067124 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) T-Statistic 0.201126 7.247698 5.352349 766.0677 184.4307 9.75585 9.894623 539.5713 Prob 0.8421 0 Appendix N: The Data and Model of Sweden’s Economic Growth 363 Attached list N.4 The analysis of the resource allocation efficiency of production factors Year Efficiency Waste rate of physical capital Waste rate of labor Waste rate of human capital 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.9596 0.9316 0.9203 0.9156 0.9323 0.9258 0.9249 0.9285 0.9196 0.9117 0.896 0.8713 0.8551 0.8306 0.8566 0.875 0.8705 0.8764 0.8929 0.9176 0.9418 0.9447 0.9475 0.9594 0.963 0.9787 0.978 0.9853 1 0.9381 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0072 0.3766 0.3515 0.3334 0.3194 0.3157 0.3052 0.2937 0.2779 0.2662 0.2537 0.2379 0.2096 0.1692 0.1177 0.1045 0.1054 0.0846 0.0627 0.0599 0.0609 0.07 0.0801 0.0898 0.0754 0.0527 0.0337 0.0199 0.0091 0 0.2147 0.2017 0.1926 0.1862 0.1861 0.1825 0.1773 0.168 0.163 0.1571 0.1496 0.132 0.1029 0.0571 0.0488 0.0539 0.0339 0.0186 0.0144 0.0165 0.0289 0.0489 0.0622 0.0522 0.0342 0.0196 0.0103 0.0041 0 0.0047 Appendix O The Data and Model of Finland’s Economic Growth (1) Data Data Sources: The data of GDP, labor, compensation of employees, physical capital stock, investment in physical capital come from Sweden Statistical Yearbook, and databases of Groningen Growth and Development Centre, The World Bank, The Conference Board and United Nations Statistics Division The data of average years of schooling of laborers come from Does Human Capital Matter for Growth in OECD Countries? Evidence from Poole Mean-Group Estimates written by Bassanini A and Scarpetta S, and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) The index of R&D expenditure come from Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (Attached list O.1) (2) Finland’s economic growth model (Add O.1) Y ẳ 1:235HLị0:338 SD=Lị0:17 ỵ 0:154K ỵ 5HD=K þ 35:7 ðAdd O:1Þ Attached list O.2 Attached list O.3 Attached list O.4 © Science Press and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd 2018 J H Liu and Z H Jiang, The Synergy Theory on Economic Growth: Comparative Study Between China and Developed Countries, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1885-6 365 GDP (million euros) 834 845 871 897 925 955 981 1015 1068 1122 1128 1060 1023 1015 1052 1094 1133 1203 1263 1313 1383 1414 Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1827 1878 1935 1995 2048 2105 2160 2223 2308 2419 2510 2542 2534 2501 2469 2466 2481 2516 2575 2638 2712 Physical capital stock (million euros) 192 197 208 215 213 221 223 236 263 296 285 233 196 169 169 194 212 234 260 269 286 294 Investment in physical capital (million euros) 450 465 473 484 497 525 541 561 575 607 628 621 580 536 535 545 568 585 609 642 663 694 Compensation of employees (million euros) 10 10 11 12 14 15 16 18 19 20 21 22 22 22 24 25 29 33 36 42 R&D expenditure (million euros) 2355 2384 2411 2420 2435 2439 2431 2445 2469 2493 2481 2341 2176 2046 2017 2053 2082 2153 2193 2247 2293 2324 Labor (thousand people) 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.9 10 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 (continued) Average years of schooling of laborers (years) Attached list O.1 The data of Finland’s economic growth (the prices at 2005, per hundred million euros; per thousand people; years) 366 Appendix O: The Data and Model of Finland’s Economic Growth GDP (million euros) 1440 1469 1530 1574 1644 1731 1737 1588 1641 Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2789 2849 2912 2985 3062 3140 3245 3340 3380 Physical capital stock (million euros) Attached list O.1 (continued) 283 291 305 316 322 357 354 308 313 Investment in physical capital (million euros) 705 728 758 780 815 858 861 787 813 Compensation of employees (million euros) 47 48 50 51 53 55 57 60 64 R&D expenditure (million euros) 2346 2348 2357 2389 2433 2486 2550 2484 2482 Labor (thousand people) 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.3 Average years of schooling of laborers (years) Appendix O: The Data and Model of Finland’s Economic Growth 367 368 Appendix O: The Data and Model of Finland’s Economic Growth Attached list O.2 Finland’s compensation of employees model Dependent Variable: log V Method: Least Squares Sample(adjusted): 1982 2010 Included observations: 29 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after iterations Variable C log HL log SD/L AR(1) R-squared Coefficient 0.091607 0.338039 0.169789 0.744177 0.988604 Adjusted R-squared 0.987237 S.E of regression 0.008723 Sum squared resid 0.001902 Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Inverted AR Roots 98.51649 1.501231 0.74 Std Error 0.689107 0.090078 0.030751 0.147917 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) T-Statistic 0.132936 3.75274 5.521398 5.031032 2.799806 Prob 0.8953 0.0009 0 0.077208 −6.51838 −6.32979 722.9413 Attached list O.3 Finland’s investment value model Dependent Variable: M Method: Least Squares Sample(adjusted): 1982 2010 Included observations: 29 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after iterations Variable Coefficient Std Error T-Statistic Prob C 35.69238 110.9852 0.321596 0.7504 K 0.154275 0.053257 2.896794 0.0077 SHD/K2 5.000958 1.327116 3.768291 0.0009 AR(1) 0.630374 0.213769 2.948852 0.0068 R-squared 0.97673 Mean dependent var 594.5793 Adjusted R-squared 0.973937 S.D dependent var 160.3802 S.E of regression 25.89161 Akaike info criterion 9.473157 Sum squared resid 16759.39 Schwarz criterion 9.66175 Log likelihood −133.361 F-statistic 349.7795 Durbin-Watson stat 1.551518 Prob(F-statistic) Inverted AR Roots 0.63 Appendix O: The Data and Model of Finland’s Economic Growth 369 Attached list O.4 The analysis of the resource allocation efficiency of production factors Year Efficiency Waste rate of physical capital Waste rate of labor Waste rate of human capital 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.87 0.88 0.85 0.79 0.81 0.85 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.92 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.12 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.07 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.19 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.04 Uncited References Román, P., Romero, D., & Torres-Ruiz, F (2010) A diffusion process to model generalized growth patterns: fitting to real data Journal of Theoretical Biology, 263(1), 59–69 Small, H (2014) Co-citation in the scientific literature: a new measure of the relationship between two documents Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, 24(4), 265–269 Song, X.F (2004) Complex scientific research Beijing: Science Press Swanson, D.R., Smalheiser, N.R., & Torvik, V.I (2014) Ranking indirect connections in literature-based discovery: the role of medical subject headings Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, 57(11), 1427–1439 Wang, S.M., & Watada, Junzo (2009) Modelling redundancy allocation for a fuzzy random parallel-series system Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers B.V Yang, K., Chen, J., Zhang, P., & Liang, Y (2001) The knowledge discovery research of POL equipment based on regular taping Logistics Technology Yang, M., & Jiang, Z.H (2006) Cause analysis and prospect of Japanese-style economic growth trajectory Research on Economics and Management, (03), 82–85 Yang, S.P., & Shen, Y.J (2003) Bifurcation and Singularity of lag nonlinear systems Beijing: Science Press Zhao, X.P (2006) Research and practice of automatic control and hydraulics simulation in yellow river diversion project Beijing: China Water Resources and Hydropower Press © Science Press and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd 2018 J H Liu and Z H Jiang, The Synergy Theory on Economic Growth: Comparative Study Between China and Developed Countries, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1885-6 371 .. .The Synergy Theory on Economic Growth: Comparative Study Between China and Developed Countries Jianhua Liu Zhaohua Jiang • The Synergy Theory on Economic Growth: Comparative Study Between China. .. into the study of economic growth Now, there are lots of production functions and economic growth models in the international academic community The scholars study economic growth from their... Economic Growth The modern economists’ theory on economic growth originated from The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money of J.M Keynes On this basis, the first generation of economic growth

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  • Preface

  • Contents

  • 1 Introduction

    • 1.1 The Proposition of the Problem

    • 1.2 Literature Review on Economic Growth

      • 1.2.1 Harrod-Domar Model

      • 1.2.2 Solow-Swan Model and Production Function Method

        • 1.2.2.1 Solow-Swan Model

        • 1.2.2.2 Solow Residual Method: Measuring the Contribution of Science and Technology Progress in Economic Growth

        • 1.2.2.3 Cobb-Douglass Production Function

        • 1.2.2.4 Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES Model)

        • 1.2.2.5 Stochastic Frontier Function

        • 1.2.2.6 Jorgenson Function

        • 1.2.2.7 Problems of Production Function Method

      • 1.2.3 New Growth Theory

        • 1.2.3.1 Arrow-Sheshinski Learning by Doing Model

        • 1.2.3.2 Uzawa’s Optimal Technological Change Model

        • 1.2.3.3 Romer Model

        • 1.2.3.4 Lucas’ Professional Growth Model of Human Capital Accumulation

        • 1.2.3.5 Stokey’s Knowledge Spillover of New Product Introduction Endogenous Growth Model

        • 1.2.3.6 Young’s Limited Growth Model of Learning by Doing

        • 1.2.3.7 New Development of New Economic Growth Theory

        • 1.2.3.8 Other Relevant Models

    • 1.3 Studies on the Relationship Between Institutional Innovation and Economic Growth

      • 1.3.1 The Studies of the Relationship Between Institutional Change and Economic Growth: from Kuznets to Acemoglu

      • 1.3.2 Chinese Scholars’ Studies on the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Institutional Innovation

    • 1.4 The Analysis of Mapping Knowledge on the Evolution of Economic Growth Theory

      • 1.4.1 Main Representative and Their Important Works

      • 1.4.2 Development Vein of Economic Growth Theory

    • 1.5 The Inclusive Evolution of Economic Growth Model

      • 1.5.1 Evolution Type of Scientific Theory

        • 1.5.1.1 Game Evolution

        • 1.5.1.2 Kuhn Evolution

        • 1.5.1.3 Inclusive Evolution

      • 1.5.2 Inclusive Evolutionary Tracks of Economic Growth Model

    • 1.6 The Structure of Economic Growth Model and Its Methodology of Evolution

      • 1.6.1 Structure of Knowledge System

      • 1.6.2 Multiform Models of Economic Growth Theory

        • 1.6.2.1 Module

        • 1.6.2.2 The Wholes and Parts Model

        • 1.6.2.3 Causal Model

        • 1.6.2.4 Optimization Model

        • 1.6.2.5 Control Model

        • 1.6.2.6 Evolutionary Model

      • 1.6.3 Construction of Economic Growth Model

        • 1.6.3.1 Analog Modeling

        • 1.6.3.2 Inclusive Modeling

        • 1.6.3.3 Transformation Modeling

        • 1.6.3.4 Restructuring Modeling

        • 1.6.3.5 Integration Modeling

      • 1.6.4 Conceptual Coordinate System of Economic Growth Theory

        • 1.6.4.1 The Production Process of Scientific Knowledge

        • 1.6.4.2 The Conceptual Coordinate System of Synergy Theory

      • 1.6.5 Conclusion

    • 1.7 The Methods and Innovations of the Research

      • 1.7.1 Research Methods

      • 1.7.2 Innovations

    • References

  • 2 The Synergy Theory of Economic Growth

    • 2.1 The Determining Factors of Economic Growth

      • 2.1.1 Many Determining Factors of Economic Growth

      • 2.1.2 The Role of Institutional Innovation

      • 2.1.3 Externalities of Economic Environment

        • 2.1.3.1 External Economy of Marshall

        • 2.1.3.2 External Effects of Pigou

        • 2.1.3.3 Transaction Costs and Externality of Coase

        • 2.1.3.4 Externality of Political Behavior

        • 2.1.3.5 Classification of Economic Environmental Externality

    • 2.2 The Synergy Theory

      • 2.2.1 Synergy of Innovation and Investment

      • 2.2.2 Meaning of Synergy

      • 2.2.3 Foundation of Synergy

    • 2.3 The New Model of Economic Growth

      • 2.3.1 Income Decomposition Method

        • 2.3.1.1 Function of Compensation of Employees

        • 2.3.1.2 Function of Investors’ Interests

      • 2.3.2 Decomposition of Economic Growth Rate

      • 2.3.3 Steps of Calculating the Contribution of Various Factors to Economic Growth

    • 2.4 Three Hypotheses of Economics and the Problems of Endogenous Growth

      • 2.4.1 Three Hypotheses in Modern Economics

        • 2.4.1.1 Output-Depletion Hypothesis

        • 2.4.1.2 Decomposition Hypothesis: Total Outputs Are Separated into Physical Capital Benefits and Compensation of Employees

        • 2.4.1.3 Marginal Revenue Hypothesis: The Price of Production Factor Is Equal to It Marginal Output in the Condition of Profit Maximization

      • 2.4.2 The “Three Hypotheses” of Economics from the Perspective of the Synergy Theory

        • 2.4.2.1 Externality and Output-Depletion Hypothesis

        • 2.4.2.2 Polynomial of Income and Decomposition Hypothesis

        • 2.4.2.3 Returns to Scale and Marginal Revenue Hypothesis

      • 2.4.3 Endogenous Growth

    • 2.5 Summary

    • References

  • 3 The Calculation and Empirical Analysis on the Contribution of Institutional Innovation to Economic Growth

    • 3.1 The Method of DEA

      • 3.1.1 C2R Model

      • 3.1.2 Calculation Formula for the Contribution of Institutional Innovation to Economic Growth

    • 3.2 The Role of Institutional Innovation in Promoting Britain’s Economic Growth

      • 3.2.1 Thatcher’s Reforms

      • 3.2.2 “The Third Way” Reform of Blair Government

    • 3.3 The Analysis of the Role of Institutional Innovation: China’s Reform and Opening Up Policy

    • 3.4 Stratification and Types of Institutional Innovations

      • 3.4.1 Stratification of Institutional Innovation

      • 3.4.2 Types of Institutional Innovations

        • 3.4.2.1 Institutional Change

        • 3.4.2.2 Institutional Improvements

        • 3.4.2.3 Institutional Perturbation

        • 3.4.2.4 Institutional Sideslip

    • 3.5 The Relationship Between the Cycle of Resource Allocation, Efficiency of Production Factors and the Business Cycle

      • 3.5.1 Overview of the Business Cycle Theory

        • 3.5.1.1 Sunspot Theory

        • 3.5.1.2 Psychological Theory

        • 3.5.1.3 Innovation Theory

        • 3.5.1.4 Political Business Cycle Theory

        • 3.5.1.5 Underconsumption Theory

        • 3.5.1.6 Over-Investment Theory

        • 3.5.1.7 Multiplier-Acceleration Theory

        • 3.5.1.8 Currency Determinism

        • 3.5.1.9 Cycle Theory of Inventory Investment

        • 3.5.1.10 Cycle Theory of Rational Expectations

        • 3.5.1.11 Real Business Cycle Theory

      • 3.5.2 The Cycle Theory of Institutional Innovation

      • 3.5.3 The Econometric Test of the Relationship Between the Cycle of Resource Allocation Efficiency of Production Factors and the Business Cycle

    • 3.6 Summary

    • References

  • 4 The Calculation of the Contribution of Science and Technology Progress and Human Capital to Economic Growth

    • 4.1 The Calculation of the Contribution of the Science and Technology Progress: The Case Study of South Korea

      • 4.1.1 The Function Model of Compensation of Employees

      • 4.1.2 The Function Model of Investment Value

      • 4.1.3 Overall Model

      • 4.1.4 The Calculation Formula for Contribution of Science and Technological Progress to Economic Growth

      • 4.1.5 Calculation Result and Analysis

    • 4.2 The Calculation Results of the Contribution of Human Capital Innovation to Economic Growth

      • 4.2.1 Calculation Methods for the Contribution of Human Capital Innovation to Economic Growth

      • 4.2.2 Calculation Formula for the Contribution of Human Capital Innovation to Economic Growth

    • 4.3 Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for South Korea’s Economic Growth

      • 4.3.1 Model Group of South Korea’s Economic Growth

        • 4.3.1.1 Resident Sector Model

        • 4.3.1.2 Business Sector Model

        • 4.3.1.3 Science and Technology Sector Model

        • 4.3.1.4 Foreign Trade Sector’s Import and Export Model

        • 4.3.1.5 Monetary Sector Model

        • 4.3.1.6 Financial Sector Model

        • 4.3.1.7 Environment Sector Model

        • 4.3.1.8 The Objective Function

      • 4.3.2 Logarithm Linearization and Parameter Solving of Model

      • 4.3.3 Simulation Analysis

    • 4.4 Summary

    • References

  • 5 The Analysis on the Factors of Economic Growth in the United States and Other Developed Countries

    • 5.1 Research on the USA Economic Growth and Transformation Since 1900

      • 5.1.1 Researches Related to the Analysis on Economic Growth Factors

        • 5.1.1.1 Jones’ Research

        • 5.1.1.2 Jorgenson’s Research

        • 5.1.1.3 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)’ Research

        • 5.1.1.4 Chinese Scholars’ Research

      • 5.1.2 The Measurement of America’s Economic Growth in Recent Century

        • 5.1.2.1 Economic Growth Model of America

        • 5.1.2.2 Measurement on the Contribution of Institutional Innovation to Economic Growth

        • 5.1.2.3 Analysis and Interpretation

      • 5.1.3 Transformation of Development Mode in the Innovation-Oriented Country and the United States

    • 5.2 The Calculation and Analysis of Japanese Economic Growth

      • 5.2.1 Japanese Economic Growth Model

        • 5.2.1.1 Japanese Economic Growth Over the Past 50 Years

        • 5.2.1.2 The Economic Growth Model in Japan

        • 5.2.1.3 Analysis of Contribution of Institutional Innovation to Economic Growth

        • 5.2.1.4 The Calculation Results

      • 5.2.2 Analysis of Reasons for Japanese Economic Recession Since 1990s

        • 5.2.2.1 The Impact of the Bursting of Real Estate Bubble

        • 5.2.2.2 Industrial Structure Changes

        • 5.2.2.3 Weakening of the Financial System Function

        • 5.2.2.4 Deterioration of International Economic and Trade Environment

        • 5.2.2.5 The Government’s Regulation and Promotion Capacity of the Economy Continues to Decline

    • 5.3 The Analysis of the Factors Affecting Germany’s Economic Growth

      • 5.3.1 Correlation Study on Germany’s Economic Growth

      • 5.3.2 German “Economic Miracle” and the Recession

      • 5.3.3 Slow Economic Growth and the Decline of Investment in Physical Capital in Germany

      • 5.3.4 Analysis for the Reasons of the Slow Growth of Germany’s Domestic Investment

        • 5.3.4.1 A Relatively High Tax Rate

        • 5.3.4.2 Poor Mobility of Labor and Lack of Motivation to Hire Employees in Enterprises

        • 5.3.4.3 Heavy Burden on Enterprises

        • 5.3.4.4 More Complicated Market Regulation

    • 5.4 The Analysis of the Factors Affecting Singapore’s Economic Growth

      • 5.4.1 The Relative Study on the Economic Growth of Singapore

        • 5.4.1.1 Lau’s Research

        • 5.4.1.2 Crafts and Others’ Study on the Economic Growth of Singapore

      • 5.4.2 Analysis on the Motive Force of Singapore’s Economic Growth

      • 5.4.3 Double Driven Capital-Innovation Mode of Singapore’s Economic Growth

        • 5.4.3.1 The Role of Investment and Capital

        • 5.4.3.2 The Role of Education

        • 5.4.3.3 The Role of Technology

      • 5.4.4 Policies to Promote Innovation and Transformation

    • References

  • 6 The Calculation of China’s Economic Growth Factor

    • 6.1 The Studies on China’s Economic Growth

      • 6.1.1 Estimate of Different Scholars

      • 6.1.2 Research on the Contribution of Institutional Innovation to China’s Economic Growth

    • 6.2 China’s Economic Growth Model and the Analysis of Factors Affecting Economic Growth from 1953 to 1976

      • 6.2.1 China’s Economic Growth Model

      • 6.2.2 Analysis of China’s Economic Growth Factors

    • 6.3 China’s Economic Growth Model and Accounting from 1977 to 2012

      • 6.3.1 Construction of China’s Economic Growth Model

      • 6.3.2 China’s Economic Growth Factors

      • 6.3.3 Discussion About Calculation Results

    • 6.4 The Selection of Time-Series Data for R&D Expenditure

      • 6.4.1 Considerations on Data Selection

      • 6.4.2 The Autocorrelation of Time-Series Data for R&D Expenditure

    • 6.5 The Test of Economic Growth Model

    • 6.6 Summary

    • References

  • 7 Urbanization and Structural Changes in China’s Economic Growth

    • 7.1 The Role of Urbanization in Economic Growth

      • 7.1.1 Urbanization Has Become the Driving Force of Economic Growth

      • 7.1.2 Analysis of the Pulling Function of Urbanization on the Direct Factors (Supply-Side Factors) of China’s Economic Growth: Intermediary Theory

        • 7.1.2.1 Intermediary Theory

        • 7.1.2.2 The Promotion of Urbanization in Increasing Human Capital

        • 7.1.2.3 The Effect of Urbanization on Increasing Employment

        • 7.1.2.4 The Effect of Urbanization on Increasing Investment in Physical Capital

        • 7.1.2.5 The Promotion of Urbanization to Science and Technology Progress

      • 7.1.3 The Overall Analysis of the Pulling Function of Urbanization on China’s GDP

        • 7.1.3.1 Economic Growth Model

        • 7.1.3.2 Model Group

        • 7.1.3.3 Calculation of Marginal Revenue of Urbanization

        • 7.1.3.4 Calculation Results and Analysis

        • 7.1.3.5 Forecast by 2020

      • 7.1.4 Related Verification

        • 7.1.4.1 The Verification Based on the Data of Urban Population Growth and Output Per Capita

        • 7.1.4.2 The Basic Consistency of the Two Results

      • 7.1.5 Conclusion

    • 7.2 Supply-Side Structural Reform and the Analysis of Economic Growth Based on DSGE Model

      • 7.2.1 Introduction

      • 7.2.2 A Model Group of DSGE Based on the Synergy Theory and Supply-Side Structural Reform

        • 7.2.2.1 Economic Growth Model

        • 7.2.2.2 The Relationship Module Among Urbanization, Informatization, Industrialization, Agricultural Modernization and Direct Elements

        • 7.2.2.3 Finance and Banking Module

        • 7.2.2.4 The Modules of Export and Three Major Demands

        • 7.2.2.5 Enterprise Reform Module

        • 7.2.2.6 Transport and Other Infrastructure Investment Module

        • 7.2.2.7 National Innovation System Module

        • 7.2.2.8 Energy-Saving Emission Reduction Module

        • 7.2.2.9 Objective Function and Resident Module

      • 7.2.3 Model Solution and Parameter Estimation

      • 7.2.4 Variance Decomposition and Simulation

        • 7.2.4.1 Variance Decomposition

        • 7.2.4.2 Simulation Analysis

    • 7.3 China’s Economic Structural Change and Long-Term Sustainable Development

      • 7.3.1 The Main Problems Existing in China’s Economic Growth

      • 7.3.2 Optimal Design Methods of China’s Sustained Economic Growth and Transformation from 2015 to 2020

      • 7.3.3 Optimized Design for China in 2020

      • 7.3.4 Forecast and Analysis of Energy Consumption and Pollutant Emission

        • 7.3.4.1 The Prediction of Energy Consumption of China in 2020

        • 7.3.4.2 The Kuznets Curve in China

    • 7.4 Structural Reform and the Innovation-Driven Strategy

      • 7.4.1 The Analytical Framework of Gradual System Reform of Dual Track

      • 7.4.2 Structural Reform and the Improvement of Allocation Efficiency of Production Factors

      • 7.4.3 China’s Economic Restructuring Prospects by 2035 and the Innovation-Driven Strategy

        • 7.4.3.1 China’s Economic Restructuring Prospects by 2035

        • 7.4.3.2 The Innovation-Drive and Investment Interaction Strategy

    • 7.5 Summary

    • References

  • 8 Conclusion

    • 8.1 Theoretical Achievements

    • 8.2 New Findings of Several Typical Facts in Contemporary Economic Growth

    • 8.3 Analysis of Several Controversial Issues in the Study of Economic Growth

    • References

  • Appendix A: The Data and Model of China’s Economic Growth

  • Appendix B: The Data and Model of America’s Economic Growth

  • Appendix C: The Data and Model of Britain’s Economic Growth

  • Appendix D: The Data and Model of South Korea’s Economic Growth

  • Appendix E: The Data and Model of France’s Economic Growth

  • Appendix F: The Data and Model of Germany’s Economic Growth

  • Appendix G: The Data and Model of Canada’s Economic Growth

  • Appendix H: The Data and Model of Japan’s Economic Growth

  • Appendix I: The Data and Model of Australia’s Economic Growth

  • Appendix J: The Data and Model of Singapore’s Economic Growth

  • Appendix K: The Data and Model of New Zealand’s Economic Growth

  • Appendi L : The Data and Model of Italy’s Economic Growth

  • Appendix M: The Data and Model of Ireland’s Economic Growth

  • Appendix N: The Data and Model of Sweden’s Economic Growth

  • Uncited References

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