Economic analysis and forecast of china (2015)

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Economic analysis and forecast of china (2015)

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Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path Yang Li Ping Li Xuesong Li Ping Zhang Editors Economic Analysis and Forecast of China (2015) www.ebook3000.com Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path Project Director Xie Shouguang, President, Social Sciences Academic Press Series editors Li Yang, Vice president, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China Li Peilin, Vice president, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China Academic Advisors Cai Fang, Gao Peiyong, Li Lin, Li Qiang, Ma Huaide, Pan Jiahua, Pei Changhong, Qi Ye, Wang Lei, Wang Ming, Zhang Yuyan, Zheng Yongnian, Zhou Hong Drawing on a large body of empirical studies done over the last two decades, the Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path seeks to provide its readers with in-depth analyses of the past and present, and forecasts for the future course of China’s development Thanks to the adoption of Socialism with Chinese characteristics, and the implementation of comprehensive reform and opening, China has made tremendous achievements in areas such as political reform, economic development, and social construction, and is making great strides towards the realization of the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation In addition to presenting a detailed account of many of these achievements, the authors also discuss what lessons other countries can learn from China’s experience This series will be an invaluable companion to every researcher who is trying to gain a deeper understanding of the development model, path and experience unique to China More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/13571 www.ebook3000.com Yang Li Ping Li Xuesong Li Ping Zhang • • Editors Economic Analysis and Forecast of China (2015) 123 Editors Yang Li Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Dongcheng District, Beijing China Xuesong Li Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Dongcheng District, Beijing China Ping Li Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Dongcheng District, Beijing China Ping Zhang Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Dongcheng District, Beijing China Translated by Jiang Mengying, and published with financial support of the Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences ISSN 2363-6866 ISSN 2363-6874 (electronic) Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path ISBN 978-981-10-5653-6 ISBN 978-981-10-5654-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-5654-3 Jointly published with Social Sciences Academic Press Library of Congress Control Number: 2017946044 © Social Sciences Academic Press and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd 2017 This work is subject to copyright All rights are reserved by the Publishers, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use The publishers, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication Neither the publishers nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made The publishers remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore www.ebook3000.com Series Preface Since China’s reform and opening began in 1978, the country has come a long way on the path of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, under the leadership of the Communist Party of China Over thirty years of reform, efforts and sustained spectacular economic growth have turned China into the world’s second largest economy, and brought many profound changes in the Chinese society These historically significant developments have been garnering increasing attention from scholars, governments, and the general public alike around the world since the 1990s, when the newest wave of China studies began to gather steam Some of the hottest topics have included the so-called “China miracle”, “Chinese phenomenon”, “Chinese experience”, “Chinese path”, and the “Chinese model” Homegrown researchers have soon followed suit Already hugely productive, this vibrant field is putting out a large number of books each year, with Social Sciences Academic Press alone having published hundreds of titles on a wide range of subjects Because most of these books have been written and published in Chinese, readership has been limited outside China—even among many who study China— for whom English is still the lingua franca This language barrier has been an impediment to efforts by academia, business communities, and policy-makers in other countries to form a thorough understanding of contemporary China, of what is distinct about China’s past and present may mean not only for her future but also for the future of the world The need to remove such an impediment is both real and urgent, and the Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path is my answer to the call This series features some of the most notable achievements from the last 20 years by scholars in China in a variety of research topics related to reform and opening They include both theoretical explorations and empirical studies, and cover economy, society, politics, law, culture, and ecology, the six areas in which reform and opening policies have had the deepest impact and farthest-reaching consequences for the country Authors for the series have also tried to articulate their visions of the “Chinese Dream” and how the country can realize it in these fields and beyond v vi Series Preface All of the editors and authors for the Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path are both longtime students of reform and opening and recognized authorities in their respective academic fields Their credentials and expertise lend credibility to these books, each of which having been subject to a rigorous peer-review process for inclusion in the series As part of the Reform and Development Program under the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television of the People’s Republic of China, the series is published by Springer, a Germany-based academic publisher of international repute, and distributed overseas I am confident that it will help fill a lacuna in studies of China in the era of reform and opening Xie Shouguang www.ebook3000.com Preface New Normal, New Leap I During recent years, in discussing foreign and domestic economic development patterns since the global financial crisis, more and more people are inclined to describe it as the “new normal.” The meaning is similar to such phrases as “new stage,” “new era,” “new order,” and “medium- and high-speed development stage” for economic development The term was first used by President Xi Jinping at the beginning of 2014 and later referred to in many formal occasions “New normal” is becoming a standard concept to summarize the current and near-future domestic economic situation in China The “new normal” is a strategic concept of historical significance The word “new” divides global development since the middle and late 1980s into two periods with systematic differences Externally speaking, these two periods are characterized by different economic growth rates which resulted in different macro-economic variables, such as employment, price of commodities, interest rate, exchange rate, balance of payments, financial revenue, expenditure, money supply, and demand Internally speaking, the solid foundation supporting the long-term economic development is also different, such as scientific and technical innovation, its industrialization level, population structure, factor supply efficiency, relationship between saving and investment, and the real interest rate level when saving and investment are at equilibrium Therefore, new normal reveals that in analyzing the present and planning for the future, we should first and foremost spend time reviewing the past to make detailed analysis of the “old normal”, in order to gain a clear perception about where we have started several decades ago, why we have come to where we are, and how to avoid following the old track vii viii Preface The judgment of “normal” indicates the main themes of domestic and foreign economic development at present and in the future It reminds us that no matter how much we would like to linger on the “old normal,” there is no turning back if we take the large probability into consideration Therefore, to face the future, we must make a comprehensive adjustment of our ideal, attitude, strategy, and policy to rapidly adapt ourselves to the new normal and learn to grasp the principle of production and living under the new normal II Before the new normal, the world has undergone an old normal stage called “great stability” by the international economic circle (an unforgettable prosperous period seldom seen in history) During the two decades from the mid-1980s to the global financial crisis in the twenty-first century, several financial crises of different intensities erupted (1980s in Latin America, 1997 in Asia, 1998 in Russia, and 2001 in America), and the decline of the real estate market at the end of 1990s and the IT bubble burst at the beginning of the twenty-first century occurred in America However, overall, that period has witnessed a “happy time” rarely seen in the development of the global economy The global economic development of the stable period is basically characterized by sustainable rapid economic growth, low inflation rate and low employment rate as well as infrequent economic fluctuation “Great stability” is an integrated outcome from global scientific and technological progress, institutional reform and ongoing globalization The year 2007 was the turning point that the “great stability” was transformed into a great crisis The process from the phases of the “great stability” to the great crisis and to the new normal was mainly characterized by long-term structural adjustments This was actually a process in which various conflicts were produced, accumulated, escalated, expanded, and broke out under the veneer of the prosperity of “great stability.” We think, two factors are critical in such a highly complicated historical transformation resulting from various factors: firstly, was the aggravation of the distorted economic development pattern and structure commonly seen in the world today However, immersed in the comfort brought about by the great stability, most developed countries, in particular, showed a benign neglect to the crisis and were unwilling to make adjustments; secondly, the unreasonable international economic order formed after the global labor reorganization has led to increasingly severe global economic imbalance Following the ending of the old normal which was mainly characterized by great stability is now the “new normal” for the global economy to make in-depth adjustments and reorganization There is no exception both for China and the rest of the world www.ebook3000.com Preface ix III The global financial and economic crisis triggered by America’s subprime crisis in 2007 has terminated the 20-year-long “great stability” period If we regard the crisis as “off the normal economic operation track,” then there are two ways to recover from the crisis: one is to get back on track and the other, blaze a new trail The former is the outlet for many crises; it is the unending alteration from off the track to back on the track that gives rise to the economic operation cycle Blazing a new trail is otherwise It leads the economic operation off the old track, to break the cycle and explore a new direction, from which the historical course for human development is heading toward a qualitative transformation The fact that the seven-year-long crisis, (after all the hard struggling and in-depth adjustments), remains largely unchanged, tells us that like the crises in 1930s and 1970s, this crisis again heralds a profound change in the global economic development track To cope with this change, a dependence on the “standard” (even “hyper-normal”) stimulus policy will not work, nor will our efforts to remedy the systems or institutions jeopardized from the crisis This means, we must explore again the tangible economic foundation for global growth and restructure its corresponding global governance mechanism Obviously, the historical mission we are facing now is obviously different from the recession and recovery stage in the general crisis cycle We define the recovery process that starts from such a crisis and is mainly characterized by the exploration of a new path for global economic development as the new normal of the global economy The new normal global economy has five characteristics: first, the global economic growth fluctuates at a low level; second, each country is stuck in the dilemma between “deleverage” and “balance sheet remediation”; third, trade protectionism is escalating; fourth, the country’s policy cycle is nonsynchronous; and fifth, a vacuum appears in global governance Factors resulting in the global new normal come from the long-term stagnation of real economy which is mainly caused by sluggish technological advance, exacerbation of population structure, decline of real interest rates to a negative value, and the fading effects of the balance sheet This means, even if we eliminate the direct factors causing the crisis, developed economies still face many structural challenges in their future growth Therefore, it is likely for them to lapse into the new normal characterized by long-term stagnation Theoretically and practically speaking, in coping with long-term stagnation, we shall not depend on the rarely effective demand management policy represented by currency regulation and control Instead, we should resort to the fiscal policy directly influencing total spending levels and its structure Facing such a situation, economists unanimously agree that the only way to walk out of the long-term stagnation is to advance all-around reform intrepidly The priority of the reform should be given to the supply end We should encourage innovation and entrepreneurship, promote educational development, increase human capital, enhance the flexibility of labor markets, and decrease taxes for enterprises and residents 220 J Baisong and L Jianying expansion was not obvious Therefore, although the scale of our foreign investment was similar to that of the invitation of foreign capital, its effect to simulate the trade growth rate was not as obvious as the growth effect of the processing trade ran by foreign-invested enterprises 13.4.2 Continued Decrease in the World’s Bulk Commodity Pricing and Emerging Global Deflation Problem The International Bulk Commodity Pricing by Index such as CRB reached the peak from April to June, 2011, after which it showed a constant downward trend, which led to a slowdown growth rate in trade Owing to the exclusion of the commodity price factor from the global economic statistics, while the inclusion of the price factor in foreign trade caused a drop in the bulk commodity price, this has led to a faster drop in the foreign trade than in the economic growth rate Since the world’s bulk commodity pricing reached the ceiling in 2008, it has shown many fluctuations and an overall downward trend Influenced by a lagged effect, China’s imported bulk commodity pricing in 2011, also showed fluctuations and an overall downward trend In the last ten days of June, it showed a new round of declines The drop in the bulk commodity pricing led to a shrinking of our total imports, with a significant imports growth and improved trade conditions From this perspective, the drop in the bulk commodity pricing and the slowdown of import growth rate were beneficial for Chinese enterprises to lower their cost, sustain their economic growth and improve their exports competitiveness Therefore, the shrinking of the imports growth rate not only reflected the pessimistic side, namely, the slowdown in China’s economic growth, but also reflected the bright side, namely, the drop in the imports pricing We should have an overall understanding of the decline of China’s imports growth rate 13.4.3 The Supercycle of the Global Economy at the Current End According to the Schumpeter supercycle theory [it can also be referred to as Kondratiev waves (Schumpeter named this cycle in Kondratiev’s honor)], the beginning of 1950s marked the start for a round of the global economy’s supercycle; in 2008, a composite economic crisis broke out in the world, heralding an adjustment period, which signals the end of the last round of supercycling and the start of a new round of supercycles In the context of this global economic adjustment, the first adjustment was to target the virtual economy, namely, the excessive development in the finance and real estate economy, which has exceeded a reasonable percentage of the real 13 Analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Situation in 2014, and Its … 221 economy The aim was to pluck the virtual economy back on track, consistent with the real economy, through the bursting of bubbles and structural adjustment Second, it was to target the empty industries in America and Britain to adjust the imbalance in their industrial structure, as well as the overcapacity in large trade surplus countries, such as China and Germany Third, it was to target at reducing the scarcity of the trade deficit countries and the excesses of trade surplus countries The above three adjustments will inevitably lead to a slowdown in the global economy and have a significant influence on the trade and a shrinking of trade growth rate Then the global economy can strive for a sounder development 13.4.4 A New Round of Technological Revolution Still in the Cradle Currently, at the beginning of the outbreak of a new round of world technological and industrial revolutions, the rise of newly emerging economies and industries hinged on important breakthroughs in new technologies For example, in 1980s, a sustainable and rapid economic growth, was promoted by important breakthroughs in the technological developments, represented by the industries in electronic information, nuclear energy and new materials, through the rise of such newly emerging industries, such as office automation, personal computers, household appliances, nuclear power, chemical materials, and by the mushrooming of the Internet economy resulted from the birth of the network technology in 1990s and the Internet industrial revolution resulted from a combination of personal computers and networks According to past experience, at present only intelligent terminals cannot be qualified as an important breakthrough and cannot produce the rise effects in a series of newly emerging industries Only through the combination of big data, cloud computing, biological genetic engineering, and health and sports industries, as well as important breakthroughs in new energy and new energy automobile technology, can there be a rise in newly emerging industries This means if there are no new important breakthroughs, the global economy and trade growth will slow down and continue to hover at a low level 13.4.5 Weak Recovery for the Global Economy and Insufficient Positive Energy Seen from our major trade partners, different economies showed various speeds in their adjustment and different growth rates America’s economy has recovered in a short time span; it exerted its advantages in technological development and scored achievements in developing advanced www.ebook3000.com 222 J Baisong and L Jianying manufacturing industries In 2014, America’s economy maintained a growth of −2.9% in the first quarter, a rapid growth in the second and third quarters, and the annual growth was expected to be 2.5% In the meantime, we should also realize that the recovery of America’s economy depended on a series of new measures such as its policy priority to develop its advanced manufacturing industry, rather than the advocacy to transfer the advanced manufacturing overseas, as well as its incentive to expand exports Therefore, its economic recovery hasn’t attracted the global economic growth as greatly as before After the European debt crisis and the recession of the real economy in 2012 and 2013, the Eurozone economy in 2014 has undergone a weak recovery Influenced by geopolitics, the economic growth rate in Germany and France has slowed down The IMF predicted that the Eurozone economic growth rate in 2014 would be 0.8% According to our forecast, even if there was no new aggravated political relation, it was expected that there would only be a growth of 0.6% in the Eurozone Japan’s economy fared even worse than a recession Influenced by the consumption tax, Japan’s economy grew by 6.7% in the first quarter of 2014, and then dropped by 7.7% in the second quarter, and it was estimated there would be a rebound in the third quarter The IMF predicted that in 2014, Japan’s economy would drop to 0.9%, but we estimated an even lower growth rate, perhaps only 0.7% Since the three major policies by the Abe government to stimulate the economic recovery failed to live up to the expectation, Japan’s central bank implemented a new round of quantitative and easing policies on October 31, 2014 The Japanese government also opened its pension fund to enable more purchases of higher-risk financial products, which, although, has promoted the capital price of the Japanese and American stock markets, but also has fostered new greater risks In other words, if the Japanese capital outflow exceeded the expectation, and there appeared a new round of great depreciation in the yen, Japan’s inflation would face much greater risk, go out of control, and its national debt risk would also soar We have to guard against all this Meanwhile, Korea’s economy grew steadily In 2012 and 2013, its economy showed a year-to-year increase of 2.0 and 2.8% respectively Its economy increased by 3.9% in the first quarter of 2014, 2.4% in the second quarter, and it was expected that the annual growth would be 3.6% Conversely, Russia’s economy slowed down However, influenced by Western countries’ sanctions, its imports to China grew rapidly In October, 2014, the IMF, on the pretext of geopolitics, lowered Russia’s GDP growth expectation in 2015, from to 0.5% and suggested that Russia’s central bank should continue to shrink its monetary policy, and lower inflation expectation Furthermore, India’s economic recovery showed a good momentum The IMF predicted that India’s economy would grow by 5.6% in 2014 But, Brazil’s economy is heading for a recession The IMF predicted that Brazil’s economy in 2014 would grow slightly by 0.3% Besides, in consideration of the proliferation of the Ebola outbreak and the ongoing slowdown of China’s economy, through integrated analysis, we found that the positive factors (the positive energy) to attract global economic growth Analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Situation in 2014, and Its … 223 CRB trend 13 Month Fig 13.24 CRB trend weakened while the negative factors (the negative energy) that stemmed economic growth became stronger It was expected that in the remaining months of 2014, the global economy would show a weak recovery, with its exports coming in around 10% in October, November and December, and with an annual growth of 2351.64 billion U.S dollars, an expected increase of 6.4% (Fig 13.24) 13.5 Factors Influencing China’s Imports 13.5.1 Influence of a Slowdown in the Domestic Economic Growth Rate In 2010, our GDP grew by 10.3%; in 2011, by 9.2%; in 2012, by 7.8%; in 2013, by 7.7%; in the first three quarters of 2014, it grew by 7.4% While in 2010, our imports grew by 38.8%; in 2011, by 24.9%; in 2012, by 4.3%; in 2013, by 7.3%; in the first three quarters of 2014, it grew by 1.3% If we compare China’s economic growth rate and imports growth rate in recent years (see Fig 13.25), we can see that these two were related in that the slowdown in domestic economic growth led to an overall decline in the imports growth rate www.ebook3000.com 224 J Baisong and L Jianying GDP growth rate and imports growth rate (%) GDP growth rate 2010 Imports growth rate 2011 2012 2013 Jan.-Sep., 2014 Year Fig 13.25 Comparison between the growth rate of China’s GDP and imports since 2010 Note the GDP growth rate is calculated at RMB and the imports growth rate, at U.S dollars 13.5.2 Drop in Imports Commodity Pricing and Growth in Its Quantity In the first three quarters of 2014, our imported iron ore was 700 million tons, which was an increase of 16.5%; the imported crude oil was 230 million tons, which was an increase of 8.3%; the imported soybean was 527.4 billion tons, which was an increase of 15.3%; the imported bronze was 3.59 million tons, which was an increase of 10.5% The average imported price of the above goods has dropped overall, among which the average imported price of iron ore dropped by 17.9%, the crude oil decreased by 1.4%, the soybean dropped by 4.6% and the bronze decreased by 6.3% Influenced by the drop in the price of the major raw materials, the growth of the import volume was actually greater than the growth of the import amount More domestically targeted imports may reflect a potential recovery of domestic demands, especially the demand for investment, and even a probability for underestimation; however, at the same time, it also reflected no alleviation of the domestic pressure from capacity elimination and structural adjustments 13.5.3 The Overlook of Quantitative Development in China’s Industrial Structure In 2010, the percentage of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in China accounted for 10.2, 46.8 and 43.0% respectively, and in 2013, 10.0, 43.9 and 46.1%, respectively In the first three quarters of 2014, the added value of our tertiary industry accounted for 46.7% of the total GDP, which was a year-to-year increase of 1.2 percentage points, 2.5 percentage points higher than the secondary industry and showed an optimized industrial structure 13 Analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Situation in 2014, and Its … 225 13.5.4 High Added Value in Our Manufacturing Output In 2013, the added value of our high technology manufacturing industry showed a year-to-year increase of 11.8%, 2.1 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the industrial added value above designated size The investments in fixed assets of information service, communication manufacturing, electronic facilities and pharmaceutical industries, showed a year-to-year growth rate of over 26%, with the growth rate of the main business income of more than 15% Although the above factors may result in a slowdown in our imports growth, we should also realize that this has reflected a remarkable progress in China’s economic transformation and upgrading Above all, China’s imports were expected to grow by around 6% in October, November and December, 2014, with an annual growth of 2.00957 trillion U.S dollars, which would be an increase of 3.0% 13.6 China’s Foreign Economic Strategy Plan in 2014 Through the various foreign visits of China’s leaders, and a series of speeches they have made in important international occasions in 2014, we realized that the Chinese government proposed China’s opinions on the changes in the international arena for China’s global strategic plan We have already had an explicit blueprint in our foreign economic area, that is, we should promote trade investment liberalization, based on international trade and motivated by foreign investments, with the participation in the WTO negotiations, RCEP negotiations and the holding of APEC conferences as the platform; China should re-position its strategy, play a leading role in developing countries, and develop upgraded trade and services in its cooperation with developed countries; China should play a better role as a large global economic trade country, fulfill our duty as a large power, participate in making new international rules, and promote global pattern changes, to ultimately realize global governance In 2014, China’s global strategic plan was as follows 13.6.1 Implementation of the Revitalization Plan for the World’s Newly Emerging Economies China’s proposal to conduct international cooperation in infrastructure construction is customarily called “Chinese Marshall Plan” internationally Considering that China needs to carefully analyze the experience and lessons from America’s Marshall Plan, the current international political and economic situation is very different from that in 1950s, and there should be Chinese characteristics based on international conventions, therefore, it should be accurately positioned as “the www.ebook3000.com 226 J Baisong and L Jianying Revitalization Plan for the world’s newly emerging economies” Its basic framework and major guideline should be as follows First, at the beginning of 2014, President Xi Jinping attended the BRICS forum; he visited Africa, Russia and Central Asia, and made important agreements on the establishment of the development bank and the emergency fund These two financial institutions aimed at providing compensation for the function of the World Bank and the IMF, by injecting new vitality into the economic development of the world’s newly emerging economies and developing countries, as well as offering global fundamental and policy development assistance Second, we should advocate and advance the cooperation in “One Belt One Road”, Asian infrastructure construction, and Asian security and trust, with such Asian mechanisms as Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and CICA summit as the platforms The geographic cooperation areas included: Russia, Central Asia region, Eastern and Western Europe region, Western Asia, Middle East region, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia region Their cooperation was not only limited in economic matters, but also in politics, security, ecology, and so on 13.6.2 New Cooperation with Developed Countries Such as America and Europe First, with the G20 as the platform, we should advocate the cooperation in global infrastructure investment, attract global economic growth, advocate the reform of the global financial system, and propose detailed reform plans Second, with the Asia-Europe cooperation mechanism as the platform, we should focus on developing an overall deepening of economic trade relationships with European Union countries Last, taking the opportunity to hold the annual APEC conference in China, we should promote cross-regional trade investment liberalization, crack down terrorist activities, and safeguard regional security and so on 13.6.3 Promoting Asian Development with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Silk Road Fund as the Platforms In September, 2014, the Chinese president visited India, and one of the important agreements reached with India was the establishment of a strategic partnership They have reached consensus on many areas such as the development of the manufacturing industry and the infrastructure construction Meanwhile, India also voiced its support for China’s advocacy in order to establish an Asian 13 Analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Situation in 2014, and Its … 227 Infrastructure Investment Bank China and India exerted strong regional clout in the Asian development First, among China’s strategic pathway projects to the Indian Ocean, and its past Sino-Burma energy pipeline project in Burma’s construction, China has succeeded in inviting India as a partner Its next step was to conduct cooperation in the Maritime Silk Road, with Asian Infrastructure Investment Banking as the platforms, and expand the South Asian economic corridor We have witnessed that the Sino-Indian strategic partnership has laid a political foundation for this Second, among China’s strategic pathway projects to Southeast Asia, some preliminary ideas were proposed for the interconnection and interworking between China and ASEAN, for example, the establishment of the railway from Singapore, Thailand and Laos, to China’s Kunming Besides, China has conducted cooperation in large construction projects in energy and electric power with ASEAN countries Last, among China’s strategic pathway projects to Europe, China is conducting the Silk Road “land-to-land cooperation” with Russia, the Central Asian countries and Mongolia 13.6.4 Deepening the Reform of the RMB Exchange Rate and Advancing Its Internationalization In 2014, the reform of the formation mechanism of China’s RMB exchange rate has made new progress First, the fluctuation range expanded to 0.3%; Second, there was more freedom to select the RMB or dollars in foreign investment, and the scale has expanded.; Third, the RMB faced both appreciation and depreciation, and realized a two-way fluctuation; Fourth, the management of capital transactions in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone realized free convertibility of certain amounts under the capital account The formation mechanism reform of the RMB exchange rate has progressed too slowly and prudently, which has resulted in a large accumulation of foreign currency, making it a difficult problem to absorb the reserve More progress has been made in cross-border settlements In July, 2009, the experiment of the RMB settlement in China’s cross-border trade was officially conducted In the fifth anniversary seminar on cross-border RMB business, the vice president of the central bank, Hu Xiaolian, introduced that in the first three quarters of 2014, the sum for cross-border RMB settlement exceeded 4.8 trillion yuan, which rendered the RMB the second cross-border payment currency in China With the percentage of the RMB cross-border payments in total RMB and foreign currency cross-border payments approached 25%, and the percentage of the RMB settlement in the imports and exports of trade in goods exceeded 15% The number of countries with cross-border RMB payments reached 174 The RMB swap agreement has expanded its international utilization range By September, 2014, the People’s Bank of China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 26 overseas central banks or monetary authorities, with the total www.ebook3000.com 228 J Baisong and L Jianying amounts reached about 2.9 trillion yuan It also established the RMB clearing arrangement in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions and Singapore They realized a direct trade between the RMB and such major currencies as the U.S dollar, Euro, Yen and the Pound With the expanding international utilization range of the RMB, the international financial markets and financial centers began to regard the RMB business and products as a new opportunity for development The financial centers in Hong Kong, London, Singapore and Frankfurt have expanded the RMB financial products The reserve function of the RMB has increasingly been acknowledged According to media reports, the European central bank has also discussed the inclusion of the RMB into the reserve currency recently Hu Xiaolian said that some central banks or monetary authorities have prepared to include the RMB into their foreign currency reserves The experimented RMB backflow has partially opened the market In 2014, the demand for overseas main bodies to invest in the domestic financial market, promoted an even more opened Chinese market, with more open “Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connects”, overseas institutional investments into domestic inter-bank bond markets and RQFII, allowed RMB backflow, and improved the appeal of RMB financial capital This, in turn, has promoted cross-border RMB utilization Besides, the RMB settlement was used in bulk commodity trade Foreign investors can use RMB to set up domestic funds, merge and participate in financial institutions 13.6.5 Cultivating New Competitive Advantages While Promoting the Internationalization of Strategic Emerging Industries In 2014, China’s global strategic plan, on the one hand, made positive contributions to the global development, and on the other hand, was the Chinese government’s guidance for enterprises to make clear their direction, accelerate their transformation, reallocate resources, and run strategic newly emerging industries and key products In the past, our foreign trade development set the strategic positioning on exerting resource and labor advantages, participated in international labor division, and focused the development direction on key labor-intensive products and labor-intensive processing links From the 12th Five-Year Plan, our foreign trade strategy has been positioned on capital- and technology-intensive products, and focused on transformation and upgrading We proposed for the first time in the 2014, in the Economic Blue Book, that 2013 marked the first year for the transformation and upgrading in China’s foreign trade development We pointed out that our large equipment manufacturing such as high-speed rail, energy and electricity, 13 Analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Situation in 2014, and Its … 229 boasted international competitive advantages, and their foreign development needed national support and sound political cooperation between countries In 2014, the Chinese government has implemented global strategies in its foreign development, which has laid a foundation for the development of China’s foreign trade as well as tits transition In 2014 and in a long time to come, the key in China’s foreign trade exports will be the large equipment manufacturing products, transportation facilities and such capital- and technology-intensive products, such as machinery, chemical engineering, material, electronics and communication, as well as to support the development of more strategic newly emerging industries and seek global development First, we can see that China Southern Locomotive and CNR Corporation have sought opportunities worldwide In 2014, they have won the bid of the American subway carriage exports project, the bid in the first assessment of the Mexican intercity high-speed rail project, and signed the medium- and high-speed railway construction project with Thailand This revealed the competitive edge of multispecies and serialization of China’s railway industry, and their strategic plan for more participation in foreign trade We suggested that China should help countries to develop the railway, not only the city railway and intercity railway, but also long-distance railway, in order to realize a network layout It should also follow the demand of more e-commerce for logistics and delivery, and construct a comprehensive system Only in this way can the advantages of overland transportation be fully exerted and can compete with ocean transportation head-on Second, among the newly emerging economies and developing countries, China’s energy industries such as nuclear power, hydropower, wind power and solar power generation enjoyed composite advantages, and more cost advantages than developed countries Therefore, our enterprises should cooperate with the Chinese government for global layout plans, business opportunities and business expansion Third, the self-owned car brands in China’s automobile industry, has sought international development and needs repositioning In 2014, our automobile exports showed a remarkably decline which was mainly a consequence of a blurred strategic positioning of our automobile enterprises In the traditional car-producing areas, America, Germany, Japan and the late comer Korea, have boasted strong competitive advantages while our self-owned brand automobile enterprises were at an obvious disadvantaged position Therefore, it was extremely difficult for us to develop car exports In recent years, our automobile industries have developed vigorously new energy automobiles, battery-operated motor cycles and bicycles, which brought us new hope for foreign development In the new energy automobile fields, the gap between the developed countries such as America, Japan and Europe and China is not big, and China in the fields of battery-operated motor cycles and bicycles has competitive advantages It was suggested that our government and industry associations should cooperate to guide our enterprises to develop new energy automobiles, battery-operated motor cycles and bicycles overseas www.ebook3000.com 230 J Baisong and L Jianying Finally, we also suggested that as our automobile enterprises have already been equipped with the competitive advantages in manufacturing large, medium, small and micro trucks as well as in motorbuses, motorcycles, agricultural vehicles and farm machinery by relying on large domestic markets, these enterprises should, on the one hand, explore the international markets and make feasibility analysis of investments and exports, and on the other hand, track the process of the interconnection and interworking construction between our government and the world’s newly emerging economies, and seek business opportunities in the area of transportation infrastructure construction In 2014, our Beiqi Foton established a small truck exports enterprise in Ruili, Yunnan As it is adjacent to the Burmese Border and has its products geared towards Southeast Asia, it was convenient for the company to use the mutual exports preferential tax policy between ASEAN countries, which may bring it a bright future 13.7 The Global Economic Trend in 2015 In 2014, the International Monetary Fund has lowered the predicted value for global economic growth three times In October, it issued again, that the predicted value in 2015, would be 3.8%, higher than the 3.3% in 2014 We have to suspect its accuracy In the autumn of 2014, the stock market in America, Europe and Japan has plummeted The economy in Japan, Germany, France and Russia, all showed signs of recession and America’s economic development was also sluggish, so was China’s In 2015, the world’s economy has been in a downturn and will likely enter a new round of recession 13.7.1 The Stock Market, the “Leading Index” for Economic Recession The S&P 500 price, dropped from 2019 points on September 19, 2014, to 1820 points on October 15, which decreased by 10%, and which was the second low since February 5, 2014 It has dropped below the yearly line, and the turnover was many times more than usual, when it set a record high Many signs showed that this was the beginning for drastic adjustments in the stock market In addition, the European market has dropped even lower Until October 15, Germany’s stock market decreased by 15% from its peak at 10,050 points; Britain’s stock market dropped from 6904 points to 6,211 points on October 15, a decrease of 10%; France, from 4598 points to 3939 points on October 15, a decrease of 14%; and Japan, dropped from 16,374 points to 14,735 points on October 16, a decrease of 10% Besides, probably around the same period, Australia dropped by 10%, Korea, 30%, Canada, 15%, Russia, 34% and Brazil, 19% until October 2, and so on 13 Analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Situation in 2014, and Its … 231 13.7.2 Lowering the Predicted Value of Economic Growth by World-Renowned Institutions First, on October 7, 2014, the IMF issued a report to lower the predicted value of the global economic growth It has lowered the value three times in only one year The IMF was also concerned about the downward trend of the economic growth in the Eurozone’s core countries, Japan, and the newly emerging economies The IMF lowered the global GDP growth rate in 2015, from to 3.8% We proposed that in 2015, Japan’s economy would face high risk potential Currently, Japan’s central bank has implemented new quantitative and easing policies While they promoted the asset price in the stock market, they have diluted the drop in the bulk commodity pricing and the expected inflation The new quantitative easing policy led to a remarkable depreciation of the yen It has attracted the expected inflation, but with the concurrent drop in the bulk commodity pricing These two forces have offset the expectation that attracted the expected inflation Still more unexpected, was that the unjustified debt imposed on the bank, has increased the risk potential It was expected that if the global economy plunges into a recession in 2015, Japan’s economy would stay stagnant and the international capital flow to the Japanese market may soon drift out As a result, it was expected that the Yen would face a steep depreciation, and incite Japan’s national debt, financial crisis, and real economic crisis Second, after lowering the prediction for the global economy in the middle of 2014, the World Bank issued East Asia and Pacific Economic Updates on October 6, which lowered China’s economic growth in 2014 and 2015, by 7.4 and 7.2% respectively The report predicted that the economy in East Asian developing countries, increased by 6.9% in 2014, which was lower than the 7.2% in 2013 Third, on November 4, the European Union decreased the growth rate of the Eurozone economy to 1.1%; in April, it was predicted to be 1.7% This showed a sluggish economic recovery in the Eurozone Among it, Germany’s economy was expected to grow merely by 1.1%, even lower than the predicted value of 1.2%, which was published by the German government in November Besides, the prediction of France and Italy was also pessimistic Fourth, the International Monetary Fund has issued a warning of recession In October, 2014, the IMF pointed out that the probability for an economic recession in Germany, France and Italy would be 40% We think that Japan’s economy has been gradually failing since the upgrading of the consumer tax, and Russia’s economy showed obvious signs of recession after the sanction Fifth, the Ebola outbreak in Western Africa has expanded the risk At present, although the economies of the countries in Western Africa accounted for an extreme minor percentage in the global economy, the proliferation of the Ebola epidemic was very disquieting According to the statistics of the World Health Organization, it has caused a death toll as high as 70% America has discussed the prevention method and the airline stock has dropped due to this As China, the European Union and America have engaged in frequent business transactions with www.ebook3000.com 232 J Baisong and L Jianying Africa, they have increased aid to the epidemic zone, which added some risk potential for the global economy 13.7.3 Price Shift in the International Bulk Commodity Pricing The international crude oil price, namely the Brent oil price, dropped from the peak of 113.92 USD/barrel on June 23, 2014, to 84.06 USD/barrel on October 16, 2014, which was a drop of 26.2% In the same period, the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) index, dropped from the peak of 313, to the bottom of 270, which decreased by 14% Based on the past experience, the drop of the bulk commodity pricing in the international market from this round was different from that in 2011 or 2012 In the past adjustment, the price stayed at a high level, while at the time, the drop of the price was on a lower downward track, with a duration longer than the general adjustment period It continued to drop, with a comparatively great decreasing rate, which was an obvious symbol for economic recession, and a pessimistic prospect for the global economy 13.7.4 Insufficient Motivation for the Global Economic Growth from the Support of the “Two-Horse Carriage”—China and America In the past, China’s economic growth maintained at 9–10%, which served as an engine for the global economic growth However, in 2011, the Chinese government began to adjust the overheating, by suppressing the unduly rapid growth of the real estate prices and shrinking the money market The motivation from the Chinese economy to the global economic growth began to abate and became weaker in 2015 In 2013, America’s economy gradually recovered According to the IMF data, its motivation for the global economy merely around 15% All have shown an insufficient motivation for the global economic growth from the support of the “Two-horse carriage”—China and America Moreover, America’s economic growth rate in the third quarter of 2014 was 3.5%, among which the simulating effect from the defense expenditure was obvious However, it was expected that America’s defense budget in 2015 would have no significant increase, and there would be no strong motivation for American economic recovery overall According to the IMF’s purchasing power parity data, the percentage of America’s GDP in the global economy declined from the 19.2%, before the financial crisis to 16.5%, at the end of 2013 As was mentioned before, the American government has encouraged exports in policies to reverse the imbalance 13 Analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Situation in 2014, and Its … 233 and was unwilling to see a considerable growth in imports as before Therefore, we cannot expect America to attract the same standard of global economic growth as before 13.7.5 Debt Risks of Newly Emerging Economies After the international financial crisis in 2008, the easing monetary policy adopted by major developed countries led to excessive global liquidity And with a relatively high financial market interest rate level, the newly emerging economies conducted large-scale financing in the international financial markets, with a low cost and the scale of the corporate bonds issued by them has expanded remarkably From 2011 to 2013, the annual average has exceeded 600 billion U.S dollars and the private sector enhanced its leverage In 2013, upset by the Federal Reserve’s retreat from QE, the financial market of the newly emerging economies encountered some turmoil in the middle of the year, but their annual corporate bond scale managed to surpass 700 billion U.S dollars, which set a new record high after 2012 The percentage of the corporate debt of the GDP rose from 50% in the second quarter of 2007, to 75% in 2013 A considerable part of the enterprise debt of the newly emerging economies was calculated at major international currency Therefore, when the Federal Reserve increases the interest rate in the future, the withdrawal of international capital will inevitably suppress the interest rate of the newly emerging economies This will increase the business debt repayment burdens and influence the refinancing of businesses According to the calculation of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), from 2014 to 2018, the deferred enterprise debt of the newly emerging economies is expected to reach 1.68 trillion dollars, among which around 30% will be calculated at major international currencies Once the Federal Reserve increases the interest rate, America’s national debt treasury bonds return rate will increase, and the cost of the newly emerging economies’ deferred enterprise debt will rise significantly, even may surpass enterprises profitability level This will, undoubtedly, increase the risk potential for the outbreak of a debt crisis in countries like Argentina and Indonesia whose enterprise debt structure is mainly characterized by foreign debt 13.8 Prospect of China’s Imports and Exports Situation in 2015 To sum up at the time of this writing, the world’s bulk commodity pricing was expected to continue to drop in 2015 It was expected that U.S dollars would continue to appreciate in the appreciation cycle, the global economy would continue its adjustment, and major economies would face downward pressure and www.ebook3000.com 234 J Baisong and L Jianying rising risks In 2015, the global economic and trade growth was expected to contract with prudent expectation and with possibilities for a new round of recession We estimated that the domestic economic growth will continue to fall back, with an increase of approximately 7.0% The RMB would show a two-way fluctuation, with a larger fluctuation range and an increasing free convertibility, and would slightly appreciate We also expected that in 2015, China would have a year-to-year increase of 6.6% in imports and exports, which would reach 4648 billion U.S dollars, among which the exports would be 2528 billion U.S dollars, an increase of 7.5% and the imports would be 2120 billion U.S dollars, an increase of 5.5% ... I Economic Analysis and Forecast of China 2014 Autumn Report Economic Analysis and Forecast of China Research Group Part II General Report Economic. .. Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in Netherlands and the Economic Department of University of Chicago; Main research fields include analysis and prediction of economic situation and macro- and micro-effect... www.ebook3000.com Chapter Economic Analysis and Forecast of China 2014 Autumn Report Economic Analysis and Forecast of China Research Group Abstract Due to the fact that China s economy was in

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  • Series Preface

  • Preface

    • New Normal, New Leap

    • I

    • II

    • III

    • IV

    • V

  • Academic Committee of “Economic Analysis and Forecast of China”Chairman: Li YangVice-chairman: Liu Shucheng, Lv ZhengMembers: Wang Guogang, Tian Xueyuan, Zhu Ling, Zhang Ping, Zhang Chewei, Zhang Zhuoyuan, Zhang Xiaoshan, Zhang Xiaojing, Li Ping, Li Zhou, Li Xuesong, Yang Shengming, Wang Tongsan, Zhou Shulian, Jin Bei, Yin Jianfeng, Gao peiyong, Huang Qunhui, Cai Fang, Pei Changhong, Pan Jiahua, Wei houkuaiEditorial Board of “Blue Book of China’s Economy”Chief Editor: Li YangVice-Chief Editors: Li Ping, Li Xuesong, Zhang PingContributors: Li Yang, Li Xuesong, Zhang Tao, Li Jun, Fan Mingtai, Lou Feng, Wang Wenbo, Peng Zhan, Liu Shucheng, Zhao Kun, Wang Baolin, Fu Linghui, Li Zhou, Dang Guoying, Yuan Lei, Jin Bei, Xie Sanming, Zhang Liqun, Li Poxi, Zheng Chaoyu, Chen Lei, Sui Zhanlin, Zhang Tongbin, Cai Jin, Wu Wei, Yan Xiandong, Ye Huan, Jin Bosong, Liu Jianyin, Chen Kexin, Cai Fang, Lu Yang, Fu Guangjun, Zhu Pingfang, Chen Shoudong, Liu Yang, Zhang Guanhua, Xiong Junli, Liu Mengjun, Peng Suling, Chen Xinhui, Chenli Ailun, Wu Chengye, Chen YanwuEditorial TeamDirector: Li JinhuaVice Director: Peng ZhanMembers: Han Shengjun, Zhang Jie, Chen Xingxing, Wang Xifeng

    • Editorial Board of “Blue Book of China’s Economy”

  • Contents

  • About the Editors

  • Summary

  • General Report

  • 1 Economic Analysis and Forecast of China—2014 Autumn Report

    • Abstract

    • 1.1 Current International Economic Environment and Forecast of China’s Economy from 2014 to 2015

      • 1.1.1 Analysis of the Current International Economic Environment

      • 1.1.2 China’s Economic Forecast of Major Indexes from 2014 to 2015

    • 1.2 Promoting a Stable and Balanced Development of Domestic Demand Under the “New Normal”

      • 1.2.1 Enhancing Investment in Research and Development, High-End Manufacturing, Modern Services, Ecological and Environmental Protection and Infrastructure and Optimizing Investment Structure

      • 1.2.2 Promoting Residents’ Reasonable and Justified Housing Demands and Addressing Residents’ Demand for Improved Housing

    • 1.3 Following a Pro-active Fiscal Policy, Improving Utilization Rates of Financial Funds and Accelerating the Reform of the Financial and Taxation Systems

      • 1.3.1 The Pro-active Fiscal Policy Under the “New Normal” Should Focus on Adjusting the Expenditure Structure and Improve the Utilization Rate of Financial Funds

      • 1.3.2 Accelerating the Reform of the Financial and Taxation Systems

      • 1.3.3 Enhancing the Local Tax System Construction and Properly Expanding Tax Sources for Local Finance

    • 1.4 Implementing Directional Easing and Prudent Monetary Policy, Deepening Reform and Alleviating the Problem of “Difficult and Expensive Financing”, While Developing the Capital Markets

      • 1.4.1 The Prudent Monetary Policy Under the “New Normal” Should Be Directional, in Order to Ease and Focus on Active and Effective Presetting

      • 1.4.2 Reasons for “Difficult and Expensive Financing” of the Current Real Economy

      • 1.4.3 Deepening the Reform in Order to Alleviate the Problem of “Difficult Financing and Expensive Financing”; Developing Capital Markets and Promoting the Financial Industry in Order to Serve the Real Economy

  • Economic Growth and Industry Development

  • 2 Analysis and Policy Suggestions for the Economic Trends at Present and in the Middle and Long Term

    • Abstract

    • 2.1 Current Economic Development Trend: Heavier Downward Pressure on the Economy

    • 2.2 Four Possibilities Exist for the Future Economic Trend

    • 2.3 Policy Suggestion: Constructing a New Pattern for China’s Economic Growth

    • 2.4 New Urbanization and the Problem of the Significant Slow-Down of the Economic Growth Rate

    • References

  • 3 Analysis of the Macroeconomic Situation in 2014 and Prospects in 2015

    • Abstract

    • 3.1 Overall Stability in the National Economic Operation

      • 3.1.1 Stable Economic Growth, Concurrence of Slowing-Down and Increasing Demands

      • 3.1.2 Stable Employment and Commodity Price, Steady Growth in Resident Income

      • 3.1.3 Steady and Advancing Economic Operations, Showing a Sign of Active Changes

    • 3.2 Preliminary Prospect of the Economic Situation of 2015

  • 4 Analysis of the “Issues of Agriculture, Farmer and Rural Area” Situation in 2014

    • Abstract

    • 4.1 Agricultural Production

      • 4.1.1 Production of Main Agricultural Products

      • 4.1.2 Agricultural Product Quality

      • 4.1.3 Expected Grain Yield from 2015

    • 4.2 Development of the Factor Market

      • 4.2.1 Transfer of Arable Lands

      • 4.2.2 Rural Labor Mobility

      • 4.2.3 Rural Capital Market

    • 4.3 Farmers’ Income and Welfare

      • 4.3.1 Farmers’ Income

      • 4.3.2 Farmers’ Welfare

    • 4.4 Relationships Need to be Better

      • 4.4.1 The Relationship Between Intensifying Protection and Pioneering

      • 4.4.2 The Relationship Between Perfect Theory and Simple Application

      • 4.4.3 The Relationship Between Climatic and Political Risk

  • 5 Analysis and Policy Suggestion of the Current Industrial Economic Situation

    • Abstract

    • 5.1 Operation Situation of Industrial Economy in the First Three Quarters of 2014

      • 5.1.1 Industrial Production Growth Slumped

      • 5.1.2 Stable Advance in the Industrial Structure Adjustment

      • 5.1.3 Fast Growth in the Western Area, Close Growth Rate Between the Eastern and Central Area

      • 5.1.4 Decline of the Growth Rate of the Investment in the Manufacturing Industry, the High Energy-Consuming Industry Being Lower Than the Entire Manufacturing Industry

      • 5.1.5 Rebound of the Export of Industrial Products and Alleviation of the Downward Pressure

      • 5.1.6 Plummet in the Profits of Industrial Enterprises in the Third Quarter

      • 5.1.7 Strong Momentum for the Integration of Information Technology and Industrialization, Information Consumption Serving as a New Power for Economic Growth

    • 5.2 Transformation in the Growth Dynamic Mechanism that the Industrial Economy Faced at Present

      • 5.2.1 Analysis of How the Three Major Demands Pulled the Industrial Growth

      • 5.2.2 Analysis of the Contribution of Different Production Factors to Industrial Growth

      • 5.2.3 Analysis of the Contribution of Different Industries to the Industrial Economic Growth

    • 5.3 Policy Planning for Promoting Stable and Rapid Industrial Economic Growth

      • 5.3.1 Demand Policy

      • 5.3.2 Supply Policy

      • 5.3.3 Industrial Policy

    • References

  • 6 Predication of the Industrial Growth Rate in 2014 and Analysis and Report on the Industrial Prospect Index and the Early Warning Index

    • Abstract

    • 6.1 Analysis of the Situation of the Industrial Economic Operations

      • 6.1.1 Obvious Decrease of the Growth Rate in the Industrial Production

      • 6.1.2 Continued Slowdown of Industrial Investments and a Proper Growth in the Exports of Industrial Products

      • 6.1.3 Constant Improvement in the Profitability Ability of Industrial Enterprises

      • 6.1.4 Exacerbation of the Conflict Between the Supply and Demand of Industrial Products

      • 6.1.5 Drop in the Industrial Electricity Consumption

    • 6.2 Analysis of the Factors Influencing Industrial Operations

      • 6.2.1 Major Factors Beneficial to Industrial Growth

      • 6.2.2 Major Factors Detrimental to the Industrial Growth

    • 6.3 Analysis of the Composite Index of the Industrial Economic Prospects

      • 6.3.1 The Industrial Coincident Composite Index

      • 6.3.2 Industrial Leading Composite Index

      • 6.3.3 The Composite Index of Industrial Lagging Indicators

      • 6.3.4 Analysis of the Variation in the Industrial Early Warning Index

    • 6.4 Forecast Outcome of the Model and Consensus Forecast

    • 6.5 Analysis of the Industrial Increase Trend and Policy Suggestion

      • 6.5.1 Predicament for the Iron and Steel Industry and the Difficulty in Boosting Raw Material Industry in the Short Term

      • 6.5.2 Continued Drop in the Growth Rate of the Paid-In Investment and Continued Challenges that Faced Industrial Production

  • 7 Consequences of the Labor Market Which Surpassed Growth Capability

    • Abstract

    • 7.1 Introduction

    • 7.2 Indexes of Macro Economy and Labor Markets

    • 7.3 The Connotation and Function of the Natural Rate of Unemployment

    • 7.4 Unduly Rise in the Salary of Ordinary Workers

    • 7.5 From Population Dividends to Reform Dividends

    • 7.6 Conclusion

    • References

  • Macro-economic Policy and Macro-economic Regulation and Control

  • 8 Bottom of Downturn and Economic Transformation and Upgrading—Analysis and Prospect of Economic Situation from 2014 to 2015

    • Abstract

    • 8.1 Increasing Economic Downward Pressure in 2014

      • 8.1.1 Basically Stable Consumer Spending Growth

      • 8.1.2 Rebound of Export Growth from Its Low Level

      • 8.1.3 Continued Decrease in Investment Growth

      • 8.1.4 During the Transition and Adjustment Period of the Real Estate Industry, the Drop in the Growth Rate of the Real Estate Investment was the Major Source of the Economic Downward Pressure

    • 8.2 Bottom of the Rebound of the Economic Growth Rate, and the Difficulties of the Transformation and Upgrading in 2015

      • 8.2.1 Stable Market Demand and the Bottom of the Rebound of the Economic Growth Rate

      • 8.2.2 More Difficult Transformation and Upgrading Tasks

    • 8.3 Combination of Stabilizing Economic Growth and Promoting the Economic Transformation and Upgrading

  • 9 The Influence of the Adjustment of Childbearing Policy on the Potential Growth Rate

    • Abstract

    • 9.1 Predicting and Stimulating the Future with the Potential Growth Rate

    • 9.2 Influence of Potential Dividends on Potential Growth Rate

    • 9.3 Influence of Improved TFR on China’s Potential Growth Rate

    • 9.4 Policy Suggestion

    • References

  • 10 Analytical Prediction of China’s Status of Tax Revenue in 2014 the Preliminary Outlook of 2015

    • Abstract

    • 10.1 Analysis of the Tax Revenue Status in the First Three Quarters of 2014

      • 10.1.1 Analysis of the Quarterly Accumulated Tax Revenue from January to September in 2014

      • 10.1.2 Analysis of the Monthly Tax Revenue Operation in the First Three Quarters of 2014

      • 10.1.3 Analysis of the Tax Revenue Structure in the First Three Quarters of 2014

      • 10.1.4 Analysis of the Tax Revenue Operation of the Major Provinces in the First Three Quarters of 2014

    • 10.2 Characteristics and Influence Factors of the Tax Revenue Operation in the First Three Quarters of 2014

      • 10.2.1 Major Characteristics of the Tax Operation in the First Three Quarters of 2014

      • 10.2.2 Analysis of the Factors that Influenced the Tax Revenue in the First Three Quarters of 2014

    • 10.3 Forecast of the Annual Tax Revenue in 2014 and the Preliminary Prospects of 2015

      • 10.3.1 Annual Tax Revenue Forecast in 2014

      • 10.3.2 Preliminary Prospects of China’s Tax Revenue in 2015

      • 10.3.3 Some Opinions and Suggestions

  • Analysis of Consumption, Investment and International Trade

  • 11 The Trend and Characteristic of Our Economic Development Under the “New Normal”

    • Abstract

    • 11.1 Basic Trends of the Economic Operation Under the “New Normal”

    • 11.2 Basic Requirements of Economic Development Under the “New Normal”

    • 11.3 Implications and Focus of the Economic Growth Under the “New Normal”

    • 11.4 Macro Regulation Ideas Under the “New Normal”

  • 12 Operation of Monetary Finance Under the New Normal

    • Abstract

    • 12.1 Basic Situation of the Financial Operations

      • 12.1.1 Decrease of the Growth Rate of the Money Supply

      • 12.1.2 Moderate Social Financing Scale and Optimized Financing Structure

      • 12.1.3 More Loan Investments and Improved Loan Structure

      • 12.1.4 Downward Market Interests

      • 12.1.5 Two-Way Fluctuations of RMB Exchange Rate

    • 12.2 Attention to a Few Problems in the Financial Operations

      • 12.2.1 Proliferation of Financial Risks

      • 12.2.2 Weakening Credit Demand

      • 12.2.3 Multiple Measures to Solve the Problem of Hard and Expensive Financing

      • 12.2.4 Important Changes in the Investment Channels for the Monetary Base

      • 12.2.5 More Attention to the New Trend of Capital Flow

    • 12.3 Prospect of the Financial Operation in 2015

      • 12.3.1 Making the Monetary Policy More Forward-Looking, Enhancing the Pre-tune and Fine-Tuning

      • 12.3.2 Using Various Monetary Policy Tools to Maintain Macroeconomic Stability

  • 13 Analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Situation in 2014, and Its Prospects in 2015—Also a Discussion on the Priority in Foreign Development in the Transition Period

    • Abstract

    • 13.1 Introduction

    • 13.2 Analysis of the Transformation and Upgrading in Our Foreign Trade in Recent Years

    • 13.3 Analysis of the Import and Export Situation of the World’s Major Markets

      • 13.3.1 Excellent Performance of America’s Major Economic Data and Smooth Trade to America

      • 13.3.2 Higher Probability for Recession in the Eurozone While China’s Trade to Europe’s Recovered

      • 13.3.3 Technological Recession in Japan’s Economy and Minor Bilateral Trade Growth

      • 13.3.4 Sluggish Korean Economic Growth and China’s Trade to Korea’s Surpassed Japan’s

      • 13.3.5 Differentiated Performance of Newly Emerging Economies, Gains and Losses in Import and Export Trade

    • 13.4 Influence of the Global Economic Adjustment on Trade Growth

      • 13.4.1 Adjustment in the Global Economy and Trade

      • 13.4.2 Continued Decrease in the World’s Bulk Commodity Pricing and Emerging Global Deflation Problem

      • 13.4.3 The Supercycle of the Global Economy at the Current End

      • 13.4.4 A New Round of Technological Revolution Still in the Cradle

      • 13.4.5 Weak Recovery for the Global Economy and Insufficient Positive Energy

    • 13.5 Factors Influencing China’s Imports

      • 13.5.1 Influence of a Slowdown in the Domestic Economic Growth Rate

      • 13.5.2 Drop in Imports Commodity Pricing and Growth in Its Quantity

      • 13.5.3 The Overlook of Quantitative Development in China’s Industrial Structure

      • 13.5.4 High Added Value in Our Manufacturing Output

    • 13.6 China’s Foreign Economic Strategy Plan in 2014

      • 13.6.1 Implementation of the Revitalization Plan for the World’s Newly Emerging Economies

      • 13.6.2 New Cooperation with Developed Countries Such as America and Europe

      • 13.6.3 Promoting Asian Development with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Silk Road Fund as the Platforms

      • 13.6.4 Deepening the Reform of the RMB Exchange Rate and Advancing Its Internationalization

      • 13.6.5 Cultivating New Competitive Advantages While Promoting the Internationalization of Strategic Emerging Industries

    • 13.7 The Global Economic Trend in 2015

      • 13.7.1 The Stock Market, the “Leading Index” for Economic Recession

      • 13.7.2 Lowering the Predicted Value of Economic Growth by World-Renowned Institutions

      • 13.7.3 Price Shift in the International Bulk Commodity Pricing

      • 13.7.4 Insufficient Motivation for the Global Economic Growth from the Support of the “Two-Horse Carriage”—China and America

      • 13.7.5 Debt Risks of Newly Emerging Economies

    • 13.8 Prospect of China’s Imports and Exports Situation in 2015

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