Research team Supervisors: Dr Atilla Sandıklı, Dr Cenap Çakmak, Dr Salih Akyürek Advisors: Dr Hasret Çomak, Dr Nurşin Ateşoğlu Güney, Dr Oktay Alnıak Staff: Dr Murat Ustaoğlu, Dr Kürşad Aslan, Dr Emine Akỗada, Dr Bekir ĩnal Authors previous books Çakmak, C., “Amerikan Dış Politikası ve ABD-Çin İlişkilerinde Pragmatizm ve Rasyonalite”, in Geleceğin Süper Gücü Çin: Uzakdoğu’daki Entegrasyonlar ve Şangay İşbirliği Örgütü, edi Sandıklı, A and Güllü, İ., 103–137, TASAM Yayınları, İstanbul, 2005 Çakmak, C., “Irak Savaşı ve Büyük Ortadoğu Projesi”, in Büyük Ortadoğu Projesi: Yeni Oluşumlar ve Değişen Dengeler, edi Sandıklı, A and Dağcı, K., 151–174, TASAM Yayınları, İstanbul, 2006 Çakmak, C., “ABD ve Nükleer İran Krizi: Sorun ne ve nereye gidiyor?, in Satranỗ Tahtasnda ran: Nỹkleer Program, edi Dağcı, K and Sandıklı, A., 99–125, TASAM Yayınları, İstanbul, 2007 ầakmak, C., Iran-Uluslararas Atom Enerjisi Kurumu (UAEK) likileri, in Satranỗ Tahtasında İran: Nükleer Program, edi Dağcı, K and Sandıklı, A., 297–323, TASAM Yayınları, İstanbul, 2007 Çakmak, C., “Human Rights, the European Union and Turkey”, in Rethinking EU Turkey Relations, edi Dağcı, K and Dağcı, G T., 111–134, MV WISSENSCHAFT, Münster, 2007 Çakmak, C., Transnational Activism in World Politics and Effectiveness of Loosely Organized Principled Global Network, VDM Publishing, Munchen, 2008 Çakmak, C., “Simon Bolivar”, in Encyclopedia of the Age of Political Revolutions, edi Bayes, G F., Greenwood Press, New York, 2008 Çakmak, C., “International Law”, in Encyclopedia of Cold War, Routledge, New York, 2008 Çakmak, C., “Role of the Women’s Groups in the Rome Conference”, in Crimes Against Women, edi Pike, D., Nova Publishers, New York, 2010 Çakmak, C., “Male Circumcision and Religious Violence”, in Encyclopedia of Religion and Violence, edi Ross, J., M E Sharpe, New York, 2010 Çakmak, C., “Is There an Armenian Genocide?”, in Popular Controversies in World History, edi Danver, S., ABC-CLIO/Greenwood, New York, 2010 Çakmak, C., “Discussing Ancient Greek Polis as Forerunner of Democratic Government”, in Popular Controversies in World History, edi Danver, S., ABC-CLIO/Greenwood, New York, 2010 Çakmak, C., “İsrail saldırıları ve uluslararası hukukun imkanları”, in Ortadoğu Yıllığı: , edi İnat, K., Ataman, M and Çakmak, C., Küre Yayınları, İstanbul, 2010 Çakmak, C., “İran 2010”, in Ortadoğu Yıllığı: , edi İnat, K and Ataman, M., Küre Yayınları, İstanbul, 2011 Çakmak, C., “Yeni diplomasi, kompleks kỹresel yửnetiim ve sỹpergỹỗle dans: ABD, sivil toplumun artan rolỹ ve Uluslararası Ceza Mahkemesi”, in Kamu Diplomasisi, edi Özkan, A., TASAM Yayınları, İstanbul, 2011 DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0001 Çakmak, C., “Neden Dış Politika? Neden Amerikan Dış Politikası?”, in Yakın Dönem Amerikan Dış Politikas: Teori ve Pratik, edi ầakmak C., Dinỗ, C and Öztürk, A., Nobel, Ankara, 2011 Çakmak, C., Uluslararası Hukuk Ders Kitabı, Ekin, Bursa, 2014 Çakmak, C.,  Yüzyılda Soykırım ve Etnik Temizlik, Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, İstanbul, 2014 Çakmak, C., Suriye’nin Yeniden Yaplandrlmas, BLGESAM Yaynlar, stanbul, 2014 ầakmak, C., Dinỗ, C and Ưztürk, A., Yakın Dưnem Amerikan Dış Politikası: Teori ve Pratik, Nobel, Ankara, 2011 Çakmak, C and Doğan, N Birleşmiş Milletler: BM Sistemi ve Reformu, Siyasal, Ankara, 2014 Çakmak, C., Doğan, N and Öztürk, A., Uluslararası İlişkilerde Güncel Sorunlar ve Tỹrkiye, Seỗkin, Ankara, 2012 ầakmak, C., nat, K and Ataman, M., Ortadoğu Yıllığı: 2009, Küre Yayınları, İstanbul, 2010 Çakmak, C and Öztürk A., “Türk Dış Politikası ve uluslararası hukuk: Türkiye-UCM ilişkileri bağlamında bir değerlendirme”, in  Yüzyılda Çağdaş Türk Dış Politikası ve Diplomasisi, edi Çomak, H., Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli, 2010 Çakmak, C and Öztürk, A., “Jeopolitik, Soğuk Savaş sonrası Avrasya ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Teorileri”, in Dünya Jeopolitiğinde Türkiye, edi Çomak, H., Hiperlink, İstanbul, 2011 Çakmak, C and ve A Uysal, “Ürdün 2009”, in Ortadoğu Yıllığı: , edi İnat, K., Ataman, M and Çakmak, C., Küre Yayınları, İstanbul, 2010 Ustaoğlu, M., “Restructuring the Syrian Economy: Insights on the Post-Conflict Period”, in Reconstruction of The Syria, edi Sandıklı, A and Çakmak, C., Bilgesam Yayınları, İstanbul, Turkey, 2014 Ustaoğlu, M., “Suriye ekonomisinin yeniden yapılandırılması”, in Suriye’nin Yeniden Yapılandırılması, edi Sandıklı, A and Çakmak, C., Bilgesam Yayınları, İstanbul, Turkey, 2014 Ustaoğlu, M., “Analysis of Economic Growth and Financial Structure of Participation Banks in Turkey”, in Islamic Finance Development and Economic Growth, edi Echchabi, A., Effat University Press, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, 2015 Ustaoğlu, M., “Alms”, in Islam: A Worldwide Encyclopedia, edi Çakmak, C., ABC-CLIO/ Greenwood, New York, 2015 Ustaoğlu, M., “Extravagance”, in Islam: A Worldwide Encyclopedia, edi Çakmak, C., ABCCLIO/Greenwood, New York, 2015 Ustaoğlu, M., “Islamic Economics”, in Islam: A Worldwide Encyclopedia, edi Çakmak, C., ABC-CLIO/Greenwood, New York, 2015 Ustaoğlu, M., “Islamic Development Bank”, in Islam: A Worldwide Encyclopedia, edi Çakmak, C., ABC-CLIO/Greenwood, New York, 2015 Ustaoğlu, M and İncekara, A., Islamic Finance Alternatives for Emerging Economies, Palgrave Macmillan, New York, USA, 2014 DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0001 Post-Conflict Syrian State and Nation Building: Economic and Political Development Cenap Çakmak Professor of International Law and Politics, Eskisehir Osmangazi University, Turkey and Murat Ustaoğlu Assistant Professor of Economics, Istanbul University, Turkey DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0001 post-conflict syrian state and nation building Selection and arrangement â Cenap ầakmak and Murat Ustaolu, 2015 Original content © Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies (BİLGESAM), 2014 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2015 978-1-137-53884-0 All rights reserved First published in 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010 Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries ISBN:978-1-137-53885-7 PDF ISBN:978-1-349-71163-5 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available from the Library of Congress A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library First edition: 2015 www.palgrave.com/pivot DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857 Dedicated to Omar and Marwah’s little AWAD DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0001 Contents vi Preface vii Acknowledgments ix About the Authors x Introduction 1 The Arab Spring and the Emergence of the Syrian Crisis 17 Identity, Political System and the Constitution 23 Restructuring the Syrian Economy 43 Restructuring the Security Sector 68 Transitional Justice After the Civil War 78 Foreign Policy Vision 91 Conclusion: Findings and Evaluation 98 References 104 Index 110 DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0001 Preface The popular movements that started in the Middle East in 2011 led to change of regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen; however, the popular uprisings in Syria have not yet brought about a similar change but instead led to a bloody conflict which later turned into a civil war The impacts of this crisis were not limited to Syria; the crisis also had serious global and regional implications as well The urgency of ending this destructive and bloody conflict is obvious for the reason that the crisis turned into a humanitarian tragedy; however, how the state and nation will be built and constructed in the aftermath of this conflict is also a crucial question There are ongoing problems stemming from the improper construction and definition of the state and national identity given that it is unable to address popular demands; the current crisis in Syria confirms that this may lead to serious problems including civil war For this reason, how the state and nation should be constructed remains a crucial matter to avoid similar structural flaws in the future as well To this end, the Wise Men Center for Strategic Research (BİLGESAM) in Istanbul initiated research to investigate the political, economic and military shape of Syria in the aftermath of the conflict and to discuss possible alternatives for a viable definition of national identity and state structure The research was generously supported by the International Civil Society Support and Development Association (STD) Based on the findings of this research, a report on how a national and state identity could be constructed once the civil war is over in Syria was DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0002 vii viii Preface previously submitted to offer a plausible roadmap for nation and state building in this country The report includes policy recommendations for the relevant parties As part of the implementation of the research, workshops were held with the participation of leading figures of the Syrian opposition as well as academics and researchers specializing in Syrian affairs The findings from the workshops were analyzed to reach plausible conclusions that would serve as basis of policy recommendations In addition, in-depth interviews were held with the lead names of the Syrian opposition and Syrian and Turkish academics The opposition leaders and figures stated their objection to the possible participation of representatives of the Syrian regime in the workshops; for this reason, no regime representative took part in the research efforts and works As a result, the Syrian opposition groups were taken as the only focus groups in the researches This book, based on the analysis of the findings in the workshops and interviews, focuses on several issues pertaining to nation and state building in post-conflict Syria including national identity, political regime and separation of powers, making of the constitution, economic reforms, restructuring the security sector, transitional justice and foreign policy vision The study considered the realities of Syria but also referred to international customs and legal rules whenever they were applicable DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0002 Acknowledgments We appreciate the financial support by the funders for the conduct of research as part of the research We also recognize the contribution of BILGESAM and Istanbul University Scientific Research Projects Department and the indispensable contributions by the Syrian opposition figures to the discussions and deliberations DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0003 ix Conclusion: Findings and Evaluation  The findings in the project would lead to the following general conclusions  The most important and significant finding in the project that may surprise many analysts suggest that the opposition groups, despite their internal disagreements and weaknesses, have a strong and solid perspective of a nation and state as well as a coherent democratic future The opposition groups, seeking to create a parliamentary and pluralist regime based on free elections, favor a solution that would enable the representation of all social groups It is possible to argue that the opposition groups have an agreement on this matter Undoubtedly, this agreement and consensus is the greatest assurance for the reconstruction of a strong and stable Syria It should be noted that the attitude of the opposition leaders and representatives is not of general character They offer a democratic and parliamentary regime for which they also provide extensive details The implementation of this vision would take Syria to a different place And the most important factor that would determine the success of this vision is the decisiveness and determination of the opposition figures This determination is expressed in form of a pretty strong message The opposition figures recall that they still fight for the sake of this vision despite ongoing chaos and violence In other words, the opposition groups are still able to express their vision and goals pretty clearly and concretely  Another major finding of the project is on how to build a common national identity The opposition figures have an overall agreement and vision on how they should build a common Syrian national identity The absence of nation building practices in the Middle East will not most probably be experienced in Syria if the vision of the opposition figures is fulfilled Syrians reject the Iraqi and Lebanese models, placing emphasis upon a common Syrian identity The opposition figures, making reference to a religious, racial or ethnic identity, hold that Syrians share a common past and, therefore, they are able to revive a common Syrian national identity The opposition groups view the current regime as an obstacle to attaining such a comprehensive national identity; they rely on a realistic approach and admit the dominant role of Islam and Arab identity in the construction of a national identity The DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0012  Post-Conflict Syrian State and Nation Building opposition figures, viewing the visibility of Islam in politics and social life as necessary and reasonable, uphold that this would serve as a facilitator in the process of nation building Of course, this vision requires patience and determination Historical cases reveal that the process of nation building may take a very long time and that, once it is achieved, it would lead to lasting peace and stability Therefore, the process of nation building in Syria will be dependent on the determination of the opposition groups  The findings suggest that Syrian opposition figures experience ambivalence in foreign policy Referring to the absence of strong support by the international community for their cause, opposition figures fail to offer a clear vision to address this problem This of course has its own internal and inherent reasons A rebel group needs to spend extra efforts to attract the support of international actors In other words, the current regime is already a member of the existing international system A fundamental claim by a rebel group is that that member is no longer legitimate and that it would serve as the alternative to the regime This inevitably requires additional efforts The opposition groups have to prove that the existing member of the international system is not legitimate and that they are capable of replacing that member It is not possible to argue that the opposition groups have performed well to this Therefore, the opposition groups have to prove that the regime is no longer legitimate and that they have the ethical and political ground of legitimacy to replace the regime Unless they so, the opposition groups will not have improved relations with the international actors In the end, they would not be able to attract the international support they would use in their fight against the regime Their failure to attract international support may also be attributed to current circumstances on the international stage and the changing priorities of the Western world as well as limited capacity of the opposition groups in the domain of diplomacy  The approaches of the opposition figures vis-à-vis transitional justice are shaped by how they define the ongoing conflict in Syria The opposition figures who view the conflict as a revolutionary movement rather than a civil war fail to have a unified approach and view on the use of alternative mechanisms to attain social pace Insisting that the culprits should be prosecuted and DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0012 Conclusion: Findings and Evaluation  convicted, the opposition groups offer a hesitant approach towards the establishment of truth commissions and reliance on transitional justice But it is also possible to argue that the opposition groups are not revengeful as evidenced by how they would treat Baath members or pro-regime figures They stress that not all Baath members or pro-regime figures would be considered culprits This is a significant attitude for the sake of attainment of social peace However, it is almost impossible to attain internal peace by relying on regular prosecution methods in a conflict where more than 160,000 people were killed and millions of people had to leave their homes It is not practical and reasonable to prosecute and imprison all the culprits For this reason, the opposition figures need to work on a more comprehensive strategy on this matter  The views and insights of the Syrian opposition figures on how to restructure the security sector are consistent with their views on other matters Aware that it is not practically possible to create a new army, the opposition figures, however, stress that the intelligence agency should be completely abolished as it is seen a major source of the ongoing problems However, it should also be noted that how they would establish ties with the army remains a mystery even if they hold civilian control The strategy of the opposition on this matter remains unclear But roughly, the opposition figures seek to reform the army and make it subordinate to the civilian authority without dramatic changes The same also applies to the police department; however, the military seems a little bit more important because of its institutionalized outlook and its role in previous coups  The economic model the opposition figures promote is also consistent with the general principles of a parliamentary and pluralistic democracy The opposition figures, favoring free-market economy where state control would be kept to a minimum, give the impression that they are now aware they not have to rebuild a whole new economy from scratch In other words, the vision of the opposition figures on the economy is nothing more the expression of generic demands and hopes towards creating a free-market economy They not pay utmost attention to how a free-market economy would be rebuilt and how the relevant institutions to DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0012  Post-Conflict Syrian State and Nation Building achieve this would be created This is actually understandable because the current situation dictates that they should pay greater attention to how they would end the ongoing conflict Therefore, their agreement and consensus over a roadmap of how to restructure the economy in the aftermath of the conflict is a major breakthrough  The opposition leaders and representatives have expressed their views on issues where they have an agreement; to this end, it is possible to argue that despite their diversity, the opposition figures are able to agree on major points of their opposition strategy In other words, they enjoy great internal harmony Where they have disagreements, the opposition figures feel free to express themselves in a very polite and constructive manger This indicates that they not have a major confidence and trust problem This unity could be considered a promising asset for the opposition figures given that construction of a new Syrian identity and nation would be based on this harmony In addition, a united opposition would attract the international community’s attention and support for their struggle Despite this state of consensus among the opposition figures, it is hard to argue that this solidarity guarantees success on the ground Both the media reports and the information from the ground show that the opposition figures fail to act in unity in the diplomatic sphere This is an important handicap and deficiency Unlike expectations, pledges to introduce or enhance democracy would not lead to greater legitimacy in international relations Of course, such a vision would be an asset However, if they want to present themselves as the only representative of the Syrian state in the international political arena, the Syrian opposition has to give the impression that they are acting in unity In other words, what is really important for the other actors of the international community is whether or not the opposition figures are able to represent the Syrian state Of course, reference to democratic ideals and principles may play a role in whether or not they have this capacity Therefore, what really matters is to maintain de facto and legal control It is necessary to form a united front to maintain control Currently, the major problem the Syrian opposition is experiencing is lack of unity among their members in the international political arena It should also be noted DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0012 Conclusion: Findings and Evaluation  that one of the primary reasons for the failure of the ambitious initiative Turkey launched to form an international coalition in an attempt to support the Syrian opposition is lack of unity among the members of the Syrian coalition Currently, some states recognize the Syrian opposition as the only legitimate representative of the Syrian state This is of course important; but the opposition figures need to deepen cooperation and confirm that they are united DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0012 References A Hakan Kara, Musa Orak, “Enflasyon hedeflemesi”, Ekonomik Tartışmalar Konferansı, İstanbul, 2008 Adrien Oster, “Syria’s Army: What the West Will Face in Case of Intervention”, Huffington Post, September 2013 Alain Chouet, “L’espace tribal des Alaouites l’epreuve du pouvoir La désintégration par la politique”, MaghrebMachrek, No 147, 1995, p Alan Greenspan, “Opening Remarks”, Achieving Price Stability: A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Toronto, Canada: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2001 Aleksandra Parteka, Massimo Tamberi, Determinants of Export Diversification: An Empirical Investigation, Working Paper No 327, Ancona: Universita’ Politecnica delle Marche, 2008 Alex Schank, “Sectarianism and Transitional Justice in Syria: Resisting International Trials”, Georgetown University Law Center, 2014, Vol 45, p 557–587 Andreas Beyer, Vitor Gaspar, Christina Gerberding, Otmar Issing, Opting Out of the Great Inflation; German Monetary Policy After the Breakdown of the Bretton Woods, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 14596, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau Of Economic Research, 2008, http://www.nber org/papers/w14596 Andrew G Reiter, Tricia D Olsen, Leigh A Payne, “Transitional Justice and Civil War: Exploring New Pathways, Challenging Old Guideposts”, Transitional Justice Review, 2013, Vol 1, No 1, p 137–169  DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0013 References  Angela Joya, “The Arab State and Neoliberal Globalization: The Restructuring of State Power in the Middle East”, Review of African Political Economy, Vol 38, No 128, p 352–353 Antoni Estevadeordal, Christian V Martincus, Specialization and Diverging Manufacturing Structures: The Aftermath of Trade Policy Reforms in Developing Countries, Development Working Paper No 220, 2006 Atilla Sandıklı, Ali Semin, Bütün Boyutlarıyla Suriye Krizi ve Türkiye, Bilgesam, Rapor No 52, Kasım 2012, p 21 Bassam Haddad, “The Political Economy of Syria: Realities and Challenges”, Middle East Policy, Vol 18, No 2, 2011 Bilgin Ayata, “Turkish Foreign Policy in a Changing Arab World: Rise and Fall of a Regional Actor?”, Journal of European Integration, 2015, Vol 37, No 1, p 97 Birol Akgün, Suriye Krizi’nde Bölgesel ve Küresel Aktörler, SDE, June 2012, p 14 Carlos Coutinho Rodrigues, Francisco José Leandro, Security Sector Reform: A New State-Citizen Partnership, Naỗóo e Defesa, 2012, Vol 131, No 5, p 27–45 Carrie Menkel-Meadow, Cultural Variations in Restorative/Transitional Justice: Process Pluralism, Not One Size Fits All, Legal Studies Research Paper Series No 2014-68, 2014, p 1–25 Ciara O’Loughlin, “Fighting Fire with Fire: Resisting Transition with the Tools of Transitional Justice”, European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR) General Conference, Sciences Po Bordeaux, September 4–7, 2013, p 1–16 Christopher K Lamont, Héla Boujneh, “Transitional Justice in Tunisia: Negotiating Justice during Transition”, Politička misao, 2012, Vol 49, No 5, p 32–49 Clemens Breisinger, Olivier Ecker, Perrihan Al-Riffai, “Economics of the Arab Awakening: From Revolution to Transformation and Food Security”, IFPRI Policy Brief 18, May 2011 Clemens Breisinger, Tingju Zhu, Perrihan Al-Riffai, Gerald Nelson, Richard Robertson, Jose Funes, Dorte Verner, “Global and Local Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Syria and Options for Adaptation”, Climate Change Economics, 2013, Vol 4, No 1, p 1–51 Daniel Brumberg, Hesham Sallam, “The Politics of Security Sector Reform in Egypt”, United States Institute of Peace Special Report 318, 2012, Washington DC, USA, p DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0013  References David A Crocker, “Reckoning with Past Wrongs: A Normative Framework”, Ethics and International Affairs, 1999, Vol 13, p 43 David Kaye, Human Rights Prosecutors? The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, International Justice and the Example of Syria, Legal Studies Research Paper Series No 2012-83, 2012, p Edward Lawrence, Robert Z Lawrence, “South African Trade Policy Matters: Trade Performance and Trade Policy”, Economics of Transition, 2008, Vol 16, No 4, p 585–608 Eleni Andreouli, Caroline Howarth, “National Identity, Citizenship and Immigration: Putting Identity in Context”, Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour, 2012, Vol 43, No 3, p 366 Elizabeth Picard, “Arab Military in Politics: From Revolutionary Plot to Authoritarian State”, The Arab State, Giacomo Luciani (Editor), Routledge, London, 1990, p 192 Erin Daly, “Transitional Justice in Iraq: Learning the Hard Way”, Israel Law Review, 2014, Vol 47, p 63 Faisal Al-Miqdad, “Iraqi Refugees in Syria”, Forced Migration Review: Special Issue; Iraq’s Displacement Crisis: The Search for Solutions June 2007, 2007, p 19–20 Florian Bieber, “Building Impossible States? State-Building Strategies and EU Membership in the Western Balkans”, Europe-Asia Studies, 2011, Vol 63, No 10, p 1786 Frederic S Mishkin, Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Countries, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper Series, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2000 George Irvin, Rebuilding Cambodia’s Economy: UNTAC and Beyond, Working Paper Series No 149, 1993 IMF, Syrian Arab Republic: Selected Issues, Middle East and Central Asia Department, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund Publication Services, 2006 Jamus Jerome Lim, Christian Saborowski, “Export Diversification in a Transitioning Economy: The Case of Syria”, Economics of Transition, 2012, Vol 20, No 2, p 339–367 Jeffrey A Frankel, David H Romer, “Does Trade Cause Growth?”, American Economic Review, 1999, Vol 89, No 3, p 379–399 Julien Gourdon, Nassif Claudia, Is FDI Increasing Export Diversification in MENA?, The World Bank, Washington DC, 2009 DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0013 References  Ken Menkhaus, “Governance without Government in Somalia: Spoilers, State Building, and the Politics of Coping”, International Security, 2007, Vol 31, No 3, p 74–106 Louis-Alexandre Berg, “Guns, Laws and Politics: The Political Foundations of Rule of Law and Security Sector Reform”, Hague Journal on the Rule of Law, 2012, Vol 4, p Mahmut Demirkan, “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde İstihdamın ve Girişimciliğin Geliştirilmesine İlişkin bir Model Önerisi”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2002, Vol 3, No 1, p 35–50 Maria Radziejowska, Awaiting Justice: Prospects for Prosecuting War Crimes in Syria, PISM Policy Paper No 31, November 2013, p Mark Sedra, Geoff Burt, “Security Sector Transformation in North Africa and the Middle East”, The Centre for International Governance Innovation eDialogue Summary Report, August 2011, p 1–18 Mehmet R Kesici, “In High Growth Phase of Turkey Economy Employment and Unemployment”, Industrial Relations and Human Resources Journal, 2010, Vol 12, No 3, p 9–26 Michael Bratton, Eric C C Chang, “State Building and Democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa Forwards, Backwards, or Together?”, Comparative Political Studies, 2006, Vol 39, No 9, p 1060 Mohamed Abdelbasset Chemingui, Sebastien Dessus, “Assessing Non-Tariff Barriers in Syria”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2008, Vol 30–35, p 917–928 Nimrod Raphaeli, “Syria’s Fragile Economy”, Middle East Review of International Affairs, 2007, Vol 11, No 2, p 34–51 Paul Jackson, “Security Sector Reform and State Building: Lessons Learned”, Back to the Roots: Security Sector Reform and Development, Albrecht Schnabel and Vanessa Farr (Editors), LIT Verlag Münster, Berlin, 2012, p 251 Peter Albrecht, Paul Jackson, “State-Building through Security Sector Reform: The UK Intervention in Sierra Leone”, Peacebuilding, 2014, Vol 2, No 1, p 85 Radwan Ziadeh, Power and Policy in Syria: Intelligence Services, Foreign Relations and Democracy in the Modern Middle East, New York, I.B Tauris, 2010, p 24 Raymond Hinnebusch, “Back to Enmity: Turkey–Syria Relations since the Syrian Uprising”, Orient I, 2015, Vol 56, No 1, p 14–22 Raymond Hinnebusch, Syria: Revolution from Above, London, Routledge, 2001, p 82 DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0013  References Rusi Jaspal, Marco Cinnirella, “The Construction of Ethnic Identity: Insights from Identity Process Theory”, Ethnicities, 2011, DOI: 10.1177/1468796811432689, p Ruti Teitel, “Transitional Justice Genealogy”, Harvard Human Rights Journal, 2003, Vol 16, p 6994 Serdar Gỹlener, ầatmac Bir Geỗmiten Uzlamac Bir Gelecee Geỗite Adalet Aray: Geỗi Dửnemi Adaleti ve Mekanizmalarna Genel Bir Bakış”, Uluslararası Hukuk ve Politika, 2012, Vol 8, No 32, p 45 Simon Robins, “Mapping a Future for Transitional Justice by Learning from Its Past”, International Journal of Transitional Justice, 2015, Vol 9, No 1, p 181–190 Stephen D Krasner, Thomas Risse, “External Actors, State-Building, and Service Provision in Areas of Limited Statehood: Introduction”, Governance: An International Journal of Policy, Administration, and Institutions, 2014, Vol 27, No 4, p 545–567 Steven B Redd, Alex Mintz, “Policy Perspectives on National Security and Foreign Policy Decision Making”, The Policy Studies Journal, 2013, Vol 41, No S1, p 11–37 Steven Heydemann, “Tracking the Arab Spring; Syria and the Future of Authoritarianism”, Journal of Democracy, 2013, Vol 24, No 4, p 59 Syria Transition Roadmap, Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies, 2013, p 157 Willemijn Verkoren, Bertine Kamphuis, “State Building in a Rentier State: How Development Policies Fail to Promote Democracy in Afghanistan”, 2013, Development and Change, Vol 44, No 3, p 501–526 Ziad Abdel Tawab, “The Crisis of Transitional Justice Following the ‘Arab Spring’: Egypt as a Model”, 2014, p 95–116, available at http:// www.cihrs.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Transitional-Justice.pdf “Reconstructing Syria After Civil War: State Building”, Workshop held at Wise Men Center for Strategic Research (BILGESAM), Istanbul, February 17, 2014 (Hereinafter BILGESAM Workshop I) (Tapes and transcripts on file with authors) “State Building in Syria After Civil War in Syria”, Workshop held at Wise Men Center for Strategic Research (BILGESAM), May 18, 2014, Istanbul (Hereinafter BILGESAM Workshop II) “Suriye Krizi: AB artan insani yardım ihtiyacı karşısında ilave fon taahhüt ediyor”, EUROPA, January 14, 2014, http://www.avrupa.info DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0013 References  tr/tr/bilgi-kaynaklari/haber-arsivi/news-single-view/article/suriyekrizi-ab-artan-insani-yardim-ihtiyaci-karsisinda-ilave-fon-taahhuetediyor.html (Accessed on June 11, 2014) “Syrian National Convention”, A Draft Constitution of the Syrian Opposition, adopted in Cairo in 2012 “Towards a Comprehensive EU Approach to the Syrian Crisis”, Brussels, JOIN(2013) 22 final, June 24, 2013, http://eeas.europa.eu/statements/ docs/2013/130624_1_comm_native_join_2013_22_communication_ from_commission_to_inst_en_v10_p1_7332751.pdf (Accessed on July 11, 2014) “UN Implicates Bashar al-Assad in Syria War Crime”, BBC, December 2, 2013, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25189834 (Accessed on July 10, 2014) “What Is Transitional Justice?”, International Center for Transitional Justice, http://ictj.org/about/transitional-justice (Accessed on July 9, 2014) DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0013 Index Abdurrahman Mustafa, 29, 31, 34 Afghanistan, 9, 13–16 agricultural, 45–48, 50, 60 Ahmed Toma, 31 al Qaeda, 35, 70 Alawites, 13 Aleppo, 13, 45–46 Amir abu Selame, 29, 34 Arab/Arabs, 6, 18, 28, 30–34 League, 41, 93–96 Spring, 1, 2, 5, 6, 16–19, 21–22, 43–44 Armenians, 6, 28 Assad, Beshar, 43–45, 71 Hafeez, 45, 69–70, 92 regime, 1, 2, Rıfat, 70 Riyad al, 71 Baath party, 6, 27–29, 31–38, 70, 84–85 balance of payment, 47 banks, 45–48, 51–52, 60 Banyas, 47 Bosnia, branches of government, 11 Brazil, 62 Britain, 55 Bundesbank, 60 Butros Bustani, 26 Cameron, 19 central bank, 51–52, 60–63, see also bank  Cevdet Said, 30 Chile, 62 China, 11–18, 21, 88, 93 Christians, 6, 13, 24–28, 32–39 citizen/-ship, 2, 5, 12–13, 26–29, 30–38, 71–76 civil war, 1, 20–27, 33–39, 41–48, 50–58, 80–88 competitiveness, 57, 59–65 constitution, 6, 7, 11, 22–29, 30–39, 40–42 crimes against humanity, 3, 21, 78, 80–88 custom/levies, 45, 50, 62 Czech Republic, 62 Damascus, 13, 45–47, 61, 92–95 Stock Exchange, 45, 61 Darfur, 80–88 Dayton Accords, Defense/Units, 11, 70–71, 92 deficit, 18 balance of payment, 47, 52 budget, 45, 62 Deutschmark, 60 Deyr uz Zor, 47 distribution of power, 6, 11–18, 37 Druze, 6, 27, 36 economic activities, 7, 58 advantages, 49 deprivation, 18 growth, 46–48, 49–56, 60 DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0014 Index economic – Continued performance, 50 policies, 44, 51–58, 65 potential, 46 problems, 19, 43–46, 53–57 reforms, 44, 52–58 relations, 52 resources, 46 stagnation, 51 economy, 7, 9, 18, 22, 43–46 competitive, 44, 50–57, 59–65 liberal, 20, 43–45, 54, 61 local, 52–54, 66, 105 national, 9, 45, 55 process of reforming, 47 pro-state structure of, 45 Syrian, 43–48, 50–58, 60–66 world, 54 Egypt, 2, 11–19, 21–22, 49, 72, 105–108 electoral college, 37–38 districts, ethnic cleansing, 89 EU, 11–16, 50–58, 60, 76, 79–83, 89–97, 104–108 European Central Bank, 60 financial market, 61–65 sector, 51–52, 60 foreign policy, 2, 8, 22, 76, 92–97, 100–108 trade, 45–48, 49–54, 59–62 trade volume, 50 Free Syrian Army, 7, 71–73, 87, 95 GAFTA, 49 Gassan Hitto, 37 GDP, 47, 52 General Intelligence Organization, 70 George Sabra, 28, 32–38, 83, 95 German Mark, 60 Germany, 55–56 Golan Heights, 96 government subsidies, 45 Greece, 56 DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0014  Greenspan, 60–67, 104 growth rate, 45, 49 Gulf Cooperation Council, 93 Halid Hoca, 29, 37, 81 Hezbollah, 7, 31, 76, 92 Hungary, 56 identity Arab, 24–28, 34, 99 ethnic, 29, 41, 99–108 religious, 26–27 IMF, 11–12, 44–45, 52–55, 61–66, 106 industrial, 45–48, 65–67, 107 inflation, 43–47, 53–56, 59–67, 104–106 intelligence, 11–12, 34, 68, 69–76, 101–107 international community, 19, 20–21, 86–87, 89–97 Criminal Court, 79–88 humanitarian law, 85–86 institutions, 55, 87, 95 law, 4, 8, 79–88, 89–96 Iran, 11–13, 21–29, 31–36, 69–76, 92–96 Iraqi Special Court, 80 ISIL, 71–75 Islam, 6, 23–27, 30–38, 99–100 Japan, 55 Jordan, 49–71 judiciary, 7, 11–12, 38, 81–83 Kaddafi, 20 Kemal Erdemol, 34 Kurds, 6, 12–13, 28, 30–36 Latkia, 47 Lebanon, 6, 26, 30–37, 49, 80–82, 91–92 Legal structure, liberalization, 44–48, 49–58 Libya, 2, 7, 9, 17, 20, 49, 73, 80–88, 92 manufacturing, 47, 49–50, 60, 66, 105 martial law, 21 Mediterranean Sea, 46 MENA, 50, 66, 106  Index methodology, 10 Middle East, 18, 20–28, 74–76, 92–96, 99–107 military, 9, 11–19, 40–48, 69–76, 80–88, 92–95 Morsi government, 11 Mubarak, 19 Muhammad Riyad Şukfe, 32 Mukhaberat, 74 Muslim Brotherhood, 6, 11–19, 24–29, 31–36 Muslims, 6, 13, 28, 32–39 National Security Office, 70 Nations/countries developed, 47, 57, 62, 64 developing, 47, 49–57, 59–66, 105 North Africa, 18, 36, 76, 107 Nurnberg Military Tribunal, 79–80 Nusayri, 6, 30, 69–71, 92 Obama, 18–19, 92 Oil net importer of, 45–47, 53 production, 45–47, 56–57 share of, 47, 52, 63–64 Oman, 26, 49 opposition group, 6, 19, 30 parliamentary regime, 11–19, 33–38, 40, 73 peace, 1, 19, 30–35, 69–76, 79–87, 89–96, 100–107 per capita income, 45 PKK, 92 Poland, 62 police, 11–19, 69–73, 101 policy fiscal, 44–48, 54 monetary, 47, 51, 60–67, 104–106 stabilization, 45, 54, 61–62 political developments, 52 islamist group, 6, 27 order, 9, 82 popular uprising, 17–18, 20, 39, 72, 85–87 post-conflict, 5, 7, 9, 25 pre-war period, 44, 53 public administration, 58 economic enterprises, 54 finance, 45, 54 interest, 54 sector, 48, 51, 52, 54, 62, 64 pursuit of justice, quotas, 45, 62 Rafik Hariri, 80 reconstruction of the state, 5, 58 Red Cross, 4, 88 reform outputs, 47 policies, 47, 49–56, 64–65 political, process, 3, 48, 51–56, 60–61 strategies, 47 structural, 44–46 regimes democratic, 5, totalitarian, type, 11 Republican Guards, 70 resources, 7, 45–46, 52–57, 62–67, 93, 107 Rome Statute, 80–88 Rwanda, 79–80 Saddam Hussein, 80 Salafi, 6, 27, 71 Samir Hafez, 81 Saudi Arabia, 11–13, 27 sectarian divide, 4, 25 groups, 4, 5, 23–29, 32–37, 75, 84, 91 minority, 32 model, 26–29, 32 security, 11–16, 32–38, 59–68, 69–76, 79–88, 89–97 separation of powers, 37, 40 Shia Crescent, 92 Shiite, 25, 30 DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0014 Index South Africa, 62–66, 79, 106 South Korea, 55 stability democratic, political, 5, 7, 54–58, 65 state administration, 5, 69 building, 5, 12, 41, 76–77, 106–108 constitutional identity of, federal, owned enterprises, 60 religion interaction, 11 structural problems, 43–44, 84 transformation, 44–48, 49–58, 59–65 Sudan, 49, 88 Sunni, 6, 12, 24–27, 35–37, 71 Syrian identity, 11, 24–29, 30–32, 99–102 National Council, 28 Taiwan, 56 Tokyo Military Criminal Tribunals, 79 Total investment, 45 savings, 45 transitional justice, 8, 79–88, 89–90, 100–108 Treaty of Versailles, 9, 25, 92 Tunisia, 2, 17–19, 21, 44, 49, 84, 95, 105 DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0014  Turkey, 2, 11–13, 21–29, 31–37, 49–52, 67, 91–92 Turkmen, 6, 13, 24–29, 31–34 UN Human Rights Council, UN Security Council, 20, 80–88, 93 unemployment, 18–19, 43–47, 51–57, 59–67 uprising, 1, 17–19, 20–22, 39, 71–75, 85–87, 107 US, 2, 3, 19, 37, 49–58, 60, 71, 87–88, 91–96 USSR, 69 wage, 31, 47, 64 war civil, 1, 20–27, 33–39, 41–48, 50–58, 59–68, 71–78, 80–88, 89–98, 100–108 crimes, 4, 21, 78, 80–88, 89–90, 107 domestic, 21–23, 45, 51–54, 86, 92 first World, post-civil, 8, 33, 44, 53–57, 60 second World, 9, 55, 60, 79–80 World Bank, 11–14, 55–56, 61–66, 106 Yasin Atlıoğlu, 32 Yugoslavia, 56, 79–80 Zeynel Abidin Bin Ali, 18 Zimbabwe, 56 ... also be characterized as a civil war Çakmak, Cenap and Murat Ustaoğlu Post- Conflict Syrian State and Nation Building: Economic and Political Development New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015 doi:... Post- Conflict Syrian State and Nation Building: Economic and Political Development New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015 doi: 10.1057/9781137538857.0006 DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0006   Post- Conflict. .. issues pertaining to nation and state building in post- conflict Syria including national identity, political regime and separation of powers, making of the constitution, economic reforms, restructuring