World economic primacy 1500 1990

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World economic primacy 1500 1990

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World Economic Primacy: 1500 to 1990 This page intentionally left blank World Economic Primacy: 1500 to 1990 Charles E Kindleberger Ford International Professor of Economics, Emeritus Massachusetts Institute of Technology New York Oxford OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 1996 Oxford University Press Oxford New York Athens Auckland Bangkok Bombay Calcutta Cape Town Dar es Salaam Delhi Florence Hong Kong Istanbul Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madras Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi Paris Singapore Taipei Tokyo Toronto and associated companies in Berlin Ibadan Copyright © 1996 by Oxford University Press, Inc Published by Oxford University Press, Inc., 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kindleberger, Charles Poor, 1910World economic primacy : 1500-1990 / by Charles P Kindleberger p cm Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 0-19-509902-8 (cloth) Economic history I Title HC51.K49 1996 330.9—dc20 95-10091 57986 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper In Memory of the Pantheon of Greats (far) under whom I served: Omar N Bradley William L Clayton George C Marshall Allan Sproul This page intentionally left blank Foreword This book by Professor Charles Kindleberger on world economic primacy grew out of a larger, long-term project launched by the Luxembourg Institute for European and International Studies (I E I S.) in 1990 on "The Vitality of Nations." The purpose of this project is to look, using a multidisciplinary and multinational approach, at the issue of the rise and decline of countries The project distinguishes among four analytical stages: assessing, explaining, forecasting, and prescribing Within this project there have been eight major conferences on countries, regions, or specific issues After two conferences in Luxembourg and at Harvard University of a more general character, there have been meetings on specific topics: "The Vitality of Central and Eastern Europe," "The Vitality of Japan," "The Vitality of Britain," and "The Vitality of the Netherlands." Finally there have been two conferences on the topic of books to be prepared in the framework of the project, the first at Harvard, which concerned Professor Kindleberger's book, and which brought together some 40 eminent scholars, above all, economic historians, and a workshop in London prepared by Christopher Coker on "The Decline of the Western Alliance: A Cultural Perspective." In mid-May 1995 there will be a further conference to discuss the work of David Landes, "The Wealth and Poverty of Nations: Why Some Are Rich and Some Poor," to be followed by workshops on "The Vitality of Russia"; "The Vitality of City-States"; "The Significance of Chinese Immigrants in the Vitality of Some Asian Countries"; "The Importance of Nurturing in the Vitality of Nations"; "The Vitality of Spain"; and "The Vitality of Asia: A Cultural Perspective." viii Foreword Professor Kindleberger is the first to write a major study in the context of this project His book ranges from the Italian city-states through the Low Countries and Britain to the United States and Japan During these centuries, there have been times when there was a clear economic leader, and times of uncertainty about world economic primacy His study focuses not just on individual countries, but also on important general and theoretical considerations, e.g., national cycles and successive primacies It addresses important questions about the external as well as the internal causes of decline This book comes out at a time when many people are questioning the future economic leadership, at a moment when the United States remains the only superpower, yet is increasingly less able to impose its political and economic rules; a time when Japan remains an important challenger but seems to be unable to assume the role of world economic leader; when Germany continues to rise yet also remains vulnerable and limited in its global reach; when the European Union appears, despite its plan for an EMU and a CFSP, to be unable to become a decisive player in world politics; and when nobody can say with any certainty where China will stand politically and economically in 15 or 20 years Charles Kindleberger's book provides a brilliant overview of the position of nations in the world economy of the past centuries and also conveys profound insights into the cause for the economic rise and decline of countries A Clesse Director of the I E I S Luxembourg Acknowledgments As always, I have benefited in high degree from scholarly cooperation A number of friends have sent me copies of books they have written or edited: Moses Abramovitz, Rondo Cameron, Rudiger Dornbusch, Barry Eichengreen, Gerald Feldman, Ryutaro Komiya, Henry Nau, Henry Rosovsky, Peter Temin, and Shigeto Tsuru Reprints, draft papers, references, and information have come from Christos Athanas, Carolyn Shaw Bell, Daniel Bell, Paul David, Robert Forster, Robert Gordon, Koichi Hamada, Peter W Klein, Dr Philip LeCompte, Joel Mokyr, Patrick O'Brien, William Parker, Jack Powelson, and Va Nee L van Vleeck A considerably heavier hand was laid on Martin Bronfenbrenner, who read chapter 11 on Japan in draft, but cannot be blamed for my inability to come close to his matchless understanding of the issues in that country Paul Hohenberg read the entire manuscript with a critical eye and encouraged me enormously, especially in failing to criticize some stretches of the early text Karen Smith, a graduate student in history at Harvard, tracked down a slew of elusive references, along with Keith Morgan, the reference librarian of MIT's Dewey Library The conversion of my two-finger typing, replete with strikeovers and illegible insertions, to flawless processed hard copy (if I properly understand the argot) was undertaken at MIT by David Futato, with important help from Emily Gallagher The idea for research on "the vitality of nations" comes from Dr Armand Clesse of the Institute of European and International Studies, Luxembourg The Institute also provided financial support A conference on the notion of the changing economic primacy among nations but not on this book was sponsored at Harvard in May 1994 Each participant, I am sure, knew far more than I about some aspects of what I set forth I hope, perhaps vainly, that not all knew more about all I am most grateful for all this assistance, and hope I have not abused it Bibliography 255 Vanek, Jaroslav 1963 The Natural Resource Content of United States Foreign Trade, 1870-1955 Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press van Houtte, J A 1964 "Anvers." In Citta Mercanti Dottrine nell'Economia Europea dal IV al XVIII Secolo, Saggi in Memoria Gino Luzzato, edited by Amintore Fanfani Milan: A Giuffre, pp 297-319 van Houtte, J A 1967 Bruges: Essai d'histoire urbaine Brussels: La Renaissance du Livre van Houtte, Jan A 1972 "Economic Development of Belgium and the Netherlands from the Beginning of the Modern Era." Journal of European Economic History 1(1) (Spring):100-20 van Klavaren, Jacob 1957 "Die historische Erscheinungen der Korruption." Viertelsjahrschriftfur Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte 44 (December): 289324 van Vleeck, Va Nee L 1993 "Re-assessing Technological Backwardness: Absolving the Silly, Little Bobtailed Coal Car." Unpublished Ph.D dissertation, University of Iowa Vergeot, J.-B 1918 Le credit comme stimulant et regulateur de I'industrie: La conception saint-simonienne, ses realizations, son application au probleme bancaire d'apres-guerre Paris: Jouve Vernon, Raymond 1966 "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle." Quarterly Journal ofEconomics 80(2) (May):190-207 Veseth, Michael 1990 Mountains of Debt: Crisis and Change in Renaissance Florence, Victorian Britain and Postwar America New York: Oxford University Press Vial, Jean 1967 L'industrialization de siderurgie franfaise, 1814-1864 Paris: Mouton Vicens Vives, Jaime 1952 (1967) Approaches to the History of Spain Translated and edited by Joan Connally Ullman Berkeley: University of California Press Vicens Vives, Jaime 1970 "The Decline of Spain." In The Economic Decline of Empires, edited by Carlo M Cipolla London: Methuen, pp 121-67 Vilar, Pierre 1969 (1976) A History of Gold and Money, 1450-1920 London: New Left Books Ville, Simon, ed 1993 Shipbuilding in the United Kingdom in the Nineteenth Century: A Regional Approach Research in Maritime History no St Johns, Newfoundland: International Maritime Economic History Association et al Volcker, Paul A and Toyoo Gyohten 1992 Changing Fortunes: The World's Money and the Threat to American Leadership New York: Times Books Wagner, Adolph 1879 Allgemeine oder theoretische Volkswirtschaftslehre Leipzig and Heidelberg: C F Verlagshandlung Walker, Mack 1964 Germany and the Emigration, 1816-1885 Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press Walker, Mack 1971 German Home Towns: Community, State and General Estate, 1648-1871 Ithaca, N.Y., and London: Cornell University Press Wallerstein, Immanuel 1980 The Modern World-System II: Mercantilism and the Consolidation of the European World-Economy, 1600-1750 New York: Academic Press Wallerstein, Immanuel 1982 "Dutch Hegemony in the Seventeenth-Century World-Economy." In Dutch Capitalism and World Capitalism, edited by Maurice Aymard Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp 93-145 Walter, Norbert 1990 "Frankfurt Financial Centre Challenged by 1992." In 256 Bibliography Financial Institutions in Europe under New Competitive Conditions, edited by Donald E Fair and Christian de Boisseu Dordrecht/Boston/Lancaster: Kluwer, pp 145-57 Weber, Eugen 1976 Peasants into Frenchmen: The Modernization of Rural France, 1870-1914 Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press Wedgwood, Julia 1915 The Personal Life ofjosiah Wedgwood London: Macmillan Wiener, Martin J 1981 English Culture and the Decline of the Industrial Spirit, 1850-1980 Cambridge: Cambridge University Press Wijnberg, Nachoem M 1992 "The Industrial Revolution and Industrial Economics." Journal of European Economic History 21(1) (Spring):153-67 Williams, E E 1890 Made In Germany 2nd ed London: Heinemann Williams, E N 1970 The Ancien Regime in Europe: Government and Society in the Major States, 1648-1789 New York: Harper & Row Williamson, Jeffrey G 1991 "Productivity and American Leadership." Journal of Economic Literature 39(1) (March):51-68 Wilson, C H 1939 (1954) "The Economic Decline of the Netherlands." In Essays in Economic History, edited by E M Carus-Wilson Vol London: Arnold, pp 254-69 Wilson, Charles 1941 Anglo-Dutch Commerce and Finance in the Eighteenth Century Cambridge: Cambridge University Press Wilson, R G 1971 Gentlemen Merchants: The Merchant Community of Leeds, 1700-1830 Manchester: Manchester University Press Wojnilower, Albert M 1992 "Heresies Acquired in Forty Years as an Economics Practioner." Pamphlet, First Boston Asset Management Wood, Christopher 1992 The Bubble Economy: Japan's Extraordinary Boom in the 1980s and Dramatic Bust in the 1990s New York: Atlantic Monthly Press Woodham-Smith, Cecil 1962 The Great Hunger: Ireland New York: Harper & Row Woolf, S J 1968 "Venice and Terra Ferma: Problems of the Change from Commercial to Landed Activities." In Crisis and Change in the Venetian Economy in the Sixteenth and Seventeenth Centuries, edited by Brian Pullan London: Methuen, pp 175-203 Wright, H R C 1955 Free Trade and Protection in the Netherlands, 1816-1830: A Study of the First Benelux Cambridge: Cambridge University Press Wylie, Laurence 1957 Village in the Vaucluse Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press Yamazawa, Ippei 1991 "The New Europe and the Japanese Strategy." Revista di Politica Economics 81(3) (May):631-53 Young, Arthur 1790(1969) Travels in France during the Tears 1787, 1788 and 1789 Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday Anchor Book Zamagni, Vera 1980 "The Rich in a Late Industrializer: The Case of Italy, 18001945." In Wealth and the Wealthy in the Modern World, edited by W D Rubenstein New York: St Martin's Press, pp 122-66 Zunkel, Friederich 1962 Der Rheinische-Westfalische Unternehmer, 1834-1879: Ein Beitrag zur Geschichte des deutsche Burgertum im 19 Jahrhundert Cologne and Opladen: Westdeutsche Verlag Index Abramovitz, M., 98, 115 Adams, J Q., 221n Adenhauer, K., 168 agency problem, 56 Age of Discovery, 68 Aging, of Germany, 170-71 symptoms of in United States, 190 Agriculture, 26-27 French farmer riots, 124 new crops, 118 rural exodus, 123 slow release of manpower, 11819 Alpine passes, 55 Alva, Duke of, 78 Amsterdam, compared to Venice, 31 stores of commodities, 41, 91 Anglo-Dutch wars, 44, 46, 92 called "naval scuffles," 215 fourth as coup de grace, 215 Antwerp, 87-89 arbitristas (Spanish reformers), 81, 223 aristocratic values, 119, 120, 216 Armada, Spanish, 72, 76 Armada de la Guardia, 76 Arsena-le (Venetian), 30, 55 decline of, 64 artists, Venetian, 58 Ashton, T S., 130 asientos (Spanish bills of exchange), 76-77 assertiveness, German, 169-70 Japanese, 208 association, spirit of, lack of in France, 122 asylum, provided to refugees, by Dutch, 55 Augsburg, Italian merchant population, 58 Australia, Japanese investments in, 201 Ayr bank failure, 58 Bagehot, W., 136 balance of international indebtedness, U.S., 181 balance-of-payments deficit, U.S., 181-82 basic balance, 185 257 258 bank concentration, 39 40 bankers of Tuscany, 59 bankers, German See German, bankers in Europe Bank of Amsterdam, 92, 97, 102 Bank of England, 98, 111, 136 Bank of France, 111, 117-18, 137, 187 Bank of Japan, 192-93, 206 banks after 1870, 40 German in 1850s, 155 Japanese, 193 U.S., 182 Banque Royale, 108 Barbigo, Andrea, 57 Barcelona, 74 Baring brothers, 135 bashing of the Dutch by the British, 44 beauty, as source of innovation, Berry, B J L., 47-49 Besan9on, Italian fair removed to Piacenza, 61 Beuth, P., 153 bills of exchange, 28, 61 Bismarck, O von, 134, 150, 155 Black Death, 56 Black Ships of Commodore Perry, 173, 191 Boer war of 1890, 137, 158 bottlenecks in economic development, 132, 140 bourse in Bruges, 85 Braudel, F., 4, 7-8, 14, 24, 34, 36, 38, 45, 57, 60, 66, 78, 87, 105, 127, 132 view of Dutch commerce attacked by J Israel, 91 Brazil, Dutch failure to drive out Portuguese, 70 gold discovery in, 1680, 42 breakdown in France between World Wars, 122-23 Brenan, G., 34, 68 Bright, J., 133 British, as challengers of Dutch, 43-44 decline in imperial role, 140-41 Index economy compared with Dutch, 126-27 economic decline, 137 ff entrepreneurs in nineteenth century, 140, 143 estimates of economic growth 1700-1830, 130 inventors as amateurs, 131, 143^4 lending to the Continent, 135 overseas lending as contributing to industrial declines, 135-36 policies characterized, 148 "take-off," 128 trade, 127-29 trading corporations, 128 Bruges, 84-87 as intermediary between Britain and Champagne fairs, 84 decline of, 85-87 lack of shipping, 20 Briining, H., policy alternatives for Germany in 1931, 164 bubble, in gold, 188 in Japanese real estate and stock prices, 190, 202, 206 in U.S real estate, 188 bulk goods in trade, 21 bullion famine of fifteenth century, 215 Bund (German federation), 151 Bundesbank, 40, 187 bureaucracy, German in nineteenth century, 152 Spanish in seventeenth century, 75 Burke, E., 130 cadasters, to establish private ownership of land, 30-31 Cadiz, 74-75 Calvinist doctrine of thrift, 32 Canada, French loss to British, 111 Rowell-Sirois Report on Dominion-Provincial Relations, 219 canals, 22 Duke of Bridgewater, 129 Index canalization failure, Bruges, 86 capital, moral, 184 capital flight as French middle class strike See middle class capital flows in U.S balance of payments, 185-87 restraints on, 186 caravan routes, Indian ocean to eastern Mediterranean, 69 Cardwell's law, 25-26, 217 Carlos III of Spain, 81 Carrera de la Indias, 76 Cartel des Gauches, 124 cartels, German, 159 Casa del Contratacion, 75 Castile, 73-74 Catalonian resilience, 81 "catching up," 3, 38-39, 174 causes of decline, 34-35, 36, 21420 of Bruges, 85-87 of Dutch, 102-4 of French, 112 industrial in Britain, 137-43 of Spanish, 78-79, 80-82 centering and decentering in world economy, 7, 45-46 Centralization vs pluralism, 39—41, 213,218-20 Dutch tension between, 40, 213 French railroad design, 117 issue in Germany, 160, 213 central-place theory, 39 Central Planning Bureau of the Netherlands, 17-19 challenge, German to British primacy, 158, 160 Champagne fairs, 58-60, 61, 105 chaos theory, 8, 11 Chaptal, Count, 113 Charles I of England, 107 Charles V of Spain (Charles I of Spain), 72 Charles VIII of France, 105 Chartists, 217 Chenin du Per du Nord, borrowing in London, 135 chemistry, German, French, 113 Chevalier, M., 22, 116, 117, 182 Child, Sir J., 43-44, 92,93 259 Cipolla, 1, 15, 15n cities, planned on the Atlantic, 107 city-states, efficiency of, 218 Italian, 54-66 Venice, Genoa as republics, 65 City of London, 29 Clesse, A., viii, ix "coal" as proxy for resources, 19 Dutch lack of coal, 95 trade as nursery for British seamen, 128 Coase theorem, 10, 134 Cobden, R., 133 Cobden-Chevalier treaty of 1860, 133,154 coffee, movement of cultivation to Far East and Brazil, 71 Colbert, J.-B., 24, 107-8 Colm-Dodge-Goldsmith report, 167 colonies, German interest in, 157 Columbus, Christopher, 10, 61, 72, 215 commercial revolution, 55 commodity speculation, Dutch, 9697 commodity stocks in Amsterdam, 91 Compagnie d'Occident, 108 complexity vs mono-causality, concentration camps, 165n conspicuous consumption, 32 Dutch, 90, 102 Italian city-states, 63, 67 and life cycle hypothesis, 179-80 in seventeenth-century Britain, 215 in Spain, 78 Continental System, 113 Constitution of 1848, German, 154-55 cooperations and rivalry, 41-43 Corn Laws, repeal of, 133-34, 155 corruption, 184, 214 in Japan, 206 cottage industry, 23 Counter-Reformation, 80 counterfactual, 37 to U.S decline, 190 crash of 1920, Japan, 192 260 Credit Mobilier, 117-18 criminals, financial, 184 Crusades, the, 54 "culture," as basis of economic growth, 19 Cuno, W., 161 currency, vehicle, 188 cycles, 14-15 France as exception to, 105 national, 14-36 Datini, F de M., 60 David, P., 26, 33, 135 Dawes plan, 105 loan success, 163 debt Dutch, 99-100, 127 government, 180-81 Italian, 66 U.S., household, 179 decentralization, characteristic of Holland, 90 northern Europe, 84 decline of Britain, 137 ff of Bruges, 85 ff of Spain, 73 ff of United Provinces, 106 ff in U.S., 190 ff Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA), 178 deficits U.S., 180 R Eisner's view of, 181 DeGaulle, C., veto of British in EEC,169 on gold, 187-88 Delbruck, R von, 157 Deutsche Bank, 46 deutsche mark, 167, 168 DeVries, Jan, 97 direct foreign investment, Japanese, 200-01 direct trading, avoiding Amsterdam, 93 British and Dutch ships in Mediterranean, 62 in foreign exchange, 98, 160 Dissenters as British entrepreneurs, 131-32 Index distant trade, 21-23 distributional coalitions, 32, 143, 185,217 dollar, 187-88 floating of, 198 dominance, 13 Don Quixote, 71 "Dover road" for shipping Spanish silver, 76 "draperies, new," 65, 86, 127 Dutch, banks in London, 97-98 "disease", 79, 214 East India Company, 29, 40, 69, 90, 92, 98 primacy in world trade, 92 ff dynamic model, of growth, 140 of continuous trade surplus or deficit, 181-82 earthquake of 1923, Japan, 192-93 East India Company (British), 29, 69 East India Company (Dutch) See Dutch, East India Company economic primacy, 12-13 Economic Rehabilitation in Occupied Areas (EHOA), 194 Edict of Nantes, revocation of, 10708 Education See technical education Dutch, 98-99 English, 145-46 French, 114-15 German, 153 United States, 189-90 Ehrenberg, R., 87, 88 Emigration, attempt to restrict of British, 109 of Dutch workers, 94, 99 from Germany, 155-56, 158 from Spain to Spanish America, 78 of Italian sailors, 66 Emmott, B., 205, 209 empire, preference in tariffs, 134 emulation as economic incentive, 89 Engel's law in consumption, 143 261 Index Encounter, 147n Enlightenment, 31, 114 French infiltrating Spain, 81 Erzberger, M., 151, 162, 163, 213 Eurodollar market, 186-87 European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), 168 Current Unit (Ecu), 187 Economic Community (EEC), 168 Britain admission, 169 Monetary System (EMS), 147 Payments Union (EPU), 167, 227 Union, viii "events of May and June, 1968" (in France), 124, 168 exchange rates, at Bruges, 88 direct between London and St Petersberg, 98 German practice, 160 pound sterling depreciation, 147 Exhibition of 1867, in Paris, 135 export of machinery, British ban on, 109, 132 export trade, Japanese, 196 ff "failed transitions" to industrialization, 82 fairs, 28, 59-61 of Bruges, Antwerp, 86 family, French extended, 121 Federal Reserve easing monetary policy in 1970 and 1971, 187 Federal Reserve System, 40 federal structure, Swiss, 40 Ferdinand and Isabella, 14, 72, 86 Finance, 27-28 British, 135-37 government, 28-31 Italian, 66-67 shift from trade to, Bruges, 85 United Provinces, 93 financial institutions, lag of French behind British, 110-11 financial leadership, passing from London to New York, 140 financial revolution in Britain, 28 in United Provinces, 95-96 financiers and officiers, 28, 112 fiscal reform, in France (failed), 112 in Britain, 133 fishing, Dutch, 89 ff Florence, 59-60 fluyt (Dutch flyboat), 94 Fondaco dei Tedeschi (German "nation" in Venice), 59 forces making for and resisting growth, 1850-1950 Britain, 144-45 France, 120-21 foreign direct investment in Britain, 137 Japanese, 200-201 fortunes, 27 France, demographic discontinuity, 123 economic breakdown between world wars, 122-23 as equal in income per capita to England in eighteenth century, 109 as perennial challenger, 105-24 Franco-Prussian war, 119, 151 Frankfurt-am-Main, 19, 147, 152 "free riders," 40 free-trade, "imperialism," 134 movement in Europe, 134, 15657 French growth trade dependent in eighteenth century, 110 indemnity after Waterloo, 135 inventions of machines, 116-17 recruitment of foreign workers, 24, 107 revolution of 1789, 81, 112-13; of 1848, 135 taxation, 112 Freyre, G., 24 Fronde, French social disorder of 1640s, 106-07 frugality, Dutch, 90 Fuggers, Augsburg bankers, 62, 88 futures, trading in Amsterdam, 96 G-7 summits, 227 gambling, 32, 78, 96, 184 gas, North Sea, 79 262 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), 173 Japanese joining, 196 Genoa, 60-62 loss of intermediary function, 62 Genoese bankers and Spanish silver, 62 businessmen, 61 German, attitude toward Britain, 158-59 bankers in Europe, sixteenth century, 88 battle for place in sun, 43, 150 borrowing in 1930s, 163 economic miracle, 156, 167-68 fading, 190 economists in 1919-1923 inflation, 161-63 in 1931 debate, 164 inferiority complex, 155, 158, 161,161n monetary reform in 1948, 167 political homicides, 151 rivalry with Britain, 158-59 in finance, 160 success in new industries, 159 Germany, in Europe, 168-70 mosaic, 161 overtaking England, 149-51, 159-61 Gerschenkron, A., 5, 16, 165 Getverbefoerderun0 (industrial policy), 153-54 Gewerbefreiheit (freedom of occupation), 154 Glorious Revolution of 1688, 97 glorious years, thirty, in France, 118,124 glory, French preoccupation with, 8, 114 Goguel, I J A., 98, 103 Gold, bubble in gold price, 188 coinage in Genoa, Florence, 61 Dutch lack of Midas touch, 97 window closed in 1971, 188, 198 Gold standard left by Britain in 1931, 164 Index Japanese adoption, 1930, 193 as sterling standard, 136 Golden Age, 1950-73, 224 British, 147n, 148 Dutch (17th century), 90 German, 168 Spanish (1479-1596), 72 U.S., 174, 188 Goldstein, J., 47-49 Goldstone, J A., model, applied to France, 105-6, 108, 112, 122 Gompertz curve See S-curve Gouin, G., 116 Government and Relief in Occupied Areas (GARIOA), 166, 194 "government" in Japanese balance of payments, 194-95 government tasks, 29-30 grancles ecoles (higher French technical schools), 114-15, 116 Gras, N.S.B., 25, 67, 129 Greater East Asia Prosperity Sphere, 193 Great Exhibition of 1851, 131-32 Great Depression of 1930s, 163-64, 174 Gresham, Sir T., 88 gross national product, 1870-1913, indexes for five countries, 192 Grtinderzeit (time of formation of German Reich), 156 boom, 160 guilds, 27, 118 in German "home towns," 15253 Venetian, 65 Hamada K., 194, 195, 205, 206 Hamilton, E.J.,68, 77, 81 Hanseatic cities, 152 Hanseatic League, 21, 41, 83-84, 128, 150 hatred, widespread in Germany, 151 Hawley-Smoot tariff, 173 hegemony, 13 Helfferich, K., 163 herring, Dutch fishing for, 89 hidalgos (lesser Spanish gentry), 73 Index hierarchical ordering, of banks, 39 of international monies, 41 Hitler, A., 161, 165 Hochschulen (German technical schools), 115 Holland, 89-104 as leading Dutch province, 90 commerce, 91-93 education, 98-99 finance, 95-98 industry, 93-95 migration, 99 taxation, 100-01 timing of decline, 100-3 wages, 100-101 Holy Roman Empire, 30, 88 Hope, J., 102 Hotel de Ville, Paris, 29 housing costs, Japan, 205 Huguenots, 24, 29, 107-8 as German merchants, 152 human life cycle compared with national, 6, 210-11 "Hume's law," 133 Huntington, E., 52-53 Huskisson, W., 132-33 immigration, of Dutch refugees and intellectuals, 99 of Dutch seasonal workers, 99 of labor into Spain, 79 of refugees and guest workers into Germany, 168 into U.S., 173 income per capita, French and English compared, 1700, 1789, 111-12 "Indianos," Spaniards returning from Americas, 78 industrial policy, 221 French, 107 industrial revolution, 11, 25, 129-32 industry, 23-24 Dutch, 93-95 Japanese, 195-99 inflation German, 1919-23, 161-63 Spanish, 77-78 263 Inquisition, the Portuguese, 70 Spanish, 72 Inspection des Finances, 164 Institute for European and International Studies, vii, "interlopers" in Spanish trade with South America, 75, 92 intermediary trade, between Germany and Levant via Venice, 55 Amsterdam's loss of, 93 Venetian loss of, 63-64 international currency, reluctance of Japan and Germany to serve, 45,187 international organizations and world economic order, 226 inventions in industrial revolution, 130-32 inventors, amateur in Britain, 13132 investing in reputation, 56 investment, Japanese in Australia, 201 irrigation in Spain, 74 Israel, J., 91, 92, 126 Italian city-states, 54-67 Japan, defeat of Russian navy, 141, 192 and Korean War, 194-95 military aggression, 193 monetary reform, 194 rising strength of, 27 U.S assistance to, 194 wartime casualties, 193 Jefferson, T., 182, 21 In Jews, expulsion from Spain, 24 in German holocaust, 168, 168n merchants in Germany, 152 JCS 1067 (Morgenthau plan for postwar Germany), 105-6 Junkers, 33, 150-51, 157, 165 juros (Spanish government bonds), 77 karoshi (working oneself to death, Japanese), 202 Kasuya, M., 194, 195,205 264 Kennedy, P., 52, 216 Keynes, J M., 75n, 140, 161-62 keiretsu (Japanese conglomerate), 199,202-03 King, G., 109 Klein, P W., 90, 91, 100,183 Komiya, R., 195-99, 203 Kondratieff cycle, 47-50 Xowfcw (Hanseatic counting houses), 83-84 Korean War, and German balance of payments, 167 impact on Japan, 194 Krupp steel company, 156 land ownership as unstimulating, 33 purchases by successful businessmen, 132 Lane, F C., 55, 57-58, 64, 66 Lautenbach, W., 164 Law, J., 108-9, 112 "law of interrupted progress," 37 "leapfrogging," 38-39 Leghorn (Livorno), 60, 62 Lepanto, battle of, 47, 58, 72 Lewis (Sir Arthur) model of growth with unlimited supplies of labor, in Germany, 168 in Japan, 195 in U.S., 173 life cycle, compared to human, 6, 210-11 national, 14-36,210 location, advantages, of Dutch, 89 of Spanish, 72 as a resource, 19 locomotive production, Germany, 153 logistic curve See S-curve London as financial center, 135-36, 140, 147 Louis XIV, 30, 39, 107-8 Low Countries, 83-104 Luddites, 217 Luther, H., 164 luxury goods, trade in, 21, 91 Index MacArthur, D., 194, 195 machinery, smuggling into France, 110,117 "Made in Germany," 138 Madrid, as parasitical city, 74 Malthusian model, 11 marketing, British weakness in, 159 Marks of Origin Act, 138 Marranos (Jews) expulsion from Spain, 70, 72 Marshall, A., 83, 90, 129, 181 Marshall, G C., 166 Marshall of Leeds, 116, 137 Marshall Plan, 166-67, 222 McKinley tariff, 137 McNeill,W H., 11,52 Medici bank, 60, 67 branch in Bruges, 85 Medina del Campo (Spanish fair for wool), 73-74 Mediterranean, entry of Dutch and British ships in 1590, 57 trade, 54-55 Meiji restoration, 192 mentalites (values), 17, 32-34 French, 119, 121-22 Mercantilism, 107-08 Merchant Adventurers, 59, 128 merchants, as inhibitors of innovation, 142 foreign in Spain, 22, 79-80 lack in Germany, 22, 152 sedentary vs traveling, 21, 56 Mesta, (Spanish wool-growing organization), 73-74 Methuen, treaty of, 42, 71 metrology See weights and measures middle class, as force for social cohesion, 184-85 strikes in France, 124, 224 migration, 24-25 from Brabant and Flanders to Holland, 99 within Germany, 156, 158 Milan, 62-63 Ministry of Trade and Industry (MITI), Japan, 197, 199, 207-08 Index Mississippi bubble, 108-9 Modelski, G., 48-50 Mokyr, }., 25-26, 129, 131, 217 monetary leadership, disguised, British as gold standard, U.S as Bretton Woods system, 227 money, standard, as public good, 28 monopolies, 10 invasion of those of others, 44 Montesquieu, C L de S., 34, 102 Moors, expulsion from Spain, 24, 72 Moors, "White," Genoese as, 80 Moriscos See Moors "mother trade" (bulk goods carried from Baltic to Amsterdam), 91 Mun, T.,43, 90, 215 Napoleon I, 113,151 Napoleon III, 117 "nations" (groups of foreign merchants), in Bruges, 84, 86 Navigation Acts, British, 30, 44, 92, 128 repealed, 133-34, 154 Venetian, 58, 66 Necker, J., 112-13 "New Christians" (Portuguese Jews forcibly converted), 70 new draperies, British, 86, 127 new firms in postwar Japan, 194 new men, 27, 32 in France, 118, 123 in Germany, 167 New York, as financial rival of London, 42, 137 Nixon sbocku, 198 nobility, 19 nontariff barriers (NTBs), 199, 226 oligarchies, in trading cities, 19, 95 Olson, M., 32, 52, 143, 150, 185, 213 options as " Windbandel" (trade in air), 96 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 226 Working Party No of, 227 265 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), 178, 198,225 "orgware," 203-4 Ostpolitik (West German policy), 169 over-foreignization, 174 overstretch, 3, 9, 214, 216 overtaking of one national economy by another, 44 of Britain by Germany, 149, 159— 61 Paris as financial center, 136-37 and ambitions, 147 patents in Britain, 130-31 path dependency, 9, 26, 112, 14243 payments, equilibrium in balance of, 185-86 Pax Neerlandica, 38 peat, Dutch supplies, 95 penalty of the headstart, 141 pepper trade, 64, 69 Philip II of Spain, 72 ff "Phoenix effect" of recovery from war, 32, 35 Piacenza, Besancon fair at, 61 Pirenne, H., 8, 20 planning, French, 124 plant disease in France, 119 plant visits by French in Britain, 115-17 Plaza accord, 206 pluralism, 39-41 polarization, in Genoa, 62 in U.S., 184-85 policy, governmental, 17, 36, 220-23 British, 148 U.S., 188-90,221 political unity, 222 population See agriculture, rural exodus Antwerp, 87 change in France in World War II, 123 French and British compared in 1800,109 net reproduction rate in France, 1935-1959, 123 266 population (continued) proportions engaged in agriculture, Britain and France, 111 ports, location of, 19 silting of, 22, 86 Portugal, 68-71 as center of world economy, 70 Portuguese Catholic church, in Asia, 69 in Japan, 191-92 Portuguese success, as colonizers, 70 as traders, 69 Potosi (Peruvian silver mountain), 61,72,215 Potsdam agreement, 166 price revolution, 77 prices, Spanish, 77 pride, Spanish, 24, 34, 80 primacy, defined, 12-13 privateering, 30 Huguenots in, 107 productivity, and balance of payments, 181-82 decline in U.S., 27, 175-78 and downsizing, 175 in U.S corporations, 178 progression from trade to industry to finance, 88, 96, 182, 21213 prosperity circle, 18 prowess, French, 121 public works, 29-30 purchasing-power parity, 182 quality control Dutch, 92 Japanese, 197 railroads, British, 132-33 and size of coal cars, 141-42 Rathenau, W., 151, 162 Reagan, R., program of tax reduction, 179 real estate, Japanese bubble in, 188, 204 recentering of world economy after decline of a center, 45 Index Reform bill of 1832, 133 Regents (Dutch), without occupation, with country house, 101-2 "regimes" in international organization, 33, 225 ff regional basis for world economic order, 226-27 Reichsbank, debate in 1931, 16465 rents, rent-seeking, 183 reparations, German, after World War I, 162 resilience, economic, 34 on part of U.S.,224 resource-based exports of U.S., 175 Resources, 19-20 abundance of, U.S., 172-73 limited, of Japan, 190 limited, of Spain, 73-74 retirement from trade and industry, 27-28 river crossing as city sites, 19-20 Rosencrance, R., and need for spark to arouse U.S energy, 22223 Rostow, W W., 5, 16, 17n, 46, 174 Royal Commission on Technical Instruction, 145-46 Royal Navy, 30 sailors and oarsmen, supply of in Italy, 56, 61,64, 65, 75-76 Saint-Simon, C H de V (Count), 117 Saint-Simonism, 117 "salarymen," in Japan, 202 Savings, in the industrial revolution, British, 130 Dutch, 96 Japanese, 204-5 U.S., 179-81 and U.S tax reduction, 179 Scandinavian response to repeals of Corn Laws, timber duties, Navigation Acts, 134 Schama, S., 4, 90 ff., 189, 222 Scheldt estuary, blockade, 88 Schimmelpennick, R J., 103 Schumpeter, J A., 10, 213 Index "Sea Beggars" attack on Brill in 1572,88 seamen, Italian, 66 Portuguese, 69-70 Security Council of U.N., seats for Germany, Japan? 169, 208 S-curve, 6, 15-17 Servan-Schreiber, J.-J., 5, 174 Seville, 74 ff shares, Japanese bubble in, 206-7 Ship money, British tax, 128 ship technology, 22, 55, 197 shipbuilding, British, 139 decline of, 58, 64 Dutch, 94 Japanese, 197 Spanish on peninsula, 75-76 Venetian, 55 on west coast of South America, 76 shipping, Bruges and Antwerp, lack of, 20, 87 Dutch, 95 French replacing Dutch in North trade, 93, 110 Genoese, 61 German rivalry with British, 15960 Spanish, 74-75 collapse of, 76 Venetian, 63-64 decline of, 65-66 shipowners, 20 Siemens, G von, 43, 160 silk, role in Japanese economy, 198 silver, Spanish, 76-77 silversmiths, Seville, 78 Sino-Japanese wars, 192, 193 Smith, Adam, 8-9, 17, 21, 27, 29, 32,33,57,93, 127,128, 129,183 Smith, C S., 23 "social capability," 3, 31-32 "social innovation," 18 Sonderweg (unique German path), 211 South Sea bubble, 108 267 Soviet Union, collapse of, 180 Spain, 72-82 failed transition to industrialization, 82 location, 72-73 north-coast ports, 75 resources, 73-74 timing of decline, 72 Special Drawing Rights (SDKs), of International Monetary Fund, 186, 187 specialization in shipping, 56 "special relation" between Britain and U.S.,42, 173 spices trade, 69 spurt, big in economic growth, 16 stages of economic growth, 16 Standard Gauge Act of 1846, 142 standards, British lack of industrial, 142 Dutch, 91-92 Standstill Agreement, 164 "star system" in sport and universities, 183-84 States General of the United Provinces, 90 steam engine, 129, 131 steel, in France (and iron), 115 in Germany, 159 in Japan, 197 Stein, Baron vom, 129, 153, 154 sterling, as world standard, 42 decline of, 147 Stinnes, H., 163 stock market crash, New York in 1987,206 Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), 180 subsidiarity, 220 sugar, westward movement of cultivation from Arab lands, 71 swindles, 184 Takahashi, K., 193 Takeda, M., 201 tariff for revenue only, 134 268 tariff of rye and iron (German), 134, 156-57 tariff war between France and United Provinces, 92 taxation (Dutch), 99-100 taxes in France, 106 tax reduction in U.S., 189 team play, decline in, 183 technical education, in Britain, 145-46 in France, 114-15 technical obstacles to British industry, 139^iO technocracy, in France, 117 technology, international transfer of, 23-24 from the Continent to Britain, 109 from Britain to the Continent, 109-110 British action to restrain export, 109 Japanese imports, 197 Terra Ferma, Venetian hinterland, 57 thaler, Prussian currency, basis for mark, 151 Third World syndicated bank lending, 187 timber, Dutch imports, 91 duties (British) repeal, 133-34 Spanish supplies, 74-75 Venetian imports, 55, 63, 64 timing of changes in primacy, 50-53 Britain, 138^1 of decline, Bruges, 85-87 Spain, 80-81 tinplate (Welsh), 137 trade, distant, 23-24 British, 127-29 French, 110 German, 152-53 Japanese, 195-200 Japanese-U.S friction over, 198-99 liberalization in Japan, 196-97 transformation from materials to manufactures, 127 trading cities as republics, 152 Index transport, by land, 21-22 by water, 21 Treaty of Paris, 128 Treaty of Tilsit, 153 trekvaan (Dutch canal system for transporting people), 90 Tsuru, S., 195, 197,201,205 Tulip Mania of 1636, 96 Turner, P., 201 turning points, 34 in cycles of primacy, 53 ff in growth, 50 unemployment, disguised, 119 unforeseen (or unintended) consequences, 10-15 uniqueness, national, 211 Unit of Account, 187 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), 226-27 United Nations Security Council possible seat for, Germany, 169, 225-26 for Japan, 208, 225-26 United States, as bound to lead, decline of shipping, nineteenth century, 36 foreign economic policy, twentieth century, 176-77 health care, 180 military expenditure, 180 postwar aid to Europe, 166, 173 slowness in accepting world leadership, 223-24 universities, British, 145^6 and centralization, 219 Dutch, 98-99 German, 153 Japanese, 202 Spanish, 81 vanity, as French characteristic, 34 Veblen, T., Venice, 56-59 compared to Amsterdam, 31 Council, 57, 58, 64 decline, 63-66 269 Index finance, 66-67 as intermediary, 55 merchants, 56 Vereinigde Oostindisch Compagnie (VOC) See Dutch, East India Company Versailles treaty responsibility for Hitler, 165 U.S rejection of, 173 Vicens Vives, J., 36, 78, 70 Victorian boom, 133 Vietnam war, 216 vitality, decline of, 31 Japanese, 200 of nations, vii-viii Spanish lack of, 34 synonyms and antonyms, VOC See Dutch, East India Company Voluntary export restrictions (VERs), 196, 226 wages, Dutch high contributing to decline, 99-100 Wagner, A., 161n Wagner's law, 30 Wallerstein, I., core and periphery analysis applied to cycles, 90 global hegemony cycles, 51 war, 9, 46-47 of American Independence, 110,112 as cause of loss of primacy, 215 early "world" wars, 47 between United Provinces and England See Anglo-Dutch wars and effects on national growth cycle, 35-36 as hothouse in economic growth, 36 Italian, among city-states, 58 and physical destruction of, 36 Spanish, 80 of the Spanish Succession (Queen Anne's), 46-i7 wealth, 27 U.S preoccupation with, 183— 84 Wedgwood, J., 129 weights and measures, as public goods, 77-78 standardization to reduce transactions costs, 28 Weimar Republic, breakdown, 161, 213 whaling, decline of Dutch, 102 wheat, European response to price decline in 1880s, 157 German and U.S exports, 157 "will vs wallet," 188, 216-17 "'Windhandel'" (trade in futures, options), 96 Wisselbank (exchange bank) See Bank of Amsterdam Wirtschaftswunder See German, economic miracle wool British exports, 59 British staple on the Continent, 84,86 Spanish exports, 73 decline of, 79 woolens See also new draperies, British British competition with Italians, 59,65 World Economic Conference of 1933,45, 176,227 world economy, first, 60 World Health Organization (WHO), 226 World Trade Organization (WTO), 226 yen appreciation, 200 Young, A., 78 zaibatzu (Japanese cartels), 194 Zeitgeist (spirit of the time), 17, 211 Zollverein (German customs union), 151,154,156 .. .World Economic Primacy: 1500 to 1990 This page intentionally left blank World Economic Primacy: 1500 to 1990 Charles E Kindleberger Ford International Professor of Economics, Emeritus... others in economic primacy, or that the country being caught up with may in some World Economic Primacy: 1500- 1990 instances decline absolutely It has not escaped notice that after World War... Adolph Hitler Economic analysis and economic history have lately been concerned with path dependency, the impact on economic processes and institutions 10 World Economic Primacy: 1500- 1990 of events

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  • Contents

  • 1 Introduction

  • 2 The National Cycle

    • The S-Curve

    • Scanning the Future

    • Resources

    • Distant Trade

    • Industry

    • Migration

    • The Industrial Revolution

    • Cardwell's Law

    • Agriculture

    • Decline in Productivity

    • Finance

    • Government Finance

    • Social Capability

    • Mentalités

    • Slowdown

    • The Role of War

    • Policy

    • Conclusion

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