MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING CAN THO UNIVERSITY - - DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DISSERTATION ABSTRACT Major: Agricultural Economics Code: 9620115 PHAM DUC THUAN ASSESSMENT OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE EMPLOYMENT NEEDS OF RURAL LABORERS IN CAN THO CITY Can Tho, 2019 THE PROJECT HAS COMPLETED IN CAN THO UNIVERSITY Instructor: Assoc Prof., Ph.D: Duong Ngoc Thanh The dissertation is defended to University’s Doctor of Philosophy Dissertation Examination Council In: Hall … Can Tho University At: … Hour … Date… Month….Year Reviewer 1: Reviewer 2: Find more information about dissertation at: Can Tho University Learning Resource Center National Library of Vietnam LIST OF PUBLISHED PROJECTS Duong Ngoc Thanh and Pham Duc Thuan, 2012 Determination advantages and disadvantages - opportunities and challenges in employment and apprenticeship of laborers in Can Tho City Journal of Economic Management, Ministry of Planning and Investment, 47:3-18 Pham Duc Thuan and Duong Ngoc Thanh, 2015 Assessment of factors affecting the job finding ability of rural laborers in Can Tho City Can Tho University Journal of Science, 36c: 97-104 Pham Duc Thuan and Duong Ngoc Thanh, 2015 Assessment of factors affecting the participation in vocational training of rural laborers in Can Tho City Can Tho University Journal of Science, 40d: 83-91 Duong Ngoc Thanh and Pham Duc Thuan, 2016, Chapter 3: Shift in the economic structure, labor, rural employment, Duong Ngoc Thanh (Editor): “Employment labor and rural vocational training in the Mekong Delta (status quo and orientation)” Can Tho University Publishing House, pp 36-60 Duong Ngoc Thanh, Pham Duc Thuan and Nguyen Cong Toan, 2016 Chapter 7: Experience and orientation solutions for vocational training, job creation in the process of industrialization and urbanization, Book: “Employment labor and rural vocational training in the Mekong Delta (status quo and orientation)” Can Tho University Publishing House, pp 131-160 Chapter INTRODUCTION 1.1 Reasons for selecting the topic Labor and employment are always one of the most pressing issues in the world, the concern of all humanity in general and each nation in particular For each country, job creation is the basic solution to maintaining political stability and economic development In addition, increasing population and urbanization have also led to a decline in agricultural land, large family narrow house status quo, lack of employment, which are avoidable This status quo has been a barrier to the socio-economic development of each locality and country The current status quo of labor resources in the city has not met the need for labor recruitment of enterprises The need for recruitment of skilled and highly qualified laborers is increasing There is a difference in recruitment needs for sex between male and female laborers, between urban and rural areas In the rural areas in particular and the laborer of the whole city in general, job creation for laborers is an urgent issue for local government and each level of the city Labor and employment pressures are increasing Employment need for rural laborers is a current issue Actually, there are no specific researches on the employment of rural laborers in the Mekong Delta The above status quo were chosen for the research topic: “Assessment of factors affecting the employment needs of rural laborers in Can Tho City” 1.2 Research objectives 1.2.1 Overall objective On the basis of synthesizing, studying theoretical bases on needs, employment and rural labor shift to find new points in research The study aims to analyze and evaluate the factors affecting the employment needs of rural laborers, and propose solutions to create jobs for rural laborers in the future in accordance with local socio-economic conditions of Can Tho city 1.2.2 Specific objective (1) Study the theoretical basis of employment needs and rural labor shift (2) Assessing the current situation of employment needs of rural laborers (the on-farm laborers and off-farm laborers in agriculture) in Can Tho city (3) Assessment of factors affecting the employment needs of rural laborers in Can Tho city (4) Suggestion the solutions to meet the employment needs for rural laborers in the future in Can Tho city 1.3 Scope of research 1.3.1 Contents of research (1) An overview of the theoretical basis of employment, needs, vocational training, working time of laborers in domestic and foreign studies (2) According to the theory, the dissertation gives research model for analyzing and assessment of the factors affecting the employment needs of laborers in Can Tho City (3) The thesis describes employment status, needs, vocational training, working time of rural laborers (the on-farm laborers and off-farm laborers in agriculture) in Can Tho city (4) The dissertation determined the factors affecting the employment needs of laborers in Can Tho City From the results of the analysis, it is necessary to propose important solutions that will help rural laborers meet their employment needs in the future 1.3.2 Research subjects The main research subject of this dissertation is employment needs of the laborers in rural areas and in Can Tho City The examined subjects of the dissertation (on-farm laborers, off-farm laborers and non-farm laborers) are laborers having suitable age in rural areas who are involved in working in rural areas 1.3.3 Scope, location and time - For time: collecting background data from 2013 to 2016 and primary data from 2015 to 2015, and adding information on working time of rural laborers - For location: researching location of the dissertation in rural areas of Phong Dien, Thoi Lai, Co Do and Vinh Thanh District where have features about agricultural production and rural labor source, accounting for 68, % of total rural laborers having suitable age in Can Tho City Chapter OVERVIEW OF REFERENCE 2.1 The concept 2.1.1 Employment needs Employment needs are the capabilities of the laborers themselves to adapt to the working environment in order to satisfy their desires for employment or to seek a work for the employees themselves 2.1.2 Definition of research subjects On-Farm is rural laborers who have agricultural land and work on their land (referred to as on-farm) Off-farm is rural laborers who work in field of agricultural production, not directly produce agriculture on their own land, and are hired to work on other’s land Non-farm is rural laborers who work in field of non-agricultural (such as industry, construction, service, and trade), indirect production in field of agriculture (referred to as non-farm) 2.2 Experimental models of labor supply and labor shift Experimental study on labor supply analysis (Soesta et al., 2002 Heckman, 1974; Arellano and Meghir, 1992), model of working hours (Lundberg, 1988), assessment of unemployed and underemployed laborers (Ham, 1982), analyzing the impact of immigration (Altonji and Card, 1991), analyzing the trend of labor restructuring (Tuong Manh Dung, 2016; Le Duy Mai Phuong, 2016) 2.3 Research frameworks Inheriting from the research framework on the main sources of household income (Junior Davis, 2006), on "Migration Syndrome" (Haas, 2010), analytical framework for migration decisions (Byerlee, 1974) ), the linkages between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors Le Xuan Ba, 2006), Theoretical framework of factors affecting the process of career restructuring of Vietnamese agriculture (Vo Huu Hoa, 2018 ), Selfemployment research model of rural laborers in Nghe An province (Ho Thi Dieu Anh, 2015) and synthesized from research materials at home and abroad, combined with research objectives set out to build the research framework of the thesis 2.4 Overall assessment for research status Based on the researches that have been reviewed, most studies have approached the theoretical framework of labor movement between the two regions, especially those that have applied the method of analyzing the impact factors to the income and employment of laborers Regarding the assessment of labor migration (Byerlee, 1974; Haas, 2010) and on labor mobility (Juárez, 2000; Le Xuan Ba, 2006; Vo Huu Hoa, 2018), between the two agricultural sectors and non-agricultural sector, between urban and rural areas to create jobs (Ho Thi Dieu Anh, 2015) or provide jobs (Lundberg, 1988), creating income for laborers themselves The majority of studies have analyzed in relation to many labor migration and employment of laborers, especially agricultural laborers in rural areas (age, sex, health, qualifications and vocational training, land) affects the employment and income of laborers Most of the studies focused on analyzing the research framework on the impact of income groups, by the group of factors affecting households, according to the factors affecting labor mobility between agricultural and non-farm sectors However, these studies have not clarified the internal factors of individual laborers and external factors that directly affect the employment needs of rural laborers However, the above empirical studies have not clarified the employment needs of the laborers themselves, and still focus on analyzing the transition between the two regions (agriculture and industry), not yet focused In-depth analysis of job needs shifted from working subjects to agriculture from non-farm in rural areas (in which the agricultural sector in rural areas has two subjects: on-farm labor and off-farm labor in agriculture needs to shift jobs to non-farm labor) One of the important factors in changing the work or finding jobs of laborers, is the working time of laborers to meet the full time for work or leisure time of laborers to supplement the work to generate income for laborers not specifically analyzed This is a research issue of this thesis on assessing factors affecting the employment needs of rural laborers In summary, the above empirical studies still focus on analyzing the transition between the two regions (agriculture and industry), not focusing on in-depth analysis of the employment needs of agricultural laborers village; Besides, empirical studies have not evaluated the working time of labor (including idle time, overtime of labor) Therefore, the novelty of the thesis is based on issues that have not been studied and mentioned as a basis for the author to study the factors (internal and external) that affect the employment needs of agricultural laborers The village has a review of the working time of the laborers Chapter RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1 Approach With the application of the theory of labor shifting between the two areas of Lewis (1954) and Oshima (1987) on the approach of the thesis is to apply the theory of employment needs into practice to develop the research framework of the thesis on employment needs of rural laborers In addition, research frameworks on labor supply by Byerlee (1974), Haas (2010), Le Xuan Ba (2006), and Vo Huu Hoa (2018) also inherited factors affecting job needs of rural labor and applying empirical research as a basis for research, analysis and detection of gaps in the analysis of employment needs between the two sectors (agriculture and industry) mentioned in reasoning facilities This is an important scientific basis, contributing to proposing solutions to meet employment needs for rural laborers in the coming time Regarding the content, the thesis focuses on overcoming the shortcomings of previous studies through in-depth analysis of the following main contents: (1) studying and analyzing the current situation of employment needs of laborers rural areas (on-farm laborers and off-farm laborers); (2) identify and assess factors affecting the employment needs of rural laborers; (3) focus on developing solutions to meet the needs of rural laborers in the future for Can Tho city 3.2 Research Framework With the implementation of this research framework (Figure 3.1), the dissertation focuses on how the internal factors of the rural laborers affect their employment needs, at the same time, the analysis of external factors affecting the job seeking to meet the needs of rural laborers in Can Tho city INTERNAL FACTORS GROUP - Age ON-FARM LABOERS - Sex - Health status - Education and professional level - Income - Unemployment NEEDS OFF-FARM LABOERS - Free time FOR LABOR TRANSFER EXTERNAL FACTORS GROUP - Dependent person NON-FARM LABOERS - Productive land - Vocational training - Loan policy Figure 3.1: General research theoretical framework Source: Summarized and recommended by the author The study of the dissertation deeply analyzes the needs for rural labor employment (the will of the laborers themselves) according to each rural labor subject, which is a thesis that adds to previous studies includes the following contents: (i) Researching the theoretical basis of employment needs and rural labor transfer; (ii) Independent researches affecting the employment needs of rural laborers; (iii) Focusing on solutions to meet the employment needs of rural laborers in the coming time 3.3 Methods of data collection - Collection of the secondary data on vocational training, employment, general policies from departments, localities, and published research documents - Collect primary data of non-randomized stratification sampling method, the number of observations is determined according to Cochran's formula (1977) Total observations of 530, of which on-farm laborers are 210 observations, off-farm laborers are 110 observations, non-farm laborers are 210 observations, from districts: Phong Dien, Thoi Lai and Co Do and Vinh Thanh The reason for choosing these districts is that there are relatively many agricultural and production households in this district, focusing on many rural laborers 3.4 Methods of data analysis 3.4.1 Descriptive statistics method Using descriptive statistical methods to assess the current situation of employment needs of rural laborers by each subject, with indicators such as frequency, rate, average number, variance in research to tissue describe the status of internal factors (age, sex, health status, education and professional level, income, unemployment, leisure time) and external factors (dependent person, land production, vocational training policies, loan policies) of rural laborers in Can Tho city Cross-Tabulation analysis This goal focuses on identifying and analyzing the factors affecting the employment needs of rural laborers by each subject According to Kamakura and Wedel (1997), this analysis is used to examine “yes or no” relationship between two factors in the overall, this is an independent test The chi-square (χ2-chi-square) test is suitable when two research factors are discrete or quantitative variables Hypothesis in testing has the following contents: H0: there is no relationship between variables (independent) H1: there is a relationship between variables (dependent) The Chi Chi square test value (-2- Chi-square) in the analysis results will provide the significance of the test (P - Value) If the significance level is less than or equal (the level of initial analysis = 0.05), the test is completely meaningful or otherwise reject the hypothesis H0, meaning that the variables are related Conversely, variables are not related to each other X17 = Working experience of Off-farm laborers: Work experience of employees working in agriculture who have done (1 = less than year; = words to less than years = from to less than years, = from to under 10 years, = from over 10 years) X18 = Work experience of Non-farm laborers: It is the work experience of non-farm laborers who have done (1 = less than year; = to under years, = from to less than years, = from to under 10 years, = from over 10 years) X19 = Average number of idle days per year (in years): Number of idle days of rural laborers per year for years (days) X20 = On-farm average: On-farm number of overtime working days per year for years (date) X21 = Off-farm average: Number of extra working days of an Off-farm laborer over the year for years (date) X22 = Average number of overtime days (Non-farm): Number of overtime working days for non-farm laborers (Non-farm) per year for years (date) X23 = Average number of idle days per month (in years): Number of idle days of rural laborers per month for years (date) X24 = On-farm average: On-farm number of overtime working days per month for years (date) X25 = Off-farm average: Number of extra working days of an off-farm employee per month for years (date) X26 = Non-farm average: Number of extra working days of rural laborers per month for years (date) X27 = Employed labor: Total number of employed people in the household (people) X28 = Remuneration increased over the year: Remuneration for rural laborers is paid per year (million dong) 14 X29 = On-farm price: On-farm wages are paid on a year (million dong) X30 = Off-farm price: On-farm wages are paid per year (million VND) X31 = Non-farm price: Non-farm wage: On-farm wages paid per year (million VND) Regression analysis by Tobit model with blocked variable is the number of working days / months of rural laborers to determine the factors affecting the working time of rural labor groups Table 4.2: Results of regression analysis of factors affecting the employment time of rural laborers (second time) Khoản mục Age Sex Education and professional level Health status Production land Unemployment Work experience of On-farm laborers Working experience of Off-farm laborer Working experience of Non-farm laborer OFFARM ONFRAM Number of members Employed labor 2016 Income 2017 Income 2018 Income Average number of idle days per year (in years) Constant Coef Std.E rr T P>|t| -0,062 0,119 0,011 -0,339 0,012 17,898 -0,051 -0,016 0,011 9,914 9,914 -0,216 0,220 0,429 -0,313 -0,163 0,035 0,166 0,025 0,327 0,046 0,41 0,028 0,01 0,016 0,291 0,198 0,134 0,245 0,158 0,168 0,724 -1,79 0,71 0,44 -1,04 0,26 43,08 -1,82 -1,02 0,72 18,04 50,09 -1,61 0,90 0,27 -1,87 -2,26 0,075 0,476 0,661 0,301 0,798 0,000 0,070 0,308 0,474 0,000 0,000 0,108 0,370 0,786 0,063 0,025 0,304 0,030 10,27 0,000 3,579 0,037 3,96 0,000 Source: Synthesis, treatment from the survey results 300 observed TPCT, 2018-2019 Accordingly, in the case of a set of data, 300 households are screened from the interview results; Tobit regression analysis results with blocked variables are the number of working days / months of on-farm, off-farm and non-farm labor groups The results show the factors affecting the number of working days / month including employment status, agricultural 15 work experience (on-farm), 2017 income accumulation and income accumulation in 2018; These variables are statistically significant at the 1% level in the Tobit model In addition, factors with variables with statistical significance at 10% can also be considered including turning age and number of family members The results of Tobit regression analysis in the case of removing factors are not statistically significant (2nd time), then get the parameter values of the regression model, Pseudo R2 = 0.4526, LR Average method = 845,40, Prob> Chi squared = 0,000 and Spearman correlation coefficient between variables < 0.6, so there is no multicollinearity phenomenon so the model is statistically and appropriately, including the factor as follows: (1) The employment status factor (binary variable) affects the number of working days in a month at a statistically significant 1% level and positive sign With a regression coefficient of 17,898, it shows that employment status (1 = having a job or = unemployment) is a positive impact on the number of working days / months of rural laborers Those who are employed will tend to increase the number of working days in a month than those without jobs (2) The on-farm work experience factor (continuous variable): affects the number of working days in a month at a statistically significant 1% level and negative sign With a regression coefficient of -0,051, it shows that agricultural production experience has a negative impact on the number of working days / months of rural laborers In other words, people with more experience in agricultural production, higher productivity will tend to reduce the number of working days in the month However, this coefficient is quite low, indicating that the improvement is negligible This is consistent with the judgment of Nguyen Bich Lam (2018) that by 2017, our country still has 21.6 million employees working in agriculture, forestry and fishery, while labor productivity this area only reached 35.5 million VND / labor, equaling 38.1% of the general labor productivity of the economy; equal to 29.4% of labor productivity in industry and construction and 31.3% of labor productivity of service sectors If calculated according to the average number of actual working hours, the hourly labor productivity in this area also improved insignificantly, only about 43.3% of the overall productivity level; equal to 37.4% of labor productivity in industry and construction and 30.3% of service sector productivity Through the survey results on the quantitative comparison of demographic factors, working time, free time, income, of individuals, family members of survey subjects and of all households are compared based on the criteria of labor subgroups of the surveyed subjects 16 (3) Factors of family members (continuous variables): affect the number of working days in the month at the 10% statistically significant level and negative sign With a regression coefficient of -0,216, it shows that the number of family members is a factor that has a negative impact on the number of working days per month of rural laborers In other words, the more members the family has, the more likely it is to reduce the number of working days in the month because they can share the work for the remaining members Through survey results on family members of the survey subjects and based on labor subgroups of the surveyed subjects (4) Income accumulation factor in 2017 and accumulated income in 2018 (continuous variable): affect the number of working days in the month at a statistically significant level of 5% and negative sign With corresponding regression coefficients of -3.13e-07 and -1.63e-07, it is shown that income accumulation is a factor that has a negative impact on the number of working days / months of rural laborers In other words, the more families accumulate (with savings), there will be a tendency to reduce the number of working days Through the survey results on wage unit prices and income from overtime jobs of rural labor groups, of which the income of the on-farm labor group is mainly derived from agricultural production activities and doing more at idle periods of time; Similarly, off-farm and non-farm labor groups also earn their main income from their main activities Other parts of the work they take advantage of when they have idle time from the main job income arises insignificantly (5) For two dummy variables (ONFARM AND OFFARM): to determine the working group, the case of the on-farm model group (on-farm value = 1; the remaining groups have the value ) the number of working days will tend to be higher with a coefficient of 9,914 compared to the offfarm group (off-farm = 1; the remaining groups will have a value of 0) with a coefficient of 9,914, and the rest is non-farm model (on-farm value and off-farm = 0) Accordingly, the number of working days / months of the onfarm group tends to increase over the remaining groups This is consistent with the results of the analysis of the absolute growth rate of the elements of working time of rural labor through the years 2016, 2017 and 2018 above Next is the off-farm labor group that tends to increase more than the non-farm group This is also in line with the fact that laborers working in agriculture, although they have done according to the number of hours the tenant has set, however, they still want to increase the number of working hours to earn more income And for non-farm groups, due to the non-farm nature of the work, the working hours are more stable 17 (6) Average number of idle days per year (in years): shows that households have more idle time will increase working time Through the survey results on analyzing volatility analysis of the average growth factors (absolute number) of the income accumulation criteria, the amount of overtime work, the number of idle days, the number of extra working days and the price wages of labor groups surveyed in years 2016, 2017 and 2018, noted: - Accumulate income of on-farm group with an average increase of 2.2 million VND; off-farm groups rose 0.8 million and non-farm groups increased 0.8 million This result is consistent with the General Statistics Office's data for the average monthly income of employed laborers in the first quarter of 2019, reaching 5.7 million dong / month, an increase of 670 thousand dong from the previous quarter and an increase of VND 1.03 million compared to the same period last year The average income of urban laborers is million VND higher than that of rural laborers (7.7 million VND and 4.7 million VND respectively) At the same time, the average monthly income of wage laborers in the first quarter of 2019 is estimated at 6.9 million VND / month, an increase of 1.05 million compared to the same period last year; urban labor is 8.2 million dong / month, rural labor is 6.0 million dong / month - The number of idle days in a month and year of working groups onfarm, off-farm and non-farm also tends to decrease over the years; respectively -0.3, -0.4 and -0.3 days / month and -5.0; -5,24; -5,3 days / year This is a positive signal that employment in rural areas of Can Tho city has improved over the years - Regarding working time, the number of overtime working days in the month and in the year of the groups for agricultural jobs tends to increase In particular, the on-farm group had the most increasing days, followed by the off-farm group and finally the non-farm group - Wages for each type of on-farm, off-farm and non-farm jobs also tend to increase over time 4.3 Evaluate factors affecting the employment needs of rural laborers From the collected data of 530 survey samples for regression analysis (Binary Logistics model) identified the factors affecting the employment needs of rural laborers The regression function looks like this: Y=β0 + β1X1 + β2X2 + β3X3 + β4X4 + β5X5 + β6X6 + β7X7 + β8X8 +… + ε Where: 18 Y1 = 1: rural laborers have a job need to shift to non-farm labor (find convert new jobs); Y1 = 0: rural laborers not have a job need to shift to non-farm labor - β0 is the root factor (constant); - βi is the estimated coefficient of the independent variables for the dependent variable - Xi are independent variables The independent variables included in the model include: X1 = Age (in working age); X2 = Sex (0 = female; = male); X3 = Health status (1 = healthy enough to participate in labor; = not healthy enough to participate in labor); X4 = Education and professional level (0=illiterate; 1=class 1; 2=class 2; 3=grade 3; 4=grade 4; 5=grade 5; 6=grade 6; 7=grade ; = grade 8; 9=grade 9; 10=grade 10; 11=grade 11; 12=grade 12; 14=intermediate level; 15=college; 16=university; 20=university level; X5 = Income (million VND / month); X6 = Unemployed (1 = Unemployed; = employed), is a labor situation that is not hired and is not paid over months / year X7 = Working time (number of working months); X8 = Dependent person (people); X9 = Production land (1,000m2); X10 = Vocational training (1 = vocational training; = no vocational training); X11 = Loan support policy (1 = loan support; = no loan support); 4.3.1 Evaluate factors affecting the employment needs of on-farm laborers shifting to non-framl labor The hypothesis test results of the general fit of tissue have significant significance to observe Sig 0.1 so we completely reject the hypothesis H0 with equal and equal coefficients The correct prediction level of the entire model is 80.5%, the regression coefficients are significant for Sig values < 0.05 and Sig < 0.10, we have independent variables meaning statistically including factors (age, education and professional level, income, unemployment, working time, dependent person and vocational training) affecting the employment needs of on-farm laborers 19 shifting to non-farm laborers, with a significance level of less than 10% As follows: Table 4.3: Results of regression analysis of employment needs of onfarm laborers shifting to non-fram laborers Items X1 = Age X2 = Sex X3 = Health status X4 = Education and professional level X5 = Income X6 = Unemployed X7 = Working time X8 = Dependent person X9 = Production land X10 = Vocational training X11 = Loan support policy Constant B -0,079 0,253 0,167 1,046 0,104 1,334 -0,499 2,177 -0,713 1,677 0,641 8,933 S.E 0,078 0,432 0,697 0,464 0,002 0,785 0,174 0,189 0,456 0,423 0,463 1,839 Wald df 2,237 0,343 0,309 4,514 2,051 2,890 8,234 3,876 2,442 3,563 1,920 23,605 Sig Exp(B) 0,063 0,924 0,558 1,287 0,223 1,182 0,017 2,847 0,082 1,109 0,089 3,795 0,004 0,607 0,035 8,819 0,118 0,490 0,049 5,349 0,166 1,899 0,000 7.579 Source: Synthesis, treatment from the survey results 210 observed TPCT, 2018-2019 X1 = Age: turning age with a negative value, showing that the higher the age of on-farm laborers, the lower the possibility of finding a job, because of obstacles because of health, so it does not guarantee good jobs and age If it is high, it is obstructed because of health, so it does not guarantee a good job, but some other jobs are also indirect (housework, child care) to help non-farm laborers reduce their expenses towel X4 = Education level and Professional qualification: variable with positive value, showing that agricultural laborers have high educational and professional qualifications, they want to have a job needs shifting from agricultural production to non-farm X5 = Income: variable with positive value, showing that on-farm laborers have higher income, agricultural laborers have a needs for jobs shifting from agricultural laborers to non-farml laborers, they want to find jobs in non-agricultural areas to get higher income X6 = Unemployment: Unemployment is a positive value, indicating the unemployment of on-farm laborers affecting the needs for jobs shifting from agricultural labor to non-farm labor, reflected when Unemployed laborers find jobs suitable to their capacity and experience to earn income (unemployment is often due to natural disasters, during the period of 20 conversion of crops, livestock, time of soil and disease improvement disability) X7 = Working time: making working time has a negative value, showing that the less time working in agricultural production, the more onfarm laborers have the needs to shift from on-farm laborers to non-farm laborers X8 = Dependent person: making dependent person of positive value, showing that the more Dependent person in the household, the more onfarm laborers have the needs to shift from agricultural laborers to non-farm laborers many, reflecting the need for laborers to have income to pay for living expenses of family and themselves X10 = Vocational training: positive vocational training variables, showing that the more agricultural laborers are interested in vocational training, the more dependent the number of dependent person in the household is job needs shifted from on-farm laborers to higher non-farm laborers, vocational training is the foundation for basic baggage for nonfarm laborers (qualification, professional knowledge), helping people laborers get better jobs and especially stable incomes In short, agricultural laborers have a needs for jobs, they want to have regular jobs (due to seasonal production, free time), so they look for suitable jobs to create more income for elderly laborers, such as cooperating with businesses or joining cooperative and cooperative groups in agricultural production, but most on-farm laborers (young people) want to seek jobs in non-agricultural areas have higher incomes, deal with household expenses, support or provide for dependent person (school-aged children, frail older people, people with disabilities, unemployed,…) 4.3.2 Evaluate factors affecting the employment needs of off-farm laborers shifting to non-farm laborers The hypothesis test results of the general fit of tissue have significant significance to observe Sig < 0.1 and Sig > 0.1 so we completely reject the hypothesis H0 with equal and equal coefficients The correct prediction level of the entire model is 92.7%, the regression coefficients are significant for Sig values < 0.05 and Sig < 0.10, we have independent variables with statistical significance including 05 factors (income, unemployment, working time, dependent person and vocational training) that affect the 21 employment needs of people off-farm laborers has shifted to non-farm laborers, with a significance of less than 10% As follows: Table 4.4: Results of regression analysis of employment needs of offfarm laborers shifting to non-fram laborers Items X1 = Age X2 = Sex X3 = Health status X4 = Education and professional level X5 = Income X6 = Unemployed X7 = Working time X8 = Dependent person X9 = Production land X10 = Vocational training X11 = Loan support policy Constant B -0,019 -1,816 1,541 -0,228 -1,026 2,287 -0,863 1,957 -0,457 1,437 2,071 6,314 S.E 0,090 1,381 1,101 0,332 0,017 1,150 0,813 0,760 0,476 0,924 1,361 8,030 Wald df 0,044 1,729 1,962 0,473 3,380 9,062 5,052 3,586 0,923 4,422 2,315 1,345 Sig Exp(B) 0,833 0,981 0,189 0,163 0,161 4,671 0,492 0,796 0,043 0,359 0,003 9,845 0,009 0,422 0,038 7,078 0,337 0,633 0,020 4,209 0,128 7,935 0,246 552,185 Source: Synthesis, treatment from the survey results 110 observed TPCT, 2018-2019 X5 = Income: variable with negative value, shows that the lower wage earners work, the more jobs are needed to shift to non-farm laborers X6 = Unemployment: Unemployment is a positive value, indicating that the higher the unemployment rate of off-farm laborers working in agriculture, the higher the employment needs will be shifted to non-farm laborers X7 = Working time: making working time has a negative value, showing that the working time of off-farm laborers is less, the more people working in agriculture, the more jobs are needed higher non-farm laborers X8 = Dependent person: turning dependent person with positive values, showing that the more dependent person in the household, the more off-farm laborers in the agricultural sector have the needs to shift from nonfarm laborers The more agriculture, the more dependent person are laborers who have not yet reached the working age and the elderly in the family, who not generate additional income, but depend on the main labor of the family Most of them are poor households who often have no land or little land to cultivate, so they live on hired labor as their main source of income, which is very limited, not enough to cover expenditures in the peak, so they need to find finding better jobs and better incomes to 22 ensure non-farm living or in other words, they have a high need for job transfer to non-farm laboersr X10 = Vocational training: positive vocational training variable, shows that the higher the number of off-farm laborers, the more off-farm laborers in the agricultural sector need to shift from off-farm laborers activity to non-farm laborers However, according to the survey results, laborers who work as hired labor in agriculture are mostly low-level, with difficult family conditions, so participating in vocational training classes is very little involved, the industry participates in training Mainly created are tractors, implants, plows, some cases of laborers working in agriculture with working age from 45-60 years old, have experience in working as offfarm laborers in agricultural production but they not want to participate in training to change to non-farm jobs In short, working laborers in agriculture have low qualifications (with illiterate cases), working age from 45-60 years old, in some cases, even if the age is too old to work as prescribed, but it is possible labor capacity continues to participate in hired labor in agricultural production (because they have experience in employment in agricultural production) Besides, the number of dependent person in the family has a great influence on laborers working in agriculture (the main labor of the family), so the laborers working in agriculture need jobs to create adding income to cover household expenses, therefore, the off-farm laborers have a high needs for jobs in shifting jobs from agricultural laborers to non-farm laborers 4.5 Essential solutions Developing programs and plans to solve the problem of employment for agricultural laborers: every year sectors (labor, agriculture, education), statistics and local authorities in the districts of the city Can Tho needs to have surveys on the age, education level and professional level of agricultural laborers who need jobs, thereby developing programs and plans to solve labor problems, employment in the agricultural sector and preliminary evaluation of the results of implementation of programs and plans Continuing to shift the economic structure, with a focus on industrial transformation: restoring and developing traditional trades and craft villages Currently in Can Tho city there are jobs such as bamboo and rattan weaving, rice paper making, and construction material exploitation areas Propagating and improving people's knowledge about the value of 23 traditional industries, encouraging expansion of scale, attracting more laborers, creating jobs for rural laborers during leisure time Particularly, priority should be given to small and medium-sized enterprises to invest in developing industry, handicraft industry, processing agricultural, forestry and export products, and traditional industries, attracting many laborers and creating jobs for rural laborers Creating jobs for rural laborers through job creation policies: regularly organizing models of job fairs in districts, developing labor markets in the direction of enhancing direct transactions between people labor and employers, linking labor supply and needs in the city and the whole country, quickly creating jobs for laborers To step up vocational training for rural laborers, with a focus on vocational training for labor exporters: each laborer needs to have a sense of qualification (vocational training), to have necessary conditions in job search or intention to change jobs, to improve the income of themselves and their families Therefore, there should be vocational programs of city leaders and district leaders for rural laborers (especially young laborers) To well carry out extensive propaganda on labor export on mass media and mass organizations; publicly announce, specifically about the labor market, the number, time, selection criteria, working conditions, labor laws of the country in need of labor recruitment Expanding labor export market, on the one hand exploiting traditional markets, and expanding labor export to high-income markets and having great needs for labor, stable capital markets and give high income to laborers Expanding the subjects to get loans to create jobs: promoting programs to support loans of mass organizations, creating conditions for rural laborers, such as preferential credit loans for employees to participate labor export (especially for poor and near poor laborers), so that laborers have more job opportunities for employees in contracting with those who need to hire agricultural production, contracts harvest 24 Chapter CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusions The problem of creating jobs for laborers is one of the important criteria to evaluate the results of the implementation of the annual and medium-term plans of the city in the past time, solving jobs and contributing to solving social issues and promote economic development synchronously According to the direct survey data, 530 people in working age include: 210 on-farm laborers, 110 off-farm laborers and 210 non-farm laborers; combined with the method of statistical analysis describing the situation of rural laborers (cross-table analysis), methods of analyzing Tobit regression model on the working time of rural laborers, method of distribution model of Binary Logistics regression on the employment needs of rural laborers to address research objectives, research questions and hypotheses The important results of the thesis are generalized as follows: 5.1.1 Theoretical basis for employment needs and rural labor transfer On the basis of applying the theory of labor shifting between two areas of Lewis (1954) and Oshima (1987), the thesis's approach is to apply theory into practice to build a solution In addition, empirical studies on labor supply by Byerlee (1974), Haas (2010), Le Xuan Ba (2006), and Vo Huu Hoa (2018) are also inherited and applied as a basis for research analysis and detection of gaps in the analysis of employment needs between the two regions (agriculture and industry) This is an important scientific basis, contributing to proposing a research framework to address the main objective of analyzing employment needs for rural laborers Theories of: supply - labor needs, labor shift, labor time, idle labor, employment, play a key role in building theoretical bases, serving as a foundation for construction factors that affect research on rural laborers who need jobs when the transition period is appropriate 5.1.2 Actual situation of employment needs of rural laborers by subjects Factors affecting the employment needs of rural laborers by subjects: age, sex, health status, education and professional level, idle time, 25 vocational training, policy loan support, and job transfer needs of laborers The above-mentioned factors have been tested for squared expenditure and there is a difference in the tendency to shift the employment needs of onfarm laboerers and off-farm laborers to non-farm laborers in the Can Tho city For on-farm laborers: with occupations mainly being agricultural jobs, there is a stable job, because of working experience is a farming profession, creating revenue for themselves and their families, they participate in production According to the family tradition, when they have time, they will switch to some industries according to their abilities Therefore, in order to improve income, agricultural labor must be healthy, qualified to find more jobs For off-farm laborers in agriculture: due to the current industrialization and urbanization prfarmagricultural sector attracts many laborers Therefore, similar to on-farm laborers, off-farm laborers in agriculture need to have health, qualifications and capital to facilitate the transfer of jobs to non-farm laborers, with the desire to seek careers with additional income or improve income with a new job 5.1.3 Factors affecting the employment needs of rural laborers Based on the analysis of working time, the use of Binary Logistics Regulatory Model to assess the factors affecting the employment needs of rural laborers in Can Tho city The following results: Factors affecting the employment needs of on-farm laborers shifting to non-farm laborers indicate that they have a needs for jobs, they want to have regular jobs (due to seasonal production, yes idle time), so they look for jobs that match their capacity to generate more income for elderly laborers, but most on-farm laborers (young people) want to find jobs in nonfarm areas have higher incomes, deal with household expenses, support or provide for dependent person (school-aged children, frail older people, people with disabilities, unemployed people) ) Factors affecting the employment needs of off-farm laborers shifted to non-farm laborers, showing that laborers working in agriculture have low qualifications (in case of illiteracy), and labor working with age but working ability continues to work as off-farm labor in agricultural 26 production (because they have experience in working as off-farm laborers in agricultural production) In addition, the number of dependent person has a great influence on employees working in agriculture (the main labor of the family), so laborers working in agriculture need jobs to generate more income Enter to cover family expenses 5.1.4 Solutions that contribute to helping rural laborers to meet employment needs in the future Develop programs and plans to solve the problem of labor employment for rural laborers In order to solve the unemployment rate of laborers in rural areas, it is necessary to have coordination of functional agencies from cities to communes and hamlets in the district in general, on the basis of favorable and difficult assessment towels, causes in job creation for rural laborers and building appropriate plans for each locality Continuing to shift economic structure, focusing on industrial transformation The departments, branches and city leaders need to have specific policies for economic restructuring, to promote the strengths of the locality and solve the phenomenon of idle working time in households, actively contribute to the economic transformation in the locality Create jobs for rural laborers through job creation policies Specialized agencies on labor, trade and investment promotion need to regularly organize employment days, creating a favorable environment for businesses to interact with rural laborers, to create jobs for local laborers, creating conditions for laborers to find jobs suitable to the health status and age of laborers To step up vocational training for rural laborers, with a focus on vocational training for labor exporters In addition to implementing the vocational training policy and creating jobs for laborers according to the guiding documents of the Central Government, the relevant specialized agencies of the city need projects, plans and work coordinate in vocational training to meet the needs of domestic and foreign enterprises, especially skilled laborers Expanding the subjects to get loans to create jobs The relevant levels of the city's specialized agencies and joint-stock commercial banks need to work together to develop policies to support loans to solve problems for laborers, contributing to improving the economy of households Family and local socio-economic development have been developed 27 5.2 Recommendations In order to have comprehensive solutions to create jobs for the city's labor force and overcome the constraints mentioned by the research, it is essential to study the labor supply-needs market for each economy, each economic region, each locality, in which, the influences of the process of international integration, the academic levels of the laborers, the needs for labor recruitment of foreign investors, the seasonal nature of employment, and the impact of the policies of the Central Government and the locality on laborers should be taken into consideration In order for the vocational training to be more effective, the leaders of the city and the levels, sectors and localities should annually survey and evaluate vocational training and job creation to having a basis to allocate reciprocal funding and resources to implement programs and projects to support job creation for rural laborers; in which, it is necessary to focus on investment and development of vocational training network, complete and improve conditions for vocational training quality, and mobilize many social sectors to participate in vocational training; ensuring more effective vocational training requires further research to train a future source of quality labor 28 ... laborers) in Can Tho city Table 4.1: Verification of squared expenditures of rural laborers Nhân tố STT Giá trị χ2 df Sig (α) 103,378 0,000 Sex 5,224 0,022 Health status 5,951 0,015 Education and... on-farm - Dependent person of off-farm 39,524 9,825 3 0,000 0,020 11 Production land Age 11 STT Nhân tố Giá trị χ2 df Sig (α) Where: - Production land of on-farm - Production land of off-farm 25,766... laborers working in agriculture also more non-farm jobs such as: taking leaf cones, knitting hyacinths, knitting baskets, at home Similarly, the off-farm laborers also needs jobs to shift to non-farm