Tác động của chính sách tiền tệ đến rủi ro mất khả năng thanh toán của các ngân hàng thương mại việt nam tt tiếng anh

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY MAI THI PHUONG THUY THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON THE RISK OF INSOLVENCY AT VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS SUMMARY OF DOCTORAL THESIS IN ECONOMICS MAJOR: BANKING AND FINANCE CODE: 9340201 Supervisors: Assos Prof Dr Tran Hoang Ngan HO CHI MINH CITY -2019 LIST OF WORKS RELATED TO THE THESIS HAS BEEN PUBLISHED Mai Thi Phuong Thuy (2018), “The impact of monetary policy to economic growth in Vietnam”, Review of Finance, 11/2018 Mai Thi Phuong Thuy (2018), “Liquidity risk, credit risk and the insolvency of commercial banks”, Review of Finance, 11/2018 Mai Thi Phuong Thuy (2018), “The impact of management board 's size on the risk acceptance of joint stock companies in Vietnam”, Review of Finance, 6/2018 Mai Thi Phuong Thuy, Truong Nguyen Tuong Vy (2018), “Impacts of corporate management on capital structure of enterprise”, Review of Finance, 7/2018 Mai Thi Phuong Thuy, Bui Thi Diep (2018), “Factors of liquidity risk of commercial banks in Vietnam”, Review of Finance, 5/2018 Mai Thị Phương Thuy (2015), “The influence of macroeconomic shocks in Vietnam's bad debt”, Economy and forecast review, 8/2015 CHAPTER GENERAL INTRODUCTION 1.1 Reason to choose the topic The risk of insolvency is one of banking critical risks in the recent period, especially when global crises in general and each region in particular occur continuously Studies of Laetitia, Strobel and Frank (2013), Mohamed Aymen Ben Moussa (2015) show that the insolvency risk states an important position in the types of risks related to the existence of a banks and sometimes a nation's financial system In which, the issue of ensuring solvency is very important to the existence and development of banks The solvency at the bank's point must be understood to immediately respond to customers' withdrawal at times When banks lose their liquidity, the economy will fall into gloom In fact, this has been verified through the recent world economic crisis in 2007 - 2008, the risks of subprime credits lead to the insolvency and bankruptcy of corporations and companies Major banking companies such as Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch pushed the US economy into recession Previous Experimental studies about the impact of monetary policy on the risk of bank insolvency show many different results Therefore, studies of how the change of bank's insolvency risks the shock of monetary policy have been interested in economists since the classical period Due to these reasons, this paper works on "The impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency at Commercial Banks" to make a doctoral thesis 1.2 Research gap Previous researches exist gaps include: First: Previous studies in the world about the impact of monetary policy on the risk of losing the liquidity of commercial banks according to different aspects, thus showing result from many multidimensional according from many area of studies together On the other hand, researchs on this impact in Vietnamese commercial banks receive limited attention, and therefore no public announcement in Vietnam really discuss throught it Second: The summary of the previous relevant studies shows that the basic interest rate is the main policy instrument That represents the variable monetary policy used by the Central Bank in research samples It used to implement the impact of this instrument’s risk of insolvency to the central banks, so these researchs not clearly differentiated the effectiveness of each monetary policy tool While in Vietnam, a mix of non-interest instruments is often used to support or replace interest-based monetary policy Thirdly, the previous documents mainly study some specific characteristics of banks such as the size and capital structure, the ability to capitalize on the influence of monetary policy on bank risks, while macroeconomic conditions, institutional quality and transparency of policies affecting this channel are still limited There are no studies at the same time to check the impact of individual characteristics of banks, such as capital scale and structure, capitalization, income composition and capital and specific elements of the economy such as: economic growth rate, inflation rate, institutional quality or policy transparency for this impact 1.3 Objectives of the study The overall objective of the study is to assess the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks under the influence of institutional quality To achieve the overall goal, the study has the following specific objectives: - Measuring the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks - Check the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks - Check the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks under the influence of institutional quality - Providing solutions for the State Bank of Vietnam to administer effective monetary policies to help Vietnamese commercial banks limit the risk of insolvency 1.4 Research question To achieve the research goal, the topic answers the following research questions: - What is the level of risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks over the past time? - How is the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks? - When the institutional quality changes, how does the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks change? - In order to manage the monetary policy effectively and limit the risk of insolvency, what solutions should be implemented and how should the SBV adjust monetary policy? 1.5 Object and scope of the study Subject of research: the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency of commercial banks Scope of the study: Research and use balance sheet data for 30 commercial banks in Vietnam in the period from 2008 to 2017 1.6 Data and research methods Research data Study and use table data for 30 commercial banks in Vietnam in the period of 20082017 Research Methods Descriptive statistics method Comparison method Methods of analysis and synthesis Method of estimation: This study performed regression of models by System GMM method - SGMM by Arellano & Bond (1991) 1.7 Research significance In this study, the author measures and evaluates how monetary policy affects the level of risk of insolvency in Vietnamese commercial banks in the period of 2008-2017 In addition, investigate factors that regulate the impact of monetary policy on the risk of bank insolvency such as: characteristics of banks, macroeconomic conditions, and institutional quality and transparency of policy Research has specific contributions: Theoretically: the research results will contribute to the theoretical basis of the risk of insolvency, monetary policy, the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency of commercial banks In addition, the study provides a systematic overview and overview of empirical evidence in the world over this impact in terms of the influence of the characteristic elements of the bank, the characteristics of the background economy 1.8 Research structure In addition to the preamble, conclusion, list of abbreviations, list of tables, lists of references and appendices, the thesis content includes specific chapters as follows: Chapter 1: General introduction Chapter 2: Basis of theory and empirical evidence about the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency of commercial banks Chapter 3: Methods and research data Chapter 4: Research results and discussion Chapter 5: Conclusion and policy implications CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL BASIS AND EXPERIMENTAL CERTIFICATION ON THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON THE RISK OF INSOLVENCY AT COMMERCIAL BANKS 2.1 The theory of monetary policy 2.1.1 Monetary policy concept In short, monetary policy is a part of the overall economic policy system of the State to implement macro management for the economy to achieve socio-economic goals in each phase certain paragraph Monetary policy can be understood in the broad and ordinary sense In a broad sense, monetary policy is a policy of regulating the entire amount of money in the national economy in order to influence the four major objectives of the macro economy, on the basis of which the basic goal is stable determine the currency, maintain the purchasing power of the currency, stabilize the price of goods In the usual sense, the policy is concerned about the amount of additional supply in the coming period (usually one year) in line with the expected economic growth and inflation index, if any, of course also to stabilize determine currency and stabilize commodity prices 2.1.2 Objective of monetary policy In designing policy objectives, policy makers form many different levels of objectives, including ultimate goals, intermediate goals, and operational goals The ultimate goal of monetary policy such as output, inflation or employment To achieve this goal, planners will design intermediate goals such as money supply targets or interest rate targets But before that, to reach the intermediate goal, it is necessary to build operational goals In order to design the operational objective, it is necessary that the central bank should have corresponding policy tools These objectives of monetary policy are detailed as follows: 2.1.2.1 The last goal The ultimate goal includes: stabilizing prices, curbing inflation, stabilizing exchange rates, stabilizing interest rates, stabilizing financial markets, economic growth, reducing unemployment rates 2.1.2.2 Intermediate objectives The indicators commonly used as intermediate targets are the total amount of money supplied (M1, M2 or M3) or the market interest rate (short and long term) 2.1.2.3 Operational objectives Operational objectives are indicators that respond immediately to the adjustment of monetary policy instruments These criteria include: total reserves or monetary base, shortterm interest rates on the inter-bank market, or treasury bill interest rates 2.1.3 Tools of monetary policy According to Mishkin (2013), the SBV decided to use the tool to implement the national monetary policy, including refinancing, interest rates, exchange rates, compulsory reserves, open market operations and tools, other measurements 2.1.4 Transmission channel of monetary policy According to Chatelain et al (2002); Mishkin (2009), Cecchetti (1999), Ganev and colleagues (2002), monetary policy can affect the economy through four main transmission channels: interest rate channel, credit channel, exchange rate channel and channel properties, specifically as follows: 2.1.5 The effectiveness of monetary policy Along with fiscal policy, monetary policy is the two main tools for policy makers to implement macro objectives And to measure the effectiveness and usefulness of fiscal and monetary policy to economic activity, economic researchers often use the IS - LM model 2.2 Theory of risk of insolvency at commercial banks 2.2.1 The concept of risk of insolvency at commercial banks * Solvency of commercial banks Solvency has become an urgent issue in practice for the banking system In the academic aspect, the concept of solvency is mentioned in studies, such as: BIS (2009) defines the solvency of commercial banks as a specialized concept of the bank's ability to both increase its assets and meet its debt obligations when it is due without excessive losses to permission According to Duttweiler (2009), the solvency of commercial banks is the ability of banks to promptly and fully meet the financial obligations arising in the course of business operations such as payment of deposits, loans, payments, and other financial transactions In summary, the solvency of commercial banks is the ability to access assets that can be used to pay with reasonable capital costs as soon as capital needs arise The task of maintaining adequate solvency is one of the top jobs, criteria of each bank, playing an important role in the transfer of business capital, and thereby affecting the situation of operations business of commercial banks It can be said that solvency is a very sensitive issue in the bank's business operations A bank with insolvency will quickly go to the brink of bankruptcy and affect the stability of the entire system *Risk of insolvency of commercial banks According to Lastra and Schiffman (1999), the risk of insolvency is a situation of insolvency, which can be defined in two ways First, it is a failure to repay financial obligations when due Second, it is the status of liabilities in excess of assets on the balance sheet Thus it can be understood that the risk of insolvency is an unexpected event that occurs when an individual or an organization cannot fulfill its financial obligations to the lender when it is due This risk can often lead to bankruptcy of an organization 2.2.2 Measuring the risk of insolvency at commercial banks Researchers often use Z t of pig c joy of Mohamed Aymen Ben proposed Moussa (2015) c tailstock can: 𝑍 − 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 = (𝑅𝑂𝐴𝑖,𝑡 ) + 𝐸𝐴𝑖,𝑡 ) 𝜎(𝑅𝑂𝐴𝑖,𝑡 ) Inside: ROA i,t: represents the return on total average asset of bank i in year t EA i,t: denotes the average equity ratio on the total average asset of bank i in year t (ROA i, t): standard deviation of ROA of bank i in year t 2.2.3 Impact of insolvency risk The risk of insolvency is one of the rare risks but has a great influence on the operation of banks This risk means that banks are falling into financial distress and without timely measures, the possibility of bankruptcy is very high However, in fact, there is no clear and specific regulation on bankruptcy, so most Vietnamese banks , when falling into insolvency in the long term, will often go to merging, merging with other banks Lack of insolvency affects not only the bank itself, but also the financial system of a country Typically, large banks will be helped by the central bank, typically as the case of banks losing their solvency due to rumors However, it is also this action that could make the central bank face the problem of changing the current monetary policy, so that it can both regulate the macro economy and bring the bank get out of insolvency 2.3 Impact of monetary policy on risk of insolvency of commercial banks Previous studies focused on the two main groups of monetary policy risk to the insolvency of commercial banks: The first is that the expansionary monetary policy increases the risk of incapacity payment of commercial banks The second direction refers to an expansionary monetary policy that reduces the risk of insolvency of commercial banks 2.3.1 Extensive monetary policy reduces the risk of insolvency of commercial banks First, the expanded monetary policy increases the value of assets including collateral and income of banks, thus improving the ability of banks to withstand risks, or reduce the risk of loss payment ability of commercial banks Secondly, reducing interest rates may increase bank profits, thus reducing the risk of bank insolvency Agur and Demertzis (2012) argue that an expansionary monetary policy may have two effects on bank risk: first, lower interest rates may also reduce the risk of default of borrowers because financial costs decreased and their output increased, secondly, low interest rates could increase the bank's business profits 2.3.2 Extensive monetary policy increases the risk of bank insolvency The impact of monetary policy instruments increases the risk of bank insolvency through a number of channels as follows: First, interest rates decline when the central bank enforces an expansionary monetary policy affecting the behavior of depositors, banks have difficulty in mobilizing business capital and risk tolerance reduction Secondly, with the expansion of monetary policy, banks can loosen lending standards and increase credit for customers at higher risk when monetary policy is lifted and there is a boom about credit risk Third, reducing interest rates will increase leverage and risk of bank insolvency 2.4 Institutions and the impact of institutional quality on the evil d sign The study used data table for 30 at Vie t Nam Commercial Bank in the period 20082017 CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1 Current situation of Vietnam economic situation and monetary policy management of the State Bank of Vietnam 4.2 Statistical description of research samples and correlations between variables Table 4.3 Descriptive statistics results Observed Number of The average Standard Smallest variables observations value errors value ZSCORE 300 23.98102 11.48096 1.32173 MP_I1 300 0660692 0255972 04375 MP_I2 300 0854233 024424 06375 CR 300 1962818 0859924 0885 FXI 300 1,036094 0333158 9913957 INF 300 08424 0690287 0063 SM 300 20431 0542346 twelfth INC 300 0176324 0299349 0005517 GRO 300 0600761 0052783 0524737 LERNER 300 296084 0839612 0214135  Greatest value 62.19548 1183333 1333333 3753 1,09083 2297 298 3610977 0681 608538 Source: Calculated results from STATA software 12.0 Matrix correlation coefficient Table 4.4: Matrix of correlation coefficient ZSCORE MP_I1 MP_I2 CR FXI ZSCORE 1,0000 MP_I1 0.1203 1,0000 MP_I2 0.1222 0.9993 1,0000 CR 0.1430 -0.2086 -0.2082 1,0000 FXI 0.1461 0.4627 0.4488 0.4813 1,0000 INF 0.1978 08018 0.7976 0.1905 0.7298 INF 1,0000 SM INC GRO LERNER INS SM 0.0989 -0.1787 -0.1552 0.5685 0.0095 0.0182 1,0000 INC 0.0208 -0.0653 -0.0648 -0.0955 -0.1047 -0.0958 -0.0252 1,0000 GRO -0.1095 -0.3343 -0.3555 0.0328 0.0562 -0.2153 -0.4937 0.0116 1,0000 LERNER 0.1612 0.1462 0.1485 0.5026 0.4026 0.3208 0.3448 -0.1788 -0.1120 1,0000 INS 0.1925 0.4753 0.4744 0.7025 0.5432 0.6008 0.3699 -0.1151 -0.2282 0.5134 1,0000 Source: Calculated results from STATA software 12.0 4.3 Results of model estimation: 4.3.1 Research results of the impact of monetary policy through discount interest rates on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks Table 4.5 Results of estimating the impact of monetary policy through discount interest rates on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks: ZSCORE L1.ZSCORE MP_I1 (1) (2) 0.7332959 *** 0.7330487 *** -77.6337 *** MP_I1 * INS LERNER -136.0426 *** -67.31281 *** -67.88617 *** INC -5.837649 -6.101499 GRO -4.069882 0.0312943 INF 17,60018 ** 18.33111 ** INS 142,714 *** 150.1159 *** AR (1) p-value 0.000 0.000 AR (2) p-value 0.430 0.420 Hansen p-value 0.158 0.179 Number of groups 30 30 Number of instruments 12 12 Second stage F-test pvalue 0.000 0.000 *** is statistically significant at 1%; ** statistically significant at 5%; * statistically significant at 10% level Source: Calculated results from STATA software 12.0 4.3.2 Results of studying the impact of monetary policy through refinancing interest rate on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks Table 4.6 The results of estimating the impact of monetary policy through refinancing interest on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks: ZSCORE (1) (2) L1.ZSCORE 0.7333975 *** 0.73317 *** MP_I2 -76.60372 *** MP_I2INS LERNER -135.118 *** -65.30902 *** -65.94658 *** INC -5.213932 -5.516252 GRO -9.668521 -6.166287 INF 15.73444 * 16,51843 * INS 141.0092 *** *** 151,256 *** AR (1) p-value 0.000 0.000 AR (2) p-value 0.439 0.435 Hansen p-value 0.127 0.147 Number of groups 30 30 Number of instruments 12 12 0.000 0.000 Second stage F-test pvalue *** is statistically significant at 1%; ** statistically significant at 5%; * statistically significant at 10% level Source: Calculated results from STATA software 12.0 4.3.3 Results of studying the impact of monetary policy through credit growth on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks Table 4.7 The results of estimating the impact of monetary policy through credit growth on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks: ZSCORE L1.ZSCORE CR (1) (2) 0.7621012 *** 0.7635814 *** 10.70238 ** CR * INS LERNER 18,6333 ** -53.14439 *** -54.05944 *** INC -7.891961 -8.096692 GRO 10.46436 13,69072 INF -4.309509 -3.966301 INS 91.13384 *** 87.87678 *** AR (1) p-value 0.000 0.000 AR (2) p-value 0.284 0.285 Hansen p-value 0.183 0.190 Number of groups 30 30 Number of instruments 21 21 0.000 0.000 Second stage F-test pvalue *** is statistically significant at 1%; ** statistically significant at 5%; * statistically significant at 10% level Source: Calculated results from STATA software 12.0 4.3.4 Research results of the impact of monetary policy through the growth of foreign exchange reserves to the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks Table 4.8 The results of estimating the impact of monetary policy through the growth of foreign exchange reserves to the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks: ZSCORE L1.ZSCORE FXI (1) (2) 0.7789841 *** 0.7793681 *** 38.17569 ** FXI * INS LERNER 67.14772 ** -71.34752 *** -71.11823 *** INC -18,347 *** -18.32496 *** GRO 134.0334 * 132.8164 * INF 2101131 * 21.28813 * INS 139.7416 *** 209.3562 *** AR (1) p-value 0.001 0.001 AR (2) p-value 0.186 0.182 Hansen p-value 0.128 0.128 Number of groups 30 30 Number of instruments 14 14 0.000 0.000 Second stage F-test pvalue *** is statistically significant at 1%; ** statistically significant at 5%; * statistically significant at 10% level Source: Calculated results from STATA software 12.0 4.3.5 Research results of the impact of monetary policy via money supply M2 on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks Table 4.9 Results of estimating the impact of monetary policy through M2 money supply growth on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks: ZSCORE L1.ZSCORE SM (1) (2) 0.7012158 *** 0.7013728 *** 9.456087 ** SM * INS LERNER 15,99927 ** ** -44.88975 *** -44.71353 *** INC 103.5786 ** 103,3254 ** GRO 112.0558 ** 109,486 ** INF -2.606349 -2.290335 INS 130,5677 *** 126.3688 *** AR (1) p-value 0.000 0.000 AR (2) p-value 0.803 0.805 Hansen p-value 0.107 0.102 Number of groups 30 30 Number of instruments 13 13 Second stage F-test pvalue 0.000 0.000 *** is statistically significant at 1%; ** statistically significant at 5%; * statistically significant at 10% level Source: Calculated results from STATA software 12.0 4.4 Summary of research results Research results of the thesis on monetary policy impacts on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks conclude that: Answer to research question No 3: The expansionary monetary policy of the State Bank of Vietnam reduces the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks and vice versa An expansionary monetary policy by reducing the interest rate for recapitalization or the refinancing rate, expanding the credit limit, increasing the reserves of foreign exchange or the growth of M2 of the State Bank of Vietnam will affect prices assets and thereby affect the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks Specific, expanded monetary policy increases the value of customer assets as well as assets of Vietnamese commercial banks through (i) stock prices; (ii) real estate prices: First, the SBV lowered the interest rate for re-discount or refinancing rate will lower the market interest rate, while bonds are less attractive than stocks As a result, demand and stock prices rise For businesses, the higher the share price, the more capital is raised for each issue, the higher the asset price of the business The expansionary monetary policy leads to an increase in stock prices Accordingly the net value of the company increases, an increase in net worth will enhance the company's mortgage ability and thus lead to increased debt For households, the expansionary monetary policy will increase stock prices, increasing the wealth of households Therefore, the expansionary monetary policy has affected the wealth of households Secondly, monetary policy widens as money supply increases due to an increase in money supply M2 or an increase in foreign exchange reserves influencing the wealth of households through housing prices and major consumer spending Expanded monetary books increase housing prices, increasing household wealth For commercial banks, when borrowing customers, they must mortgage real estate in banks Thirdly, in terms of policy management in line with the development level of the economy, avoiding the situation where the total amount of money supply increases excessively in circulation, when implementing the expansionary monetary policy by expanding Credit growth, will stimulate the business sector to develop production, improve debt repayment capacity, and promote economic growth For commercial banks, expanding credit helps bring in income from lending, expanding market share and developing other services and utilities, thereby reducing the risk of insolvency for commercial banks In summary, the expansion of monetary policy increases the value of customer assets as well as bank assets and income of banks, thereby improving profitability and business performance, increasing the power risk tolerance In addition, when the SBV implemented an expansionary monetary policy, it made it easier for Vietnamese commercial banks to access loans from the SBV through cheap refinancing and rediscount rates, increasing asset value at commercial banks, increased net capital supply than before This impact reduces the risk of losing the ability of Vietnamese commercial banks Answer to research question 4: when the institutional quality increases, the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks also increases In other words, when the effectiveness of contract implementation and information transparency on market changes for banks, legal rules, strengthen regulations, sanctions are tighter and more stable Politics and control of corruption have been strengthened, the State Bank of Vietnam has implemented an expansionary monetary policy which will increase the Zscore index, thus reducing the risk of losing the liquidity of commercial banks and vice versa As the market economy grows, the economic and social activities become more sophisticated, if the institutional capacity does not keep up, leading to the economic downturn The quality of public services, the quality of government agencies, policy quality and policy enforcement, the credibility of the Government's commitments should ensure the development and implementation of development assistance policies private sector development In the process of building and improving the institutional system, replace old institutions policies by new, adapted policies in Vietnam in the period of 2008-2017 There are adaptions in fundamental changes in institutions such as Intellectual Property right policies, free trade agreement, new institutions in the field of banking and finance, business This is an important premise to facilitate commercial banks to easily access news, regulations, new regulations issued, transparent financial markets, create a clear corridor for not only customers but also customers, contributing to increase profits and business performance, risk reduction CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY 5.1 Conclusion In addition to presenting the theoretical basis, the author also summarizes domestic and foreign studies related to assessing the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency The research model is included by the author based on the results of the previous relevant studies On the basis of inheriting the results of previous studies, the author uses panel data when conducting research Unlike previous studies using self-regression vector model (VAR) in building a model to assess the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency, the author used to estimate SGMM to build modeling with table data Experimental research results show that: When the rediscount rate or refinancing rate decreases, the Z index will increase, which means the risk of insolvency decreases An expansionary monetary policy by reducing the interest rate for recapitalization or refinancing rate makes commercial banks easier to access capital than before, the risk of insolvency decreases When the SBV intervenes in the foreign exchange market by buying foreign currency in the market as the domestic money supply on the market rises, an expansionary monetary policy, banks can access capital easily The risk of insolvency is reduced more easily When the M2 supply increases, the risk of insolvency decreases The increase in M2 supply shows that the expansion of monetary policy, the impact of reducing the risk of insolvency of commercial banks in two directions: Impact on the wealth of households: housing prices are components The importance of household wealth and the impact on consumer spending and the expansion of monetary policy increase housing prices and increase the wealth of households Impact on bank balance sheet: this model is based on the assumption, when borrowing capital, investors must mortgage real estate in the bank The expansionary monetary policy increases real estate prices, increases the value of collateral and bank capital, leading to an increase in the bank's asset value The increased level of competition of commercial banks will reduce the Z index, which means that the risk of insolvency increases As the level of competition increases making banks difficult to business, banks are forced to increase interest rates to compete for capital mobilization On the other hand, banks have to loosen lending conditions toattract customers This increases the risk of insolvency of banks Increasing inflation rate will reduce the risk of insolvency As inflation rises, deposit interest rates increase in accordance with the attractive proportion of residential deposits, and lending activities are limited due to high lending rates absorb bad customers and increased risks, resulting in the risk of insolvency of commercial banks reduced As institutional quality increases, the impact of monetary policy through rediscount interest on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks increases In other words, when the effectiveness of contract implementation and information transparency on market changes for banks, legal rules, strengthen regulations, sanctions are tighter and more stable Political, corruption control has been strengthened, the SBV enforces an expansionary monetary policy, which reduces the risk of insolvency of commercial banks 5.2 Implication of monetary policy management policy to minimize risks Improving the institutional quality of Vietnam Implement strong solutions to reduce corruption, while increasing government accountability Administrative reform, application of management technology to improve the governance efficiency of the government apparatus, facilitate transparent access to information for the people Perfecting the legal system to build a proper rule of law, ensuring that all natural persons and legal persons are equal before the law Maintain political stability, limit conflicts and other forms of violence in domestic and foreign affairs of the government 2 Improving the effectiveness of the monetary policy in Vietnam 5.3 Limitations and further research directions The impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency of commercial banks is complex and current research has not been able to find all the relevant issues in it Therefore, the author believes that checking the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency of commercial banks should be considered an ongoing process, must be improved and developed constantly, should not be interrupt at any time Although the research goal has been achieved, the author found that this research is still limited and needs to be supplemented and improved in the future Firstly, due to time constraints, the ability to collect data, although the research sample is done with most of commercial banks in Vietnam, 100% foreign-owned commercial banks, policy banks, and one the number of other commercial banks is not subject to research Since each bank has its own characteristics in terms of size, type, competitiveness, management capacity, and different resources, the impact of monetary policy on the risk of bank insolvency risk same Due to the limitation of the scope ofresearch, there are 30 Vietnamese commercial banks, so the generalization is not high This opens the door for future studies research on broader, more banks to results with higher generality Secondly, the thesis only focuses on empirical research on the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency of commercial banks taken from the financial statements published by the year from 2008 to 2017 The next study should improve the process of collecting data to improve both the quality and quantity of data Assessing the impact of monetary policy on the risk of insolvency of commercial banks requires many data, including macro-economic data for both the economy and individual figures of each Bank.Long time series of numbers will make it easier for test performers to determine the scenario, so short ranges of numbers often not have many strong fluctuations and therefore difficult to imagine the effects For banks' performance data, the more detailed the data will help the simulations, assuming close to reality and the more accurate the results ... growth, will stimulate the business sector to develop production, improve debt repayment capacity, and promote economic growth For commercial banks, expanding credit helps bring in income from... of commercial banks taken from the financial statements published by the year from 2008 to 2017 The next study should improve the process of collecting data to improve both the quality and quantity... Source: Calculated results from STATA software 12.0 4.3.3 Results of studying the impact of monetary policy through credit growth on the risk of insolvency of Vietnamese commercial banks Table

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