MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUY LOI UNIVERSITY INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES PLANNING USING WEAP MODEL IN THE CAU RIVER BASIN Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh MSc Thesis on Intergrated Water Resources Management February 2015 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUY LOI UNIVERSITY NGUYEN THI THUY LINH INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES PLANNING USING WEAP MODEL IN THE CAU RIVER BASIN Major: Intergrated Water Resources Management THESIS OF MASTER DEGREE Supervisors: Dr Ngo Van Quan A/Prof Pham Quy Nhan This reseacrch is done for the partial fulfilment of requirement for Master of Science Degree at Thuy Loi University (This Master Programme is supported by NICHE – VNM 106 Project) February 2015 ABSTRACT The Cau River is a tributary of the Thai Binh river system in the North of Vietnam Different water users (agriculture, domestic, industry…) are present in the basin Rising population and increasing water provision in rural and urban areas, in conjunction with the development of the industry or agriculture are going to greatly worsen the complexity of future water resources planning in what is already a waterstressed basin Being able to assess the ability of the basin to satisfy potential water demands is decisive in order to plan for the future and make positive decisions In this study, a scenario analysis approach was used in conjunction with the Water Evaluation and Planning model, in order to assess the impacts of possible water demands on the water resources of the Cau river basin in 2030 For each scenario, the water resource implications were compared to a 2012 “baseline scenario.” The model enabled analyses of unmet water demands, and water storage for each scenario The model results show that for the different scenarios considered in this study the implementation of the water resources allocation will increase the shortages for other sectors The construction of the main water storage infrastructure proposed by irrigation planning in the Cau river basin, in conjunction with the application of the percentage allocation method, can reduce the unmet demands and shortfalls to levels lower than, or similar to, those experienced in the 2012 baseline However, in all cases these interferences will be inadequate to completely meet the demands of all the sectors A tight control of the growth in future demands is essential, although this may be difficult in a rapidly developing country like Vietnam DECLARATION I hereby certify that the work which is being presented in this thesis entitled, “Integrated water resources planning using the WEAP model in the Cau river basin” in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the Mater of Science in Integrated Water Resource Management, is an authentic record of my own work carried out under supervisions of Dr Ngo Van Quan and Associate Professor Dr Pham Quy Nhan The matter embodied in this thesis has not been submitted by me for the award of any other degree or diploma Date: February 24, 2014 Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh ACKNOWLEGEMENT This study was completed in the Faculty of Water Resources Engineering of Thuy Loi University I am sincerely grateful to all my supervisors, Doctor Ngo Van Quan and Associate Professor Doctor Pham Quy Nhan; teachers who have always encouraged and motivated me and who have given enthusiastic guidance and suggestions during the learning process and completion of my thesis I am sincerely grateful thanks to the supporters of the project NICHE VNM-106 of the Dutch government (NUFFIC) I also would like to express my sincere gratitude to the teachers in the Faculty of Water Resources Engineering, who were helpful in conveying knowledge and technical expertise during my study I would like to say thanks to my family, colleagues and friends who were cheering, encouraging and creating favorable conditions in my study and my thesis process Because of the limited time and experience, the thesis has inevitable shortcomings Therefore, I look forward to advice from the teachers so that my thesis will be more complete STUDENT NGUYEN THI THUY LINH TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT DECLARATION ACKNOWLEGEMENT LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background 1.2 Problem Statement 1.3 Objective of study 10 Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 11 2.1 Integrated water resources management 11 2.2 Integrated water resources planning 12 2.3 Integrated water resources planing in Vietnam 15 2.4 Some model about water allocation 17 2.4.1 GIBSI model…………………………………………………………………18 2.4.2 BASIN model……………………………………………………………… 18 2.4.3 MIKE model…………………………………………………………………20 2.4.4 WEAP model…………………………………………………………… …20 Chapter 3: MATERIAL AND STUDY AREA 24 3.1 Characteristic of Cau river basin 24 3.2 Water Resources issues 26 3.3 Social-economic development 27 3.4 Current water use for each sector: 30 Chapter 4: METHODOLOGY 32 4.1 Conceptual framework 32 4.2 WEAP method 33 4.2.1 Program Structure: 34 4.2.2 Using WEAP model 37 CHAPTER 5: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 39 5.1 Results of calculation water demand in the current situation 39 5.1.1 Divide to small sub-basins to calculate water demand: 39 5.1.2 Determine water demand in sub-basins 38 5.1.3 Calculate flow rate in sub-basins…………………………………………….46 5.1.4 Nui Coc reservoir in Cong river sub-basin………………………………… 47 5.2 Results of water allocation in current situation 47 5.3 Water allocation under scenarios to develop society and economy of the Cau river basin 45 5.3.1 Results of water allocation for the 2013-2030 period 49 5.3.2 Results of water allocation for scenarios in the future (from 2013 to 2030) 52 5.3.3 Select option and propose solution for Integrated water ressources planning in the Cau river 61 5.4 Discussions: 64 CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS67 6.1 Summary and Conclusions 67 6.2 Recommendations 68 6.3 Future works: 69 REFERENCES 70 APPENDIX 72 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Water resources planning process 14 Figure 3.1: Overview of the Cau river basin and river network (Institute for Water Resources Planning Hanoi, 2009) 24 Figure 4.1: The flow chart of analysis water allocation planning for the Cau River Basin 33 Figure 5.1: Four Sub-basins in Cau river basin 40 Figure 5.2: Modeling diagram about water allocation in current situation 48 Figure 5.3 Results of calculation water shortage in 2012 48 Figure 5.4: Results of water demand in 2030 with orientated development plan 50 Figure 5.5: Results of water demand for the 2013-2030 period with orientated development plan 50 Figure 5.6: Result of calculation water shortage in 2030 (billion m3) 51 Figure 5.7: Develop scenarios and calculate water balance under scenarios 54 Figure 5.8 Results of water demand in 2013 of scenarios 55 Figure 5.9: Results of calculations water shortage for scenarios 56 Figure 5.10 Chart of water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario (million m3)57 Figure 5.11 Chart of water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario (million m3)58 Figure 5.12 Chart of water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario (million m3)59 Figure 5.13 Chart of water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario (million m3)60 Figure 5.14 Results of calculation water shortage for scenarios and 63 LIST OF TABLES Table 5.1: The data for Four Sub-basins in Cau river basin .41 Table 5.2: The main sectors of water used in the Cau river basin 42 Table 5.3: Irrigation water demand in the sub-basins of Cau River basin 42 Table 5.4: Domestic water demand in the sub-basins of Cau River basin .43 Table 5.5: Industrial water demand in the sub-basins of Cau River basin .44 Table 5.6: Summary of calculating water demand in 2012 of each sub-basin in the Cau river basin 45 Table 5.7: The Meteorological stations in Cau river basin .46 Table 5.8: Average flow in sub-basin (m3/s) 46 Table 5.9: Result of unmet demand in 2012(million m3/s) .49 Table 5.10: Unmet demand of water supply for the 2013-2030 period (million m3)51 Table 5.11: Summary of scenarios of water resources in the Cau river basin .54 Table 5.12: The water demand for scenarios for the 2013-2030 period (billion m3) 55 Table 5.13: Unmet demand of scenarios for the 2013-2030 period(billion m3) 56 Table 5.14 The results of the water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario (million m3) .57 Table 5.15 The results of the water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario (million m3) .58 Table 5.16 The results of the water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario (million m3) .59 Table 5.17 The results of the water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario (million m3) .60 Table 5.18: The unmet demand for scenarios and for the 2013-2030 period (million m3) .63 Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Water seems to be an endless resource, the inexhaustible gift of nature This was a fact more than 30 years ago, but with the many changes in the lives of people, the economic situation… the shortage of water has become one of the top concerns for humanity Today, water is used in an unsustainable way in the majority in the world In all the countries in the world water is predicted to become scarcer by 2025 or even earlier due to continuously increasing demand This reality constitutes a major threat towards sustainable development and achievement of millennium development goals in the region About only 1% of the world’s fresh water, occurs in the region with 5% of the world’s total population Water demands have dramatically increased as a consequence of a high population growth rate, expansion of agriculture, and the lack of and a weak water policy Many countries actually suffer, think of the Middle East, North Africa, there are areas there too that are severely affected by scarce water resources are now suffering from water deficiency and other countries will face this problem in the near future Hence, we need to regulate the water usage to ensure a sustainable, equitable and efficient utilization of the resource The allocation of the water resources is normally made through a permit or licensing system, which the system enables the government or state authorities to control the resources taking into account all stakeholder interests In our country with abundant water resources this may not be needed but with the increased pressure on the water resources, both in terms of quantity and quality, the abundant water supply is becoming a rare situation In recent years, the research applies mathematical models as a tool to support integrated management of water resources, when considering water resource development, water resource planning, administration and management of water resources in river basin in the world as well as in the country increasingly powerful place The tool applies mathematical models to contribute in the integrated management of water resources, water resource managers, and the household sector 63 Table 5.18: The unmet demand for scenarios and for the 2013-2030 period (million m3) Figure 5.14 Results of calculation water shortage for scenarios and Thus, the results of calculating water resources allocation in scenario 5, the total lack of water is 106.14 million m3 in 2013 and 2014 From 2013 to 2020, with the percentage allocation of water resources, this scenario has completely met the 64 requirements for all water users in the Cau river basin The deficit in 2013 and 2014 can be interpreted as due to the scenario is calculated on the basis of scenario 4, the lack of water should remain in the two years of the period when applying the percentage allocated for integrated water resources plan 5.4 Discussions: In areas with abundant water resources or the need to use limited water, the activities of the water users not affect each other, there is no dispute between the intended use, not need to control use water to achieve social and economic objectives This scenario seems to be impossible in today's society, or if so, only in a few places with few people or in a few countries where resources are extremely abundant in the world Scarce, indispensable, difficult to replace the existing water resources while unevenly distributed features across space and time of water along with the state of population decline and water quality is increasingly complicated changes There have really become worried concern within not only countries but also the international community, where had at the "hot" point on water resources and becoming the current issues, global issues In the current situation, water resources are particularly important role in all fields, water supply different purposes Water resources allocation is particularly important tool for the construction of legal documents, the decision making process, economic and social development and promote sustainable development Thus, allocated water resources and ensure effective and harmonization between water users will ensure economy - society development, environment protection and reduce pressure on the management of water resources Currently, our country has a number of regulations on people’s ownership of water resources, the priority of policy for domestic water supply and encourages investment for this; also have policies about social justice in water supply for people in disadvantaged areas However, there is no mechanism or process, specifying the 65 priority in the allocation of water for mining, water use, which is a general law stating only "ensure equitable principles, the justice " When we consider the prerequisites to ensure such "harmony" and "efficiency"; "Fair" and "reasonable"; "Improved", "stable" and "sustainable development" Obviously, allocation water resources is difficult, complex and sensitive but there is no other way and must to proceed and deployment The question is: when to begin distributed allocated water? or what time to start allocated water? what stage? Was it even in normal conditions or time of beginning water shortage? or in situations where water shortages have been identified? Meaning the problem for water allocation to meet the demand for water stability for immediate use and contribute to long-term in order to achieve the goal: sustainable development, in other words, allocating water resources to response water demand on the basis of agreed allocating percentage of water resources Meanwhile, prospects case, each household receives enough water sector demand (will not be lack of water) Situation of lack of water throughout the system, each sector receives sufficient water was proportionally allocated (mutually dehydrated, but at a level that is acceptable according to the proportion was allocated to shared risk and shared interests between the users) With particular case in Cau river basin, perspective 20 years (2030) picture of water scarcity and water stress levels through the water allocated calculations by the WEAP model, was simulated the level of water shortage in each sector (scenarios 1, 2, 3) Scenario - Combined scenarios with having considered demand management of water use and water development, the water shortages still occur when considering 2030 Scenario - allocation scenario is built based on the scenario with views of reducing the water shortage situation in the future and applying the theory for the percentage of water allocation specified for each water sector These are defined the order of priority for water supply and mining thresholds can be exploited and used (converted into percentage figures to meet the water demand) of the each water sector 66 For the reason that in the absence of water (after having measures of demand management and water resource development), water users cannot or not get enough water needs of their demand, meanwhile, the stakeholder would united giving the order priorities for water allocation and percentages appropriate to incurre the risks by the lack of water, shared costs and common interests, co-existence and development This is the meaning of the water resources planning problem in Vietnam 67 CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Summary and Conclusions With the topic "Integrated water resources planning using the WEAP model in Cau river basin", the thesis has achieved the following results and is able to draw the following conclusions: 1) Studied and analyzed overall integrated water resources planning and the significance of water resources planning; the current research on water resources planning in Vietnam and the world Also, the thesis is study provides an overview of computational models of water resources planning, and in particular WEAP model to re-allocate water resources in Cau river basin; 2) Synthesis and analysis of natural geographical and socio-economic conditions in Cau river basin to divide the basin into sub-basins to re-allocate water resources, as well as a statistic analysis, an assessment and identification of the water demand for each sub-basin; 3) Applying CROPWAT model to calculate the water demand for agriculture of the sub-basins to calculate water allocation in the curent situation, also to prepare the input data for WEAP model; 4) Considering the issues related to water resources in the Cau river basin, identification and calculation of the water demand for all sectors from 2012 to 2030; 5) Research and application of the WEAP model to calculate the water allocation status quo in 2010; water allocation in 2030; development of scenarios of water allocation in the Cau river basin; 6) The results of water allocation in the current situation show that: the amount of water is unevenly distribution over space and time, leading to conflicting water shortages and excess water between seasons and regions In the dry season, the water supply for all water users is still lacking The lack of water mainly focuses 68 in February with a total lack of 41.21 million m3, water shortage is 24.94 million m3 for agriculture and 16.27 million m3 for domestic So, the water resources are supplied about 35% for water demand and the area of serious water shortages in the dry season is the Ca Lo river sub-basin; 7) Finally, this thesis, also a study about the distribution problems and the management of water resources of one basin, includes the experiences and approaches to solving the allocation and sharing of water resources issues in the world The particular focus of this study is the allocation of water resources Under the current legislation of Vietnam, the principle and priorities have been applied to the water shortage situation of the Cau river basin 6.2 Recommendations Since then, the thesis has been drawing the following recommendations: 1) WEAP model: the model showed good applicability to the problem of water allocation, flexibility in the operation of the model, object orientation in the construction simulation system using water extraction, ability to build scripts quickly and intuitively, ability to analyze; the results of WEAP show the prominent advantages of the model; 2) Cau river basin: the results of the water allocation status quo in the Cau river which has a total water shortage are not significant Because the problem in the Cau river basin is not major, because there are not large reservoirs and because the main household water use focuses mainly on the downstream and Ca Lo River However, in terms of spatial extent, the information and the data are perfectly suited to be initially applied to the WEAP model, especially to be applied to test the proportion allocated among water sector use; 3) Allocating and sharing water resources in Cau river basin: this is a new problem, arising from practical requirements and which needs to be resolved before these shortcomings, competitive conflicts in mining and use of water resources between upstream and downstream of water sectors use… Distribution and 69 sharing water content is big and complex, affecting a large number of households using water and is one of the main topics in water resources management of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment In this thesis, the study of the proposed methodology in order of priority and allocation measures gave the percentage allocation of the water shortage situation in Cau river basin for the 2012 to 2030 period to review and to re-allocated water resources Results of model calculations show the application prospects and opens up research opportunities for water allocation in river basins 4) Along with this research, it is necessary to apply economic tools integrated in the WEAP model to calculate the economic efficiency of water sectors use, especially defined benefit, costs through development and water resources allocation plan off to give better suggestions for policy makers in order to have an overview and support than considering all three pillars economic - society environment 6.3 Future works: Future research is essential to improve the scenarios developed and weaknesses in the current methodology This should include: a) Assessment of the social and economic consequences of the different scenarios; b) Impacts of further development and the use of groundwater resources (i.e., conventional aquifers and dewatering of abandoned mines); and c) The possible impacts of climate change; d) Study about planning on protection of water resources, water quality in the Cau river basin; e) Study about planning on prevention, combat and address of consequences of harms caused by water in the Cau river basin 70 REFERENCES • Amani.A and Eric.B (2004) “Modeling water supply and demand for effective water management allocation in the Jordan Valley” JASA Vol.1 • Arranz.R and McCartney.M (2007) “Application of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model to assess future water demands and resources in the Olifants catchment, South Africa” International Water Management Institute IWMI Working Paper 116, 103 pp Colombo, Sri Lanka • Beecher.J (1995) “Integrated Resource Planning, Fundamentals” Journal AWWA, June: 34-48 • Cap-Net (2005) “Integrated water resources management plans Training manual and operational guide” Delft The Netherlands • FAO/Government cooperative program (2011) “Vietnam case study: Study on analysis of sustainable water resources use in the Cau river basin” • Global Water Partnership Technical Committee (GWP-TEC) (2009) “Lessons from Integrated Water Resources Management in Practice, Policy Brief 9” Stockholm, Sweden • GWP (2004) “Guidelines in Preparing a National Integrated Water Resources Management and Efficiency Plan Advancing the WSSD Plan of Implementation” Version Stockholm • Khoi Ha Van (2005) “Giáo trình quy ho ch qu n lý ngu n n c” Agriculture publishing house, Ha Noi • Keyes.A and Palmer.R (1995) “An Assessment of Shared Vision Model Effectiveness in Water Resources Planning” Proceedings of the 22nd Annual National Conference, Water Resources Planning and Management Division of ASCE Cambridge, Massachusetts, 532-535 • Levrte, Sally.H, H’Cour.J (2003) “Testing Water Demand Management Scenarios in a Water-Stressed Basin in South Africa: Application of the WEAP model” Physics and Chemistry of the Eal1h 28: 779-786 • Loon.A, Droogers.P (2006) “Water Evaluation and Planning System, Kitui – Kenya” WatManSup Research Report No • McCartney.M and Arranz.R (2005) “Simulating Water Resource Development in the Olifants Catchment, South Africa” IWMI Theme Working Paper • Minh Vu Van (2013) “Assessment of the impact of climate change on water allocation in the upper Cau river basin Vietnam” Japan • Ministry of Natural resources and Environment, Department of Water Resources Management (2006) “D án u tra tình hình khai thác, s d ng tài nguyên n c x th i vào ngu n n c l u v c sông” • Paul.M, Weintraub, Laura.H, Ewers.Z, Mary.E, Thomas.L and Wilson Cathy.J (2005) “USA Decision Support for Water Planning: The ZeroNet Water-Energy Initiative” Proceedings of the World Water and Environmental Resources Congress 2005 71 • Palmer R (1999) “Modeling Water Resources Opportunities, Challenges, and Trade-offs: The Use of Shared Vision Modeling for Negotiation and Conflict Resolution” Proceedings of the ASCE’s 26th Annual Conference on Water Resources Planning and Management, Tempe, AZ • SEI (Stockholm Environment Institute) (2001) “WEAP: Water evaluation and planning system –user guide” Boston, USA • Sieber.J, Yates.D, Purkey.D and Huber Lee.A (2004) “WEAP: A demand, priority and preference driven water planning model: Part 1: Model characteristics” Submitted to Water International • Statistical Office of Bac Can province (2013) “Bac Can Statistical Yearbook 2012” Statistical Publishing House, Ha Noi • Statistical Office of Bac Giang province (2013) “Bac Giang Statistical Yearbook 2012” Statistical Publishing House, Ha Noi • Statistical Office of Bac Ninh province (2013) “Bac Ninh Statistical Yearbook 2012” Statistical Publishing House, Ha Noi • Statistical Office of Thai Nguyen province (2013) “Thai Nguyen Statistical Yearbook 2012” Statistical Publishing House, Ha Noi • Wurbs and Ralph.A (2005) “Texas Water Availability Modeling System” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, American Society of Civil Engineers 72 APPENDIX Table A-1: The air temperature is the average monthly high and low during the monitoring period in the sub-basins (unit: oC) Table A-2: The average monthly rainfall (1990-2012) (unit: mm) Table A-3: Total average monthly evaporation (mm) 73 Table A-4: The average relative humidity (%) Table A-5: The area of some major crops in the basin Table A-6: Average water use per person per day (l/day) Standard for domestic water supply No Area 2010 2020 2030 Rural 100 120 150 Town 120 150 170 Commune 150 170 200 City 170 200 250 Table A-7: Water demand and percentage of the major water users in the Cau river basin Water users 2012 Demand(106m3) Percentage (%) Agriculture 857.375 81% Domestic 85.582 8% Industry 113.016 11% 74 Figure A-1: Distribution curve of the percentage of water uses in the Cau river basin Figure A-2: Total water demand for all sectors in 2012 75 Figure A-3: Water demand for Upstream Cau river sub-basin in 2012 Figure A-4: Water demand for Cong river sub-basin in 2012 76 Figure A-5: Water demand for Ca Lo river sub-basin in 2012 Figure A-6: Water demand for downstream river sub-basin in 2012 77 Figure A-7: Van Lang reservoir inflows and outflows Figure A-8: Inflows to the Cau river basin from rivers and reservoir ... 5.1: The data for Four Sub-basins in Cau river basin .41 Table 5.2: The main sectors of water used in the Cau river basin 42 Table 5.3: Irrigation water demand in the sub-basins of Cau River. .. studies about water resources planing in Dong Nai river basin or in the Red river basin The basis and principles for water resources planning are applying in Vietnam: In terms of the system of... sub-basins of Cau River basin 42 Table 5.4: Domestic water demand in the sub-basins of Cau River basin .43 Table 5.5: Industrial water demand in the sub-basins of Cau River basin .44 Table 5.6: