Header Page of 166 Bộ giáo dục đào tạo Trờng đại học kinh tế quốc dân - Nguyễn thị cẩm vân Các mô hình phân tích chuyển dịch cấu kinh tế trình công nghiệp hoá, đại hoá đất nớc Chuyên ngành: toán kinh tế Mã số: 62310101 Ngời hớng dẫn khoa học: GS.TS NGUYễN khắc minh Hà nội, 2015 Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 i LI CAM OAN Tụi xin cam oan rng Lun ỏn ny ó c thc hin vi s trung thc t tng quan nghiờn cu n cỏc nghiờn cu nh lng, phõn tớch d liu v bỏo cỏo kt qu Trờn c s tng quan cỏc nghiờn cu, tụi cam oan rng nhng kt qu nghiờn cu lun ỏn ny mt phn l mi, mt phn cng c, khng nh li cỏc kt qu nghiờn cu trc Tụi xin chu trỏch nhim v li cam oan ca mỡnh Tỏc gi lun ỏn Nguyn Th Cm Võn Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 ii LI CM N Tỏc gi xin by t s bit n sõu sc ti GS.TS Nguyn Khc Minh, ngi hng dn khoa hc, ó tn tỡnh hng dn tỏc gi sut quỏ trỡnh thc hin lun ỏn Tỏc gi xin by t lũng bit n sõu sc n GS.TS Trn Th t, PGS TS Nguyn Th Minh v quý thy cụ B mụn Toỏn Kinh t ó úng gúp nhiu ý kin quý bỏu tỏc gi hon thin lun ỏn Tỏc gi xin trõn trng cm n s ng h, to iu kin v giỳp nhit tỡnh ca cỏc ng nghip Khoa Toỏn Kinh t, Trng i hc Kinh t quc dõn sut thi gian hc v nghiờn cu Cm n quý thy cụ ca Vin o to Sau i hc ó to iu kin giỳp tỏc gi quỏ trỡnh hc ti Trng Cui cựng, tỏc gi xin by t s cm n ti nhng ngi thõn gia ỡnh ó ng viờn, khớch l tỏc gi sut quỏ trỡnh hc tp, nghiờn cu v hon thnh lun ỏn Nguyn Th Cm Võn Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 iii MC LC LI CAM OAN i LI CM N ii MC LC iii DANH MC CH VIT TT vi DANH MC BNG BIU vii DANH MC HèNH viii LI M U Chng 1: C S Lí LUN V TNG QUAN NGHIấN CU 1.1 Khỏi nim c cu ngnh kinh t .7 1.2 Khỏi nim chuyn dch c cu ngnh kinh t .8 1.3 Chuyn dch c cu ngnh kinh t quỏ trỡnh CNH, HH 1.3.1 Cụng nghip húa 1.3.2 Cụng nghip hoỏ thay th nhp khu 10 1.3.3 Cụng nghip hoỏ theo hng xut khu .12 1.3.4 Chuyn dch c cu ngnh quỏ trỡnh cụng nghip húa, hin i húa 14 1.4 Cỏc mụ hỡnh lý thuyt v s chuyn dch c cu ngnh kinh t .21 1.4.1 Lý thuyt ct cỏnh ca Walt Rostow .21 1.4.2 Cỏc lý thuyt nh nguyờn 24 1.4.3 Lý thuyt tng trng cõn i .30 1.4.4 Lý thuyt tng trng bt cõn i .32 1.4.5 Mụ hỡnh n ngng bay ca Kaname Akamatsu 35 1.4.6 Lý thuyt chuyn dch c cu kinh t ca Moshe Syrquin 40 1.4.7 Lý thuyt kinh t c cu mi ca Justin Yifu Lin 42 1.4.8 ỏnh giỏ chung cỏc lý thuyt v chuyn dch c cu ngnh kinh t 46 1.5 Tng quan nghiờn cu v s chuyn dch c cu ngnh kinh t .47 1.5.1 Tng quan cỏc nghiờn cu v ngun tng trng u v thay i c cu theo phng phỏp tip cn vo - .47 1.5.2 Tng quan cỏc nghiờn cu v mi quan h gia chuyn dch c cu lao ng theo ngnh v tng trng nng sut lao ng cỏc quc gia trờn th gii50 Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 iv 1.5.3 Tng quan cỏc nghiờn cu s dng cỏc mụ hỡnh kinh t lng ỏnh giỏ tỏc ng ca CDCCN kinh t n tng trng kinh t .56 1.6 Kt lun chng 59 Chng 2: THC TRNG CHUYN DCH C CU NGNH KINH T VIT NAM GIAI ON 1989 - 2014 61 2.1 Mt s chớnh sỏch liờn quan n s chuyn dch c cu ngnh kinh t Vit Nam 61 2.2 C cu GDP, v lao ng theo ngnh ca nn kinh t Vit Nam 72 2.2.1 C cu GDP theo ngnh ca nn kinh t 72 2.2.2 C cu theo ngnh ca nn kinh t 74 2.2.3 C cu lao ng theo ngnh ca nn kinh t 75 2.3 C cu giỏ tr gia tng, xut khu v nhp khu theo ngnh ca nn kinh t 77 2.3.1 C cu giỏ tr gia tng theo ngnh ca nn kinh t .77 2.3.2 C cu xut khu theo ngnh ca nn kinh t 80 2.3.3 C cu nhp khu theo ngnh ca nn kinh t 83 2.4 Nng sut lao ng ca cỏc ngnh v nn kinh t 85 2.4.1 Nng sut lao ng ca cỏc ngnh v nn kinh t 86 2.4.2 Tng trng nng sut lao ng ca cỏc ngnh v nn kinh t 89 2.5 Kt lun chng 89 TểM TT CHNG 92 Chng 3: C S PHNG PHP LUN CC Mễ HèNH PHN TCH CHUYN DCH C CU NGNH KINH T 93 3.1 Mụ hỡnh vo - phõn tớch ngun tng trng u v thay i c cu .93 3.1.1 Mụ hỡnh vo - nn kinh t m .93 3.1.2 Phng phỏp phõn ró xỏc nh ngun tng trng t phớa cu 95 3.1.3 Phõn tớch t phớa cung 96 3.2 Mụ hỡnh c bn phõn tớch vai trũ ca chuyn dch c cu ngnh i vi tng trng nng sut lao ng 99 3.3 Cỏc mụ hỡnh kinh t lng ỏnh giỏ tỏc ng ca CDCCN kinh t n tng trng kinh t .101 Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 v 3.4 S liu s dng cho phõn tớch .104 3.5 S dng mụ hỡnh vo - phõn tớch s chuyn dch c cu ngnh v ngun tng trng sn lng ca cỏc ngnh v nn kinh t Vit Nam thi k 1989 - 2007 105 3.5.1 Ngun tng trng u ca cỏc ngnh v nn kinh t thi k 1989 1996 107 3.5.2 Ngun tng trng u ca cỏc ngnh v nn kinh t thi k 1996 2000 110 3.5.3 Ngun tng trng ca cỏc ngnh v nn kinh t thi k 2000 - 2007 114 3.5.4 So sỏnh khu vc ch bin, ch to ca Vit Nam vi mt s quc gia khu vc v trờn th gii 119 3.5.5 nh hng qua cỏc mi liờn h cụng nghip 126 3.5.6 Ch s thang o liờn ngnh theo mụ hỡnh Ghosh 130 3.6 S dng mụ hỡnh c bn phõn tớch vai trũ ca chuyn dch c cu ngnh i vi tng trng nng sut lao ng Vit Nam thi k 1995 - 2014 134 3.7 Kt qu c lng cỏc mụ hỡnh kinh t lng ỏnh giỏ tỏc ng ca chuyn dch c cu ngnh n tng trng kinh t Vit Nam thi k 1998 - 2011 137 3.8 Kt lun chng 142 TểM TT CHNG 146 KT LUN, MT S KHUYN NGH V XUT HNG NGHIấN CU TIP THEO 147 DANH MC CC CễNG TRèNH NGHIấN CU CA TC GI 157 DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO .158 PH LC Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 vi DANH MC CH VIT TT Ký hiu Gii thớch thut ng ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations Hip hi cỏc quc gia ụng Nam CDCCN Chuyn dch c cu ngnh CNCB Cụng nghip ch bin CNCBCT Cụng nghip ch bin ch to CNH Cụng nghip húa FDI Foreign Direct Investment u t trc tip nc ngoi GDP Gross Domestic Product Tng sn phm quc ni GO Gross Output GSO Tng cc Thng kờ HH Hin i húa NK Nhp khu NICs Cỏc nc cụng nghip hoỏ mi NSL Nng sut lao ng R&D Nghiờn cu v phỏt trin VA Giỏ tr gia tng XK Xut khu Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 vii DANH MC BNG BIU Bng 2.1 T l VA/GO ca cỏc ngnh kinh t Vit Nam, 1995 - 2012 .79 Bng 2.2 T trng XK/GO ca cỏc ngnh v nn kinh t Vit Nam 83 Bng 2.3 So sỏnh mc NSL ca Vit Nam vi mt s quc gia khu vc v trờn th gii 88 Bng 3.1 T l % ca cỏc nhõn t úng gúp vo tng trng sn lng Vit Nam thi k 1989 - 1996 - 2000 - 2007 .106 Bng 3.2 C cu u theo ngnh (% tng u ra) 119 Bng 3.3 Ngun tng trng u ca cỏc ngnh (% tng tng trng u ra) 121 Bng 3.4 Ngun tng trng u ca ngnh CNCBCT mt s quc gia/vựng lónh th 124 Bng 3.5 Mc lan ta v nhy ca cỏc ngnh thi k 1989 - 2007 127 Bng 3.6 Thang o dũng qua cỏc thi k 131 Bng 3.7 Thang o ct qua cỏc thi k 133 Bng 3.8 úng gúp ca chuyn dch c cu lao ng theo ngnh vo tng trng NSL tng th nn kinh t 136 Bng 3.9 So sỏnh ngun úng gúp vo tng trng NSL Vit Nam vi mt s quc gia khu vc 137 Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 viii DANH MC HèNH Hỡnh 1.1 Mụ hỡnh cỏc giai on phỏt trin kinh t ca Rostow 23 Hỡnh 1.2 Mụ hỡnh tng trng nh nguyờn ca Lewis 25 Hỡnh 1.3: Mụ hỡnh n ngng bay 37 Hỡnh 2.1 Tc tng trng GDP ca Vit Nam, 1989 2014 72 Hỡnh 2.2 C cu GDP theo ngnh ca Vit Nam, 1995 2014 73 Hỡnh 2.3 Tc tng trng ca cỏc ngnh kinh t Vit Nam, 1995 - 2014 73 Hỡnh 2.4 C cu ca nn kinh t Vit Nam, 1995 - 2012 (giỏ so sỏnh 2010) 74 Hỡnh 2.5 Tc tng ca cỏc ngnh v nn kinh t Vit Nam, 1995 2012 75 Hỡnh 2.6 C cu lao ng ca nn kinh t Vit Nam, 1995 2014 76 Hỡnh 2.7 C cu giỏ tr gia tng theo ngnh kinh t Vit Nam, 1995 2012 78 Hỡnh 2.8 C cu giỏ tr sn xut theo ngnh kinh t Vit Nam, 1995 2012 78 Hỡnh 2.9 Tc tng VA v GO ngnh cụng nghip Vit Nam, 1995 2012 79 Hỡnh 2.10 Tc tng trng xut khu ca nn kinh t Vit Nam, 1995 2014 .81 Hỡnh 2.11 C cu xut khu theo ngnh ca Vit Nam, 1995 2012 81 Hỡnh 2.12 T trng xut khu ca ngnh CNCBCT Vit Nam, 1995 2012 .82 Hỡnh 2.13 Tc tng trng nhp khu ca nn kinh t Vit Nam, 1995 2014 84 Hỡnh 2.14 C cu nhp khu theo ngnh ca Vit Nam, 1995 2012 84 Hỡnh 2.15 T trng nhp khu ca ngnh CNCBCT Vit Nam, 1995 2012 85 Hỡnh 2.16 Nng sut lao ng ca Vit Nam, 1995-2014 (giỏ so sỏnh 2010) 86 Hỡnh 2.17 NSL ca cỏc ngnh v nn kinh t Vit Nam, 1995-2014 87 Hỡnh 2.18 Tc tng NSL ca cỏc ngnh v nn kinh t Vit Nam, 19952014 89 Hỡnh 3.1 Ngun tng trng nng sut lao ng Vit Nam, 1995 2014 134 Footer Page of 166 Header Page 10 of 166 LI M U Gii thiu lun ỏn Chuyn dch c cu kinh t l mt nhng ch luụn thu hỳt s quan tõm nghiờn cu ca cỏc nh kinh t Cỏc cụng trỡnh nghiờn cu v phỏt trin kinh t, v nhng bi hc kinh nghim cụng nghip húa ca cỏc nc i trc, v phõn tớch chớnh sỏch cụng nghip húa khuyn ngh cho cỏc nc ang phỏt trin i sau u ginh phn thớch ỏng trỡnh by v chuyn dch c cu ngnh kinh t thi k CNH Gn õy, sau nh hng ca cuc khng hong ti chớnh Chõu , c bit l sau cuc khng hong kinh t th gii, khỏ nhiu cỏc cụng trỡnh nghiờn cu mi v ch ny ó xut hin, ú ni lờn xu hng ỏnh giỏ li s chuyn dch c cu kinh t cỏc quc gia, cỏc khu vc kinh t khỏc trờn th gii bi cnh quc t mi Chuyn dch c cu kinh t ó c cp n khỏ nhiu cỏc ti liu nghiờn cu kinh t Vit Nam Tuy nhiờn, cho n nay, s lng cỏc cụng trỡnh cú ni dung nghiờn cu sõu v ch ny cũn rt hn ch ỏng chỳ ý cú mt s nghiờn cu: ca Nguyn Khc Minh (2009) v ngun tng trng v thay i c cu kinh t Vit Nam; v ca Nguyn Th Minh (2009, 2010) v hiu qu phõn b gia cỏc ngnh v v mi quan h gia chuyn dch c cu v tng trng kinh t Vit Nam Cỏc nghiờn cu ó cú Vit Nam v chuyn dch c cu ngnh kinh t ó c gng phõn tớch theo cỏc cỏch tip cn khỏc v thc hin nhng khong thi gian khỏc nhng tỏc gi cha tỡm thy mt nghiờn cu tng hp, s dng cỏc phng phỏp tip cn khỏc o lng thn trng v ỏnh giỏ mt cỏch y , chớnh xỏc din bin ca quỏ trỡnh chuyn dch c cu ngnh kinh t Vit Nam k k t sau i mi Lun ỏn ny hy vng cú th b sung cho cỏc nghiờn cu trc bng cỏch ỏp dng ba phng phỏp tip cn khỏc lm sỏng t khuụn mu tng trng v thay i c cu ngnh v nn kinh t Vit Nam giai on 1989 2014 Cu trỳc ca lun ỏn gm ba chng, c b trớ nh sau: sau phn m u, chng trỡnh by c s lý lun v s CDCCN kinh t quỏ trỡnh CNH, HH, v tng quan cỏc lý thuyt v cỏc nghiờn cu v s CDCCN kinh t; chng trỡnh by thc trng CDCCN kinh t Vit Nam giai on 1989 - 2014; tip theo, Footer Page 10 of 166 Header Page 172 of 166 56 163 John Cornwall, Wendy Cornwall (2001), A demand and supply analysis of productivity growth 57 Justin Yifu Lin (2010), Lý thuyt kinh t c cu mi: C s xem xột li s phỏt trin, Washington, DC: Ngõn hng th gii 58 Kojima, Kiyoshi (2000a), Re - consideration: The flying geese partern of economic development, In: Surudagai Daigaku Keizaigakubu, March, pp 75 - 136 59 Kojima, Kiyoshi (2000b), The flying geese model of Asian economic development: origin, theoretical extentions, and regional policy implications, Journal 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Syrquin, M (2007), Kuznets and Pasinetti on the study of structural transformation: Never the Twain shall meet?, ICER, Working Paper No 46 91 Syrquin, M (2012), Changes in the economic structure of the world economy, ICER, Working Paper Series 92 Swati Mehta (2012), Structural Transformation and Industrialization: A Panel Analyses of Indian Manufacturing Industries, Journal of Comparative Asian Development, Volume 11, Issue Footer Page 174 of 166 Header Page 175 of 166 166 93 Temple, J and Voth, H-J (1997), Human Capital, equipment investment, and industrialization, European Economic Review, 42 (7): 1343-62 94 Timmer, P and S Akkus (2008), The Structural Transformation as a Pathway out of Poverty: Analytics, Empirics and Politics, Working Paper Number 150, Centre for Global Development 95 Timmer, M.P and A Szirmai (2000), Productivity in Asian Manufacturing: The structural Bonus Hypothesis Examined, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 11 96 Urata, S (1987), Sources of economic growth and structural change in China: 1956 - 81, Journal of Comparative Economics, 11: 96 - 115 97 Yilimaz Kilicaslan (2005) Industrial structure and labour markets: a study on productivity growth 98 http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:iUHagtVvDWoJ:toith ichdoc.blogspot.com/2011/05/tiet-kiem-au-tu-trong-tien-trinh-tang_76.html +&cd=1&hl=vi&ct=clnk&gl=vn 99 http://dangcongsan.vn/cpv/Modules/News/NewsDetail.aspx?co_id=30111&cn _id=694222 Footer Page 175 of 166 Header Page 176 of 166 PH LC Ph lc Bng 1A Ngun úng gúp vo tng trng sn lng Vit Nam 1989 - 1996 n v: triu ng (giỏ so sỏnh nm 2000) STT Ngnh DD EE IS IO total Nụng nghip 21843343.14 17801721.55 -9862699.683 21885988.42 51668353.42 Lõm nghip 94369.87261 -101813.2848 -464746.8944 983433.9569 511243.6504 Thu sn 13870394.58 Khai khoỏng 3145268.481 10626474.72 1676859.527 1954022.901 17402625.63 Sn xut, ch bin thc phm 51056062.96 28248849.85 8787514.544 -21687389.66 66405037.7 Sn xut ung, thuc lỏ 5731398.108 1063510.973 -387685.5065 -1201223.622 5205999.953 6653154.61 1158251.565 -4806585.648 16875215.1 Dt, sn xut trang phc, da v cỏc sn phm liờn quan 2825332.784 18881977.64 821821.849 -3023160.012 19505972.26 Ch bin g v sn xut cỏc sn phm t g 5152627.737 5598980.769 -362.6852409 -896976.3312 9854269.489 Sn xut giy v cỏc sn phm t giy, sn phm ca nh xut bn 4507101.195 745083.6801 -900621.2666 -310755.6959 4040807.913 Sn xut hoỏ cht v cỏc sn 10 phm hoỏ cht 1543819.32 1671557.894 1938691.863 11 Thuc, hoỏ dc v dc liu 611257.6417 12 Cao su, plastic 1298769.688 1507560.543 -640037.4444 1165857.41 6319926.487 90179.7697 720914.4662 -23176.41465 1399175.463 404354.048 2570646.835 Sn xut cỏc sn phm t 13 khoỏng phi kim loi khỏc 9912793.574 1885389.159 -2162583.432 2274231.617 11909830.92 Sn xut kim loi v cỏc sn 14 phm t kim loi ỳc sn 4923500.118 491705.7195 1362742.494 -485873.1 6292075.231 Sn xut cỏc sn phm in, in t, mỏy vi tớnh, sn phm 15 quang hc 4100633.445 2690965.208 -1415242.94 283479.6866 16 Cỏc ngnh cụng nghip khỏc 1036498.493 -110467.2445 10712053.66 17 Sn xut in, nc, khớ t 6309501.76 5659835.4 727693.811 12365778.72 2982987.72 5873711.159 -1377907.569 13788293.07 18 Xõy dng 39495485.85 458744.0255 19906.35118 -1591889.344 38382246.88 19 Thng nghip 7192915.293 20 Vn ti 2832149.902 5768911.806 -3488837.51 5895667.786 11007891.98 21 Dch v lu trỳ, n ung 7924742.797 5813355.948 -3506086.092 2639660.328 12871672.98 8056255.63 56554.58525 8355565.486 23661290.99 Hot ng ngõn hng, ti chớnh, 22 bo him 2886408.295 3854627.509 -2735115.461 1696639.465 5702559.809 23 Thụng tin v truyn thụng 1087210.384 1064921.407 -313362.0635 2171749.78 4010519.507 Hot ng chuyờn mụn, khoa 24 hc v cụng ngh 1537633.89 279746.2021 -319816.9993 -35786.57318 1461776.519 25 Vn hoỏ, giỏo dc, y t 18527208.96 1521871.905 -1362552.263 1410380.501 20096909.1 26 Cỏc dch v khỏc 35203661.99 Footer Page 176 of 166 2546188.73 -1874085.577 2485418.134 38361183.28 Header Page 177 of 166 Bng 1b Ngun úng gúp vo tng trng sn lng Vit Nam 1996 - 2000 n v: triu ng (giỏ so sỏnh nm 2000) STT Ngnh DD EE IS IO total Nụng nghip 15836390.14 13013178.96 6873349.053 -5226667.54 30496250.62 Lõm nghip 1900401.135 1366992.415 -297860.0157 -1521115.34 1448418.194 Thu sn 4220469.875 2816980.41 66734.78805 109089.8013 7213274.875 Khai khoỏng 5045661.974 41121369.81 -1595048.981 -6189253.62 38382729.18 Sn xut, ch bin thc phm 16329699.06 12644058.57 -150560.7688 8054549.116 36877745.97 Sn xut ung, thuc lỏ 10108065.85 57868.90861 -817444.8181 1441627.639 10790117.58 Dt, sn xut trang phc, da v cỏc sn phm liờn quan 8321155.624 32752493.22 3672393.168 5990804.686 50736846.7 Ch bin g v sn xut cỏc sn phm t g 3095622.064 1994855.651 -949847.4941 -6585475.41 -2444845.19 Sn xut giy v cỏc sn phm t giy, sn phm ca nh xut bn 3056277.773 1170331.399 221261.2409 923164.1555 5371034.568 Sn xut hoỏ cht v cỏc sn 10 2976443.988 2486387.271 3769076.323 -2874338.1 6357569.482 11 Thuc, hoỏ dc v dc liu phm hoỏ cht 1487294.263 342288.0607 11885.99359 -189476.11 1651992.208 12 Cao su, plastic 1511299.578 1373948.355 3093993.395 2812683.746 8791925.074 Sn xut cỏc sn phm t khoỏng 13 phi kim loi khỏc 8917926.7 594236.2152 1557344.238 -1150093.98 9919413.172 Sn xut kim loi v cỏc sn 14 phm t kim loi ỳc sn 22190.17562 3368396.638 10197042.63 -2672449.18 10915180.26 Sn xut cỏc sn phm in, in t, mỏy vi tớnh, sn phm 15 quang hc 16 Cỏc ngnh cụng nghip khỏc -359281.5034 7299852.682 -982640.2862 -1818517.93 4139412.966 23647043.9 15586781.85 -46481407.98 29794851.48 22547269.25 17 Sn xut in, nc, khớ t 6145608.629 7479737.617 -12398753.95 2117442.131 3344034.422 18 Xõy dng 40953404.23 778858.656 -373453.3526 -3303274.14 38055535.39 19 Thng nghip 29019882.9 21822781.79 -35627962.31 29687346.7 44902049.07 20 Vn ti 7407889.569 6842216.313 -4457134.857 -6356641.84 3436329.182 21 Dch v lu trỳ, n ung 3319355.891 8251170.73 -17965.16631 -168828.884 11383732.57 Hot ng ngõn hng, ti chớnh, 22 bo him 1014210.541 2797954.629 -2726185.995 646887.9429 1732867.119 23 Thụng tin v truyn thụng 1822582.933 2567556.037 588521.8403 1637530.31 6616191.121 Hot ng chuyờn mụn, khoa 24 hc v cụng ngh 1694524.89 2196404.459 -296668.5722 -1473692.33 2120568.446 25 Vn hoỏ, giỏo dc, y t 17776280.01 1653673.282 -5002959.977 -748161.228 13678832.09 26 Cỏc dch v khỏc 4164575.948 7514558.109 -269864.0416 5745363.552 17154633.57 Footer Page 177 of 166 Header Page 178 of 166 Bng 1C Ngun úng gúp vo tng trng sn lng Vit Nam 1996 - 2000 n v: triu ng (giỏ so sỏnh nm 2000) STT Ngnh DD EE IS IO Total Nụng nghip -20816413.2 35176072.26 -16821312.19 17989768.06 15528114.93 Lõm nghip 3351908.798 -40546.29296 -2627239.127 857728.4596 1541851.838 Thu sn Khai khoỏng 540221.4463 14789746.3 -971042.562 10454768.17 24813693.35 -7206938.731 4066726.944 -978761.7163 405351.5862 -3713621.92 Sn xut, ch bin thc phm -38555232.4 59542651.46 -13040479.83 93029436.62 100976375.8 Sn xut ung, thuc lỏ 9178230.917 12602855.14 -4124.63586 -967158.6651 20809802.75 20015402.53 31735595.35 -4751099.433 7660133.583 54660032.04 -2618241.556 -180924.4099 -692300.7812 8572511.944 5081045.196 6149039.349 6305129.731 -1187716.304 5943695.297 17210148.07 Dt, sn xut trang phc, da v cỏc sn phm liờn quan Ch bin g v sn xut cỏc sn phm t g Sn xut giy v cỏc sn phm t giy, sn phm ca nh xut bn 10 Sn xut hoỏ cht v cỏc sn phm hoỏ cht 16070302.8 26374011.99 -23884328.62 16959610.92 35519597.09 11 Thuc, hoỏ dc v dc liu 1654353.784 2164523.858 -623937.8231 4248942.116 7443881.936 12 Cao su, plastic 5426958.899 34440398.47 3694517.309 -7398133.75 36163740.92 13 Sn xut cỏc sn phm t khoỏng phi kim loi khỏc -9989660.122 32034841.9 431645.1156 15488745.59 37965572.48 4911320.325 80006731.47 -41569532.33 46772158.82 90120678.28 15 in t, mỏy vi tớnh, sn phm quang hc 30562062.96 1113534.285 72112108.61 -5017195.534 98770510.33 16 Cỏc ngnh cụng nghip khỏc 80456681.76 102197610.7 -75138333.12 6585803.241 114101762.6 17 Sn xut in, nc, khớ t 10618517.11 6511949.666 38949813.01 -18769062.7 37311217.09 18 Xõy dng 85205188.88 -0.092282692 -0.091655075 15392898.43 100598087.1 19 Thng nghip 23698319.68 19670486.77 44647160.76 -25138899.68 62877067.53 20 Vn ti 11255182.4 -1350398.323 16797808.81 11673770.45 38376363.34 21 Dch v lu trỳ, n ung 19379343.36 -1739837.812 7164723.865 3490656.554 28294885.96 22 Hot ng ngõn hng, ti chớnh, bo him 5442124.465 -1360407.079 12224060.54 -648746.5224 15657031.4 23 Thụng tin v truyn thụng 10042292.1 -686187.4677 114020.1892 -1076831.088 8393293.734 24 Hot ng chuyờn mụn, khoa hc v cụng ngh 3572734.101 906442.7084 340910.1612 5209101.909 10029188.88 25 Vn hoỏ, giỏo dc, y t 30524297.92 161260.2221 351568.8773 304024.3036 31341151.32 26 Cỏc dch v khỏc 36655527.43 4233817.097 4725079.834 -17345420.77 28269003.59 Sn xut kim loi v cỏc sn 14 phm t kim loi ỳc sn Sn xut cỏc sn phm in, Footer Page 178 of 166 Header Page 179 of 166 Ph lc Danh sỏch cỏc bin c s dng cỏc mụ hỡnh kinh t lng Tờn bin Gii thớch ý ngha LnGDP Logarit ca GDP LnGDPnn Logarit ca GDP nụng nghip LnGDPcn Logarit ca GDP cụng nghip LnGDPdv Logarit ca GDP dch v lnGDPpnn Logarit ca GDP phi nụng nghip Lnk Logarit ca Lnl Logarit ca lao ng Lnknn Logarit ca nụng nghip Lnlnn Logarit ca lao ng nụng nghip Lnkcn Logarit ca cụng nghip Lnlcn Logarit ca lao ng cụng nghip Lnkdv Logarit ca dch v Lnldv Logarit ca lao ng dch v Lnkpnn Logarit ca phi nụng nghip Lnlpnn Logarit ca lao ng phi nụng nghip Knn T trng nụng nghip tng Kcn T trng cụng nghip tng Kdv T trng dch v tng l_nn T trng lao ng nụng nghip tng lao ng l_cn T trng lao ng cụng nghip tng lao ng l_dv T trng lao ng dch v tng lao ng Footer Page 179 of 166 Header Page 180 of 166 Ph lc Cỏc kt qu kim nh v c lng mụ hỡnh 3.3b Ph lc 3.1 Kt qu kim nh Hausman mụ hỡnh 3.3b Coefficients (b) (B) fe 3883056 3349456 6539639 4956819 1.582328 6905366 lnk lnl kcn kdv l_cn l_dv 3859241 3887913 5863296 4398443 1.625884 824321 (b-B) Difference 0023815 -.0538457 0676344 0558376 -.0435557 -.1337844 sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) S.E .0100968 0108774 0092966 0338253 0473217 b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(6) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 29.86 Prob>chi2 = 0.0000 (V_b-V_B is not positive definite) Ph lc 3.2 Kt qu kim nh Wald cú sa i cho mụ hỡnh 3.3b Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity in fixed effect regression model H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all i chi2 (60) = Prob>chi2 = 1907.09 0.0000 Ph lc 3.3 Kim nh hin tng t tng quan chui Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data H0: no first-order autocorrelation F( 1, 59) = 80.517 Prob > F = 0.0000 Ph lc 3.4 Kim nh hin tng t tng quan chộo Pesaran's test of cross sectional independence = Footer Page 180 of 166 26.381, Pr = 0.0000 Header Page 181 of 166 Ph lc 3.5 Kt qu c lng mụ hỡnh 3.3b Regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors Method: Fixed-effects regression Group variable (i): idd maximum lag: lngdp Coef lnk lnl kcn kdv l_cn l_dv _cons 3883056 3349456 6539639 4956819 1.582328 6905366 7.166433 Drisc/Kraay Std Err .0273147 1230155 0781281 0687442 2545825 3093837 1.575132 t 14.22 2.72 8.37 7.21 6.22 2.23 4.55 Number Number F( 6, Prob > within of obs of groups 59) F R-squared = = = = = 840 60 1059.27 0.0000 0.8532 P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.029 0.000 3336491 0887921 49763 3581251 1.07291 0714612 4.014602 4429621 581099 8102978 6332387 2.091747 1.309612 10.31826 Ph lc Cỏc kt qu c lng v kim nh mụ hỡnh 3.3c Ph lc 4.1 Kt qu kim nh Hausman mụ hỡnh 3.3c Coefficients (b) (B) fe lnknn lnlnn kcn kdv l_cn l_dv 1555761 2059609 1.227763 1.087699 9873372 826749 1568009 255197 1.170507 1.032395 1.044673 8607733 (b-B) Difference -.0012248 -.0492361 0572552 0553045 -.0573363 -.0340244 sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) S.E .0009588 0068333 0125255 0110264 0361719 0382472 b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(6) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 93.39 Prob>chi2 = 0.0000 Ph lc 4.2 Kt qu kim nh Wald cú sa i cho mụ hỡnh 3.3c Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity in fixed effect regression model H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all i chi2 (60) = Prob>chi2 = Footer Page 181 of 166 9944.60 0.0000 Header Page 182 of 166 Ph lc 4.3 Kim nh hin tng t tng quan mụ hỡnh 3.3c Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data H0: no first-order autocorrelation F( 1, 59) = 148.493 Prob > F = 0.0000 Ph lc 4.4 Kim nh hin tng tng quan chộo mụ hỡnh 3.3c Pesaran's test of cross sectional independence = 14.697, Pr = 0.0000 Ph lc 4.5 Kt qu c lng mụ hỡnh 3.3c Regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors Method: Fixed-effects regression Group variable (i): idd maximum lag: lngdpnn Coef lnknn lnlnn kcn kdv l_cn l_dv _cons 1555761 2059609 1.227763 1.087699 9873372 826749 9.462313 Footer Page 182 of 166 Number Number F( 6, Prob > within Drisc/Kraay Std Err t P>|t| 0321806 0952302 1581312 1379096 1309692 4970552 1.073272 4.83 2.16 7.76 7.89 7.54 1.66 8.82 0.000 0.035 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.102 0.000 of obs of groups 59) F R-squared = = = = = 840 60 1209.77 0.0000 0.6039 [95% Conf Interval] 0911828 0154056 9113429 8117428 7252684 -.1678561 7.314701 2199693 3965161 1.544182 1.363656 1.249406 1.821354 11.60993 Header Page 183 of 166 Ph lc Cỏc kt qu c lng v kim nh mụ hỡnh 3.3d Ph lc 5.1 Kt qu kim nh Hausman Coefficients (b) (B) fe lnkcn lnlcn knn kdv l_nn l_dv 5474714 251543 2251141 1.206231 -.903469 -.1048092 5448729 284946 2644182 1.174335 -.8521501 -.0364257 (b-B) Difference 0025986 -.033403 -.0393041 0318958 -.051319 -.0683835 sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) S.E .002747 0124937 0313306 0177291 061038 0914554 b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(6) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 16.27 Prob>chi2 = 0.0124 Ph lc 5.2 Kt qu kim nh Wald cú sa i cho mụ hỡnh 3.3d Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity in fixed effect regression model H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all i chi2 (60) = Prob>chi2 = 3333.89 0.0000 Ph lc 5.3 Kt qu kim nh hin tng t tng quan chui mụ hỡnh 3.3d Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data H0: no first-order autocorrelation F( 1, 59) = 48.827 Prob > F = 0.0000 Ph lc 5.4 Kt qu kim nh hin tng tng quan chộo mụ hỡnh 3.3d Pesaran's test of cross sectional independence = Footer Page 183 of 166 16.752, Pr = 0.0000 Header Page 184 of 166 Ph lc 5.5 Kt qu c lng mụ hỡnh 3.3d Regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors Method: Fixed-effects regression Group variable (i): idd maximum lag: lngdpcn Coef lnkcn lnlcn knn kdv l_nn l_dv _cons 5474714 251543 2251141 1.206231 -.903469 -.1048092 7.789727 Drisc/Kraay Std Err .0310713 0613165 2067762 1645498 3982542 6684156 8761404 t 17.62 4.10 1.09 7.33 -2.27 -0.16 8.89 Number Number F( 6, Prob > within P>|t| 0.000 0.000 0.281 0.000 0.027 0.876 0.000 of obs of groups 59) F R-squared = = = = = 840 60 13009.64 0.0000 0.8539 [95% Conf Interval] 4852978 128849 -.1886441 8769674 -1.700374 -1.442306 6.036574 6096451 374237 6388724 1.535494 -.1065643 1.232687 9.54288 Ph lc Cỏc kt qu c lng v kim nh mụ hỡnh 3.3e Ph lc 6.1 Kt qu kim nh Hausman mụ hỡnh 3.3e Coefficients (b) (B) fe 4526607 2958298 4159579 1.153264 6399855 1.96643 lnkdv lnldv knn kcn l_nn l_cn 4473137 4061485 4682255 1.025248 5594209 1.92882 (b-B) Difference 005347 -.1103187 -.0522675 128016 0805646 0376102 sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) S.E .0170701 0244872 0129744 1287776 14047 b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(6) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 155.24 Prob>chi2 = 0.0000 (V_b-V_B is not positive definite) Ph lc 6.2 Kt qu kim nh Wald cú sa i mụ hỡnh 3.3e Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity in fixed effect regression model H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all i chi2 (60) = Prob>chi2 = 3397.17 0.0000 Footer Page 184 of 166 Header Page 185 of 166 Ph lc 6.3 Kt qu kim nh hin tng t tng quan chui mụ hỡnh 3.3e Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data H0: no first-order autocorrelation F( 1, 59) = 28.834 Prob > F = 0.0000 Ph lc 6.4 Kt qu kim nh hin tng tng quan chộo mụ hỡnh 3.3e Pesaran's test of cross sectional independence = 29.937, Pr = 0.0000 Ph lc 6.5 Kt qu c lng mụ hỡnh 3.3e Regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors Method: Fixed-effects regression Group variable (i): idd maximum lag: lngdpdv Coef lnkdv lnldv knn kcn l_nn l_cn _cons 4526607 2958298 4159579 1.153264 6399855 1.96643 6.596905 Drisc/Kraay Std Err .037902 1217808 1090887 14149 486253 4619277 1.691577 t 11.94 2.43 3.81 8.15 1.32 4.26 3.90 Number Number F( 6, Prob > within of obs of groups 59) F R-squared P>|t| 0.000 0.018 0.000 0.000 0.193 0.000 0.000 = = = = = 840 60 653.43 0.0000 0.8214 [95% Conf Interval] 3768191 052147 1976718 8701431 -.3330046 1.042115 3.212067 5285024 5395125 634244 1.436385 1.612976 2.890745 9.981744 Ph lc Cỏc kt qu c lng v kim nh mụ hỡnh 3.3f Ph lc 7.1 Kt qu kim nh Hausman mụ hỡnh 3.3f Coefficients (b) (B) fe lnkpnn lnlpnn kcn l_cn 5142259 292322 2477455 1.041036 5066441 3519616 2146264 1.035435 (b-B) Difference 0075818 -.0596396 0331191 0056006 sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) S.E .0017234 0120798 0138667 0575579 b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(4) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 26.89 Prob>chi2 = 0.0000 (V_b-V_B is not positive definite) Footer Page 185 of 166 Header Page 186 of 166 Ph lc 7.2 Kim nh Wald cú sa i cho mụ hỡnh 3.3f Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity in fixed effect regression model H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all i chi2 (60) = Prob>chi2 = 4895.00 0.0000 Ph lc 7.3 Kim nh hin tng t tng quan chui mụ hỡnh 3.3f Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data H0: no first-order autocorrelation F( 1, 59) = 67.509 Prob > F = 0.0000 Ph lc 7.4 Kim nh hin tng tng quan chộo mụ hỡnh 3.3f Pesaran's test of cross sectional independence = 28.459, Pr = 0.0000 Ph lc 7.5 Kt qu c lng mụ hỡnh 3.3f Regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors Method: Fixed-effects regression Group variable (i): idd maximum lag: lngdppnn Coef lnkpnn lnlpnn kcn l_cn _cons 5142259 292322 2477455 1.041036 7.340163 Footer Page 186 of 166 Drisc/Kraay Std Err .0354776 1053244 0861287 4185792 1.1326 t 14.49 2.78 2.88 2.49 6.48 Number Number F( 4, Prob > within of obs of groups 59) F R-squared = = = = = 840 60 962.47 0.0000 0.8570 P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] 0.000 0.007 0.006 0.016 0.000 4432355 0815684 0754024 203461 5.073835 5852163 5030756 4200886 1.878611 9.60649 ... cứu: Các mô hình phân tích chuyển dịch cấu kinh tế trình công nghiệp hoá, đại hoá đất nước cần thiết Mục tiêu nghiên cứu Mục tiêu luận án sử dụng mô hình định lượng để phân tích chuyển dịch cấu. .. án Chuyển dịch cấu kinh tế chủ đề thu hút quan tâm nghiên cứu nhà kinh tế Các công trình nghiên cứu phát triển kinh tế, học kinh nghiệm công nghiệp hóa nước trước, phân tích sách công nghiệp hóa. .. cho trình CNH, HĐH đất nước Nghiên cứu vào trả lời câu hỏi nghiên cứu sau đây:  Sự chuyển dịch cấu ngành kinh tế diễn trình công nghiệp hóa, đại hóa đất nước giai đoạn 1989 - 2014?  Tác động chuyển