Header Page of 258 Bộ giáo dục đào tạo Trờng đại học kinh tế quốc dân Hoàng Thủy Yến tác động bất bình đẳng thu nhập đến tăng trởng kinh tế Việt Nam Chuyên ngành: Kinh tế học Mã số: 62.31.03.01 Ngời hớng dẫn khoa học: PGS.TS NGUYễN VĂN CÔNG PGS.TS LÊ QUốC HộI Hà nội, năm 2015 Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 i LI CAM OAN Tụi xin cam oan õy l cụng trỡnh nghiờn cu ca riờng tụi Cỏc s liu, kt qu nờu lun ỏn l trung thc v cú ngun gc rừ rng Tỏc gi lun ỏn HONG THY YN Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 ii MC LC LI CAM OAN i MC LC ii DANH MC CC CH VIT TT .v DANH MC CC BNG vii DANH MC CC HèNH ix M U CHNG 1: C S Lí LUN V THC TIN V TC NG CA BT BèNH NG THU NHP N TNG TRNG KINH T 16 1.1 Mt s lý lun c bn v bt bỡnh ng thu nhp 16 1.1.1 Khỏi nim v bt bỡnh ng thu nhp .16 1.1.2 o lng bt bỡnh ng thu nhp 17 1.1.3 Cỏc nguyờn nhõn ca bt bỡnh ng thu nhp 20 1.2 Mt s lý lun c bn v tng trng kinh t 23 1.2.1 Khỏi nim tng trng kinh t 23 1.2.2 o lng tng trng kinh t 24 1.2.3 Cỏc nhõn t nh hng n tng trng kinh t 25 1.3 Cỏc lý thuyt v tỏc ng ca bt bỡnh ng thu nhp n tng trng kinh t 29 1.3.1 Tỏc ng tớch cc ca bt bỡnh ng thu nhp n tng trng kinh t 31 1.3.2 Tỏc ng tiờu cc ca bt bỡnh ng thu nhp n tng trng kinh t 32 1.4 Kinh nghim quc t v gii quyt mi quan h gia phõn phi thu nhp v tng trng kinh t 36 1.4.1 Kinh nghim Braxin .36 1.4.2 Kinh nghim Hn Quc 38 1.4.3 Kinh nghim Trung Quc .41 1.4.4 Cỏc bi hc kinh nghim chung .43 CHNG 2: THC TRNG MI QUAN H GIA BT BèNH NG THU NHP V TNG TRNG KINH T VIT NAM 49 2.1 Thc trng bt bỡnh ng thu nhp Vit Nam 49 Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 iii 2.1.1 Thc trng bt bỡnh ng chung .49 2.1.2 Bt bỡnh ng thu nhp theo khu vc thnh th v nụng thụn 52 2.1.3 Bt bỡnh ng thu nhp theo vựng a lý 55 2.1.4 Bt bỡnh ng theo h s GINI .56 2.1.5 Bt bỡnh ng tip cn mt s dch v xó hi c bn 61 2.1.6 Nguyờn nhõn ca bt bỡnh ng thu nhp Vit Nam 72 2.2 Thc trng tng trng kinh t Vit Nam 76 2.2.1 Xu hng tng trng kinh t 76 2.2.2 Cht lng tng trng kinh t 78 2.3 Thc trng mi quan h gia bt bỡnh ng thu nhp v tng trng kinh t Vit Nam 87 2.3.1 Mt s ch trng, chớnh sỏch ca ng v Nh nc v kt hp gia tng trng kinh t vi thc hin cụng bng xó hi 87 2.3.2 Thc trng mi quan h gia bt bỡnh ng thu nhp v tng trng kinh t Vit Nam 97 2.4 ỏnh giỏ chung v thc trng mi quan h gia bt bỡnh ng thu nhp v tng trng kinh t 105 CHNG 3: C LNG TC NG CA BT BèNH NG THU NHP TI TNG TRNG KINH T VIT NAM 111 3.1 Xỏc nh mụ hỡnh v phng phỏp c lng 111 3.1.1 Mụ hỡnh c lng 111 3.1.2 Phng phỏp c lng 112 3.2 S liu 116 3.3 Thng kờ v phõn phi xỏc sut ca cỏc bin mụ hỡnh 117 3.4 Mi quan h gia bin ph thuc v mt s bin gii thớch 122 3.5 Kt qu c lng hi quy 125 3.5.1 Tỏc ng ca bt bỡnh ng thu nhp (o lng bng h s GINI) n tng trng kinh t 125 3.5.2 Tỏc ng ca bt bỡnh ng thu nhp (o lng bng khong cỏch nhúm giu nht/nhúm nghốo nht) n tng trng kinh t 130 Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 iv CHNG 4: QUAN IM V GII PHP TN DNG TC NG TCH CC V HN CH TC NG TIấU CC CA V BT BèNH NG THU NHP N TNG TRNG KINH T .133 4.1 Quan im tn dng tỏc ng tớch cc v hn ch tỏc ng tiờu cc ca bt bỡnh ng thu nhp n tng trng kinh t 133 4.1.1 Quan im tng quỏt 133 4.1.2 Quan im c th 134 4.2 C hi v thỏch thc cho vic tn dng tỏc ng tớch cc v hn ch tỏc ng tiờu cc ca bt bỡnh ng thu nhp n tng trng kinh t Vit Nam 139 4.2.1 C hi 139 4.2.2 Thỏch thc 140 4.3 Gii phỏp tn dng tỏc ng tớch cc v hn ch tỏc ng tiờu cc ca bt bỡnh ng thu nhp n tng trng kinh t 142 4.3.1 Hon thin th ch kinh t th trng nh hng XHCN m bo gn kt hp lý gia tng trng kinh t v cụng bng xó hi .143 4.3.2 Xõy dng v thc hin mụ hỡnh tng trng cụng bng vỡ ngi nghốo 145 4.3.3 iu chnh c cu u t xó hi 145 4.3.4 Phỏt trin kinh t t nhõn .146 4.3.5 m bo ngi dõn c chia s thnh qu ca s phỏt trin bng cỏch quan tõm ti ba lnh vc trng yu: giỏo dc, y t, v an sinh xó hi 148 4.3.6 Cn cú nhng chớnh sỏch di dõn thớch hp 149 4.3.7 Ci cỏch chớnh sỏch phõn phi ti sn, thu nhp v c hi phỏt trin nn kinh t theo hng phi m bo cụng bng v hng n ngi nghốo 150 KT LUN 152 NHNG CễNG TRèNH CễNG B CA TC GI LIấN QUAN N LUN N .156 DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO .157 PH LC .163 Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 v DANH MC CC CH VIT TT Vit tt Nguyờn ting Vit ASEAN Hip hi cỏc nc ụng Nam ASXH An sinh xó hi CNTB Ch ngha t bn GDP Tng sn phm quc ni HDI Ch s Phỏt trin Con ngi ILO T chc Lao ng quc t IMF Qu tin t quc t L-TB&XH Lao ng Thng binh v Xó hi NICs Cỏc nc cụng nghip mi TCTK Tng cc thng kờ TNTB Thu nhp trung bỡnh TW Trung ng VHLSS iu tra mc sng h gia ỡnh Vit Nam WB Ngõn hng th gii XHCN Xó hi ch ngha OLS Phng phỏp bỡnh phng nh nht GINI H s bt bỡnh ng phõn phi thu nhp UBND y ban nhõn dõn NSNN Ngõn sỏch Nh nc XGN Xúa gim nghốo BHXH Bo him xó hi BHYT Bo him y t Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 vi Vit tt Nguyờn ting Vit TNDN Thu nhp doanh nghip EU Liờn minh Chõu u AFTA Khu vc mu dch t ASEAN WTO T chc thng mi th gii ICOR Hiu qu s dng u t TFP Nng sut cỏc nhõn t tng hp KHXH Khoa hc xó hi DTTS Dõn tc thiu s TD&MNPB Trung du v nỳi phớa Bc BTB&DHMT Bc trung b v duyờn hi trung BSH ng bng sụng Hng XDCB Xõy dng c bn CBXH Cụng bng xó hi Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 vii DANH MC CC BNG Bng 1.1: H s Gini ca Braxin 37 Bng 2.1: Thu nhp bỡnh quõn u ngi theo nhúm h gia ỡnh 49 Bng 2.2: Chi tiờu vo i sng phõn theo loi h 51 Bng 2.3: T trng cỏc khon chi tiờu cho i sng chia theo khon chi 51 Bng 2.4: Thu nhp bỡnh quõn u ngi theo thnh th/nụng thụn v nhúm h 53 Bng 2.5: Tng chi tiờu bỡnh quõn nhõn khu thỏng theo thnh th nụng thụn 54 Bng 2.6: T trng cỏc khon chi tiờu cho i sng thnh th v nụng thụn 54 Bng 2.7: Thu nhp bỡnh quõn u ngi v chờnh lch thu nhp (nghỡn ng) 55 Bng 2.8: Bt bỡnh ng thu nhp theo h s GINI ti mt s quc gia 57 Bng 2.9: H s Gini phõn phi thu nhp chia theo thnh th nụng thụn 60 Bng 2.10: T l i hc chung theo cp hc, thnh th - nụng thụn v nhúm thu nhp nm 2010 62 Bng 2.11: Tip cn giỏo dc theo loi trng ang hc, thnh th - nụng thụn v nhúm thu nhp nm 2010 63 Bng 2.12: Chi giỏo dc, o to bỡnh quõn ngi i hc 12 thỏng qua theo loi trng, nhúm thu nhp, thnh th-nụng thụn, 2010 64 Bng 2.13: C cu lt ngi khỏm cha bnh 12 thỏng qua theo hỡnh thc khỏm cha bnh, thnh th-nụng thụn v nhúm thu nhp 66 Bng 2.14: C cu lt ngi khỏm cha bnh ni trỳ theo loi c s y t, thnh thnụng thụn v nhúm thu nhp 67 Bng 2.15: C cu h cú nh theo loi nh, thnh th-nụng thụn v nhúm thu nhp, 2010 68 Bng 2.16: C cu h chia theo ngun thp sỏng chớnh ca h, thnh th - nụng thụn v nhúm thu nhp, 2010 70 Bng 2.17: C cu h chia theo ngun nc n ung chớnh, thnh th - nụng thụn v nhúm thu nhp nm 2010 71 Bng 2.18: Tc tng GDP v t phn úng gúp ca cỏc yu t ti tng trng 83 Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 viii Bng 2.19: T trng úng gúp ca tng TFP vo GDP mt s nc Chõu 85 Bng 2.20 : T l h nghốo theo vựng 100 Bng 2.21: Ch s khong cỏch nghốo v khong cỏch nghốo bỡnh phng 101 Bng 2.22: So sỏnh tng trng v gim nghốo qua cỏc nm 2002 - 2012 102 Bng 2.23: H s co gión gia t l nghốo v tng trng thu nhp 103 Bng 2.24: Phõn ró s thay i ca t l nghốo theo tng trng thu nhp v phõn phi thu nhp 103 Bng 3.1: Cỏc bin s s dng mụ hỡnh 112 Bng 3.2: Túm tt mt s thng kờ c bn v cỏc bin mụ hỡnh 117 Bng 3.3: H s tng quan gia cỏc bin s vi GINI, GDP, Ln(GDPPERC) v INCGAP 124 Bng 3.4: Kt qu c lng tỏc ng ca bt bỡnh ng thu nhp (o lng bng h s GINI) n tng trng kinh t 125 Bng 3.5: S tnh chia theo mc bt bỡnh ng 127 Bng 3.6: Phõn loi tỏc ng ca bt bỡnh ng (theo h s GINI) n tng trng kinh t ca tng tnh 128 Bng 3.7: nh hng ca bt bỡnh ng thu nhp (o lng bng khong cỏch thu nhp) ti tng trng kinh t 131 Footer Page of 258 Header Page 10 of 258 ix DANH MC CC HèNH Hỡnh 1.1: ng Lorenz v h s Gini 18 Hỡnh 1.2: ng cong hỡnh ch U ngc ca Kuznets 30 Hỡnh 1.3: Tc tng trng GDP ca Braxin giai on 1961 - 2013 36 Hỡnh 1.4: Tng trng GDP ca Hn Quc, 1961 - 2013 39 Hỡnh 1.5: Tng trng GDP ca trung Quc, 1983 - 2013 41 Hỡnh 2.1: T trng thu nhp ca 40% dõn s cú thu nhp thp nht tng thu nhp 59 Hỡnh 2.2: H s Gini ca Vit Nam theo vựng 60 Hỡnh 2.3: T l ngi khỏm cha bnh cú bo him y t hoc s/th khỏm cha bnh phớ chia theo nhúm thu nhp, thnh th-nụng thụn 65 Hỡnh 2.4: Tc tng trng kinh t hng nm Vit Nam, 2000 - 2012 77 Hỡnh 2.5: Tc tng trng GDP ca Vit Nam v mt s nc khu vc 78 Hỡnh 2.6: Nng sut lao ng xó hi theo cỏc ngnh kinh t 79 Hỡnh 2.7: T l u t GDP ca cỏc nc trờn th gii giai on 1995 - 2005 80 Hỡnh 2.8: Tc tng trng GDP v h s ICOR ca Vit Nam, 2000 - 2011 81 Hỡnh 2.9: úng gúp vo tc tng trng GDP t vn, lao ng v TFP, 2001 - 2011 82 Hỡnh 2.10: Tc tng TFP ca Vit Nam v mt s nc Chõu 84 Hỡnh 2.11: T trng kim ngch xut khu v nhp khu so vi GDP 86 Hỡnh 2.12: Tng trng thu nhp bỡnh quõn u ngi theo nhúm thu nhp 98 Hỡnh 2.13: Xu hng Gini, t l nghốo v tc GDP 99 Hỡnh 3.1: Phõn b xỏc sut ca phõn phi bt bỡnh ng thu nhp 118 Hỡnh 3.2: Phõn b xỏc sut ca khong cỏch thu nhp (INCGAP) 119 Hỡnh 3.3: Phõn b xỏc sut ca GDP 120 Hỡnh 3.4: Phõn b xỏc sut ca GDP bỡnh quõn u ngi 120 Hỡnh 3.5: Phõn b xỏc sut ca Ln(GDP) 121 Hỡnh 3.6: Phõn b xỏc sut ca Ln(GDPPERC) 122 Hỡnh 3.7: Mi quan h gia GINI v mt s yu t nh hng 123 Hỡnh 3.8: Quan h gia khong cỏch thu nhp v mt s yu t nh hng 123 Footer Page 10 of 258 Header Page 167 of 258 157 DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO Ti liu ting Vit B Lao ng Thng binh v Xó hi (2008), Bỏo cỏo nghiờn cu tng kt chuyờn : Quan h phõn phi nn kinh t th trng nh hng XHCN o Quang Vinh v Ban ch nhim (2005), Xỏc nh c ch phõn phi tin lng, thu nhp ca cỏc loi hỡnh doanh nghip giai on 2006-2010; ti nghiờn cu cp B, H Ni Gunewardena D., v van de Walle D (2000) Nguyờn nhõn ca bt bỡnh ng dõn tc ti Vit Nam Tp san Kinh t phỏt trin, S 65, trang 177-207 Hong c Thõn (2010), Bỏo cỏo tng hp ti nh nc: Quan im v gii phỏp bo m gn kt gia tng trng kinh t v tin b, cụng bng xó hi nc ta Lờ Quc Hi (2009), Tỏc ng ca tng trng kinh t v bt bỡnh ng thu nhp n xoỏ gim nghốo Vit Nam, Tp Kinh t v Phỏt trin, s 145, thỏng nm 2009 Lờ Quc Hi (2009), Tng trng vỡ ngi nghốo Vit Nam Thnh tu, thỏch thc v gii phỏp, Tp Phỏt trin kinh t, s 229, thỏng 11/2009 Lờ Quc Hi (2010), Thỏch thc v gii phỏp cho bt bỡnh ng thu nhp Vit Nam thi gian ti, Chng 6, Sỏch Vt qua by thu nhp trung bỡnh: C hi v thỏch thc i vi Vit Nam, NXB Giao thụng ti Ngõn hng th gii (2004), Bờn trờn tng trng kinh t: Gii thiu v phỏt trin 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Journal of Political Economy, 94(4), 873-883 53 Vinod Thomas, Mansoor Dailami, Ashok Dhareshwar (2004), The Quality of Growth, IFIP International Working Conference, Krems, Austria, May 17-19 54 Wood (1995), Poverty and Income Inequality in Latin America during the 1980s. Reviews of Income and Wealth, 41(3), 245-264 55 Wooldridge (2009), J Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach SouthWestern: Mason, OH 56 World Bank, 2003, Vietnam Development Report: Poverty, Hanoi Footer Page 172 of 258 Header Page 173 of 258 163 PH LC Kt qu c lng mụ hỡnh vi s liu mng v kim nh Hausman Mễ HèNH (MH1) a-Fixed-effects (within) regression Group variable: tinh R-sq: within = 0.2542 between = 0.6917 overall = 0.6728 Number of obs = 252 Number of groups = 63 Obs per group: = avg = 4.0 max = F(3,186) = 21.13 corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.4540 Prob > F = 0.0000 -ln_gdp | Coef Std Err t P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] -+ -ln_invest | 105781 0333675 3.17 0.002 0399536 1716084 lnlfs | 1.587881 342537 4.64 0.000 9121235 2.263638 GINI | 0036743 0033086 1.11 0.268 -.0028528 0102015 _cons | -2.560675 2.099314 -1.22 0.224 -6.702203 1.580852 -+ -sigma_u | 5397002 sigma_e | 17949124 rho | 90040878 (fraction of variance due to u_i) -F test that all u_i=0: F(62, 186) = 21.15 Prob > F = 0.0000 b-Random-effects GLS regression Group variable: tinh R-sq: within = 0.2380 between = 0.7320 overall = 0.7114 Number of obs Number of groups = = 63 252 Obs per group: = avg = 4.0 max = Wald chi2(3) = 249.72 corr(u_i, X) = (assumed) Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 -ln_gdp | Coef Std Err z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] -+ -ln_invest | 1711088 0309579 5.53 0.000 1104324 2317851 lnlfs | 1.07727 0966572 11.15 0.000 8878253 1.266715 GINI | 0038884 0032581 1.19 0.233 -.0024973 0102741 _cons | 1565158 5838215 0.27 0.789 -.9877534 1.300785 -+ -sigma_u | 3906057 sigma_e | 17949124 rho | 82565551 (fraction of variance due to u_i) Footer Page 173 of 258 Header Page 174 of 258 164 Kim nh Hausman Coefficients -| (b) (B) (b-B) sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) | fixed Difference S.E -+ -ln_invest | 105781 lnlfs | 1.587881 1711088 1.07727 GINI | 0036743 -.0653278 0156704 5106106 0038884 3428304 -.0002141 0011055 -b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(3) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 21.43 Prob>chi2 = 0.0001 Mễ HèNH (MH2) a-Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs Group variable: tinh = Number of groups = R-sq: within = 0.3483 248 62 Obs per group: = between = 0.7370 avg = overall = 0.7209 4.0 max = F(5,181) corr(u_i, Xb) = 0.0956 Prob > F 4 = = 19.34 0.0000 -ln_gdp | Coef Std Err t P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] -+ -ln_invest | 2212204 0433012 lnlfs | 1.021556 3525043 5.11 0.000 2.90 0.004 1357803 3260099 3066605 1.717103 GINI | 0583503 0270993 2.15 0.033 0048792 1118214 GINI2 | -.0005802 0003258 -1.78 0.077 -.0012231 0000626 _cons | -.7486908 2.208343 -0.34 0.735 -5.106098 3.608717 -+ -sigma_u | 44746486 sigma_e | 16905372 rho | 87509324 (fraction of variance due to u_i) -F test that all u_i=0: F(61, 181) = b-Random-effects GLS regression Group variable: tinh Footer Page 174 of 258 21.42 Prob > F = 0.0000 Number of obs Number of groups = = 62 248 Header Page 175 of 258 165 R-sq: within = 0.3399 Obs per group: = between = 0.7694 avg = overall = 0.7511 4.0 max = corr(u_i, X) = (assumed) 4 Wald chi2(5) = 309.63 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 -ln_gdp | Coef Std Err z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] -+ -ln_invest | 2889333 0370948 lnlfs | 9292581 1006433 GINI | 0536571 7.79 0.000 9.23 0.000 026887 2162288 7320009 2.00 0.046 0009595 -1.95 0.051 -.0012888 GINI2 | -.000643 0003295 gini_skill~o | -.0000152 0000817 _cons | -.8373443 7679991 -0.19 0.853 -1.09 0.276 3616378 1.126515 1063547 2.71e-06 -.0001754 -2.342595 000145 6679063 -+ -sigma_u | 37822983 sigma_e | 16905372 rho | 83349064 (fraction of variance due to u_i) Kim nh Hausman Coefficients -| (b) (B) (b-B) | fixed Difference sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) S.E -+ -ln_invest | 2212204 lnlfs | 1.021556 2889333 9292581 -.0677129 0922981 0246797 348465 GINI | 0583503 0536571 0046932 0073883 GINI2 | -.0005802 -.000643 0000628 0000618 gini_skill~o | -.0001607 -.0000152 -.0001455 0000731 -b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(4) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 17.10 Prob>chi2 = Footer Page 175 of 258 0.0018 Header Page 176 of 258 166 Mễ HèNH (MH3) a-Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs Group variable: tinh = Number of groups = R-sq: within = 0.2764 252 63 Obs per group: = between = 0.6939 avg = overall = 0.6758 4.0 max = F(5,184) corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.4635 = 4 14.06 Prob > F = 0.0000 -ln_gdp | Coef Std Err t P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] -+ -ln_invest | 3662412 1489468 lnlfs | 1.600527 3427233 2.46 0.015 4.67 0.000 072378 6601045 9243544 2.2767 GINI | 1010208 0410415 2.46 0.015 0200484 GINI2 | -.0004685 0003436 -1.36 0.174 -.0011463 0002093 -.014297 0006676 gini_invest | -.0068147 0037925 _cons | -5.66485 2.456513 -1.80 0.074 -2.31 0.022 1819932 -10.5114 -.8182959 -+ -sigma_u | 5408422 sigma_e | 17774995 rho | 90251612 (fraction of variance due to u_i) -F test that all u_i=0: F(62, 184) = 21.16 b-Random-effects GLS regression Prob > F = 0.0000 Number of obs Group variable: tinh = Number of groups = R-sq: within = 0.2601 63 Obs per group: = between = 0.7344 avg = overall = 0.7146 max = Wald chi2(5) corr(u_i, X) = (assumed) = 252 4.0 257.78 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 -ln_gdp | Coef Std Err z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] -+ -ln_invest | 4385048 1501966 lnlfs | 1.081105 0963008 2.92 0.004 11.23 0.000 1441249 8923585 GINI | 1058966 0421179 2.51 0.012 0233471 GINI2 | -.0005047 0003504 -1.44 0.150 -.0011914 gini_invest | -.0070198 0038646 _cons | -3.006988 1.488805 -1.82 0.069 -2.02 0.043 7328847 1.269851 1884461 0001819 -.0145944 -5.924992 -.0889845 -+ Footer Page 176 of 258 .0005547 Header Page 177 of 258 167 sigma_u | 38970767 sigma_e | 17774995 rho | 82778905 (fraction of variance due to u_i) Kim nh Hausman Coefficients -| (b) (B) (b-B) sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) | fixed Difference S.E -+ -ln_invest | 3662412 lnlfs | 1.600527 4385048 -.0722636 1.081105 5194225 GINI | 1010208 1058966 GINI2 | -.0004685 -.0005047 gini_invest | -.0068147 0377661 343098 -.0048758 0068674 0000362 -.0070198 0000697 0002051 0007839 -b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(4) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 22.22 Prob>chi2 = 0.0002 Mễ HèNH (MH4) a-Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs Group variable: tinh = Number of groups = R-sq: within = 0.3495 248 62 Obs per group: = between = 0.7384 avg = overall = 0.7223 4.0 max = F(6,180) corr(u_i, Xb) = 0.0997 = 4 16.12 Prob > F = 0.0000 -ln_gdp | Coef Std Err t P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] -+ -ln_invest | 3055785 1484765 lnlfs | 1.019288 3531567 2.06 0.041 2.89 0.004 0126001 3224283 5985569 1.716148 GINI | 0755025 0396308 1.91 0.058 -.0026982 1537033 GINI2 | -.0005554 -1.69 0.093 -.0012047 0000938 000329 gini_skill~o | -.0001463 0001095 -1.34 0.183 -.0003623 0000698 gini_invest | -.0022517 0037903 -0.59 0.553 -.0097309 0052274 Footer Page 177 of 258 Header Page 178 of 258 168 _cons | -1.446867 2.505082 -0.58 0.564 -6.389971 3.496238 -+ -sigma_u | 44647107 sigma_e | 16935672 rho | 87421308 (fraction of variance due to u_i) -F test that all u_i=0: F(61, 180) = 21.29 b-Random-effects GLS regression Prob > F = 0.0000 Number of obs Group variable: tinh = Number of groups = R-sq: within = 0.3417 62 Obs per group: = between = 0.7691 avg = overall = 0.7509 corr(u_i, X) = (assumed) = 4.0 max = Wald chi2(6) 248 309.12 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 -ln_gdp | Coef Std Err z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] -+ -ln_invest | 3793774 1457134 lnlfs | 9309988 1008336 2.60 0.009 9.23 0.000 GINI | 0727972 0401553 1.81 0.070 GINI2 | -.0006182 0003321 0937843 7333686 6649705 1.128629 -.0059057 1515002 -1.86 0.063 -.001269 0000327 gini_skill~o | -5.45e-06 0000833 -0.07 0.948 -.0001686 0001578 gini_invest | -.0024429 0038031 -0.64 0.521 -.0098969 005011 _cons | -1.614991 1.434428 -1.13 0.260 -4.426418 1.196437 -+ -sigma_u | 37916732 sigma_e | 16935672 rho | 83368065 (fraction of variance due to u_i) Kim nh Hausman Coefficients -| (b) (B) (b-B) sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) | fixed Difference S.E -+ -ln_invest | 3055785 lnlfs | 1.019288 GINI | 0755025 Footer Page 178 of 258 .3793774 9309988 0727972 -.073799 0882891 0027053 0455217 3488224 0069192 Header Page 179 of 258 169 GINI2 | -.0005554 -.0006182 0000627 0000646 gini_skill~o | -.0001463 -5.45e-06 -.0001408 0000757 gini_invest | -.0022517 -.0024429 0001912 0008505 -b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(5) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 17.32 Prob>chi2 = 0.0039 Mễ HèNH (MH5) a-Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs Group variable: tinh Number of groups = R-sq: within = 0.3996 = 252 63 Obs per group: = between = 0.7047 avg = overall = 0.6915 4.0 max = F(4,185) corr(u_i, Xb) = 0.2223 = 4 30.78 Prob > F = 0.0000 -ln_gdp | Coef Std Err t P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] -+ -ln_invest | 0438865 0311646 lnlfs | 1.004972 3181034 1.41 0.161 3.16 0.002 -.0175973 3773952 1053702 1.632549 incgap | 7591239 2360747 3.22 0.002 2933792 incgap2 | -.0386788 0168536 -2.29 0.023 -.0719287 -.0054289 _cons | -1.416367 2.066093 -0.69 0.494 -5.492499 1.224869 2.659765 -+ -sigma_u | 48257583 sigma_e | 16147933 rho | 89930462 (fraction of variance due to u_i) -F test that all u_i=0: F(62, 185) = b-Random-effects GLS regression Group variable: tinh R-sq: within = 0.3865 between = 0.7382 overall = 0.7233 Footer Page 179 of 258 23.87 Prob > F = 0.0000 Number of obs Number of groups = Obs per group: = avg = max = 4.0 = 63 252 Header Page 180 of 258 170 Wald chi2(4) corr(u_i, X) = (assumed) = 317.78 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 -ln_gdp | Coef Std Err z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] -+ -ln_invest | 1039844 0295027 lnlfs | 1.122644 092785 3.52 0.000 12.10 0.000 0461602 9407889 1618085 1.3045 incgap | 7337717 2355321 3.12 0.002 2721372 incgap2 | -.0397434 0168452 -2.36 0.018 -.0727593 -.0067275 _cons | -2.490508 9693926 -2.57 0.010 1.195406 -4.390482 -.5905331 -+ -sigma_u | 37452609 sigma_e | 16147933 rho | 84324437 (fraction of variance due to u_i) Kim nh Hausman Coefficients -| (b) (B) (b-B) sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) | fixed Difference S.E -+ -ln_invest | 0438865 lnlfs | 1.004972 1039844 1.122644 incgap | 7591239 7337717 incgap2 | -.0386788 -.0397434 -.0600979 -.1176723 0253522 0010646 014246 3212797 0782045 0054909 -b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(4) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 27.12 Prob>chi2 = 0.0000 Tỏc ng ca tng trng n phõn phi thu nhp Ahluwwalia (1976) Hỡnh ch U ngc Psacharopoulos v cỏc cng s (1995) Hỡnh ch U ngc Dollar and Kraay (2002) Khụng nh hng Easterly (1999) Khụng nh hng Footer Page 180 of 258 Header Page 181 of 258 171 Chen and Ravallion (1997) Khụng nh hng Deininger and Squyre (1996) Khụng nh hng Tỏc ng ca bt bỡnh ng thu nhp n tng trng Li and Zhou (1998) Dng Frank (2009) Dng Persson v Tabellini (1994), , m Clarke (1995) m Persson v Tabellini (1994) m Barro (1999) Dng (Phỏt trin); m (ang phỏt trin) Footer Page 181 of 258 ... tăng trưởng kinh tế 23 1.2.2 Đo lường tăng trưởng kinh tế 24 1.2.3 Các nhân tố ảnh hưởng đến tăng trưởng kinh tế 25 1.3 Các lý thuyết tác động bất bình đẳng thu nhập đến tăng trưởng. .. tăng trưởng kinh tế 29 1.3.1 Tác động tích cực bất bình đẳng thu nhập đến tăng trưởng kinh tế 31 1.3.2 Tác động tiêu cực bất bình đẳng thu nhập đến tăng trưởng kinh tế 32 1.4 Kinh. .. Tác động phân phối thu nhập đến tăng trưởng kinh tế Việt Nam nghiên cứu tác động bất bình đẳng thu nhập đến tăng trưởng kinh tế Đề tài xây dựng mô hình chéo để kiểm định tác động phân phối thu