Capturing New Sources of Growth

112 312 0
Capturing New Sources of Growth

Đang tải... (xem toàn văn)

Tài liệu hạn chế xem trước, để xem đầy đủ mời bạn chọn Tải xuống

Thông tin tài liệu

This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE 2012, VOLUME Capturing New Sources of Growth EMBARGOED: NOT FOR NEWS WIRE TRANSMISSION, POSTING ON WEBSITES, OR ANY OTHER MEDIA USE UNTIL: 11:00 AM TOKYO TIME (2:00 AM GMT), WEDNESDAY, MAY 23, 2012; 10:00 PM EDT/WASHINGTON DC TIME, TUESDAY, MAY 22, 2012 WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE 2012, VOLUME Capturing New Sources of Growth © May 2012 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org All rights reserved 13 12 11 10 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org ISBN (electronic):978-1-4648-0076-4 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0076-4 Key title: World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update … (Print) Abbreviated key title: World Bank East Asia Pac Econ Update (Print) Cover photo: Hoang Ha iii Preface and Acknowledgments The East Asia and Pacific Economic Update was prepared by a team led by Bryce Quillin and included: Douglas Addison, Antonio Ollero, Juan Feng, Jennifer Golan, Marek Hanusch, Tehmina Khan, and Rohan Dinanath Singh The team worked under the guidance of Sudhir Shetty (Director, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management, East Asia and Pacific Region) and Bert Hofman (Chief Economist, East Asia and Pacific Region) World Bank country economists throughout the East Asia and Pacific region provided country write-ups and tables and assisted with the analysis Developing East Asia as used in this report includes China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Vietnam, and the island economies in the Pacific The Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs) include Hong Kong, SAR China, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, China Middle-income countries (MICs), as used in this report, refer to China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand Low-income countries as used in this report include Cambodia and Lao, PDR The ASEAN member countries are Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam For the purposes of cross-regional comparison, the report also makes reference to the World Bank country delineations of the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) regions Capturing New Sources of Growth iv Contents Preface and Acknowledgments������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������iii Abbreviations��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� vi Executive Summary�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� I Growth has remained strong, though has been slowing from its post-crisis peaks������������������������������������� Growth remained strong in 2011, but moderated from the 2010 rebound �������������������������������������������������� Labor markets were stable �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� Poverty continues to fall, though at a slower rate����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� East Asian exports slump on falling G-3 external demand… ��������������������������������������������������������������������� 10 … and may weaken further from a slowdown in China ����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 13 Portfolio flows revive, while bank credit is holding up�������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 15 The financial sector has been stable but risks are rising����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 19 II Fundamentals are strong, but there are limits to resilience�������������������������������������������������������������������������� 22 Central banks ease as growth slows and inflation decelerates…��������������������������������������������������������������� 23 …but upside risks to inflation cannot be overlooked���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 25 A revival in capital flows may pressure exchange rates again��������������������������������������������������������������������� 26 Fiscal policy needs to walk a fine line��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 27 III Rebalancing in a Changing World��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 33 For most EAP countries, growth will be stable in 2012 but downside risks remain ���������������������������������� 34 The greatest uncertainty: Europe���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 36 Long-term prospects tied productivity and integration������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 38 Country Pages and Key Indicators������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 44 Cambodia���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 44 China����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 48 Fiji���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 51 Indonesia����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 54 Lao PDR������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 58 Malaysia������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 61 Mongolia����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 64 Papua New Guinea�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 67 Philippines��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 71 Small Pacific Islands������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 74 Solomon Islands������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 77 Thailand������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 80 Timor-Leste������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 83 Vietnam������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 85 world bank East asia and pacific economic update 2012, vol Contents Appendix Tables������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 88 Appendix Table Real GDP Growth���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 88 Appendix Table Real GDP and Components of Aggregate Demand������������������������������������������������������ 89 Appendix Table East Asia - Merchandise Export Growth����������������������������������������������������������������������� 90 Appendix Table East Asia and the Pacific: GDP Growth Projections������������������������������������������������������ 90 Appendix Table Regional Aggregates for Poverty Measures in East Asia ��������������������������������������������� 91 Appendix Table East Asia: Exchange Rates�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 92 Appendix Table East Asia: Foreign Reserves Minus Gold����������������������������������������������������������������������� 93 Appendix Table 8a East Asia: Balance of Payments���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 94 Appendix Table 8b East Asia: Financial Account Components������������������������������������������������������������������ 94 Appendix Table East Asia: Nonperforming Loans����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 95 Appendix Table 10 East Asia: Financial Market Indicators������������������������������������������������������������������������� 96 Appendix Charts������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 97 Appendix Chart East Asia: Stock Market Price Indices��������������������������������������������������������������������������� 97 Appendix Chart East Asia: Local-Currency 10-Year Government Bond Yields��������������������������������������� 98 Appendix Chart East Asia: Foreign-Currency Government Bond Spreads��������������������������������������������� 99 Appendix Chart East Asia: Sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) Spreads������������������������������������������ 100 Appendix Chart East Asia: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rates������������������������������������� 101 Appendix Chart East Asia: Real and Nominal Exchange Rates ����������������������������������������������������������� 102 Capturing New Sources of Growth v vi Abbreviations ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations UN COMTRADE United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics ASEAN-4 Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand bbl BI BIS BOP CEIC CPI EAP oil barrel Bank Indonesia Bank for International Settlements Balance of payments CEIC Data Company, Ltd Consumer price index East Asia and Pacific region, World Bank classification VAT WB WDI ECA Europe and Central Asia region, World Bank classification ETF EPFR EU FDI G-3 Exchange traded funds Emerging Portfolio Funds Research European Union Foreign direct investment European Union, United States, and Japan GDP Gross domestic product IDR Indonesian Rupiah ILO LABORSTA International Labor Organizaton Labor Statistics databases IMF LAC International Monetary Fund Latin America and Caribbean region, World Bank classification LICs M&A MENA Low income countries Mergers and acquisitions Middle East and North Africa Region, World Bank classification MICs MSCI NIE NPL OECD Middle income countries Morgan Stanley Capital International Newly-industrialized economies Non-performing loan Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development PMI PPP RMB RRR SITC Purchasing Manager Index Purchasing power parity Chinese Renminbi Required reserve ratio Standard International Trade Classification SSA Sub-Saharan Africa Region, World Bank classification Countries BRN CHN FJI HKG IDN KHM KOR LAO MMR MNG MYS PHL PLW PNG SLB SGP THA TMP TON TWN VNM VUT Value-added tax World Bank World Development Indicators Brunei Darussalam China Fiji Hong Kong SAR, China Indonesia Cambodia Republic of Korea Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) Myanmar Mongolia Malaysia The Philippines Palau Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands Singapore Thailand Timor Leste Tonga Taiwan, China Vietnam Vanuatu world bank East asia and pacific economic update 2012, vol 1 Executive Summary Growth in developing East Asia and the Pacific remained strong in 2011, although it slowed from its post-crisis peaks Strong domestic demand offset weaker external demand from the United States and Western Europe Looking ahead, the external environment is likely to remain weak The best prospects for the region to maintain high rates of growth, job creation, and poverty reduction are through rebalancing towards domestic demand and investing in productivity increases and further international integration Developing East Asia grew by 8.2 percent in 2011 (4.3 percent excluding China), a sharp decline from the nearly 10 percent growth rate recorded in 2010 (7.0 percent excluding China) This slowdown was largely due to lower-thanexpected growth in manufacturing exports and supply disruptions in the wake of the Japan earthquake and tsunami and the severe flooding in Thailand, Lao, PDR, and Cambodia Domestic demand and investment compensated for these factors and were aided by monetary policy loosening in some countries Yet, for many countries, this pace of growth was a return to pre-crisis growth trends following the 2010 rebound that followed the global financial and economic crisis East Asian growth remained impressive on a global scale In 2011, growth was around a percentage point higher than in South Asia and around percentage points higher than in Eastern Europe and Latin America Poverty continued to fall across the region with the number of people living on less than US$2 a day expected to decrease to 513 million by 2012 from 565 million in 2010 Yet much of this is driven by gains in China, and the rate of poverty reduction seems to be slowing in step with moderating economic expansion in China and other parts of the region Employment growth also continues to be sluggish though stable For 2012, we expect that East Asia will remain the strongest performer among developing regions However, growth will moderate slightly as a result of a continued weak external environment Developing East Asia will grow by 7.6 percent in 2012 with slower expansion in China pulling down much of the regional aggregate Excluding China, annual growth will increase by around a percentage point to 5.2 percent in 2012 But much of this will reflect Thailand’s return to normal levels of production, while most of the region will see growth rates lower or unchanged from last year The region remains vulnerable to the continued uncertainty in Europe through trade and financial linkages Although last December’s fiscal pact and liquidity support from the European Central Bank helped stabilize financial markets, recent political events and market developments point to continued challenges Renewed market volatility and a further slowdown in European economies cannot be ruled out The EU, along with the US and Japan, accounts for over 40 percent of the region’s direct export shipments and an estimated 60 percent if intraregional trade linked to production networks is taken into account A serious disruption in the EU would also have knock-on effects on East Asia’s exports and growth by lowering growth in other regions, particularly Eastern Europe Moreover, European banks provide a third of trade and project finance in Asia Yet, most developing East Asian economies are well positioned to weather renewed volatility Domestic demand has proved resilient to shocks; most countries have current account surpluses and hold high levels of reserves; and banking systems are generally well-capitalized However, there are limits to this resilience While some countries may have space for further policy stimulus in the event of another major disruption in the external environment, public debt remains above pre-crisis levels in many countries, limiting options for expansionary fiscal policy, while overheating concerns may limit further monetary loosening Commodity exporters, many of which experienced strong growth in 2011, may be particularly vulnerable to a faster slowdown in China for which growth has been an important factor in Capturing New Sources of Growth Executive Summary driving up commodity prices A quicker than anticipated slowing of the Chinese economy could trigger an unexpected drop in commodity prices, which could force some commodity exporters to adjust rapidly With external demand likely to remain weak for the foreseeable future, East Asia’s continued high growth rates will need to be linked less to an export-oriented model While East Asian economies are already relying more on domestic demand to support economic growth, there is further scope for rebalancing Some countries will need to stimulate household consumption, while in others, higher investment (particularly in infrastructure) offers the potential to sustain growth, provided this does not exacerbate domestic demand pressures that still characterize economies such as Mongolia and Vietnam With a changing financial sector in the aftermath of the financial crisis and in anticipation of Basel III, new ways to finance higher levels of investment will also need to be found Governments could usefully focus on accelerating the preparation of infrastructure projects, as the availability of bankable projects rather than financing is the key constraint in most countries In the medium term, higher investment will enhance productivity and drive growth by facilitating a shift to higher value-added activities and more innovation Although labor productivity gains have been large across the region since the 1997/98 regional financial crisis, there is significant potential for further increases Labor productivity levels in 2010 in Emerging Europe and Latin America were about twice East Asian levels, while the gap between East Asia and the US, the global leader in labor productivity, has narrowed only modestly since 1990 Policies to support the movement of labor among countries can contribute to higher productivity Migration in developing East Asia has helped fill labor shortages in host countries and remittance flows have contributed to poverty reduction and macroeconomic stability in home countries Yet, as in other parts of the world, existing bilateral and regional migration policies not always allow migrants to move efficiently to where returns are highest or allow firms to obtain the workers they need, and these policies may contain incentives for undocumented migration Improved regional migration policies could enhance the gains from regional economic integration and allow those countries facing a negative demographic drag on economic growth in the next generation to obtain much-needed labor inputs world bank East asia and pacific economic update 2012, vol 90 Appendix Tables Appendix Table East Asia - Merchandise Export Growth in US dollars percent change from a year earlier East Asia (10) China S.E Asia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam NIEs Hong Kong SAR, China Korea, Rep Singapore Taiwan, China 2009 2010 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 -16.3 -15.9 -16.8 -15.0 -21.2 -21.7 -14.3 -10.1 -16.2 -12.2 -13.9 -20.2 -20.5 28.7 31.3 29.5 35.5 26.3 34.0 28.1 26.9 28.3 22.5 28.3 30.5 35.0 14.8 20.4 18.9 28.7 14.3 -6.7 17.2 32.9 14.7 9.9 19.0 16.4 11.6 19.6 22.1 22.5 43.8 16.8 1.0 18.5 28.8 15.2 7.9 18.6 19.8 13.7 18.6 20.7 21.9 39.6 16.4 -14.9 29.0 39.7 13.3 4.0 21.4 15.7 11.0 9.9 14.3 11.6 8.7 8.6 -17.5 -4.8 29.3 7.1 6.7 9.0 7.1 3.7 4.6 7.6 6.8 6.9 4.0 5.2 -3.9 28.3 1.4 -1.1 3.0 6.0 -4.5 8.8 13.4 2.5 1.5 5.0 -18.9 -2.1 21.2 6.4 7.4 8.2 8.4 -1.0 -3.6 -0.6 -0.2 6.6 -1.2 3.1 -6.0 0.1 -8.5 -8.4 -7.3 -3.9 -16.9 17.5 18.4 13.7 8.9 15.4 14.6 0.9 71.2 18.7 14.5 20.5 27.1 9.4 2.8 8.9 2.0 5.5 -0.5 -1.2 -6.5 27.3 -3.1 -6.4 -1.4 -1.5 -3.9 4.9 15.6 -4.6 -7.0 Source: Haver Analytics Appendix Table East Asia and the Pacific: GDP Growth Projections percent change form a year earlier Forecast East Asia Developing East Asia China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Cambodia Fiji Lao PDR Mongolia Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands Timor-Leste East Asia NIEs Forecast 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 6.7 8.8 10.0 4.8 5.8 5.0 7.1 7.3 8.5 1.0 6.1 7.0 2.2 6.5 0.1 3.2 7.9 9.0 10.1 5.0 6.8 6.7 6.3 7.8 10.3 5.3 6.4 10.6 2.7 4.9 4.2 6.0 8.0 9.8 11.3 5.7 5.3 4.8 4.6 8.4 13.3 0.7 7.1 7.3 3.6 5.4 6.2 4.9 9.1 10.9 12.7 5.5 5.8 5.2 5.1 8.2 10.8 1.8 8.5 8.6 2.6 6.9 -5.8 5.8 10.1 12.3 14.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 5.0 8.5 10.2 -0.9 7.5 10.2 7.2 10.7 11.7 5.9 6.3 8.5 9.6 6.0 4.8 4.2 2.5 6.3 6.7 1.0 7.6 8.9 6.7 7.1 14.6 1.8 4.9 7.5 9.2 4.6 -1.6 1.1 -2.3 5.3 0.1 -1.3 7.5 -1.3 5.5 -4.7 12.8 -0.8 9.3 9.7 10.4 6.2 7.2 7.6 7.8 6.8 6.0 -0.2 8.5 6.4 7.5 7.0 9.5 8.4 7.0 8.2 9.2 6.5 5.1 3.7 0.1 5.9 6.9 2.0 8.0 17.3 9.0 9.0 10.6 4.1 6.3 7.6 8.2 6.1 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.7 6.6 1.5 8.3 17.2 7.0 6.0 10.0 3.2 7.0 8.0 8.6 6.4 5.1 5.0 5.0 6.3 6.7 1.7 7.5 11.8 5.0 4.0 10.0 4.2 Source: World Bank data and staff estimates world bank East asia and pacific economic update 2012, vol Appendix Tables Appendix Table Regional Aggregates for Poverty Measures in East Asia $1.25 –a-day Mean Consumption Headcount Index (%) (2005 PPP$/month) Number of Poor Headcount Index (%) (million) EAP 1990 47.79 54.96 1993 54.69 50.72 1996 67.19 35.90 1999 70.74 35.58 2002 85.64 27.61 2005 107.07 17.11 2008 127.40 14.34 EAP excluding China 1990 67.32 40.38 1993 74.04 42.57 1996 86.16 34.65 1999 82.71 35.46 2002 89.65 25.67 2005 104.96 19.28 2008 114.30 17.53 South East Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand) 1990 75.07 32.72 1993 81.96 37.97 1996 95.84 30.05 1999 90.47 32.29 2002 97.70 21.50 2005 113.56 16.90 2008 122.78 16.85 Lower-Income East Asia (Cambodia, Laos, PNG, Vietnam) 1990 37.82 69.13 1993 44.29 59.84 1996 50.14 51.74 1999 53.90 47.16 2002 59.73 41.07 2005 72.93 28.04 2008 82.59 20.01 Source: World Bank PovcalNet 2012, World Development Indicators, and staff calculations Capturing New Sources of Growth $2-a-day Number of Poor (million) Population (million) 881.76 848.46 623.43 639.04 509.97 323.78 277.49 80.97 75.76 63.97 61.74 51.93 39.57 32.94 1.299.12 1.267.24 1.110.79 1.108.86 959.23 748.88 637.17 1.604.41 1.672.77 1.736.37 1.795.97 1.847.03 1.892.72 1.934.41 189.48 210.42 179.75 192.61 145.44 113.53 106.89 70.73 67.94 61.03 62.54 53.96 46.21 40.74 331.89 335.87 316.65 339.74 305.78 272.20 248.44 469.23 494.33 518.82 543.23 566.63 589.00 609.76 105.12 128.37 106.57 119.99 83.60 68.54 70.94 66.26 63.92 56.32 59.08 49.81 43.60 39.05 212.85 216.09 199.69 219.51 193.68 176.85 164.34 321.26 338.07 354.59 371.56 388.82 405.65 420.89 58.00 53.39 48.82 46.83 42.53 30.17 22.31 87.83 83.14 78.67 75.46 69.41 55.90 47.01 73.69 74.18 74.24 74.92 71.87 60.15 52.43 83.90 89.22 94.36 99.28 103.54 107.60 111.52 91 92 Appendix Tables Appendix Table East Asia: Exchange Rates local currency per US dollar, end-of-period Jan-2008 Feb-2008 Mar-2008 Apr-2008 May-2008 Jun-2008 Jul-2008 Aug-2008 Sep-2008 Oct-2008 Nov-2008 Dec-2008 Jan-2009 Feb-2009 Mar-2009 Apr-2009 May-2009 Jun-2009 Jul-2009 Aug-2009 Sep-2009 Oct-2009 Nov-2009 Dec-2009 Jan-2010 Feb-2010 Mar-2010 Apr-2010 May-2010 Jun-2010 Jul-2010 Aug-2010 Sep-2010 Oct-2010 Nov-2010 Dec-2010 Jan-2011 Feb-2011 Mar-2011 Apr-2011 May-2011 Jun-2011 Jul-2011 Aug-2011 Sep-2011 Oct-2011 Nov-2011 Dec-2011 Jan-2012 Feb-2012 Mar-2012 Apr-2012 May-2012* China Indonesia 7.19 7.11 7.02 7.00 6.95 6.86 6.84 6.83 6.82 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.84 6.84 6.84 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.79 6.78 6.81 6.70 6.69 6.68 6.62 6.59 6.58 6.56 6.50 6.48 6.47 6.44 6.39 6.35 6.32 6.35 6.30 6.31 6.29 6.29 6.28 6.31 9,291 9,051 9,217 9,234 9,318 9,225 9,118 9,157 9,378 10,995 12,151 10,950 11,355 11,980 11,575 10,713 10,340 10,225 9,920 10,060 9,681 9,545 9,480 9,400 9,365 9,335 9,115 9,012 9,180 9,083 8,952 9,041 8,924 8,928 9,013 8,991 9,057 8,823 8,709 8,574 8,537 8,597 8,508 8,578 8,823 8,835 9,170 9,068 9,000 9,085 9,180 9,190 9,180 Malaysia Philippines 3.24 3.19 3.19 3.16 3.24 3.27 3.26 3.39 3.46 3.56 3.62 3.46 3.61 3.69 3.65 3.56 3.51 3.52 3.52 3.53 3.47 3.41 3.39 3.42 3.41 3.41 3.27 3.19 3.25 3.26 3.19 3.14 3.09 3.11 3.16 3.08 3.06 3.05 3.03 2.97 3.01 3.02 2.96 2.98 3.19 3.07 3.17 3.18 3.05 3.00 3.07 3.03 3.07 40.65 40.36 41.87 42.19 43.88 44.76 44.14 45.69 46.92 48.75 48.88 47.49 47.08 48.24 48.42 48.70 47.55 48.31 48.12 48.91 47.59 47.73 46.75 46.36 46.74 46.26 45.22 44.64 46.21 46.31 45.81 45.18 43.90 43.18 44.26 43.89 44.09 43.84 43.43 43.02 43.29 43.49 42.23 42.51 43.64 43.03 43.81 43.93 42.95 42.86 43.00 42.44 42.37 Thailand 32.98 31.85 31.46 31.70 32.40 33.48 33.48 34.12 34.00 34.93 35.38 34.90 34.88 36.00 35.48 35.27 34.33 33.98 33.99 33.97 33.51 33.39 33.16 33.32 33.10 33.03 32.32 32.25 32.49 32.40 32.22 31.25 30.37 29.97 30.22 30.15 31.14 30.62 30.30 29.94 30.31 30.75 29.75 30.03 31.17 30.67 31.22 31.69 31.04 30.25 30.84 30.73 31.13 Hong Kong Korea, Rep Vietnam SAR, China 15,971 15,931 16,105 16,116 16,246 16,842 16,755 16,525 16,575 16,813 16,974 17,433 17,475 17,475 17,756 17,784 17,784 17,801 17,815 17,823 17,841 17,862 18,485 18,472 18,472 18,925 19,080 18,960 18,980 19,065 19,095 19,485 19,485 19,495 19,498 19,498 19,498 20,875 20,908 20,625 20,535 20,565 20,555 20,822 20,822 20,999 20,999 21,024 20,981 20,830 20,810 20,860 20,845 7.80 7.78 7.79 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.77 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.76 7.76 7.76 7.77 7.77 7.79 7.79 7.77 7.78 7.76 7.75 7.77 7.78 7.80 7.79 7.78 7.77 7.78 7.78 7.79 7.80 7.79 7.77 7.79 7.77 7.76 7.76 7.76 7.76 7.76 943.9 937.3 991.7 999.7 1,031.4 1,043.4 1,008.5 1,081.8 1,187.7 1,291.4 1,482.7 1,257.5 1,368.5 1,516.4 1,377.1 1,348.0 1,272.9 1,284.7 1,240.5 1,244.9 1,188.7 1,200.6 1,167.4 1,167.6 1,156.5 1,158.4 1,130.8 1,115.5 1,200.2 1,210.3 1,187.2 1,189.1 1,142.0 1,126.6 1,157.3 1,138.9 1,114.3 1,127.9 1,107.2 1,072.3 1,080.6 1,078.1 1,052.6 1,071.7 1,179.5 1,104.5 1,150.3 1,153.3 1,125.0 1,126.5 1,137.8 1,134.2 1,142.9 Singapore Taiwan, China Japan 1.42 1.39 1.38 1.36 1.37 1.36 1.37 1.42 1.43 1.48 1.51 1.44 1.51 1.54 1.52 1.48 1.45 1.45 1.44 1.44 1.41 1.40 1.38 1.40 1.40 1.41 1.40 1.37 1.40 1.40 1.36 1.36 1.32 1.30 1.32 1.29 1.29 1.27 1.26 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.20 1.20 1.30 1.25 1.30 1.30 1.25 1.25 1.26 1.24 1.25 32.20 30.95 30.41 30.45 30.41 30.35 30.59 31.52 32.13 33.00 33.30 32.86 33.80 34.95 33.92 33.23 32.65 32.82 32.82 32.92 32.20 32.54 32.19 32.03 31.99 32.09 31.82 31.42 32.23 32.28 32.05 32.10 31.33 30.78 30.85 30.37 29.30 29.75 29.42 28.76 28.77 28.80 28.89 29.02 30.51 29.93 30.35 32.29 29.62 29.42 29.53 29.23 29.40 106.36 104.73 100.10 104.08 105.66 106.40 107.99 109.10 104.30 98.30 95.25 90.75 89.60 97.55 98.10 97.60 96.50 95.95 95.33 92.70 89.77 91.38 86.75 92.06 89.85 89.25 93.25 94.06 91.30 88.60 86.50 84.25 83.40 80.58 84.15 81.45 82.05 81.70 83.13 82.06 80.85 80.72 77.55 76.59 76.63 79.20 78.05 77.72 76.36 80.65 82.82 79.80 79.93 Sources: Haver Analytics, Datastream Note: * May 10, 2012 world bank East asia and pacific economic update 2012, vol Appendix Tables Appendix Table East Asia: Foreign Reserves Minus Gold in billions of US dollars Dec-1997 Dec-1998 Dec-1999 Dec-2000 Dec-2001 Dec-2002 Dec-2003 Dec-2004 Dec-2005 Dec-2006 Dec-2007 Dec-2008 Dec-2009 Jan-2010 Feb-2010 Mar-2010 Apr-2010 May-2010 Jun-2010 Jul-2010 Aug-2010 Sep-2010 Oct-2010 Nov-2010 Dec-2010 Jan-2011 Feb-2011 Mar-2011 Apr-2011 May-2011 Jun-2011 Jul-2011 Aug-2011 Sep-2011 Oct-2011 Nov-2011 Dec-2011 Jan-2012 Feb-2012 Mar-2012 Apr-2012 China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Hong Kong SAR, China Korea, Rep Singapore Taiwan, China Total 142.8 149.2 157.7 168.3 215.6 291.1 408.2 614.5 821.5 1,068.5 1,530.3 1,949.3 2,416.0 2,432.0 2,441.2 2,463.5 2,506.9 2,456.2 2,471.2 2,556.4 2,565.3 2,666.9 2,779.8 2,786.1 2,866.1 2,952.4 3,012.2 3,067.2 3,168.5 3,188.3 3,219.8 3,267.4 3,284.4 3,223.0 3,295.5 3,242.2 3,202.8 3,275.8 3,331.3 3,326.6 17.4 23.5 27.3 29.4 28.0 32.0 36.3 36.3 34.7 42.6 56.9 51.6 66.1 69.6 69.7 71.8 78.6 74.6 76.3 78.8 81.3 86.6 91.8 92.8 96.2 95.3 99.6 105.7 113.8 118.1 119.7 122.7 124.6 114.5 114.0 111.3 110.1 112.0 112.2 110.5 116.4 20.8 25.6 30.6 28.4 29.6 33.4 44.6 66.4 70.2 82.2 101.1 91.2 96.4 95.7 95.6 94.0 94.7 96.2 93.3 93.6 93.8 107.5 114.1 104.3 104.9 106.5 108.1 112.2 128.3 131.1 132.6 133.7 134.5 129.1 132.9 132.9 131.8 132.2 132.9 133.7 7.3 9.3 13.3 13.1 13.5 13.3 13.7 13.1 15.9 20.0 30.2 33.2 38.8 40.2 40.2 39.6 40.6 41.0 41.8 42.4 42.8 46.4 50.3 53.7 55.4 57.0 56.9 58.9 60.9 61.3 61.4 64.2 68.4 67.7 67.9 68.1 67.3 68.5 68.1 65.7 65.6 26.3 28.8 34.1 32.0 32.4 38.1 41.1 48.7 50.7 65.3 85.2 108.7 135.5 139.5 138.8 141.1 144.4 140.2 143.4 147.7 151.2 159.0 166.7 163.5 167.5 169.7 174.9 176.5 184.4 180.1 178.8 181.0 180.3 172.1 173.5 169.6 167.4 170.0 172.0 171.0 170.7 92.8 89.7 96.2 107.5 111.2 111.9 118.4 123.5 124.2 133.2 152.6 182.5 255.8 257.0 258.2 258.8 259.2 256.1 256.7 260.6 261.3 266.0 267.0 266.0 268.6 273.1 272.6 272.5 276.8 275.8 277.1 278.7 279.4 277.5 281.6 282.4 285.3 292.7 294.6 294.7 20.4 52.0 74.0 96.1 102.8 121.3 155.3 199.0 210.3 238.9 262.1 201.1 269.9 273.6 270.6 272.3 278.8 270.1 274.1 285.9 285.3 289.7 293.3 290.2 291.5 295.9 297.6 298.5 307.1 305.0 304.4 309.7 310.9 302.1 309.7 306.5 304.2 309.2 313.6 313.8 314.7 71.3 75.1 77.0 80.2 75.7 82.2 96.2 112.6 116.2 136.3 163.0 174.2 187.8 189.6 187.6 196.9 203.2 198.1 199.7 206.7 206.2 214.5 221.2 217.4 225.5 226.9 230.7 234.0 242.3 239.7 242.1 248.9 249.0 233.4 245.2 240.8 237.5 245.3 246.8 243.4 245.9 83.5 90.3 106.2 106.7 122.2 161.7 206.6 241.7 253.3 266.1 270.3 291.7 348.2 350.7 352.7 355.0 357.6 360.1 362.4 370.1 372.1 380.5 383.8 379.3 382.0 387.1 390.7 392.6 399.5 398.7 400.3 400.8 400.3 389.2 393.3 388.0 385.5 390.3 394.4 393.9 395.1 482.5 543.4 616.4 661.8 730.9 885.1 1,120.3 1,455.9 1,697.1 2,053.0 2,651.7 3,083.4 3,814.5 3,847.8 3,854.6 3,893.0 3,963.9 3,892.7 3,919.1 4,042.2 4,059.2 4,216.9 4,368.0 4,353.0 4,457.7 4,563.8 4,643.3 4,718.2 4,881.7 4,898.0 4,936.1 5,007.0 5,031.8 4,908.6 5,013.6 4,941.8 4,892.0 4,995.9 5,066.0 5,053.2 Sources: Haver Analytics, Thomson Datastream, and IMF International Financial Statistics Capturing New Sources of Growth 93 94 Appendix Tables Appendix Table 8a East Asia: Balance of Payments in percent of GDP Overall Balance East Asia (11) China S.E Asia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam NIEs Hong Kong SAR, China Korea, Rep Singapore Taiwan, China Median Current Account Capital Account 1/ 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 8.8 13.1 5.6 2.9 7.0 5.7 6.4 14.4 2.5 6.8 10.6 1.4 -0.4 -2.5 0.1 8.9 0.5 1.0 8.2 8.0 3.1 2.3 2.0 3.8 9.1 -9.1 12.7 7.0 7.9 4.7 4.3 -0.3 7.2 9.8 -1.7 6.2 4.4 5.3 3.0 1.4 11.1 4.5 0.4 1.0 2.5 8.4 10.1 5.1 2.4 15.9 4.7 5.9 -9.8 7.0 7.1 9.1 2.7 0.0 17.7 2.1 0.8 -11.9 4.9 5.7 5.2 5.3 2.0 16.4 5.5 8.3 -6.6 7.7 4.5 4.0 3.2 0.7 11.5 4.4 4.1 -4.1 7.2 3.5 2.8 2.9 0.2 11.5 3.1 3.4 -0.5 6.6 0.5 3.0 0.5 0.5 -8.8 1.0 0.5 24.9 -4.5 -0.3 1.5 -1.3 -0.4 -20.1 -2.0 8.2 13.7 -4.0 2.4 2.8 -2.3 0.3 -14.4 -1.7 0.8 7.7 5.0 2.5 3.9 1.5 3.5 -11.8 2.7 5.7 6.0 -1.0 1.0 2.5 0.4 1.2 -0.4 1.4 -3.1 4.4 -4.1 7.1 15.7 33.9 4.1 5.9 12.3 13.7 8.6 5.5 5.1 -5.2 2.0 25.3 -1.4 0.8 1.4 10.9 -1.0 6.4 -6.0 6.9 6.6 6.6 8.1 6.1 14.3 8.0 2.7 18.5 9.3 7.2 1.2 6.6 1.3 4.5 2.1 25.8 8.9 8.9 0.3 13.9 6.9 6.9 3.9 16.2 11.3 8.3 2.9 24.4 9.2 4.4 2.4 21.9 8.8 3.4 -0.6 -14.8 -10.0 -0.6 -6.3 -7.0 -0.3 -0.4 4.3 -10.1 3.0 0.8 -0.2 -5.9 0.1 0.1 -1.1 -15.3 -7.5 -0.4 Sources: IMF, Haver Analytics, national sources Note: 1/ Capital Account + Financial Account + Errors and Omissions Appendix Table 8b East Asia: Financial Account Components in percent of GDP Net FDI East Asia (11) China S.E Asia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam NIEs Hong Kong SAR, China Korea, Rep Singapore Taiwan, China Median Net Portfolio Investment Net Other Capital 2/ 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2.2 4.1 1.2 0.5 -1.5 -0.4 3.1 9.2 -1.0 1.6 2.7 0.8 0.7 -3.5 0.7 1.6 10.3 -0.4 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.5 -3.4 1.0 0.3 7.4 -1.4 1.9 3.1 1.2 1.6 -1.8 0.3 1.3 6.9 -1.5 1.7 2.3 0.8 1.2 -1.5 0.6 -0.3 5.9 0.5 -1.3 0.5 1.4 1.3 2.9 3.1 -2.5 8.8 -6.4 -0.4 0.9 -2.4 0.3 -11.4 -2.1 -0.8 -0.6 -2.3 0.0 0.8 0.3 1.9 -0.2 -0.4 -2.1 -0.1 -2.7 0.0 0.4 2.8 1.9 6.3 2.1 2.9 2.3 -3.4 -0.1 0.3 1.3 0.5 3.6 2.5 1.0 1.1 -2.8 -0.7 -2.0 -1.6 -1.1 -7.5 -0.3 -1.2 7.0 2.3 -1.9 -2.7 0.4 -1.4 -1.1 0.4 3.7 4.0 -1.4 2.3 1.4 -2.0 -1.5 -8.5 -1.6 0.8 0.4 8.5 1.4 1.2 -0.3 0.3 -7.0 1.2 3.3 -3.2 3.4 -0.4 0.3 -0.8 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -2.6 -2.6 -2.5 -3.3 4.2 -5.5 -10.9 0.6 -1.3 -17.6 -20.5 -26.8 -1.5 -5.0 14.4 48.1 30.7 -3.7 -1.7 5.6 -0.8 -0.4 -1.8 2.6 -1.2 0.7 -1.8 3.6 -0.8 0.3 -2.2 12.0 -2.1 0.3 -1.4 14.9 -3.2 0.6 -2.5 -26.7 -10.2 -1.3 -0.3 6.1 -3.1 -0.8 5.9 -21.6 -2.7 -0.4 4.2 -11.8 -4.8 1.9 0.9 -11.0 -7.6 0.5 3.6 6.3 1.1 -1.1 -4.0 -16.8 3.9 -1.1 -0.1 5.8 7.1 0.8 -2.0 -5.9 6.8 1.2 -1.1 -19.3 4.0 -0.8 Sources: IMF, Haver Analytics, national sources Note: 2/ Net Other Investment + Net Financial Derivatives world bank East asia and pacific economic update 2012, vol Appendix Tables Appendix Table East Asia: Nonperforming Loans in percent of total loans 1997 Dec China 1/ Indonesia 2/ Malaysia 3/ Philippines 4/ Thailand 5/ Korea, Rep 6/ 1998 Dec 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 7.2 48.6 32.9 10.6 11.0 11.0 12.7 45.0 38.9 6.0 7.3 13.6 18.8 9.7 14.9 17.7 8.8 12.1 11.5 16.9 10.4 3.3 23.6 7.5 10.2 14.6 15.7 2.4 17.9 6.8 9.0 13.8 12.7 2.2 13.2 4.5 7.5 12.5 10.7 2.0 8.6 7.6 5.8 8.6 8.2 1.3 7.1 6.1 4.8 6.1 7.5 0.9 6.2 4.1 3.2 4.9 7.3 0.7 2.4 3.2 2.2 4.1 5.3 1.1 1.6 3.3 1.8 3.7 4.9 1.2 1.1 2.6 2.3 3.6 3.6 1.9 1.1 2.9 2.2 3.7 3.2 2.0 1.0 2.8 2.0 3.1 3.0 1.7 2.8 1.8 3.1 2.8 1.7 2.3 1.9 2.7 1.4 Source: National data sources Notes: 1/ Covers only the major commercial banks for 2002-04, and all commercial banks for 2005-10 2 / Excludes IBRA’s AMC Data for 1997 to 2002 excludes state banks; the data source is the Monetary Division of Bank Indonesia Data from 2003 covers all commercial banks including state banks; the data source is the Banking Supervision Division of Bank Indonesia 3 / Excludes Danaharta This series, used by Bank Negara Malaysia, is net of provisions and excludes interest in suspense Beginning financial year 2010, banking institutions are required to report impaired loans in accordance with the Guideline on the Classification and Impairment Provisions for Loans/Financing The reporting of non-performing laons has since been discontinued 4 / Includes interbank loans 5 / Excludes transfers to AMCs The jump in headline NPLs in December 2002 was a one-off increase, reflecting a change in definition and did not affect provisioning 6 / Excludes KAMCO/KDIC Capturing New Sources of Growth 95 96 Appendix Tables Appendix Table 10 East Asia: Financial Market Indicators Stock Market Index, end-of-period, Dec 31, 2007 = 100 China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Hong Kong SAR, China Korea, Rep Singapore Taiwan, China Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Des-11 Mar-12 May-12* 72.6 77.9 93.7 101.1 90.5 110.5 78.3 91.9 100.3 104.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 52.0 85.6 82.1 67.9 89.6 43.1 79.5 88.3 85.1 88.4 34.6 49.4 60.7 51.7 52.4 34.0 51.7 59.3 50.8 54.0 56.3 73.8 74.4 67.3 69.6 48.4 66.1 73.3 67.3 75.6 62.3 92.3 88.1 84.3 85.6 53.4 78.6 88.7 83.6 96.3 45.5 106.1 90.9 93.1 92.9 54.7 72.4 89.5 81.8 86.2 53.3 134.9 105.1 116.0 120.4 52.3 82.8 108.1 92.0 105.5 52.4 141.6 109.3 118.5 121.4 46.7 80.5 110.7 90.0 101.7 41.7 139.2 105.9 120.7 119.5 37.9 66.3 96.2 76.4 83.1 42.9 150.1 110.5 141.0 139.5 47.4 73.9 106.2 86.9 93.1 Mar-12 May-12* 45.7 150.5 109.9 143.4 138.8 52.4 72.7 102.5 83.8 88.0 Source: Thomson Datastream Yields, 10-year local-currency government bonds, end-of-period, in percent China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Hong Kong SAR, China Korea, Rep Singapore Taiwan, China Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Des-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Des-11 4.4 9.0 5.0 7.4 4.5 7.8 4.8 5.5 2.9 2.5 4.5 10.0 4.1 6.6 5.0 9.1 3.4 5.7 2.7 2.6 4.5 13.4 4.9 9.4 5.9 16.0 3.5 6.0 3.6 2.7 2.8 11.9 3.2 7.4 2.7 10.2 1.9 4.2 2.1 1.4 3.2 11.1 4.4 8.1 3.7 9.7 2.6 5.2 2.6 1.6 3.6 10.1 4.3 8.1 4.2 11.5 2.6 5.4 2.7 1.5 3.3 8.4 4.0 7.9 3.1 11.5 2.3 5.0 2.4 1.4 3.9 7.6 4.0 6.1 3.7 11.8 2.9 4.5 2.7 1.6 3.9 7.5 3.9 6.6 3.9 12.5 2.3 4.3 2.3 1.6 3.4 6.0 3.7 5.4 3.3 125.0 1.5 3.8 1.6 1.3 3.5 5.9 3.7 5.8 3.8 11.5 1.2 4.0 1.7 1.3 3.6 6.2 3.6 5.7 3.8 10.4 1.1 3.8 1.5 1.2 Source: Bloomberg Foreign-Currency Government Bond Spreads (EMBIG), end-of-period, in basis points over US Treasuries China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Des-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Des-11 54 165 75 155 122 120 275 119 172 203 137 381 153 303 368 228 762 119 546 747 122 433 167 324 379 104 230 136 206 314 86 274 171 266 338 126 183 117 163 323 155 178 131 160 329 278 274 178 242 510 Mar-12 May-12* 249 210 168 181 340 252 251 170 201 391 Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg Credit Default Swap (CDS) Spreads on Foreign-Currency Government Bonds, 5-year, end-of-period, in basis points China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Hong Kong SAR, China Korea, Rep Singapore Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Des-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Des-11 13 110 16 111 39 17 29 154 44 153 55 18 47 75 286 116 266 135 42 107 188 638 225 384 256 104 319 45 75 317 105 217 110 68 182 45 73 188 90 168 96 48 85 35 91 186 102 174 134 57 131 45 68 133 74 130 99 46 98 45 85 141 93 138 136 54 103 90 144 202 144 185 179 91 156 83 Mar-12 May-12* 110 163 102 139 130 66 118 83 121 187 123 154 146 70 129 83 Source: Thomson Datastream Note: *May 10, 2012 world bank East asia and pacific economic update 2012, vol 97 Appendix Charts Appendix Chart East Asia: Stock Market Price Indices China: Stock Market (Shanghai A Share) Price Index Indonesia: Stock Market (Jakarta Composite) Price Index Malaysia: Stock Market (KLCI Composite) Price Index 4,500 1,800 4,000 1,600 3,500 1,400 3,000 1,200 4,000 2,500 1,000 3,000 2,000 800 1,500 600 1,000 400 500 200 7,000 6,000 5,000 2,000 1,000 0 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Philippines: Stock Market (PSEi) Price Index Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Thailand: Stock Market (Bangkok SET) Price Index Vietnam: Stock Market (Ho Chi Minh) Price Index 6,000 1,400 1,400 5,000 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Hong Kong SAR, China: Stock Market (Hang Seng) Price Index 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Taiwan, China: Stock Market Price Index 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Source: Thomson Datastream Capturing New Sources of Growth Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Korea, Rep.: Stock Market (KOSPI) Price Index 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Singapore: Stock Market (STIL) Price Index 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 98 Appendix Charts Appendix Chart East Asia: Local-Currency 10-Year Government Bond Yields China: 10-Year LCY Government Bond Yield Indonesia: 10-Year LCY Government Bond Yield 25 20 15 10 Malaysia: 10-Year LCY Government Bond Yield Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Philippines: 10-Year LCY Government Bond Yield Thailand: 10-Year LCY Government Bond Yield 12 10 6 18 16 14 12 10 2 0 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Hong Kong SAR, China: 10-Year LCY Government Bond Yield 3,5 2,5 1,5 1 0,5 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Singapore: 10-Year LCY Government Bond Yield 4,5 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Korea, Rep.: 10-Year LCY Government Bond Yield Vietnam: 10-Year LCY Government Bond Yield 20 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Taiwan, China: 10-Year LCY Government Bond Yield 2,5 1,5 0,5 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Source: Bloomberg world bank East asia and pacific economic update 2012, vol Appendix Charts Appendix Chart East Asia: Foreign-Currency Government Bond Spreads China: EMBI-Global Bond Spreads, basis points Indonesia: EMBI-Global Bond Spreads, basis points Malaysia: EMBI-Global Bond Spreads, basis points 350 1,400 600 300 1,200 500 250 1,000 200 800 150 600 100 400 50 200 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Philippines: EMBI-Global Bond Spreads, basis points 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Vietnam: EMBI-Global Bond Spreads, basis points 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Source: JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBIG), via Bloomberg Capturing New Sources of Growth 400 300 200 100 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 99 100 Appendix Charts Appendix Chart East Asia: Sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) Spreads China: CDS Spreads, 5-Year Government, basis points Indonesia: CDS Spreads, 5-Year Government, basis points Malaysia: CDS Spreads, 5-Year Government, basis points 300 1,400 600 250 1,200 500 200 150 100 50 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Philippines: CDS Spreads, 5-Year Government, basis points 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 1,000 400 800 300 600 200 400 100 200 0 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Thailand: CDS Spreads, 5-Year Government, basis points Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Hong Kong SAR, China: CDS Spreads, 5-Year Government, basis points 600 140 500 120 100 400 80 300 60 200 40 100 20 0 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Korea, Rep.: CDS Spreads, 5-Year Government, basis points 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Source: Thomson Reuters, via Datastream world bank East asia and pacific economic update 2012, vol Appendix Charts Appendix Chart East Asia: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rates in billions of US dollars and in local currency unit per US dollar China Indonesia 150 6.9 6.8 100 6.7 6.6 50 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 -50 6.1 -100 6.0 Jan-09 Aug-10 Mar-12 20 3.8 12,000 15 3.6 11,000 10 10,000 -5 9,000 8,000 -5 7,000 -10 6,000 -15 -10 -15 Jan-09 Philippines 50 48 46 44 42 -1 40 -2 -3 38 Aug-10 Mar-12 8,600 0.15 8,500 0.1 0.05 36 34 32 -2 30 -4 -6 28 -8 -10 26 Aug-10 Mar-12 4,250 4,200 0.05 4,150 4,100 -0.05 4,050 -0.1 4,000 -0.15 3,950 -0.2 3,900 -0.25 3,850 Exchange rates (rhs) Source: Haver Analytics and IMF Capturing New Sources of Growth 1,300 8,100 1,200 8,000 -0.1 7,700 1,400 1,100 1,000 900 -0.3 Jan-09 800 Aug-10 Mar-12 0.1 1,600 0.1 Mar-12 2.6 Aug-10 Aug-10 Mar-12 Vietnam 1,500 -0.2 2.8 4,300 2.5 8,300 7,800 -0.1 0.3 0.2 1,700 0.2 7,900 -0.05 0.4 3.2 0.15 Jan-09 8,400 8,200 Change in reserves 38 Jan-09 3.4 Cambodia Mongolia 8,700 Aug-10 Jan-09 Mar-12 10 Lao, PDR 0.2 Jan-09 Aug-10 Thailand Jan-09 Malaysia 13,000 10 Mar-12 22,000 21,000 1.5 20,000 0.5 19,000 -0.5 18,000 -1 -1.5 17,000 -2 -2.5 Jan-09 16,000 Aug-10 Mar-12 101 102 Appendix Charts Appendix Chart East Asia: Real and Nominal Exchange Rates* indices, 2010 = 100, and in local currency unit per US dollar China Indonesia 110 105 Malaysia 110 12,800 6.8 100 11,800 6.6 90 10,800 6.4 80 9,800 6.2 70 8,800 60 105 3.8 3.6 100 3.4 100 95 90 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-09 Philippines 7,800 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 90 Jan-09 Thailand 105 50 46 2.8 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Vietnam 105 38 36 48 100 3.2 95 100 34 150 24 22 130 20 110 18 90 16 32 44 95 95 30 42 90 Jan-09 REER 40 Jan-10 Jan-11 NEER 28 90 Jan-09 Jan-12 26 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 14 70 12 50 Jan-09 10 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 LCU/USD (rhs) Sources: BIS, IMF and Haver Analytics Note: *REER = real effective exchange rate; NEER = nominal effective exchange rate; LCU = local currency units world bank East asia and pacific economic update 2012, vol WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE 2012, VOLUME Capturing New Sources of Growth [...]... of new bonds in 2011, up from US$38.9 billion in 2010 Issuances of new bonds by China and by the other the middle-income countries have been robust New issuances of US$19.0 billion in January-March this year exceed those in the same period last year by nearly half (Figure 32) Issues of new equities have disappointed, however, both in the region and globally New share sales by developing East Asia of. .. lines display real growth rates yoy while the bars display contributions to regional growth rates Source: Haver Analytics Note: The composition of the bars display contributions to real growth Figure 8 Consumption growth maintained its inertia in the second half of 2011… Figure 9 …investment growth expanded in the ASEAN4 but fell in China real growth, in percent, year on year real growth, in percent,... vulnerability to geological and weather- Capturing New Sources of Growth 7 8 I Growth has remained strong, though has been slowing from its post-crisis peaks related natural disasters These realities are substantial constraints on private sector development Donor-supported government expenditures therefore often loom large in growth outcomes A few countries such as Fiji also see growth strongly driven by tourist... real GDP per capita growth or growth projections Capturing New Sources of Growth -100 -140 -160 2002–04 EAP 2004–06 2006–08 EAP excl China Source: PovcalNet and World Bank staff calculations 2008–10 2010–12 9 10 I Growth has remained strong, though has been slowing from its post-crisis peaks living under US$1.25 a day and the region has reduced poverty faster than in any other part of the world.5 However,... to drive growth this year, but may be tested by persistent uncertainty in developed markets, which may fuel further financial market volatility and lead to a sharp contraction in demand for exports from East Asia Capturing New Sources of Growth 4 I Growth has remained strong, though has been slowing from its post-crisis peaks Growth remained strong in 2011, but moderated from the 2010 rebound Growth. .. Over 90 percent of the banks’ funding structure is short, with maturities of less than one month and at call However, the rolling over of short-term deposits has been a common practice since the 1997/8 financial crisis Capturing New Sources of Growth 21 22 II Fundamentals are strong, but there are limits to resilience Most developing East Asian economies are well positioned to weather renewed volatility... 2011, modestly advancing the recovery from 2009 Most of the gains were loaded in the first half of the year, with inflows beginning to slow in the third quarter Developing economies received half the FDI inflows (roughly the same share as in 2010), driven by greenfield investments rather than cross-border Capturing New Sources of Growth 17 18 I Growth has remained strong, though has been slowing from... 2011, Typhoons Pedring and Sendong were ranked second and seventh, respectively, with Sendong recording the highest number of deaths in recorded history Capturing New Sources of Growth 5 6 I Growth has remained strong, though has been slowing from its post-crisis peaks period of inventory restocking, following a sharp drawing down during the global financial crisis in 2008 (Figure 7) By contrast, inventories... second half of 2011 the second quarter of 2010, the contribution of net real growth, in percent, year on year exports to growth has been declining since 2010 250 in most middle-income countries As global demand 200 for exports slumped (see trade section below) and demand for imports was supported by relatively robust 150 domestic demand, real growth in net exports in the 100 second half of 2011 (Figure... China’s apparel 7 World Bank (2009) “Transforming the Rebound into Recovery”, East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, Volume 2 Capturing New Sources of Growth 11 12 I Growth has remained strong, though has been slowing from its post-crisis peaks and textile exports, three-quarters of the regional total, expanded 20.5 percent last year, which is about the average rate from before the crisis in 2005–07 The

Ngày đăng: 26/08/2016, 07:53

Mục lục

  • Preface and Acknowledgments

  • Abbreviations

  • Executive Summary

  • I. Growth has remained strong, though has been slowing from its post-crisis peaks

    • Growth remained strong in 2011, but moderated from the 2010 rebound

      • Labor markets were stable

      • Poverty continues to fall, though at a slower rate

      • East Asian exports slump on falling G-3 external demand…

      • … and may weaken further from a slowdown in China

      • Portfolio flows revive, while bank credit is holding up

      • The financial sector has been stable but risks are rising

      • II. Fundamentals are strong, but there are limits to resilience

        • Central banks ease as growth slows and inflation decelerates…

          • …but upside risks to inflation cannot be overlooked

          • A revival in capital flows may pressure exchange rates again

          • Fiscal policy needs to walk a fine line

          • III. Rebalancing in a Changing World

            • For most EAP countries, growth will be stable in 2012 but downside risks remain

              • The greatest uncertainty: Europe

              • Long-term prospects tied productivity and integration

              • Country Pages and Key Indicators

                • Cambodia

                  • China

                  • Fiji

                  • Indonesia

                  • Lao PDR

                  • Malaysia

                  • Mongolia

Tài liệu cùng người dùng

  • Đang cập nhật ...

Tài liệu liên quan