Edited by Foxit Reader Copyright(C) by Foxit Software Company,2005-2008 For Evaluation Only ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES RICHARD J.T KLEIN1 and DONALD C MACIVER2 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany Environment Service, 4905 Dufferin Street, Downsview, Ontario M3H 5T4, Canada 2Atmospheric Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) convened a Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in Costa Rica in 1998 that involved more than 200 expects and incorporated views from many research communities This paper summarizes the recommendations from the Workshop and profiles the contributions to the advancement of methodologies for adaptation science Key words: IPCC, adaptation science, methodologies, recommendations Introduction In its Second Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that: “There is evidence of an emerging pattern of climate response to forcings by greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in the observed climate record This evidence comes from the geographical, seasonal and vertical patterns of temperature change Taken together, these results point towards a human influence on global climate” (Santer et al., 1996, p 412) This “discernible human influence on global climate” is particularly important in the light of the considerable time lags between the emission of greenhouse gases and their consequent effects on global temperature and especially sea level Even if atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations are stabilised over the next decades, global temperatures are still projected to increase for another few decades, while sea level will continue to rise for a number of centuries (Wigley, 1995; Raper et al., 1996) These lagged effects, attributable to past emissions, are often termed the “commitment to climate change” that nature and society have to face The awareness of this “commitment”, combined with the notion that it is unlikely that current patterns of greenhouse-gas emission will soon be curbed, has led scientists and policymakers to recognise the increasing need for adaptation to climate change, while continuing mitigation efforts However, climate adaptation has a considerably longer history, focusing on hazards resulting from natural variability and weather extremes In fact, there is a large literature on weather-related hazards that is highly relevant when studyMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 4: 189–198, 1999 c 1999 Kluwer Academic Publishers Printed in the Netherlands Edited by Foxit Reader Copyright(C) by Foxit Software Company,2005-2008 For Evaluation Only 190 RICHARD J.T KLEIN AND DONALD C MACIVER ing adaptation to climate change (cf Burton et al., 1993) To date, however, it has been largely ignored by those focusing on climate change, in part perhaps because it uses a somewhat different terminology For example, in the hazard literature, activities that equate with climate adaptation are termed hazard mitigation Rationale for the Workshop To bring together the various fields relevant to climate adaptation, the IPCC Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change (San José, Costa Rica, 29 March - April 1998) involved over 200 experts and incorporated views from many research communities Relevant fields included those of hazard mitigation and climate variability, even though the mandate of IPCC is limited to assessing climate change However, the participants in the IPCC Expert Meeting on Adaptation (Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 20-22 March 1997), which served as a preparatory meeting for the IPCC Workshop, concluded that adaptation to climate change cannot be meaningfully studied and conducted without considering climate variability The IPCC Bureau subsequently adopted this conclusion Some may ask why, irrespective of the consideration of climate variability, it has taken IPCC ten years to organise a workshop on adaptation to climate change To a large extent, adaptation has played only a marginal part in the reports produced by IPCC thus far This reflects the limited attention given to adaptation by scientists worldwide In his review of the Working Group II volume of the IPCC Second Assessment Report, Kates (1997) suggested the reason for this lies in the existence of two distinct schools of thought about climate change, both of which have chosen not to encourage adaptation research On the one extreme Kates identified the “preventionist” school, which argues that the ongoing increase of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations could be catastrophic and that drastic action is required to reduce emissions Preventionists fear that increased emphasis on adaptation will weaken society’s willingness to reduce emissions and thus delay or diminish mitigation efforts On the other extreme, one finds what Kates referred to as the “adaptationist” school, which sees no need to focus on either adaptation or mitigation Adaptationists argue that both natural and human systems have a long history of adapting naturally to changing circumstances and that active adaptation would constitute interference with these systems, bringing with it high social costs Following the publication of the IPCC Second Assessment Report, a distinct third school of thought has emerged, which we will label the “realist” school The realist school positions itself in between the two extreme views of the preventionists and adaptationists Realists regard climate change as a fact, but acknowledge that impacts are still uncertain Further, realists appreciate that the planning and implementation of effective adaptation options takes time Therefore, they understand that a process must be set in motion to consider adaptation as a crucial and realistic response option along with mitigation (e.g., Parry et al., 1998; Pielke, 1998) The IPCC Workshop on Adaptation was a first step in this process ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES 191 Recommendations of the Workshop The following recommendations and messages represent a summary of issues that were identified at the Workshop for consideration by the IPCC for possible inclusion in the contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report (TAR) (MacIver, 1998) 3.1 RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE IPCC • • • • • Adaptation Science, Adaptive Management and Adaptation Options Framework This Workshop Framework, as illustrated in the Working Paper on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change (Wheaton and MacIver, 1998) worked extremely well and it is recommended that Working Group II follow a similar subdivision of Adaptation Science (Theory); Adaptive Management (Practice) and Adaptation Options (Solutions) for the TAR Further subsections within Science include Adaptation Research, Scenarios, Monitoring/Data Management, and Adaptation Science Assessments Adaptive Management subsections include Socio-Economic Sectors, Ecosystems/ Species Environments and Integrated Assessments; and within Adaptation Options subsections include Reducing Vulnerabilities, Enhancing Opportunities and Options Assessments It is suggested that Regional Impact Studies be integrated into the Adaptation Science and Adaptive Management sectors, respectively Assessments of the Use of Traditional and Local Knowledge The IPCC needs to incorporate traditional and local knowledge into the TAR A considerable wealth of traditional knowledge exists and various mechanisms, including Workshops, need to be initiated to synthesise and summarise this information, especially adaptation to extreme events Assessments of the Use of Proprietary and Industrial Knowledge Considerable proprietary information, industrial analytical reports and management plans contain relevant and critical information on adaptation, even though this may not always be recognised This information, such as managerial codes and practices (e.g., building codes, forest management agreements, engineering designs), requires independent assessment and incorporation within the TAR Adaptation Monitoring, Data Management and Early-Warning Indicators A recurring issue at the Workshop was the need for consistent monitoring networks for adaptation, adaptation data management, baseline analysis, literature reviews, information and the development of early-warning indicators The IPCC is recommended to develop guidelines for adaptation monitoring, data management and early-warning indicators Assessment of Analogies The 1997/98 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event and other natural hazards have provided global opportunities to identify lessons in impact assessment and adaptation options The IPCC needs to assess the literature on a world-wide series of case studies of specific ENSO-related events Such science assessments should not only evaluate all aspects of the event, but also address the question of how one would Edited by Foxit Reader Copyright(C) by Foxit Software Company,2005-2008 For Evaluation Only 192 • • • • • RICHARD J.T KLEIN AND DONALD C MACIVER respond to exactly the same event, should one know that it would occur again in a number of years' time Integrated Assessments for Adaptation Building adaptation beyond the traditional socio-economic sectors and natural systems into integrated assessments is strongly recommended for the contribution of Working Group II to the TAR Recommended chapters include biodiversity, social vulnerability, water resources, coastal zones, human health, and trade and equity issues Assessment on Adaptation to Climate Variability Many participants recognise that reducing vulnerability to current climate variability is an essential step towards reducing vulnerability to climate change The TAR should therefore include an assessment of the scientific literature on impacts of and adaptation to current climate variability This will enhance the TAR's relevance to policy-makers with respect to their current investment decisions and international cooperation, while also providing a framework to assist longer-term choices related to climate change Adaptation Options Assessment Science assessments on specific issues are a recognised process to capture the state of knowledge It is recommended that Working Group II develop the methodologies to assess adaptation options, with particular attention to the role of technology, technology transfer, risk assessments and cost/benefit analysis International Impacts and Adaptation Training Participants recognised the urgent need for International Training Programmes on Impacts and Adaptation and, in some countries, the development of Facilities In this latter case, it was emphasised that impact studies, adaptation theories, practices and options must be regionally oriented in their training, education and awareness programmes It is suggested that the IPCC First Assessment Report, Second Assessment Report, interim up-dates and special reports could provide the basic curriculum Linking Mechanisms There needs to be a specific section in the TAR that addresses the linkages between (i) Impacts and Adaptation, (ii) Adaptation and Mitigation, (iii) Climate Science and Impacts, and (iv) Climate Science and Adaptation This will require close collaboration between the three Working Groups of IPCC 3.2 ADAPTATION MESSAGES • Global losses due to climate-related disasters have increased by a factor of 40 since the 1960s The current uncertainty surrounding climate-change impacts, including their interaction with climate variability and non-climatic stresses, requires an assessment of risks and opportunities High-impact-low-probability events present special challenges and should be included in the risk analysis Edited by Foxit Reader Copyright(C) by Foxit Software Company,2005-2008 For Evaluation Only ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES • • • • • • • • 193 Many lessons can be learned from past and current experiences to cope with climate variability and natural hazards, most notably in agriculture, water resources, human settlements, human health and coastal zones It is important to build on these experiences in order to improve capabilities to anticipate or respond to climatechange impacts The identification of indicators can act as early-warning systems of climate change Adaptation to climate variability and change can be "autonomous" or "planned" Autonomous adaptation takes place without intervention of an informed decision maker Planned adaptation requires strategic actions, based on an awareness that climate is changing and that action is needed to better respond to such changes The possibility of rapid climate change poses new challenges for adaptive management and adaptation options Adaptation can be either "reactive" or "pro-active", depending on the timing, goal and motive of its implementation, Reactive adaptation takes place after impacts of climate change have occurred, while pro-active adaptation takes place before impacts are apparent Autonomous adaptation, in both natural and human systems, is by definition reactive, while planned adaptation in human systems can be both reactive and pro-active Planning for adaptation will take time and should therefore not be postponed until impacts of climate change occur In spite of the current uncertainty, a range of adaptation options can be employed to increase the flexibility and adaptability of vulnerable systems, and reverse trends that increase vulnerability Many of these options will be of immediate benefit, and can therefore be considered "no-regret" adaptation Consideration of adaptation costs and benefits must include consideration of intergenerational and intragenerational equity Data and information are critical for climate-change adaptation They can come from a wide variety of sources, including risk and natural-disaster management, but accessibility is often constrained (e.g., disparate sources, proprietary holdings, costs and other restrictions on exchanges) "Maladaptation" describes the extent to which adaptation fails, and is part of a dynamic learning process Maladaptation can be reduced or avoided by greater consideration of external drivers, cross-sectoral and cross-regional impacts, analysis of case studies of specific situations and areas, and equity issues Maladaptation may be encouraged by insurance and disaster-relief measures The establishment and enforcement of standards (e.g., building codes), taking account of climate change, is crucial Social vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of groups or individuals to stress as a result of social and environmental change Important elements of social vulnerability include food security, resource dependency, risks to human health, migration, and economic factors In many places, social vulnerability is increased by climate variability and change, particularly extreme-weather events Many technologies that can be used to adapt to climate change are already in use to adapt to climate variability Technology needs and technology-transfer mechanisms should be more fully assessed and reported to increase the role of technology in climate adaptation Edited by Foxit Reader Copyright(C) by Foxit Software Company,2005-2008 For Evaluation Only 194 • • • • • • RICHARD J.T KLEIN AND DONALD C MACIVER Institutional and financial arrangements should give greater support to adaptation Adaptation assessment should be included early in vulnerability studies in co-operation with a wide range of stakeholders Water resources could be seriously impacted by increased droughts and high-water events Priority should be given to adaptation in catchments where water is close to full utilisation A regional and integrated approach to adaptation, incorporating market and non-market values, multiple stakeholders, groundwater and vegetation, is expected to be most effective Many coastal zones and small islands face erosion, inundation, saltwater intrusion and increased flood risk as sea level rises These stresses are already occurring now and are aggravated by current socio-economic trends Adaptation to climate change and sea-level rise must therefore be integrated with coastal zone management and development plans, and should reduce maladaptation Biodiversity, forests, coral reefs and other ecosystems with non-mobile species are particularly susceptible to multiple stresses such as fire, pest outbreaks, storm damage and sediment changes A number of pre-adaptive measures may exist to cope with climate change, but important constraints limit potential adaptation for biodiversity Climate-related impacts on human health are strongly related with other factors While primary sensitivities to climate change are known, increased understanding of indirect effects and cross-linkages to, for example, food, air, water and natural hazards are needed Co-ordinated health and climate data, monitoring, assessment and other functions are also required Access to insurance as a means to adapt to climate variability and change is severely limited for most of the Earth's population Some adaptation measures within the insurance industry (e.g., reduced coverage) may not be beneficial to society as a whole The Special Issue Around thirty papers were presented at the IPCC Workshop, covering a wide variety of relevant science issues, ranging from data requirements for adaptation and the role of biodiversity to adaptation decision techniques and methods for assessing social vulnerability and resilience These and other papers were subjected to peer review and most have now been published as two special journal issues Roughly, a division has been made between the theory and practice of adaptation Most papers found in a special issue of Environmental Monitoring and Assessment (MacIver and Dallmeier, 1999) present adaptive management and sectoral issues All papers in this special issue (MacIver and Klein, 1999) contribute to the advancement of methodologies for adaptation science They propose, discuss or apply methodological concepts or frameworks for assessing adaptation research and for planning and implementing adaptation options from a range of perspectives Smit et al (1999) examine the conceptual basis of adaptation assessment They distinguish between two types of adaptation assessment: positive and normative, both of ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES 195 which are relevant to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Positive assessment is a predictive exercise, estimating the likelihood of adaptations given plausible impact scenarios (what adaptations could take place?) Normative assessment extends this exercise with an evaluation of the likely options and thus results in policy recommendations (what adaptations should take place?) The framework presented by Smit et al (1999) will help to inform and structure the treatment of adaptation in IPCC and other assessments Basher (1999) discusses the important aspect of data availability for adaptation purposes Effective adaptation relies on relevant, accurate and up-to-date data to inform scientists and managers Data and information are required for adaptation research, for the development and testing of adaptation methods, and for the routine operation of adaptations Basher (1999) identifies a number of constraints to the accessibility and use of data and information, including data charges, inadequate monitoring networks and lack of awareness of relevant data, leading to incomplete or inappropriate data collection Wheaton and MacIver (1999) identify the critical need to understand and develop adaptation options and to reduce the social and economic vulnerabilities induced by climate variability and change They use key questions to build a framework for adaptation by organising the questions into three major areas: adaptation science, adaptive management and adaptation options The authors identify that the move towards adaptation research, management and options needs to be fully supported along with mitigation Klein et al (1999) evaluate the applicability of the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations (Carter et al., 1994) to assess adaptation in coastal zones Based on case studies from The Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Japan, they develop a framework for coastal adaptation that comprises four steps: (i) information collection and awareness raising, (ii) planning and design, (iii) implementation and (iv) monitoring and evaluation They conclude that the IPCC Technical Guidelines consider adaptation assessment primarily to be the evaluation of implementable options, rather than the assessment of a system’s adaptive capacity To assess a system’s adaptive capacity, the entire process of adaptation must be considered Adger and Kelly (1999) present a conceptual model of vulnerability at the level of individuals and communities Instead of using impact scenarios of a future climate, they study adaptive processes in communities to today’s climate and socio-economic context, and investigate how these processes serve to increase or decrease vulnerability to climate change Using poverty, inequality and institutional adaptation as indicators of vulnerability, they find remarkable differences in relative vulnerability between groups within eleven Vietnamese coastal communities They conclude that vulnerability at this level is determined by the availability of resources and by the entitlement of individuals or communities to call on these resources Handmer et al (1999) also approach vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change from a societal perspective From studying food supply security, the emergency planning and management industry and a case study of Australia, they identify five themes that determine societal adaptive capacity: (i) vulnerability and resilience, (ii) globalisation and markets, (iii) institutional responses, (iv) uncertainty and (v) the 196 RICHARD J.T KLEIN AND DONALD C MACIVER physical environment They conclude that human societies in general are highly adaptable and that constant adaptive behaviour is a characteristic of social, political and economic activity However, large disparities exist between and within regions In places without strong institutions, well-functioning systems and economic power, even minor climate variability may be catastrophic Bruce (1999) discusses the role of disaster loss mitigation in further detail He reflects on the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction and provides an overview of a range of recent weather-related extremes He argues that the occurrence of weatherrelated disasters has shown a sharper increase over the past three decades than that of other, non-atmospheric, natural disasters According to Bruce (1999), this shows that changes in land use and increased exposure of population and infrastructure are not the only factors contributing to a trend of increasing damages At least on a regional scale, changes in climate are also to blame Based on the natural-hazard literature, Bruce (1999) suggests six categories of adaptation aimed at minimising risks: (i) warning systems, (ii) preparedness, (iii) safe buildings, (iv) water structure safety, (v) other infrastructure safety and (vi) land-use planning Berz (1999) also presents statistics that show increasing trends of weather-related disasters and damages He focuses on the impacts of these disasters on the insurance industry and on the possible responses of this industry to such disasters, particularly when they would become more frequent or intense as climate changes These responses could include increasing deductibles or restricting cover Berz (1999) also suggests that the insurance industry become more active when it comes to climate protection and set its clients an example of precautionary action Yohe and Dowlatabadi (1999) present IPCC with ten lessons drawn from adaptation analyses under conditions of risk and uncertainty They scold IPCC for its efforts of “science by consensus” and argue that for its Third Assessment Report, IPCC cannot afford to continue in that tradition According to Yohe and Dowlatabadi (1999), science by consensus fails to consider the low-probability-high-risk extremes associated with climate change Yet, robust adaptation to climate change depends on a better understanding of these extremes Yohe and Dowlatabadi (1999) also warn IPCC for too great a reliance on integrated assessment, for this type of analysis will never accommodate adequately the richness and diversity of climate adaptation across the world Leary (1999) develops a cost-benefit framework for evaluating the consequences of climate adaptation on social welfare In doing so, he distinguishes between autonomous adaptation (i.e., actions taken by individual households or firms that are in their own interest) and public adaptation (i.e., collective actions to protect public goods, or the provision thereof) Leary (1999) also discusses the optimal timing of adaptation He shows that when benefits of adaptation are uncertain (e.g., because of uncertainty about impacts), it could be optimal to postpone irreversible investments until more information is obtained He therefore concludes that investing in research and in adaptation measures that address both future and current concerns is to be preferred Smith (1999) combines climatic, hydrological and socio-economic information to assess the policy implications of urban flooding in three Australian catchment areas He ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES 197 finds that in each catchment there is a sharp increase in the number of flood-prone buildings above the flood level corresponding with the current 100-year return period This results in a climate-change damage curve that resembles a step function Smith (1999) therefore recommends both no-regret and precautionary measures, to be taken within the current framework of local government response El-Raey et al (1999) provide a brief summary of anticipated impacts of sea-level rise in the Nile Delta and apply a decision matrix to evaluate adaptation options They show that the Nile Delta is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to sea-level rise and that adaptation can be very costly They conclude that a combination of beach nourishment and hard structures would be the optimal adaptation, to be carried out in a framework of integrated coastal zone management References Adger, W.N and Kelly, P.M.: 1999, ‘Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, this issue Basher, R.E.: 1999, ‘Data requirements for developing adaptations to climate variability and change’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, this issue Berz, G.A.: 1999, ‘Catastrophes and climate change: concerns and possible countermeasures of the insurance industry’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, this issue Bruce, J.P.: 1999, ‘Disaster loss mitigation as an adaptation to climate variability and change’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, this issue Burton, I, Kates, R.W and White, G.F.: 1993, The Environment as Hazard, Second edition, Guilford Press, New York Carter, T.R., Parry, M.L., Nishioka, S and Harasawa, H (eds): 1994, Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations, Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, University College London and Centre for Global Environmental Research, London and Tsukuba, 59 pp El-Raey, M., Dewidar, Kh and El-Hattab, M.: 1999, ‘Adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise in Egypt’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, this issue Handmer, J.W., Dovers, S and Downing, T.E.: 1999, ‘Societal vulnerability to climate change and variability’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, this issue Kates, R.W.: 1997, ‘Climate change 1995–impacts, adaptations, and mitigation’, Environment, 39(9), 29-33 Klein, R.J.T., Nicholls, R.J and Mimura, N.: 1999, ‘Coastal adaptation to climate change: can the IPCC Technical Guidelines be applied?’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, this issue Leary, N.A.: 1999, ‘A framework for benefit-cost analysis of adaptation to climate change and climate variability’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, this issue MacIver, D.C 1998, IPCC Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Summary Report to IPCC Environment Canada, 29 pp MacIver, D.C (ed.) 1998, Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Workshop Summary Environment Canada, 55 pp MacIver, D.C and Dallmeier, F (eds): 1999, Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Adaptative Management, Special Issue of Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, in press MacIver, D.C and Klein, R.J.T (eds): 1999, IPCC Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Methodological Issues, Special Issue of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, this issue Parry, M., Arnell, N., Hulme, M., Nicholls, R and Livermore, M.: 1998, ‘Adapting to the inevitable’, Nature, 395, 741 Pielke, R.A., Jr.: 1998, ‘Rethinking the role of adaptation in climate policy’, Global Environmental Change, 8(2), 159-170 198 RICHARD J.T KLEIN AND DONALD C MACIVER Raper, S.C.B., Wigley, T.M.L and Warrick, R.A.: 1996, ‘Global sea level rise: past and future’, in J.D Milliman and B.U Haq (eds), Sea Level Rise and Coastal Subsidence-Causes, Consequences, and Strategies, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp 11-45 Santer, B.D., Wigley, T.M.L., Barnett, T.P and Anyamba, E.: 1996, ‘Detection of climate change and attribution of causes’, in J.T Houghton, L.G Meira Filho, B.A Callander, N Harris, A Kattenberg and K Maskell (eds), Climate Change 1995-The Science of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 407-443 Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R.J.T and Street, R.: 1999, ‘The science of adaptation: a framework for assessment’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, this issue Smith, D.I.: 1999, ‘Urban flood damage and greenhouse scenarios-the implications for policy: an example from Australia’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, this issue Wheaton E.E and MacIver, D.C 1998 Working Paper on Adaptation to Climate Varibaility and Change in MacIver, D.C IPCC Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Environment Canada, 29 pp Wheaton, E.E and MacIver, D.C.: 1999, ‘A framework and key questions for adapting to climate variability and change’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, this issue Wigley, T.M.L.: 1995, ‘Global-mean temperature and sea level consequences of greenhouse gas concentration stabilization’, Geophysical Research Letters, 22(1), 45-48 Yohe, G and Dowlatabadi, H.: 1999, ‘Risk and uncertainties, analysis and evaluation: lessons for adaptation and integration’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, this issue  ... capabilities to anticipate or respond to climatechange impacts The identification of indicators can act as early-warning systems of climate change Adaptation to climate variability and change can be "autonomous"... increased by climate variability and change, particularly extreme-weather events Many technologies that can be used to adapt to climate change are already in use to adapt to climate variability. .. Wheaton and MacIver (1999) identify the critical need to understand and develop adaptation options and to reduce the social and economic vulnerabilities induced by climate variability and change