Tác động của nợ công đến tăng trưởng kinh tế bằng chứng tại các nước đang phát triển

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Tác động của nợ công đến tăng trưởng kinh tế  bằng chứng tại các nước đang phát triển

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B TR GIÁO D CăVĨă ĨOăT O NGă I H C KINH T TP.HCM o0o LÂM NG C THIÊN LÝ TÁCă NG C A N CÔNG N T NGăTR KINH T : B NG CH NG T IăCÁCăN PHÁT TRI N LU NăV NăTH CăS ăKINHăT TP H Chí Minh ậ N mă2015 NG Că ANGă B TR GIÁO D CăVĨă ĨOăT O NGă I H C KINH T TP.HCM o0o LÂM NG C THIÊN LÝ TÁCă NG C A N CÔNG N T NGăTR KINH T : B NG CH NG T IăCÁCăN PHÁT TRI N Chuyên ngành : Tài – Ngân hàng Mã s : 60340201 LU NăV NăTH CăS ăKINHăT NG IH NG D N KHOA H C PGS.TS LÊ TH LANH TP H Chí Minh - N mă2015 NG Că ANGă L IăCAMă OAN Tôi xin cam đoan Lu n v n Th c s Kinh t ắTácă đ ng c a n côngă đ nă t ngă tr ng kinh t : b ng ch ng t iăcácăn căđangăphátătri n” cơng trình nghiên c u c a riêng Các s li u k t qu nghiên c u lu n v n trung th c.Các tài li u, s li u trích d n đư đ hi n d is h c ghi rõ ngu n g c.Lu n v n đ c th c ng d n khoa h c c a PGS.TS Lê Th Lanh Tơi xin hồn tồn ch u trách nhi m v i cam k t nêu TP HCM, ngày 10 tháng 10 n m 2015 Lâm Ng c Thiên Lý H c viên cao h c khóa 21 Chun ngành: Tài doanh nghi p Tr ng i h c Kinh t TP HCM M CăL C TRANG PH BÌA L IăCAMă OAN M CL C DANH M C CÁC T VI T T T THU T NG DANH M C CÁC B NG BI U DANH M C HÌNH V ,ă TH DANH M C CÁC PH L C TÓM T T CH NGă1:ăPH N M U .2 1.1 Lý ch n đ tài .2 1.2 M c tiêu nghiên c u it 1.3 1.4 Ph ng ph m vi nghiên c u ng pháp nghiên c u 1.5 ụ ngh a th c ti n c a đ tài nghiên c u 1.6 Tính m i c a đ tài 1.7 K t c u c a lu n v n CH NGă 2ă :ă C ă S LÝ THUY T VÀ K T QU NGHIÊN C UăTR C ỂY 2.1 N công c a m t qu c gia .5 2.2 Lý thuy t nhô n .6 2.3 Lý thuy t v hi u ng l n át 11 2.4 Tiêu chí đánh giá m c đ an toàn n n c đ i qu c gia có thu nh p th p 12 CH NGă3:ăD LI UăVĨăPH NGăPHÁPăNGHIểNăC U 19 3.1 Mơ hình nghiên c u 19 3.2 M u d li u nghiên c u 26 3.3 Ph CH ng pháp nghiên c u 34 NGă4:ăN I DUNG VÀ CÁC K T QU NGHIÊN C U 37 4.1K t qu h i quy mơ hình 37 4.2 Ki m đ nh mơ hình 45 CH NGă5:ăK T LU N 45 5.1 K t lu n hàm ý 45 5.2 H n ch c a lu n v n 47 DANH M C TÀI LI U THAM KH O PH L C DANHăM CăCÁCăT ăVI TăT T CPIA : Ch s đánh giá th ch sách qu c gia DSF : Ch s đánh giá nguy c c ng th ng n GDP : T ng s n ph m qu c n i GNP : T ng s n ph m qu c dân GNI : T ng thu nh p qu c dân HIPC : Các n IDA : Hi p h i phát tri n qu c t IMF : Qu ti n t qu c t LICs : Các qu c gia có thu nh p th p NPV : Giá tr hi n t i thu n ODA : H tr phát tri n th c WB : Ngân hàng th gi i c nghèo m c n cao THU T NG Ngân hàng Th gi i (World Bank): m t t ch c tài qu c t n i cung c p nh ng kho n vay nh m thúc đ y kinh t cho n ch c phát tri n thơng qua ng trình vay v n Ngân hàng Th gi i tuyên b m c tiêu c a gi m thi u đói nghèo Qu ti n t qu c t (IMF): m t t ch c qu c t c a 188 qu c gia, làm vi c đ thúc đ y h p tác ti n t toàn c u, đ m b o s th n đ nh tài chính, t o thu n l i cho ng m i qu c t , thúc đ y vi c làm t ng tr ng kinh t b n v ng gi m đói nghèo th gi i Ch s đánhăgiáăvƠăth ch qu c gia (CPIA):đây tiêu chu n đ phân b tài kho n qu c gia t IDA T l CPIA qu c gia d a b 16 tiêu chí đ ct p h p nhóm: (a) qu n lý kinh t , (b) sách c u trúc, (c) sách v hịa nh p cơng b ng xã h i, (d) qu n lý th ch công Các x p h ng đ th c hi n t n m 1997 đ c c WB th c hi n hàng n m Hi p h i Phát tri n Qu c t (IDA):thu c Nhóm Ngân hàng Th gi i (WBG) c thành l p vào n m 1960, IDA nh m m c đích gi m nghèo b ng cách cung c p kho n vay (đ tr c g i "tín d ng") tài tr cho ch ng trình thúc đ y t ng ng kinh t , gi m b t bình đ ng c i thi n u ki n s ng c a ng Các qu c gia nghèo m c n (HIPC): Các qu c gia đ i dân c Qu ti n t qu c t Ngân hàng Th gi i xác đ nh đ u ki n tham gia sáng ki n gi m n cho qu c gia nghèo m c n Tiêu chí sáng ki n HIPC bao g m đánh giá c a Ngân hàng Th gi i Qu ti n t qu c t cho th y m t "nhu c u ti m n ng cho vi c gi m n HIPC" thu nh p bình quân đ u ng id i 785 $, đ c quy n vay IDA c a Ngân hàng Th gi i t PRGF c a Qu ti n t qu c t H tr phát tri n th c (ODA)là m t thu t ng đ c s d ng l n đâu vào n m 1969 b i y ban H tr phát tri n (DAC) c a T ch c H p tác Kinh t Phát tri n (OECD), (ODA) m t phân lo i ngu n tài tr t 22 n ng b n tiêu chí M t cho vay t liên bang, trung quy n đ a ph ng Hai đáp ng ngu n v n cho n c c a DAC đáp ng, t nh, nhà n c, c phát tri n n c đ u ki n đ c l a ch n b i t ch c qu c t OECD d a ch s khác (GNI bình qn, gia t ng giá tr nơng nghi p, tu i th , ) Không bao g m n n c trình chuy n đ i sang n n kinh t th tr ng nhi u c phát tri n tiên ti n Ba m c đích cho vay h tr cho phát tri n, nhân đ o pháp lý ho c hành pháp.B n tài tr cho vay u đưi nh t 25% DANHăM CăCÁCăB NGăBI U B ng 2.1: C u trúc tr n c a n nhi u gi thi t khác B ng 2.2: Tiêu chí đánh giá m c đ n n c B ng 3.1: D báo m i quan h gi a bi n đ c l p t c đ t ng GDP bình qn đ u ng i mơ hình n tính B ng 3.2: D báo m i quan h gi a bi n đ c l p t c đ t ng GDP bình quân đ u ng i mơ hình phi n b c B ng 3.3: D báo m i quan h gi a bi n đ c l p t c đ t ng GDP bình quân đ u ng i mơ hình phi n d ng ng B ng 3.4: Danh sách n ng c m u nghiên c u B ng 3.5: Danh sách bi n s d ng mơ hình B ng 4.1: Ki m tra v n đ đa c ng n mơ hình B ng 4.2: Th ng kê mơ t bi n mơ hình B ng 4.3: Ma tr n t t ng quan c a bi n mơ hình B ng 4.4: K t qu mơ hình n cơng - t ng tr ng (Base case) B ng 4.5: K t qu mơ hình n cơng - t ng tr ng (Khơng có bi n CPIA) DANHăM CăHỊNHăV ,ă Hình 2.1: Hình 4.1: ăTH ng cong Laffter v n th phân tán gi a n công t ng tr ng kinh t DANHăM CăCÁCăPH ăL C Ph l c 1: K t qu h i quy mơ hình n cơng – t ng tr ng (Base case) Ph l c 2: K t qu h i quy mơ hình n cơng – t ng tr ng (Khơng có bi n CPIA) TịMăT T Cu c kh ng ho ng toàn c u v n đ gia t ng n công t i nhi u qu c gia đư làm nhà ho ch đ nh sách nhà nghiên c u Ủ đ n v tác đ ng l n c a n công đ n t ng tr ng Nghiên c u th c nghi m c a tác gi u tra tác đ ng c a n công đ n t ng tr ng n c đáng phát tri n có m c thu nh p th p trung bình Bài nghiên c u nh m b sung b ng ch ng hi n t i t p trung vào n phát tri n, n i mà s gia t ng vay n c c đư b t đ u tr c cu c kh ng ho ng, tác gi đư phân tích tồn di n h n, không ch d a n n c ngồi, mà cịn v t ng n cơng K t qu d li u b ng c a 68 n n m 1999 đ n n m 2013 b ng ph tác đ ng tiêu c c đ n t ng tr 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Evidence from Sub Saharan HIPCs Research Report – United Nations Economic Commission for Africa 102 Thori, L.J.T., Halvor, 2007 With or Without U? - The appropriate test for a U shaped relationship Department of Economics, University of Oslo 103 Tokunbo, S.O and Oladele, E.O., 2006 Budget Deficits, External Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria Econometrics and International Development, Vol 6, No 104 Weiss, M.A., 2012 The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative Congressional Research Service PH L C Ph l c 1: K t qu h i quy mơ hình n cơng – t ng tr ng (Base case) xtabond2 growth laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt legal ethnic i.year i.region, gmm( laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt, lag > (1 2)) iv(legal ethnic i.year i.region) two sm r Favoring speed over space To switch, type or click on mata: mata set matafavor space, perm 1b.year dropped due to collinearity 1b.region dropped due to collinearity Warning: Number of instruments may be large relative to number of observations Warning: Two-step estimated covariance matrix of moments is singular Using a generalized inverse to calculate optimal weighting matrix for two-step estimation Difference-in-Sargan/Hansen statistics may be negative Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step system GMM Group variable: id Time variable : year Number of instruments = 89 F(18, 67) = 5.65 Prob > F = 0.000 Number of obs Number of groups Obs per group: avg max Corrected Std Err t P>|t| = = = = = 340 68 5.00 growth Coef [95% Conf Interval] laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt legal ethnic -.0108207 0258517 -.005049 -.0524518 0186966 0043217 -.0182216 0013988 -.0108532 0056655 0104133 0038191 0288102 0080249 0094874 008223 0035641 0138034 -1.91 2.48 -1.32 -1.82 2.33 0.46 -2.22 0.39 -0.79 0.060 0.016 0.191 0.073 0.023 0.650 0.030 0.696 0.434 -.022129 0050668 -.012672 -.1099573 0026789 -.0146153 -.0346348 -.0057151 -.0384049 0004876 0466367 0025739 0050537 0347143 0232586 -.0018084 0085127 0166986 year 0104846 0071282 -.0035111 -.0023353 0027759 0052435 0076678 0077674 3.78 1.36 -0.46 -0.30 0.000 0.179 0.649 0.765 0049439 -.0033379 -.018816 -.0178391 0160254 0175943 0117939 0131684 region 0022601 -.0007116 0005935 -.0071333 -.0063248 0083309 0098766 0141386 0111257 0137743 0.27 -0.07 0.04 -0.64 -0.46 0.787 0.943 0.967 0.524 0.648 -.0143684 -.0204254 -.0276274 -.0293403 -.0338186 0188886 0190023 0288144 0150736 0211689 _cons 255026 1389334 1.84 0.071 -.0222863 5323382 Instruments for first differences equation Standard D.(legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L(1/2).(laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt) Instruments for levels equation Standard legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region _cons GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) D.(laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt) Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.78 Pr > z = 0.000 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.77 Pr > z = 0.077 Sargan test of (Not robust, Hansen test of (Robust, but overid restrictions: chi2(70) = 144.31 Prob > chi2 = 0.000 but not weakened by many instruments.) overid restrictions: chi2(70) = 55.85 Prob > chi2 = 0.891 weakened by many instruments.) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: GMM instruments for levels Hansen test excluding group: chi2(42) = 46.28 Prob > chi2 = Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(28) = 9.57 Prob > chi2 = iv(legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region Hansen test excluding group: chi2(59) = 53.19 Prob > chi2 = Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(11) = 2.67 Prob > chi2 = 0.300 1.000 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) 0.689 0.994 xtabond2 growth laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt pdebt2 legal ethnic i.year i.region, gmm(pdebt pdebt2 invest inflat open human, la > g(2 2)) iv(cpia legal ethnic i.year i.region) two sm r Favoring speed over space To switch, type or click on mata: mata set matafavor space, perm 1b.year dropped due to collinearity 1b.region dropped due to collinearity Warning: Two-step estimated covariance matrix of moments is singular Using a generalized inverse to calculate optimal weighting matrix for two-step estimation Difference-in-Sargan/Hansen statistics may be negative Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step system GMM Group variable: id Time variable : year Number of instruments = 49 F(19, 67) = 4.39 Prob > F = 0.000 Number of obs Number of groups Obs per group: avg max Corrected Std Err t P>|t| = = = = = 340 68 5.00 growth Coef laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt pdebt2 legal ethnic -.0104995 0178321 -.0166048 -.0019337 0332036 0021849 0196752 -.151664 0006101 -.0221829 010454 0191706 0078379 0471119 0184749 0092597 0114221 0815836 0053763 0182301 -1.00 0.93 -2.12 -0.04 1.80 0.24 1.72 -1.86 0.11 -1.22 0.319 0.356 0.038 0.967 0.077 0.814 0.090 0.067 0.910 0.228 -.0313657 -.0204325 -.0322492 -.0959695 -.0036726 -.0162976 -.0031234 -.3145054 -.0101212 -.0585703 [95% Conf Interval] 0103667 0560968 -.0009604 092102 0700797 0206674 0424738 0111775 0113413 0142044 year 0071021 0056923 -.0006338 0012141 0044986 0078195 0074609 0095745 1.58 0.73 -0.08 0.13 0.119 0.469 0.933 0.899 -.0018771 -.0099156 -.0155257 -.0178967 0160814 0213001 0142582 0203249 region 0038408 0059363 0112799 -.011116 -.0221286 0110858 0100544 0159092 0137165 0141904 0.35 0.59 0.71 -0.81 -1.56 0.730 0.557 0.481 0.421 0.124 -.0182866 -.0141324 -.020475 -.0384943 -.0504527 0259682 0260049 0430349 0162623 0061955 _cons 2244727 1668046 1.35 0.183 -.1084707 5574162 Instruments for first differences equation Standard D.(cpia legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L2.(pdebt pdebt2 invest inflat open human) Instruments for levels equation Standard cpia legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region _cons GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) DL.(pdebt pdebt2 invest inflat open human) Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = Sargan test of (Not robust, Hansen test of (Robust, but overid restrictions: chi2(29) = 37.70 but not weakened by many instruments.) overid restrictions: chi2(29) = 38.06 weakened by many instruments.) -3.80 -1.14 Pr > z = Pr > z = 0.000 0.256 Prob > chi2 = 0.129 Prob > chi2 = 0.121 Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: GMM instruments for levels Hansen test excluding group: chi2(11) = 18.69 Prob > chi2 = 0.067 Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(18) = 19.37 Prob > chi2 = 0.369 iv(cpia legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) Hansen test excluding group: chi2(17) = 18.85 Prob > chi2 = 0.337 Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(12) = 19.21 Prob > chi2 = 0.084 utest pdebt pdebt2 Specification: f(x)=x^2 Extreme point: 3.854185 Test: H1: U shape vs H0: Monotone or Inverse U shape Lower bound Interval Slope t-value P>|t| 1.91191 -.0764294 -1.988821 0254035 Overall test of presence of a U shape: t-value = 1.42 P>|t| = 0799 Upper bound 5.457 0630715 1.421244 0799419 xtabond2 growth laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt01 pdebt10 legal ethnic i.year i.region, gmm(laggdp invest inflat human open cpia p > debt01 pdebt10, lag(1 1)) iv(legal ethnic i.year i.region) two sm r Favoring speed over space To switch, type or click on mata: mata set matafavor space, perm 1b.year dropped due to collinearity 1b.region dropped due to collinearity Warning: Number of instruments may be large relative to number of observations Warning: Two-step estimated covariance matrix of moments is singular Using a generalized inverse to calculate optimal weighting matrix for two-step estimation Difference-in-Sargan/Hansen statistics may be negative Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step system GMM Group variable: id Time variable : year Number of instruments = 76 F(19, 67) = 8.49 Prob > F = 0.000 Number of obs Number of groups Obs per group: avg max Corrected Std Err t P>|t| = = = = = 340 68 5.00 growth Coef [95% Conf Interval] laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt01 pdebt10 legal ethnic -.0112378 0332975 -.0055977 -.0612903 0211592 -.0108651 0236063 -.0038668 001001 -.0138194 0049344 0118383 0032127 0292397 0111581 012094 0128175 0059443 0034935 0157825 -2.28 2.81 -1.74 -2.10 1.90 -0.90 1.84 -0.65 0.29 -0.88 0.026 0.006 0.086 0.040 0.062 0.372 0.070 0.518 0.775 0.384 -.0210869 0096683 -.0120102 -.119653 -.0011125 -.0350049 -.0019775 -.0157316 -.0059721 -.0453215 -.0013886 0569268 0008148 -.0029277 0434308 0132747 04919 007998 0079741 0176827 year 0120119 0084866 0032375 0037962 0029488 0054709 006595 0068466 4.07 1.55 0.49 0.55 0.000 0.126 0.625 0.581 006126 -.0024333 -.0099263 -.0098698 0178978 0194065 0164012 0174621 region 0015374 -.0015132 0018142 -.0075331 -.0176834 0094158 0093212 0102408 0076675 011164 0.16 -0.16 0.18 -0.98 -1.58 0.871 0.872 0.860 0.329 0.118 -.0172567 -.0201185 -.0186266 -.0228375 -.0399669 0203315 017092 0222549 0077713 0046001 _cons 2621358 1199239 2.19 0.032 0227667 501505 Instruments for first differences equation Standard D.(legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L.(laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt01 pdebt10) Instruments for levels equation Standard legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region _cons GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) D.(laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt01 pdebt10) Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.76 Pr > z = 0.000 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.85 Pr > z = 0.064 Sargan test of (Not robust, Hansen test of (Robust, but overid restrictions: chi2(56) = 102.24 Prob > chi2 = 0.000 but not weakened by many instruments.) overid restrictions: chi2(56) = 48.63 Prob > chi2 = 0.747 weakened by many instruments.) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: GMM instruments for levels Hansen test excluding group: chi2(24) = 19.72 Prob > chi2 = Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(32) = 28.91 Prob > chi2 = iv(legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region Hansen test excluding group: chi2(45) = 37.97 Prob > chi2 = Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(11) = 10.67 Prob > chi2 = 0.713 0.624 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) 0.762 0.472 xtabond2 growth laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt01 pdebt19 pdebt09 legal ethnic i.year i.region, gmm(pdebt01 pdebt19 pdebt09 laggd > invest inflat , lag(1 2)) iv(human open cpia legal ethnic i.year i.region) sm r two Favoring speed over space To switch, type or click on mata: mata set matafavor space, perm 1b.year dropped due to collinearity 1b.region dropped due to collinearity Warning: Number of instruments may be large relative to number of observations Warning: Two-step estimated covariance matrix of moments is singular Using a generalized inverse to calculate optimal weighting matrix for two-step estimation Difference-in-Sargan/Hansen statistics may be negative Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step system GMM Group variable: id Time variable : year Number of instruments = 80 F(20, 67) = 10.45 Prob > F = 0.000 Number of obs Number of groups Obs per group: avg max Corrected Std Err t P>|t| = = = = = 340 68 5.00 growth Coef [95% Conf Interval] laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt01 pdebt19 pdebt09 legal ethnic -.0083617 0276732 -.0078369 -.0262721 0102251 0034776 0008261 -.0170333 -.0136019 -.0014407 -.0186115 0068527 0116682 0026597 0249323 0056905 0050475 0140032 0080716 0066536 0042296 0134672 -1.22 2.37 -2.95 -1.05 1.80 0.69 0.06 -2.11 -2.04 -0.34 -1.38 0.227 0.021 0.004 0.296 0.077 0.493 0.953 0.039 0.045 0.734 0.172 -.0220397 0043833 -.0131457 -.0760371 -.0011331 -.0065972 -.0271245 -.0331443 -.0268826 -.009883 -.0454921 0053163 050963 -.0025281 023493 0215834 0135524 0287767 -.0009223 -.0003212 0070016 0082691 year 0099062 0082303 -.0030478 -.0003023 0028798 0040535 0048469 0052894 3.44 2.03 -0.63 -0.06 0.001 0.046 0.532 0.955 0041581 0001396 -.0127222 -.0108599 0156542 016321 0066267 0102553 region -.0014106 -.0029232 -.0028341 -.0149557 -.017827 0090106 0089264 0137237 0113906 0096576 -0.16 -0.33 -0.21 -1.31 -1.85 0.876 0.744 0.837 0.194 0.069 -.0193959 -.0207403 -.0302267 -.0376914 -.0371037 0165747 014894 0245584 0077801 0014497 _cons 1590605 1338939 1.19 0.239 -.1081929 4263138 Instruments for first differences equation Standard D.(human open cpia legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L(1/2).(pdebt01 pdebt19 pdebt09 laggdp invest inflat) Instruments for levels equation Standard human open cpia legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region _cons GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) D.(pdebt01 pdebt19 pdebt09 laggdp invest inflat) Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = Sargan test of (Not robust, Hansen test of (Robust, but overid restrictions: chi2(59) = 114.66 but not weakened by many instruments.) overid restrictions: chi2(59) = 46.19 weakened by many instruments.) -3.85 -1.79 Pr > z = Pr > z = 0.000 0.073 Prob > chi2 = 0.000 Prob > chi2 = 0.888 Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: GMM instruments for levels Hansen test excluding group: chi2(35) = 38.22 Prob > chi2 Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(24) = 7.97 Prob > chi2 iv(human open cpia legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year Hansen test excluding group: chi2(45) = 44.28 Prob > chi2 Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(14) = 1.91 Prob > chi2 = 0.326 = 0.999 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) = 0.502 = 1.000 xtabond2 growth laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt cpiadum cpiapdebt legal ethnic i.year i.region, gmm(laggdp invest inflat human open pde > bt cpiadum cpiapdebt, lag(1 2)) iv(legal ethnic i.year i.region) two sm r Favoring speed over space To switch, type or click on mata: mata set matafavor space, perm 1b.year dropped due to collinearity 1b.region dropped due to collinearity Warning: Number of instruments may be large relative to number of observations Warning: Two-step estimated covariance matrix of moments is singular Using a generalized inverse to calculate optimal weighting matrix for two-step estimation Difference-in-Sargan/Hansen statistics may be negative Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step system GMM Group variable: id Time variable : year Number of instruments = 100 F(19, 67) = 4.81 Prob > F = 0.000 Number of obs Number of groups Obs per group: avg max Corrected Std Err t P>|t| = = = = = 340 68 5.00 growth Coef [95% Conf Interval] laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt cpiadum cpiapdebt legal ethnic -.006225 0214966 -.0066837 -.0605451 0168603 -.0204575 0543441 -.0299615 0021987 -.0105038 0055683 0105321 0034013 031706 0085725 007595 0487727 0278775 0036013 0143178 -1.12 2.04 -1.97 -1.91 1.97 -2.69 1.11 -1.07 0.61 -0.73 0.268 0.045 0.054 0.060 0.053 0.009 0.269 0.286 0.544 0.466 -.0173395 0004743 -.0134727 -.1238305 -.0002505 -.0356172 -.0430066 -.0856052 -.0049895 -.0390821 0048894 0425188 0001054 0027402 0339711 -.0052979 1516948 0256822 0093869 0180746 year 0105688 0065411 -.0071061 -.0050225 0032504 0061875 0096826 0096477 3.25 1.06 -0.73 -0.52 0.002 0.294 0.466 0.604 004081 -.0058091 -.0264326 -.0242793 0170565 0188914 0122204 0142343 region 003455 -.002128 0062879 -.0073043 -.0014742 0067775 0084948 0133503 0110687 0104322 0.51 -0.25 0.47 -0.66 -0.14 0.612 0.803 0.639 0.512 0.888 -.010073 -.0190836 -.0203593 -.0293976 -.022297 0169829 0148276 0329352 014789 0193487 _cons 304468 1531912 1.99 0.051 -.001303 6102389 Instruments for first differences equation Standard D.(legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L(1/2).(laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt cpiadum cpiapdebt) Instruments for levels equation Standard legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region _cons GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) D.(laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt cpiadum cpiapdebt) Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = Sargan test of (Not robust, Hansen test of (Robust, but overid restrictions: chi2(80) = 172.08 but not weakened by many instruments.) overid restrictions: chi2(80) = 52.57 weakened by many instruments.) -3.46 -1.83 Pr > z = Pr > z = 0.001 0.068 Prob > chi2 = 0.000 Prob > chi2 = 0.992 Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: GMM instruments for levels Hansen test excluding group: chi2(48) = 50.17 Prob > chi2 = Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(32) = 2.40 Prob > chi2 = iv(legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region Hansen test excluding group: chi2(69) = 55.80 Prob > chi2 = Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(11) = -3.23 Prob > chi2 = 0.387 1.000 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) 0.874 1.000 Ph l c 2: K t qu h i quy mơ hình n cơng – t ng tr ng (Khơng có bi n CPIA) xtabond2 growth laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt legal ethnic i.year i.region, gmm( invest inflat human open pdebt, lag(1 2)) iv(legal e > thnic i.year i.region) two sm r Favoring speed over space To switch, type or click on mata: mata set matafavor space, perm 1b.year dropped due to collinearity 1b.region dropped due to collinearity Warning: Two-step estimated covariance matrix of moments is singular Using a generalized inverse to calculate optimal weighting matrix for two-step estimation Difference-in-Sargan/Hansen statistics may be negative Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step system GMM Group variable: id Time variable : year Number of instruments = 67 F(17, 67) = 6.70 Prob > F = 0.000 Number of obs Number of groups Obs per group: avg max Corrected Std Err t P>|t| = = = = = 340 68 5.00 growth Coef [95% Conf Interval] laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt legal ethnic -.0051943 0295334 -.0057745 -.0401175 0070735 -.0173504 0015314 -.007758 004639 0105027 0027053 0208567 0081591 0064925 0033914 0101626 -1.12 2.81 -2.13 -1.92 0.87 -2.67 0.45 -0.76 0.267 0.006 0.036 0.059 0.389 0.009 0.653 0.448 -.0144538 0085699 -.0111743 -.0817476 -.0092121 -.0303096 -.0052379 -.0280426 0040651 0504968 -.0003747 0015126 0233591 -.0043913 0083008 0125267 year 0113144 0073992 -.0038693 -.0033353 002811 0056161 0077972 0085464 4.03 1.32 -0.50 -0.39 0.000 0.192 0.621 0.698 0057036 -.0038106 -.0194326 -.020394 0169252 0186089 011694 0137235 region 0014364 -.0032078 0051452 -.0080429 -.0037792 0068396 0092685 014096 0094087 0092804 0.21 -0.35 0.37 -0.85 -0.41 0.834 0.730 0.716 0.396 0.685 -.0122154 -.0217079 -.0229906 -.0268228 -.0223029 0150882 0152923 033281 0107369 0147445 _cons 2068636 0923074 2.24 0.028 0226173 3911099 Instruments for first differences equation Standard D.(legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L(1/2).(invest inflat human open pdebt) Instruments for levels equation Standard legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region _cons GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) D.(invest inflat human open pdebt) Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.80 Pr > z = 0.000 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.83 Pr > z = 0.067 Sargan test of (Not robust, Hansen test of (Robust, but overid restrictions: chi2(49) = 92.19 Prob > chi2 = 0.000 but not weakened by many instruments.) overid restrictions: chi2(49) = 52.23 Prob > chi2 = 0.350 weakened by many instruments.) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: GMM instruments for levels Hansen test excluding group: chi2(29) = 30.25 Prob > chi2 = Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(20) = 21.98 Prob > chi2 = iv(legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region Hansen test excluding group: chi2(38) = 45.71 Prob > chi2 = Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(11) = 6.52 Prob > chi2 = 0.401 0.342 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) 0.182 0.837 xtabond2 growth laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt pdebt2 legal ethnic i.year i.region, gmm(pdebt pdebt2 invest inflat open human, lag(2 > )) iv(cpia legal ethnic i.year i.region) two sm r Favoring speed over space To switch, type or click on mata: mata set matafavor space, perm 1b.year dropped due to collinearity 1b.region dropped due to collinearity Warning: Two-step estimated covariance matrix of moments is singular Using a generalized inverse to calculate optimal weighting matrix for two-step estimation Difference-in-Sargan/Hansen statistics may be negative Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step system GMM Group variable: id Time variable : year Number of instruments = 49 F(18, 67) = 4.41 Prob > F = 0.000 Number of obs Number of groups Obs per group: avg max Corrected Std Err t P>|t| = = = = = 340 68 5.00 growth Coef [95% Conf Interval] laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt pdebt2 legal ethnic -.0094737 0189333 -.0171276 0051756 0319435 0199237 -.153696 000683 -.0218353 0112209 0203581 0065289 0384613 0178059 0112609 0804929 0058701 0192101 -0.84 0.93 -2.62 0.13 1.79 1.77 -1.91 0.12 -1.14 0.402 0.356 0.011 0.893 0.077 0.081 0.060 0.908 0.260 -.0318706 -.0217016 -.0301594 -.0715934 -.0035972 -.0025532 -.3143605 -.0110337 -.0601789 0129232 0595683 -.0040958 0819446 0674841 0424005 0069685 0123997 0165083 year 0068819 0051056 -.0011081 000398 0045852 0075737 0069698 0088066 1.50 0.67 -0.16 0.05 0.138 0.503 0.874 0.964 -.0022701 -.0100116 -.0150198 -.01718 0160339 0202228 0128037 017976 region 0046151 0060221 0115197 -.0111426 -.021237 0110349 0105961 0174875 0145174 0147288 0.42 0.57 0.66 -0.77 -1.44 0.677 0.572 0.512 0.445 0.154 -.0174106 -.0151278 -.0233854 -.0401194 -.0506358 0266408 0271719 0464248 0178342 0081619 _cons 1983025 1634327 1.21 0.229 -.1279105 5245156 Instruments for first differences equation Standard D.(cpia legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L2.(pdebt pdebt2 invest inflat open human) Instruments for levels equation Standard cpia legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region _cons GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) DL.(pdebt pdebt2 invest inflat open human) Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.80 Pr > z = 0.000 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.15 Pr > z = 0.249 Sargan test of (Not robust, Hansen test of (Robust, but overid restrictions: chi2(30) = 37.79 Prob > chi2 = 0.155 but not weakened by many instruments.) overid restrictions: chi2(30) = 39.35 Prob > chi2 = 0.118 weakened by many instruments.) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: GMM instruments for levels Hansen test excluding group: chi2(12) = 19.07 Prob > chi2 = 0.087 Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(18) = 20.28 Prob > chi2 = 0.317 iv(cpia legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) Hansen test excluding group: chi2(18) = 18.95 Prob > chi2 = 0.395 Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(12) = 20.39 Prob > chi2 = 0.060 xtabond2 growth laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt01 pdebt10 legal ethnic i.year i.region, gmm(laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt01 pde > bt10, lag(1 1)) iv(legal ethnic i.year i.region) two sm r Favoring speed over space To switch, type or click on mata: mata set matafavor space, perm 1b.year dropped due to collinearity 1b.region dropped due to collinearity Warning: Two-step estimated covariance matrix of moments is singular Using a generalized inverse to calculate optimal weighting matrix for two-step estimation Difference-in-Sargan/Hansen statistics may be negative Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step system GMM Group variable: id Time variable : year Number of instruments = 68 F(18, 67) = 6.58 Prob > F = 0.000 Number of obs Number of groups Obs per group: avg max Corrected Std Err t P>|t| = = = = = 340 68 5.00 growth Coef [95% Conf Interval] laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt01 pdebt10 legal ethnic -.0079339 0375112 -.0063159 -.048754 0173673 0257019 -.0028761 0017701 -.0116461 0051316 0106403 0035927 0261847 0130177 0124625 0061894 0033912 0103621 -1.55 3.53 -1.76 -1.86 1.33 2.06 -0.46 0.52 -1.12 0.127 0.001 0.083 0.067 0.187 0.043 0.644 0.603 0.265 -.0181766 0162731 -.013487 -.1010188 -.0086161 0008266 -.0152301 -.0049987 -.0323289 0023088 0587494 0008553 0035108 0433507 0505771 0094779 008539 0090366 year 0101576 0084962 0011798 002082 0031721 0057667 0065211 0069727 3.20 1.47 0.18 0.30 0.002 0.145 0.857 0.766 003826 -.0030143 -.0118364 -.0118356 0164892 0200067 014196 0159997 region 001505 -.002155 0054864 -.0055751 -.0173073 0077385 0095914 01174 007828 0107469 0.19 -0.22 0.47 -0.71 -1.61 0.846 0.823 0.642 0.479 0.112 -.013941 -.0212996 -.0179467 -.0211998 -.0387583 0169511 0169895 0289195 0100496 0041436 _cons 1400376 102857 1.36 0.178 -.0652658 3453409 Instruments for first differences equation Standard D.(legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L.(laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt01 pdebt10) Instruments for levels equation Standard legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region _cons GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) D.(laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt01 pdebt10) Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.77 Pr > z = 0.000 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.63 Pr > z = 0.103 Sargan test of (Not robust, Hansen test of (Robust, but overid restrictions: chi2(49) = 83.80 Prob > chi2 = 0.001 but not weakened by many instruments.) overid restrictions: chi2(49) = 48.07 Prob > chi2 = 0.511 weakened by many instruments.) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: GMM instruments for levels Hansen test excluding group: chi2(21) = 17.50 Prob > chi2 = Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(28) = 30.57 Prob > chi2 = iv(legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region Hansen test excluding group: chi2(38) = 33.98 Prob > chi2 = Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(11) = 14.09 Prob > chi2 = 0.681 0.336 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) 0.656 0.228 xtabond2 growth laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt01 pdebt19 pdebt09 legal ethnic i.year i.region, gmm(pdebt01 pdebt19 pdebt09 laggdp inve > st inflat , lag(1 2)) iv(human open legal ethnic i.year i.region) sm r two Favoring speed over space To switch, type or click on mata: mata set matafavor space, perm 1b.year dropped due to collinearity 1b.region dropped due to collinearity Warning: Number of instruments may be large relative to number of observations Warning: Two-step estimated covariance matrix of moments is singular Using a generalized inverse to calculate optimal weighting matrix for two-step estimation Difference-in-Sargan/Hansen statistics may be negative Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step system GMM Group variable: id Time variable : year Number of instruments = 79 F(19, 67) = 6.74 Prob > F = 0.000 Number of obs Number of groups Obs per group: avg max Corrected Std Err t P>|t| = = = = = 340 68 5.00 growth Coef [95% Conf Interval] laggdp invest inflat human open pdebt01 pdebt19 pdebt09 legal ethnic -.0076765 0292755 -.0066373 -.0052588 0114136 0060348 -.014997 -.0114244 0000655 -.0128534 0073261 0121929 0034927 0203569 0060177 0139075 0088427 0074231 0036802 0136022 -1.05 2.40 -1.90 -0.26 1.90 0.43 -1.70 -1.54 0.02 -0.94 0.298 0.019 0.062 0.797 0.062 0.666 0.095 0.129 0.986 0.348 -.0222993 0049384 -.0136087 -.0458913 -.0005978 -.0217247 -.0326471 -.026241 -.0072802 -.0400034 0069464 0536126 0003342 0353737 0234249 0337943 002653 0033921 0074111 0142967 year 0106174 0070656 -.0045595 -.000187 0033922 0046664 0059887 0060433 3.13 1.51 -0.76 -0.03 0.003 0.135 0.449 0.975 0038465 -.0022487 -.0165131 -.0122494 0173883 0163798 007394 0118755 region 0026031 0012559 0031587 -.0080581 -.0139746 0079682 0078119 0124581 01122 0095252 0.33 0.16 0.25 -0.72 -1.47 0.745 0.873 0.801 0.475 0.147 -.0133014 -.0143368 -.0217078 -.0304533 -.0329869 0185076 0168486 0280251 0143371 0050377 _cons 0391079 0877001 0.45 0.657 -.1359422 214158 Instruments for first differences equation Standard D.(human open legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L(1/2).(pdebt01 pdebt19 pdebt09 laggdp invest inflat) Instruments for levels equation Standard human open legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region _cons GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) D.(pdebt01 pdebt19 pdebt09 laggdp invest inflat) Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = Sargan test of (Not robust, Hansen test of (Robust, but overid restrictions: chi2(59) = 114.92 but not weakened by many instruments.) overid restrictions: chi2(59) = 53.89 weakened by many instruments.) -3.87 -1.79 Pr > z = Pr > z = 0.000 0.073 Prob > chi2 = 0.000 Prob > chi2 = 0.664 Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: GMM instruments for levels Hansen test excluding group: chi2(35) = 36.73 Prob > Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(24) = 17.16 Prob > iv(human open legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year Hansen test excluding group: chi2(46) = 43.66 Prob > Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(13) = 10.24 Prob > chi2 = 0.388 chi2 = 0.842 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) chi2 = 0.571 chi2 = 0.674 ... Th c s Kinh t ? ?Tác? ? đ ng c a n công? ? đ nă t ngă tr ng kinh t : b ng ch ng t i? ?các? ?n c? ?đang? ?phát? ?tri n” công trình nghiên c u c a riêng tơi Các s li u k t qu nghiên c u lu n v n trung th c .Các tài... có tác đ ng nh th đ n n n kinh t Qua lu n v n ? ?Tác? ?đ ng c a n công? ? nt ngătr ng kinh t : b ng ch ng t i n c b ng ch ng th c nghi m v tác c? ?đang? ?phát? ?tri n”, tác gi mong mu n tìm đ đ ng c a n công? ?... I H C KINH T TP.HCM o0o LÂM NG C THIÊN LÝ TÁCă NG C A N CÔNG N T NGăTR KINH T : B NG CH NG T IăCÁCăN PHÁT TRI N Chuyên ngành : Tài – Ngân hàng Mã s : 60340201 LU NăV NăTH CăS ? ?KINH? ?T

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