B GIÁO D O I H C KINH T TP H CHÍ MINH - - Hồng C Phú CH NG KINH T , VAI TRÒ C A NG TH CH LU Tp H Chí Minh T B GIÁO D O I H C KINH T TP H CHÍ MINH - - Hoàng C Phú CH NG KINH T , VAI TRÒ C A NG TH CH Chuyên ngành: Tài Mã S : 60340201 Ngân hàng LU NG D N KHOA H C: TS Nguy n Kh c Qu c B o Tp H Chí Minh L uc ab c xu t phát t yêu c u phát sinh trình h c t p c u Các s li u có ngu n g c rõ ràng tuân th bày lu c thu th ng nghiên c k t qu trình c trình nghiên c u trung th c c cơng b Tp H Chí Minh, tháng 10 Tác gi lu Hoàng C Phú M CL C DANH M VI T T T DANH M C B NG TÓM T T GI I THI U tv 1.2 M c tiêu nghiên c u ng ph m vi nghiên c u u c ti n c a lu tài LÝ THUY T VÀ T NG QUAN CÁC NGHIÊN C lý thuy t 2.1.2 Lý thuy t v nhân t h p th dòng v n FDI 2.1.2.1 Mơ hình chi t trung-mơ hình OLI 2.1.2.2 Vai trị c a th ng tài m i quan h gi ng kinh t 10 2.2 T ng quan nghiên c ng c 14 c ti p nh 14 2.2.1.1 FDI hi u ng lan t a 14 ng c n xu t kh u: 18 ng c 21 2.2.2 Các nhân t h p th dòng v n FDI 25 25 26 27 28 K t lu 29 31 D LI U 31 3.1 Ngu n d li u 31 31 3.2.1 Phân tích h i quy GMM v i d li u b 3.2.2 Ki ng: 31 nh c ng c : 36 38 K T QU VÀ BÀN LU N 38 4.1 Ma tr n h s 38 4.2 K t qu h i quy mơ hình GMM h th ng v i d li u b ng 39 4.3 K t qu h i quy v i mơ hình OLS 49 4.4 V n i sinh: 52 55 K T LU N 55 5.1 T ng k t k t qu c a nghiên c u 55 5.2 Bài h c kinh nghi m cho Vi t Nam 56 m, h n ch ng nghiên c u ti p theo 57 o Ph l c 1: Danh sách qu c gia Ph l c 2: Ch s t kinh t FDI Ngu n v GDP T ng s n ph m qu c gia WB Ngân hàng th gi i GMM Gerneral method of movements OLS IMF c ti p c t 32 B ng 4.1: Ma tr n h s i kì 1996-2013 38 B ng 4.2: Bi n ph thu i T t c qu ng: System-GMM Th i kì 1996-2013 39 B ng 4.3: Bi n ph thu B ng 4.4: Bi n ph thu bình th c thu nh p trung bình ng: System-GMM Th i kì 1996-2013 41 c thu nh p th p trung ng: System-GMM Th i kì 1996-2013 43 B ng 4.5: Bi n ph thu i T t c qu ng: OLS Trung bình th i kì 1996-2013 49 B ng 4.7: Bi n ph thu i T t c qu ng: OLS Trung bình th i kì 2004-2013 52 TÓM T T Lu c hi n nh m nghiên c ng tr c ti p c a dòng v ng kinh t n, t h c kinh nghi m cho Vi t Nam Bên c nh ng y u t v ch u u vai trò c a ng th ch i quan h gi a FDI ng kinh t u th c nghi n, s d ng bi n c thi t l p d a mơ hình h i cl pg c ti c ngoài, thu nh p ng dân s , bi n v c u trúc, th ch b t n c th c hi n d GMM h th ng v i d li u b i quy ng Bên c nh y c a k t qu v li u thu th p bao g m 33 n thu c khu v c Châu Á Châu M n 1996- 2013 K t qu nghiên c u cho th ng tr c ti p c c ti p ng kinh t Bên c vai trò quan tr ng c a nhân t n mô vài nhân t c u trúc m i quan h gi y ng th ch , s ng GI I THI U 1.1 ki tv k nhiên Laura Alfaro, Areendam Chand - Alguacil, M., Cuadros, A Orts, V (2011) - th nh c nh xem Campos Kinoshita (2008) Th nh t, vi c quy ho ch xây d h t ng m u quan tr ng c h t c n ph i làm Th hai, tính hi u qu c a d c xem xét giám sát m t cách ch t ch , tránh gây th t dịng v Cu i cùng, vi ng phát tri n nên phù h p v i nhu c u c a c ch ng h c xây d ng s ng cao t c, c ng bi n sân bay i v i vi c n tránh tình tr ng ph thu c nhi u vào ngu n tài tr c s d ng ngu n v n m t cách hi u qu M t nh c Vi c v u qu c a d a gi i quy c tình tr ng ph thu c vào ngu n tài tr Ti p theo nh ng c i cách v ch ng th ch Th nh t, c i cách v m t lu t pháp: bao g m lu t s h u trí tu , lu - phá s n nh m t u nh tranh công b ng sân nhà Th hai, vi c g b d n hàng rào thu quan m t xu th t t y u c a trình h i nh p Vi c làm v a khuy n khích s doanh nghi m t c ngồi, v a giúp ng c nh tranh v i c Cu i c n hoàn thi n h th ng tài i 5.3 m, h n ch ng nghiên c u ti p theo c c a Bài nghiên c u có nh c v m t th c ti n S d ng b d li 1996- i quy GMM h th ng v i d li u b c ph c nh m c a mơ hình h i quy OLS GMM chu n t c, bên c pháp kinh t c hi n v ng m nh y c a k t qu h i quy t qu y Bên c t s h n ch nh nh Trong trình thu th p s li u, tính hi n h u c a d li u nên s m u nghiên c u bao g m qu quát Bên c n t s ch i, FDI t l c d li u c a Ngân hàng Th gi i p nh t m t s c n hành thu th p ngu u gây nên tính khơng nh t qn b d li u có th có nh ng ng nh n k t qu h i quy Bài nghiên c u t t mô ch nghiên c u m t s nhân ng c a dòng v n FDI Bên c ng kinh t ng tr c ti n n v i dòng v n FDI nh ng công ngh tiên ti ng nghiên c u ti p theo có th t p trung nghiên c u vào nh ng lan t Vi t Nam ng tr c ti a d a nh ng có th c tác m phát tri n hi n t i c a Danh tham kh o Aitken, Brian J., Gordon H Hanson, and Ann E Harrison (1997), Journal of International Economics, Vol 43, pp 103- 132 Emerging markets Market Integration throughthe Lens of Foreign Direct Investors Journal of International Economics, 66 (2), pp 267 295 Alfaro L., Chanda A., Kalemli- Ozcan S., and Sayek S., 2002, FDI and Economic Growth: The role of Local Financial Markets, paper presented at a joint Conference of the IDB and the World Bank: The FDI race : Who Gets the prize ? 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Á Châu M n 1996- 2013 K t qu nghiên c u cho th ng tr c ti p c c ti p ng kinh t Bên c vai trò quan tr ng c a nhân t n mô vài nhân t c u trúc m i quan h gi y ng th ch , s ng GI I THI U 1.1 ki... n c a c gia vi c t u kh nh vai trò c a dòng v n FDI ng kinh t Trong b i c nh kinh t th gi i h i nh p s p t i Vi t Nam gia nh p kh i c l ng ASEAN t thách th c i v i kinh t Vi t Nam Vi c thu hút