B GIÁO D O I H C KINH T TP H CHÍ MINH LÊ TRUNG HI U M I QUAN H GI A PHÁT TRI N TÀI NG KINH T : B NG CH NG TH C NGHI M T LU N TP H Chí Minh- C CHÂU Á B GIÁO D O I H C KINH T TP H CHÍ MINH LÊ TRUNG HI U M I QUAN H GI A PHÁT TRI N TÀI NG KINH T : B NG CH NG TH C NGHI M T C CHÂU Á Chuyên Ngành : TÀI CHÍNH NGÂN HÀNG Mã S : 60340201 LU NG D N KHOA H C PGS.TS Nguy n Ng TP H Chí Minh- nh L Tôi v M i quan h gi a phát tri n tài ng kinh t : b ng ch ng th c nghi m t n cơng trình nghiên c u c i s c châu Á ng d n c a PGS.TS Nguy n Ng c nh Các s li u, k t qu lu k cơng trình khác Tơi s ch u trách nhi m v n Lê Trung Hi u c công b b t n M cl c Ph bìa L M cl c Danh m c t vi t t t ký hi u Danh m c hình Danh m c b ng Danh m c ph l c TÓM T T I THI U 1.1 S c n thi t v nghiên c u 1.2 M c tiêu nghiên c u 1.3 Câu h i nghiên c u 1.4 Ph m vi nghiên c u u KHUNG LÝ THUY T VÀ T NG QUAN CÁC NGHIÊN C U TR 2.1 Khung lý thuy t ng kinh t 2.1.2 Phát tri n tài 11 2.1.3 M i quan h gi a phát tri ng kinh t 13 2.1.3.1 Phát tri ng kinh t 13 2.1.3.2 Phát tri n tài chính, phân ph i thu nh 2.2 Các nghiên c u tr m nghèo 14 m i quan h phát tri ng kinh t 15 LI U VÀ PH U 22 3.1 D li u 22 u 22 3.2.1 Các bi i di n cho phát tri 3.2.2 Mô t th ng kinh t 22 ng bi n 24 3.2.3 Mơ hình chu i th n 24 3.2.3.1 Mơ hình VAR t ng quát 25 3.2.3.2 háp Toda-Yamamoto 27 d 29 3.2.3.4 Hàm ph n ng xung t ng quát (Generalized Impulse Response Function GIRF) 29 T QU TH C NGHI M 31 4.1 Mô t th ng kê bi 4.2 K t qu mô hình VAR gi i di n 31 c 33 4.2.1 Ki nh nhân qu Granger 33 4.2.1.1 Ki nh nghi 33 tr t 35 4.2.1.3 Ki nh c a mơ hình VAR 37 4.2.1.4 Ki ng liên k t 39 4.2.1.5 Ki nh m i quan h nhân qu Granger 41 4.2.2 K t qu phân rã ph ng sai sai s d ng kinh t 50 4.2.3 K t qu hàm ph n ng xung t ng quát 54 4.3 Phân tích sách ng ý gi a nhóm qu c gia 57 c thu nh p trung bình th p c thu nh p trung bình th p 4.3 57 Nam Á 58 c thu nh p cao châu Á 59 T LU N 61 Tài li u tham kh o Ph l c Danh m c t vi t t c ký hi u Vi t t t IMF SSA WB WDI Tên ti ng Vi t Qu ti n t qu c t Vùng h sa m c Saharan Ngân hàng Th gi i Ch s phát tri n th gi i Ký hi u ADF AIC DCPS Tên ti ng Vi t Ki nh ADF Tiêu chu n Akaike Tín d ng cung c p cho khu v nhân Tài d F FEVD GDP GDPPC GDS GIRF T ng s n ph m n a Thu nh th c T ng ti t ki m qu c gia Hàm ph n ng xung t ng quát GOV Chi tiêu ph GROWTH ng kinh t HQ Tiêu chu n Hannan - Quinn INF M3 OLS PP TRADE SC S.E VAR L m phát N kho n Ki nh Phillips - Perron i Tiêu chu n Schwarz Sai s chu n Mơ hình t h Tên ti ng Anh International Monetary Fund Sub- Saharan Africa World Bank World Development Indicator Tên ti ng Anh Augmented Dickey - Fuller Akaike Information Criterion Domestic credit provide to private sector Finance Forecast error variance decomposition Gross domestic product i GDP per capita Gross savings domestic Generalized Impulse Response Function General government consumption expenditure Economic growth Hannan - Quinn Information Criterion Inflation Liquid liabilities t Ordinary Least Squares Phillips - Perron Schwarz Information Criterion Standard error Vecto Autoregression Danh m c hình 37 vùng Nam Á 38 nhóm thu nh p cao v tr 38 nhóm thu nh p cao v tr 39 Hình 4.5: Hàm ph n ng xung 54 Hình 4.6: Hàm ph n ng xung Nam Á 55 Hình 4.7: Hàm ph n ng xung c a nhóm thu nh p cao 56 Danh m c b ng B ng 2.1: Tóm t t nghiên c ng nghiên c u 20 B ng 4.1: Tóm t t mơ t th ng kê 31 B ng 4.2: Phân lo i thu nh p gi a qu c gia theo Ngân Hàng Th Gi i 32 B ng 4.3: K t qu ki nh nghi 33 B ng 4.4: K t qu ki nh nghi Nam Á 34 B ng 4.5: K t qu ki nh nghi m nhóm thu nh p cao 35 B ng 4.6: K t qu tr t 36 B ng 4.7: K t qu tr t 36 B ng 4.8: K t qu tr t p cao 37 B ng 4.9: K t qu ki ng liên k t khu v Á 39 B ng 4.10: K t qu ki ng liên k t khu v c Nam Á 40 B ng 4.11: K t qu ki ng liên k t nhóm thu nh p cao 40 B ng 4.12: K t qu ki nh Granger v i gi thuy t H0: Bi n i={DCPS, GDS, TRADE, GOV, INF} không d n t B ng 4.13: K t qu ki ng GROWTH ( nh Granger v i gi thuy t H0: Bi n i={GROWTH, GDS, TRADE, GOV, INF} khơng có m i quan h Granger d n t B ng 4.14: K t qu ki 42 43 nh Granger v i gi thuy t H0: Bi n i={GROWTH, DCPS, TRADE, GOV, INF} khơng có m i quan h Granger d n t 44 B ng 4.15: K t qu ki nh Granger v i gi thuy t H0: Bi n i={DCPS, GDS, TRADE, GOV, INF} không d n t B ng 4.16: K t qu ki ng GROWTH (Nam Á) 45 nh Granger v i gi thuy t H0: Bi n i={GROWTH, GDS, TRADE, GOV, INF} khơng có m i quan h Granger d n t i DCPS (Nam Á) 46 B ng 4.17: K t qu ki nh Granger v i gi thuy t H0: Bi n i={GROWTH, DCPS, TRADE, GOV, INF} m i quan h Granger d n t i GDS (Nam Á) 47 B ng 4.18: K t qu ki nh Granger v i gi thuy t H0: Bi n i={DCPS, GDS, TRADE, GOV, INF} không d n t B ng 4.19: K t qu ki ng GROWTH (thu nh p cao) 48 nh Granger v i gi thuy t H0: Bi n i= {GROWTH, GDS, TRADE, GOV, INF} khơng có m i quan h Granger d n t i DCPS (thu nh p cao).49 B ng 4.20: K t qu ki nh Granger v i gi thuy t H0: Bi n i= {GROWTH, DCPS, TRADE, GOV, INF} khơng có m i quan h Granger d n t i GDS (thu nh p cao) 50 B ng 4.21: Sai s d VAR v ng kinh t mơ hình 50 B ng 4.22: Sai s d ng kinh t mô hình VAR vùng Nam Á 51 B ng 4.23: Sai s d ng kinh t mơ hình VAR nhóm thu nh p cao 52 B ng 4.24: K t qu c d a t t c vùng nhóm thu nh p 53 19 Greenwood, J., & Jovanovic, B (1990) Financial development, growth, and the distribution of income Journal of Political Economy, 98, 1076 1107 20 Gurley, J., & Shaw, E (1967) Financial structure and economic development Economic Development and Cultural Change, 15, 257-268 21 Haber, Stephen (1991) Industrial Concentration and the Capital Markets: A Comparative Study of Brazil, Mexico, and the United States, 1830-1930 The Journal of Economic History, 51(3): 559-580 22 Haber, Stephen (2004) Why Institutions Matter: Banking and Economic Growth in Mexico Stanford Center for International Development working paper 23 Haber, Stephen, Armando Razo, and Noel Maurer (2003) The Politics of Property Rights: Political Instability, Credible Commitments, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1876-1929 Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 24.Habibullah, MS & Eng, Y (2006) Does financial development cause economic growth? 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A Causal Evidence from South Africa Savings and Development, 28(1), 4762 42 Nicholas M.Odhiambo (2005) Financial development and economic growth in Tanzania: A dynamic causality test African Finance Journal, 7(1): 1-17 43 Nicholas M.Odhiambo (2008) Financial depth, savings and economic growth in Kenya: A dynamic causal linkage Economic Modeling, 25,704-713 44 Odekun (1996) Alternative econometric approaches for analyzing the role of the financial sector in economic growth: Time-series evidence from LDCs, Journal of Development Economics, 50(1): 119-135 45 Pagano, M (1993) Financial markets and growth: An overview European Economic Review, 37, 613 622 46 Patrick, H T (1966) Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14, 174 189 47 Pesaran, H., & Shin, Y (1998) Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate regression Economics Letters, 58, 17 29 48 Rajan and Zingales (2003) The Great Reversals: the Politics of Financial Development in the Twentieth Century Journal of Financial Economics, volume 69:1, pp.559-586 49 Saint-PauL, G (1992) Technological choice, financial markets and economic development European Economic Review, 36: 763-781 50 Shaw, E S (1973) Financial deepening in economic development New York: Oxford University Press 51 Sims, C (1980) Macroeconomics and reality Econometrica, 48, 48 Toda, H Y., & Yamamoto, T (1995) Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225 250 52 Spears, A (1992) The role of financial intermediation in economic growth in SubSaharan Africa Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 13(3), 361 380 53 Thornton, J (1996) Financial deepening and economic growth in developing economies Applied Economics Letters, 3(4): 243-246 54 Xu, Xinpeng (2000) International trade and environmental policy: how effective is eco-dumping? Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol 17(1), pages 71-90, January 55 Waqabaca, Caroline (2004) Financial Development and Economic Growth in Fiji Economics Department, Reserve Bank of Fiji 56 Wood A (1993) Financial Development and Economic Growth in Barbados: Causal Evidence Savings and Development, 17(4), 379-390 57 www.kikiko.wordpress.com Ph l c Ph l c 1: Danh sách 26 qu S th t c chia theo thu nh p khu v c Nam Á Nhóm thu nh p cao Cambodia Bangladesh Australia China Bhutan Brunei Darussalam Fiji India Hong Kong SAR, China Indonesia Nepal Japan Lao PDR Pakistan Korea, Rep Mongolia Sri Lanka Macao SAR, China Papua New Guinea Philippines Solomon Islands 10 Thailand 11 Tonga 12 Vanuatu 13 Vietnam Singapore Ph l c 2: K t qu tr Coefficient C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C(5) C(6) C(7) C(8) C(9) C(10) C(11) C(12) C(13) C(14) C(15) C(16) C(17) C(18) C(19) C(20) C(21) C(22) C(23) C(24) C(25) C(26) C(27) C(28) C(29) C(30) C(31) C(32) C(33) C(34) C(35) C(36) C(37) C(38) C(39) C(40) Std Error t-Statistic Prob 0.194588 -0.067713 -0.007880 0.040647 -0.008331 -0.018612 -0.021011 0.044968 0.002394 -0.033748 0.015987 0.004955 0.052559 0.040487 0.007312 0.006973 -0.018282 -0.014532 -0.136125 0.054478 0.001008 -0.011354 0.032475 -0.006536 0.008744 -0.038868 -0.002119 -0.020523 -0.000127 0.025156 -0.219215 0.030787 0.900058 0.017673 -0.181408 0.008555 0.121643 -0.223129 -0.085705 0.016001 0.055416 0.027120 0.009836 0.036105 0.026807 0.025359 0.056749 0.039556 0.011144 0.052882 0.036134 0.027651 0.056222 0.055037 0.011677 0.055048 0.036042 0.026934 0.028422 0.065264 0.010719 0.051636 0.035867 0.026514 0.016388 0.043498 0.009854 0.035031 0.026012 0.022454 0.101805 0.193415 0.094655 0.034328 0.126016 0.093562 0.088508 0.198068 0.138060 0.038896 3.511400 -2.496810 -0.801206 1.125776 -0.310766 -0.733964 -0.370245 1.136832 0.214785 -0.638176 0.442440 0.179209 0.934841 0.735636 0.626201 0.126675 -0.507238 -0.539558 -4.789384 0.834737 0.094043 -0.219879 0.905419 -0.246492 0.533579 -0.893547 -0.214996 -0.585848 -0.004869 1.120358 -2.153288 0.159176 9.508855 0.514823 -1.439558 0.091442 1.374376 -1.126526 -0.620786 0.411374 0.0005 0.0126 0.4231 0.2604 0.7560 0.4631 0.7112 0.2558 0.8300 0.5234 0.6582 0.8578 0.3500 0.4621 0.5313 0.8992 0.6121 0.5896 0.0000 0.4040 0.9251 0.8260 0.3654 0.8053 0.5937 0.3717 0.8298 0.5581 0.9961 0.2627 0.0314 0.8735 0.0000 0.6067 0.1502 0.9272 0.1695 0.2601 0.5348 0.6809 C(41) C(42) C(43) C(44) C(45) C(46) C(47) C(48) C(49) C(50) C(51) C(52) C(53) C(54) C(55) C(56) C(57) C(58) C(59) C(60) C(61) C(62) C(63) C(64) C(65) C(66) C(67) C(68) C(69) C(70) C(71) C(72) C(73) C(74) C(75) C(76) C(77) C(78) C(79) C(80) C(81) C(82) C(83) C(84) C(85) C(86) C(87) C(88) 0.183412 0.090460 -0.102558 0.267710 -0.123690 0.048465 0.029303 -0.170339 0.187454 -0.172299 0.095985 -0.035688 -0.267061 0.026980 -0.357757 -0.068175 0.084108 -0.033034 0.174220 -0.007258 0.095710 1.784507 -0.306319 -0.041928 0.606326 -0.541896 0.525879 0.095662 -0.553664 0.710923 0.263385 0.804143 -0.504303 0.028744 1.183080 -1.010856 0.178577 1.685787 -0.064032 0.137351 0.016109 -0.294789 0.141072 -1.957470 -0.233409 -0.145910 0.014764 0.433039 0.184572 0.126117 0.096507 0.196228 0.192093 0.040754 0.192130 0.125796 0.094005 0.099200 0.227785 0.037413 0.180221 0.125185 0.092541 0.057199 0.151818 0.034392 0.122266 0.090789 0.078369 0.355322 0.330975 0.161975 0.058743 0.215642 0.160105 0.151456 0.338938 0.236250 0.066559 0.315842 0.215813 0.165145 0.335788 0.328713 0.069739 0.328777 0.215264 0.160863 0.169753 0.389790 0.064021 0.308398 0.214219 0.158357 0.097880 0.259794 0.993716 0.717271 -1.062695 1.364281 -0.643907 1.189197 0.152516 -1.354091 1.994080 -1.736874 0.421382 -0.953903 -1.481852 0.215521 -3.865951 -1.191887 0.554002 -0.960523 1.424929 -0.079940 1.221266 5.022227 -0.925506 -0.258856 10.32165 -2.512949 3.284585 0.631613 -1.633526 3.009197 3.957162 2.546028 -2.336758 0.174054 3.523289 -3.075196 2.560638 5.127455 -0.297460 0.853838 0.094895 -0.756278 2.203525 -6.347224 -1.089586 -0.921399 0.150838 1.666854 0.3205 0.4733 0.2881 0.1727 0.5197 0.2345 0.8788 0.1759 0.0463 0.0826 0.6735 0.3403 0.1386 0.8294 0.0001 0.2335 0.5797 0.3369 0.1544 0.9363 0.2222 0.0000 0.3548 0.7958 0.0000 0.0121 0.0010 0.5277 0.1025 0.0027 0.0001 0.0110 0.0196 0.8618 0.0004 0.0021 0.0105 0.0000 0.7662 0.3933 0.9244 0.4496 0.0277 0.0000 0.2761 0.3570 0.8801 0.0957 C(89) C(90) C(91) C(92) C(93) C(94) C(95) C(96) C(97) C(98) C(99) C(100) C(101) C(102) C(103) C(104) C(105) C(106) C(107) C(108) C(109) C(110) C(111) C(112) C(113) C(114) C(115) C(116) C(117) C(118) C(119) C(120) C(121) C(122) C(123) C(124) C(125) C(126) C(127) C(128) C(129) C(130) C(131) C(132) C(133) C(134) C(135) C(136) -0.270895 0.170080 0.448805 0.053409 -1.163559 -0.175731 0.346280 0.067807 0.767637 0.023317 0.034811 -0.172124 -0.245105 -0.022481 -0.024960 0.001496 -0.038119 0.421341 0.021407 0.000238 0.112912 -0.081713 0.235584 0.032156 -0.048217 0.035079 -0.156410 0.041452 -0.302805 -0.040700 -0.049163 -0.076595 0.090808 -0.012929 0.098015 1.588266 -0.268450 0.132657 -0.102293 -0.033792 0.980904 -0.037813 -0.290357 -0.278364 0.065876 -0.061523 0.011816 -0.022490 0.058852 0.209224 0.155361 0.134107 0.608033 0.221387 0.108344 0.039293 0.144241 0.107093 0.101308 0.226714 0.158026 0.044521 0.211265 0.144356 0.110464 0.224607 0.219874 0.046648 0.219917 0.143989 0.107600 0.113547 0.260728 0.042823 0.206285 0.143289 0.105924 0.065472 0.173775 0.039366 0.139948 0.103920 0.089703 0.406710 0.188333 0.092168 0.033426 0.122705 0.091104 0.086182 0.192864 0.134432 0.037874 0.179722 0.122803 0.093972 -4.602994 0.812911 2.888796 0.398257 -1.913645 -0.793774 3.196119 1.725670 5.321894 0.217722 0.343612 -0.759212 -1.551038 -0.504946 -0.118147 0.010364 -0.345076 1.875905 0.097361 0.005108 0.513432 -0.567497 2.189432 0.283196 -0.184933 0.819150 -0.758220 0.289291 -2.858700 -0.621643 -0.282911 -1.945721 0.648868 -0.124411 1.092659 3.905160 -1.425400 1.439304 -3.060256 -0.275392 10.76687 -0.438756 -1.505500 -2.070668 1.739346 -0.342322 0.096220 -0.239325 0.0000 0.4164 0.0039 0.6905 0.0558 0.4274 0.0014 0.0846 0.0000 0.8277 0.7312 0.4478 0.1211 0.6137 0.9060 0.9917 0.7301 0.0608 0.9225 0.9959 0.6077 0.5705 0.0287 0.7771 0.8533 0.4128 0.4484 0.7724 0.0043 0.5343 0.7773 0.0519 0.5165 0.9010 0.2747 0.0001 0.1542 0.1502 0.0022 0.7830 0.0000 0.6609 0.1324 0.0385 0.0822 0.7322 0.9234 0.8109 C(137) C(138) C(139) C(140) C(141) C(142) C(143) C(144) C(145) C(146) C(147) C(148) C(149) C(150) C(151) C(152) C(153) C(154) C(155) C(156) C(157) C(158) C(159) C(160) C(161) C(162) C(163) C(164) C(165) C(166) C(167) C(168) C(169) C(170) C(171) C(172) C(173) C(174) C(175) C(176) C(177) C(178) C(179) C(180) C(181) C(182) C(183) C(184) 0.276948 0.128862 0.013763 0.188997 -0.132498 0.150530 0.235329 -0.073241 -0.002933 0.021929 0.028763 -0.206395 -0.120494 0.057593 0.002892 -0.054942 -0.002021 0.014019 0.779401 -0.490046 -0.051994 -0.018631 0.054673 -0.070767 0.444817 0.383377 0.033996 0.009182 -0.097174 0.018904 0.037357 -0.042442 0.398017 -0.012199 0.079586 0.081400 0.207964 -0.078545 -0.392763 0.006858 -0.001506 -0.020414 -0.085557 0.038557 0.050055 0.013848 -0.007248 -0.062678 0.191072 0.187046 0.039683 0.187082 0.122490 0.091535 0.096594 0.221800 0.036430 0.175486 0.121896 0.090109 0.055696 0.147829 0.033488 0.119053 0.088404 0.076310 0.345986 0.126891 0.062099 0.022521 0.082674 0.061382 0.058066 0.129944 0.090575 0.025518 0.121090 0.082740 0.063314 0.128737 0.126024 0.026737 0.126049 0.082529 0.061673 0.065081 0.149440 0.024545 0.118236 0.082129 0.060712 0.037526 0.099602 0.022563 0.080214 0.059563 1.449442 0.688932 0.346819 1.010234 -1.081703 1.644500 2.436274 -0.330210 -0.080521 0.124963 0.235966 -2.290503 -2.163412 0.389591 0.086345 -0.461494 -0.022863 0.183715 2.252694 -3.861932 -0.837273 -0.827279 0.661306 -1.152893 7.660515 2.950319 0.375336 0.359831 -0.802492 0.228480 0.590019 -0.329677 3.158260 -0.456268 0.631391 0.986315 3.372061 -1.206869 -2.628229 0.279423 -0.012739 -0.248568 -1.409223 1.027485 0.502555 0.613745 -0.090356 -1.052287 0.1474 0.4910 0.7288 0.3125 0.2795 0.1003 0.0149 0.7413 0.9358 0.9006 0.8135 0.0221 0.0306 0.6969 0.9312 0.6445 0.9818 0.8543 0.0244 0.0001 0.4026 0.4082 0.5085 0.2491 0.0000 0.0032 0.7075 0.7190 0.4224 0.8193 0.5553 0.7417 0.0016 0.6483 0.5279 0.3241 0.0008 0.2277 0.0087 0.7800 0.9898 0.8037 0.1590 0.3043 0.6153 0.5395 0.9280 0.2928 C(185) C(186) 0.054718 0.413798 Determinant residual covariance 0.051415 0.233112 0.031885 1.064239 1.775104 0.2874 0.0761 Ph l c 3: K t qu tr - Nam Á Coefficient C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C(5) C(6) C(7) C(8) C(9) C(10) C(11) C(12) C(13) C(14) C(15) C(16) C(17) C(18) C(19) C(20) C(21) C(22) C(23) C(24) C(25) C(26) C(27) C(28) C(29) C(30) C(31) C(32) C(33) C(34) C(35) C(36) C(37) C(38) C(39) C(40) C(41) C(42) Std Error t-Statistic Prob 0.038335 -0.000750 0.010647 0.011446 0.022719 -0.027996 0.011370 0.005970 -0.008802 0.001206 0.006626 -0.004922 -0.287994 -0.794593 1.147884 0.499863 -2.067748 0.067320 -0.018643 -0.179290 -0.437972 -0.173893 2.120869 -0.515296 -0.130125 2.725008 -1.623075 0.113538 0.478111 -0.750528 0.171876 -0.115520 -0.110414 -0.333797 0.470971 0.781528 -0.346809 -0.045548 2.984631 -0.697417 0.339771 0.544310 0.082224 0.038119 0.008493 0.062330 0.057027 0.013921 0.012655 0.036913 0.016216 0.061663 0.056705 0.012413 0.063589 1.087717 0.504271 0.112350 0.824551 0.754394 0.184153 0.167415 0.488317 0.214516 0.815723 0.750138 0.164206 0.841206 1.159714 0.537649 0.119787 0.879129 0.804328 0.196342 0.178496 0.520639 0.228715 0.869717 0.799790 0.175074 0.896886 1.023228 0.474373 0.105689 0.466229 -0.019672 1.253682 0.183634 0.398396 -2.011103 0.898456 0.161738 -0.542808 0.019555 0.116851 -0.396544 -4.528989 -0.730515 2.276325 4.449150 -2.507725 0.089237 -0.101236 -1.070933 -0.896901 -0.810626 2.599985 -0.686935 -0.792451 3.239407 -1.399548 0.211175 3.991351 -0.853717 0.213689 -0.588360 -0.618578 -0.641128 2.059201 0.898601 -0.433625 -0.260164 3.327772 -0.681585 0.716253 5.150098 0.6412 0.9843 0.2103 0.8543 0.6904 0.0446 0.3692 0.8715 0.5874 0.9844 0.9070 0.6918 0.0000 0.4653 0.0231 0.0000 0.0123 0.9289 0.9194 0.2845 0.3700 0.4178 0.0095 0.4923 0.4283 0.0012 0.1620 0.8328 0.0001 0.3935 0.8308 0.5564 0.5364 0.5216 0.0398 0.3691 0.6647 0.7948 0.0009 0.4957 0.4740 0.0000 C(43) C(44) C(45) C(46) C(47) C(48) C(49) C(50) C(51) C(52) C(53) C(54) C(55) C(56) C(57) C(58) C(59) C(60) C(61) C(62) C(63) C(64) C(65) C(66) C(67) C(68) C(69) C(70) C(71) C(72) C(73) C(74) C(75) C(76) C(77) C(78) -0.968861 0.087909 -0.056941 -0.160910 -0.574007 -0.279318 1.930030 -0.439723 -0.142697 2.901210 -0.759497 0.335084 0.559722 -1.694934 1.076086 -0.037431 -0.137502 -0.556165 -0.312016 1.712623 -0.464660 -0.163265 2.671682 0.440515 -0.049041 -0.031494 -0.041896 0.521456 0.420533 0.017674 0.023601 -0.056779 0.060523 -0.506716 0.058295 1.589879 Determinant residual covariance 0.775665 0.709667 0.173235 0.157489 0.459366 0.201798 0.767360 0.705663 0.154470 0.791332 1.029470 0.477267 0.106334 0.780397 0.713997 0.174292 0.158450 0.462168 0.203029 0.772042 0.709968 0.155412 0.796160 0.455256 0.211059 0.047023 0.345110 0.315746 0.077076 0.070070 0.204382 0.089784 0.341415 0.313965 0.068727 0.352080 2.46E-07 -1.249072 0.123873 -0.328695 -1.021722 -1.249564 -1.384149 2.515155 -0.623134 -0.923782 3.666238 -0.737755 0.702088 5.263806 -2.171886 1.507131 -0.214762 -0.867795 -1.203381 -1.536804 2.218303 -0.654479 -1.050530 3.355711 0.967620 -0.232356 -0.669743 -0.121400 1.651504 5.456092 0.252234 0.115473 -0.632397 0.177270 -1.613928 0.848207 4.515669 0.2120 0.9014 0.7425 0.3072 0.2118 0.1667 0.0121 0.5334 0.3558 0.0003 0.4609 0.4828 0.0000 0.0301 0.1321 0.8300 0.3857 0.2291 0.1247 0.0268 0.5130 0.2938 0.0008 0.3335 0.8163 0.5032 0.9034 0.0990 0.0000 0.8009 0.9081 0.5273 0.8593 0.1069 0.3965 0.0000 Ph l c 4: K t qu tr - nhóm thu nh p cao Coefficient C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C(5) C(6) C(7) C(8) C(9) C(10) C(11) C(12) C(13) C(14) C(15) C(16) C(17) C(18) C(19) C(20) C(21) C(22) C(23) C(24) C(25) C(26) C(27) C(28) C(29) C(30) C(31) C(32) C(33) C(34) C(35) C(36) C(37) C(38) C(39) C(40) Std Error t-Statistic Prob 0.160857 0.000402 0.015004 -0.018964 -0.227391 -0.022059 0.008278 0.000606 -0.000608 0.014552 0.200263 0.022380 0.155537 -1.260109 0.819899 -0.142768 -0.104209 1.357664 -0.142722 -0.138223 0.001012 0.272020 0.026627 -1.662790 0.017570 3.399212 -0.343502 0.019958 0.619731 0.052908 1.219252 -0.282191 -0.146772 -0.045417 0.039797 -0.099301 -1.385086 0.065214 4.387187 -0.859795 0.078716 0.008176 0.013960 0.016757 0.110538 0.011845 0.007412 0.007740 0.016119 0.013282 0.105686 0.011830 0.115347 0.946514 0.098317 0.167863 0.201491 1.329156 0.142436 0.089120 0.093065 0.193829 0.159712 1.270825 0.142248 1.386982 0.722854 0.075084 0.128197 0.153879 1.015077 0.108778 0.068061 0.071074 0.148027 0.121972 0.970529 0.108635 1.059239 0.717769 2.043521 0.049193 1.074785 -1.131710 -2.057138 -1.862243 1.116961 0.078267 -0.037720 1.095578 1.894881 1.891859 1.348435 -1.331315 8.339372 -0.850506 -0.517190 1.021448 -1.002007 -1.550966 0.010872 1.403403 0.166716 -1.308434 0.123513 2.450797 -0.475202 0.265809 4.834216 0.343827 1.201142 -2.594190 -2.156468 -0.639014 0.268851 -0.814124 -1.427145 0.600304 4.141829 -1.197870 0.0412 0.9608 0.2827 0.2580 0.0399 0.0628 0.2643 0.9376 0.9699 0.2735 0.0584 0.0588 0.1778 0.1834 0.0000 0.3952 0.6051 0.3073 0.3166 0.1212 0.9913 0.1608 0.8676 0.1910 0.9017 0.0144 0.6347 0.7904 0.0000 0.7310 0.2300 0.0096 0.0313 0.5230 0.7881 0.4158 0.1538 0.5484 0.0000 0.2312 C(41) C(42) C(43) C(44) C(45) C(46) C(47) C(48) C(49) C(50) C(51) C(52) C(53) C(54) C(55) C(56) C(57) C(58) C(59) C(60) C(61) C(62) C(63) C(64) C(65) C(66) C(67) C(68) C(69) C(70) C(71) C(72) C(73) C(74) C(75) C(76) C(77) C(78) -0.018614 1.061693 0.991587 1.125834 -0.337379 -0.095229 -0.011567 -1.049541 -0.103110 -1.396648 0.106444 3.136442 -1.190082 -0.010077 -0.129513 -0.065531 1.782637 -0.184351 -0.093368 -0.030052 0.212777 -0.062241 -1.154456 0.008341 3.499088 0.919030 0.014522 0.048915 -0.082678 -0.989115 0.630277 -0.053200 -0.035071 0.005948 0.031596 0.699310 0.061678 2.565315 Determinant residual covariance 0.074556 0.127295 0.152796 1.007938 0.108013 0.067583 0.070574 0.146986 0.121114 0.963703 0.107871 1.051789 0.808103 0.083940 0.143316 0.172026 1.134790 0.121607 0.076088 0.079456 0.165484 0.136357 1.084988 0.121447 1.184160 0.466074 0.048412 0.082657 0.099216 0.654491 0.070137 0.043884 0.045826 0.095443 0.078644 0.625768 0.070045 0.682965 3.53E-05 -0.249660 8.340404 6.489601 1.116967 -3.123502 -1.409075 -0.163905 -7.140426 -0.851348 -1.449251 0.986775 2.982007 -1.472686 -0.120050 -0.903692 -0.380937 1.570895 -1.515959 -1.227106 -0.378227 1.285782 -0.456457 -1.064027 0.068680 2.954912 1.971854 0.299962 0.591779 -0.833313 -1.511274 8.986371 -1.212281 -0.765303 0.062317 0.401757 1.117523 0.880555 3.756142 0.8029 0.0000 0.0000 0.2643 0.0018 0.1591 0.8698 0.0000 0.3948 0.1476 0.3240 0.0029 0.1411 0.9045 0.3664 0.7033 0.1165 0.1298 0.2201 0.7053 0.1988 0.6482 0.2876 0.9453 0.0032 0.0489 0.7643 0.5541 0.4049 0.1310 0.0000 0.2257 0.4443 0.9503 0.6879 0.2640 0.3788 0.0002 ... gian chính, ch m nh ng d án a tài tr u c a phát tri n tài tài s n m i có th ti p c su t sinh l n kinh t phát tri n i có th tham gia vào h th trang thái phát tri hi u qu , m i quy n l i sâu tài. .. T VÀ T NG QUAN CÁC NGHIÊN C U TR 2.1 Khung lý thuy t ng kinh t 2.1.2 Phát tri n tài 11 2.1.3 M i quan h gi a phát tri ng kinh t 13 2.1.3.1 Phát. .. t quan thu n 2.2 Các nghiên c u t c m i quan h phát tri ng kinh t u nghiên c m i quan h gi a s phát tri n tài ng kinh t Tuy nhiên k t qu l i s tranh cãi v v ng c a m i quan h nhân qu gi a s phát