<^':'S^x> •;> • CV THl/aNG MAI, DAU TLT VA VIEN TRQ CUA CHAU PHI DU'ai TAC DONG CUA KHUNG HOANG TOAN CAU Nguyen Van Dan* Nguyen Ngpc Tri** 1. ThiTdng mai chau Phi trong khung hoang tai chinh toan cau a. Dong thai chung ciia thuang mgi chau Phi nam 2009' Trong nam 2009, thugng mai the gioi dat toe do tang truomg -11,9%, mire sut giam dau tien ke tir nam 1982 va la mire sut giam Ign nhat ke tir giira thap ky 1940. Dieu nay da tac dgng true tiep den boat dgng thuong mai cua chau Phi trong nam 2009. Mac dii chi chiem duofi 2% tong kim ngach thuong mai toan cau, nhung nhieu nen kinh te chau Phi phu thugc vao xuat khau hang hoa va chiu nhirng tac dgng tieu cue tir sir sut giam gia ea quoc te. Theo danh gia cua IMF, toe do tang truofng thugng mai cua chau Phi la - 17,1% vao nam 2009 sau khi tang truong g mire 11,3% vao nam 2008. Day la khu vuc CO sir sut giam toe do tang truofng thugng mai cao thir ba trong nhgm nuofC dang phat Pho giao sir, Tien si, Hpc vien Tai chinh " Vi^n Ngliien ciru Chau Phi va Trung Dong trien va mofi noi, sau khu vuc chau A (- 20,5%) va Trung Dong (-18,9%). Trong boat dgng xuat khau, nam 2009 theo danh gia cua AfDB kim ngach xuat khau cua chau Phi chi dat khoang 250 ty USD, thap hgn gan 1/3 so voi mire du bao nam 2008. Gia ca hang hoa giam manh tac dgng ca den nugc xuat khau dau mo va nuoc khong xuat khau dau mo. Nigeria va Angola bi mat khoang 76,8 ty USD vao nam 2009 do sut giam thu nhap tir xuat khau dau mo. Zambia va Cong hoa dan chu Congo bi mat khoang 6 ty USD do gia khoang san the gioi giam silt. Uganda trong thang 3 nam 2009 eiang chi xuat khau ca phe Robuta dat 23,9 ty USD, giam toi 34% so voi mire 36,3 ty USD cua ciing ky nam ngoai. Xet trong co cau GDP, kim ngach thuong mai cua nhieu nuofc chau Phi ciing giam nghiem trgng. Tai cac nuac xuat khau dau mo, kim ngach xuat khau trong GDP giam tir 53,1% nam 2008 xuong 39,9% nam 2009. 2« Tap chi nghien cim CHAU PHI & TRUING DdiNG so 06 (58) thang 06/2010 Thu&ng mai, dau tu" va vien tra Nguyen Van Dan-Nguyen Ngpc Tri Tai cac nuoc eo thu nhap trung binh, kim ngach xuat khau giam tir 36,9% GDP nam 2008 xuong 28,2% GDP nam 2009. Tai cac nuoc CO thu nhap thap, mire giam la tir 24,2% GDP xuong con 21,8% GDP tuong ung. Tai cac nuoc hay bi ton thuang, mire giam la tir 42,9% (2008) xuong 36% GDP (2009). Ciing voi hoat dgng xuat khau, kim ngach nhap khau trong GDP cua nhieu nuoc Bang 1. Xuat nhap khau hang hoa va ciing CO sir sut giam, cu the la: cac nuoc xuat khau dau mo giam tir 33,3% GDP xuong con 33,2% GDP; cac nuoc c6 thu nhap trung binh giam tir 40,9% GDP xuong con 32,1% GDP; cac nuofc eo thu nhap thap giam tir 40,6% GDP xuong eon 37,3% GDP, tai cac nuoc hay bj ton thuang giam tir 47,7% GDP xuong con 41% GDP tuong irng voi hai nam 2008-2009. dich vu cua mot so nu'O'C chau Phi (% GDP) Nuac/nhom nuoc Nhom nu'O'C xuat khau dau mo + Angola + Nigeria Nhom nu'O'C thu nhap trung binh + Mauritius + Nam Phi Nhom nugc thu nhap thap + Ethiopia + Uganda Nhom nu'O'C de bj ton thu-ong -i-Cote divoice +Liberia Xuatk 2008 53,1 68,0 41,6 36,9 56,0 35,4 24,2 11,6 2j^-7 42,9 61,1 91,0 lau trong GDP 2009 39,9 49,9 32,0 28,2 49,0 26,6 21,8 9,4 20,7 36,0 42,7 74,4 2010 44,5 53,5 36,8 29,1 48,9 27,6 22,0 10,9 19,8 36,1 43,9 76,8 Nhap khau trong GDP 2008 33,3 50,8 24,7 40,9 69,8 38,5 40,6 31,4 31,7 47,7 38,8 230,2 2009 2010 33,2 i 32,0 40,9 1 43,3 27,9 32,1 63,1 28,8 37,3 26,7 32,5 41,0 34,0 231,7 25,0 34,5 63,0 31,2 37,0 30,9 31,1 42,8 35,0 241,5 Ngudn: IMF, Regional Economic Outlook- Sub Xet ve doi tac thuong mai, hau bet xuat nhap khau hang boa cua chau Phi la sang cac nuoc cong nghiep phat trien va trong nam 2009 xuat khau hang hoa eua chau Phi bi anh huong nang ne do cau giam manh tir nhom nuac phat trien. Trong quan he thuong mai vol My, gia tri kim ngach xuat nhap khau My - chau Phi trong 2 nam 2007-2008 tang o mire 29%, nhung trong 6 thang dau nam 2009 xuat khau cua chau Phi sang My da giam toi 57% so voi eiing ky nam 2008. Kim ngach xuat khau cua chau Phi sang My giam mgt phan la do gia dau lua va nguyen lieu the gioi giam manh, trong khi My nhap khau Saharan Africa, 10/2009. toi 80% dau mo va nhien lieu cua chau Phi, va 92% nhap khau eua My la thong qua Dao luat CO hgi va phat trien (AGOA). Trong nira dau nam 2009, thuang mai My - Phi thong qua AGOA giam toi 63% so voi ciing ky nam 2008. Trong quan he thuong mai voi Trung Quoc, vao nam 2007 Trung Quoc chiem 13% kim ngach xuat khau va 10% kim ngach nhap khau ciia chau Phi. Trien vgng thuong mai chau Phi - Trung Quoc la rat sang sua khi Trung Quoc dang noi len la mgt doi tac quan trgng a chau Phi. Tuy nhien trong nam 2009, toe do tang truong kinh te ciia Trung Quoc giam sut khien mire cau cac Tap chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRUING DOING so 06 (58) thang 06/2010 Nguyen Van Dan-Nguyen Ngoc Trf ThWcfng mai, dau tWva vien tra dau vao san xuat tir chau Phi nhu dau mo, dong, thiec giam manh. Xet ve hoat dgng thuong mai cua tirng nugc chau Phi, nam 2009 cung xuat hien nhieu diem sang trong birc tranh thuong m^i cua chau Phi. Doi vgi nhihig nuoc c6 su cai thien quan trgng ve co sg h^ tang va phat trien nguon lire, boat dgng thugng m^i van tiep tuc soi dgng bat chap khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau. Burkina Faso la mgt vi dy dien hinh. Trong nam 2009 xuat khau cua Burkia Faso dugc mo rgng nhanh chong do su phyc hoi cua nganh san xuat bong, ket hgp vgi viec tang san lugng khai thac va xuat khau vang 6 4 mo vang moi phat hien dugc da dan tgi ty trgng xuat khau hang hoa va dich vu cua Burkina Faso tang tir 9,3% GDP len 9,5% GDP. Tai Liberia, viec khoi phyc l^i cac nganh san xuat va xuat khau nhien lieu, thiec, cao su, dau eg cung khien xuat khau nam 2009 bung no. Tang truong xuat khau o Malawi ciing dat toe dg cao do Quang, sat thep, da quy, vang \ i-m Nhien lieu ^^ chinh phu mo rgng viec khai thac uranium o Kayelekera nam 2009. b. Nguyen nhan dan den hoat dong thuang mgi ciia chau Phi tri tre trong nam 2009 * Nguyen nhan ben ngoai: Cugc khiing hoang kinh te toan cau la nguyen nhan chii yeu dan den hoat dgng thuong mai cua chau Phi trong nam 2009 kem soi dgng. Truac hit, gia ca hang hoa the gioi giam m^h khien cac mat hang xuat khau chii yeu cua chau Phi la dau mo, nhien lieu, khoang san deu bi giam gia tri xuat khau. Hinh 1. cho thay tat ca cac loai gia ca cua cac hang hoa co trong danh muc xuat khau cua chau Phi deu giam rat manh trong nam 2009, cy the la gia dau mo giam toi 68,7% so voi giai doan dinh diem ciia nam 2008, gia nhien lieu giam toi 55,6%, gia hang hoa phi nhien lieu giam 35,5%i, gia kim loai giam 49,6%», nguyen lieu nong nghiep giam 33%. Hang hoa so che trir nhien lieu, quang, sat thep, da quy, vang Hang hoa che tao Hinh 1. Co* cau xuat khau hang hoa cua chau Phi ra the giffi Ngudn: UNCTAD, 2008. m Tap chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRUING DOING so 06 (58) thang 06/2010 Thifdng mai, dau tw va vien trcf Nguyen VSn Dan-Nguyen Ngoc Trf 470 420 370 320 270 220 170 120 70 {IndeK 2003-100) Dau lua |*t Gia kim loai a chau Phi c$n Sahara Dubao cua WEO f^^tyy ^ I A yw'i f^K-^WjM^AWWV^X^W'/XJWSf <<• <(¥«*«! Gia ca hang hoa khac a chau Phi c^n Sahara I I \ 2003 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 Hinh 2. Xu htfong gia ca the gioi, giai doan 2003-2010 Ngudn: S6 lieu tir IMF and UN. Theo Mark Plant, The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Sub Saharan Africa, May 2009. Ghi chii: Nhung hang hoa khac ciia chau Phi cdn Sahara bao gSm: Co ca, ca phe, che, duang, gS Thir hai, cau cua the gioi, dac biet la cua cac nuoc phat trien doi voi hang hoa chau Phi trong nam 2009 bj giam sut. Do khung hoang kinh te, boat dgng thuomg mai cua cac nugc phat trien bi co hep lai. Toe dg tang truomg nh^p khau cua cac nen kinh te cong nghiep phat trien trong nam 2009 dat - 14,9%, trong khi nam 2008 dat 0% va nam 2007 tang 4,2%. Nh^p khau cua cac nuoc phat trien giam manh da anh huong tieu eye den boat dgng xuat khau ciia cac nuoc chau Phi. * Neuven nhan ben trong: Thir nhdt, lien ket khu vuc yeu kem a chau Phi da khong giup dugc cac nugc nay khi CO nhijmg tac dgng bat Igi tir moi truong ben ngoai. Cugc khung hoang tai chinh nam 2008-2009 no ra a cac nuoc cong nghiep phat trien, neu nhu cac nen kinh te dang phat trien c6 mire dg lien ket khu vuc chat che thi se ban che dugc nhirng tac dgng tieu cue tir ben ngoai khi cau ve hang boa ciia cac nuoc cong nghiep phat trien sut giam manh. Bang 2 cho thay xuat khau ngi khoi cua khu vuc chau Phi chi chiem 8,7% tong kim ngach xuat khau cua toan khu vuc, trong khi nhap khau ngi khoi chi chiem 9,6%. Con so nay qua thap so vofi mire do lien ket thuong mai ngi khoi cua khu vuc chau A, chau My va chau Au. Tap chi nghien cim CHAU PHI & TRUING DOING so 06 (58) thang 06/2010 Nguyen Van Dan-Nguyen Ngpc Trf Thu'cfng mai, dau tWva vien trcf Bang 2. Xuat nhap khau noi khoi trong tong kim ngach thu'otig mai cua the gigi, giai doan 2004-2006 (%) „ Chau Phi Cac nugc DPT chau My Cac nugc DPT chau A Cac nugc phat trien chau My Cac nugc phat trien chau Au Nhap khau 9,6 20,9 48,1 23,3 68,1 Xuat khau 8,7 18,5 45,5 39,8 71,4 Ngudn: UNCTAD 2008. Thu hai, chi phi giao dich thuong mai o chau Phi con cao hon nhieu so voi cac khu vuc khac tren the gioi, do vay kho nang cao kim ngach thuong mai va ty trgng .thuong mai cua chau Phi tren the gioi. Theo danh gia cua WB nam 2009, cac thu tuc xuat nhap khau eua chau Phi deu c6 chi phi cao hon nhieu so voi cac khu vuc khac. Chang ban de lam cac giay tof lien quan den xuat chau My Latinh chi can 7,1 loai, Trung Dong chi can 6,5 loai. Thofi gian xuat khau cua chau Phi la can 34,7 giof, trong khi chau A - Thai Binh Duong can 23,3 gio, chau My Latinh can 19,7 gio, Trung Dong can 23,3 giof. Chi phi van chuyen 1 container hang hoa xuat khau b chau Phi la 1.878,8 USD, trong khi o chau A ehi la 902,3 USD, My Latinh la 1229,8 USD va Trung Dong la 1024,4 USD. khau, chau Phi can 7,8 loai giay tof trong khi Bang 3. Thii tuc, thoi gian, va chi phi xuat nhap khau tren the gigi nam 2009 OECD Dong A - TBD My Latinh va Caribe Trung-Dong Au Trung Dong Chau Phi So lugng giay tof can thiet de xuat khau 4,5 6,7 6,9 7,1 6,5 7,8 Thori gian xuat khau (ngay) 10,7 23,3 19,7 29,7 23,3 34,7 Chi phi xuat khau (USD/eo ntainer) 1069,1 902,3 1229,8 1649,1 1024,4 1878,8 So lugng giay to can thiet de nhap khau 5,1 7,1 7,4 8,3 7,6 8,8 Thai gian nhap khau (ngay) 11,4 24,5 22,3 31,7 26,7 41,1 Chi phi nhap khau (USD/eo ntainer) 1132,7 948,5 1384,3 1822,2 1204,8 2278,7 Ngudn: World Bank 2009. Thu ba, CO cau xuat khau hang boa cua chau Phi hien nay chu yeu la nguyen lieu, nhien lieu, tai nguyen khoang san, hang boa so che, do vay chau luc nay hay bi tac dgng cua xu buQfng gia ca the gigi. Hang hoa che tao chi chiem 18% tong kim ngach xuat khau cua chau Phi trong nam 2008. Khi hang boa xuat khau khong co gia tri gia tang cao, thuong mai chau Phi eh4c ch4n phai chiu tac dgng tieu cue khi c6 khung hoang tai chinh toan cau. 32 Tap chi nghien cuu OIAU PHI & TRUING DOING so 06 (58) thang 06/2010 Thu'cfng mai, dau tWva vien trcf Nguyen Van Dan-Nguyen Ngpc Tri 2. Dac diem cua dong von FDI vao chau Phi nam 2009 a. Dong thai chung ciia dong von FDI vao chau Phi nam 2009 Theo danh gia cua IMF, nam 2009 chau Phi thu hut duoc khoang 26,4 ty USD von FDI, giam manh so voi con so 41,9 ty USD ciia nam 2008. Con theo so lieu ciia UNCTAD, so von FDI vao chau Phi quy 1 nam 2009 dat 3,422 ty USD va trong ca nam 2009 uoc dat khoang hon 20 ty USD, giam manh so voi nam ngoai. 60 50 40 30 2D 10 o -10 -20 TyUSD "'"i»Si; Bau tu gian tiep — Tong 2004 2005 —I ;IHIIiiilillli.il— M:3 Wsi/^iSSiiiX'Z >oos 2007 2008 2O09 2010 Hinh 3. Dau tu' nugc ngoai tai chau Phi, 2004-2010 Ngudn: IMF, World Economic Outlook, JO/2009. Trai voi dong von FDI, von dau tu gian tiep vao chau Phi trong nam 2009 c6 dau hieu quay tro lai sau khi da sut giam va riit ra khoi chau Phi khoang 20,8 ty USD vao nam 2008. Nam 2009, von dau tu gian tiep vao chau Phi dat khoang 5,2 ty USD. Tinh trong ty le von FDI chay vao cac nen kinh te moi noi va dang phat trien, nam 2009 chau Phi van chi chiem khoang 1% trong tong so von 279 ty USD do vao cac nuoc dang phat trien va moi noi. Ty le nay trong nhieu nam tro lai day van khong dugc cai thien. Chau Phi cho den nay van chua hap dan cac nha dau tu nuoc ngoai boi rat nhieu ly do khac nhau, trong do c6 ly do ve khoang each dia ly, chi phi kinh doanh cao va nhii:ng rui ro trong kinh doanh. Tinh theo khu vuc, Bac Phi chiem toi 27% trong tong von FDI vao chau Phi trong nam 2009 va chau Phi can Sahara chiem khoang 73%. Trong giai doan 2004-2007, Nigeria chiem tofi 34,8% von FDI vao chau Phi, tiep theo la Nam Phi (chiem 15,1%), Ghine Xich dao chiem 10,2%, Tanzania Tap chi nghien cim aiAU PHI & TRUING DOING so 06 (58) thang 06/2010 1^. Nguyen Van Dan-Nguyen Ngpc Tri Thu'cfng mai, dau tu" va vien tra. chiem 3,2%, Congo chiem 2,9% va cac nuoc chau Phi khac chiem 33,8%i von FDI vao chau Phi. Trong quy 1 nam 2009, cac nugc chau Phi tiep nhan vgn FDI lofn nhat vao chau Phi la Ai Cap (1,211 ty USD), tiep do la Nam Phi (1,175 ty USD), Ghana (372 tneu USD), Tunisia (304 tneu USD), Uganda (183 trieu USD), tiep nira la Cape Verde, Gambia, Lesotho, Mauritius, Seychells, Zimbabwe. Bang 4. Cac nugc tiep nhan FDI chu yeu 6" chau Phi, 2008-2009, tinh theo quy (trieu USD) Nu'O'C Cape Verde Ai Cap Gambia Ghana Lesotho Mauritius Seychellses Nam Phi Tunisia Uganda Zimbabwe Tong Ql/2008 73 3482 17 132 54 60 66 5642 659 209 15 10408 Q2/2008 50 1985 17 205 53 70 71 793 714 209 - 4165 Q3/2008 46 1655 15 1361 53 122 168 2879 ^18 211 37 7164 Q4/2008 44 2373 15 422 41 126 59 328 771 159 - 4339 Ql/2009 24 1211 11 372 43 39 44 1175 304 183 15 3422 Ngudn: UNCTAD, FDI/TNC database, www, unctad. org/fdistatistics Xet ve doi tac dau tu, cac nuoc phat trien hien chiem toi 79,6% tong von FDI tich luy vao chau Phi tinh den dau nam 2009, trong khi cac nuoc dang phat trien chi chiem 20,4%. Nhirng nuoc dan dau ve so von FDI vao chau Phi la Anh, My, Phap, Nam Phi, Due, Singapore, Thuy Dien, Na Uy, An Do, Canada, Nhat Ban, Malaysia, Thuy ST, Trung Quoc, Bo Dao Nha, Dan Mach, Han Quoc. Trong nam 2009, nhiJng doi tac dau tu chu yeu vao chau Phi deu giam von FDI ra nuac ngoai, trong do co khu vuc chau Phi do nhirng kho khan kinh te do khung hoang tai chinh toan cau mang lai (Bang 5). Mgt dac diem khac trong dgng thai FDI vao chau Phi la lan song mua ban va sap nhap (M&A) dien ra o chau Phi ngay cang ram rg. Neu nhu trgng giai dgan 2000-2004, chau Phi c6 203 vu mua ban va sap nhap, thi nam 2005-2008 dien ra 201 vu, chiem 28% tong cac vu mua ban va sap nhap tren the gigi va chiem khoang 2\% gia tri M&A toan the gigi. Trong nam 2009, do bi tac dgng cua khiing hoang toan cau, cac vu M&A dien ra g chau Phi it han va cham hon. Tong so cac vu mua ban va sap nhap giam nghiem trgng va mgt so du an M&A da bi hoan thuc hien do khiing hoang. Tinh tir thang 1 den thang 7 nam 2009, gia tri cac vu ban eac cong ty o chau Phi chi dat 3,332 ty USD, thap hgn nhieu sg voi con so 20,901 ty USD cua ca nam 2008, trong khi gia tri mua cac cgng ty Tap chi nghien cim OIAU PHI & TRUING DOING so 06 (58) thang 06/2010 ThWcfng mai, dau tW va vien tra Nguyen Van Dan-Nguyen Ngoc Trf chau Phi tren toan the gigi nira dau nam 2009 chi dat 186 tneu USD, thap hgn nhieu so vgi con so 8,214 ty USD eiia ca nam 2008. Nhirng nugc dien ra M&A Ign nhat trong nam 2009 phai ke den la Ai Cap, Kenya, Nigeria va Nam Phi. Dac biet la g Nigeria, nhirng chien luge cai each ciia ngan hang trung uong Nigeria da dan den su mo rgng nhanh chgng cac ngan hang Nigeria sang cac nugc chau Phi khac nhu Benin, Ghana, Gambia, Cote dTvoice, Liberia, Siera Leon va Togo. Bang 5. Cac vu mua ban va sap nhap g chau Nganh Tong Nganh sg che Khai thac mo, quang va dau Ilia Nganh che bien Go va san pham go San pham khai khoang phi kim loai San phcim kim loai Dich vu Thugng mai Van tai, kho bai va vien thong Tai chinh Dich vu kinh doanh Djch vu y te va xa hgi Phi theo nganh, 2007-2009 (trieu USD) Gia tri ban cac cong ty 6* chau Phi 2007 7906 3837 3837 1367 -1438 831 250 2702 -396 335 2595 91 - ^ 2008 20901 -2055 -2055 15639 - 15496 104 7316 32 1665 5613 -157 152 2009 3332 2430 2430 393 - 145 248 509 - 644 7 -77 5 Gia trj mua cac cong ty chau Phi tren the gioi 2007 9914 5328 5328 810 351 466 55 3776 -267 250 1099 122 2363 2008 8214 -261 -261 1649 1082 339 7 6827 299 -156 7168 12 282 2009 186 -36 -36 82 - <* 44 140 - - 179 -39 - Ngudn: UNCTAD, Cross-border M&A database, Ghi chu: Nam 2009 chi tinh tic thdng 1 din thdng b. Nhung no luc ve chinh sach trong thu hut ddu tu nuac ngoai vao chdu Phi nam 2009 Nam 2009, chinh phu nhieu nugc chau Phi da CO gang day manh nhiing cam ket thuc hien chinh sach cai thien moi truong thu hilt dau tu nuoc ngoai de khac phuc nhirng kho khan do khung hoang kinh te toan cau gay ra. Mgt so nugc chau Phi thuc hien chinh sach thiic day dau tu tu nhan. www, unctad. org/fdistatistics. 7. trong do CO FDI. Burundi thiic day thuc hien Luat dau tu moi duoc ky ket tir nam 2008 voi muc dich hap dan ban nira cac nha dau tu nuoc ngoai. Ai Cap xuc tien thanh lap cac khu cong nghiep tu do. Kenya tiep tuc tu nhan hoa mgt so nganh cong cgng. Mauritius dua Luat canh tranh dugc ky nam 2008 di vao thuc te nham ban che dgc quyen trong kinh doanh. Zambia thuc hien che do thue moi trong nganh cong nghiep khai thac mo. Tap chi nghien cim aiAU PHI & TRUING DOING so 06 (58) thang 06/2010 3S/ Nguyen Van Dan-Nguyin Ngpc Trf Thu'ang mai, dau tWva vien trcf Ciing trong nam 2009, thu tuc dang ky kinh doanh a Rwanda nit ngan xuong con 3 ngay, trong khi nuoc co thu tuc dang ky kinh doanh ruofm ra nhat chau Phi la Guinea phai mat 213 ngay. Ngoai nhirng no luc cai thien moi trugng dau tu trong nuoc, cac nuoc chau Phi con co gang ky ket cac Hiep dinh dau tu song phuong (BITs) voi cac nuoc de tao dieu kien thuan loi thiic day dau tu nuoc ngoai. Theo bao cao cua UNCTAD, trong 6 thang dau nam 2009 eac nude chau Phi da ky 5 BITs, tuy thap hon ciing ky nam 2008 (ca nam 2008 cac nuoc chau Phi ky ket 12 BITs), nhung day la nhirng co gang bet minh eiia cac nuoc trong moi truong the gigi dang bi khung hoang. Tong BITs da duoc ky ket o chau Phi tinh den thang 6 nam 2009 la 720. Nhirng BITs duoc ky ket trong 6 thang dau nam 2009 o chau Phi cu the la nhu sau: Bang 6. BITs ky ket tir thang 1 den thang 6 nam 2009 g chau Phi Nu'O'C ky Burundi - Kenya Ghine Xich dao - Bo Dao Nha Ethiopia - Tay Ban Nha Mozambique - An Do Kenya - Iran Ngay ky 1/4/2009 16/1/2009 17/3/2009 19/2/2009 24/2/2009 Ngudn: UNCTAD, 2009 Duoi hinh thirc ky ket eac Hiep dinh dau tu quoc te (IIAs), trong nam 2009 cac nuoc chau Phi khong ky ket them IIA nao, tuy nhien khu vuc nay dang no luc thuc hien nhirng hiep dinh da ky voi the gioi vao cuoi nam 2008 Hen quan den thuong mai va dau tu. Co the ke den cac IIAs da ky ket vao euoi nam 2008 o chau Phi nhu sau: +) Hiep dinh khung hop tac thuong mai va dau tu giiia My va Cong dong Dong Phi (EAC), ky thang 7 nam 2008, +) Hiep dinh hop tac phat trien, thuong mai va dau tu giiia My va Lien minh Hai quan mien Nam chau Phi (SACU), ky thang 7 nam 2008, +) Hiep dinh doi tac kinh te giiia Cote dTvoice va EU, ky thang 11 nam 2008 Vao thang 3 nam 2009 tai Nam Phi, Hgi nghi cac doi tac thuc hien CAADP lan thir 4 da khai mac, thao luan nhieu van de ve hgp tac phat trien nong nghiep o chau Phi, trong do CO phan keu ggi cac nha dau tu nuoc ngoai dau tu vao nong nghiep chau Phi, dong thofi Hgi nghi da tien hanh dua vao thuc hien Quy cac nha tai trg da phuong cho CAADP. c. Nhirng ton tgi, hgn che ve moi truang thu hilt ddu tu nuac ngoai vao chdu Phi vd trien vong Mac dii CO nhieu eo gang tir phia chinh phu cac nuoc chau Phi trong viec cai thien moi truong dau tu nuofc ngoai, nhung chua the noi moi truong dau tu o chau Phi la mang tinh hap dan. Co rat nhieu ly do dang khien moi truong dau tu o chau Phi chua thuc su thu hilt su chii y cua cac nha dau tu nuoc ngoai. Ben canh nhiing can benh kinh men ehua duoc giai quyet dirt diem cua chau Phi la doi ngheo, dich benh, xung dot ma the gioi thuong hay nhSc den, chau Phi c6 tiem Tap chi nghien cim OIAU PHI & TRUING DOING so 06 (58) thang 06/2010 Thu'ang mai, dau tu" va vien tra Nguyen Van Dan-Nguyen Ngpc Trf an nhieu rui ro va kho khan Hen quan true tiep den cac nha dau tu nuofc ngoai. Do la: Thir nhdt, cac chinh sach, luat le lien quan true tiep den viec thu hut FDI cua nhieu nuoc chau Phi con thieu va khong day du. Nhieu nuoc chau Phi hien nay van ehua ban hanh Luat cong ty, Luat hop dong lao dgng, Luat pha san, Luat bao ve quyen sof hiru tri tue. He thong chinh sach, nhurng uu dai cua nhieu nuoc chau Phi con het sire ruQfm ra, phirc tap. Nhieu nuoc con chua thuc hien cac hiep dinh tranh danh thue hai lan, chua ap dung nhirng co che tinh thue hien dai theo dung chuan quoc te. Ben canh do, chi eo mgt so nganh nhat dinh dugc huong nhirng uu dai dau tu dae biet, chang ban nhu nganh du Hch, khai thac dau khi va khoang san. Nhieu nuoc con ap dung bien phap kiem soat ty le so hiru von co phan cua nguofi nuoc ngoai, chua cho phep hinh thirc 100% von dau tu nuoc ngoai. Dieu nay gay ra nhieu kho khan doi vol nha dau tu nuoc ngoai khi dua ra nhu"ng quyet dinh dau tu vao chau Phi, Thir hai, tham nhung dang tro thanh van de nong hoi o chau Phi, gay trof ngai cho cac nha dau tu nude ngoai. Theo danh gia cua Ngan hang Phat trien chau Phi, tham nhiing dang gay mat mat xap xi 50% doanh thu tir thue va khien cho cac khoan vay no nuoc ngoai tro nen khong hieu qua. Tham nhung trong cac du an xay dung co so ha tang chiem xap xi 70% trong tong so cac vu tham nhung. Uoc tinh hang nam co toi 30 ty USD tien vien tro nuoc ngoai danh cho chau Phi dugc gioi tham nhung gui vao cac ngan hang nuoc ngoai. Cac nha dau tu nuorc ngoai thuang rat nan long khi dau tu vao chau Phi bofi tham nhiing keo theo chi phi dau tu gia tang, thori gian dau tu bi dinh tre va nhirng hau qua kinh te khac doi voi nha dau tu. Thir ba, co so ha tang yeu kem dang lam mat di tinh hap dan cua moi truofng dau tu a chau Phi. Su kem hieu qua cua co so ha tang ciing vofi nguon cung cap nang lugng khong day dii khien ehi phi dau tu tang cao. Chau Phi can Sahara hien chi chiem 3% van tai duong sat cua cac nuoc dang phat trien, nhung chiem tofi 17% dan so va 7% GDP cua nhom nuoc nay. Chi c6 1/5 duong xa duoc trai nhua so voi % o My Latinh va 2/5 o Nam A. Chi co mgt so san bay va cau cang mang tinh chat quoc te a Ai Cap, Cap Verde, Ethiopia, Maroeco, Ghana, Nam Phi va chau Phi chi chiem 4,5% van tai hang khong toan cau trong do ty le tai nan hang khong la 25%. Cac nha dau tu vao chau Phi khong nhiing phai chiu canh co so ha tang yeu kem ma con phai chiu nhirng rao can co che ban bat cir mgt khu vuc nao khac tren the giofi Nhirng nuoc c6 eo so ha tang bi danh gia la toi te nhat hien nay tren the gioi thugc ve Chad, Burundi, Cameroon, Uganda, Burkina Faso, Benin, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania. Thie tu, su giau c6 ve nguon tai nguyen thien nhien cgng vofi su tut hau trong phat trien nguon nhan luc c6 the khien chau Phi nhiem phai can benh Ha Lan ma nhieu nude da tirng gap. He thong giao due d chau Phi hien nay dang d trong tinh trang khiing hoang nghiem trgng. Mae dii mgt so nude nhu Seychelles, Namibia, Nam Phi c6 ty le biet chir cao, nhung phan Idn cac nude chau Phi van dang phai doi mat vdi tinh trang ty le mil chir trong dan cu cao, dien hinh d Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad ty le biet chir Tap chi nghien cim CHAU PHI & TRUING DOING so 06 (58) thang 06/2010 m [...]... kim cuong, dau khi d chau Phi dang la luc hut hap dan ddi vdi nhieu nha dau tu nude ngoai Nhung cac nha dau tu nude ngoai se phai tinh toan cd nen tiep tuc dau tu vao chau Phi hay khong trong dieu kien chi phi danh bdng kim cuong d chau Phi can Sahara hien nay len den 70 USD- 100 USD/1 cara so vdi chi phi chi la 6 USD- 8 USD/1 cara d An Do Nhu vay, de moi truong dau tu d chau Phi ngay cang hap dan va... chau Phi cd du nang luc de thoat khoi doi ngheo Nhu-ng no luc cai each giao due eiia nhieu nude chau Phi van khong mang lai hieu qua Trong khi do, dau tu nude ngoai vao chau Phi chu yeu hi^n nay nam trong cac nganh khai thac tai nguyen Neu khong cd nang luc tiep thu su chuyen giao cong nghe, nang cao trinh do dan tri va dao tao ky nang, thi mgt khi nguon tai nguyen bi khai thac can kiet, chau Phi se... cara d An Do Nhu vay, de moi truong dau tu d chau Phi ngay cang hap dan va mang tinh ben vung hon, chinh phii eac nude chau Phi cd rat nhieu viec phai lam 3 Vien trd nu'dc ngoai d chau Phi nam 2009 Nhiing kho khan do khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau mang lai khien nhieu doi tac chii chot cua chau Phi cd xu hudng eat giam vien tro cho khu virc nay trong nam 2009 Dien hinh la su cat giam vien tro cua nhom... ngoai Thwang mai, dau tWva vien trcf hang nam cho chau Phi tinh den nam 2010 j Mgt so nude nhu My va EU da c£im ket tang j chi tieu ngan sach quoc gia de vien trg chg I chau Phi Tuy nhien, trong nam 2009, dg nhirng khd khan ve kinh te trgng nude, mgt so nude da chinh thirc cat giam vien trg cho chau Phi Cu the la G8 cam ket vien trg chg j chau Phi khoang 8,8 ty USD/nam, nhung trong nam 2009 so tien... nude chau Phi Ngan hang Phat tnen chau Phi (AfDB) vao thang 3 nam 2009 da de ra 4 sang kien khac phuc khung hoang, bao gom: Sang kien tao dieu kipn thuc hien tinh thanh khoan (ELF) tri gia 1,5 ty USD; Sang kien tai chinh thuong mai (TFI) tn gia 1 ty USD, He thong chuyen giao nhanh nguon quy phat trien chau Phi cho cac nude de bi ton thuang; Sang kien ho trg tu van chinh sach Cac nude chau Phi dugc hudng... nude chau Phi Tap chi nghien cim CHAU PHI & TRUING DOING so 06 (58) thang 06/2010 Thu'ang mai, dau tu' va vien tra Nguyen V§n Dan-Nguyin Ngpc Trf khac phuc khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau, d^c biet hudng vao muc tieu giam ngheo, ho trg eg sd h^ tang, ho tro ngan sach boi thuong nhurng mat mat cua dong von dau tu tu nhan Nhirng nude dugc hudng Igi tir chinh sach nay ciia WB nam 2009 la Nam Phi, Mauritius,... cac nude dang phat trien phai phii hop vdi tac dgng thuc te cua khung hoang kinh te" G8 cam ket se huy dgng 20 ty USD trong vong 3 nam de ho trg phat trien nong nghiep, uu tien trude het la vien trg luong thuc nhan dao va khan cap cho eac nude dang phat trien, chu yeu hudng ve chau Phi Nam 2009 ciing chiing kien nhirng no luc vien trg cua cac to chirc da phuong cho chau Phi, trong do phai ke den vai... vay cua IMF doi vdi chau Phi (ty USD) Ngudn: MF 2009 Khgng giong nhu WB va AfDB gianh nhirng khoan quy cho cac du an phat tnen dac biet, Quy Tien te Quoc te IMF da cung cap cac khoan vay doi vdi eac nude khong the dap irng dugc can can thanh toan quoc te, cung nhu khong the vay tien tir eac chinh phii khac de khac phuc khung hoang.Trong nam 2009, IMF cung tang cudng ho trg chau Phi khac phuc khiing hoang... nhirng no luc vien trg cua cac to chirc da phuong cho chau Phi, trong do phai ke den vai tro cua Ngan hang The gidi, Quy Tien te Quoc te, Ngan hang Phat trien chau Phi Cac to chirc nay da tai eg cau cac khgang vay ng cii, tiep tuc trg giup chau Phi cac khoan vay mdi de khac phuc khung hoang Ngan hang The gidi da thue hien "Chinh sach ho trg con duong nhanh de khac phuc khimg hoang tai chinh", theo do WB... Mauritius, Cgng hoa Dan chii Congo, Comoros, Ghana, Kenya, Zambia Them vao do, 15 nude chau Phi khac cung duoc hudng Igi ich tir Quy phat trien nganh tu nhan do WB de xuat trong nam vdi tong tri gia 32 ty USD cho giai doan 2009-2011 Trong ITnh vuc phat trien nong nghiep, WB nam 2009 ho trg cho cac nude chau Phi vay 1 ty USD (so vdi 800 trieu USD nam 2008) Trong ITnh vuc phat trien co sd ha tang, WB . chau Phi khac chiem 33,8%i von FDI vao chau Phi. Trong quy 1 nam 2009, cac nugc chau Phi tiep nhan vgn FDI lofn nhat vao chau Phi la Ai Cap (1,211 ty USD), tiep do la Nam Phi . each dia ly, chi phi kinh doanh cao va nhii:ng rui ro trong kinh doanh. Tinh theo khu vuc, Bac Phi chiem toi 27% trong tong von FDI vao chau Phi trong nam 2009 va chau Phi can Sahara chiem. tiep tuc dau tu vao chau Phi hay khong trong dieu kien chi phi danh bdng kim cuong d chau Phi can Sahara hien nay len den 70 USD- 100 USD/1 cara so vdi chi phi chi la 6 USD- 8 USD/1